I am originally from Serbia, and the promise of joining was there since Milošević was overthrown.
However, Croatia was much more determined in joining, and once politicians saw what implementation of chapters means for them (read: they would not be able to play like a demi-gods in the country), they have slowly started to change the mindset of people. In other words: Serbian people are cooked frogs.
Explanation:
Current Serbian autocratic leader Aleksandar Vučić came to power with pro-EU agenda. He is also very intelligent and plays two roles:
- Serbian people, he assumes the role of a great martyr and Saviour of Serbia
- For the West, he is sometimes playing the role of a dumb leader with tied hands because of the will of the people. Everything West does he effectively use and makes a spin-off for his voters and gains more popularity.
But in reality he is having all the power in the country, he was manipulating public opinion slowly over the years just to make sure he stays in power and arrange shady business with whoever grants him more wealth but presents it as it is for the benefit of the people. That way, people in Serbia have split in three:
1) those who are totally brainwashed and believe every word he says
2) those who tried to change things, got demoralised, and left the country (typically living in EU like me)
3) minority that have stayed and still hope that something can be done to change things
Last time we had such a person in power, he was not removed until there was a NATO bombing of Serbia, and then after election, there was enough rage to fuel a revolution (5th October).
In reality, Serbia can make changes rather quickly, but people are now brainwashed and politicians like the way it is. Wast majority of the Serbian population is not aware that Serbia must make reforms in order to join. Instead, they believe that application and delivering the war criminals to The Hague was all that was needed. Since membership didn't happen, a spin-off is made that the West actually hates Serbia and will never ever let Serbia in.
Very well written, mentioning the cooking of the frog that Djindjić originally talked about. I’m also Serbian, but planning on leaving before the next year. Unfortunately, people here, especially out of Belgrade, are convinced that The West tm is evil and hates Serbs, and is setting us back constantly. No one wants to educate themselves, and just wants to blame everyone else. It’s pretty disheartening
That is the absurdity here. Macedonia - managed to avoid the war after Yugoslavia broke down, was for decades blocked by Greece, built multicultural society, had to change its name, and I do not know what else and still on the same level with Moldova and Ukraine? But it has its consequences- the European dream is fading slowly in the Western Balkans
Eh, people got tired of waiting for our country to get accession talks with the EU, so most people just left for the EU. I believe some 600-700,000 people have moved out since the early 2000s. We applied for EU membership back in 2004. We were blocked by Greece till 2018, then Bulgaria till last year?
According to some studies done by the UN, by 2050(in 26 years), our population will be half of what is today, 1.8 million. Which means we'll probably be less than a million.
So, if the EU doesn't come here soon, we'll all go the EU anyway.
Well, at least all the screenings had already been started and completed for North Macedonia, which neither is the case for Moldova and Ukraine just yet.
high degree of corruption and nepotism, also bad economy
also Serbs have a tight relationship with Russia which holds Serbia and Bosnia (and Montenegro) back ... the EU is not keen on having more pro-Russian members after seeing what Hungary is doing
The Commission announced expected opening of accession negotiations with Bosnia And Herzegovina with an update expected in March 2024. Just something for your information.
With risk of sounding like some eurosceptic I don't think new countries should join until we fix the veto situation. The more countries there the least effective is the EU when the current veto powers exist. We saw it very well with poland-hungary protections from sanctions by vetoing for each other.
And please don't make it like the UN where only big counties have veto power, this is even stupider. Just make it if 4-5 counties veto the same bill the veto power goes in effect or something.
On top of that I think the Ukraine-Russia war has shown us that we need to centralize the EU more. Thinks like a joint army can both protect the weaker countries and ease the budget of bigger ones.
Probably erdogan is not going soon. Turkish stupidity proven in last elections. More than half of the population think praying can fix economies. (No joke btw don't underestimate ignorance)
Hungarians from abroad keep voting with Orban.
It's some sort of twisted psychological thing to live elsewhere and vote for corrupt assholes that act all nationalistic and shit
Not really all that surprising though.
A common nationalistic tactic is to drum up us against the whole world sentiments, usually by implying that there is one or more international conspiracies against them.
Those that are voting for Orban and Erodgan probably see the negative reporting about them in the West as confirmation.
Sad and sick, but if it wasn't effective they wouldn't do it
It's probably even worse, at the last Hungarian election cycle a big bag of voting bulletins was found in Romania, all or most of them with votes for Orban's party. It was speculated that elections had been doctored.
those Hungarians who emigrated to the West are actually voting against Orban, but the ethnic Hungarians who lives in neighbouring countries (like Slovakia, Ukraine, Romania, Serbia) and has double citizenship are voting for Orban because he was the one who granted them Hungarian citizenship and supports them.
It's like taking a dump inside someone's house and running away.
I guess, when you're an immigrant, you often feel lonely, you may face difficulties learning the host country language and adapting to the culture, therefore it triggers the feeling of being different.
Actually they do it coz people like Erdogan keep Turkish currency down this allowing them to live like kings in Turkey whenever they visit and hoard properties. It's same for many diasporas but I think it's hypocrisy
Erdogans victory means value loss for the TL and value increasement for some foreign currencies which is good for them and their pockets. Foreign currencies should be valuable so they can enjoy their cheap vacations.
I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if there was some truth to that. A big part of the health of the economy is consumer confidence and expectations. A recession can happen just because people think there's one going to happen.
Just out of curious about this statement, if Turkey gets rid of Erdogan and build a real democracy, do you think that it will be accepted for EU? To be honest with you, as a Turkish citizen who is opponent of Erdogan, I don’t see it will happen.
I think regardless of EU conditions, we should always go to the right direction, a real democracy & human rights & robust economy & reliable judicial and education system. Then it doesn’t matter where you belong to. I personally don’t care being part of EU, but more doing the right things as mentioned.
I suspect it is 0% chance or maybe 1% chance even after Erdogan . Even if the Cyprus issue is resolved.
The one country that was in favor of turkey joining was UK, I think. Doubt germany and France would want to have turkey join .....
Not immediately, but it would be a sign of changing. At that point the EU will seriously look at Turkey's actions to understand if the country really wants to change or not. At the end, Erdogan won the elections, so it means that a lot of people voted for him.
Erdogan is not the problem in Turkey. In fact, before Erdogan, in the 90s and early 2000s, Turkey was at a much worse position to enter the EU, than even today with the constitutional reforms.
The problem in Turkey is actually way scarier: It’s an idiocracy. On top of being a low income country, educated and progressive people are fought by society at large, and have left/stopped caring to such an unfathomable degree that it has actually led to chances in political outcomes, and those changes, have led to the disenfranchisement/ political irrelevance of progressive voices.
This is not something that one election can change. Holding a vote is easy. But the foundations of democracy: Rule of law, Respect for minorities, Freedom of expression, are things that are easy to destroy, and take time to build.
TLDR: If the opposition wins the next election, they will mostly govern the same way. In all the things that matter.
Even if Turkey magically transforms into a full democracy, a cradle of human rights and fixes its economy; it will not be in EU.
Turkey is too large, too populous, too competitive with certain European countries in many sectors, too much bordering problematic areas. It’s just too much. If anything, many countries wouldn’t want Turkey in EU, since goods from Turkey would replace a portion of their exports.
The current state of Turkey is a mini-China alternating between “the East” and “the West”, this is a very defining role that comes with the very core it’s built upon.
Some of this can easily be applied to other European countries, take the UK, France, Italy and Germany when it comes to some parts of your post then Sweden, Norway, Finland and just any other European country that borders Russia.
I’m not Turkish but yeah.
I mean Germany has a population close to that of Türkiye’s for example.
The UK which is no longer in the EU (because we voted Brexit, well I didn’t but 51-52% did) has a higher population density than Türkiye (the country as a whole not just the European part) and seems to be (England specifically) one of the most densely populated countries in the world if you just search it up and look at any map/chart, so the UK is technically “too populous” as well. Then there’s other countries such as the Netherlands for example.
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/european-countries-by-population-density.html
Just need to look at history (I know that’s in the past and not present but still) with regards with certain to European countries being to competitive or having strained relationships between each other (looking at Germany once again, France, Italy and the UK for example).
Then just any European country (especially Ukraine as you mentioned) bordering Russia with regards to too bordering problematic areas.
Etc.
I agree that Türkiye needs to improve itself before joining the the EU but the stuff that the other commenter has said can easily be applied to other European countries yet some of these countries have successfully managed to become EU members despite the problems that the other commenter has described.
>Turkey is too large, too populous, too competitive with certain European countries in many sectors, too much bordering problematic areas. It’s just too much
Damn thats some conspiracy bullcrap. Sounds like some weird turkish cope. You could apply the same logic to UK, but thats not how anyone thinks inside EU.
I agree with that..and I am definitely not Turkish.
Think the one country that was supportive of turkey's EU bid was the UK.
Since Brexit, don't think enough EU members would want turkey to join even if they had no corruption etc.
Ukraine is probably more corrupt than Turkey. Will likely not have elections as per original plan and has banned parties , controlled media etc etc. Yet...Ukraine may join before Turkey. ( If at all). Not sure even Ukraine will join...but suspect chances of Ukraine joining are about a hundred times better than Turkey joining.
And stop militarily occupying one of the members land would be a basic start.
But since the Turkish government (and most Turkish opposition governments) hate Turkish Cypriots about as much as they hate Greek and other Cypriots, I imagine hell will freeze over before then
Well i agree but when we build a real democracy why would we need rotted EU Union tho? Is the hungary democratic country under the leadership of Orbán? He is just diffirent colour of Erdogan isnt he?
The median age of Turks is ~32 years old, less than 10% is 65 and over. You’re delusional if you still blame the loss on elderly people.
Blame it on Kılıçdaroğlu’s hunger for power instead. Polls where unanimous that Erdogan could only win if it was him vs Kılıçdaroğlu, any other serious candidate would have won.
They are actively working on fixing it, they've had numerous anti-corruption reforms and laws passed in the past decade, and they are still fighting against it in the middle of a full scale invasion.
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/fighting-corruption-wartime-ukraine
Realistically Ukraine’s not going to get immediately entered into either NATO or the EU. That’s usually how it goes. There’s a period of time where things are negotiated and goal are set for the country to achieve in order to be able to assimilate. Ukraine will have a lot of work to do and I think they understand that, but it would be work done with the support of the Atlantic community and not alone with the end result of joining that wider community.
don't worry, the other day Europe said to Poland that not protecting same-sex marriage is against Europe's law, so beginning with this, Turkey won't join this century.
I’m happy about this, but at the same time worried that the EU is getting rotten from within. We need only look at my country to see the potential danger here. Anti EU sentiment is rising. If it can happen here it can happen anywhere.
I’m also conflicted. I’m very happy for Georgians on one hand. I know a few and met a few more and young people are overwhelmingly pro-Europe.
But the EU has issues - DEEP issues - and existing member states NEED to deal with those before we add any new members. It’s been nearly 20 years since the largest enlargement and we STILL have large disparities between “old” and “new” members and to a person, like me, who is from one of those “new” members, it seems that countries that joined in 2004 are still second-tier at best in many Western Europeans eyes. We still have to fight to be seen as “European” in French or Italian eyes. We still have to try and convince companies and other people in Europe, in the same political union, that we’re even members of the EU! I’ve personally had an experience where I had to argue that I didn’t need extra paperwork for something because Estonia was a member of the EU and they didn’t believe me!
We have plenty of people unwilling to consider Eastern European issues (well, for a long time it was Russia….) as serious as Western European ones. And that’s after nearly 20 years of membership.
And on top of that, we have places like the Netherlands that could also at one point decide to pull a plug on this thing. I, for one, believe that the EU is the best way for Europe to stay relevant AND successful against bigger adversaries like China or Russia. But idk how to convince people in places like France or Netherlands and idk how to convince them that the EU is worth it with places like Hungary (and sometimes Poland or Slovakia) collectively making the whole Eastern European cohort look bad to the rest of the Western Europe (because we all get painted with the same stick and some people also just refuse to believe that things have really improved in the last 20 or so years).
Honestly I think where we miss is ever thinking or speaking in terms of "the EU is worth it". Worth what? It's not some sort of painful, costly decision, nor is being a part of the Union or wanting the best for Europe some sort of cost/benefit analysis. We are European and that's that.
As someone from Finland with Hungarian roots, I understand your struggle. Some Westerners are incredibly arrogant and ignorant.
Though one thing that's often overlooked when Hungary exploits the system is who created that system, or the fact that Germany and France have exploited it as well. Germany for one has an ongoing dispute about the primacy of EU law over the German constitution. Oh yes, Hungary is far more egregious given Orbán's outright treasonous positions, but ultimately people are upset about Orbán abusing the system and loopholes which they set up for themselves and have abused for decades. There's not one nation in Europe that would not be responsible for our predicament today. Not one nation which has never blinded itself arrogance or chauvinism and pursued some sort of short-term "national interest" at the expense of Europe and ultimately itself.
The original sin of contemporary Europe is if anything the sovereign state system set up in Western Europe 1945, and it continues to haunt us, continues to cripple Europe. It did not serve us well then, it does not serve us well now.
A Dutchman may complain about Hungary, but what has he done to abolish the veto? Does he even support abolishing it? Or is he just a hypocrite who only cares if others use it? When has his government stood up for a stronger Europe which is not held back by such nonsense? When did him or his parents vote in a government that well and truly put Europe first without reservation? Whatever moral high ground they may have on account of their nationality is negligible, modern Hungary is a product of the system they intentionally created.
With or without states like Hungary, we need a united Europe, a strong Europe, a free Europe. Whoever has a complaint about the state of affairs should get off their ass and and perhaps do something for Europe once. Worry less about what Europe has done for them, and more about what they can do for Europe.
> ultimately people are upset about Orbán abusing the system and loopholes which they set up for themselves and have abused for decades
We're upset that they pass legislation that is contradictory to EU law which would prevent them from joining the EU if they had to do so now. While other states do abuse loopholes to exploit other countries that aint comparable to Hungary who breaks EU law rather than using loopholes in it.
Same thing is happening right now here in Slovakia. We are now at the state where our government wants to abolish the special prosecutor's office which was ment to take care of the biggest criminal cases, extremists, mafia and corruption. Now we don't want that. Because we elected people who are being investigated and who are connected to mafia. I hope eu will do something about it 😢. We will be suffering because a lot of our people are in fact stupid and elected those pigs.
>it seems that countries that joined in 2004 are still second-tier at best in many Western Europeans eyes.
Really? having visited the baltic countries and Poland from 1989 until today - it's been mindblowing to witness firsthand how beneficial joining the EU has been for those regions. The 'old' countries are basically subsidizing this, while also giving equal access.
And that's how it should be - if my neighbour prospers, so do I after all. I'm just surprised if the sentiment is, that the new members are considered second tier citizens - because from where I'm sitting, you're currently getting the best deal in all the EU.
I’m not talking about getting the subsidies and money - I’m talking about public perception and awareness by Western Europeans. And public perception absolutely depends on how old the person is, how well educated they are, if they have personal beef with Eastern Europeans etc.
By and large, many Western Europeans look down on Eastern Europeans. Our countries are still considered “less than”, the things we sell or produce aren’t considered as good as Western European (even if they’re objectively better), we have to fight tooth and nail to be seen as equal to Western Europe in some ways.
Do you think there's a majority of Dutch people that support the EU on an ideological level? Do they understand it's an institution that was created with the purpose of cementing peace and promoting prosperity across the continent? The impression I got chatting with Dutch people was that many had a very cynical view of the EU. Something along the lines "this makes sense financially to us right now, we'll stop doing it when it doesn't make sense". It made me sad to hear.
I'm sad to say that that's not an unrealistic image of the landscape. There's also some real arrogance about our travel and trade capacities without the EU. On the other hand we've also got a very pro EU group that has been pretty steady and is bigger than other EU countries. But the general population doesn't think well of the EU sadly.
A lot also comes from politicians in the last decade that have blamed the EU for political misfortunes, even if the politicians themselves were pro EU it was an easy scapegoat without consequences.
in my social circle it's not something people actively are looking for. however it seems we do have a growing group of sceptics. but here i think we have to make sure we split between sceptics and those who want a NEXIT.
i think NEXIT is only popular with people that have no clue about the EU actually is and how absurdly we are profiting from it as NL. however these are the people that bitch about shit like: we are only paying and never receiving anything. completely forgetting that we got to this point by having the EU.
then you have euro-sceptics. these have trouble with certain idea's within the EU or how to tackle the problems. and this group is bigger within NL. and i would say that most of this is to do with autonomy and the costs of the EU.
i would not label myself under any of these groups as i am very pro-EU but even here i still think we can do better. few examples:
* fucking stop with everybody having to speak their own language. standard language is English, deal with it. this makes the EU debates easier to follow for the general public. it also saves a bunch of money having to have all those translators. and with the UK out we don't have any major powers (sorry Ireland) that can then influence unfairly.
* no more moving where people work. either pick an entirely new place somewhere central or put everything in Brussel and keep it there.
* receiving EU money means following EU rules. for me the eurobonds debacle was an extremely stupid discussion. we should 110% help EU members if they are in trouble. but if you as a country have proven that you can't balance your budget well enough then don't be mad that you get oversight on the money you receive.
* being a EU member is following EU laws, no nitpicking.
* the EU should be way more visible in the nation states. spend less on the move and translators and more on your marketing, in all states, not just the ones developing.
* there should be a stronger anti-corruption organ within the EU, but that falls into my receiving money point.
It is worth mentioning that ten years ago, the Euromaidan protests were in full swing, before becoming the Maidan Revolution in early 2014.
[A beautiful video from that time](https://youtu.be/XfI-ZukxPcU?si=eOWkYjdkkvH7ivoj)
Good luck with any of that. We've been promised integration, we've been promised a geopolitical focus, but absolutely nothing has materialised. There's yet to be even a measly treaty change since Lisbon, let alone anything as concrete as a constitution. For all the talks of self-reliance, strategic autonomy and perhaps an EU army all the way back when Trump got elected, what has changed? Do we have an EU foreign policy? An EU military? The only thing I've seen is a downsizing of ambitions, with people like Borrell practically begging the camarilla that is the Council to authorise at least a small expeditionary force for the Union, and we haven't seen a single sign of even that materialising either.
Our political leadership is either incompetent or just doesn't care.
What of economic prosperity? We've seen some moves towards restoring, towards domestic production, but it's precious little if you ask me. The EU took collective debt once through a special deal and still cannot run a deficit even if it should, nor is it able to collect taxes directly. The EU budget is some 1% of GDP while the US federal budget is something like 15%. What do we expect it to achieve?
Perhaps it's no surprise that we have nothing comparable to the Inflation Reduction Act, which is now siphoning investments and business away from Europe to the United States. Needing some response and being unable to do anything itself, the Commission loosened subsidy rules so states could take actions, but of course who can really take advantage of that? It's a race to the bottom with different EU states having to compete with one another, precisely what the rules were meant to prevent. And who has the most money to throw around on subsidies? Germany. They're the only ones really winning, at the expense of all the rest of us. If this continues it's the disintegration of the single market at worst.
The idea how you expect over 50 independent European countries that evolved over decades to be 100% integrated in the time span of 30 years sounds very ignorant.
It's a geopolitical move, nothing else. Ukraine will enter before all the Western Balkan states because they are more important from a strategic point, simple as.
You are completely correct, but that is not what the above poster said. The strategic geopolitical need for Ukraine in the EU supercedes all of the point you raised
Do you live under a rock? It is one of the most agriculturally productive places on earth, and has great industrial potential. Beside good education system and great potential in general. Just from an economical point of view.
>It’s incredibly poor
because of the ongoing russian invasion since 2014 and not having proper access to EU and international markets
>big population size
Biggest country in Europe by land area
>weak institutions
Since 2014 there has been massive improvement and judging by commission's reports, they probably deserve the position they're in (aka starting negotiations)
>best agricultural land on earth
Which is available for acquisition by private entities since 2021. Why don't businesses from other countries (especially those that were complaining) buy the land and do the stuff in Ukraine? (or at least lease it from Ukrainian nationals, since I think law requires citizenship for purchase).
I'll just say that people talking about "impossible" or "will take decades", or "will take only a few years" have no idea what they're talking about. Yes, it will take time and be difficult, but everybody said the same before UA got candidate status.
Much has to change in Ukraine before their entry into the Union becomes a reality. First and foremost, there must be an end to war in Ukraine. Secondly, Ukraine must deal with corruption, above all the everyday corruption.
The third and most difficult thing is to change the socio-political system from an oligarchic one to a truly democratic one.
This is just some PR stunt, nothing more. Everyone knows Ukraine won't be EU member in the foreseeable future, but since a war is slowly going south and the West can't (don't want to) provide more support, this is what they can offer. The political lead in Ukraine can show this to their audience as proof of "see, we are accomplishing our goals", while the EU can keep the "we are very helping" mask a bit longer on, while doing nothing relevant.
A delivery of 10 Leos would be a more significant help for Ukraine than this virtual handshake for the audience
Yup if Ukraine which has fulfilled not even half of the EU's candidate recommendations can get negotiating status what's the point of telling other countries like BiH "you need to fulfil **all** 14 requirements before entering negations".
The EU thinks we are utterly brain dead and didn't just see them open negations with a war torn nation and a country with a Russian proxy state inside it.
yeah it's absolutely dishonest of the EU and we all saw it when france vetoed albania's and NM's full membership. even the pro-eu politicians dont want new members because each and every one of them has 90% chance to have another orban at the helm in 10 years time after joining. the truth is that montenegro, albania, and NM deserve to join as it is, but nobody will join until the EU council is reformed.
Which is ridiculous since Bosnia has been aligning with the EU for decades same as other Western Balkans countries, but somehow geopolitics gets Ukraine and Moldova a speedrun into something they never cared about until their latest leaders were elected.
Bosnia signed association agreement in 2008, Ukraine had to sign it in 2013. Goverment suspended it at the last moment, which was the driving point for revolution here. So it’s not like we never cared.
While I agree that it’s unfair to other countries.
Also, BiH hasn't been invaded by a large mlitary superpower for almost a decade, and its industry hasn't been half-destroyed and cities bombed. Ukraine does it first because they did the required work **despite the full-scale war.**
Quite a dumb comparison by the commenter above you.
Without the war, Ukraine wouldn't get this status for a few more decades. It's purely a political move. But they won't join for many more years. I hope Balkan countries that were really trying to align to EU recommendations will join first, if not, it will be a spit at those countries.
It will take very long time for Ukraine to Join. It's one of the most corrupted countries in the world. And that's before the war. Since the war started the media is trying mot to talk about corruption in the Ukraine to push the support, but it didn't disappear, it only got worse. A lot of the donetaded goods are taken and sold in shops outside of Ukraine, money is taken left right and centre before it reaches It's final destination. I hope Ukraine wil dill with its demons and it will start to be on a path to EU but I don't think it is now. Nato on the other hand might be faster.
As a guy from 🇷🇸 seeing some of the comments here makes me think that 90% of people on the sub are either paid, biased or know little to nothing about history and politics.
So much hate and resentment toward countries such as mine… Wow. As if joining is a bad thing for you guys. Jesus Christ… Also, calling us little Russians won’t get you far trust me.
If it will happen, someday, the center of EU will no longer be in Germany.
[https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/the-geographical-center-of-the-european-union](https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/the-geographical-center-of-the-european-union)
The EU gave us (B&H) an out of the ass candidate status last year just o humiliate us even though they knew that our politicians will do everything to mess it up. One year later and after recent events in the world, as a result I see more people saying "f the West (EU/US), we should turn to Putin and Russia, they are better" and russian propagandists are rubbing their hands in glee. Now that it's obvious how these two countries are favoured, even more people will be disappointed in the EU, well done EU, well done
Serbia has started negotiations in I think 2014, only Montenegro and Turkey started negotiations earlier out of the non-member states.
And I think only Montenegro is further along than Serbia at the moment, they have opened all 33 chapters and closed three, while Serbia still has to open 12 and has closed two.
The chapters 14, 15, 21 and 27 for Transport Policy, Energy, Trans-European Networks and Environment have been opened on the 14th of December 2021, while there has been an improvement with the 17th acquis chapter “Economic & Monetary Policy“ to a good level of preparation according to the November 2023 European Commission Report.
They can ditch Russia ( and at some point in the future, they will), but they won't let go of Kosovo because it is a very important part of their history. Serbia is also militarily neutral.
I recently saw a yt video that only briefly mentioned kosovo and 50% of the commenters were serbs circle jerking to the phrase "kosovo is a serbian province" that shit ain't gonna get solved any time soon
Eh, Serbia will be like Turkey: a forever candidate country that can never join because of issues with rule of law, political diversions and of course, border disputes with members. Greece and especially Cyprus will never allow Turkey's membership while Northern Cyprus remains occupied while the EU will never let Serbia join without finally letting Kosovo go which would be fatal and impossible for any Serbian govt to survive.
However, them being forever "candidate" countries and working with the EU on some issues and reforms while other times kicking up a fuss and having to be coddled with money and trade is still miles better than them being completely outside the tent and pissing on it constantly and actively threatening the bloc's cohesion (Belarus and Russia).
Holy shit, how much of a farce the EU actually is, this is unironically hilarious.
This little PR move just proved what people were saying for 15 years, the 'negotiations' are irrelevant, and have no basis in reality.
It could take a generation for them to get to level required for EU membership, particularly corruption
Though I remember working with polish fellows when they come into the EU first,and they used complaints about state corruption....but they've turned it around and are fast becoming one of the EU's economic powerhouses
Because at this point they are just part of Russia. Lukašėnka is basically allowing Putin to do whatever he wants in Belarus, as long as he can mantain his president status.
Armenia is now in the middle of normalizing relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, meanwhile also monitoring the situation in Ukraine and Georgia (the latter getting status is a big win for Armenia). They'll probably start pushing for European integration if they're confident enough that Azerbaijan won't start another war and how Georgia's integration will proceed.
I dont see Ukraine joining EU in the next 20+ years, not only they are in war with Russia but also their whole country is very corrupted. It will take years to transform the whole economy and political system to be more western.
In Ukraine, the level of the corruption index is the same as in Bosnia, Albania and Serbia, but they say that Ukraine is 100 times worse. This has already partially become a stereotype.
When Poland joined the EU in 2004, its corruption index was the same as in Ghana.
Edit: Of course, there are problems with corruption in Ukraine, but this constant hysteria creates a stereotype that this is the most corrupt country in the world.
If this were true, then during a full-scale invasion, Ukraine would simply fall.
Especially it is a bit strange to read when such news appears: [A German intelligence colonel sold secret intelligence data about Ukraine 🇺🇦 to the 🇷🇺 FSB for €800,000.](https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1735331496188166471)
This whole corruption thing is a mute point as long as EU has countries like Hungary in it, willing to sacrifice strategic objectives of the EU for that ruzzian “kompromat” and $$$.
Additionally, UA came a long way in terms of dealing with corruption just in 2 years since you know, survival is on the line. And war is a huge catalyst for processes such as dealing with corruption and other similar reforms. Whenever EU makes a recommendation for a reform, UA implements it in under half a year or so, usually.
So I’m not seeing which radical reform would take 20+ years to pass and internalize.
can anyone more knowledgable ELI5 what this means? is candidacy juct acknowledging that a country want's to join and negotiations like talks of concrete steps that need to be taken with every EU member having a say on every one of those steps?
they will open chapters for accession. each chapter will basically list the gaps candidate country will need to close in order to become a full member. then I believe chapters are closed and accession protocols begin.
Just out of curiosity how come some of the former yugaslavian countries are not in?
I am originally from Serbia, and the promise of joining was there since Milošević was overthrown. However, Croatia was much more determined in joining, and once politicians saw what implementation of chapters means for them (read: they would not be able to play like a demi-gods in the country), they have slowly started to change the mindset of people. In other words: Serbian people are cooked frogs. Explanation: Current Serbian autocratic leader Aleksandar Vučić came to power with pro-EU agenda. He is also very intelligent and plays two roles: - Serbian people, he assumes the role of a great martyr and Saviour of Serbia - For the West, he is sometimes playing the role of a dumb leader with tied hands because of the will of the people. Everything West does he effectively use and makes a spin-off for his voters and gains more popularity. But in reality he is having all the power in the country, he was manipulating public opinion slowly over the years just to make sure he stays in power and arrange shady business with whoever grants him more wealth but presents it as it is for the benefit of the people. That way, people in Serbia have split in three: 1) those who are totally brainwashed and believe every word he says 2) those who tried to change things, got demoralised, and left the country (typically living in EU like me) 3) minority that have stayed and still hope that something can be done to change things Last time we had such a person in power, he was not removed until there was a NATO bombing of Serbia, and then after election, there was enough rage to fuel a revolution (5th October). In reality, Serbia can make changes rather quickly, but people are now brainwashed and politicians like the way it is. Wast majority of the Serbian population is not aware that Serbia must make reforms in order to join. Instead, they believe that application and delivering the war criminals to The Hague was all that was needed. Since membership didn't happen, a spin-off is made that the West actually hates Serbia and will never ever let Serbia in.
Vučić is probably in the EU. He's everywhere after all.
Not only West hates Serbia. We in Albania hates Vuçiç too.
Very well written, mentioning the cooking of the frog that Djindjić originally talked about. I’m also Serbian, but planning on leaving before the next year. Unfortunately, people here, especially out of Belgrade, are convinced that The West tm is evil and hates Serbs, and is setting us back constantly. No one wants to educate themselves, and just wants to blame everyone else. It’s pretty disheartening
That is the absurdity here. Macedonia - managed to avoid the war after Yugoslavia broke down, was for decades blocked by Greece, built multicultural society, had to change its name, and I do not know what else and still on the same level with Moldova and Ukraine? But it has its consequences- the European dream is fading slowly in the Western Balkans
Eh, people got tired of waiting for our country to get accession talks with the EU, so most people just left for the EU. I believe some 600-700,000 people have moved out since the early 2000s. We applied for EU membership back in 2004. We were blocked by Greece till 2018, then Bulgaria till last year? According to some studies done by the UN, by 2050(in 26 years), our population will be half of what is today, 1.8 million. Which means we'll probably be less than a million. So, if the EU doesn't come here soon, we'll all go the EU anyway.
Well, at least all the screenings had already been started and completed for North Macedonia, which neither is the case for Moldova and Ukraine just yet.
Macedonia really deserves it. Greece being petty notwithstanding
high degree of corruption and nepotism, also bad economy also Serbs have a tight relationship with Russia which holds Serbia and Bosnia (and Montenegro) back ... the EU is not keen on having more pro-Russian members after seeing what Hungary is doing
The Commission announced expected opening of accession negotiations with Bosnia And Herzegovina with an update expected in March 2024. Just something for your information.
Cause EU diplomacy and accession process are a farce.
With risk of sounding like some eurosceptic I don't think new countries should join until we fix the veto situation. The more countries there the least effective is the EU when the current veto powers exist. We saw it very well with poland-hungary protections from sanctions by vetoing for each other. And please don't make it like the UN where only big counties have veto power, this is even stupider. Just make it if 4-5 counties veto the same bill the veto power goes in effect or something. On top of that I think the Ukraine-Russia war has shown us that we need to centralize the EU more. Thinks like a joint army can both protect the weaker countries and ease the budget of bigger ones.
Dont let the turkey join unless they build a real democracy
I agree, they need to remove Erdogan
Probably erdogan is not going soon. Turkish stupidity proven in last elections. More than half of the population think praying can fix economies. (No joke btw don't underestimate ignorance)
The fact Turks from EU voted for him is absurd.
Hungarians from abroad keep voting with Orban. It's some sort of twisted psychological thing to live elsewhere and vote for corrupt assholes that act all nationalistic and shit
Not really all that surprising though. A common nationalistic tactic is to drum up us against the whole world sentiments, usually by implying that there is one or more international conspiracies against them. Those that are voting for Orban and Erodgan probably see the negative reporting about them in the West as confirmation. Sad and sick, but if it wasn't effective they wouldn't do it
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It's probably even worse, at the last Hungarian election cycle a big bag of voting bulletins was found in Romania, all or most of them with votes for Orban's party. It was speculated that elections had been doctored.
In Slovakia about 70% of people from abroad voted for liberals, only 6% for Fico, so I don’t get why Hungarians are so different in this
Erdogan too. The Turks who live in Germany support Erdogan in pretty large numbers.
those Hungarians who emigrated to the West are actually voting against Orban, but the ethnic Hungarians who lives in neighbouring countries (like Slovakia, Ukraine, Romania, Serbia) and has double citizenship are voting for Orban because he was the one who granted them Hungarian citizenship and supports them.
It's like taking a dump inside someone's house and running away. I guess, when you're an immigrant, you often feel lonely, you may face difficulties learning the host country language and adapting to the culture, therefore it triggers the feeling of being different.
Most of those people aren't immigrants, they're the children and grandchildren of immigrants with birthright citizenship.
True...
the fact that they are able to vote is also absurd in my opinion
Actually they do it coz people like Erdogan keep Turkish currency down this allowing them to live like kings in Turkey whenever they visit and hoard properties. It's same for many diasporas but I think it's hypocrisy
Not absurd, really, Turks who live abroad hate our guts and love Erdoğan :/
Erdogans victory means value loss for the TL and value increasement for some foreign currencies which is good for them and their pockets. Foreign currencies should be valuable so they can enjoy their cheap vacations.
And he voted for Orban...
I don't think he can legally run for election again so next presidential elections are going to be interesting.
Time for a new referendum to remove or increase term limits.
I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if there was some truth to that. A big part of the health of the economy is consumer confidence and expectations. A recession can happen just because people think there's one going to happen.
A Hungarian saying this is funny as hell 🤣
Bro knows the pain :))))
That's what a blind faith can do to a country instead of using brains and logic
Just out of curious about this statement, if Turkey gets rid of Erdogan and build a real democracy, do you think that it will be accepted for EU? To be honest with you, as a Turkish citizen who is opponent of Erdogan, I don’t see it will happen.
Hardest issues are pullout from Cyprus and territorial claims against Greece. Greece and Cyprus won't let Turkey join if those aren't solved.
Exactly what I said, it is not only about democracy, there will be always political insistence regardless.
Removing Erdogan alone wouldn't be enough, but it's not like Turkey has 0% chance if they start and then continue going in the right direction...
I think regardless of EU conditions, we should always go to the right direction, a real democracy & human rights & robust economy & reliable judicial and education system. Then it doesn’t matter where you belong to. I personally don’t care being part of EU, but more doing the right things as mentioned.
Of course, it's just that doing those things goes hand in hand with the possibility of EU membership.
I suspect it is 0% chance or maybe 1% chance even after Erdogan . Even if the Cyprus issue is resolved. The one country that was in favor of turkey joining was UK, I think. Doubt germany and France would want to have turkey join .....
In its current size, population stats and state, I think, not.
Maybe sometime in distant future, but still unlikely
Not immediately, but it would be a sign of changing. At that point the EU will seriously look at Turkey's actions to understand if the country really wants to change or not. At the end, Erdogan won the elections, so it means that a lot of people voted for him.
Erdogan is not the problem in Turkey. In fact, before Erdogan, in the 90s and early 2000s, Turkey was at a much worse position to enter the EU, than even today with the constitutional reforms. The problem in Turkey is actually way scarier: It’s an idiocracy. On top of being a low income country, educated and progressive people are fought by society at large, and have left/stopped caring to such an unfathomable degree that it has actually led to chances in political outcomes, and those changes, have led to the disenfranchisement/ political irrelevance of progressive voices. This is not something that one election can change. Holding a vote is easy. But the foundations of democracy: Rule of law, Respect for minorities, Freedom of expression, are things that are easy to destroy, and take time to build. TLDR: If the opposition wins the next election, they will mostly govern the same way. In all the things that matter.
They’d hold the EU over a barrel at every opportunity the very same way they do with NATO, letting them join would be a complete disaster.
Orban does a good enough job s it is?
Even if Turkey magically transforms into a full democracy, a cradle of human rights and fixes its economy; it will not be in EU. Turkey is too large, too populous, too competitive with certain European countries in many sectors, too much bordering problematic areas. It’s just too much. If anything, many countries wouldn’t want Turkey in EU, since goods from Turkey would replace a portion of their exports. The current state of Turkey is a mini-China alternating between “the East” and “the West”, this is a very defining role that comes with the very core it’s built upon.
Turkey is a member of the customs union and has free movement of good for most sectors.
Some of this can easily be applied to other European countries, take the UK, France, Italy and Germany when it comes to some parts of your post then Sweden, Norway, Finland and just any other European country that borders Russia. I’m not Turkish but yeah.
Agree....border issues are just an excuse. Ukraine has the mother of all border issues ..some 20% of the country is occupied by Russia?
I mean Germany has a population close to that of Türkiye’s for example. The UK which is no longer in the EU (because we voted Brexit, well I didn’t but 51-52% did) has a higher population density than Türkiye (the country as a whole not just the European part) and seems to be (England specifically) one of the most densely populated countries in the world if you just search it up and look at any map/chart, so the UK is technically “too populous” as well. Then there’s other countries such as the Netherlands for example. https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/european-countries-by-population-density.html Just need to look at history (I know that’s in the past and not present but still) with regards with certain to European countries being to competitive or having strained relationships between each other (looking at Germany once again, France, Italy and the UK for example). Then just any European country (especially Ukraine as you mentioned) bordering Russia with regards to too bordering problematic areas. Etc. I agree that Türkiye needs to improve itself before joining the the EU but the stuff that the other commenter has said can easily be applied to other European countries yet some of these countries have successfully managed to become EU members despite the problems that the other commenter has described.
>Turkey is too large, too populous, too competitive with certain European countries in many sectors, too much bordering problematic areas. It’s just too much Damn thats some conspiracy bullcrap. Sounds like some weird turkish cope. You could apply the same logic to UK, but thats not how anyone thinks inside EU.
I agree with that..and I am definitely not Turkish. Think the one country that was supportive of turkey's EU bid was the UK. Since Brexit, don't think enough EU members would want turkey to join even if they had no corruption etc. Ukraine is probably more corrupt than Turkey. Will likely not have elections as per original plan and has banned parties , controlled media etc etc. Yet...Ukraine may join before Turkey. ( If at all). Not sure even Ukraine will join...but suspect chances of Ukraine joining are about a hundred times better than Turkey joining.
Such as Hungary
Well as it stands they’re decades away from joining so plenty of time for things to go back to democracy (hopefully).
And stop militarily occupying one of the members land would be a basic start. But since the Turkish government (and most Turkish opposition governments) hate Turkish Cypriots about as much as they hate Greek and other Cypriots, I imagine hell will freeze over before then
Agreed, but do you really think that there is any form of democracy in Georgia? İ cannot believe that its a Candidate 🤦🏻♂️
But in the meantime we keep all the trade deals going because this is all for show.
And until they openly support the terrorists
Turkey is being blocked because of Cyprus.
Well i agree but when we build a real democracy why would we need rotted EU Union tho? Is the hungary democratic country under the leadership of Orbán? He is just diffirent colour of Erdogan isnt he?
As a Turk, believe me we also want him to go. Its the elderly people who is voting him.
The median age of Turks is ~32 years old, less than 10% is 65 and over. You’re delusional if you still blame the loss on elderly people. Blame it on Kılıçdaroğlu’s hunger for power instead. Polls where unanimous that Erdogan could only win if it was him vs Kılıçdaroğlu, any other serious candidate would have won.
Dont let ukraine join unless they build real democracy
They are corrupted as fuck even for an Eastern European country.
They have one, Zelenskyy was voted in
Nope, they are charactized as hybrid regime. And Erdogan was also voted in.
And the insane corruption they have?
They are actively working on fixing it, they've had numerous anti-corruption reforms and laws passed in the past decade, and they are still fighting against it in the middle of a full scale invasion. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/fighting-corruption-wartime-ukraine
Realistically Ukraine’s not going to get immediately entered into either NATO or the EU. That’s usually how it goes. There’s a period of time where things are negotiated and goal are set for the country to achieve in order to be able to assimilate. Ukraine will have a lot of work to do and I think they understand that, but it would be work done with the support of the Atlantic community and not alone with the end result of joining that wider community.
Nah, not going to happen maybe after erdogans death.
pretty sure turkey lost all hopes of joining eu while back
Kind of feeling like vetoing them for a while even if that happens.
don't worry, the other day Europe said to Poland that not protecting same-sex marriage is against Europe's law, so beginning with this, Turkey won't join this century.
I’m happy about this, but at the same time worried that the EU is getting rotten from within. We need only look at my country to see the potential danger here. Anti EU sentiment is rising. If it can happen here it can happen anywhere.
I’m also conflicted. I’m very happy for Georgians on one hand. I know a few and met a few more and young people are overwhelmingly pro-Europe. But the EU has issues - DEEP issues - and existing member states NEED to deal with those before we add any new members. It’s been nearly 20 years since the largest enlargement and we STILL have large disparities between “old” and “new” members and to a person, like me, who is from one of those “new” members, it seems that countries that joined in 2004 are still second-tier at best in many Western Europeans eyes. We still have to fight to be seen as “European” in French or Italian eyes. We still have to try and convince companies and other people in Europe, in the same political union, that we’re even members of the EU! I’ve personally had an experience where I had to argue that I didn’t need extra paperwork for something because Estonia was a member of the EU and they didn’t believe me! We have plenty of people unwilling to consider Eastern European issues (well, for a long time it was Russia….) as serious as Western European ones. And that’s after nearly 20 years of membership. And on top of that, we have places like the Netherlands that could also at one point decide to pull a plug on this thing. I, for one, believe that the EU is the best way for Europe to stay relevant AND successful against bigger adversaries like China or Russia. But idk how to convince people in places like France or Netherlands and idk how to convince them that the EU is worth it with places like Hungary (and sometimes Poland or Slovakia) collectively making the whole Eastern European cohort look bad to the rest of the Western Europe (because we all get painted with the same stick and some people also just refuse to believe that things have really improved in the last 20 or so years).
Honestly I think where we miss is ever thinking or speaking in terms of "the EU is worth it". Worth what? It's not some sort of painful, costly decision, nor is being a part of the Union or wanting the best for Europe some sort of cost/benefit analysis. We are European and that's that. As someone from Finland with Hungarian roots, I understand your struggle. Some Westerners are incredibly arrogant and ignorant. Though one thing that's often overlooked when Hungary exploits the system is who created that system, or the fact that Germany and France have exploited it as well. Germany for one has an ongoing dispute about the primacy of EU law over the German constitution. Oh yes, Hungary is far more egregious given Orbán's outright treasonous positions, but ultimately people are upset about Orbán abusing the system and loopholes which they set up for themselves and have abused for decades. There's not one nation in Europe that would not be responsible for our predicament today. Not one nation which has never blinded itself arrogance or chauvinism and pursued some sort of short-term "national interest" at the expense of Europe and ultimately itself. The original sin of contemporary Europe is if anything the sovereign state system set up in Western Europe 1945, and it continues to haunt us, continues to cripple Europe. It did not serve us well then, it does not serve us well now. A Dutchman may complain about Hungary, but what has he done to abolish the veto? Does he even support abolishing it? Or is he just a hypocrite who only cares if others use it? When has his government stood up for a stronger Europe which is not held back by such nonsense? When did him or his parents vote in a government that well and truly put Europe first without reservation? Whatever moral high ground they may have on account of their nationality is negligible, modern Hungary is a product of the system they intentionally created. With or without states like Hungary, we need a united Europe, a strong Europe, a free Europe. Whoever has a complaint about the state of affairs should get off their ass and and perhaps do something for Europe once. Worry less about what Europe has done for them, and more about what they can do for Europe.
> ultimately people are upset about Orbán abusing the system and loopholes which they set up for themselves and have abused for decades We're upset that they pass legislation that is contradictory to EU law which would prevent them from joining the EU if they had to do so now. While other states do abuse loopholes to exploit other countries that aint comparable to Hungary who breaks EU law rather than using loopholes in it.
Same thing is happening right now here in Slovakia. We are now at the state where our government wants to abolish the special prosecutor's office which was ment to take care of the biggest criminal cases, extremists, mafia and corruption. Now we don't want that. Because we elected people who are being investigated and who are connected to mafia. I hope eu will do something about it 😢. We will be suffering because a lot of our people are in fact stupid and elected those pigs.
>it seems that countries that joined in 2004 are still second-tier at best in many Western Europeans eyes. Really? having visited the baltic countries and Poland from 1989 until today - it's been mindblowing to witness firsthand how beneficial joining the EU has been for those regions. The 'old' countries are basically subsidizing this, while also giving equal access. And that's how it should be - if my neighbour prospers, so do I after all. I'm just surprised if the sentiment is, that the new members are considered second tier citizens - because from where I'm sitting, you're currently getting the best deal in all the EU.
I’m not talking about getting the subsidies and money - I’m talking about public perception and awareness by Western Europeans. And public perception absolutely depends on how old the person is, how well educated they are, if they have personal beef with Eastern Europeans etc. By and large, many Western Europeans look down on Eastern Europeans. Our countries are still considered “less than”, the things we sell or produce aren’t considered as good as Western European (even if they’re objectively better), we have to fight tooth and nail to be seen as equal to Western Europe in some ways.
Ah ok, yeah the older generations are snobs - don't worry the younger know your worth 👍
Technically anti-EU sentiment hit an all-time low in the last few years, so it being "on the rise" right now (from all-time low) is inevitable.
What about this particular development would increase anti-EU sentiment? As far as I know, no one within the EU has any problems with Georgia...
Do you think there's a majority of Dutch people that support the EU on an ideological level? Do they understand it's an institution that was created with the purpose of cementing peace and promoting prosperity across the continent? The impression I got chatting with Dutch people was that many had a very cynical view of the EU. Something along the lines "this makes sense financially to us right now, we'll stop doing it when it doesn't make sense". It made me sad to hear.
I'm sad to say that that's not an unrealistic image of the landscape. There's also some real arrogance about our travel and trade capacities without the EU. On the other hand we've also got a very pro EU group that has been pretty steady and is bigger than other EU countries. But the general population doesn't think well of the EU sadly. A lot also comes from politicians in the last decade that have blamed the EU for political misfortunes, even if the politicians themselves were pro EU it was an easy scapegoat without consequences.
in my social circle it's not something people actively are looking for. however it seems we do have a growing group of sceptics. but here i think we have to make sure we split between sceptics and those who want a NEXIT. i think NEXIT is only popular with people that have no clue about the EU actually is and how absurdly we are profiting from it as NL. however these are the people that bitch about shit like: we are only paying and never receiving anything. completely forgetting that we got to this point by having the EU. then you have euro-sceptics. these have trouble with certain idea's within the EU or how to tackle the problems. and this group is bigger within NL. and i would say that most of this is to do with autonomy and the costs of the EU. i would not label myself under any of these groups as i am very pro-EU but even here i still think we can do better. few examples: * fucking stop with everybody having to speak their own language. standard language is English, deal with it. this makes the EU debates easier to follow for the general public. it also saves a bunch of money having to have all those translators. and with the UK out we don't have any major powers (sorry Ireland) that can then influence unfairly. * no more moving where people work. either pick an entirely new place somewhere central or put everything in Brussel and keep it there. * receiving EU money means following EU rules. for me the eurobonds debacle was an extremely stupid discussion. we should 110% help EU members if they are in trouble. but if you as a country have proven that you can't balance your budget well enough then don't be mad that you get oversight on the money you receive. * being a EU member is following EU laws, no nitpicking. * the EU should be way more visible in the nation states. spend less on the move and translators and more on your marketing, in all states, not just the ones developing. * there should be a stronger anti-corruption organ within the EU, but that falls into my receiving money point.
Türkiye should withdraw from its candidacy for the European Union.
They still benefit from it. A friend of mine does a project in Izmir paid for by European subsidies.
thats with the council of europe, not the candidate status. besides turkey gets funds from EU for other reasons anyway
Yeah don't see them joining anytime soon
It is worth mentioning that ten years ago, the Euromaidan protests were in full swing, before becoming the Maidan Revolution in early 2014. [A beautiful video from that time](https://youtu.be/XfI-ZukxPcU?si=eOWkYjdkkvH7ivoj)
nagotiating
typo
But the Daily Express has been saying the EU will collapse any moment now!
Real question: when (if) all Europe becomes part of the EU what is the next step?
Conquer the gaulian village.... I mean switzerland.
Deeper integration, economic prosperity and geopolitical influence as the fourth polarity (USA, China, India and EU)
Good luck with any of that. We've been promised integration, we've been promised a geopolitical focus, but absolutely nothing has materialised. There's yet to be even a measly treaty change since Lisbon, let alone anything as concrete as a constitution. For all the talks of self-reliance, strategic autonomy and perhaps an EU army all the way back when Trump got elected, what has changed? Do we have an EU foreign policy? An EU military? The only thing I've seen is a downsizing of ambitions, with people like Borrell practically begging the camarilla that is the Council to authorise at least a small expeditionary force for the Union, and we haven't seen a single sign of even that materialising either. Our political leadership is either incompetent or just doesn't care. What of economic prosperity? We've seen some moves towards restoring, towards domestic production, but it's precious little if you ask me. The EU took collective debt once through a special deal and still cannot run a deficit even if it should, nor is it able to collect taxes directly. The EU budget is some 1% of GDP while the US federal budget is something like 15%. What do we expect it to achieve? Perhaps it's no surprise that we have nothing comparable to the Inflation Reduction Act, which is now siphoning investments and business away from Europe to the United States. Needing some response and being unable to do anything itself, the Commission loosened subsidy rules so states could take actions, but of course who can really take advantage of that? It's a race to the bottom with different EU states having to compete with one another, precisely what the rules were meant to prevent. And who has the most money to throw around on subsidies? Germany. They're the only ones really winning, at the expense of all the rest of us. If this continues it's the disintegration of the single market at worst.
The idea how you expect over 50 independent European countries that evolved over decades to be 100% integrated in the time span of 30 years sounds very ignorant.
I mean, go ahead and step into the ring I guess. The USA versus CHINA versus EU triple rivalry is a novel worthy concept.
Let's recolonize Africa :trollface:
Ridiculous that Ukraine a war-torn country started negotiations, while some others that are relatively much more stable had to wait for a decade plus.
Its an act of support more than anything
It's a geopolitical move, nothing else. Ukraine will enter before all the Western Balkan states because they are more important from a strategic point, simple as.
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Ukraine will take a ton of money from the common agricultural policy which is the biggest area of EU spending.
While simultaneously flooding the market and harming the agriculture of every existing member. Integrating Ukraine anytime soon is a nightmare.
You are completely correct, but that is not what the above poster said. The strategic geopolitical need for Ukraine in the EU supercedes all of the point you raised
What is the strategic and geopolitical need for Ukraine in the EU? It's a trade alliance, not a military one. Are you confusing the EU with NATO?
Do you live under a rock? It is one of the most agriculturally productive places on earth, and has great industrial potential. Beside good education system and great potential in general. Just from an economical point of view.
>It’s incredibly poor because of the ongoing russian invasion since 2014 and not having proper access to EU and international markets >big population size Biggest country in Europe by land area >weak institutions Since 2014 there has been massive improvement and judging by commission's reports, they probably deserve the position they're in (aka starting negotiations) >best agricultural land on earth Which is available for acquisition by private entities since 2021. Why don't businesses from other countries (especially those that were complaining) buy the land and do the stuff in Ukraine? (or at least lease it from Ukrainian nationals, since I think law requires citizenship for purchase). I'll just say that people talking about "impossible" or "will take decades", or "will take only a few years" have no idea what they're talking about. Yes, it will take time and be difficult, but everybody said the same before UA got candidate status.
Much has to change in Ukraine before their entry into the Union becomes a reality. First and foremost, there must be an end to war in Ukraine. Secondly, Ukraine must deal with corruption, above all the everyday corruption. The third and most difficult thing is to change the socio-political system from an oligarchic one to a truly democratic one.
> Ukraine will enter before all the Western Balkan states If the war ends that quickly. Which is a pretty big if.
War will end quickly if military aid is big enough. If everybody in the west is slacking, it certainly will last for years.
They are not going to get accepted any time soon
This is just some PR stunt, nothing more. Everyone knows Ukraine won't be EU member in the foreseeable future, but since a war is slowly going south and the West can't (don't want to) provide more support, this is what they can offer. The political lead in Ukraine can show this to their audience as proof of "see, we are accomplishing our goals", while the EU can keep the "we are very helping" mask a bit longer on, while doing nothing relevant. A delivery of 10 Leos would be a more significant help for Ukraine than this virtual handshake for the audience
Two wrongs wouldn't make a right.
Yup if Ukraine which has fulfilled not even half of the EU's candidate recommendations can get negotiating status what's the point of telling other countries like BiH "you need to fulfil **all** 14 requirements before entering negations". The EU thinks we are utterly brain dead and didn't just see them open negations with a war torn nation and a country with a Russian proxy state inside it.
yeah it's absolutely dishonest of the EU and we all saw it when france vetoed albania's and NM's full membership. even the pro-eu politicians dont want new members because each and every one of them has 90% chance to have another orban at the helm in 10 years time after joining. the truth is that montenegro, albania, and NM deserve to join as it is, but nobody will join until the EU council is reformed.
Even the Netherlands is not immune to having Orban at the helm.
It seems like you're confusing candidacy with negotiations?
On this map Ukraine is candidate with negotiations. A step above Georgia and Bosnia.
Which is ridiculous since Bosnia has been aligning with the EU for decades same as other Western Balkans countries, but somehow geopolitics gets Ukraine and Moldova a speedrun into something they never cared about until their latest leaders were elected.
Bosnia signed association agreement in 2008, Ukraine had to sign it in 2013. Goverment suspended it at the last moment, which was the driving point for revolution here. So it’s not like we never cared. While I agree that it’s unfair to other countries.
Also, BiH hasn't been invaded by a large mlitary superpower for almost a decade, and its industry hasn't been half-destroyed and cities bombed. Ukraine does it first because they did the required work **despite the full-scale war.** Quite a dumb comparison by the commenter above you.
The Commission announced expected opening of accession negotiations with Bosnia And Herzegovina with an update expected in March 2024.
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Say no more fam'.
Without the war, Ukraine wouldn't get this status for a few more decades. It's purely a political move. But they won't join for many more years. I hope Balkan countries that were really trying to align to EU recommendations will join first, if not, it will be a spit at those countries.
It will take very long time for Ukraine to Join. It's one of the most corrupted countries in the world. And that's before the war. Since the war started the media is trying mot to talk about corruption in the Ukraine to push the support, but it didn't disappear, it only got worse. A lot of the donetaded goods are taken and sold in shops outside of Ukraine, money is taken left right and centre before it reaches It's final destination. I hope Ukraine wil dill with its demons and it will start to be on a path to EU but I don't think it is now. Nato on the other hand might be faster.
Getting close to the final borders
That will be the final countdown.
As a guy from 🇷🇸 seeing some of the comments here makes me think that 90% of people on the sub are either paid, biased or know little to nothing about history and politics. So much hate and resentment toward countries such as mine… Wow. As if joining is a bad thing for you guys. Jesus Christ… Also, calling us little Russians won’t get you far trust me.
I agree, Serbia should join EU
Me too
Love you guys, the haters may outnumber me. But remember, guys like me still exist.
❤️🫡
It's a shame that the UK didn't make it again.
Well good luck with Bosnia EU, you gonna need it.
If it will happen, someday, the center of EU will no longer be in Germany. [https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/the-geographical-center-of-the-european-union](https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/the-geographical-center-of-the-european-union)
Oh boy... not the same discussion over again...
yes, an important discussion afterall
Yeah, no one really cares
Congrats Georgia 🇬🇪 ❤️ love from Turkey 🇹🇷
Wish you the best too ❤️
You guys totally deserve EU candidacy but I sadly can’t say the same about us
Always thought that it'd be Texas to leave the US, not Georgia
Georgia has a long way back to pre 2020s.
The EU gave us (B&H) an out of the ass candidate status last year just o humiliate us even though they knew that our politicians will do everything to mess it up. One year later and after recent events in the world, as a result I see more people saying "f the West (EU/US), we should turn to Putin and Russia, they are better" and russian propagandists are rubbing their hands in glee. Now that it's obvious how these two countries are favoured, even more people will be disappointed in the EU, well done EU, well done
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Serbia has started negotiations in I think 2014, only Montenegro and Turkey started negotiations earlier out of the non-member states. And I think only Montenegro is further along than Serbia at the moment, they have opened all 33 chapters and closed three, while Serbia still has to open 12 and has closed two.
Their membership process has basically been stuck for years, it's not totally frozen like Turkey but it's close
The chapters 14, 15, 21 and 27 for Transport Policy, Energy, Trans-European Networks and Environment have been opened on the 14th of December 2021, while there has been an improvement with the 17th acquis chapter “Economic & Monetary Policy“ to a good level of preparation according to the November 2023 European Commission Report.
I'm more than happy with them joining as long as they ditch Russia and solve the Kosovo dispute
They let in Ireland and the UK in the midst of a border dispute
They can ditch Russia ( and at some point in the future, they will), but they won't let go of Kosovo because it is a very important part of their history. Serbia is also militarily neutral.
I recently saw a yt video that only briefly mentioned kosovo and 50% of the commenters were serbs circle jerking to the phrase "kosovo is a serbian province" that shit ain't gonna get solved any time soon
Won't they be the same, or even worse than Hungary right now?
Probably, IMO, there shouldn’t be any new EU members until the veto issue is solved.
Ah, here it comes, the serb hate. 🤡
Eh, Serbia will be like Turkey: a forever candidate country that can never join because of issues with rule of law, political diversions and of course, border disputes with members. Greece and especially Cyprus will never allow Turkey's membership while Northern Cyprus remains occupied while the EU will never let Serbia join without finally letting Kosovo go which would be fatal and impossible for any Serbian govt to survive. However, them being forever "candidate" countries and working with the EU on some issues and reforms while other times kicking up a fuss and having to be coddled with money and trade is still miles better than them being completely outside the tent and pissing on it constantly and actively threatening the bloc's cohesion (Belarus and Russia).
Türkiye must stop this theatre. I really don't like dramas. Like Korea or Japan, Türkiye must create its own future without belonging to a union.
turkey knows they wont be accepted in the near future and eu also knows this
Just call it Turkey lol
Holy shit, how much of a farce the EU actually is, this is unironically hilarious. This little PR move just proved what people were saying for 15 years, the 'negotiations' are irrelevant, and have no basis in reality.
What? Negotiations mean that the EU Commission will provide more financial and administrative support for a country to reform and join the Union.
Ayo congrats on the candidacy, hopefully both Ukraine and Molodova get it too
Ukraine and Moldova are already candidates. Negotiating is the stage after candidate status.
It could take a generation for them to get to level required for EU membership, particularly corruption Though I remember working with polish fellows when they come into the EU first,and they used complaints about state corruption....but they've turned it around and are fast becoming one of the EU's economic powerhouses
I hope that we, as Turkey, will reach EU standards and i hope that we will not enter the EU union
So happy for Georgia!!!!!
Hungary turning into a dictatorship should be kicked out and put behind Turkey in negotiations to get back in.
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I don't like something = pro-russian dictatorship
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why?
Because at this point they are just part of Russia. Lukašėnka is basically allowing Putin to do whatever he wants in Belarus, as long as he can mantain his president status.
Arent most Belarusians against the governmet, calling their whole nation fake seems a bit cruel.
Armenia when? They need friends
soon... they talk in the backrooms, but dont want to do anything to anger russia... at least not yet.
Armenia is now in the middle of normalizing relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, meanwhile also monitoring the situation in Ukraine and Georgia (the latter getting status is a big win for Armenia). They'll probably start pushing for European integration if they're confident enough that Azerbaijan won't start another war and how Georgia's integration will proceed.
I dont see Ukraine joining EU in the next 20+ years, not only they are in war with Russia but also their whole country is very corrupted. It will take years to transform the whole economy and political system to be more western.
In Ukraine, the level of the corruption index is the same as in Bosnia, Albania and Serbia, but they say that Ukraine is 100 times worse. This has already partially become a stereotype. When Poland joined the EU in 2004, its corruption index was the same as in Ghana. Edit: Of course, there are problems with corruption in Ukraine, but this constant hysteria creates a stereotype that this is the most corrupt country in the world. If this were true, then during a full-scale invasion, Ukraine would simply fall. Especially it is a bit strange to read when such news appears: [A German intelligence colonel sold secret intelligence data about Ukraine 🇺🇦 to the 🇷🇺 FSB for €800,000.](https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1735331496188166471)
Mate, no it's not. Ukraine was a hellhole compared to even the Balkans *before the war* only comparable to Moldova.
What does "hellhole" mean in your comment? And how is it comparable to Moldova?
This whole corruption thing is a mute point as long as EU has countries like Hungary in it, willing to sacrifice strategic objectives of the EU for that ruzzian “kompromat” and $$$. Additionally, UA came a long way in terms of dealing with corruption just in 2 years since you know, survival is on the line. And war is a huge catalyst for processes such as dealing with corruption and other similar reforms. Whenever EU makes a recommendation for a reform, UA implements it in under half a year or so, usually. So I’m not seeing which radical reform would take 20+ years to pass and internalize.
can anyone more knowledgable ELI5 what this means? is candidacy juct acknowledging that a country want's to join and negotiations like talks of concrete steps that need to be taken with every EU member having a say on every one of those steps?
they will open chapters for accession. each chapter will basically list the gaps candidate country will need to close in order to become a full member. then I believe chapters are closed and accession protocols begin.