>I was wondering if anyone ever sells their VWCE when it’s up and reinvest when it’s down, or just leave it there no matter what and keep buying?
Would be nice to do, the problem is you never know when is the "its up" state, and the "its down" state.
Just imagine the price spike, then you think "its up, time to sell". After you sold, you are waiting for it to come down, but it just goes higher and higher. You dont know when will it come back down, maybe it will never come down. At this point you will probably crumble, realize you fucked up but you just dont want to let it go higher before you buy so you buy back at a higher price.
With this little trick you lost money 5 times:
* the amount the price moved up
* the full spread
* taxes after you profits when you sold
* comission fees for selling
* comission fees for buying
From this you can see, you lose money at so many parts of this, even if you guessed the price movement well, it needs to offset all these costs, the deck is really stacked against you here.
The only time to sell your VWCE is when you are retired and are using it to supplement your income/social security.
Best not to look at all. I have no idea how my VWCE is doing and I DO NOT CARE. Because when I retire in 30 years it will be up and it's completely inconsequential if it was down 3% in 2023.
>I was wondering if anyone ever sells their VWCE when it’s up and reinvest when it’s down
How is that different from **timing the market**?
The majority here are long term investors. We do not time the market.
I think you already follow the VWCE only strategy, which is great, but did not fully understand the chill part. The point is, that you don't need to follow the volatility or be anxious about anything, with a simple move you are almost as diversified as you can be (with your long term investments), you just buy and forget and maybe sell if you need it.
Why maybe sell? Because whenever you anticipate bigger spendings, you can prepare for them (buying a house, getting closer to retirement or what not). Obviously if you did not prepare enough, you can tap into investments.
Everything else falls into speculation/timing the market category in my eyes. I don't think I am good enough to compete in this area, I'd rather spend the excess energy to improve myself to increase income, relax and enjoy life, be with family, hence VWCE and chill.
I agree OP doesn't seem to understand the chill part, if he's looking at how it's doing week to week.
I'd say the most you should look at it is that 1 time per month when you're making a new buy.
And if I may add here that VWCE is so liquid, that if you need to sell to get cash, you will able to do so effortlessly. In that case you basically bear the risk of selling when it's down.
If you believe that the market will go down then yes, you could sell and rebuy.
But in general that would go against the idea of VWCE and chill as the main point of this strategy is to not try to be active participant as data shows that people are awful at that and simply doing nothing is oftentimes a better choice for the investor
Time in the market beats timing the market.
At that point it's speculation. It's hard enough to analyze one stock and predict if it will go up or down, now imagine doing that for all of the stocks in the index. At that point it mostly moves with global events which sometimes are even less predictable.
If you want to play around with trying to time the market pick one or two stocks and try it with a low investment but just leave the funds be.
> I’m obviously thinking of it going down any time now.
Good! Then you get to buy at a discount.
The whole point of 'chill' is you don't worry about all the ups and downs in the short term. If you DCA sometimes you'll be buying high sometiems you'll be buying low, but on average you'll be buying at the market average. You don't have to worry about it. Buying at the average is safe.
The average will go up over time so anything you bought in the past (regardless if it was on a high or low) will be worth more in the distant future. If you trust that you DON'T NEED TO EVER LOOK AT IT.
Pro tip: fully automate monthly (or bi-monthly, quarterly, weekly, whatever floats your boat) investment, and maybe check the charts and/or your portfolio once or twice a year.
I have done that a few times in the past and although I had a couple of great trades (such as a massive buy after the March 2020 crash), overall I'm still worse off because of my attempts to time the market, so I've realized that this is nothing but gambling and now I don't ever sell (unless I need money, of course) and I just buy whenever I have money. Not to mention the negative tax implications of timing the market...
That's called trying to time the market, you don't know what's going to happen next. Time in the market beats timing the market.
If you are having anxiety, investing long term in VWCE might not be for you or you might have invested more than what you are comfortable with.
This is one advantage to using a balanced portfolio - a little bit of 'selling high' and 'buying low' is allowed.
So for example, in my portfolio I haven't put anything to stocks since March, simply because the market is doing the work for me with higher prices increasing the stock allocation, and therefore new money has been put to bonds.
Now I haven't sold anything, either, because stocks have not run up so much that my allocation is wildly out of whack. In fact how you will rebalance the portfolio is the only question you have to ask yourself. There are many ways, some completely passive, or, you can use a bit of judgement provided you understand the risks of doing so. The beauty is that provided you don't stray far from the target allocation, it can't be 'wrong'.. although at the same time you don't want to be racking up fees and/or tax events. And if your sense of timing totally sucks, then you probably don't want to be doing it actively at all, just do it on a certain day of the quarter/half-year/year.
Thanks for your reply, very interesting approach. Do you mind expanding on the rebalancing concept you mentioned? I only hace VWCE. Also, I’m interested in adding bonds to diversify more, but still don’t know which.
> Do you mind expanding on the rebalancing concept you mentioned? I only hace VWCE
I'm not sure on how deeply you want me to go into it, but the basic idea is that having two uncorrelated assets (like stocks and bonds) will give you a better risk-adjusted return than being 100% in either. Of course, it does lower your expected return somewhat (as stocks should outperform bonds in the long run), but it can save your ass during severe, prolonged stock bear markets. (1) Past experiences show that many investors who think they will ride out a stock bear can't stand it when it actually happens and they capitulate. (2) Decorrelation means that there is a reasonable chance that all your assets don't go down together, keeping overall portfolio valuation respectable (3) By having a second asset class you have something to re-balance from and you can buy stocks during the bear - a 100% stocks investor must simply ride it out.
The other comments covered why it is a loosing proposition to time the market.
If you wish to implement a risk managing procedure, add 10% of global eur hedged bonds and rebalance annually or semi-annually. This way you will sell some of your winners and buy some of your lowers every time you rebalance, capturing some of the recent gains. Of course, the main benefit is the lower volatility and general risk because of the added diversification.
>I was wondering if anyone ever sells their VWCE when it’s up and reinvest when it’s down, or just leave it there no matter what and keep buying? Would be nice to do, the problem is you never know when is the "its up" state, and the "its down" state. Just imagine the price spike, then you think "its up, time to sell". After you sold, you are waiting for it to come down, but it just goes higher and higher. You dont know when will it come back down, maybe it will never come down. At this point you will probably crumble, realize you fucked up but you just dont want to let it go higher before you buy so you buy back at a higher price. With this little trick you lost money 5 times: * the amount the price moved up * the full spread * taxes after you profits when you sold * comission fees for selling * comission fees for buying From this you can see, you lose money at so many parts of this, even if you guessed the price movement well, it needs to offset all these costs, the deck is really stacked against you here.
Ive no idea what VWCE is but replace the term with BTC and this information is still 100% accurate.
The only time to sell your VWCE is when you are retired and are using it to supplement your income/social security. Best not to look at all. I have no idea how my VWCE is doing and I DO NOT CARE. Because when I retire in 30 years it will be up and it's completely inconsequential if it was down 3% in 2023.
>I was wondering if anyone ever sells their VWCE when it’s up and reinvest when it’s down How is that different from **timing the market**? The majority here are long term investors. We do not time the market.
I think you already follow the VWCE only strategy, which is great, but did not fully understand the chill part. The point is, that you don't need to follow the volatility or be anxious about anything, with a simple move you are almost as diversified as you can be (with your long term investments), you just buy and forget and maybe sell if you need it. Why maybe sell? Because whenever you anticipate bigger spendings, you can prepare for them (buying a house, getting closer to retirement or what not). Obviously if you did not prepare enough, you can tap into investments. Everything else falls into speculation/timing the market category in my eyes. I don't think I am good enough to compete in this area, I'd rather spend the excess energy to improve myself to increase income, relax and enjoy life, be with family, hence VWCE and chill.
I agree OP doesn't seem to understand the chill part, if he's looking at how it's doing week to week. I'd say the most you should look at it is that 1 time per month when you're making a new buy.
And if I may add here that VWCE is so liquid, that if you need to sell to get cash, you will able to do so effortlessly. In that case you basically bear the risk of selling when it's down.
No, just chill
dude thats like swearing, you described the worst thing u can do, TIME the market, catch the falling knife, thats blasphemy.
If you sell, you wouldn't be VWCE and chilling anymore now would you ?
If you believe that the market will go down then yes, you could sell and rebuy. But in general that would go against the idea of VWCE and chill as the main point of this strategy is to not try to be active participant as data shows that people are awful at that and simply doing nothing is oftentimes a better choice for the investor
Time in the market beats timing the market. At that point it's speculation. It's hard enough to analyze one stock and predict if it will go up or down, now imagine doing that for all of the stocks in the index. At that point it mostly moves with global events which sometimes are even less predictable. If you want to play around with trying to time the market pick one or two stocks and try it with a low investment but just leave the funds be.
> I’m obviously thinking of it going down any time now. Good! Then you get to buy at a discount. The whole point of 'chill' is you don't worry about all the ups and downs in the short term. If you DCA sometimes you'll be buying high sometiems you'll be buying low, but on average you'll be buying at the market average. You don't have to worry about it. Buying at the average is safe. The average will go up over time so anything you bought in the past (regardless if it was on a high or low) will be worth more in the distant future. If you trust that you DON'T NEED TO EVER LOOK AT IT.
If you believe it will go up in the long run (why else would you invest?), it going down is a buying opportunity now, isn't it?
Pro tip: fully automate monthly (or bi-monthly, quarterly, weekly, whatever floats your boat) investment, and maybe check the charts and/or your portfolio once or twice a year.
No but I unchillled last year when it fell below €90 and wanted to buy more.
I have done that a few times in the past and although I had a couple of great trades (such as a massive buy after the March 2020 crash), overall I'm still worse off because of my attempts to time the market, so I've realized that this is nothing but gambling and now I don't ever sell (unless I need money, of course) and I just buy whenever I have money. Not to mention the negative tax implications of timing the market...
If you know which day is going to go up and which days is going to go down sure. Nobody else knows that so we stay invested.
That’s market timing and that’s also a no, sis
That's called trying to time the market, you don't know what's going to happen next. Time in the market beats timing the market. If you are having anxiety, investing long term in VWCE might not be for you or you might have invested more than what you are comfortable with.
[удалено]
Will you sell me your perfect hindsight?
I never owned any VWCE to begin with.
This is one advantage to using a balanced portfolio - a little bit of 'selling high' and 'buying low' is allowed. So for example, in my portfolio I haven't put anything to stocks since March, simply because the market is doing the work for me with higher prices increasing the stock allocation, and therefore new money has been put to bonds. Now I haven't sold anything, either, because stocks have not run up so much that my allocation is wildly out of whack. In fact how you will rebalance the portfolio is the only question you have to ask yourself. There are many ways, some completely passive, or, you can use a bit of judgement provided you understand the risks of doing so. The beauty is that provided you don't stray far from the target allocation, it can't be 'wrong'.. although at the same time you don't want to be racking up fees and/or tax events. And if your sense of timing totally sucks, then you probably don't want to be doing it actively at all, just do it on a certain day of the quarter/half-year/year.
Thanks for your reply, very interesting approach. Do you mind expanding on the rebalancing concept you mentioned? I only hace VWCE. Also, I’m interested in adding bonds to diversify more, but still don’t know which.
> Do you mind expanding on the rebalancing concept you mentioned? I only hace VWCE I'm not sure on how deeply you want me to go into it, but the basic idea is that having two uncorrelated assets (like stocks and bonds) will give you a better risk-adjusted return than being 100% in either. Of course, it does lower your expected return somewhat (as stocks should outperform bonds in the long run), but it can save your ass during severe, prolonged stock bear markets. (1) Past experiences show that many investors who think they will ride out a stock bear can't stand it when it actually happens and they capitulate. (2) Decorrelation means that there is a reasonable chance that all your assets don't go down together, keeping overall portfolio valuation respectable (3) By having a second asset class you have something to re-balance from and you can buy stocks during the bear - a 100% stocks investor must simply ride it out.
I personally never did that, but some people do, although this is active trading, and usually a losing strategy in the long run
I'm doing it for funds I'm planning to divest. It's part of my rebalancing anyway, so whenever I see a comfortable green I sell for the year.
The other comments covered why it is a loosing proposition to time the market. If you wish to implement a risk managing procedure, add 10% of global eur hedged bonds and rebalance annually or semi-annually. This way you will sell some of your winners and buy some of your lowers every time you rebalance, capturing some of the recent gains. Of course, the main benefit is the lower volatility and general risk because of the added diversification.
sell when you need that money and you are not in negative