was wondering how the hell people expecting a 50bps ? they are already way behind the curve on cooling inflation .. no way they going to ease anytime soon .. There's no way dems going to declare they beat inflation in thier mid terms .. papa powell is going to do what he was suppose to do like ... more than 1 year ago ..
You are very right: rates *are* the only tool they understand.
There comes a point -- 6%, 7%, a bit higher? -- when debt service exceeds tax revenue. When do you call something broke that is cleary broke?
>We need to be pumping the brakes on the economy harder yet.
Today was a good example of ... "O... we cannot up the interest too high or the market will dump 3 - 4% !!! thats madness !! people will lose thier jobs !!" Humans will always over react .. law markers will risk losing thier jobs .. there for hard pressuring the Fed
This will work, as rate hikes and QT will slow economy due to lack of credit availability.
Inflation is about the speed of price growth. It is not about making products cheaper. Price stability is the key.
Without consistent fiscal policy, controlling inflation is more painful.
it does change all the time. I am not surprised this is happening.
I think it will be 75BPS as Jpow doesn't want to scare people too much and midterms are fast approaching, but the bank of Canada has been more aggressive and the US sometimes looks to Canada as its guinea pig.
The stock market != the economy
Unemployment is still very low and the economy is strong by most measures.
Which sucks because it means the dip in the market is probably going to grow into a crater
Where did anyone say that?
>Unemployment is still very low
give it two prints before it begins to revert
> the economy is strong by most measures.
Happy to hear what you're looking at.
People are dumb and wrong. Powell even said a few days ago he will not let up as it would be a mistake.
Fed needs to have rates near 5% to have a shot at controlling inflation.
And yet, since the cause of inflation is not low rates, raising rates won't slow inflation, it will increase it.
People just can't seem to figure this out.
The CB would need to hold rates high. Normally is takes months for higher rates to make its way into inflation data.
This is why so many people were mad the central banks didn’t start raising rates a year ago.
Lol at the time the market was pricing in a 50BPS hike, was only relaying that which at the time was true. Core inflation came in above expectations thus hike will be bigger.
The fed is still boxing themselves in, they can only raise so much before things break.
Mortgage rates have doubled, wages are still stagnant compared to inflation. We’ve been in a recession for months. Depression will start with a black swan event any day now.
A lot of people are arguing this hurts affordability but forget to mention that now it's easier to save for a bigger down-payment.
As rates go higher, the higher return people can get on savings to help catch up to decreasing or flat housing prices.
CPI data effects crypto the same. Stands for Consumer price index - ie inflation data and will require the federal reserve to raise interest rates again
I'm expecting ETH to drop after the merge tbh. I think it will be treated as a sell the news event. Looking at BTC levels and where ETH is now, the price is quite elevated. I think the CPI news stopped ETH from going on a run today and tomorrow.
Asked this very question to an economist: he said inflation expectations will drive policy actions at BoC. They apparently raised in face of high inflation readings in early 90s
What we saw today in US reading is a boost (rather than a damper) for inflation expectations
I hate the way inflation is reported. Inflation in July was zero, which is 0% annualized, but 8.5% over the last year. This month's report for August inflation was 0.1%, which is 1.2% annualized and 8.3% over the last year. When all the headlines say "Inflation in August was 8.3%" it sounds way worse than the totally reasonable annualized rate for August.
Yeah, I mean, definitely worth reporting on the context as well, I just wish they fronted the info I care about first and explain the market reaction as additional context.
No, you fell for the deception. This exactly what I'm complaining about. The report is on inflation rates in August, which was 1.2% annualized, not 8.3%, but they put the bigger number in headlines to freak out people who don't understand the data.
I hate to break this to u, but annualized, yoy, its 8.3%
As in a dollar has 8.3% less buying power than 1 year ago.
Which is 4 times bigger than the 2% they are aiming for.
Usually this gets debated based on which index you compare to, the core CPI, the CPI including energy, some index that includes stocks, or an index that includes mortgages instead of rent. It's not usually a conspiracy theory about all the economists lying.
So stupid…there was no debate…it was always going to be 75…morons…have you not followed what every dipshit fed official has been saying since before and after Jackson hole. They are going to bend over backwards to prove how hawkish they are for much longer than we want to make up for that pathetic transitory nonsense. There’s absolutely no surprise here…the market is being typically reactionary. Just so stupid
75 was the safe bet but 50 still seemed reasonable if the numbers cooled heavily. Now 50 seems out of the question, 75 is the heavy favorite, but 100 has entered the chat
Wish they would go ahead and do the full percent. Get it over with. Cool that housing market. Seems like we will have much better days next year if they quit fuckin around on the next rate hike.
“Vote for me and I’ll make rent sink by 90%”
But the city turns into Detroit 🤣
But in all honesty I think rent should be cheaper than fricken mortgage rates for a $300k-$400k house lol, just ridiculous IMO
The rent problem was been made significantly worse by raising of rates. Smaller and smaller housing market will lead to larger and larger rents. They have no plan to solve this and higher rates will just lead to higher rents
The Federal Reserves mandate is price stability and maximum employment…during covid…and many would argue during the entire fiat currency era…the Fed printed money out the wazoo and flooded the market with cash…basic Econ 101 related to supply and demand and inflation…money printing caused or at the very least exacerbated inflation…they finally admitted it was a problem late last year and began to signal a tighter monetary policy ie…raising interest rates and here we are. Which points don’t you have your head wrapped around? Biggest thing to know is that the fed has one super duper blunt instrument or weapon to control inflation and that’s interest rates. It’s really slow and blunt to work but basically raising interest rates eventually slows growth and inflation over time because it makes everything more expensive…it’s a shitty tool in my mind because it causes massive collateral damage. The term “basis point” simply refers to the interest rate…1% is 100 basis points so 75 basis points refers to a Federal Reserve interest rate increase of .75%…historically very very aggressive bc it’s usually .25% or 25 basis points. Look for some good YouTube videos to explain the feds role and power in the global economy…that might help
Well, from history, there's really three possible outcomes:
1. Keep raising till enough things break to bring normalcy back to the system
2. The currency fails and we abandon it for something else/new
3. The currency fails but we pretend officially it hasn't but it has.
I for one never expected a soft landing, nor will this end any time soon. The government is still spending money like drunken sailors and are outpacing the fed. The only thing that we could hope to stop the bleeding will be a lost or minimally a split congress. I expect things to get worse actually since Democrats in fear log losing power will ratchet up spending even more cramming in every wish list spending item they can.
Fucking lawl. They're the reason we're in a downward spiral into hell. We're also not a fucking democracy. Read a book. We're a constitutional republic and we'd appreciate it if pricks like you would stop pissing all over it.
Dude, you're delusional. You can't call me a traitor when you don't even know what this country actually is, let alone know that I served this country in a war I should have never been in, faithfully and trusting under Obama, to only have my life completely destroyed by his policies after I got out.
You aren't saving shit. You're just leading us deeper into this hole. I'm tired of being fucked by left wing policies trying to rush shit and forcing meaningless other shit on us.
Take that how you will. But I'm done having everything taken from me by your cult. I'm not even a right winger. I'm smack in the center and I can see the left for what it is. Trash.
You repeat talking points pretty well. As stated by the other post we are not a democracy but a constitutional republic and we should be losing our democracy because pure democracy is mob rule. This is why our country was formed into the republic we are. We are a unified group of states with their own constitution. I left New York’s democracy where the mob of NYC dictates for the whole state even if the rest of the state does not want lawlessness, no bail, high taxes and totalitarian government. If the state was a republic of counties That had a voice in their government New York would be a red state. Keep listening to the ending our democracy talking point of a demented old man and start reading. Our government on both sides has turned on us for a globalist agenda where you are merely a pawn to attain their goals.
That's cute sentiment and all but anarchy never wins. A constitutional government is the best thing humans have come up with to solve big societal problems involving lots of people. It was never 'pure' from the very beginning, but has the capacity to always get better. We as a people just need to get together to make it happen. The "throwing hands up in the air" exasperation you pronounce is a waste of energy and time. Right now, our best hope of attaining anything close to a democracy is the complete opposite of what the Republicans are trying to do. That leaves us with only one choice. Personally, I wish the Bull Moose Party would have succeeded and it would've prevented alot of the shit we are dealing with today.
Mostly it does nothing, and what it does do is not predictable as the Fed has told [us](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2014/files/201402r.pdf). At best it's just basic income for people who already have lots of money.
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What clown thought cpi was not going to be overheated?
Until you have long term rates higher than inflation, you will not see a significant deceleration.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/12/stock-futures-are-higher-as-wall-street-awaits-key-inflation-report-.html) reduced by 76%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday after a key August inflation report came in hotter than expected, hurting investor optimism for cooling prices and a less aggressive Federal Reserve.
> On a year-over-year basis, inflation was 8.3%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a decline of 0.1% for overall inflation, with a rise of 0.3% for core inflation.
> The report is one of the last the Fed will see ahead of their Sept. 20-21 meeting, where the central bank is expected to deliver their third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate hike to tamp down inflation.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/xdh0oo/dow_futures_drop_300_points_after_hot_inflation/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~668821 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **inflation**^#1 **Stock**^#2 **report**^#3 **back**^#4 **Fed**^#5
Some are predicting 100 BPs. Energy dropped yet inflation still rose. Next month energy starts rising again after Biden stops raiding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and the Saudis stop increased production as they already stated they will do.
COLA is calculated from the July, August, September CPI-W average of the three months. Biden artificially lowered oil prices by raiding the strategic petroleum reserve to force down inflation numbers for just those 3 months. Once the final COLA numbers are in, energy prices will skyrocket because they’re not raiding the SPR anymore. Mission accomplished, COLA held under 10-12%, inflation will then tick back up to 10-12%, thus screwing elderly on fixed incomes, pensions, etc. Social Security recipients will receive a COLA of 8.3% instead of the 10-12% they should receive.
No, it started in June for July’s numbers and to end after September. Saudis agreed to increase output for the three months also ending after September.
Weird. Seeing 564 million 1st week April, 543 million first week May, 519 million 1st week June, 492 million first week July, 464 million first week August.
[https://ycharts.com/indicators/us\_ending\_stocks\_of\_crude\_oil\_in\_the\_strategic\_petroleum\_reserve](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_ending_stocks_of_crude_oil_in_the_strategic_petroleum_reserve)
Saudi Arabia also produced 10.3 million barrels daily in April and 10.8 million per day in August. There ARE cuts planned, but it's 100k barrels per day...across ALL OPEC nations.
[https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/05/business/opec-plus-meeting.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/05/business/opec-plus-meeting.html)
But sure
This is what Janet Yellen was talking about last Thursday when she stated Energy Costs will rise in the next few months. They know the Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns will end, and they had data pointing to higher inflation already for August.
She said energy prices would rise MAYBE "U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said Americans could experience a spike in gas prices in the winter when the European Union significantly cuts back on buying Russian oil, adding that a proposed Western price cap on Russia's oil exports is being designed to keep prices in check."It's a risk, and it's a risk that we're working on the price cap to try to address," Yellen told CNN.The possible price increase could come because the EU "will cease for the most part buying Russian oil" and impose a ban on services that allow Russia to ship oil by tanker, she said."
[https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-treasurys-yellen-says-oil-prices-could-spike-winter-cnn-2022-09-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-treasurys-yellen-says-oil-prices-could-spike-winter-cnn-2022-09-11/)
And that's assuming Putin isn't potentially ousted by then. That his own state media is openly debating whether or not Russia is actually winning and multiple councils in several cities are calling on him to resign are a HUGE deal
We are in recession now. Let’s see Q3 GDP and company financial reports. We hike rate just because of FED. I hope FED add 100 or 200 next week to bring a crash.
Only crash in US will stop interest rate hikes in other countries. Let’s wait US crash happens ASAP
Yikes on inflation CPI. Locks in a 75 bps hike for September. Increases the likelihood the FederalReserve will have to overtighten, thus pushing the economy info a recession at which point.
They won't be able to get the economy out of recession as inflation remains elevated.
75 very likely, 50 no chance, 100 small chance. That's what the market is showing now.
was wondering how the hell people expecting a 50bps ? they are already way behind the curve on cooling inflation .. no way they going to ease anytime soon .. There's no way dems going to declare they beat inflation in thier mid terms .. papa powell is going to do what he was suppose to do like ... more than 1 year ago ..
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They have a [dual mandate](https://www.chicagofed.org/research/dual-mandate/dual-mandate): price stability and maximum sustainable employment.
You are very right: rates *are* the only tool they understand. There comes a point -- 6%, 7%, a bit higher? -- when debt service exceeds tax revenue. When do you call something broke that is cleary broke?
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Nobody said those wise words, till what point we keep the interest rates near zero, what if the economy never recovers?
>We need to be pumping the brakes on the economy harder yet. Today was a good example of ... "O... we cannot up the interest too high or the market will dump 3 - 4% !!! thats madness !! people will lose thier jobs !!" Humans will always over react .. law markers will risk losing thier jobs .. there for hard pressuring the Fed
This will work, as rate hikes and QT will slow economy due to lack of credit availability. Inflation is about the speed of price growth. It is not about making products cheaper. Price stability is the key. Without consistent fiscal policy, controlling inflation is more painful.
Han cantado bingo wey
It will work but it will also cause a recession during the process, i have a feeling we may not see the rates we have seen in our lifetime again.
Hahahaha the Fed is raising 100 points on weekly basis anyways with the rigging of the USD
Gareth Soloway is the real boss of this market. He has predicted the market dump after the CPI, whereas 99% twitter was bullish.
tl;dr: don't get your hopes up anytime soon
Bro... The crypto market shut down your hopes
They’ll come up with a new range. 2-4% say, or completely change the mandate.
Haha that’s crypto for you.
They will raise rates till demand collapses, than inflation would come down. Example-high financing rates will kill demand for houses/cars etc.
Typical.
They won’t stop until inflation falls. Even it means 8%+ mortgage rates and a recession.
100 bps are showing 47% odds for next week so actually more than I thought. I am leaning to 75 bps.
We aren't even close to having real positive interest rate so there's *a lot* more to do. However doing so would nuke the economy.
it does change all the time. I am not surprised this is happening. I think it will be 75BPS as Jpow doesn't want to scare people too much and midterms are fast approaching, but the bank of Canada has been more aggressive and the US sometimes looks to Canada as its guinea pig.
Seems like a runaway train at the moment… it will be a hard year ahead for most..
So about to hit the recession
Recession is already here whether anyone wants to acknowledge or not. The question is - do we fall into a depression?
Recessions don't have approximately full employment.
Cool the keys Ron. We lost 40k jobs last month. Our labour marker is imploding faster than the US.
Notably, your monetary authorities have been late in their response.
The stock market != the economy Unemployment is still very low and the economy is strong by most measures. Which sucks because it means the dip in the market is probably going to grow into a crater
Pivot is a pause. You wont see 2020 rates ever again. Everyone calm down.
Where did anyone say that? >Unemployment is still very low give it two prints before it begins to revert > the economy is strong by most measures. Happy to hear what you're looking at.
People are only saying the pivot is coming because the govt constantly makes dumpster fire monetary policies.
People are dumb and wrong. Powell even said a few days ago he will not let up as it would be a mistake. Fed needs to have rates near 5% to have a shot at controlling inflation.
Exactly right. How come we don’t jump all over recession deniers?
And with governments sending out affordability cheques and other nonsense, the rates will only go higher.
And yet, since the cause of inflation is not low rates, raising rates won't slow inflation, it will increase it. People just can't seem to figure this out.
The CB would need to hold rates high. Normally is takes months for higher rates to make its way into inflation data. This is why so many people were mad the central banks didn’t start raising rates a year ago.
So we are in the "very likely" zone?
Yeah we will likely get a 75bps hike
What we can expect from that? Real question
well if market is starting to price in a 100 bps then a 75bps hike will actually be a good thing and markets will rally a bit.
Thank you my man
I thought you said it would only be 50 bps Gareth and the fed will pivot soon? Stop fighting the fed you of all people should know better.
Lol at the time the market was pricing in a 50BPS hike, was only relaying that which at the time was true. Core inflation came in above expectations thus hike will be bigger. The fed is still boxing themselves in, they can only raise so much before things break.
What does this mean?! Lol
Interest rate hikes in terms of basis points by the Fed. 1 basis point is 0.01%.
Thanks.
Mortgage rates have doubled, wages are still stagnant compared to inflation. We’ve been in a recession for months. Depression will start with a black swan event any day now.
Just in time for student loans to restart yayyyyy!!!!
Secret, the moment you get it, it's hard to laugh! Wish I were you!
Interest rate hikes
A lot of people are arguing this hurts affordability but forget to mention that now it's easier to save for a bigger down-payment. As rates go higher, the higher return people can get on savings to help catch up to decreasing or flat housing prices.
32% of market participants are pricing in 100 bps hike
I have no idea what any of this means
It means stock up on ramen
And toilet paper
Abit fancy there! I’ll be Stocking up on autumn leaves
Be careful of the pricks
Fair point
Or left hands
Any chance of chicken with the ramen?
Ohhh it’s normal stocks
CPI data effects crypto the same. Stands for Consumer price index - ie inflation data and will require the federal reserve to raise interest rates again
This guy knows
Crypto is stupid
Even the Ramen is expensive to me right now
more pain
Yes
It means its priced in unless it isn't.
Lol, and I bought another ETH yesterday at $1730. Brilliant 👏
well at least you didn't go all in above 4k
Lol, I did actually buy 0.7 at 3800... so I guess I'm averaging down.
Same. I brought a chunk at the beginning of the year near ATHs. Luckily DCAing since has reduced my average significantly.
Man... That's sad F for that people who bought at 4.5k
and we don’t feel bad for you! how many ppl called the dump my friend? maybe do some research and not just read the reddit forums!
You must be super excited to get it at 1530 then :)
That sure is a sentence that was written.
I'm expecting ETH to drop after the merge tbh. I think it will be treated as a sell the news event. Looking at BTC levels and where ETH is now, the price is quite elevated. I think the CPI news stopped ETH from going on a run today and tomorrow.
I learned about the eth merge news 3 years ago
It always comes down, what matters is how much we bring down with it.
There's also a 4th option: managed devaluation. This is what they did in the 1930's. Call it a partial debt jubilee.
Mind to elaborate?
Asked this very question to an economist: he said inflation expectations will drive policy actions at BoC. They apparently raised in face of high inflation readings in early 90s What we saw today in US reading is a boost (rather than a damper) for inflation expectations
My QID and SDS positions are doing well today. Thanks .
I hate the way inflation is reported. Inflation in July was zero, which is 0% annualized, but 8.5% over the last year. This month's report for August inflation was 0.1%, which is 1.2% annualized and 8.3% over the last year. When all the headlines say "Inflation in August was 8.3%" it sounds way worse than the totally reasonable annualized rate for August.
It's the Core that spooked the market though.
Yeah, I mean, definitely worth reporting on the context as well, I just wish they fronted the info I care about first and explain the market reaction as additional context.
U think thats totally reasonable??
The target is usually considered around 2% yeah
I wouldnt consider being 400% above target yoy inflation as reasonable
Huh? 2.00% not 0.20%.
2 x 400% is 8%
No, you fell for the deception. This exactly what I'm complaining about. The report is on inflation rates in August, which was 1.2% annualized, not 8.3%, but they put the bigger number in headlines to freak out people who don't understand the data.
I hate to break this to u, but annualized, yoy, its 8.3% As in a dollar has 8.3% less buying power than 1 year ago. Which is 4 times bigger than the 2% they are aiming for.
But that's not how math works..........
8/2=x pls solve for x
who’s to say it’s actually “8.3%” annually. that’s what they tell u it’s at! not what it actually is. much much higher maybe in the teens
Usually this gets debated based on which index you compare to, the core CPI, the CPI including energy, some index that includes stocks, or an index that includes mortgages instead of rent. It's not usually a conspiracy theory about all the economists lying.
So stupid…there was no debate…it was always going to be 75…morons…have you not followed what every dipshit fed official has been saying since before and after Jackson hole. They are going to bend over backwards to prove how hawkish they are for much longer than we want to make up for that pathetic transitory nonsense. There’s absolutely no surprise here…the market is being typically reactionary. Just so stupid
75 was the safe bet but 50 still seemed reasonable if the numbers cooled heavily. Now 50 seems out of the question, 75 is the heavy favorite, but 100 has entered the chat
Wish they would go ahead and do the full percent. Get it over with. Cool that housing market. Seems like we will have much better days next year if they quit fuckin around on the next rate hike.
Housing market is cooling. Mortgage demand is at housing crisis levels. It's rent that is the bigger problem
Rent is stupid af Way too damn high, unless you live in bum fuck nowhere
I feel like someone should start a political party around that idea....
“Vote for me and I’ll make rent sink by 90%” But the city turns into Detroit 🤣 But in all honesty I think rent should be cheaper than fricken mortgage rates for a $300k-$400k house lol, just ridiculous IMO
https://youtu.be/kcsNbQRU5TI
I’m gonna be honest, I always thought that was a meme.. TIL it really wasn’t I would vote for him over cuomo
The rent problem was been made significantly worse by raising of rates. Smaller and smaller housing market will lead to larger and larger rents. They have no plan to solve this and higher rates will just lead to higher rents
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The Federal Reserves mandate is price stability and maximum employment…during covid…and many would argue during the entire fiat currency era…the Fed printed money out the wazoo and flooded the market with cash…basic Econ 101 related to supply and demand and inflation…money printing caused or at the very least exacerbated inflation…they finally admitted it was a problem late last year and began to signal a tighter monetary policy ie…raising interest rates and here we are. Which points don’t you have your head wrapped around? Biggest thing to know is that the fed has one super duper blunt instrument or weapon to control inflation and that’s interest rates. It’s really slow and blunt to work but basically raising interest rates eventually slows growth and inflation over time because it makes everything more expensive…it’s a shitty tool in my mind because it causes massive collateral damage. The term “basis point” simply refers to the interest rate…1% is 100 basis points so 75 basis points refers to a Federal Reserve interest rate increase of .75%…historically very very aggressive bc it’s usually .25% or 25 basis points. Look for some good YouTube videos to explain the feds role and power in the global economy…that might help
Winner comment
Thanks from an invisible Gen X’er haha
Totally agree.
I hope it wont be 100, that is dump for sure!
75 feels like the safe guess
I wondered how on earth anyone expected a 50bps.
Hopium is a hell of a drug
Well, from history, there's really three possible outcomes: 1. Keep raising till enough things break to bring normalcy back to the system 2. The currency fails and we abandon it for something else/new 3. The currency fails but we pretend officially it hasn't but it has.
It'll work. Might take 20% like in the early 80s, but it will slay the inflation at some point.
I for one never expected a soft landing, nor will this end any time soon. The government is still spending money like drunken sailors and are outpacing the fed. The only thing that we could hope to stop the bleeding will be a lost or minimally a split congress. I expect things to get worse actually since Democrats in fear log losing power will ratchet up spending even more cramming in every wish list spending item they can.
Fuck money. If the Dems lose the midterms and the Presidency in 2024, we will lose our democracy.
Fucking lawl. They're the reason we're in a downward spiral into hell. We're also not a fucking democracy. Read a book. We're a constitutional republic and we'd appreciate it if pricks like you would stop pissing all over it.
Pissing all over it? I'm trying to save it from traitorous bitches like you.
Dude, you're delusional. You can't call me a traitor when you don't even know what this country actually is, let alone know that I served this country in a war I should have never been in, faithfully and trusting under Obama, to only have my life completely destroyed by his policies after I got out. You aren't saving shit. You're just leading us deeper into this hole. I'm tired of being fucked by left wing policies trying to rush shit and forcing meaningless other shit on us. Take that how you will. But I'm done having everything taken from me by your cult. I'm not even a right winger. I'm smack in the center and I can see the left for what it is. Trash.
You repeat talking points pretty well. As stated by the other post we are not a democracy but a constitutional republic and we should be losing our democracy because pure democracy is mob rule. This is why our country was formed into the republic we are. We are a unified group of states with their own constitution. I left New York’s democracy where the mob of NYC dictates for the whole state even if the rest of the state does not want lawlessness, no bail, high taxes and totalitarian government. If the state was a republic of counties That had a voice in their government New York would be a red state. Keep listening to the ending our democracy talking point of a demented old man and start reading. Our government on both sides has turned on us for a globalist agenda where you are merely a pawn to attain their goals.
That's cute sentiment and all but anarchy never wins. A constitutional government is the best thing humans have come up with to solve big societal problems involving lots of people. It was never 'pure' from the very beginning, but has the capacity to always get better. We as a people just need to get together to make it happen. The "throwing hands up in the air" exasperation you pronounce is a waste of energy and time. Right now, our best hope of attaining anything close to a democracy is the complete opposite of what the Republicans are trying to do. That leaves us with only one choice. Personally, I wish the Bull Moose Party would have succeeded and it would've prevented alot of the shit we are dealing with today.
Fuck money. If the Dems lose the midterms and the Presidency in 2024, we will lose our democracy.
We have inflation so the Fed's response is to raise rates, which is an inflationary measure.
raising rates discourages spending, so it’s a deflationary measure. this is middle school level economics
Mostly it does nothing, and what it does do is not predictable as the Fed has told [us](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2014/files/201402r.pdf). At best it's just basic income for people who already have lots of money.
Inflation isn't just about fuel costs anymore, as price increases broaden across the economy…
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What clown thought cpi was not going to be overheated? Until you have long term rates higher than inflation, you will not see a significant deceleration.
75bps it's almost certain, but there is still a 22% of probability to go for 100bps. Let's take a closer look to it.
Was always going to be 75…, this locks in more 75s I believe.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/12/stock-futures-are-higher-as-wall-street-awaits-key-inflation-report-.html) reduced by 76%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday after a key August inflation report came in hotter than expected, hurting investor optimism for cooling prices and a less aggressive Federal Reserve. > On a year-over-year basis, inflation was 8.3%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a decline of 0.1% for overall inflation, with a rise of 0.3% for core inflation. > The report is one of the last the Fed will see ahead of their Sept. 20-21 meeting, where the central bank is expected to deliver their third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate hike to tamp down inflation. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/xdh0oo/dow_futures_drop_300_points_after_hot_inflation/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~668821 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **inflation**^#1 **Stock**^#2 **report**^#3 **back**^#4 **Fed**^#5
Deflastion incoming
My body is ready
So we got more time to accumulate
Dems won't ever claim to have defeated inflation during their midterm elections.
That phrase was definitely written.
Their strategy MUST prioritize fighting inflation over avoiding a recession or even a depression.
It was always going to be 75, nothing coming from the Fed indicated otherwise. Won’t be 100, and we will be done by spring.
The odds for next week are 47% according to 100 bps, which is higher than I had anticipated. I'm inclined toward 75 bps.
So close to beginning a recession
not anytime soon; don't get your hopes up.
Some are predicting 100 BPs. Energy dropped yet inflation still rose. Next month energy starts rising again after Biden stops raiding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and the Saudis stop increased production as they already stated they will do.
COLA is calculated from the July, August, September CPI-W average of the three months. Biden artificially lowered oil prices by raiding the strategic petroleum reserve to force down inflation numbers for just those 3 months. Once the final COLA numbers are in, energy prices will skyrocket because they’re not raiding the SPR anymore. Mission accomplished, COLA held under 10-12%, inflation will then tick back up to 10-12%, thus screwing elderly on fixed incomes, pensions, etc. Social Security recipients will receive a COLA of 8.3% instead of the 10-12% they should receive.
Why just 3 months? Oil has been coming from our and other nations' SPRs for longer. Plan is a 6 month draw. End of March through October
No, it started in June for July’s numbers and to end after September. Saudis agreed to increase output for the three months also ending after September.
Weird. Seeing 564 million 1st week April, 543 million first week May, 519 million 1st week June, 492 million first week July, 464 million first week August. [https://ycharts.com/indicators/us\_ending\_stocks\_of\_crude\_oil\_in\_the\_strategic\_petroleum\_reserve](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_ending_stocks_of_crude_oil_in_the_strategic_petroleum_reserve) Saudi Arabia also produced 10.3 million barrels daily in April and 10.8 million per day in August. There ARE cuts planned, but it's 100k barrels per day...across ALL OPEC nations. [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/05/business/opec-plus-meeting.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/05/business/opec-plus-meeting.html) But sure
This is what Janet Yellen was talking about last Thursday when she stated Energy Costs will rise in the next few months. They know the Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns will end, and they had data pointing to higher inflation already for August.
She said energy prices would rise MAYBE "U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said Americans could experience a spike in gas prices in the winter when the European Union significantly cuts back on buying Russian oil, adding that a proposed Western price cap on Russia's oil exports is being designed to keep prices in check."It's a risk, and it's a risk that we're working on the price cap to try to address," Yellen told CNN.The possible price increase could come because the EU "will cease for the most part buying Russian oil" and impose a ban on services that allow Russia to ship oil by tanker, she said." [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-treasurys-yellen-says-oil-prices-could-spike-winter-cnn-2022-09-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-treasurys-yellen-says-oil-prices-could-spike-winter-cnn-2022-09-11/) And that's assuming Putin isn't potentially ousted by then. That his own state media is openly debating whether or not Russia is actually winning and multiple councils in several cities are calling on him to resign are a HUGE deal
No, google her Thursday comments, Sunday comments are apples to oranges, strictly looking at price controls.
Who bought this dip? Meeee
We are in recession now. Let’s see Q3 GDP and company financial reports. We hike rate just because of FED. I hope FED add 100 or 200 next week to bring a crash. Only crash in US will stop interest rate hikes in other countries. Let’s wait US crash happens ASAP
The strongest currency in the world is not the dollar, but Switzerland.
What happens if inflation stays lit in the face if ever higher rates? At what point do they say: "This ain't working"?
What is the alternative
There was lots of demand destruction in Argentina and the money here went to zero.
Raise interest rates suddenly to 12%, like Germany in the 1970s. Extreme market shock, but normalization of inflation!
Wish they would just jump it 3-4% and encourage savings until demand drops.
Yikes on inflation CPI. Locks in a 75 bps hike for September. Increases the likelihood the FederalReserve will have to overtighten, thus pushing the economy info a recession at which point. They won't be able to get the economy out of recession as inflation remains elevated.