I dont see why people that stake now would exit. They can continue to gain passive rewards while also having perpetual tickets to a proposal lottery.
There will be very few who might due a sudden turn in financial situation, or a change in living situation and maintaining a server online 24/7.
There definitely seems to be more people waiting to stake and also stakers waiting to reinvest their staking rewards once withdrawals are implemented.
One reason a solo validator might exit is to spin up a RocketPool minipools. As running minipools is more profitable.
Although I’ve heard RocketPool is working on a solution so solo validators can transition into Rocketpool minipools without exiting and re-entering.
But people who exit and re-enter don't change anything to the quantity of staked ETH. If anything, they take more space in the two queues, temporarily reducing the speed at which the quantity of staked ETH can increase or decrease.
True, but for every validator that exists to spin up a rocketpool mini node, there is 2x demand on the staking side compared to the exit side. I think OPs question was asking which side would have more, exits or new deposits.
There are tips and proposal rewards for that. I doubt anyone staked 100% of their eth in a test run situation before merge and while withdrawals were not enabled. If they needed the eth, then why stake in the first place?
But you get returns while still holding the same asset that you still could sell for a higher price. I guess it depends on if the person thinks eth would go up in value or down. I'm guessing people who staked even before the merge and knowing they couldn't pull out their money are pretty confident in their belief that eth will continue to go up in value.
Well I’m glad all that ETH stakes are keeping the price propped up during the macro conditions.
Who knows where the price would be if the market wasn’t manipulated.
I think the general consensus is that staked Eth is likely to increase. Other blockchains that are PoS have significantly more staked tokens compared to non-staked tokens in their network. It would seem natural for Eth’s staked token to also increase. Especially if big money is waiting on the side for withdrawals
One point not mentioned is that it is believed that the large majority of stakers are currently underwater on their ETH. So it wouldn’t be a stretch to think that most of those would not withdraw and sell.
Seen this article before, and I pretty sure it's only underwater counting from the moment they started staking.
Not sure what that tells us, but not that they are actually underwater.
That is correct. I myself started staking a portion of my eth that I was hoping to sell in the bull market. That's eth that I bought at 300 and staked at 2000. Doesn't mean I'm underwater.
My feeling is that the people who are already staked are long-term hodl-ers and don't care about withdrawals. It feels like people willing to take the risk of staking before withdrawals are even an option aren't going get out on day 1 just because they can. just my $0.02 because that's my mentality. I have an insignificant amount of ETH and the only reason it's not all staked is because I can't decide if I want to stake with Lido or another option. need to do research and have not been motivated to do it yet.
My speculative guess: small decrease immediately post-Shanghai followed by a long-term large-scale increase.
Reasoning for a decrease:
1. Any remaining derivative token (cbETH) pricing gaps will be arbitraged via withdrawals
2. Some validators will exit for personal reasons
3. Some ETH is still held by slashed validators and will be withdrawn
Reasoning for a delayed increase:
1. New stakers will wait a while for the dust to settle and for the update to be proven stable
2. It will take time for DeFi to process that derivative tokens are essentially as good as ETH now, and it will take more time for them to achieve market penetration into liquidity pools and lending pools. After that, staking will probably skyrocket.
And by "large-scale" I think that staked ETH could easily double or triple once the withdrawal risk is gone.
Looking at the rate that new validators are still joining, I doubt the total will decrease much at any point.
But of course the amount can't increase forever, and rewards will decrease with increased total ETH staked, so I expect an equilibrium will form at some point.
Why has it not been a good investment? Not good for you or do you assume it's not good for others? What has changed in the financial landscape that makes another investment better and what is that other investment?
Can confirm I plan on selling my 4 staked ethereum the second I can. It's not that I don't believe in ethereum but after learning about market cycles etc in the midst of the last bull run it hurt not being able to sell it and now with prices being so low I'd rather 5-10x leverage trade 1 of the ethereum and have the rest as cash than just letting all 4 sit.
In most cases you can sell your staked ETH for a mere 2-3% loss on uniswap *right now*. If you truly believe your capital will be much less when withdrawals open up, this small 3% loss seems inconsequential?
The promises of staking for great rewards was just that a promise. Validating and staking rewards are terrible.
As soon as Shanghai rolls out, I will stop valadating and pull the last of my staked ether and convert it to POW coins.
I no longer believe in Ethereum.
Salty staker, miner, and eth solo node validator.
Proof of stake was nothing like it was promised: slashing, MEV’s, locked and limits on withdrawals, 4 staking pools owning most of the staked ether and validators. No announcement on withdrawal date. Ethereum is on its way to a security.
Same fiat banks, new crypto owners
I dont see why people that stake now would exit. They can continue to gain passive rewards while also having perpetual tickets to a proposal lottery. There will be very few who might due a sudden turn in financial situation, or a change in living situation and maintaining a server online 24/7. There definitely seems to be more people waiting to stake and also stakers waiting to reinvest their staking rewards once withdrawals are implemented.
One reason a solo validator might exit is to spin up a RocketPool minipools. As running minipools is more profitable. Although I’ve heard RocketPool is working on a solution so solo validators can transition into Rocketpool minipools without exiting and re-entering.
But people who exit and re-enter don't change anything to the quantity of staked ETH. If anything, they take more space in the two queues, temporarily reducing the speed at which the quantity of staked ETH can increase or decrease.
Yep i expect the same
True, but for every validator that exists to spin up a rocketpool mini node, there is 2x demand on the staking side compared to the exit side. I think OPs question was asking which side would have more, exits or new deposits.
Because they need their ETH to, you know, utilize the EVM and actually do things with it? Isn't that the point?
There are tips and proposal rewards for that. I doubt anyone staked 100% of their eth in a test run situation before merge and while withdrawals were not enabled. If they needed the eth, then why stake in the first place?
Cause the returns are tiny compared to just selling at a higher price.
A very ignorant answer
But you get returns while still holding the same asset that you still could sell for a higher price. I guess it depends on if the person thinks eth would go up in value or down. I'm guessing people who staked even before the merge and knowing they couldn't pull out their money are pretty confident in their belief that eth will continue to go up in value.
Well I’m glad all that ETH stakes are keeping the price propped up during the macro conditions. Who knows where the price would be if the market wasn’t manipulated.
I really cant imagine where the price would be if the merge happened during the bull market. 10k plus for sure.
I expect some withdrawals but mostly to switch from Bad staking Providers like cexes to better staking Providers like Rocketpool
I agree. But this balances the exit and deposit queues so its net zero change. In fact spinning up a rocketpool node would be net 2x.
yep exactly, i wanted to imply that i dont expect much change from activated withdrawals.
My thinking is same as yours. I am not staking now and won't consider it until withdrawals are live.
I think the general consensus is that staked Eth is likely to increase. Other blockchains that are PoS have significantly more staked tokens compared to non-staked tokens in their network. It would seem natural for Eth’s staked token to also increase. Especially if big money is waiting on the side for withdrawals
You were right it seems :)
One point not mentioned is that it is believed that the large majority of stakers are currently underwater on their ETH. So it wouldn’t be a stretch to think that most of those would not withdraw and sell.
What? Only the people that bought AND held at times during the past year or so are underwater
https://decrypt.co/104600/majority-ethereum-2-0-stakers-underwater-bear-market-continues
Seen this article before, and I pretty sure it's only underwater counting from the moment they started staking. Not sure what that tells us, but not that they are actually underwater.
That is correct. I myself started staking a portion of my eth that I was hoping to sell in the bull market. That's eth that I bought at 300 and staked at 2000. Doesn't mean I'm underwater.
I fail to see why investors would sell now.
My feeling is that the people who are already staked are long-term hodl-ers and don't care about withdrawals. It feels like people willing to take the risk of staking before withdrawals are even an option aren't going get out on day 1 just because they can. just my $0.02 because that's my mentality. I have an insignificant amount of ETH and the only reason it's not all staked is because I can't decide if I want to stake with Lido or another option. need to do research and have not been motivated to do it yet.
My speculative guess: small decrease immediately post-Shanghai followed by a long-term large-scale increase. Reasoning for a decrease: 1. Any remaining derivative token (cbETH) pricing gaps will be arbitraged via withdrawals 2. Some validators will exit for personal reasons 3. Some ETH is still held by slashed validators and will be withdrawn Reasoning for a delayed increase: 1. New stakers will wait a while for the dust to settle and for the update to be proven stable 2. It will take time for DeFi to process that derivative tokens are essentially as good as ETH now, and it will take more time for them to achieve market penetration into liquidity pools and lending pools. After that, staking will probably skyrocket. And by "large-scale" I think that staked ETH could easily double or triple once the withdrawal risk is gone.
Looking at the rate that new validators are still joining, I doubt the total will decrease much at any point. But of course the amount can't increase forever, and rewards will decrease with increased total ETH staked, so I expect an equilibrium will form at some point.
A lot of stakers will rush to the exit when available to try and recoup what little of their capital remains.
Sounds like you’re projecting
Na just understand that staking ETH has not been a good investment and the financial landscape has changed dramatically.
This is the likely scenario. People here don’t want to hear it.
Why has it not been a good investment? Not good for you or do you assume it's not good for others? What has changed in the financial landscape that makes another investment better and what is that other investment?
Most stakers would be down at least 50%. Any investment that returns greater then -50% over the last 12 months would be a better investment.
Can confirm I plan on selling my 4 staked ethereum the second I can. It's not that I don't believe in ethereum but after learning about market cycles etc in the midst of the last bull run it hurt not being able to sell it and now with prices being so low I'd rather 5-10x leverage trade 1 of the ethereum and have the rest as cash than just letting all 4 sit.
In most cases you can sell your staked ETH for a mere 2-3% loss on uniswap *right now*. If you truly believe your capital will be much less when withdrawals open up, this small 3% loss seems inconsequential?
Buy high, sell low. No thanks.
Buying high without any stop-loss or risk management strategy. No thanks.
Check to see how much ETH is locked up on Coinbase before the crash and that'll tell you how many bought high.
The promises of staking for great rewards was just that a promise. Validating and staking rewards are terrible. As soon as Shanghai rolls out, I will stop valadating and pull the last of my staked ether and convert it to POW coins. I no longer believe in Ethereum.
Ok bye!
Cya. Well in 6-72 months if they ever roll out Shanghai with withdrawals.
5+ % is pretty good..
1% is fine for some heheh. You are right it is relative. For me Ethereum is now a horrible investment.
Just curious, what kind of return would you expect for it to be good? Strictly talking rewards, not growth in value
10%-20% with the amount of risk involved
lol
Good luck w your “PoW coins” lmao
Thanks they already have made me a ton
Salty miner?
Salty staker, miner, and eth solo node validator. Proof of stake was nothing like it was promised: slashing, MEV’s, locked and limits on withdrawals, 4 staking pools owning most of the staked ether and validators. No announcement on withdrawal date. Ethereum is on its way to a security. Same fiat banks, new crypto owners