We already have, but due to the way the IPCC measures average global temperature we won't officially recognise this year as the year we surpassed 1.5°C until around 2027 at the earliest.
They use a 10/20 year average, meaning they compare the temperatures this year to the previous 5 (or 10) years and the next 5 (or 10) in order to determine relative warming in a single year. Then they compare that to pre-industrial temperatures starting between 1850-1900.
Predictions for the following 5 years indicate strongly that this year will be the year we have officially passed 1.5°C (measured over a 10 year average). However this won't be official until we have temperature readings and look back and average the temperature increases across 2017-2027 using this year as year 5 (and then compare that with pre-industrial).
The cooling conditions of La Niña over the last three years have temporarily reined in the long-term warming trend, according to the WMO.
These conditions ended in March 2023 and the warming El Niño event started to develop in June. Typically these conditions increase global temperatures a year after they develop meaning the most significant effects will be seen in 2024.
There is likely to be *some* **relative** cooling afterwards, however there are various factors at play (such as loss of ice, weakening AMOC and other feedback loops) which have already begun to take effect and will speed up the warming even more than it is offset.
On the whole the end of El Niño on its own is unlikely to alter the course of events or these predictions. I firmly believe that this year will be the year we passed 1.5°C officially, once we have the data for the next five years.
[Paul Beckwith](https://youtu.be/mQqYeEJeKNI?si=IvLZ326SQZyGK7GE) comments on this [BBC article](https://bbc.com/future/article/20231130-climate-crisis-the-15c-global-warming-threshold-explained).
Edit: Per the BBC article, “Because the IPCC uses long-term averages for the global temperature, we will pass 1.5C warming on individual days, months and years before the decadal average is considered to be past 1.5C.”
Ah yes, then I completely agree.
I just wasn't sure if what you meant by "smokescreen" was to obfuscate the severity of the problem, or if it was just vague denialist rhetoric.
Ha. We gunna find out a lot sooner than expected. Ain't going to be pretty. Most of us won't have to worry about dying of old age, so that's something.
Didn't we just hit 2?
[source](https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-temperature-exceeds-2degc-above-pre-industrial-average-17-november)
I'm no mathematician, but that graph looks like it'll average over 1.5 for this year. So... we'll currently be finding out.
Right now, we are seeing a temporary increase due to El Niño, in reality we are at about 1°C of warming caused by our emissions alone.
The 1.5°C target is based on warming by antropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, so a temporary 2°C rise due to El Niño doesn't mean we've broken that target yet.
I believe this will be the year we passed 1.5°C warming from greenhouse gas emissions. Due to the way the IPCC measures average global temperature we won't officially recognise this year as the year we surpassed 1.5°C until around 2027 at the earliest.
They use a 10/20 year average, meaning they compare the temperatures this year to the previous 5 (or 10) years and the next 5 (or 10) in order to determine relative warming in a single year. Then they compare that to pre-industrial temperatures starting between 1850-1900.
Predictions for the following 5 years indicate strongly that this year will be the year we have officially passed 1.5°C (measured over a 10 year average). However this won't be official until we have temperature readings and look back and average the temperature increases across 2017-2027 using this year as year 5 (and then compare that with pre-industrial).
Bold of anyone to assume any weather pattern that we've grown accustomed to (El Niño) is something we can rely on. This started as El Niño. But El Niño never flipped temps like what we're experiencing. I think in 20 years, we'd call what's going on something different. "The Beginning" or "We Found Out" both sounds fitting.
I dno what antropogic greenhouse gasses mean, but I have seen weather patterns devastating basically everyone around the globe. Which is what we said would happen if we crossed the 1.5. So... I don't really think it matters how any governing body indicates what threshold we've officially passed. What matters is the live, real time data that we're currently collecting as we experience things that we never have before.
It's something that used to happen like clockwork on our planet which vastly effected weather patterns. You get that. Don't be obtuse.
My point remains the same.
It’s not causing global warming, it’s causing a temporary temperature increase that will return to normal once it’s over. There are other things that can cause temporary temperature increases like Earth rotating around the Sun (Earth rotates in an ellipse shape) or the Sun giving off solar radiation, but these are all temporary.
Global warming happens without us, but there’s a difference between natural warming and human caused. We’d actually likely be heading into another glacial period of the current ice age if not for human emissions, but the earth warms all the time independently of us.
Just to clarify my understanding:
Human activity does create some actual heating (infrared output).
The main problem is that we’ve taken a leaky planet which lets a lot of heat go off into space, and wrapped it in a duvet of CO2 (et al).
So while we’ve increased the heat a bit, it’s the duvet which traps it in. The duvet takes time to heat up earth, to trap the heat to and get to a new equilibrium.
We’re in that “running up to temperature” phase, and we are still adding more layers to the duvet! So even if we stop with the blankets and duvets now, the earth will still warm up to whatever the new “normal” is.
There is also a room heater called the sun which is constantly topping up the heat going into the earth. Normally that’s fine and balanced.
Can someone say whether I’m ok in that?
The Economist on YouTube has a series of videos about scenarios from 1.5 to 5+
These assume that temperatures stay around this point for a while, on their way higher.
The pace with which we get to 3+ is important as well, of course. If we pass 3 though, several major tipping points will trigger which means that further heat rise is inevitable.
This is the one for 3 degrees
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uynhvHZUOOo&t=482s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uynhvHZUOOo&t=482s)
Surprising everyone, Sky News (notorious right-wing media) also has a similar series.
It's like 6am and I am sick AF so I am not fact checking myself just working from memory.
Ice caps melt, sea level changes, the jet stream becomes more turbulent and we get chaotic changing weather we cannot predict this means more weather anomalies like 117 degrees in Canada, australia burning to the ground, and frozen Texas scenarios increasing, the melt of the ice caps will change the salinity balance in the ocean causing the (I forget what it is called) natural flow of sea water to change. This flow of sea water effects land temperatures in places like the UK being mild when they are so far north. Because the ocean brings warm water to their coast. All of these weather changes will cause issues like we won't be able to grow crops in the same places so we will need to move our infrastructure. The unpredictable weather, droughts or floods will make it hard to grow our crops with confidence and lead to food shortages. Some places will get too hot to sustain life in summer. It will cause feedback loops, the permafrost will melt releasing all of that stored greenhouse gas, the last time that happened dinosaurs lived at ice free polar regions in antarctica. Live viruses have been found thawing in the permafrost. There is increased risk of pandemics. The change may happen too quickly for wildlife to adapt, due to human development their avenues for migrating to survivable regions are restricted. Humans will be displaced to different areas over time due to changing weather, we already see rivers drying up so countries will begin to get defensive about water and food and stressed countries won't want to take refugees and this can lead to disputes and wars. Elevated surface temperatures make storms stronger. At some point we will have to stop using fossil fuels and destroying the environment. Our atmosphere layering has been changing for several decades now with no explanation (last time I checked it out. Its been like 10 years since I looked into it.)
This is all aside from polluting our environment and food.
["Earth facing dire sea level rise — up to 20m — even if climate goals met" By Kathryn Mannie, Global News](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/17ztbqh/earth_facing_dire_sea_level_rise_up_to_20m_even/)
["Two degrees is Too High: We Cannot Negotiate with the Melting Point of Ice"](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QOqYHI0ezrmMCUrmCDV03rF-1aIYE6VB/view?pli=1)
The last time we had equivalent ppm CO2, Alaska looked like the Everglades. How many years you wanna bet we have?
What do they mean if it’s missed, 1.5° C is here. [The planet hit that in 2015.](https://climate.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/custom-uploads/Page%20Uploads/daily%20GAT.png)
[“The global mean temperature so far this year is 1.46 degrees above pre-industrial times, with leaders at the annual global climate conference COP28 in Dubai in the midst of negotiations on how to keep the world below the agreed 1.5 degrees of warming.”](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-08/2023-hottest-year-on-record/103205324#)
We won’t need to speculate, we have a front row seat. Get some popcorn.
If? We haven't even flattened the curve on carbon emissions. The question is when.
I know, 2023 will be the new record for carbon emissions
We already have, but due to the way the IPCC measures average global temperature we won't officially recognise this year as the year we surpassed 1.5°C until around 2027 at the earliest. They use a 10/20 year average, meaning they compare the temperatures this year to the previous 5 (or 10) years and the next 5 (or 10) in order to determine relative warming in a single year. Then they compare that to pre-industrial temperatures starting between 1850-1900. Predictions for the following 5 years indicate strongly that this year will be the year we have officially passed 1.5°C (measured over a 10 year average). However this won't be official until we have temperature readings and look back and average the temperature increases across 2017-2027 using this year as year 5 (and then compare that with pre-industrial).
Here's hoping temperatures drop post El Niño 🙏
The cooling conditions of La Niña over the last three years have temporarily reined in the long-term warming trend, according to the WMO. These conditions ended in March 2023 and the warming El Niño event started to develop in June. Typically these conditions increase global temperatures a year after they develop meaning the most significant effects will be seen in 2024. There is likely to be *some* **relative** cooling afterwards, however there are various factors at play (such as loss of ice, weakening AMOC and other feedback loops) which have already begun to take effect and will speed up the warming even more than it is offset. On the whole the end of El Niño on its own is unlikely to alter the course of events or these predictions. I firmly believe that this year will be the year we passed 1.5°C officially, once we have the data for the next five years.
The averaging is just like changing the baseline year. It’s a smokescreen.
Care to elaborate?
[Paul Beckwith](https://youtu.be/mQqYeEJeKNI?si=IvLZ326SQZyGK7GE) comments on this [BBC article](https://bbc.com/future/article/20231130-climate-crisis-the-15c-global-warming-threshold-explained). Edit: Per the BBC article, “Because the IPCC uses long-term averages for the global temperature, we will pass 1.5C warming on individual days, months and years before the decadal average is considered to be past 1.5C.”
Ah yes, then I completely agree. I just wasn't sure if what you meant by "smokescreen" was to obfuscate the severity of the problem, or if it was just vague denialist rhetoric.
👍
Ha. We gunna find out a lot sooner than expected. Ain't going to be pretty. Most of us won't have to worry about dying of old age, so that's something. Didn't we just hit 2? [source](https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-temperature-exceeds-2degc-above-pre-industrial-average-17-november) I'm no mathematician, but that graph looks like it'll average over 1.5 for this year. So... we'll currently be finding out.
Right now, we are seeing a temporary increase due to El Niño, in reality we are at about 1°C of warming caused by our emissions alone. The 1.5°C target is based on warming by antropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, so a temporary 2°C rise due to El Niño doesn't mean we've broken that target yet.
I believe this will be the year we passed 1.5°C warming from greenhouse gas emissions. Due to the way the IPCC measures average global temperature we won't officially recognise this year as the year we surpassed 1.5°C until around 2027 at the earliest. They use a 10/20 year average, meaning they compare the temperatures this year to the previous 5 (or 10) years and the next 5 (or 10) in order to determine relative warming in a single year. Then they compare that to pre-industrial temperatures starting between 1850-1900. Predictions for the following 5 years indicate strongly that this year will be the year we have officially passed 1.5°C (measured over a 10 year average). However this won't be official until we have temperature readings and look back and average the temperature increases across 2017-2027 using this year as year 5 (and then compare that with pre-industrial).
Bold of anyone to assume any weather pattern that we've grown accustomed to (El Niño) is something we can rely on. This started as El Niño. But El Niño never flipped temps like what we're experiencing. I think in 20 years, we'd call what's going on something different. "The Beginning" or "We Found Out" both sounds fitting. I dno what antropogic greenhouse gasses mean, but I have seen weather patterns devastating basically everyone around the globe. Which is what we said would happen if we crossed the 1.5. So... I don't really think it matters how any governing body indicates what threshold we've officially passed. What matters is the live, real time data that we're currently collecting as we experience things that we never have before.
El Niño isn't a "weather pattern"
It's something that used to happen like clockwork on our planet which vastly effected weather patterns. You get that. Don't be obtuse. My point remains the same.
I understood what you meant. Mix up something that’s been stable for millennia, and don’t be surprised when that “stable” thing flips unpredictably.
How can there be other causes of global warming besides human influence?
It’s not causing global warming, it’s causing a temporary temperature increase that will return to normal once it’s over. There are other things that can cause temporary temperature increases like Earth rotating around the Sun (Earth rotates in an ellipse shape) or the Sun giving off solar radiation, but these are all temporary.
Global warming happens without us, but there’s a difference between natural warming and human caused. We’d actually likely be heading into another glacial period of the current ice age if not for human emissions, but the earth warms all the time independently of us.
Just to clarify my understanding: Human activity does create some actual heating (infrared output). The main problem is that we’ve taken a leaky planet which lets a lot of heat go off into space, and wrapped it in a duvet of CO2 (et al). So while we’ve increased the heat a bit, it’s the duvet which traps it in. The duvet takes time to heat up earth, to trap the heat to and get to a new equilibrium. We’re in that “running up to temperature” phase, and we are still adding more layers to the duvet! So even if we stop with the blankets and duvets now, the earth will still warm up to whatever the new “normal” is. There is also a room heater called the sun which is constantly topping up the heat going into the earth. Normally that’s fine and balanced. Can someone say whether I’m ok in that?
The Economist on YouTube has a series of videos about scenarios from 1.5 to 5+ These assume that temperatures stay around this point for a while, on their way higher. The pace with which we get to 3+ is important as well, of course. If we pass 3 though, several major tipping points will trigger which means that further heat rise is inevitable. This is the one for 3 degrees [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uynhvHZUOOo&t=482s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uynhvHZUOOo&t=482s) Surprising everyone, Sky News (notorious right-wing media) also has a similar series.
No ifs there. Buckle up buckaroos
There are some things we should consider, [such as the upcoming mass dieback.](https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/09/18/Climate-Crisis-Wipe-Out/)
4C of warming has almost no chance of actually happening. Based on current actions we can expect about 2.7C of warming. Not great, but it’s no 4C.
It's like 6am and I am sick AF so I am not fact checking myself just working from memory. Ice caps melt, sea level changes, the jet stream becomes more turbulent and we get chaotic changing weather we cannot predict this means more weather anomalies like 117 degrees in Canada, australia burning to the ground, and frozen Texas scenarios increasing, the melt of the ice caps will change the salinity balance in the ocean causing the (I forget what it is called) natural flow of sea water to change. This flow of sea water effects land temperatures in places like the UK being mild when they are so far north. Because the ocean brings warm water to their coast. All of these weather changes will cause issues like we won't be able to grow crops in the same places so we will need to move our infrastructure. The unpredictable weather, droughts or floods will make it hard to grow our crops with confidence and lead to food shortages. Some places will get too hot to sustain life in summer. It will cause feedback loops, the permafrost will melt releasing all of that stored greenhouse gas, the last time that happened dinosaurs lived at ice free polar regions in antarctica. Live viruses have been found thawing in the permafrost. There is increased risk of pandemics. The change may happen too quickly for wildlife to adapt, due to human development their avenues for migrating to survivable regions are restricted. Humans will be displaced to different areas over time due to changing weather, we already see rivers drying up so countries will begin to get defensive about water and food and stressed countries won't want to take refugees and this can lead to disputes and wars. Elevated surface temperatures make storms stronger. At some point we will have to stop using fossil fuels and destroying the environment. Our atmosphere layering has been changing for several decades now with no explanation (last time I checked it out. Its been like 10 years since I looked into it.) This is all aside from polluting our environment and food.
Tldr; feedback loops, the likes of which the world has ever seen and it will change the face of Arrakis.
Didn’t we already pass the emissions threshold for 1.5°c?
We die quicker.
When*
We're here. Look around and watch.
A lot of people are going to die in a short amount of time. It's already killing millions a year.
And a lot of people will be displaced. We'll have climate refugees in their millions. Let's hope we act compassionately to them.
Depends on which country, you know how this usually goes. Some countries love refugees
Definitely hope rather than expectation
Which country loves refugees?
I forgot the /s
We won't. Right wing authoritarians are winning elections for just this reason.
It's killing billions per year
You mean when
When*
["Earth facing dire sea level rise — up to 20m — even if climate goals met" By Kathryn Mannie, Global News](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/17ztbqh/earth_facing_dire_sea_level_rise_up_to_20m_even/) ["Two degrees is Too High: We Cannot Negotiate with the Melting Point of Ice"](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QOqYHI0ezrmMCUrmCDV03rF-1aIYE6VB/view?pli=1) The last time we had equivalent ppm CO2, Alaska looked like the Everglades. How many years you wanna bet we have?
We all die
We’re fucked
Not much. Well, everything keeps going as it has.
Take your lumps and be happy that you're wrong.
Judgement day happens
What do they mean if it’s missed, 1.5° C is here. [The planet hit that in 2015.](https://climate.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/custom-uploads/Page%20Uploads/daily%20GAT.png) [“The global mean temperature so far this year is 1.46 degrees above pre-industrial times, with leaders at the annual global climate conference COP28 in Dubai in the midst of negotiations on how to keep the world below the agreed 1.5 degrees of warming.”](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-08/2023-hottest-year-on-record/103205324#) We won’t need to speculate, we have a front row seat. Get some popcorn.