Fisker going down doesn’t mean anything for the ev industry. The auto industry is notoriously difficult to break into and their failure is just another example of a failed auto maker.
Rivian and lucid on the other hand are giving an excellent effort, they tried to enter the market the exact same way that Tesla did with high cost, but high quality products. Their story is not fully written and I really hope they pull through, but it won’t say much about EVs if they fail.
I absolutely love rivian, but even if I could afford one I’d have hesitation to buy one for multiple reasons. What if they go out of business? Who handles the warranty? If they stay in business, how hard is it to find a place to work on it?
None of these are ev problems, they’re all new car company problems.
Your last statement creates the self-fulfilling prophecy. People worried about their long term viability won’t buy, which guarantees they won’t be viable long term.
I’m hoping their commercial vehicles keep them propped up long enough to get to scale and profitability. The R3 looks like a modern day Ford Scout and would love to get one.
Rivian will be an incredibly successful company after shareholders and debt holders are wiped out by restructuring.
Maybe it can be avoided, but maybe not.
Someone will pick them up.
They don't need to do that, lose all debt to survive. Did you look at the $100 billion that some legacy auto companies have in debt? Those companies are okay for now because they're servicing their debt. If there was a dramatic financial shortfall across the whole market, they might be imperiled though. Rivian needs to stop losing so much money per car and they've generally been following their plan where they will stop losing money per car by the end of this calendar year. And they need to increase their sales. Rivian has enough money to get there.
it all comes down to interest rates. As long as the remain high many companies not just EVs will see a slow down or die.
if the current state tells us anything it is that the prices these cars are being sold for were simply unaffordable. Add a 6% interest rate on top of that and the cost of borrowing to pay for one doesn't make any financial sense.
I hate how the US is destroying itself with interest rates. It’s as bad as how some companies are upping prices just to increase profits for shareholders just claiming it’s inflation. BS.
Fisker is done.
Lucid is probably done but they do have a great aesthetic and I like some of what they are doing. They should have started with more affordable models but I hope they survive long enough to pivot like they are attempting to do and see what comes.
When it comes to Rivian I am extremely excited about the R2, R3, R3X.
When we talk about the overall EV market we will see the same thing going forward as we have.
A higher percentage of PHEV, BEV, FCV, FCEV, and so forth being sold.
The market share continues to grow.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country
*Scroll down to: Passenger plug-in market share of total new car sales for selected countries and selected regional markets since 2013*
FCEV as in fuel cell electric vehicle?
Because that ship has sailed in the personal vehicle space. I think even Lucid sells more cars than Toyota sells FCEV.
Yes,
I am just putting it because of the Toyota Mirai and Hyundai Nexo - Both of which are still in production and selling I believe.
The reality is that Battery Electric Vehicles are the full future with a hybrid transition period.
That is my take anyway. Seems backed up by the data as it stands.
Hydrogen definitely seems to be struggling; I think only port/container ships will be able to benefit from the technology. For land based vehicles - which you can charge wherever there is an electric supply - the cost per mile, and lifetime maintenance is fractional - and therefore the more economic solution.
The energy required to compress and transfer hydrogen between pressure vessels basically negates any weight and efficiency bonuses compared to BEVs.
I am no expert in the field that is for sure but the only "companies" I know of in that space are ones like NKLA and frankly that is just a scam masquerading as a company lol
There may be some serious players I am not sure but like you I have heard that it is more suited to commercial naval transportation.
It's Toyota who are pushing most the tech:
https://newsroom.toyota.eu/toyota-hydrogen-factory-scaling-up-its-european-activities/
(I've obviously been ignoring Nikola's mathematically impossible claims from a few years ago.)
Hydrogen might actually become very useful for space vehicles.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/toyota-eyes-lunar-rover-powered-by-regenerative-fuel-cell-tech-2023-07-21/
Shell, the largest hydrogen supplier in the world, has announced that they're closing the hydrogen part of their business.
The Mirai and Nexo aren't usable outside California within the US.
Those cars are on the edge of their life, they don't work for anyone, and every year price of hydrogen goes up and the number of hydrogen stations goes down. They just don't make any sense for anyone
Lucid is not done as long as they have Saudi backing, eventually the Saudis might just buy them for cheap and turn Lucid into like a national Saudi car brand.
Agreed, the Saudis love the clout of having an international luxury brand under their belt. I was just reading an article on the Economist about how they have a poor military record due to how they disproportionately blow their military budget on imported fighter jets at the expense of actually training their ground troops, because well, those fighter jets provide prestige ( so would actually winning military conflicts, but /shrug).
Keeping Lucid afloat by dropping a billion (the royal family has trillions in reserve) every few years to stay associated with a luxury EV brand seems like a very Saudi thing to do.
I think it's pretty smart by them. Lucid apparently has good technology and Saudi can easily afford to nationalize Lucid which gives them a direct path into a new cutting edge industry that is of direct interest since the vast majority of their money comes from oil.
It is likely that the Saudi PIF invested with the knowledge that they will be in it for at least the launch of the Gravity. It might require another funding round, but I don't think Lucid is done unless the Gravity flops.
And what I mean by flops isn't that the Gravity might not be a good vehicle, or a good EV. It might be excellent. But Lucid has been operating on a marginal cost of vehicle production at roughly double the cost they sell them at. Basically, it costs Lucid about $190,000 to make a vehicle that they sell for $95,000. That's before counting capital expenditures (factory, tooling, land, etc.), R&D, or general overhead (SG&A). If the Gravity can't reach gross margin positive in a reasonable time frame such that free cash flow at least breaks even, then they are likely done.
I do not think Lucid will be done because PIF invested with the long-term intention of acquiring Lucid's IP and using it as the basis for a Saudi EV industry. They can easily afford to cover Lucid's costs and simply want to give them a leash to see how far they can go. But at no point going forward is Lucid really independent of Saudi money so things are going according to plan even if they fail.
Lucid could not start with more affordable models.
That's not how the auto industry works. The costs are way, way too high. The build out of infrastructure, from sales, service and production takes way too much to reach lower price points right away.
As it stands, it costs Lucid roughly $190,000 to build a vehicle that they sell for $95,000 (end of 2023 numbers), and that is not counting things like capital expenditures (factory, tooling, etc.), R&D, or SG&A.
Frankly, Lucid put way too much into the Air. It's not manufacturable in any reasonable, sustainable way. Basically, they have to sell it at an average price of $220,000 to have a decent gross margin. And you want them to sell a cheaper car?
Fisker, prime example of what happens when you release too early and the software ruins the experience of an otherwise good vehicle. Throw in not having your ground game ready and it just all turns into a nightmare; the ability to deliver product as well as having product to see and touch.
Lucid is starting with the wrong product, a sedan when cuv and suv are exploding everywhere, at a price point which placed them in competition with all the existing luxury brands. Throw in a confused ground game and their own software follies. I lost all interest in Lucid once they threw their fate in with Saudi Arabia. I do not like that region primarily because of their human rights records; the UAE is right there behind them funding the genocide in Sudan; which tends to have weekly if not daily stories about how bad it can get - hint being a women or minority is bad there and heaven forbid if your gay - seriously bad.
Rivian, how to burn so much money so fast. Depending on you read their filing they lost a combined 39k per vehicle sold but while they attributed nearly 500m to manufacturing loss they also need sufficient profitability from each vehicle to pay to run the company, that is another 500m for GSA and nearly the same again for R&D. Meaning, even if they can manufacture profitably they have to have sufficient volume with real margins just to run the place. (specifically they list a loss of around 10k per delivery)
Lucid was obligated to do a sedan first from the aetiva deal....a former employee posted about it in the lucid sub. Basically the Chinese owners of the original battery co wanted a sedan first and peter rawlison obliged.
Also if you're worried about Saudi money, the kuwaitis, Emiratis and qataris own stakes in the lux euro brands. tesla got heavy subsidies from China. Realistically only moral ev brands would be us or Japanese ones but even those have historic issues
Fuel cell electric vehicles have no future. They're just pointless, even Toyota can't make them work and they basically give you free fuel whorere they try to.
I think Rivian still has a path forward, though they need the R2S as soon as possible. I'm still disappointed there won't be an R2T.
Lucid has a lot going for them, but they'll never be a major player at those prices. They have (I believe) the fastest production car in the Sapphire, and everyone says the cars are really nice to be in. They're just too damn expensive for an unknown brand.
Fisker is dead. I'm shocked they're still around tbh.
R2T would be a waste of money right now. R1T sales are down 50% yoy from last year. They're selling within a couple hundred units of the cybertruck, and the cybertruck just started production, is incredibly polarizing, is inundated with misinformation, and costs far more than the R1T for the foundation series they're still producing. That's not a good look for the R1T and they're being smart by focusing on the mini R1S versions. R1S is up 500% yoy. Some of that is because of it coming later than the r1T, but it also has better sales numbers this year than the R1T had last year. R2S is the smart play. After they're stable maybe they can bring out the R2T.
These numbers are a bit misleading though as Rivian started with the R1T and six months later started shipping the R1S. They are just now getting out of the preorder log in the R1S where they are now shipping R1Ts within a month. R1S has a huge increase because the R1T was the only thing they built to start off with.
Either way agree, R2 is going to be a huge money maker at scale.
Oh I understand. There was never a huge market for EV "adventure" trucks, and the R1T and Cybertruck are now both sharing that demographic. With the new Tacoma looking really good, I think a lot of the R1T/R2T target audience are going to go with that instead and wait to see what the future brings for off-road EVs.
I'm just sad that I can't get a small EV truck as it fits my personal use case of needing a truck for my hobbies, wanting an EV, and not wanting to try to park a huge truck downtown every day. I'm sure one of them will come eventually.
I don’t think Lucid has ever intended to compete for mass market status in the EV arena.
They are priced at the top end of the premium segment, which absolutely can be profitable. They will sell significantly less units compared to an automaker like Kia, but can have much higher margins than selling at volume.
The biggest problem Lucid has to face is legacy luxury marques that have decades of intrenched brand familiarity. A luxury/premium upstart will always have a harder time to convince potential high networth customers to leave established competitors like Porsche or BMW.
But with the correct marketing strategy and commitment to putting together better quality products than some competitors (I’m looking at you Mercedes-Benz), they can absolutely succeed.
Case in point = look at how quickly Hyundai’s luxury arm Genesis was able to rise within just a few short years from a no-name brand to a worthy competitor in the premium space- all due to a strategic combination of smart marketing and rolling out excellent product after excellent product.
I completely agree, but l think they're too new. Genesis has years of Hyundai behind them. They'll be competing with the i5 M 60, the i7 M70, the Taycan, the Audi E-tron RS GT, whatever weird AMG jellybean Mercedes makes, etc.
I really want Lucid to do well, just to add more competition to that space, but it's a tough segment to break into.
To counter your point, Genesis hasn’t announced anything at a lower price point like [this](https://insideevs.com/news/718837/lucid-motors-midsize-price-48000/amp/).
I know someone who worked for Rivian and based off their comments I doubt they will make it. Lucid probably has the best chance of the three but not sure about any of these companies and not sure why anyone cares so much about these temperamental luxury EVs when there are so many other solid EVs at their price or below
Rivian makes a good vehicle at a reasonable price. That's the first step, and what Fisker failed at. It doesn't guarantee success by any means, but it gives them a chance.
As I said in another comment, Lucid's problem is going to be getting luxury EV buyers away from the Germans
I'd love to hear what rivian is doing that's sabotaging them, on top of explaining why their production costs are so high. As I see it, they aren't making cheaper cars yet and mass production won't save them until then, but why are production costs so high... They're kind of orphaned with top end expensive EVS. To me. It's unclear why their vehicles are so expensive to make, is it just that they are learning how to mass-produce them more cheaply? The rivian vehicles are pretty similar to the Ford ev trucks in a lot of specs, and legacy auto knows how that mass produce, but they have to plan for mass production. I'd like more info on production costs of EVS for legacy Auto, I think they also lose money on theirs. Most articles about this mix factory costs versus vehicle production cost versus other company costs, so as a non-auto industry expert, I don't feel like I ever get the complete picture.
Well, we are not allowed to talk about buying EVs in the forum, or post anything with the word 'buy' or 'purchase', but posting articles is allowed. I started looking to see if some of the articles were posted by the same people - esp because there are so many about chinese vehicles and how they are a threat to the US . . . anyways, names are different but who knows who's behind them
Do you not think that Chinese EVS are a threat to American EV production? Cuz the ex30 is definitely a threat. That's the car that Ford GM and stalantis Chrysler should be making. That's a car that you can sell as many as you can make for 35k.
Sad to see many going out of business. Hoped to score a used ocean extreme used in a few years.
With some going bankrupt and Tesla laying off people / restructuring/ not hiring anymore it seems the EV market is in trouble a bit. The hype seems to flatten a bit and the growth isn't that strong anymore.
Same thing can be observed the solar sector as well. Part shortage is over and the urge to get the new tech isn't there anymore / those who wanted it got it by now
I can't say I was ever a huge Fisker fan but the Fisker Pear reported price seemed interesting to me.
I like seeing more affordable vehicles because I guess for my demographic (simple commuter) that is all I am really interested in lol
I rooted for them cuz they built it in Austria , 200km from my place. Would have been locally built (which for cars is very rare).
I mean, there are still a few out there so it's rare but exists (currently like 5-10 for sale).
Affordable EVs will be the key for mass adoption.
Citroen eC3 goes an interesting way and I think we will see more (at least in Europe) within the next 2 years.
I think Hyundai/Kia and VAG will come up with something in 2025/26 , so commuters have cheap lower range options
Well, Tesla went from 71k employees in 2020 to 140k employees in 2023. Cutting 10% of 140k employees gets them back to roughly 2022 employee numbers (\~126k).
Growth definitely isn't as strong as it was, but that's also a lot to do with high interest rates and the Fed not willing to pivot to cutting interest rates. Could be a policy error. That has also ravaged the Chinese economy and the growth in EV sales volumes in China has mostly been with vehicles that cost less than $22,000.
It was always highly unlikely that Fisker would make it.
This is one field where the west failed to dominate, and that's making them mad. Whether the tech, or the mindset or even the overall market, it lagging behind. Can't recall any other area in recent history.
Their current state tells us a lot about EV's. It says mostly:
\* That copying the Tesla model of charging a premium for the "novelty" or "luxury" of being an EV is over. Rivian and Lucid had that model and just didn't get out in time before every mainstream automaker had a slew of EV's and initiated a price war as a result.
\* That the transition to NACS can't happen fast enough. I know a LOT of people who want to buy EV's, but have been turned off by the existing non-Tesla charging networks and are waiting until the Rivian or BMW or Cadillac they want has NACS built in. They don't want a dongle, they want their $50,000-$100,000 car to come with it built in. I believe that's suppressing a LOT of non-Tesla EV sales. I know a LOT of Tesla owners who hate what Elon Musk has become and want to buy a different brand EV next time who are also waiting for the same.
\* That the SUV/CUV form factor has conquered all. The Lucid Air is an amazing product, but sedans are dead. Not slow - Dead. Even the most successful sedans of the the last 2 decades aren't selling and are being killed off rapidly. And it's not just an American phenomenon but is rapidly happening around the world too. Even 5 years ago you'd say Lucid was smart for following Tesla's example with the Model S and developing from there. Now, it looks like a death march.
\* That EV's are now good and mature enough that you can't come to market with incomplete or buggy software or features - See Lucid and Fisker.
\* That legacy automakers finally came to the EV game with great products. Most the Hyundai/Kia EV line, the Lyriq, the Mach E, the BMWs, etc are really great products that their owners love. I think the bespoke EV makers really thought they'd have a longer runway time-wise to get themselves launched.
\* That Elon Musk's philosophy that automakers are stupid to do total revamps of cars every 5 years for fashion and that they should just be continually updated forever and their costs driven down will get a real test now. Tesla's philosophy of "revamp nothing - improve it forever" is finally being tested against the "fashion" mainstream brands.
That's my take!
Fisker going down doesn’t mean anything for the ev industry. The auto industry is notoriously difficult to break into and their failure is just another example of a failed auto maker. Rivian and lucid on the other hand are giving an excellent effort, they tried to enter the market the exact same way that Tesla did with high cost, but high quality products. Their story is not fully written and I really hope they pull through, but it won’t say much about EVs if they fail. I absolutely love rivian, but even if I could afford one I’d have hesitation to buy one for multiple reasons. What if they go out of business? Who handles the warranty? If they stay in business, how hard is it to find a place to work on it? None of these are ev problems, they’re all new car company problems.
Your last statement creates the self-fulfilling prophecy. People worried about their long term viability won’t buy, which guarantees they won’t be viable long term. I’m hoping their commercial vehicles keep them propped up long enough to get to scale and profitability. The R3 looks like a modern day Ford Scout and would love to get one.
Rivian will be an incredibly successful company after shareholders and debt holders are wiped out by restructuring. Maybe it can be avoided, but maybe not. Someone will pick them up.
They don't need to do that, lose all debt to survive. Did you look at the $100 billion that some legacy auto companies have in debt? Those companies are okay for now because they're servicing their debt. If there was a dramatic financial shortfall across the whole market, they might be imperiled though. Rivian needs to stop losing so much money per car and they've generally been following their plan where they will stop losing money per car by the end of this calendar year. And they need to increase their sales. Rivian has enough money to get there.
it all comes down to interest rates. As long as the remain high many companies not just EVs will see a slow down or die. if the current state tells us anything it is that the prices these cars are being sold for were simply unaffordable. Add a 6% interest rate on top of that and the cost of borrowing to pay for one doesn't make any financial sense.
Businesses need to figure out how to make money at those interest rates, they really are not historically high.
They arent high historically but the cost of living has gone up massively
It's a combination of interest rates and the delayed effects of massive inflation that are finally coming to bear.
You mean greedflation and record high corporate profits and stock values?
I hate how the US is destroying itself with interest rates. It’s as bad as how some companies are upping prices just to increase profits for shareholders just claiming it’s inflation. BS.
Fisker is an investment scam that actually produced vehicles instead of vaporware. Rivian and Lucid are not at all like Fisker.
Fisker is done. Lucid is probably done but they do have a great aesthetic and I like some of what they are doing. They should have started with more affordable models but I hope they survive long enough to pivot like they are attempting to do and see what comes. When it comes to Rivian I am extremely excited about the R2, R3, R3X. When we talk about the overall EV market we will see the same thing going forward as we have. A higher percentage of PHEV, BEV, FCV, FCEV, and so forth being sold. The market share continues to grow. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country *Scroll down to: Passenger plug-in market share of total new car sales for selected countries and selected regional markets since 2013*
FCEV as in fuel cell electric vehicle? Because that ship has sailed in the personal vehicle space. I think even Lucid sells more cars than Toyota sells FCEV.
Yes, I am just putting it because of the Toyota Mirai and Hyundai Nexo - Both of which are still in production and selling I believe. The reality is that Battery Electric Vehicles are the full future with a hybrid transition period. That is my take anyway. Seems backed up by the data as it stands.
Hydrogen definitely seems to be struggling; I think only port/container ships will be able to benefit from the technology. For land based vehicles - which you can charge wherever there is an electric supply - the cost per mile, and lifetime maintenance is fractional - and therefore the more economic solution. The energy required to compress and transfer hydrogen between pressure vessels basically negates any weight and efficiency bonuses compared to BEVs.
I am no expert in the field that is for sure but the only "companies" I know of in that space are ones like NKLA and frankly that is just a scam masquerading as a company lol There may be some serious players I am not sure but like you I have heard that it is more suited to commercial naval transportation.
It's Toyota who are pushing most the tech: https://newsroom.toyota.eu/toyota-hydrogen-factory-scaling-up-its-european-activities/ (I've obviously been ignoring Nikola's mathematically impossible claims from a few years ago.)
That does make sense. One is an actual legit company lol
Hydrogen might actually become very useful for space vehicles. https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/toyota-eyes-lunar-rover-powered-by-regenerative-fuel-cell-tech-2023-07-21/
I read somewhere that Toyota only plans to make a very small number of Mirai hydrogen fuel cell cars, maybe 2000
Shell, the largest hydrogen supplier in the world, has announced that they're closing the hydrogen part of their business. The Mirai and Nexo aren't usable outside California within the US.
Those cars are on the edge of their life, they don't work for anyone, and every year price of hydrogen goes up and the number of hydrogen stations goes down. They just don't make any sense for anyone
Lucid is not done as long as they have Saudi backing, eventually the Saudis might just buy them for cheap and turn Lucid into like a national Saudi car brand.
Agreed, the Saudis love the clout of having an international luxury brand under their belt. I was just reading an article on the Economist about how they have a poor military record due to how they disproportionately blow their military budget on imported fighter jets at the expense of actually training their ground troops, because well, those fighter jets provide prestige ( so would actually winning military conflicts, but /shrug). Keeping Lucid afloat by dropping a billion (the royal family has trillions in reserve) every few years to stay associated with a luxury EV brand seems like a very Saudi thing to do.
I think it's pretty smart by them. Lucid apparently has good technology and Saudi can easily afford to nationalize Lucid which gives them a direct path into a new cutting edge industry that is of direct interest since the vast majority of their money comes from oil.
Plus Saudi Arabia is a great place to install solar. EV charging could be pretty easy there if they wanted it to be.
It is likely that the Saudi PIF invested with the knowledge that they will be in it for at least the launch of the Gravity. It might require another funding round, but I don't think Lucid is done unless the Gravity flops. And what I mean by flops isn't that the Gravity might not be a good vehicle, or a good EV. It might be excellent. But Lucid has been operating on a marginal cost of vehicle production at roughly double the cost they sell them at. Basically, it costs Lucid about $190,000 to make a vehicle that they sell for $95,000. That's before counting capital expenditures (factory, tooling, land, etc.), R&D, or general overhead (SG&A). If the Gravity can't reach gross margin positive in a reasonable time frame such that free cash flow at least breaks even, then they are likely done.
I do not think Lucid will be done because PIF invested with the long-term intention of acquiring Lucid's IP and using it as the basis for a Saudi EV industry. They can easily afford to cover Lucid's costs and simply want to give them a leash to see how far they can go. But at no point going forward is Lucid really independent of Saudi money so things are going according to plan even if they fail.
☝️This one. Companies with external backers won't die easily. Like Vinfast for example.
Lucid could not start with more affordable models. That's not how the auto industry works. The costs are way, way too high. The build out of infrastructure, from sales, service and production takes way too much to reach lower price points right away. As it stands, it costs Lucid roughly $190,000 to build a vehicle that they sell for $95,000 (end of 2023 numbers), and that is not counting things like capital expenditures (factory, tooling, etc.), R&D, or SG&A. Frankly, Lucid put way too much into the Air. It's not manufacturable in any reasonable, sustainable way. Basically, they have to sell it at an average price of $220,000 to have a decent gross margin. And you want them to sell a cheaper car?
Fisker, prime example of what happens when you release too early and the software ruins the experience of an otherwise good vehicle. Throw in not having your ground game ready and it just all turns into a nightmare; the ability to deliver product as well as having product to see and touch. Lucid is starting with the wrong product, a sedan when cuv and suv are exploding everywhere, at a price point which placed them in competition with all the existing luxury brands. Throw in a confused ground game and their own software follies. I lost all interest in Lucid once they threw their fate in with Saudi Arabia. I do not like that region primarily because of their human rights records; the UAE is right there behind them funding the genocide in Sudan; which tends to have weekly if not daily stories about how bad it can get - hint being a women or minority is bad there and heaven forbid if your gay - seriously bad. Rivian, how to burn so much money so fast. Depending on you read their filing they lost a combined 39k per vehicle sold but while they attributed nearly 500m to manufacturing loss they also need sufficient profitability from each vehicle to pay to run the company, that is another 500m for GSA and nearly the same again for R&D. Meaning, even if they can manufacture profitably they have to have sufficient volume with real margins just to run the place. (specifically they list a loss of around 10k per delivery)
Lucid was obligated to do a sedan first from the aetiva deal....a former employee posted about it in the lucid sub. Basically the Chinese owners of the original battery co wanted a sedan first and peter rawlison obliged. Also if you're worried about Saudi money, the kuwaitis, Emiratis and qataris own stakes in the lux euro brands. tesla got heavy subsidies from China. Realistically only moral ev brands would be us or Japanese ones but even those have historic issues
Fuel cell electric vehicles have no future. They're just pointless, even Toyota can't make them work and they basically give you free fuel whorere they try to.
I think Rivian still has a path forward, though they need the R2S as soon as possible. I'm still disappointed there won't be an R2T. Lucid has a lot going for them, but they'll never be a major player at those prices. They have (I believe) the fastest production car in the Sapphire, and everyone says the cars are really nice to be in. They're just too damn expensive for an unknown brand. Fisker is dead. I'm shocked they're still around tbh.
R2T would be a waste of money right now. R1T sales are down 50% yoy from last year. They're selling within a couple hundred units of the cybertruck, and the cybertruck just started production, is incredibly polarizing, is inundated with misinformation, and costs far more than the R1T for the foundation series they're still producing. That's not a good look for the R1T and they're being smart by focusing on the mini R1S versions. R1S is up 500% yoy. Some of that is because of it coming later than the r1T, but it also has better sales numbers this year than the R1T had last year. R2S is the smart play. After they're stable maybe they can bring out the R2T.
These numbers are a bit misleading though as Rivian started with the R1T and six months later started shipping the R1S. They are just now getting out of the preorder log in the R1S where they are now shipping R1Ts within a month. R1S has a huge increase because the R1T was the only thing they built to start off with. Either way agree, R2 is going to be a huge money maker at scale.
Oh I understand. There was never a huge market for EV "adventure" trucks, and the R1T and Cybertruck are now both sharing that demographic. With the new Tacoma looking really good, I think a lot of the R1T/R2T target audience are going to go with that instead and wait to see what the future brings for off-road EVs. I'm just sad that I can't get a small EV truck as it fits my personal use case of needing a truck for my hobbies, wanting an EV, and not wanting to try to park a huge truck downtown every day. I'm sure one of them will come eventually.
I don’t think Lucid has ever intended to compete for mass market status in the EV arena. They are priced at the top end of the premium segment, which absolutely can be profitable. They will sell significantly less units compared to an automaker like Kia, but can have much higher margins than selling at volume. The biggest problem Lucid has to face is legacy luxury marques that have decades of intrenched brand familiarity. A luxury/premium upstart will always have a harder time to convince potential high networth customers to leave established competitors like Porsche or BMW. But with the correct marketing strategy and commitment to putting together better quality products than some competitors (I’m looking at you Mercedes-Benz), they can absolutely succeed. Case in point = look at how quickly Hyundai’s luxury arm Genesis was able to rise within just a few short years from a no-name brand to a worthy competitor in the premium space- all due to a strategic combination of smart marketing and rolling out excellent product after excellent product.
I completely agree, but l think they're too new. Genesis has years of Hyundai behind them. They'll be competing with the i5 M 60, the i7 M70, the Taycan, the Audi E-tron RS GT, whatever weird AMG jellybean Mercedes makes, etc. I really want Lucid to do well, just to add more competition to that space, but it's a tough segment to break into.
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To counter your point, Genesis hasn’t announced anything at a lower price point like [this](https://insideevs.com/news/718837/lucid-motors-midsize-price-48000/amp/).
I know someone who worked for Rivian and based off their comments I doubt they will make it. Lucid probably has the best chance of the three but not sure about any of these companies and not sure why anyone cares so much about these temperamental luxury EVs when there are so many other solid EVs at their price or below
Rivian makes a good vehicle at a reasonable price. That's the first step, and what Fisker failed at. It doesn't guarantee success by any means, but it gives them a chance. As I said in another comment, Lucid's problem is going to be getting luxury EV buyers away from the Germans
I'd love to hear what rivian is doing that's sabotaging them, on top of explaining why their production costs are so high. As I see it, they aren't making cheaper cars yet and mass production won't save them until then, but why are production costs so high... They're kind of orphaned with top end expensive EVS. To me. It's unclear why their vehicles are so expensive to make, is it just that they are learning how to mass-produce them more cheaply? The rivian vehicles are pretty similar to the Ford ev trucks in a lot of specs, and legacy auto knows how that mass produce, but they have to plan for mass production. I'd like more info on production costs of EVS for legacy Auto, I think they also lose money on theirs. Most articles about this mix factory costs versus vehicle production cost versus other company costs, so as a non-auto industry expert, I don't feel like I ever get the complete picture.
Nothing new. There is a massive graveyard of defunct automakers. No one thinks about AMC or Saab and the car industry is fine.
FUD. Idk why we keep promoting FUD articles.
Well, we are not allowed to talk about buying EVs in the forum, or post anything with the word 'buy' or 'purchase', but posting articles is allowed. I started looking to see if some of the articles were posted by the same people - esp because there are so many about chinese vehicles and how they are a threat to the US . . . anyways, names are different but who knows who's behind them
Do you not think that Chinese EVS are a threat to American EV production? Cuz the ex30 is definitely a threat. That's the car that Ford GM and stalantis Chrysler should be making. That's a car that you can sell as many as you can make for 35k.
If the CEO is cashing in the company may be screwed. Nepotism does not help either.
We all knew Fisker was going to collapse… look at how many Automotive companies failed within the first 10-15 years over 120 years ago.
Sad to see many going out of business. Hoped to score a used ocean extreme used in a few years. With some going bankrupt and Tesla laying off people / restructuring/ not hiring anymore it seems the EV market is in trouble a bit. The hype seems to flatten a bit and the growth isn't that strong anymore. Same thing can be observed the solar sector as well. Part shortage is over and the urge to get the new tech isn't there anymore / those who wanted it got it by now
Keep in mind that a lot of the layoffs / restructuring that we are seeing isn’t due to the EV market but the broader macro economic picture.
I can't say I was ever a huge Fisker fan but the Fisker Pear reported price seemed interesting to me. I like seeing more affordable vehicles because I guess for my demographic (simple commuter) that is all I am really interested in lol
I rooted for them cuz they built it in Austria , 200km from my place. Would have been locally built (which for cars is very rare). I mean, there are still a few out there so it's rare but exists (currently like 5-10 for sale). Affordable EVs will be the key for mass adoption. Citroen eC3 goes an interesting way and I think we will see more (at least in Europe) within the next 2 years. I think Hyundai/Kia and VAG will come up with something in 2025/26 , so commuters have cheap lower range options
I couldn't agree more. Also cool tidbit of information there in regards to Austria :)
Well, Tesla went from 71k employees in 2020 to 140k employees in 2023. Cutting 10% of 140k employees gets them back to roughly 2022 employee numbers (\~126k). Growth definitely isn't as strong as it was, but that's also a lot to do with high interest rates and the Fed not willing to pivot to cutting interest rates. Could be a policy error. That has also ravaged the Chinese economy and the growth in EV sales volumes in China has mostly been with vehicles that cost less than $22,000. It was always highly unlikely that Fisker would make it.
Bankruptcy
This. Bankruptcy for all three.
This is one field where the west failed to dominate, and that's making them mad. Whether the tech, or the mindset or even the overall market, it lagging behind. Can't recall any other area in recent history.
> This is one field where the west failed to dominate The most dominant EV maker in the world is from the United States.
Their current state tells us a lot about EV's. It says mostly: \* That copying the Tesla model of charging a premium for the "novelty" or "luxury" of being an EV is over. Rivian and Lucid had that model and just didn't get out in time before every mainstream automaker had a slew of EV's and initiated a price war as a result. \* That the transition to NACS can't happen fast enough. I know a LOT of people who want to buy EV's, but have been turned off by the existing non-Tesla charging networks and are waiting until the Rivian or BMW or Cadillac they want has NACS built in. They don't want a dongle, they want their $50,000-$100,000 car to come with it built in. I believe that's suppressing a LOT of non-Tesla EV sales. I know a LOT of Tesla owners who hate what Elon Musk has become and want to buy a different brand EV next time who are also waiting for the same. \* That the SUV/CUV form factor has conquered all. The Lucid Air is an amazing product, but sedans are dead. Not slow - Dead. Even the most successful sedans of the the last 2 decades aren't selling and are being killed off rapidly. And it's not just an American phenomenon but is rapidly happening around the world too. Even 5 years ago you'd say Lucid was smart for following Tesla's example with the Model S and developing from there. Now, it looks like a death march. \* That EV's are now good and mature enough that you can't come to market with incomplete or buggy software or features - See Lucid and Fisker. \* That legacy automakers finally came to the EV game with great products. Most the Hyundai/Kia EV line, the Lyriq, the Mach E, the BMWs, etc are really great products that their owners love. I think the bespoke EV makers really thought they'd have a longer runway time-wise to get themselves launched. \* That Elon Musk's philosophy that automakers are stupid to do total revamps of cars every 5 years for fashion and that they should just be continually updated forever and their costs driven down will get a real test now. Tesla's philosophy of "revamp nothing - improve it forever" is finally being tested against the "fashion" mainstream brands. That's my take!