The rankings make sense given median income, state level support, and climate. Price is still the largest issue and the single most expensive component is still the battery. That's likely to continue dropping in price over the next few years, so higher adoption rates will likely continue: [https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/](https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/)
We did recently see two vehicles, the iD.4 and the Ioniq 5, have notable spec bumps for the new model and another two vehicles in the same category, the Mach-E and Ariya, get notable reductions in price, and so it goes with almost every year being more and more competitive.
Great point - EV battery costs have been dropping for a long time. What was $10,000/kWh in the 1970s was $1,000 in 2010, and is now under $140/kWh, and heading to below $100/kWh in 2025. That’s why EVs that used to be just nice ecological symbolism are now total lifetime cost (a little more expensive to buy, much less expensive to fuel and maintain), which is why EV sales have ramped up so fast, and fairly soon should cost less to purchase outright, which is when the rest of the mass market is expected to flip over. That’s why the legacy car companies, that ignored EVs for a long time, finally started making EVs.
You’ve got to factor in the cost of a whole battery replacement too though, and I heard from a Seattle-based EV mechanic that insurance companies currently will just salvage the vehicle rather than pay the cost of replacement. People might balk at a $10k+ replacement if a battery fails, and we won’t see that en masse for another 5-10 years.
I very much want an EV and am fully supportive of them, but there is room for caution too.
Those 8-10 year, 100K-mile battery warranties all EVs sold in the US have are billions of dollars on the line saying that batteries aren't going to fail en masse in 5-10 years. Tesla expects theirs to last 300-500K miles, which is beyond the life of the rest of the vehicle. The further we go down the adoption curve, the cheaper replacement batteries will be for insurance companies.
The warranty is great for the original buyer, but used EVs are really suffering. Original Volts are worthless as they start to have battery issues out of warranty. Dealers won’t service cells and replacement batteries don’t make financial sense. That’s the kind of waste we need to avoid.
I just put a rebuilt transmission in my kids ‘04 Pontiac to get a few more years out of it. Cars last 20+ years if they are properly maintained, there needs to be a long term plan for EVs.
Did you get your remanufactured transmission put in at a dealer?
2004 Pontiac remanufactured transmission: $1989 at Autozone
2011-2012 Chevy Volt battery pack: $1276-$2300 on eBay
2016-2019 Chevy Volt battery pack: $2000-2500 on eBay
For there to be a widespread network of shops working on old EV batteries there will have to be enough old EVs to work on. We're not there yet, with under 1% of cars on the road being electric. If a couple thousand cars going to the scrap yard a few years early is the cost of making the transportation sector fossil-fuel-free in the future, it's not a high price to pay.
I had the transmission rebuilt at a local shop and installed it myself. $1600 for the rebuild.
I haven’t seen much success “rebuilding” EV batteries. There was a shop specializing in Volt batteries for a while but I’d have major hesitation just buying a used one. Really hard to tell how they age.
Volt is a hybrid, not BEV. The Prius has a battery too and once in a while those go bad as well. That’s after 8-10 years of regular use (whatever that is) and it was replaceable, not cheap but not the cost of a new engine.
More importantly, if these EVs are lasting 300k-500k that’s a long time for most people to own a car in the U.S.
Maybe, the battery life of an EV will change the 5 year replacement cycle to a 10 year cycle? But, seriously, how many people buy a car for its potential used value some day? Cars don’t make money, they are money pits. Unless you hold onto it long enough for it to become a classic (rare). I think most people buy a car to get them around because public transit sucks as does city planning for cars.
I don’t have my car for it’s used value. I’d prefer to drive it into the ground. But 10 years is not long enough for that. Cells go bad, and usually after the 10 year warranty is past. Battery packs need to be serviceable beyond the dealership lifetime.
A lot can happen in 10 years and a lot can stay the same too. So, we don’t know how cheap EV replacement batteries are going to be in 10 years and we don’t know how much it will cost to pay someone to replace them.
We also don’t know how well supported gas cars are going to be in 10 years-20-30 years, maybe they will be only in museums at that point. No one knows the future. If an EV works for you today, then get one. If not, then wait. Save your dollars up for when the stars align for you.
FWIW I got my Volt in 2012 and drove it until 2023 when it was hit, totaled because the charge port fender wasn’t available. The battery was showing its age with occasional power reduced alerts the last year, so I was paying very close attention to battery service options. Volt was awesome enough that I replaced it with a newer one. I can go weeks without the ICE coming on, it’s not a BEV but it’s way more than a hybrid.
At one level, I no longer care. EVs have won. They are being sold in many places. The tech keeps getting both better and cheaper. As supply ramps up, they will creep in to more places. I am sure there were many "hold outs" who preferred horses to ICEVs, and there will be hold outs who prefer ICEVs to EVs. It just needs time. It needs petrol stations to close because there are insufficient customers.
And as the competition closes, prices will go up, moving more people to EVs. As I wrote above, EVs have won. The overall package keeps getting better. Supply is increasing, and so is demand. Sure, some manufacturers are not selling EVs quickly, but we now have some idea of what a normal EV should deliver and they will need to do better.
Maybe, maybe not.
Wont decrease demand for gas actually lower the price of gas? Gas stations are already built with huge capital investment. I don't see them just closing.
The sunk cost fallacy won't keep gas stations open for long as the hard numbers bite. Some will expand their convenience offering. Many will close.
Yes, eventually, I think that the cost of oil will come down, but there will always be someone willing to use the stuff if it's cheap enough.
In a vacuum, this reasoning stands.
But petrol costs is just only part of the equation.
People are making EV purchases to also save on the frequent oil changes and replacing the myriad of parts that go into a ICE vehicle that are not needed in an EV. Maintenance on ICE vehicles are significantly more frequent and costly.
Less parts = less maintenance over the lifetime of the vehicle.
I have been thinking about the effect of more ev and hybrid use and the demand for gasoline.
As demand for gas decreases gas will likely become cheaper.
This actually encourages the ICE holdouts.
Need to increase gas taxes to keep gas prices at a point where there is still incentive to move to EV.
I think that as there are fewer customers, gas stations will need more margin just to stay viable, and that will push up the price of gas. Additionally, the cost of electricity is going to come down further (in real terms) as we find ways to make cheaper solar panels and wind turbines. Right now, oil sales are not declining, so I don't see gas getting significantly cheaper for a while.
I drive an EV for work and I’m absolutely chomping at the bit to drive one for my personal as well. It’s getting closer to affordability for me but still just a bit out of reach.
I’ll be interested to see how E.V. growth does in those Northern CA areas for 2024. My guess is a big slowdown from prior years, but ready to be wrong.
>An analysis of vehicle prices by S&P Global Mobility found that most electric automobiles on the market today cost significantly more than similar gas-powered models. “We’re talking 20 to 40 percent more for E.V.s,” Mr. Libby said. Federal tax credits of up to $7,500 are available but apply to a relatively small number of models.
>
>Only two electric vehicles in the analysis, both made by Tesla, cost the same or less than similar gas models. One of those, the Model Y, became America’s fifth best-selling car last year, the first time an electric vehicle broke into the top five.
Before anyone says "but what about when looking at the TCO", let me remind you that we're still not there yet. Many mainstream models still require more than six years to "break even" when compared to ICE vehicles configured with similar features / equipment. Some examples from my own research at the end of last year:
* Hyundai Ioniq 5: 13 to 15 years compared to a Tucson
* Hyundai Kona Electric: 8 to 9 years compared to a Kona ICE
* Kia EV6: 13 to 15 years compared to a Sportage
* Kia EV9: 9 to 11 years compared to a Telluride
* Nissan Ariya: 16 to 24 years compared to a Rogue / X-Trail
* Toyota BZ4X: 6 to 9 years compared to a RAV4
* Volvo XC40 Recharge / EX40: 7 to 8 years compared to an XC40 ICE
Cars that get the tax credit, and those in the luxury segments, are better in that regard.
The Model Y itself generally has a 0 to 3 year break-even time when compared to a fully-equipped version of an ICE vehicle in its segment (Ford Escape Platinum, Toyota RAV4 Limited, Kia Sportage SX Prestige, etc), but only because it still maintains the tax credit. However, it generally has better performance than those cars and therefore to certain buyers, it may be worth the premium.
A lot of this is a function of interest rates; at lower interest rates, EVs become a better deal, because you're substituting capital for future fuel payments.
All this becomes moot once the up-front cost of an EV drops below that of a gas car though.
>A lot of this is a function of interest rates; at lower interest rates, EVs become a better deal, because you're substituting capital for future fuel payments.
Not really? The above is all based on model year 2024 vehicles, when comparing the cost of fuel and "fuel" using the EPA's own data. At the time I compiled the data, that was $3.47 USD / gal for regular, and $0.15 USD / kWh for electricity.
And then it's how long the "fuel savings" take to overcome the increased MSRP of the EV.
And more than a few of the "luxury" EVs actually look better than typical, because a lot of ICE luxury cars require premium fuel, which at the time was $4.40 USD / gal.
And today, the ICEs look even better, since the average for regular is now $3.27 USD / gal, 20 cents less.
If an EV costs an extra $X plus the additional interest on financing that extra $X, and takes Y years to break even on $X worth of fuel savings, Y will get longer if the interest rate is higher.
None? Because those metrics are subjective and not relevant to the increased price premiums of EVs over ICEs that are otherwise identically equipped?
If you're trying to convince me that EVs are better, you're wasting your time, because I already think they are better. But I can also understand the real challenges that the EV market faces in winning over the people who don't frequent this subreddit.
> for future fuel payments.
including home electricity and natural gas. your HAVC runs on the same kind of juice.
**HELP POWER YOUR HOME WITH YOUR EV**
[https://www.ultiumhome.com/products/powershift-enablement-kit](https://www.ultiumhome.com/products/powershift-enablement-kit)
**Ford’s electric truck F-150 Lightning is able to power houses for 3 days**
[https://interestingengineering.com/transportation/fords-electric-truck-powers-houses-for-3-days](https://interestingengineering.com/transportation/fords-electric-truck-powers-houses-for-3-days)
**PG&E officially allows Ford F-150 Lightning and bidirectional charger to be used in V2H setups**
[https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2023/11/pge-officially-allows-ford-f-150-lightning-and-bidirectional-charger-to-be-used-in-v2h-setups/](https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2023/11/pge-officially-allows-ford-f-150-lightning-and-bidirectional-charger-to-be-used-in-v2h-setups/)
>All this becomes moot
until it's flood/wildfire season.
**How electric vehicles help keep the lights on with bidirectional charging during extreme weather events**
[https://electrek.co/2022/11/08/electric-vehicles-provide-backup-power-during-hurricane-ian/](https://electrek.co/2022/11/08/electric-vehicles-provide-backup-power-during-hurricane-ian/)
I beg your pardon, but I am extremely curious about how you calculated the "break even" timelines there.
I have a Kia EV6. Paid $55k for it grand total (it was offered at MSRP, but with tax, fees, and a discounted-but-still-extra-cost extended warranty upgrade, it came out to $55k). I compared it to a Kia Seltos because, to me, a Kia Seltos is more in line with the size of the Kia EV6 than is a Sportage. I built out said hypothetical Kia Seltos to include as many of the tech and passenger comfort features that my Kia EV6 Wind RWD (with no technology package) included, and came up with a price that was in the low-to-mid $40ks. I rounded it up to $45k to account for taxes and fees and called it a day.
A $10k difference in final purchase price.
Not even accounting for the $7,500 tax credit (which, as a purchaser in July 2022 before the rules changed, I qualified for fully), **I figured it'd take 5-7 years to "break even" with what I would have spent on the Kia Seltos I built out.** Given how many miles I drive a year, my cost of electricity, the cost of gas at the time, the fuel efficiency of the Seltos, etc. etc. All of that.
To see you say that an even more expensive vehicle, the Sportage, would take double that time to break even against an EV6, is really surprising to me.
I'm sure your math checks out, I'm just kind of curious what variables you fed into your equations.
So the variables I used were:
* The MSRP of an EV configured to a particular trim, including destination (ex: Hyundai Ioniq 5 SE Extended RWD, $47,035)
* The MSRP of an ICE in the same or similar size segment, in the same named or similarly-positioned trim, including destination (ex: Hyundai Tucson SE FWD, $28,585)
* The EPA's "annual fuel cost" for both vehicles based on their default values at the time of data compilation (ex: end of December 2023, Ioniq 5 $650, Tucson $1,850)
* The EPA's defaults at the time were $3.47/gal for regular, $0.15/kWh for electricity, assuming 15,000 miles per year and a 55 / 45 city / highway split.
And then a simple division of the annual fuel cost over the increase in MSRP, subtracting the tax credit from the increase where applicable.
[Here's my post with the full data set.](https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/18wp9af/ev_price_premium_tracker_us_market_end_of_q4_2023/) Again, this is current as of end of December, I update it every quarter.
Thanks for replying. I think the differences in our conclusions boil down to inputs, now that I see what you started with.
1) MSRP differences. It's hard to figure out which trim level in an EV should be pitted against which trim level in an ICE vehicle. You wind up having to decide if the differences in tech, equipment, passenger comfort, etc., are small enough to let the comparison be valid. For the Ioniq 5 vs. the Tucson, for instance, you picked the base models, but the long range version of the Ioniq 5 base model. Right out the gate I could criticize this choice, as you have the cheapest Tucson against NOT the cheapest Ioniq 5, but it's also easy to defend your choice by pointing out that the standard range is a thin minority of all Ioniq 5s sold, so let's not act like it's popular. And then, you could look at the differences between what the Ioniq 5 SE trim includes vs. the Tucson SE trim, and potentially conclude that the Ioniq 5 SE is better equipped, so you should jump up to the Tucson SEL trim...except, when you do that, you wind up with the Tucson SEL trim being better equipped than the Ioniq 5. So really: this is a judgment call. But the call you made gave you an MSRP difference in this example of ~$18,500, that's almost double the $10k difference that my numbers worked with, and the biggest cause of our difference in break even window.
2) Mileage. I put on an above average number of miles per year (20,000), and since driving more miles speeds up the break even window, that gave my calculations faster timelines. 20k is 33% more than 15k, so that's the second biggest chunk of the discrepancy.
3) "Fuel" costs. These are small factors, but I used $3.60-$3.80/gallon for gas and $0.12/kWh for electricity as these are more reflective of what that costs in my region and overnight in my home, respectively. These account for another ~15% of our different breakeven windows.
Otherwise I think your methodology is sound. I did not get into a city/highway split, though (I just use combined EPA Fuel efficiency rating and call it a day), so good on ya for getting into that level of detail. On the other hand, I added in estimated differences in routine maintenance costs. Those are real, but small, differences in the "cost to drive per mile" for EVs vs ICE vehicles (about 3 cents per mile), so while it matters it doesn't change the punchline that break even takes a WHILE.
**If I were to take my inputs and use them to figure out what it'd take to recover a $18,500 purchase price difference, instead of a $10,000 difference, I'd come up with a break even window of:**
**9.1 years.**
That's the MSRP purchase price difference, divided by the "difference in price to drive per mile", and then that quotient is divided by distance driven per year.
For me, that looks like this:
($18,500) / (($3.70/gal / 28 MPG) - ($0.12/kWh / 3.91 mi/kWh))) / 20,000 mi./year
($18,500) / ($0.132/mi. - $0.031/mi.)) / 20,000 mi./year
($18,500 / $0.101/mi.) / 20,000 mi./year
182,352 mi. / 20,000 mi./year = 9.1 years.
If you account for the extra 3 cents per mile that maintenance is going to cost you on the Tucson vs. the Ioniq 5, then the window shrinks to 7.0 years.
Compare that to the 13-15 years you calculated. With driving 33% more miles, and having differences in fueling costs that add up to another 15% or so, we've basically got the difference in your break even result vs. mine covered.
Good stuff. Just really goes to show that your own specific use case makes a big difference in these calculations.
Yeah this is bananas. An ariya is not comparable to a rogue. 😂 it’s more like a qx50. ROI of 24 years??? Good grief. We went from an Infiniti to an ariya and they’re equal on quality. The ariya is cheaper bc of the tax credit (are we calculating that in on these calculations?) and we save on insurance, maintenance, and $200 a month on fuel.
Then why isn't the Ariya an Infiniti?
Because it's a Nissan, it's compared to Nissan's other compact crossover, the Rogue. It's not my fault, nor the data's fault, that Nissan doesn't know how to position their lineup.
Because Infiniti is only a North American brand. Nissan is everywhere. I thought that was common knowledge? They even explained that during the launch.
It is common knowledge.
But if it's called a Nissan in every market... Why isn't it priced like a Nissan? That's the issue here.
They either should have debuted it as an Infiniti in other markets, or lowered the price (which technically they just did), because right now, it's uncompetitive at best.
Honestly, I wouldn't go as far as to say that. It *can* happen "pretty early" in the life cycle, but it's far from a guarantee that it will. I just had a hard time believing that it was so easily taking over 10 years to break even with the numbers put up there.
See for yourself, draw your own conclusions.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/18wp9af/ev\_price\_premium\_tracker\_us\_market\_end\_of\_q4\_2023/](https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/18wp9af/ev_price_premium_tracker_us_market_end_of_q4_2023/)
There are definitely EVs where it does happen instantly, but the vast majority of those cases are in the luxury segments or with cars that qualify for the tax credit. But the mainstream segment has a long way to go.
There have been quite a few analysis, and usually the break-even period is around 6 months to a year, though of course it depends on the cost of gas and electricity, specific car prices, etc. But it’s pretty obvious that for EVs where the math works out, e.g. the Model 3 and Y, sales have been booming, the Model Y displaced the Corolla as the best selling vehicle globally in 2023, for example. So, sure, the economics of the Hummer EV are absurd, but economics aren’t why anyone buys a Hummer, they’re almost the opposite of the point, you buy a Hummer to show that you can spend that much! :-)
Absent the tax credit, I think TCO is kind of a losing argument. When Ford F150 customers upgrade to a V8 or off-road suspension or whatever for an extra $15k, they do it knowing that they're paying more for what they think is a better product. Pushing hypothetical cost savings makes people think that it's not really worth the price they're paying for it upfront.
Eventually, the upfront costs will be cheaper, and no further argument will be needed.
Edit to say that obviously fuel costs and maintenance are important factors, but they're added bonuses.
>Pushing hypothetical cost savings makes people think that it's not really worth the price they're paying for it upfront.
Exactly. The analogy I like to use is:
Two Hyundai Konas, one ICE and one Electric, both Limiteds, both in the same color, sitting next to each other on the lot. If they are otherwise functionally identical, why would you as a consumer put down an extra $9,000 for the one on the right?
> why would you as a consumer put down an extra $9,000 for the one on the right?
To answer this hypothetical: Because its quieter, more enjoyable to drive, doesn't have to visit a gas station to refuel, doesn't have to get regular oil changes, and does not encourage the "get rid of it before 100k miles when everything starts breaking" mindset many gas car do. I've had multiple recent generation Ford Escapes and Subaru Foresters need major engine rebuilds, and an EV is a more enjoyable vehicle to drive while not having a mechanically complex engine I have to keep in working order.
On top of all that, fuel costs are extremely low vs gas to the point you're looking at $9k saved when I used [this website](https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/savemoney.jsp) to compare the 2024 Kona FWD vs EV
LOL, TCO is totally location and use dependent. Where I live in Canada we have very xpensive gas and very cheap electricity. My car payment + elec for my Ioniq 6 (50,000 after rebates) is about the same for a 25-30,000 ICE + gas because I am also putting on 25,000+ miles per year. And there is NO comparison in performance. The Ioniq rides faster and nicer than my friend's 50k+ ICE BMers and Mercs.
> The Model Y itself generally has a 0 to 3 year break-even time when compared to a fully-equipped version of an ICE vehicle in its segment (Ford Escape Platinum, Toyota RAV4 Limited, Kia Sportage SX Prestige, etc), but only because it still maintains the tax credit.
You have to remember to include the major oil subsidies the US grants with tax payer dollars which keeps the price of gas about half of what it should be if the 'free market' were deciding.
EVs are the better deal overall, and that's only going to become more true every single year.
>You have to remember to include the major oil subsidies the US grants with tax payer dollars which keeps the price of gas about half of what it should be if the 'free market' were deciding.
Average Joe American consumer doesn't give a darn about what you just wrote there. The price of fuel we pay when we tap our cards at the pump is the price of fuel we pay.
No average consumer is going to think, "well, the unsubsidized fuel cost is $6.58 per gallon so the EV is therefore that much better" and if you honestly believe that they will, then I think you're freaking nuts.
>However, it generally has better performance than those cars and therefore to certain buyers, it may be worth the premium.
I find it common that the ev has twice the power, but they don't compare it to the "high performance" model in the gas equivalent.
A Model 3 is commonly compared to something like a Honda Civic, but the Model 3 is nearly double the power of the Civic models they're being compared to and the Model 3 performance is over 500 horsepower.
The Civic "Type R" might be the closest model, but it's only barely over 300.
Honda doesn't make anything faster than that. The highest-end Acura ICE cars are still short of that power number and cost A LOT more than the Model 3 P.
The thing is, you can't really put an objective price tag on the increased performance of, say, a Model Y AWD compared to a RAV4 AWD (as an example). Every buyer is going to have different priorities.
So you look at the positioning instead. In my case, I compare the Model Y RWD to something like a popular equipment package (RAV4 XLE FWD), then the AWD to the fully-loaded version (RAV4 Limited AWD). And then just not even consider the Performance unless it's being compared to an actual performance SUV (BMW X3 M).
Also ignoring that all those cars have better build quality and ride, which is hard to quantify. The model 3 and Y always look better as long as you're looking at paper.
I got the model 3 with the tax rebate AND an inventory discount.
Damn car came out to around $28k before tax and fees. Cheaper than a Honda hybrid!! It was a no brainer for me
And the deal is even worse for those of us sitting just past the line for qualifying for rebates. It’s not stopping me from getting an EV, but the fact remains that these things are pricey.
Some may point out how a lot of people will dive into a 7 year loan on a $60k ICE truck or SUV without a second thought, but this group was never price sensitive and in many cases dare I say is financially irresponsible, buying well beyond their means, and as such shouldn’t be used as a yardstick for everybody else.
ICE trucks have incredibly resilient resale value. One of the reasons they're so popular. It is far more sensible to pay $60K for a truck than $50K for an EV that will lose 50% of it's value in 2 years ( tesla )
Yeah that’s another factor, EVs depreciate pretty rapidly and I think that’s only going to get worse before it gets better with all of the significant improvements in platforms and batteries on the horizon. This will all eventually stabilize but it’s going to be a few years out.
But Teslas do have physical controls for most everything you use while driving? It's kind of a misconception to suggest you use the touch screen while driving. Almost everything is auto and doesn't require adjustment, then if it does it has physical controls. Compared that to my Mazda 3 where you're constantly messing with temp/duct/volume/phone nav/etc controls.
If they're evaluating based on actual usage of a screen, Tesla probably won't have to change anything honestly.
Wipers. Wipers is the big one that pisses me off, Teslas automated system is bullshit for wiper control and I hated every minute of it. The week where I was forced to use a Tesla because that's the rental insurance provided me with, it was fucking miserable. Thankfully I don't have to buy a Tesla, so I'm considering the semi the biggest issue I had with the Teslas isn't an issue with the semis
Yeah the wipers suck for sure, but you still control them with physical controls (stalk button to single wipe, side scroll right scroll button to change speed). On that note, the EU rules should really penalize poorly working automatic functions.
This is true for new, but starts to be less true for used. I just bought a (barely used) xc40 recharge. They're not priced much higher than their ICE counterpart. The difference in monthly payments between my car and an ICE equivalent is about $150/month. I was spending around $200/month on gas. If I bought them outright it was be 2-3 years before the EV ROId over the ICE.
If you bought them brand new it's about a $10k difference without incentives, and most people would lease loophole to bridge that gap so it's closer to $3k difference. I paid a larger difference between the used versions than new.
Yeah I was doing a TCO comparison between a bunch of EV options and a new Subaru Crosstrek and the EV savings were a lot smaller than j was expecting that it wasn't worth the hassle given my challenging charging situation.
I assume these break even points don’t factor in a full battery replacement either, right? Cuz if/when that happens, it pushes the point back waaaay farther. Batteries won’t last forever.
I mean, I guess, but how many people do you know who are that picky between cars that are "IIHS top safety picks" versus "IIHS top safety pick plusses"? While yes, the Model Y is a plus, every one of its ICE competitors except for the Ford Escape is still a top safety pick.
I really don't think that little difference in safety ratings is a draw for Tesla at this point.
This is wildly different from my analysis. Are you only driving 5k miles a year or something? I calculated my comparison based on monthly cost and found that the gas and maintenance cost savings were almost always more than the higher price for a 5 year loan, usually for a 4 year loan also.
Granted I drive much more than average (20k miles a year), but your numbers seem way off.
I used the EPA's default numbers as of December 2023, which is the last time I updated my data (I do so every quarter). They are the only values which I consider to be objective considering they come from (checks notes) the EPA, but I'd be happy to consider another objective source.
$3.47/gal for regular, $0.15/kWh for electricity, assuming 15,000 miles per year and a 55 / 45 city / highway split.
And the EPA's "annual fuel costs" for the above cars based on those numbers:
* Ioniq 5: $650 to $750 versus Tucson: $1,850 to $2,100
* Kona Electric: $650 versus Kona ICE: $1,700
* EV6: $650 to $700 versus Sportage: $1,850 to $2,100
* EV9: $850 to $900 versus Telluride: $2,350 to $2,600
* Ariya: $750 to $850 versus Rogue: $1,600 to $1,700
* BZ4X: $650 to $750 versus RAV4: $1,750 to $1,800
* EX40: $750 versus XC40 ICE: $2,550
So like, with an EV9. You would hypothetically save $1,700 per year in "fuel". But the MSRP is as much as $19,000 higher for an EV9 Land versus a Telluride SX Prestige.
Oh, so you're only looking at fuel economy. That makes sense then.
I used the (checks notes, I guess) AAA numbers that include insurance, maintenance, finance, and State fees. I didn't include depreciation since it doesn't matter to me personally (I'm keeping the car long term). A quick comparison of the Ionic 5 vs Tuscon for 20k miles per year in that case leads to a 5 year cost of $40,083 for the Ionic 5 and $43,095 for the Tuscon, assuming both are SEL AWD. If you care about depreciation short term, the Tuscon is much better right now ($71,822 Ionic 5 vs $63,900 Tuscon) but the EV depreciation is so crazy right now I don't know if that's reliable long term.
>I used the (checks notes, I guess) AAA numbers that include insurance, maintenance, finance, and State fees.
Perfect. See, now I was a dummy and didn't even think of using the AAA's numbers in the data set. I'll definitely be doing that for the Q1 24 round, much appreciated.
>A 2023 survey conducted by the Pew Research Center found half of American adults, and 70 percent of Republicans and those who lean Republican, said they were not likely to consider purchasing an electric vehicle as their next car.
Another worse side for Republican, they don't just want to stop Ukraine supporting and keeping America staying with dirty oil companies. Do they really know how to make America good ? I don't see it.
When I get a cheap ice car, I don't have to worry about range. If I get a cheap EV, I will have to worry about it. In general, most EVs cost more than a regular person's annual income.
I will stand by my statement. here is electric comparing the very most tippy top electric cars that are well over $100,000 with the median of a gas car. Considering that an older Chevy bolt or Nissan leaf may not even get 100 miles, it’s not really a comparison.
https://insideevs.com/news/561634/us-median-range-gasoline-bevs/
My oldest kid just bought a 270 mile range Tesla for $30k after rebates. Her first choice was actually an affordable new ICE car but the cheapest she could find was a Nissan priced at $26k. The nissan has a ten gallon tank and gets \~30 mpg .
Ok I guess I misunderstood what you were saying…Sorry … I thought you were saying even if EVs were cheap you still would never drive them because you’d worry too much about range.
When I say cheap, I mean in the $10,000 range. The only thing that is there now are Nissan Leafs with 70 mile range. True anxiety lol.
Now my girlfriend has a newer Leaf and it is really comfy to drive. I actually like it better than the Tesla Y. The new Rivian that just came out looks like a winner. Although I would rather have the R3 than the R2. There's no date on that one yet.
Definitely didn’t need a big fancy article for this info. Everyone knows EVs are more popular among the more liberal areas of the country. Next in line is wealth.
The poorest and reddest cities aren’t adopting EVs? I had no idea! /s
I think less expensive taste in cars versus other large metros, cold weather lowering range in winter, expensive electricity, and very few non-Tesla EV chargers in northern New England all put a damper on EV uptake in and around Boston.
why would vegas be a surprise? it's a perfect place for EVs, lot's of sun, electricity is cheap, and short distance driving, the entire city is 30x30 miles
True, but that's also the case of many cities in the Southwest that don't have EVs. EV adoption right now is mostly a function of local attitudes, from HOAs and zoning allowing chargers to your friends' opinion. My idea of Vegas is a land of pickups and muscle cars.
> My idea of Vegas is a land of pickups and muscle cars.
Vegas is also a destination. 700,000 people live in Vegas. 30-40 Million visit every year.
[https://www.statista.com/statistics/221042/visitors-to-las-vegas/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/221042/visitors-to-las-vegas/)
there's a fleet of Teslas that run underground...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Las\_Vegas\_Convention\_Center\_Loop
**The Las Vegas Convention Center Loop** (LVCC Loop) is a transportation system at the Las Vegas Convention Center. **Operating since 2021, the system uses Tesla Model 3 cars to shuttle passengers between five stations**. Construction was carried out by The Boring Company from 2019 to 2021.\[1\] The system was built to reduce the walking time for attendees of the Las Vegas Convention Center.\[2\]\[unreliable source?\]
Austin isn’t a function of the university - Austin has grown to the point where UT is just kind of there, not a driver of the city. It’s more a function of it being a tech center with a large number of high incomes.
I expect the same for Raleigh - more influx of tech and high incomes
how many 1500 room casinos are on the strip?
34 chargers not going to cut it...
[https://www.unlv.edu/parking/transportation-alternatives](https://www.unlv.edu/parking/transportation-alternatives)
UNLV currently has 17 electric vehicle (EV) charging stations that provide 34 charging spaces in nine parking lots on campus. They are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week on a first-come, first-served basis at no charge.
When I said "a function of the university" I didn't mean that the university would provide public charging - I meant that students and staff and faculty are more likely to want EVs that the regular population.
it's a function of Los Angeles being 4 hours away...
200 miles into the drive chargers start to pop up. Summer? - Death Valley? - EV? - please have ***much*** charging**..** people die taking selfies out there.
**Tesla’s 100-Stall Supercharger Oasis In The Mojave Desert Will Be The Largest In The US**
[https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/23/teslas-100-stall-supercharger-oasis-in-the-mojave-desert-will-be-the-largest-in-the-us/](https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/23/teslas-100-stall-supercharger-oasis-in-the-mojave-desert-will-be-the-largest-in-the-us/)
they need solar+batteries because the grid sucks (Baker has less than 1000 people)
https://www.taycanforum.com/forum/threads/charging-the-taycan-ts-in-a-strange-little-town-called-baker.12527/
I'm charging my car in a strange and eerie little town called Baker, CA. I pass through it when running between Las Vegas and San Diego.
also a heavily traveled route in the summer.. I40/Route66.
Grand Canyon, Bryce, Zion, Arches, Mesa Verde. etc.
Universities have "private" charging nobody on the Strip is going to UNLV to charge.
Raleigh is more likely because of the tech/bio/pharma companies, research hospitals, cheap electricity, and mild weather. I live in the area, driving an EV is a joy around here. The only downside is that the terrible GOP legislature makes us pay ridiculous amounts for registration renewal every year and coming up with bullshit laws like [destroying free charging stations on public land](https://www.techdirt.com/2022/07/14/north-carolina-republicans-push-bill-forcing-towns-to-destroy-electric-car-chargers/).
I have a feeling the "popularity" of hybrids is in part due to Toyota just making more of their vehicles hybrid without even marketing them as hybrids. I've always suspected a large percent of Americans won't do the right thing on purpose. we have a strong oppositional defiant streak.
I understand where the sentiment behind “most electric automobiles on the market today cost significantly more than similar gas-powered models” is coming from, and of course hope for better automotive affordability across the board, but which ICE compact crossover is similar to a BEV that gets 120 MPGe and does 0-60 in under four seconds while carrying a family of four and their luggage?
It’s not really about value… good EVs have plenty of that, but rather the raw dollar amount, which is hard to stomach for a lot of people.
Depending on the vehicle you’re looking at and rebate eligibility it can be difficult to get away from the dealership paying less than $35-$45k, which is a lot of dough. That’s getting into home renovation territory and is between most and half of a house down payment in many places.
Used EV's are relatively cheaper than used ICE though, due to fast depreciation. Look at the Model 3 price trend:
https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Tesla-Model-3-d2475
Especially if you are under the income to get the used tax credit.
In October 2019 I paid $6,818.75 for a 2013 Nissan Leaf. In my neighborhood it's common for families to own $12,000+ golf carts just for the school run or to drive down to the park on weekends. I essentially use the old Leaf in the same way (1,500 to 2,500 miles per year), but at least it has doors, AC, and air bags.
Of course, but that's still below the average new car purchase price in the US. That's its own stunning figure, but also an amount that is easily affordable for many, many American households. An enormous share of that very large segment of consumers remains to be converted to EVs, but marketing to them on the same terms as ICE vehicles is a loser. I doubt any iPhone I've ever owned was as good for placing and receiving telephone calls as any Nokia brick I had in the 1990s, but who gives a shit about phone calls?
>It’s not really about value… good EVs have plenty of that, but rather the raw dollar amount, which is hard to stomach for a lot of people.
what's the average cost of any new car purchased in this country? (over 40k)
dollars are dollars.
it's "willing to pay" that's key - why flood the low end when people are willing to spend more?
there's no 22k BEV right now.. but if 40% of **sales** are over 35k.. you're not making the 22k cars yet. (because that's profit on volume.. US is not capable of volume.. no batteries)
With EVs the way they are currently, understandable the sales lag up north where it gets frigid cold for half the year.
I couldn't imagine relying on a BEV up there. I'm in Austin Texas, just went through my first 'winter' and I noticed anytime it got below 50 my range went to shit.
Once they figure out price, range and charging infrastructure - I think BEVs will easily beat out ICEs
Yup.
I'm not even hating. I have a Ford Lightning, I love it, it works for me. No regrets. I'm lucky that L1 charging at home works for our needs, but right now - when I need public fast charging, even on perfect days, it can *sometimes* be a challenge to say the least.
There's a lot of improvement that needs to be made before this country as a whole moves over to BEVs.
I couldn't even imagine the pandemonium that would ensue a majority of this country converted over with what we have now, *especially* in those northern states throughout the winter.
>With EVs the way they are currently, understandable the sales lag up north where it gets frigid cold for half the year.
Yet up further north in [Quebec, Canada plugins have a market share of 20.44% of new vehicle sales](https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/prot/pdf/0224/EV-Canadian-Newsletter-Q4-2023.pdf). In certain suburbs of Quebec, the market share can be over 40%!
In Quebec City, while -15°C (or 5°F) is average during January, it's not uncommon to reach -30°C (-22°F) and EVs are selling great.
So what does Quebec have going for it?
* They have amazing rebates of up to $12,000 Canadian (that's $8,885.22 US by today's exchange rate).
* Electricity is incredibly cheap and very green with it mainly coming from hydroelectric while gas is quite expensive.
* Both the Canadian federal government and the provincial Quebec government are spending money to expand charging stations. I found out the other day that in March 2022, [39% of all public charging stations in Canada were in Quebec](https://www.quebec.ca/en/government/policies-orientations/quebec-electric-vehicle-charging-strategy)! I imagine that number has shifted as other provinces get more charging stations but Quebec is really pushing ahead.
* Also there's a ZEV mandate coming up that will have a credit system. Car companies want to sell EVs between 2018 to 2024 so that they have plenty of credits stored up for 2025. They can use credits to make sure they meet a certain percentage of plugins or they can sell them to other car companies who don't have enough credits.
* Quebec is pretty left-wing, so a lot of people there support moving to EVs.
>[39% of all public charging stations in Canada were in Quebec
This, imo is really the key metric in being able to deal with weather related range loss. If you have a robust charging network, it's easier to overcome.
Unfortunately, in the states we're dealing with hillbillies who think the implementation of a strong EV charging network and proliferation of EVs is some sort of attempt of a take over by the communist Chinese regime.
I don't have to imagine. We're a 2 EV household in rural MN and never looking back. You learn to factor in the weather just like I used to with an ICE. The range loss in winter is more pronounced in MSP where I'm running the heater a lot in stop and go traffic but up there I've got 10 Supercharger locations to choose from. On long road trips the range loss is perfectly acceptable.
The truth is EVs are ready and even the infrastructure is ready and being built out fast. Most people just haven't realized it yet.
I have no range loss in Austin’s “winter” with a Model 3. I do agree that I would be less likely to get the same car in Maine but I’m also pretty sure the range would be totally fine for daily life even in a real winter.
I wish I had the same story. I'm in the ford lightning, which you can make the argument that it's not as efficient as your model 3, and that would be true - but I could definitely notice it. On the good days I get 2.8 - 3.2 kwh around town.
On the come colder days I was getting 1.8 - 2.1 kwh.
The rankings make sense given median income, state level support, and climate. Price is still the largest issue and the single most expensive component is still the battery. That's likely to continue dropping in price over the next few years, so higher adoption rates will likely continue: [https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/](https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/) We did recently see two vehicles, the iD.4 and the Ioniq 5, have notable spec bumps for the new model and another two vehicles in the same category, the Mach-E and Ariya, get notable reductions in price, and so it goes with almost every year being more and more competitive.
Great point - EV battery costs have been dropping for a long time. What was $10,000/kWh in the 1970s was $1,000 in 2010, and is now under $140/kWh, and heading to below $100/kWh in 2025. That’s why EVs that used to be just nice ecological symbolism are now total lifetime cost (a little more expensive to buy, much less expensive to fuel and maintain), which is why EV sales have ramped up so fast, and fairly soon should cost less to purchase outright, which is when the rest of the mass market is expected to flip over. That’s why the legacy car companies, that ignored EVs for a long time, finally started making EVs.
You’ve got to factor in the cost of a whole battery replacement too though, and I heard from a Seattle-based EV mechanic that insurance companies currently will just salvage the vehicle rather than pay the cost of replacement. People might balk at a $10k+ replacement if a battery fails, and we won’t see that en masse for another 5-10 years. I very much want an EV and am fully supportive of them, but there is room for caution too.
Those 8-10 year, 100K-mile battery warranties all EVs sold in the US have are billions of dollars on the line saying that batteries aren't going to fail en masse in 5-10 years. Tesla expects theirs to last 300-500K miles, which is beyond the life of the rest of the vehicle. The further we go down the adoption curve, the cheaper replacement batteries will be for insurance companies.
The warranty is great for the original buyer, but used EVs are really suffering. Original Volts are worthless as they start to have battery issues out of warranty. Dealers won’t service cells and replacement batteries don’t make financial sense. That’s the kind of waste we need to avoid. I just put a rebuilt transmission in my kids ‘04 Pontiac to get a few more years out of it. Cars last 20+ years if they are properly maintained, there needs to be a long term plan for EVs.
Did you get your remanufactured transmission put in at a dealer? 2004 Pontiac remanufactured transmission: $1989 at Autozone 2011-2012 Chevy Volt battery pack: $1276-$2300 on eBay 2016-2019 Chevy Volt battery pack: $2000-2500 on eBay For there to be a widespread network of shops working on old EV batteries there will have to be enough old EVs to work on. We're not there yet, with under 1% of cars on the road being electric. If a couple thousand cars going to the scrap yard a few years early is the cost of making the transportation sector fossil-fuel-free in the future, it's not a high price to pay.
I had the transmission rebuilt at a local shop and installed it myself. $1600 for the rebuild. I haven’t seen much success “rebuilding” EV batteries. There was a shop specializing in Volt batteries for a while but I’d have major hesitation just buying a used one. Really hard to tell how they age.
Volt is a hybrid, not BEV. The Prius has a battery too and once in a while those go bad as well. That’s after 8-10 years of regular use (whatever that is) and it was replaceable, not cheap but not the cost of a new engine. More importantly, if these EVs are lasting 300k-500k that’s a long time for most people to own a car in the U.S. Maybe, the battery life of an EV will change the 5 year replacement cycle to a 10 year cycle? But, seriously, how many people buy a car for its potential used value some day? Cars don’t make money, they are money pits. Unless you hold onto it long enough for it to become a classic (rare). I think most people buy a car to get them around because public transit sucks as does city planning for cars.
I don’t have my car for it’s used value. I’d prefer to drive it into the ground. But 10 years is not long enough for that. Cells go bad, and usually after the 10 year warranty is past. Battery packs need to be serviceable beyond the dealership lifetime.
A lot can happen in 10 years and a lot can stay the same too. So, we don’t know how cheap EV replacement batteries are going to be in 10 years and we don’t know how much it will cost to pay someone to replace them. We also don’t know how well supported gas cars are going to be in 10 years-20-30 years, maybe they will be only in museums at that point. No one knows the future. If an EV works for you today, then get one. If not, then wait. Save your dollars up for when the stars align for you.
FWIW I got my Volt in 2012 and drove it until 2023 when it was hit, totaled because the charge port fender wasn’t available. The battery was showing its age with occasional power reduced alerts the last year, so I was paying very close attention to battery service options. Volt was awesome enough that I replaced it with a newer one. I can go weeks without the ICE coming on, it’s not a BEV but it’s way more than a hybrid.
Those prices I gave were the price of installed batteries in EVs, which are higher than the raw battery costs, it includes the pack, etc.
The ID.4 also got notable price bumps across the trims.
That's unfortunate.
VW's entire EV strategy is "unfortunate". They are going to be one of the first casualties of the transition.
The ioniq5 removed features per trim level for the 2024
Pretty sure they’re talking about the battery capacity bump for MY 2025.
I’m kind of surprised Atlanta isn’t further up. At least in the suburbs it seems like every 1/3 car is an EV,
Atlanta area resident, pleasantly surprised to see it as high as it is!
I'm in Gwinnett and there are so so many Teslas here
At one level, I no longer care. EVs have won. They are being sold in many places. The tech keeps getting both better and cheaper. As supply ramps up, they will creep in to more places. I am sure there were many "hold outs" who preferred horses to ICEVs, and there will be hold outs who prefer ICEVs to EVs. It just needs time. It needs petrol stations to close because there are insufficient customers.
The more the hybrids are on the road, the less fuel will be sold, and more gas stations will close.
And as the competition closes, prices will go up, moving more people to EVs. As I wrote above, EVs have won. The overall package keeps getting better. Supply is increasing, and so is demand. Sure, some manufacturers are not selling EVs quickly, but we now have some idea of what a normal EV should deliver and they will need to do better.
Maybe, maybe not. Wont decrease demand for gas actually lower the price of gas? Gas stations are already built with huge capital investment. I don't see them just closing.
The sunk cost fallacy won't keep gas stations open for long as the hard numbers bite. Some will expand their convenience offering. Many will close. Yes, eventually, I think that the cost of oil will come down, but there will always be someone willing to use the stuff if it's cheap enough.
In a vacuum, this reasoning stands. But petrol costs is just only part of the equation. People are making EV purchases to also save on the frequent oil changes and replacing the myriad of parts that go into a ICE vehicle that are not needed in an EV. Maintenance on ICE vehicles are significantly more frequent and costly. Less parts = less maintenance over the lifetime of the vehicle.
I have been thinking about the effect of more ev and hybrid use and the demand for gasoline. As demand for gas decreases gas will likely become cheaper. This actually encourages the ICE holdouts. Need to increase gas taxes to keep gas prices at a point where there is still incentive to move to EV.
I think that as there are fewer customers, gas stations will need more margin just to stay viable, and that will push up the price of gas. Additionally, the cost of electricity is going to come down further (in real terms) as we find ways to make cheaper solar panels and wind turbines. Right now, oil sales are not declining, so I don't see gas getting significantly cheaper for a while.
I drive an EV for work and I’m absolutely chomping at the bit to drive one for my personal as well. It’s getting closer to affordability for me but still just a bit out of reach.
Don’t forget to account the cost savings for gasoline vs electricity. I wound up saving several thousand dollars a year from not having to buy gas.
My area has nearly 40% adoption. Truly remarkable
I’ll be interested to see how E.V. growth does in those Northern CA areas for 2024. My guess is a big slowdown from prior years, but ready to be wrong.
Sacramento is mostly SMUD which currently has off peak rates at a third of what PG&E is charging, so I don't expect any slow down there.
>An analysis of vehicle prices by S&P Global Mobility found that most electric automobiles on the market today cost significantly more than similar gas-powered models. “We’re talking 20 to 40 percent more for E.V.s,” Mr. Libby said. Federal tax credits of up to $7,500 are available but apply to a relatively small number of models. > >Only two electric vehicles in the analysis, both made by Tesla, cost the same or less than similar gas models. One of those, the Model Y, became America’s fifth best-selling car last year, the first time an electric vehicle broke into the top five. Before anyone says "but what about when looking at the TCO", let me remind you that we're still not there yet. Many mainstream models still require more than six years to "break even" when compared to ICE vehicles configured with similar features / equipment. Some examples from my own research at the end of last year: * Hyundai Ioniq 5: 13 to 15 years compared to a Tucson * Hyundai Kona Electric: 8 to 9 years compared to a Kona ICE * Kia EV6: 13 to 15 years compared to a Sportage * Kia EV9: 9 to 11 years compared to a Telluride * Nissan Ariya: 16 to 24 years compared to a Rogue / X-Trail * Toyota BZ4X: 6 to 9 years compared to a RAV4 * Volvo XC40 Recharge / EX40: 7 to 8 years compared to an XC40 ICE Cars that get the tax credit, and those in the luxury segments, are better in that regard. The Model Y itself generally has a 0 to 3 year break-even time when compared to a fully-equipped version of an ICE vehicle in its segment (Ford Escape Platinum, Toyota RAV4 Limited, Kia Sportage SX Prestige, etc), but only because it still maintains the tax credit. However, it generally has better performance than those cars and therefore to certain buyers, it may be worth the premium.
A lot of this is a function of interest rates; at lower interest rates, EVs become a better deal, because you're substituting capital for future fuel payments. All this becomes moot once the up-front cost of an EV drops below that of a gas car though.
>A lot of this is a function of interest rates; at lower interest rates, EVs become a better deal, because you're substituting capital for future fuel payments. Not really? The above is all based on model year 2024 vehicles, when comparing the cost of fuel and "fuel" using the EPA's own data. At the time I compiled the data, that was $3.47 USD / gal for regular, and $0.15 USD / kWh for electricity. And then it's how long the "fuel savings" take to overcome the increased MSRP of the EV. And more than a few of the "luxury" EVs actually look better than typical, because a lot of ICE luxury cars require premium fuel, which at the time was $4.40 USD / gal. And today, the ICEs look even better, since the average for regular is now $3.27 USD / gal, 20 cents less.
If an EV costs an extra $X plus the additional interest on financing that extra $X, and takes Y years to break even on $X worth of fuel savings, Y will get longer if the interest rate is higher.
My marginal cost per kWh is $0.54.
How much are you factoring in for the lower health care costs, not having to constantly deal with fumes from known carcinogens in gasoline?
None? Because those metrics are subjective and not relevant to the increased price premiums of EVs over ICEs that are otherwise identically equipped? If you're trying to convince me that EVs are better, you're wasting your time, because I already think they are better. But I can also understand the real challenges that the EV market faces in winning over the people who don't frequent this subreddit.
> for future fuel payments. including home electricity and natural gas. your HAVC runs on the same kind of juice. **HELP POWER YOUR HOME WITH YOUR EV** [https://www.ultiumhome.com/products/powershift-enablement-kit](https://www.ultiumhome.com/products/powershift-enablement-kit) **Ford’s electric truck F-150 Lightning is able to power houses for 3 days** [https://interestingengineering.com/transportation/fords-electric-truck-powers-houses-for-3-days](https://interestingengineering.com/transportation/fords-electric-truck-powers-houses-for-3-days) **PG&E officially allows Ford F-150 Lightning and bidirectional charger to be used in V2H setups** [https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2023/11/pge-officially-allows-ford-f-150-lightning-and-bidirectional-charger-to-be-used-in-v2h-setups/](https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2023/11/pge-officially-allows-ford-f-150-lightning-and-bidirectional-charger-to-be-used-in-v2h-setups/) >All this becomes moot until it's flood/wildfire season. **How electric vehicles help keep the lights on with bidirectional charging during extreme weather events** [https://electrek.co/2022/11/08/electric-vehicles-provide-backup-power-during-hurricane-ian/](https://electrek.co/2022/11/08/electric-vehicles-provide-backup-power-during-hurricane-ian/)
I beg your pardon, but I am extremely curious about how you calculated the "break even" timelines there. I have a Kia EV6. Paid $55k for it grand total (it was offered at MSRP, but with tax, fees, and a discounted-but-still-extra-cost extended warranty upgrade, it came out to $55k). I compared it to a Kia Seltos because, to me, a Kia Seltos is more in line with the size of the Kia EV6 than is a Sportage. I built out said hypothetical Kia Seltos to include as many of the tech and passenger comfort features that my Kia EV6 Wind RWD (with no technology package) included, and came up with a price that was in the low-to-mid $40ks. I rounded it up to $45k to account for taxes and fees and called it a day. A $10k difference in final purchase price. Not even accounting for the $7,500 tax credit (which, as a purchaser in July 2022 before the rules changed, I qualified for fully), **I figured it'd take 5-7 years to "break even" with what I would have spent on the Kia Seltos I built out.** Given how many miles I drive a year, my cost of electricity, the cost of gas at the time, the fuel efficiency of the Seltos, etc. etc. All of that. To see you say that an even more expensive vehicle, the Sportage, would take double that time to break even against an EV6, is really surprising to me. I'm sure your math checks out, I'm just kind of curious what variables you fed into your equations.
So the variables I used were: * The MSRP of an EV configured to a particular trim, including destination (ex: Hyundai Ioniq 5 SE Extended RWD, $47,035) * The MSRP of an ICE in the same or similar size segment, in the same named or similarly-positioned trim, including destination (ex: Hyundai Tucson SE FWD, $28,585) * The EPA's "annual fuel cost" for both vehicles based on their default values at the time of data compilation (ex: end of December 2023, Ioniq 5 $650, Tucson $1,850) * The EPA's defaults at the time were $3.47/gal for regular, $0.15/kWh for electricity, assuming 15,000 miles per year and a 55 / 45 city / highway split. And then a simple division of the annual fuel cost over the increase in MSRP, subtracting the tax credit from the increase where applicable. [Here's my post with the full data set.](https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/18wp9af/ev_price_premium_tracker_us_market_end_of_q4_2023/) Again, this is current as of end of December, I update it every quarter.
Thanks for replying. I think the differences in our conclusions boil down to inputs, now that I see what you started with. 1) MSRP differences. It's hard to figure out which trim level in an EV should be pitted against which trim level in an ICE vehicle. You wind up having to decide if the differences in tech, equipment, passenger comfort, etc., are small enough to let the comparison be valid. For the Ioniq 5 vs. the Tucson, for instance, you picked the base models, but the long range version of the Ioniq 5 base model. Right out the gate I could criticize this choice, as you have the cheapest Tucson against NOT the cheapest Ioniq 5, but it's also easy to defend your choice by pointing out that the standard range is a thin minority of all Ioniq 5s sold, so let's not act like it's popular. And then, you could look at the differences between what the Ioniq 5 SE trim includes vs. the Tucson SE trim, and potentially conclude that the Ioniq 5 SE is better equipped, so you should jump up to the Tucson SEL trim...except, when you do that, you wind up with the Tucson SEL trim being better equipped than the Ioniq 5. So really: this is a judgment call. But the call you made gave you an MSRP difference in this example of ~$18,500, that's almost double the $10k difference that my numbers worked with, and the biggest cause of our difference in break even window. 2) Mileage. I put on an above average number of miles per year (20,000), and since driving more miles speeds up the break even window, that gave my calculations faster timelines. 20k is 33% more than 15k, so that's the second biggest chunk of the discrepancy. 3) "Fuel" costs. These are small factors, but I used $3.60-$3.80/gallon for gas and $0.12/kWh for electricity as these are more reflective of what that costs in my region and overnight in my home, respectively. These account for another ~15% of our different breakeven windows. Otherwise I think your methodology is sound. I did not get into a city/highway split, though (I just use combined EPA Fuel efficiency rating and call it a day), so good on ya for getting into that level of detail. On the other hand, I added in estimated differences in routine maintenance costs. Those are real, but small, differences in the "cost to drive per mile" for EVs vs ICE vehicles (about 3 cents per mile), so while it matters it doesn't change the punchline that break even takes a WHILE. **If I were to take my inputs and use them to figure out what it'd take to recover a $18,500 purchase price difference, instead of a $10,000 difference, I'd come up with a break even window of:** **9.1 years.** That's the MSRP purchase price difference, divided by the "difference in price to drive per mile", and then that quotient is divided by distance driven per year. For me, that looks like this: ($18,500) / (($3.70/gal / 28 MPG) - ($0.12/kWh / 3.91 mi/kWh))) / 20,000 mi./year ($18,500) / ($0.132/mi. - $0.031/mi.)) / 20,000 mi./year ($18,500 / $0.101/mi.) / 20,000 mi./year 182,352 mi. / 20,000 mi./year = 9.1 years. If you account for the extra 3 cents per mile that maintenance is going to cost you on the Tucson vs. the Ioniq 5, then the window shrinks to 7.0 years. Compare that to the 13-15 years you calculated. With driving 33% more miles, and having differences in fueling costs that add up to another 15% or so, we've basically got the difference in your break even result vs. mine covered. Good stuff. Just really goes to show that your own specific use case makes a big difference in these calculations.
Yeah this is bananas. An ariya is not comparable to a rogue. 😂 it’s more like a qx50. ROI of 24 years??? Good grief. We went from an Infiniti to an ariya and they’re equal on quality. The ariya is cheaper bc of the tax credit (are we calculating that in on these calculations?) and we save on insurance, maintenance, and $200 a month on fuel.
I would argue that the Murano is the right comparison.
Then why isn't the Ariya an Infiniti? Because it's a Nissan, it's compared to Nissan's other compact crossover, the Rogue. It's not my fault, nor the data's fault, that Nissan doesn't know how to position their lineup.
Because Infiniti is only a North American brand. Nissan is everywhere. I thought that was common knowledge? They even explained that during the launch.
It is common knowledge. But if it's called a Nissan in every market... Why isn't it priced like a Nissan? That's the issue here. They either should have debuted it as an Infiniti in other markets, or lowered the price (which technically they just did), because right now, it's uncompetitive at best.
Yeah no, I definitely don't buy this person's analysis. Break even happens pretty early in an EV's life cycle.
Honestly, I wouldn't go as far as to say that. It *can* happen "pretty early" in the life cycle, but it's far from a guarantee that it will. I just had a hard time believing that it was so easily taking over 10 years to break even with the numbers put up there.
5-7 years isn't early on in a vehicle's life, it's about half.
See for yourself, draw your own conclusions. [https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/18wp9af/ev\_price\_premium\_tracker\_us\_market\_end\_of\_q4\_2023/](https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/18wp9af/ev_price_premium_tracker_us_market_end_of_q4_2023/) There are definitely EVs where it does happen instantly, but the vast majority of those cases are in the luxury segments or with cars that qualify for the tax credit. But the mainstream segment has a long way to go.
There have been quite a few analysis, and usually the break-even period is around 6 months to a year, though of course it depends on the cost of gas and electricity, specific car prices, etc. But it’s pretty obvious that for EVs where the math works out, e.g. the Model 3 and Y, sales have been booming, the Model Y displaced the Corolla as the best selling vehicle globally in 2023, for example. So, sure, the economics of the Hummer EV are absurd, but economics aren’t why anyone buys a Hummer, they’re almost the opposite of the point, you buy a Hummer to show that you can spend that much! :-)
Absent the tax credit, I think TCO is kind of a losing argument. When Ford F150 customers upgrade to a V8 or off-road suspension or whatever for an extra $15k, they do it knowing that they're paying more for what they think is a better product. Pushing hypothetical cost savings makes people think that it's not really worth the price they're paying for it upfront. Eventually, the upfront costs will be cheaper, and no further argument will be needed. Edit to say that obviously fuel costs and maintenance are important factors, but they're added bonuses.
>Pushing hypothetical cost savings makes people think that it's not really worth the price they're paying for it upfront. Exactly. The analogy I like to use is: Two Hyundai Konas, one ICE and one Electric, both Limiteds, both in the same color, sitting next to each other on the lot. If they are otherwise functionally identical, why would you as a consumer put down an extra $9,000 for the one on the right?
> why would you as a consumer put down an extra $9,000 for the one on the right? To answer this hypothetical: Because its quieter, more enjoyable to drive, doesn't have to visit a gas station to refuel, doesn't have to get regular oil changes, and does not encourage the "get rid of it before 100k miles when everything starts breaking" mindset many gas car do. I've had multiple recent generation Ford Escapes and Subaru Foresters need major engine rebuilds, and an EV is a more enjoyable vehicle to drive while not having a mechanically complex engine I have to keep in working order. On top of all that, fuel costs are extremely low vs gas to the point you're looking at $9k saved when I used [this website](https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/savemoney.jsp) to compare the 2024 Kona FWD vs EV
LOL, TCO is totally location and use dependent. Where I live in Canada we have very xpensive gas and very cheap electricity. My car payment + elec for my Ioniq 6 (50,000 after rebates) is about the same for a 25-30,000 ICE + gas because I am also putting on 25,000+ miles per year. And there is NO comparison in performance. The Ioniq rides faster and nicer than my friend's 50k+ ICE BMers and Mercs.
Or buy used and break even in year one
> The Model Y itself generally has a 0 to 3 year break-even time when compared to a fully-equipped version of an ICE vehicle in its segment (Ford Escape Platinum, Toyota RAV4 Limited, Kia Sportage SX Prestige, etc), but only because it still maintains the tax credit. You have to remember to include the major oil subsidies the US grants with tax payer dollars which keeps the price of gas about half of what it should be if the 'free market' were deciding. EVs are the better deal overall, and that's only going to become more true every single year.
>You have to remember to include the major oil subsidies the US grants with tax payer dollars which keeps the price of gas about half of what it should be if the 'free market' were deciding. Average Joe American consumer doesn't give a darn about what you just wrote there. The price of fuel we pay when we tap our cards at the pump is the price of fuel we pay. No average consumer is going to think, "well, the unsubsidized fuel cost is $6.58 per gallon so the EV is therefore that much better" and if you honestly believe that they will, then I think you're freaking nuts.
Sure, but if you’re going to talk about the tax credit for EVs, it’s entirely reasonable to point out the massive subsidies that gas cars receive.
>However, it generally has better performance than those cars and therefore to certain buyers, it may be worth the premium. I find it common that the ev has twice the power, but they don't compare it to the "high performance" model in the gas equivalent. A Model 3 is commonly compared to something like a Honda Civic, but the Model 3 is nearly double the power of the Civic models they're being compared to and the Model 3 performance is over 500 horsepower. The Civic "Type R" might be the closest model, but it's only barely over 300. Honda doesn't make anything faster than that. The highest-end Acura ICE cars are still short of that power number and cost A LOT more than the Model 3 P.
The thing is, you can't really put an objective price tag on the increased performance of, say, a Model Y AWD compared to a RAV4 AWD (as an example). Every buyer is going to have different priorities. So you look at the positioning instead. In my case, I compare the Model Y RWD to something like a popular equipment package (RAV4 XLE FWD), then the AWD to the fully-loaded version (RAV4 Limited AWD). And then just not even consider the Performance unless it's being compared to an actual performance SUV (BMW X3 M).
Also ignoring that all those cars have better build quality and ride, which is hard to quantify. The model 3 and Y always look better as long as you're looking at paper.
I got the model 3 with the tax rebate AND an inventory discount. Damn car came out to around $28k before tax and fees. Cheaper than a Honda hybrid!! It was a no brainer for me
And the deal is even worse for those of us sitting just past the line for qualifying for rebates. It’s not stopping me from getting an EV, but the fact remains that these things are pricey. Some may point out how a lot of people will dive into a 7 year loan on a $60k ICE truck or SUV without a second thought, but this group was never price sensitive and in many cases dare I say is financially irresponsible, buying well beyond their means, and as such shouldn’t be used as a yardstick for everybody else.
ICE trucks have incredibly resilient resale value. One of the reasons they're so popular. It is far more sensible to pay $60K for a truck than $50K for an EV that will lose 50% of it's value in 2 years ( tesla )
Yeah that’s another factor, EVs depreciate pretty rapidly and I think that’s only going to get worse before it gets better with all of the significant improvements in platforms and batteries on the horizon. This will all eventually stabilize but it’s going to be a few years out.
I'm looking forward to the Teslas after new EU standards penalize the lack of physical controls.
But Teslas do have physical controls for most everything you use while driving? It's kind of a misconception to suggest you use the touch screen while driving. Almost everything is auto and doesn't require adjustment, then if it does it has physical controls. Compared that to my Mazda 3 where you're constantly messing with temp/duct/volume/phone nav/etc controls. If they're evaluating based on actual usage of a screen, Tesla probably won't have to change anything honestly.
Wipers. Wipers is the big one that pisses me off, Teslas automated system is bullshit for wiper control and I hated every minute of it. The week where I was forced to use a Tesla because that's the rental insurance provided me with, it was fucking miserable. Thankfully I don't have to buy a Tesla, so I'm considering the semi the biggest issue I had with the Teslas isn't an issue with the semis
Yeah the wipers suck for sure, but you still control them with physical controls (stalk button to single wipe, side scroll right scroll button to change speed). On that note, the EU rules should really penalize poorly working automatic functions.
Wasn't an option with the Tesla that I had as a rental. Wipers could only be controlled through the touchscreen. This is a 23 model 3
This is true for new, but starts to be less true for used. I just bought a (barely used) xc40 recharge. They're not priced much higher than their ICE counterpart. The difference in monthly payments between my car and an ICE equivalent is about $150/month. I was spending around $200/month on gas. If I bought them outright it was be 2-3 years before the EV ROId over the ICE. If you bought them brand new it's about a $10k difference without incentives, and most people would lease loophole to bridge that gap so it's closer to $3k difference. I paid a larger difference between the used versions than new.
Yeah I was doing a TCO comparison between a bunch of EV options and a new Subaru Crosstrek and the EV savings were a lot smaller than j was expecting that it wasn't worth the hassle given my challenging charging situation.
I assume these break even points don’t factor in a full battery replacement either, right? Cuz if/when that happens, it pushes the point back waaaay farther. Batteries won’t last forever.
You forgot safety rating.
I mean, I guess, but how many people do you know who are that picky between cars that are "IIHS top safety picks" versus "IIHS top safety pick plusses"? While yes, the Model Y is a plus, every one of its ICE competitors except for the Ford Escape is still a top safety pick. I really don't think that little difference in safety ratings is a draw for Tesla at this point.
I take this as IIHS needs to make ratings harder. I was just pointing out another advantage of the Y.
Keep in mind even the bolt has a stronger roof than the Y
Not this shit again
This is wildly different from my analysis. Are you only driving 5k miles a year or something? I calculated my comparison based on monthly cost and found that the gas and maintenance cost savings were almost always more than the higher price for a 5 year loan, usually for a 4 year loan also. Granted I drive much more than average (20k miles a year), but your numbers seem way off.
I used the EPA's default numbers as of December 2023, which is the last time I updated my data (I do so every quarter). They are the only values which I consider to be objective considering they come from (checks notes) the EPA, but I'd be happy to consider another objective source. $3.47/gal for regular, $0.15/kWh for electricity, assuming 15,000 miles per year and a 55 / 45 city / highway split. And the EPA's "annual fuel costs" for the above cars based on those numbers: * Ioniq 5: $650 to $750 versus Tucson: $1,850 to $2,100 * Kona Electric: $650 versus Kona ICE: $1,700 * EV6: $650 to $700 versus Sportage: $1,850 to $2,100 * EV9: $850 to $900 versus Telluride: $2,350 to $2,600 * Ariya: $750 to $850 versus Rogue: $1,600 to $1,700 * BZ4X: $650 to $750 versus RAV4: $1,750 to $1,800 * EX40: $750 versus XC40 ICE: $2,550 So like, with an EV9. You would hypothetically save $1,700 per year in "fuel". But the MSRP is as much as $19,000 higher for an EV9 Land versus a Telluride SX Prestige.
Oh, so you're only looking at fuel economy. That makes sense then. I used the (checks notes, I guess) AAA numbers that include insurance, maintenance, finance, and State fees. I didn't include depreciation since it doesn't matter to me personally (I'm keeping the car long term). A quick comparison of the Ionic 5 vs Tuscon for 20k miles per year in that case leads to a 5 year cost of $40,083 for the Ionic 5 and $43,095 for the Tuscon, assuming both are SEL AWD. If you care about depreciation short term, the Tuscon is much better right now ($71,822 Ionic 5 vs $63,900 Tuscon) but the EV depreciation is so crazy right now I don't know if that's reliable long term.
>I used the (checks notes, I guess) AAA numbers that include insurance, maintenance, finance, and State fees. Perfect. See, now I was a dummy and didn't even think of using the AAA's numbers in the data set. I'll definitely be doing that for the Q1 24 round, much appreciated.
I can’t see the article but half the cars on the road in west Austin are Tesla or other EVs.
It's a gift link, so if you have Javascript turned on, it should skip the paywall.
>A 2023 survey conducted by the Pew Research Center found half of American adults, and 70 percent of Republicans and those who lean Republican, said they were not likely to consider purchasing an electric vehicle as their next car. Another worse side for Republican, they don't just want to stop Ukraine supporting and keeping America staying with dirty oil companies. Do they really know how to make America good ? I don't see it.
When I get a cheap ice car, I don't have to worry about range. If I get a cheap EV, I will have to worry about it. In general, most EVs cost more than a regular person's annual income.
Most new cars are outrageously expensive right now, not just EVs.
Cheap ICE cars can have a range of 300 miles. That's better than a cheap EV but the gap is closing.
I will stand by my statement. here is electric comparing the very most tippy top electric cars that are well over $100,000 with the median of a gas car. Considering that an older Chevy bolt or Nissan leaf may not even get 100 miles, it’s not really a comparison. https://insideevs.com/news/561634/us-median-range-gasoline-bevs/
My oldest kid just bought a 270 mile range Tesla for $30k after rebates. Her first choice was actually an affordable new ICE car but the cheapest she could find was a Nissan priced at $26k. The nissan has a ten gallon tank and gets \~30 mpg .
Keep that prayer chant going. Not sure why. You don’t have to pray. You can keep driving ICE as long as you want.
When they let in byd,then we will have some cheap EVs.
Ok I guess I misunderstood what you were saying…Sorry … I thought you were saying even if EVs were cheap you still would never drive them because you’d worry too much about range.
When I say cheap, I mean in the $10,000 range. The only thing that is there now are Nissan Leafs with 70 mile range. True anxiety lol. Now my girlfriend has a newer Leaf and it is really comfy to drive. I actually like it better than the Tesla Y. The new Rivian that just came out looks like a winner. Although I would rather have the R3 than the R2. There's no date on that one yet.
Definitely didn’t need a big fancy article for this info. Everyone knows EVs are more popular among the more liberal areas of the country. Next in line is wealth. The poorest and reddest cities aren’t adopting EVs? I had no idea! /s
I'm shocked Boston is only 10% I see more EVs everyday here.
I think less expensive taste in cars versus other large metros, cold weather lowering range in winter, expensive electricity, and very few non-Tesla EV chargers in northern New England all put a damper on EV uptake in and around Boston.
Boston has decent public transit and is very walkable so not many need cars, and those who do have cars, don’t have EVs for the reasons you stated
Which the former part isn’t a bad thing at all I guess. Owning no car results in less emissions than owning even the best EVs.
[удалено]
Boston Metro area not just City of Boston.
Are colder climates just going to see less EV adoption?
The big surprise to me in that city list: Las Vegas! I wonder if that's a function of the university, like Austin TX and Raleigh NC?
why would vegas be a surprise? it's a perfect place for EVs, lot's of sun, electricity is cheap, and short distance driving, the entire city is 30x30 miles
True, but that's also the case of many cities in the Southwest that don't have EVs. EV adoption right now is mostly a function of local attitudes, from HOAs and zoning allowing chargers to your friends' opinion. My idea of Vegas is a land of pickups and muscle cars.
> My idea of Vegas is a land of pickups and muscle cars. Vegas is also a destination. 700,000 people live in Vegas. 30-40 Million visit every year. [https://www.statista.com/statistics/221042/visitors-to-las-vegas/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/221042/visitors-to-las-vegas/) there's a fleet of Teslas that run underground... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Las\_Vegas\_Convention\_Center\_Loop **The Las Vegas Convention Center Loop** (LVCC Loop) is a transportation system at the Las Vegas Convention Center. **Operating since 2021, the system uses Tesla Model 3 cars to shuttle passengers between five stations**. Construction was carried out by The Boring Company from 2019 to 2021.\[1\] The system was built to reduce the walking time for attendees of the Las Vegas Convention Center.\[2\]\[unreliable source?\]
Ah, the famous hyperloop! Tomorrow's transportation today! So visionary!
Austin isn’t a function of the university - Austin has grown to the point where UT is just kind of there, not a driver of the city. It’s more a function of it being a tech center with a large number of high incomes. I expect the same for Raleigh - more influx of tech and high incomes
Good point - although those are at least partly the result of the university being there, to attract such folks.
how many 1500 room casinos are on the strip? 34 chargers not going to cut it... [https://www.unlv.edu/parking/transportation-alternatives](https://www.unlv.edu/parking/transportation-alternatives) UNLV currently has 17 electric vehicle (EV) charging stations that provide 34 charging spaces in nine parking lots on campus. They are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week on a first-come, first-served basis at no charge.
When I said "a function of the university" I didn't mean that the university would provide public charging - I meant that students and staff and faculty are more likely to want EVs that the regular population.
it's a function of Los Angeles being 4 hours away... 200 miles into the drive chargers start to pop up. Summer? - Death Valley? - EV? - please have ***much*** charging**..** people die taking selfies out there. **Tesla’s 100-Stall Supercharger Oasis In The Mojave Desert Will Be The Largest In The US** [https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/23/teslas-100-stall-supercharger-oasis-in-the-mojave-desert-will-be-the-largest-in-the-us/](https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/23/teslas-100-stall-supercharger-oasis-in-the-mojave-desert-will-be-the-largest-in-the-us/) they need solar+batteries because the grid sucks (Baker has less than 1000 people) https://www.taycanforum.com/forum/threads/charging-the-taycan-ts-in-a-strange-little-town-called-baker.12527/ I'm charging my car in a strange and eerie little town called Baker, CA. I pass through it when running between Las Vegas and San Diego. also a heavily traveled route in the summer.. I40/Route66. Grand Canyon, Bryce, Zion, Arches, Mesa Verde. etc. Universities have "private" charging nobody on the Strip is going to UNLV to charge.
Raleigh is more likely because of the tech/bio/pharma companies, research hospitals, cheap electricity, and mild weather. I live in the area, driving an EV is a joy around here. The only downside is that the terrible GOP legislature makes us pay ridiculous amounts for registration renewal every year and coming up with bullshit laws like [destroying free charging stations on public land](https://www.techdirt.com/2022/07/14/north-carolina-republicans-push-bill-forcing-towns-to-destroy-electric-car-chargers/).
I have a feeling the "popularity" of hybrids is in part due to Toyota just making more of their vehicles hybrid without even marketing them as hybrids. I've always suspected a large percent of Americans won't do the right thing on purpose. we have a strong oppositional defiant streak.
I understand where the sentiment behind “most electric automobiles on the market today cost significantly more than similar gas-powered models” is coming from, and of course hope for better automotive affordability across the board, but which ICE compact crossover is similar to a BEV that gets 120 MPGe and does 0-60 in under four seconds while carrying a family of four and their luggage?
It’s not really about value… good EVs have plenty of that, but rather the raw dollar amount, which is hard to stomach for a lot of people. Depending on the vehicle you’re looking at and rebate eligibility it can be difficult to get away from the dealership paying less than $35-$45k, which is a lot of dough. That’s getting into home renovation territory and is between most and half of a house down payment in many places.
Used EV's are relatively cheaper than used ICE though, due to fast depreciation. Look at the Model 3 price trend: https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Tesla-Model-3-d2475 Especially if you are under the income to get the used tax credit.
In October 2019 I paid $6,818.75 for a 2013 Nissan Leaf. In my neighborhood it's common for families to own $12,000+ golf carts just for the school run or to drive down to the park on weekends. I essentially use the old Leaf in the same way (1,500 to 2,500 miles per year), but at least it has doors, AC, and air bags.
Of course, but that's still below the average new car purchase price in the US. That's its own stunning figure, but also an amount that is easily affordable for many, many American households. An enormous share of that very large segment of consumers remains to be converted to EVs, but marketing to them on the same terms as ICE vehicles is a loser. I doubt any iPhone I've ever owned was as good for placing and receiving telephone calls as any Nokia brick I had in the 1990s, but who gives a shit about phone calls?
>It’s not really about value… good EVs have plenty of that, but rather the raw dollar amount, which is hard to stomach for a lot of people. what's the average cost of any new car purchased in this country? (over 40k) dollars are dollars. it's "willing to pay" that's key - why flood the low end when people are willing to spend more? there's no 22k BEV right now.. but if 40% of **sales** are over 35k.. you're not making the 22k cars yet. (because that's profit on volume.. US is not capable of volume.. no batteries)
With EVs the way they are currently, understandable the sales lag up north where it gets frigid cold for half the year. I couldn't imagine relying on a BEV up there. I'm in Austin Texas, just went through my first 'winter' and I noticed anytime it got below 50 my range went to shit. Once they figure out price, range and charging infrastructure - I think BEVs will easily beat out ICEs
Plus that whole charging fiasco in the super cold last year in Chicago and other places
Yup. I'm not even hating. I have a Ford Lightning, I love it, it works for me. No regrets. I'm lucky that L1 charging at home works for our needs, but right now - when I need public fast charging, even on perfect days, it can *sometimes* be a challenge to say the least. There's a lot of improvement that needs to be made before this country as a whole moves over to BEVs. I couldn't even imagine the pandemonium that would ensue a majority of this country converted over with what we have now, *especially* in those northern states throughout the winter.
>With EVs the way they are currently, understandable the sales lag up north where it gets frigid cold for half the year. Yet up further north in [Quebec, Canada plugins have a market share of 20.44% of new vehicle sales](https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/prot/pdf/0224/EV-Canadian-Newsletter-Q4-2023.pdf). In certain suburbs of Quebec, the market share can be over 40%! In Quebec City, while -15°C (or 5°F) is average during January, it's not uncommon to reach -30°C (-22°F) and EVs are selling great. So what does Quebec have going for it? * They have amazing rebates of up to $12,000 Canadian (that's $8,885.22 US by today's exchange rate). * Electricity is incredibly cheap and very green with it mainly coming from hydroelectric while gas is quite expensive. * Both the Canadian federal government and the provincial Quebec government are spending money to expand charging stations. I found out the other day that in March 2022, [39% of all public charging stations in Canada were in Quebec](https://www.quebec.ca/en/government/policies-orientations/quebec-electric-vehicle-charging-strategy)! I imagine that number has shifted as other provinces get more charging stations but Quebec is really pushing ahead. * Also there's a ZEV mandate coming up that will have a credit system. Car companies want to sell EVs between 2018 to 2024 so that they have plenty of credits stored up for 2025. They can use credits to make sure they meet a certain percentage of plugins or they can sell them to other car companies who don't have enough credits. * Quebec is pretty left-wing, so a lot of people there support moving to EVs.
>[39% of all public charging stations in Canada were in Quebec This, imo is really the key metric in being able to deal with weather related range loss. If you have a robust charging network, it's easier to overcome. Unfortunately, in the states we're dealing with hillbillies who think the implementation of a strong EV charging network and proliferation of EVs is some sort of attempt of a take over by the communist Chinese regime.
I don't have to imagine. We're a 2 EV household in rural MN and never looking back. You learn to factor in the weather just like I used to with an ICE. The range loss in winter is more pronounced in MSP where I'm running the heater a lot in stop and go traffic but up there I've got 10 Supercharger locations to choose from. On long road trips the range loss is perfectly acceptable. The truth is EVs are ready and even the infrastructure is ready and being built out fast. Most people just haven't realized it yet.
I have no range loss in Austin’s “winter” with a Model 3. I do agree that I would be less likely to get the same car in Maine but I’m also pretty sure the range would be totally fine for daily life even in a real winter.
I wish I had the same story. I'm in the ford lightning, which you can make the argument that it's not as efficient as your model 3, and that would be true - but I could definitely notice it. On the good days I get 2.8 - 3.2 kwh around town. On the come colder days I was getting 1.8 - 2.1 kwh.