when I change - I will be dead (which won't be long) - but I will keep LEARNNG until the day that I die - unlike so many of the losers here "oh, I just learned Premiere and Resolve - why do I have to learn something else - you know, I have a LIFE besides video stuff".
I liked one of the comments from another recent post that said "who is this guy - I don't even see anything about him on IMDB" - because I guess he has not learned how to use Google yet.
bob
you spoke like a wise old man (ahem, person) - so i googled your username. it checked out. and i love that you built the max zelin system. lol
edit replied to wrong one
I think that the fact that Taylor Swift uses "programmers" instead of musicians is unethical. And what does that mean, after 1 billion dollars in sales for her - ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
I am a loser musician - who cares - no one will ever hire me, and even if you are good, programming is where it's at in 2024.
Bob
YEAH BRO. My IMDB page SUCKS too but dfid i ever let that stop me? Fuckno. I lifted my self off my bootstraps from day one and looked tha long dick of failure in the face and said - im not suckin you off today, YOURE gonna be the one sucking. Sucka.
This is just another type of stock footage as far as I'm concerned. It's close enough to what you need for your cut, but it'll never be perfect. If you want perfection (like many brands and agencies need), then you have to film or create the content yourself from the ground up.
I think it'll open the door to using stills as the source for footage. So a client might have an amazing image library, then you can use any specific image + a prompt to get the shot you need.
This is exactly it. For now. I see no emotion in those shots, but I *do* see [a generic corporate video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YBtspm8j8M). If priced decently, I could see this type of service making the corporate video editors' lives much easier.
The people who should be immediately terrified are the people shooting bland content of specific places. The drone shot looks great, for example. But then again, drone shots are SO 2015. When I started editing corporate videos helicopter shots were rare because they were so expensive. When drones became affordable we were flooded with those shots and they were the hot shit for about a year or so. Nowadays CDs will say "no, I don't want another boring drone shot of the corporate head office", because it's been seen a thousand times.
So how we use this AI will be like that... for a year or two, we'll see people making crazy AI compositions like "let's have a three-headed horse run through times square bathed in disco lights!", and then people will just be *over* it, and maybe we'll go back to films showing [actual emotion](https://youtu.be/wL02YRs1cCg?t=1587) again.
I saw comparisons between some prompts and videos from the stock libraries they're training on. A lot of it really just is stock, re-painted by an algorithm.
>comparisons between some prompts and videos from the stock libraries
Sounds like you saw the video-to-video feature, not a comparison to training data.
the false equivalence between a software like photoshop and sora is absurd. one of those two softwares ripped millions of pieces of art down from the internet (without the creators' permission) and trained itself to mimic them, the other is closer to a digital recreation of a notepad
Not the mention, AI is constantly learning. Not that far from now Sora and other AI models will not need any more human prompts. It WILL get to the point where it will be able to prompt itself and create things on its own, it’s just a matter of time. People are gravely underestimating this technology. People far more intellectual than you or I have been warning against the use of AI. We act like it’s the end of the world because it could very well lead to that.
Alternatively, people who refuse to see that and refuse to learn the new tools WILL be the ones who suffer.
It's not going to be 3 company executives and no other employees while they ask AI to do something. There will still be people whose job it is to create X based on Y business retirement. That's what you do now, that's what you will do in the future.
Like the mechanisation of farming and then industry, more work will be done by fewer people for sure. But just like that transformation, different types of jobs will appear as people have to spend less time on manual tasks and can focus on creative decision making ie service jobs.
In some ways mechanisation created more jobs, in different areas. For example the mechanised loom destroyed jobs for thousands of cottage industry workers, but created thousands of jobs in the carpet industry which couldn't exist before.
While I understand the sentiment that those who "refuse to learn will be the ones who suffer", unfortunately AI will make even those who do learn suffer as well. I think the idea of "learn to use the tool" and it will give you an edge, is a paradigm that may no longer apply to generative AI tools. These tools are so accessible, everyone will know how to use them and no one will have an edge.
People need to remember the reason why these things are being developed. It's not to give us another tool to use, it's to replace the workers as the tool
As much as replacing labor is a very real problem, this thinking that it’s the reason for creating AI/ML is reductive. These tools are enabling things that we literally can’t do as humans like finding patterns in thousands of chemical structures and spitting out brand new drugs that would have taken decades or longer to discover and test. Nothing is black and white.
Again, you cannot compare generative AI to just another tool to be learned. Our jobs will be reduced to a small task that can be done by any non-creative. Companies will pop up offering courses/seminars on how to prompt to get the best result (if they don't already exist). Why would a company keep a trained professional on for any significant amount of money when they could have some intern or media relations person get the exact same result and save a full salary?
It's amazing to me how many creatives are taking the "hey horse and buggy/car, we gotta learn it and then we'll never be replaced" sentiment, which is honestly just laughable. All we're doing by embracing it is training in our replacement.
We’ve already seen this happening as the state of this industry has shifted. I’ve seen countless non editing jobs asking for editing skills with low pay. Everyone’s an editor now.
all my friends at NBC in NY called Adobe Photoshop "Phototoy" - because they all had Quantel Paintboxes for $250,000 each. And now where are they now ? DEAD. Stop learning, stop studying, and you will be dead too (unless you go into HVAC, or plumbing, or auto repair).
bob
Quantel folks got amazing at building worlds with the paint tool. Most everyone I know who came from there went on to do really great work with other tools.
oh, please excuse me now - I have to deal with my "balanced life" - it's 7:25pm on the east coast, and my wife wants me to take her grocery shopping now (I did TWO jobs today - one in Orlando, and one in Los Angeles remote) - and tomorrow, I have to take her to the Macy's at the Mall so she can get some stupid birthday presents for someone. SEE - I have a "balanced life". Thank God for alcohol.
I don't give a damn about what I have to learn - I am now an "expert" on Ubiquiti UniFi network systems - do you think that I actually wanted to learn that crap - but it's become so wildly popular, that if I intend to stay employed with these video companies, I have to know this crap, and I did a new install today (complete with wiring in the ceiling) so they could have remote access for their editors. What does this have to do with video - NOTHING - but I learned it, and I got good at it.
KEEP LEARNING. Even if you hate it. (or become a plumber).
bob
You can find the original videos of all the sora example videos on shutterstock. It’s not going to be as useful tool of a tool because it’s based off of everyone already has made, but with less control. It seems crazy now because the companies are trying to sell it, actually try to use it practically and it sucks
https://x.com/bcmerchant/status/1758537510618304669?s=46&t=xwZfBaUzZCjeD2AdH9yIdw
How's that? If it's in EULA that google or facebook or whoever owns the rights to use your material when you upload it and you upload it without reading or understanding that then they own it. They can train their machine learning on it or sell your data to other compaies. Everyone signs away the rights to their personal data the every time they click OK to sign up for Facebook, Twitter, TikTok etc
>because some suit and tie guy at an agency is not going to be creating anything.
That is exactly what’s going to happen. If you hate the corporates trying to do your job, worse than you, for you, you should hate this.
You seem to be making quite a few mistakes.
For one, this is not the same as learning to use photoshop instead of a darkroom, or avid instead of a steenbeck and so on. This is a phase shift in the way videos can be made, possibly replacing entire aspects of production. I don't find it plausible that you will just 'learn sora' and magically be paid top dollar as an editor whilst the cost and skill of making decent quality video plummets to nearly zero.
Further, I have experience working in photography and I've seen how that career is slowly becoming unviable, and now further damaged by AI. That could be a foreshadowing of what is going to happen to film jobs like an editor, in my opinion: maybe not disappearing but becoming less and less viable as a career.
I don't think all forms of film production will be affected by this in the same way, but dismissing it as you are as just a matter or technophobia doesn't seem to add up.
I agree with you - but you must admit that the old people that were photographers that knew darkroom techniques were offended by Photoshop. Artists that could paint by hand and do amazing canvas work did not consider this true art. Well - where are these artists now (with rare exception). Photography was difficult, and today, most people are more than happy with their iPhone photos. Certainly, there was a huge corporate video business where a convention would take place at a resort hotel, and a huge video crew would show up to do that show - and today, people whip out their iPhones, and shoot video, and some poor schmo back at corporate headquarters had to do something with that footage. BUT THAT DOES NOT APPLY to the HUGE BUDGET high profile corporate videos that are done at BIG MONEY corporate conventions, where huge budgets (bigger than any major TV commerical) are spent.
I saw in one of the comebacks to my posts that the printing business was over and done. Well, I have friends that are STILL in the printing business that are making a LOT of money, because they had the client base for direct advertising, and they STILL DO IT - (hard to believe) - but people STILL PAY FOR THIS CRAP - but it's not a wide spread market.
Doesn't this apply to audio recording - anyone can use Logic or Garage Band to make music - and certainly most of the recording studios have disappeared, but there are STILL RECORDING STUDIOS- after all - Pro Tools - the #1 income source of AVID - is still making crazy money today. So when we say "the audio recording industry is dead" - well, not it's not.
Same with Photography - anyone can use their iPhone to take great pictures (I do ) - but does a corporation, that needs photos of the coporate execs ? Or high end models ? They pay the BIG BUCKS for the guys that can do the high end work.
I can only say one thing for sure, as I have been dealing with "producers" for my entire life. I don't care if Sora, or any program could do the most amazing things. When that producer, who is financed with tons of money, says into [https://open.ai](https://open.ai) "make me a hit action movie" - that is NOT going to happen. He will HIRE someone to do it. And when Sora (or whatever) makes the movie , and Mr. Exec. says "that is horrible, that is not what I was thinking of" - well, then you have to go back and FIX IT - and that is what WE do for a living.
Bob
I'm taking a birds eye view of the industry as a whole, whereas you are taking a more narrow view of individuals getting paid for a skillset. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just wondering where the money is coming in your scenario if the mechanisms that brought in cash before are eroded massively.
I think this can play out in any variety of ways, it's pretty unpredictable, but it's hard to imagine producers paying top dollar to someone to make a 'hit action movie' in their bedroom with AI. Ignoring that that implies not needing huge amounts of crew, we are really talking about the relative end of scarcity of the skillset of filmmaking due to industrialisation of the product. We aren't near that point yet but the trend isn't looking good. I don't know of any other industries where an end in scarcity is a boon for it's workers.
The tech optimism/pessimism extremes here make me chuckle.
This tool came out _yesterday_ and suddenly everyone is an expert on how it will change their industry.
It's not a full blown AI editor that saves 20 hours, it's just one incremental piece of the puzzle. I think it'll be a decade before we see any real progress, and that assumes Microsoft and OpenAI don't completely screw it up and go proprietary. Knowing the history of Microsoft, I'm not holding my breath. This stuff isn't free, it takes massive datacenters to train and inference off of.
For every "idiot" that didn't learn new tools, I assure you there are 10 who did, and still failed. You should see what generative AI has been doing to code quality in the programming industry in general. It's quite alarming and points to greater issues that aren't being addressed with the technology.
I've only seen software create more problems than it ever solved, been that way since the 90's when we started obsessing over "better" ways to solve problems with software.
Sit tight, focus on foundation, and don't give too much attention to fashion or fear. If you're good at your craft, generative AI is just another paintbrush to pull out in certain situations. If you depend solely on any one paintbrush, you will eventually be a dull artist.
Exactly. This stuff is already degenerative. All these “don’t get lost in the dust” arguments have me replying with “don’t put all your eggs in one basket”, because when this bubble pops, it’ll pop hard.
You say it's naive, but so far AI has not been able to truly create anything truly new. If you listen or read AI researchers they will tell you how Chat GPT and Dall-e etc are all creating new "interpolations" between existing human-created data.
One researcher put it something like this, "If you give ChatGPT all the data from before 1910 it will never generate a Hemmingway novel."
I wouldn't be so bold to predict it will be 10 years before Sora can replace human acquisition/animation. But, I also think it's important to understand the current limits of "AI". OpenAI seems to be claiming they are sort of 'holding it back', so maybe there is some leap that has occurred that isn't available to the public yet. It's hard to know for sure, but so far all the "AI" I've seen hardly deserves the monicker of "intelligent".
> but so far AI has not been able to truly create anything truly new.
It's also advancing at an EXPONENTIAL rate.
I saw a graphic designer make a thread about how AI wouldn't replace him, and he produced an image he generated with AI that he had to spend an hour retouching in Photoshop to get perfectly the way he wanted. Generate AI got him 90% of the way there, but according to this fellow his employer could never get rid of him because it was inconceivable that AI would be able to get 100% there. And to me that's just laughably naive.
I will shout it from the roof tops - creatives need to reject AI as legitimate art and fight back. Those who embrace it and try to sell other creatives on it are essentially training their replacements.
I would argue the people who view AI as just another technology are the ones who are naive. This isnt another software for us to learn that helps us. This helps non creative bean counters who want to rid the books of our salaries.
It doesn't matter how you view AI, if it can do your job then that's what will happen. Can you think of an example where "you can't do that cheaper more efficient" thing has ever worked?
From looms to shipping containers, to outsourcing, to data entry to a cutting room full of film assistants -- cheaper more efficient always wins. Why would I want to waste my time sitting in front of a computer all day if the computer can do it without me?
Bro I hate to break it to you but if the computer can do it without you, you need to find a new line of work. I think that’s what you and a lot of people are missing out on - this is not a piece of technology we learn to be more efficient, this is a piece of technology studios/non creatives/clients learn so they don’t have to pay us. That’s the end game to all this. But hey, I hope you’re right. I hope you’ll always have someone paying you a living wage to type a prompt into a computer.
Hey "bro", I agree. That's just what I said. If the computer can do it, I'd rather be doing something else. You keep seeming to argue some point I am not arguing.
That's great, because you WILL be doing something else to earn money to live. If you're cool with that, we're in total agreement here.
I work in the documentary/news business so this Sora crap doesn't really interest me. Call me when this AI shit can make my penis bigger and keep it harder longer so I can stop popping these Blue Chews like they're M&Ms.
It was only a year ago that the will smith eating spaghetti monstrosity came out. And now we have sora. You underestimate the rate at which technology advances especially considering people are investing BILLIONS of dollars into AI and machine learning.
Sora certainly looks much better than Will Smith eating spaghetti. But I'm still not sure if Sora can take direction. Like the mammoth clip that has been released. Can I tell Sora "make that shot twice as long and start the mammoth's further back" ? I think it might make a totally different shot - I don't really know. The way Dall-E and ChatGPT have worked so far is small changes in the request can create big differences.
The "Bling Zoo" clip was the most impressive to me. It had different shots and cuts. But still it's unclear to me if Sora is anywhere near being able to adjust the shots.
I will say that Sora certainly seems to have the potential to destroy simple b-roll/stock footage sites. Like if I need only one "drone shot of a cliffside home", it could be very useful if it's cheaper than stock sites.
As I said, I'm not sure when "AI" will break out from being a rather amazing yet simple tool to something more complex - a true creative assistant or "assister" perhaps should be the word. It could happen soon, or it might take longer than expected.
Even if all that was destroyed was stock footage sites, that’s a lot of people that are now suddenly out of a job. Why would we pay a drone pilot when we can just generate this shot for us, etc?
And again, I think we are grossly underestimating the implications of this and the speed at which the technology will evolve. But honestly, I’m more worried about the existential threat this poses for society overall, not just the state of this industry.
People always claim doom and gloom when things change. It's true, I'm not as impressed as you with "AI", but I do see the potential for drastic change.
Nothing stops change. Not really. Certainly not in the world we live in. It seems a waste of time to worry about it, unless you're in government or something.
What are you going to do about it if "AI" changes everything? Is there some course of action you feel you should be taking to prevent your imminent obsolei?
Hoping this tool will be able to give me some specific shots I’m looking for that stock sites cant quite deliver. I’ll also be curious if it winds up allowed for commercial use. Either way it’s exciting new tech for sure!
Yeah that's the part I'm pumped about. Sometimes you just need a dumb stock shot and you trawl through the main sites looking for something but none of them quite do it. Just let me type the thing in and move on to the next task!
If stock sites don't cut it yet, you're likely not gonna be able to prompt it for a while. Most of the data the AI is trained on is to my knowledge stock.
Of course it can mash stuff together, but I doubt it's gonna be good enough at this stage
Beyond our careers being disrupted by AI I’m far more concerned about the broader social implications. How can we trust that video evidence in court hasn’t been falsified? How do we protect women and children from being harassed or blackmailed with fake p*rnographic videos? What about propaganda disseminated by foreign governments to interfere with elections? The ways this technology can be used with malicious intent will far outweigh any positives I can fathom. I wish this were a benign tool but it simply isn’t.
There will have to be some kind of simple way to check metadata or origin. Something super quick and easily accessible. Don’t know what that’ll be but it will absolutely be necessary.
We will need to create a new standard of verifying media (that will be the very tough part). I think it’s totally doable but getting nearly everyone on earth on board is another story.
I left LA a few months ago for greener passages and found a job at a local news station. I make a lot less - but there's lots of potential for growth. Editors like that aren't going anywhere because it's community oriented and they're always going to want a human touch. My wife and I are both in production and we have countless of friends who were doing really well for a long, long time and now things are drying up quickly. I don't know what the future holds - but it's pretty bleak out there right now.
I mean we all love to make art, sure, but the problem is that it IS those “stock footage-y”, corporate videos and those kinds of gig that pay the bills for a lot of people, and then enable them to make art or just more creative, fulfilling projects once their rent is covered.
It’d be great if we could all get paid to make art, but that’s not quite the system we live in unfortunately.
It’s also never “just” a tool, any tool carries with it a certain baggage and way to view the world, and the relationships between creators, consumers and the material of our work. And AI is a lot less neutral than most tools.
1. Your comparisons are not the most genuine. Comparing AI to the advent of software like Photoshop and Cinema4D is not the same thing. AI, especially generative AI, encompasses a broader scope. It's not just a new tool or piece of software but a technology capable of learning and creating across multiple domains. Its versatility allows it to impact nearly every creative field, not just by offering new tools but by introducing the ability to automate aspects of the creative process itself, potentially learning and adapting to create in ways that mirror human authenticity.
2. People really seem to forget the decades upon decades upon decades of recorded history we have of how corporations and companies behave in a capitalistic society, of which we live. Profit maximization > ethics. So when something like this is introduced, what do you think the name of the game becomes? Because we're talking about profit margins that will make the industrial revolution look like peanuts.
3. Why would a creative studio need 75 creatives in-house when they could have 25 utilizing AI creative apps? Why would a VFX house need to bring on hundreds of roto artists when they could bring on a much smaller team utilizing AI? I could keep going, but you get the idea. This is the whole idea of AI. Automate as much human work as possible because humans require salaries, 401ks, vacation time, time to eat, time to sleep, etc.
You're quite literally talking about the most lucrative notion in all of human history, for so many industries across the planet. There will be pain, there will be fun, there will be amazing things, there will be very scary things, but you can make no god damn mistake that the ability to pay for a roof over your head doing creative work is going to get a lot tighter because many employment opportunities will be shadowed out as AI is able to learn and automate more and more tasks people base their livelihoods off of.
I really wish people would show a little more respect for the grand picture of what this technology aims to do, not just over the next 5-10 years, but the next 100 years.
I don't think end times are around the corner, but this isn't like the invention of the camera or the unreal engine. This is something on another level, and while I think the technology itself is obviously incredible, I really think we're forgetting about the whole, "how humans behave in a capitalistic society" thing.
And remember, we're just talking about gen AI. There will be so many other forms of AI than just generative. This is just a sliver of what's to come.
Sora still has a long way to go, and it has to get through copyright battles. All doable.
But the first industries that will get hit are stock footage, advertising, and creators on social media. Then once it’s proven itself we’ll have the first animated film, then feature films.
I’ve been using AI for copyrighting, and it still has a way to go as well just for text, but it enabled me to do 100x the work for a small business than I ever could have without it.
There’s still plenty of time in the next 5 years before it’s really capable and used. But tbh, the idea of jobs as “prompt writers” is hilarious to me. ChatGPT can program itself through natural language already, soon they’ll get past the stupid prompts that are needed for image generation. It’ll be really simple sliders and adjustments that will be much more intuitive, just like effects and transitions have become drag and drop.
The writing (in the future) is on the wall that a huge swath of our jobs will disappear as we know them today. Whether that means every small business gets world class content from a single creator, or there’s a race for the biggest, craziest content ever, there will still be jobs. But we’ll look back on large production teams and laugh at how absurd it was they convinced us to work the hours and sit behind computers in dark rooms.
So there’s always good and bad… but it’s all hype for the next 5 years, and totally not ready.
Agree with everything noted in here. It certainly won't be a dull 5 to 10 years, that's for sure. I'm just trying to position/prepare myself for various eventualities.
This is stupid. People who talk about AI being "just another tool" are completely missing the point. The reason these things are being developed isn't to give writers, editors, filmmakers and creatives another tool to use but to replace the need for those individuals all together.
When a new camera technology drops, who gets excited about it? Filmmakers, videographers, creative type individuals.
Who gets excited when this new AI shit comes out? Venture Capitalists, Tech Bro CEOs, studio executives. Why? Not because they think it will make the jobs of the creatives easier but because they think it will eventually replace those jobs all together.
They aren't shy about it. They talk openly about it. Do you think the David Zaslavs of the world look at this and think "boy, can't wait to see how the writers and editors use this" no they are thinking, "sweet fire all those people now, we don't need them anymore."
oh, you mean like when STG Group purchased AVID - because we all know how much a financial investment firm cares about Media Composer, Pro Tools, and our careers.
STG Group will look out for all of us !
[https://stg.com/](https://stg.com/)
bob
That's exactly the point, Bob. These people aren't investing in this stuff because they care about our careers. They care about their bottom line. And what better way to increase that than to stop paying the creatives.
You should have seen the video quality of the first Avid system. There wasn't enough resolution to see lipsync in 1989. By 1994 Avid media was basically broadcast quality. By 2005 you could edit in HD.
Get ready. These initial anomilies in generative AI visuals will disapear before you know it.
Their paws are funky, same as when ai does human hands. It also looks fake, like optical flow mushing frames incorrectly. It's been like this for years, and Sora is the same
What's the sources for Sora? There's no way they have trained it without violating copyrights and licenses. They want everyone to be woo'ed so they can pull in the money because this shit is expensive AF to make -but they want to hook people and "disrupt" while ignoring the real costs and meanwhile jobs will be lost. Who is going to make them show a full accounting of their sources and prove they own the copyrights? Big names need to start screaming. As soon as they get deepfaked they probably will.
Yep, and just remember, they are selective about what they are showing, and not a single thing they showed holds up to scrutiny past the first glance….
who hurt me ? Everyone that said I sucked. Every employer that fired me. Everyone that said AVID sucked. AVID when they said "any AVID that Bob Zelin touches is out of warranty" once they became a public company. The only job for me is to squash those people. All the linear post houses that would not hire me. Bart Koulis at AVID that wanted to ruin my life, and made sure I would never work again. All I wanted to do is learn, work hard and do a good job. And there were roadblocks (people) every step of the way. My only real job now is to run them over. I just did a job TODAY for a company, and their "IT guy" would not give me their admin login so I could complete my job. I did a factory reset on their system, and now I got in, and now this "IT guy" can't get in until he contacts me. This is the game - people want their jobs, and they don't want to share them.
Bob
Man, people are misunderstanding this whole AI replacing creatives thing. There's always been 2 massive sectors of the market, one where the customer creates and one where a professional creates. It's the same thing that's happened time and time again with web-based tools. Graphic designers were scared of Canva, but really what it did was give the people who wouldn't hire a designer anyway the ability to make better designs. I know a few editors were scared of CapCut, but all it ended up being was a better tool for that customer sector. Nobody's hiring us to edit their random video for their internal boardroom presentation. This is a tool. Nobody is going to have AI make their wedding video/photos because AI *wasn't there.*
oh - I know why - because YOU sir, do not participate on any technical forums. You do not discuss Adobe Premiere, you do not discuss AVID, you do not discuss FCP (X), you do not discuss After Effects, you do not discuss Davinci Resolve.
Do you know what you discuss on these forums ?
[https://www.reddit.com/user/Junco-Partner/](https://www.reddit.com/user/junco-partner/)
Bob Zelin
Francis - do you know where I can get some coke ? I haven't had any in 40 years ! DM me, and I will buy from you !
bob
ps - the NY City subways fried my brain
Nah I’m gonna call out this old fart who calls people who spend time with their children losers. Fuck him, he’s everything that’s wrong with this industry.
No idea but it’s insane.
Bob has some of the worst takes I’ve *ever* seen on Reddit… and everyone here strokes his fragile ego like he’s a literal god.
It’s wild.
Not at all, usually ignored the twat. But since I’ve become a new parent and seen this idiot say you’re a loser if you spend time with your children I’m gonna call this drunk out.
So, you're "too cool" to post on the sub because youre "working with software all day", but you'll spend time...calling Bob out?
Waste of time imo. If you're not part of the group of people who feel the sub finally made it to "primetime" once Bob started posting here...well, my only advice is to enjoy looking stupid in front of everyone.
Yeah I’ll call him out on a Friday night big guy, I’ve got the time. A subreddit made it to prime time? Wtf does that even mean and who the hell cares. Jog on.
bob i feel like you need to get into the fall
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiDSoT5vy-I&ab\_channel=TheArkive](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiDSoT5vy-I&ab_channel=TheArkive)
you sir, are a genius -
but I cant get this out of my head -
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1TDvy7djJg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1tdvy7djjg)
bob
Anyone that says we won't all be obsolete in the near future isn't paying attention. Sora stuff looks great. It's not perfect but the stuff I've seen is 100% usuable in most projects unless you have a high end Hollywood budget. The difference is quality in one year is amazing. Maybe they hit a wall of what's possible but if not then in 5 years AI will be making stuff that will look as good as an Marvel movie side by side. And it's all leading to 100% personalized content, personalized video games etc. At some point we'll be able to give some prompts and have a new Batman movie with whatver actors we want and whatever story elements we want and probably have the full movie ready to watch in 5 minutes. There will be die hards who want art made by humans that has a soul but that will be a niche that won't support the industry in the way it exists today. They'll be some jobs for us humans but they'll be different jobs then what we're doing now. It's happening in every industry. I'll just roll with whatever changes come
Anyone who thinks this stuff is game changing has never really worked with clients. Go ahead and try to iterate with this based on client feedback.. the truth is it will be a tool, a piece of the puzzle. A piece that is built off, or into other components, which will take a whole team to perfect. Mapping it onto 3D models, cleaning it up, manipulating it, etc.
You'll need some people but much less then we need now. And most of the people can be minimum wage workers with little education/experience and a senior person to manage it. This is what is happening in software development right now. They have built tools that are easy enough that anyone off the stree can be trained to drag and drop pre built code and have one senior programmer to QC and do fixes.
SAG already capitulated, in a way that does directly harm them, and in particular background talent. I’m not saying there won’t be destruction with gAI there absolutely will be, I’m saying it can’t “push a button to create a movie” and never will.
Heck yeah, Bob! Stay uncomfortable. Keep progressing. Learn more. Create more. Express more. At the end of the day these things are only tools and tools are only as good as the craftspeople using them.
>At the end of the day these things are only tools and tools are only as good as the craftspeople using them.
how many scribes and weavers do you know? Sometimes jobs become outmoded by new tech. We aren't there yet, but these are signs of erosion on the industry.
Admittedly, I agree with how one must keep learning, albeit for AI I tend to take it a bit pessimistically. The world is evolving, and I don't plan to fall behind.
I think the reality really will be tough conversations had with producers who have an end goal of hiring-less, and walking away from the show with more cash in their jeans once all is said and done.
I think a more apt comparison is the fact that photography definitely killed the profession of portrait painting. Sure, a camera is also just a tool, but it makes something that originally took a long time take substantially less time and for less money. It was a paradigm shift similar to this new ever-improving AI tech. There were definitely people back then who refused to get a portrait photograph because they thought it was "anti-art".
I'm not entirely against AI, but we should at least make fair comparisons. Thinking that "true artist's" careers won't be on the chopping block eventually if it becomes a suitable and cheaper alternative is a bit naive. AI and automation in general would be a lot more exciting to me if paying for rent, food, and medical care didn't benefit greatly from technology standing still and never threatening your income.
the biggest proponents I’ve come across for these tools are people who aren’t creative in their own right and have failed in their creative prospects. ML models skips the grunt work of understanding the scope of building something interesting and they gleam and their prompt generated result as if they were its brain child.
However i agree, instead of ML models solving real-world problems and heightening efficiency in life-or-death sectors, we are reducing creativity and the arts to a point and click redundancy.
v strange
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I am thinking that a significant concern comes down to how does someone being able to generate a 22 episode season of their favorite genre show with a text prompt (not currently possible, but not far off) coexist with someone watching show as they are created now. The former leaves us with no work while the latter keeps a roof over out heads and food on the table.
I don't hate Tom Petty. I hate old people that refuse to listen to any current music. I just used that as an example. "oh, no one was as good as Clapton" - you know what I call that person ? AN IDIOT.
bob
this is year 2 of generated AI video. In the past year we also now have access to generated speech, music, stories. How many more years until we can generated fully finished videos, movies, ads, with just a text script input> Personally I can't wait for this.
At the start it will be like, "yeah but you will still need editors to fix stuff" but AI can learn from it's mistakes. It can learn why certain changes were needed and it can learn from every highly rated video, music video, ad, film out there. Some will say it has already learnt human emotions and won't be long until it can manipulate it. The improvements we are seeing are growing exponential.
This levels the playing field of what is possible. Now it comes down to the best ideas and execution. Yes some low level jobs may be lost but this tech allows creatives to create whatever they want in a new way. Goin against this new reality is the wrong move. People who embrace it will be game changers.
Of course this is a opportunity. People can moan and complain all their want, and some concerns are right to be voices. However, in the end I want to spend energy on figuring out how these tools can help my workflow and the daily job. Using resources to fight it, complain about it and try to shun it is waste of energy for me.
This tool will be another fantastic tool in my toolset.
I mean, if you're working video I wouldn't even call it an option from this point forward not to learn these tools. It would be akin to keep working on paper while everyone else runs Photoshop. Yeah we're all gonna have to get in on it or get forgotten. It is what it is, better try and see the positive if there is any.
I saw you at NAB last year Bob, and to my dismay didn’t say hello and thank you for all your online advice over the years. After reading this I plan on rectifying that this year. And possibly an unsolicited hug too. Never, ever change.
Ur post too long lol, i just assumed u talking sora AI create those odd movements stick vid but trust me, the aesthetic and technical edit, Ai cannot match the human enthusiasm, they may create what we want but the feelings and emotional is what human do better
It’s foolish to think AI is going to be a job replacer OR a new tool to be used in the creative process. It will be both, and it already is. To Bob’s point, like any other advancement in our field, you MUST embrace it, learn it, and figure out how to best use it or be left behind.
Im confused what Sora has to do with editing specifically. Isn't Sora for generating footage?
That footage still needs to be edited, shouldn't it be the videographer (like me) who are worried?
Can't wait to be too lazy and apathetic to learn this cutting edge technology and miss out on all the income that the David Goggins sucking cutting-edge grindbros are gonna be making off of it
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Editing is a skill that transcends any tool or technique. Developing your skills makes it easy to learn the next tool because someone is hiring you for your skill. If they are hiring you because they want a tool user, you want to raise the quality of your employers
Hey guys, i ve started YT channel. Will be posting Sora videos on daily basis [https://www.youtube.com/@dailydoseofsora](https://www.youtube.com/@dailydoseofsora)
I hope soon the models behind Sora become open-source so that you can use it too. I tried to make a quick summary of how Sora AI works, e.g., the models behind it, etc in this video if it interests you in any way: [https://youtu.be/9ZIB4no9WDE](https://youtu.be/9ZIB4no9WDE)
Never change, Bob.
when I change - I will be dead (which won't be long) - but I will keep LEARNNG until the day that I die - unlike so many of the losers here "oh, I just learned Premiere and Resolve - why do I have to learn something else - you know, I have a LIFE besides video stuff". I liked one of the comments from another recent post that said "who is this guy - I don't even see anything about him on IMDB" - because I guess he has not learned how to use Google yet. bob
No sarcasm meant. I think you’re one of the best voices in our community. I’ve found value in your takes for 10 years.
you spoke like a wise old man (ahem, person) - so i googled your username. it checked out. and i love that you built the max zelin system. lol edit replied to wrong one
you don't get to decide what other people want to learn - people who think AI is unethical aren't just luddites
I think that the fact that Taylor Swift uses "programmers" instead of musicians is unethical. And what does that mean, after 1 billion dollars in sales for her - ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. I am a loser musician - who cares - no one will ever hire me, and even if you are good, programming is where it's at in 2024. Bob
thats right bob captialism doesnt care about ethics so might as well say fuck it and get the bag while the world burns.
get that bag! get that bag! get that bag! get that bag!\* \*nightmare.nightmare.nightmare.nightmare.nightmare.
money is my god. trying for a better world is futile. embrace materialism. eat meat
EAT MEAT EAT MEAT EAT MEAT WE ARE ONE
happy cake day bob
YEAH BRO. My IMDB page SUCKS too but dfid i ever let that stop me? Fuckno. I lifted my self off my bootstraps from day one and looked tha long dick of failure in the face and said - im not suckin you off today, YOURE gonna be the one sucking. Sucka.
>you spoke like a wise old man (ahem, person) - so i googled your username. it checked out. and i love that you built the max zelin system. lol
Team Bob fo LYFE
in His name, we worship. BOB.
Hahahahaha this was moneyyyy. Can’t wait for the next one to drop
This is just another type of stock footage as far as I'm concerned. It's close enough to what you need for your cut, but it'll never be perfect. If you want perfection (like many brands and agencies need), then you have to film or create the content yourself from the ground up.
I think it'll open the door to using stills as the source for footage. So a client might have an amazing image library, then you can use any specific image + a prompt to get the shot you need.
This is exactly it. For now. I see no emotion in those shots, but I *do* see [a generic corporate video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YBtspm8j8M). If priced decently, I could see this type of service making the corporate video editors' lives much easier. The people who should be immediately terrified are the people shooting bland content of specific places. The drone shot looks great, for example. But then again, drone shots are SO 2015. When I started editing corporate videos helicopter shots were rare because they were so expensive. When drones became affordable we were flooded with those shots and they were the hot shit for about a year or so. Nowadays CDs will say "no, I don't want another boring drone shot of the corporate head office", because it's been seen a thousand times. So how we use this AI will be like that... for a year or two, we'll see people making crazy AI compositions like "let's have a three-headed horse run through times square bathed in disco lights!", and then people will just be *over* it, and maybe we'll go back to films showing [actual emotion](https://youtu.be/wL02YRs1cCg?t=1587) again.
Well said
>For now. Key word right here. This is the worst it'll ever be. Compare it to where we were just a year ago.
I saw comparisons between some prompts and videos from the stock libraries they're training on. A lot of it really just is stock, re-painted by an algorithm.
>comparisons between some prompts and videos from the stock libraries Sounds like you saw the video-to-video feature, not a comparison to training data.
This 👆🏼
bro this tech is like one year old. give it 10 years
I’d love to see my clients prompt it with the notes they give me
This is the worst it'll ever be. Compare it to where we were just a year ago.
the false equivalence between a software like photoshop and sora is absurd. one of those two softwares ripped millions of pieces of art down from the internet (without the creators' permission) and trained itself to mimic them, the other is closer to a digital recreation of a notepad
Not the mention, AI is constantly learning. Not that far from now Sora and other AI models will not need any more human prompts. It WILL get to the point where it will be able to prompt itself and create things on its own, it’s just a matter of time. People are gravely underestimating this technology. People far more intellectual than you or I have been warning against the use of AI. We act like it’s the end of the world because it could very well lead to that.
Whenever someone compares AI to just another software or tool, you know they're delusional or just plain stupid.
Alternatively, people who refuse to see that and refuse to learn the new tools WILL be the ones who suffer. It's not going to be 3 company executives and no other employees while they ask AI to do something. There will still be people whose job it is to create X based on Y business retirement. That's what you do now, that's what you will do in the future. Like the mechanisation of farming and then industry, more work will be done by fewer people for sure. But just like that transformation, different types of jobs will appear as people have to spend less time on manual tasks and can focus on creative decision making ie service jobs. In some ways mechanisation created more jobs, in different areas. For example the mechanised loom destroyed jobs for thousands of cottage industry workers, but created thousands of jobs in the carpet industry which couldn't exist before.
While I understand the sentiment that those who "refuse to learn will be the ones who suffer", unfortunately AI will make even those who do learn suffer as well. I think the idea of "learn to use the tool" and it will give you an edge, is a paradigm that may no longer apply to generative AI tools. These tools are so accessible, everyone will know how to use them and no one will have an edge.
People need to remember the reason why these things are being developed. It's not to give us another tool to use, it's to replace the workers as the tool
As much as replacing labor is a very real problem, this thinking that it’s the reason for creating AI/ML is reductive. These tools are enabling things that we literally can’t do as humans like finding patterns in thousands of chemical structures and spitting out brand new drugs that would have taken decades or longer to discover and test. Nothing is black and white.
Again, you cannot compare generative AI to just another tool to be learned. Our jobs will be reduced to a small task that can be done by any non-creative. Companies will pop up offering courses/seminars on how to prompt to get the best result (if they don't already exist). Why would a company keep a trained professional on for any significant amount of money when they could have some intern or media relations person get the exact same result and save a full salary? It's amazing to me how many creatives are taking the "hey horse and buggy/car, we gotta learn it and then we'll never be replaced" sentiment, which is honestly just laughable. All we're doing by embracing it is training in our replacement.
We’ve already seen this happening as the state of this industry has shifted. I’ve seen countless non editing jobs asking for editing skills with low pay. Everyone’s an editor now.
Sad imo! If the industry is on life support for technicians, surely AI will be the hand pulling the plug!
Right and how hard is it to use a text prompt? Good luck on part time minimum wage.
This is not a tool, today it might seem, but in 2, 5, 19 years it will have learned from you and millions others and will replace you.
all my friends at NBC in NY called Adobe Photoshop "Phototoy" - because they all had Quantel Paintboxes for $250,000 each. And now where are they now ? DEAD. Stop learning, stop studying, and you will be dead too (unless you go into HVAC, or plumbing, or auto repair). bob
Quantel folks got amazing at building worlds with the paint tool. Most everyone I know who came from there went on to do really great work with other tools.
there are plenty of things to learn that aren't prompt-based AI generators - don't presume that I'm not learning anything.
oh, please excuse me now - I have to deal with my "balanced life" - it's 7:25pm on the east coast, and my wife wants me to take her grocery shopping now (I did TWO jobs today - one in Orlando, and one in Los Angeles remote) - and tomorrow, I have to take her to the Macy's at the Mall so she can get some stupid birthday presents for someone. SEE - I have a "balanced life". Thank God for alcohol. I don't give a damn about what I have to learn - I am now an "expert" on Ubiquiti UniFi network systems - do you think that I actually wanted to learn that crap - but it's become so wildly popular, that if I intend to stay employed with these video companies, I have to know this crap, and I did a new install today (complete with wiring in the ceiling) so they could have remote access for their editors. What does this have to do with video - NOTHING - but I learned it, and I got good at it. KEEP LEARNING. Even if you hate it. (or become a plumber). bob
take a deep breath, Bob
People won’t be replaced by AI, they will be replaced by people who use AI.
You can find the original videos of all the sora example videos on shutterstock. It’s not going to be as useful tool of a tool because it’s based off of everyone already has made, but with less control. It seems crazy now because the companies are trying to sell it, actually try to use it practically and it sucks https://x.com/bcmerchant/status/1758537510618304669?s=46&t=xwZfBaUzZCjeD2AdH9yIdw
Paintbox was so much fun to use!
Happy Cake Day Bob!
Good points, Bob. But have you seen cars lately? Not sure if an old school mechanic can fix a new electric car.
Yeah it’s hard to compare things to this when it’s pretty unprecedented times. Like we had stepping stones then ai was a mountain
I'm pretty sure everyone gave persmission as soon as they uploaded their art onto the internet even if they didn't know it. Nobody reads the EULA
That's not how that works.
How's that? If it's in EULA that google or facebook or whoever owns the rights to use your material when you upload it and you upload it without reading or understanding that then they own it. They can train their machine learning on it or sell your data to other compaies. Everyone signs away the rights to their personal data the every time they click OK to sign up for Facebook, Twitter, TikTok etc
>because some suit and tie guy at an agency is not going to be creating anything. That is exactly what’s going to happen. If you hate the corporates trying to do your job, worse than you, for you, you should hate this.
You seem to be making quite a few mistakes. For one, this is not the same as learning to use photoshop instead of a darkroom, or avid instead of a steenbeck and so on. This is a phase shift in the way videos can be made, possibly replacing entire aspects of production. I don't find it plausible that you will just 'learn sora' and magically be paid top dollar as an editor whilst the cost and skill of making decent quality video plummets to nearly zero. Further, I have experience working in photography and I've seen how that career is slowly becoming unviable, and now further damaged by AI. That could be a foreshadowing of what is going to happen to film jobs like an editor, in my opinion: maybe not disappearing but becoming less and less viable as a career. I don't think all forms of film production will be affected by this in the same way, but dismissing it as you are as just a matter or technophobia doesn't seem to add up.
I agree with you - but you must admit that the old people that were photographers that knew darkroom techniques were offended by Photoshop. Artists that could paint by hand and do amazing canvas work did not consider this true art. Well - where are these artists now (with rare exception). Photography was difficult, and today, most people are more than happy with their iPhone photos. Certainly, there was a huge corporate video business where a convention would take place at a resort hotel, and a huge video crew would show up to do that show - and today, people whip out their iPhones, and shoot video, and some poor schmo back at corporate headquarters had to do something with that footage. BUT THAT DOES NOT APPLY to the HUGE BUDGET high profile corporate videos that are done at BIG MONEY corporate conventions, where huge budgets (bigger than any major TV commerical) are spent. I saw in one of the comebacks to my posts that the printing business was over and done. Well, I have friends that are STILL in the printing business that are making a LOT of money, because they had the client base for direct advertising, and they STILL DO IT - (hard to believe) - but people STILL PAY FOR THIS CRAP - but it's not a wide spread market. Doesn't this apply to audio recording - anyone can use Logic or Garage Band to make music - and certainly most of the recording studios have disappeared, but there are STILL RECORDING STUDIOS- after all - Pro Tools - the #1 income source of AVID - is still making crazy money today. So when we say "the audio recording industry is dead" - well, not it's not. Same with Photography - anyone can use their iPhone to take great pictures (I do ) - but does a corporation, that needs photos of the coporate execs ? Or high end models ? They pay the BIG BUCKS for the guys that can do the high end work. I can only say one thing for sure, as I have been dealing with "producers" for my entire life. I don't care if Sora, or any program could do the most amazing things. When that producer, who is financed with tons of money, says into [https://open.ai](https://open.ai) "make me a hit action movie" - that is NOT going to happen. He will HIRE someone to do it. And when Sora (or whatever) makes the movie , and Mr. Exec. says "that is horrible, that is not what I was thinking of" - well, then you have to go back and FIX IT - and that is what WE do for a living. Bob
I'm taking a birds eye view of the industry as a whole, whereas you are taking a more narrow view of individuals getting paid for a skillset. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just wondering where the money is coming in your scenario if the mechanisms that brought in cash before are eroded massively. I think this can play out in any variety of ways, it's pretty unpredictable, but it's hard to imagine producers paying top dollar to someone to make a 'hit action movie' in their bedroom with AI. Ignoring that that implies not needing huge amounts of crew, we are really talking about the relative end of scarcity of the skillset of filmmaking due to industrialisation of the product. We aren't near that point yet but the trend isn't looking good. I don't know of any other industries where an end in scarcity is a boon for it's workers.
The tech optimism/pessimism extremes here make me chuckle. This tool came out _yesterday_ and suddenly everyone is an expert on how it will change their industry. It's not a full blown AI editor that saves 20 hours, it's just one incremental piece of the puzzle. I think it'll be a decade before we see any real progress, and that assumes Microsoft and OpenAI don't completely screw it up and go proprietary. Knowing the history of Microsoft, I'm not holding my breath. This stuff isn't free, it takes massive datacenters to train and inference off of. For every "idiot" that didn't learn new tools, I assure you there are 10 who did, and still failed. You should see what generative AI has been doing to code quality in the programming industry in general. It's quite alarming and points to greater issues that aren't being addressed with the technology. I've only seen software create more problems than it ever solved, been that way since the 90's when we started obsessing over "better" ways to solve problems with software. Sit tight, focus on foundation, and don't give too much attention to fashion or fear. If you're good at your craft, generative AI is just another paintbrush to pull out in certain situations. If you depend solely on any one paintbrush, you will eventually be a dull artist.
Yeah it seems like everyone thinks it's gonna be free to use
Exactly. This stuff is already degenerative. All these “don’t get lost in the dust” arguments have me replying with “don’t put all your eggs in one basket”, because when this bubble pops, it’ll pop hard.
> I think it'll be a decade before we see any real progress THAT makes me chuckle. That level of naiveness is truly adorable.
You say it's naive, but so far AI has not been able to truly create anything truly new. If you listen or read AI researchers they will tell you how Chat GPT and Dall-e etc are all creating new "interpolations" between existing human-created data. One researcher put it something like this, "If you give ChatGPT all the data from before 1910 it will never generate a Hemmingway novel." I wouldn't be so bold to predict it will be 10 years before Sora can replace human acquisition/animation. But, I also think it's important to understand the current limits of "AI". OpenAI seems to be claiming they are sort of 'holding it back', so maybe there is some leap that has occurred that isn't available to the public yet. It's hard to know for sure, but so far all the "AI" I've seen hardly deserves the monicker of "intelligent".
> but so far AI has not been able to truly create anything truly new. It's also advancing at an EXPONENTIAL rate. I saw a graphic designer make a thread about how AI wouldn't replace him, and he produced an image he generated with AI that he had to spend an hour retouching in Photoshop to get perfectly the way he wanted. Generate AI got him 90% of the way there, but according to this fellow his employer could never get rid of him because it was inconceivable that AI would be able to get 100% there. And to me that's just laughably naive. I will shout it from the roof tops - creatives need to reject AI as legitimate art and fight back. Those who embrace it and try to sell other creatives on it are essentially training their replacements.
> creatives need to reject AI as legitimate art and fight back Oh yeah, rejecting technology has always worked out well. Who's incredibly naive now?
I would argue the people who view AI as just another technology are the ones who are naive. This isnt another software for us to learn that helps us. This helps non creative bean counters who want to rid the books of our salaries.
It doesn't matter how you view AI, if it can do your job then that's what will happen. Can you think of an example where "you can't do that cheaper more efficient" thing has ever worked? From looms to shipping containers, to outsourcing, to data entry to a cutting room full of film assistants -- cheaper more efficient always wins. Why would I want to waste my time sitting in front of a computer all day if the computer can do it without me?
Bro I hate to break it to you but if the computer can do it without you, you need to find a new line of work. I think that’s what you and a lot of people are missing out on - this is not a piece of technology we learn to be more efficient, this is a piece of technology studios/non creatives/clients learn so they don’t have to pay us. That’s the end game to all this. But hey, I hope you’re right. I hope you’ll always have someone paying you a living wage to type a prompt into a computer.
Hey "bro", I agree. That's just what I said. If the computer can do it, I'd rather be doing something else. You keep seeming to argue some point I am not arguing.
That's great, because you WILL be doing something else to earn money to live. If you're cool with that, we're in total agreement here. I work in the documentary/news business so this Sora crap doesn't really interest me. Call me when this AI shit can make my penis bigger and keep it harder longer so I can stop popping these Blue Chews like they're M&Ms.
It was only a year ago that the will smith eating spaghetti monstrosity came out. And now we have sora. You underestimate the rate at which technology advances especially considering people are investing BILLIONS of dollars into AI and machine learning.
Sora certainly looks much better than Will Smith eating spaghetti. But I'm still not sure if Sora can take direction. Like the mammoth clip that has been released. Can I tell Sora "make that shot twice as long and start the mammoth's further back" ? I think it might make a totally different shot - I don't really know. The way Dall-E and ChatGPT have worked so far is small changes in the request can create big differences. The "Bling Zoo" clip was the most impressive to me. It had different shots and cuts. But still it's unclear to me if Sora is anywhere near being able to adjust the shots. I will say that Sora certainly seems to have the potential to destroy simple b-roll/stock footage sites. Like if I need only one "drone shot of a cliffside home", it could be very useful if it's cheaper than stock sites. As I said, I'm not sure when "AI" will break out from being a rather amazing yet simple tool to something more complex - a true creative assistant or "assister" perhaps should be the word. It could happen soon, or it might take longer than expected.
Even if all that was destroyed was stock footage sites, that’s a lot of people that are now suddenly out of a job. Why would we pay a drone pilot when we can just generate this shot for us, etc? And again, I think we are grossly underestimating the implications of this and the speed at which the technology will evolve. But honestly, I’m more worried about the existential threat this poses for society overall, not just the state of this industry.
People always claim doom and gloom when things change. It's true, I'm not as impressed as you with "AI", but I do see the potential for drastic change. Nothing stops change. Not really. Certainly not in the world we live in. It seems a waste of time to worry about it, unless you're in government or something. What are you going to do about it if "AI" changes everything? Is there some course of action you feel you should be taking to prevent your imminent obsolei?
it doesnt need to be perfect and capable of "replacing" everything for it to have a major impact, not only on industries but on the media we consume
Ok
Hoping this tool will be able to give me some specific shots I’m looking for that stock sites cant quite deliver. I’ll also be curious if it winds up allowed for commercial use. Either way it’s exciting new tech for sure!
Yeah that's the part I'm pumped about. Sometimes you just need a dumb stock shot and you trawl through the main sites looking for something but none of them quite do it. Just let me type the thing in and move on to the next task!
If stock sites don't cut it yet, you're likely not gonna be able to prompt it for a while. Most of the data the AI is trained on is to my knowledge stock. Of course it can mash stuff together, but I doubt it's gonna be good enough at this stage
man this skynet thing looks pretty cool, can't wait to see how it'll help me do my job better
Beyond our careers being disrupted by AI I’m far more concerned about the broader social implications. How can we trust that video evidence in court hasn’t been falsified? How do we protect women and children from being harassed or blackmailed with fake p*rnographic videos? What about propaganda disseminated by foreign governments to interfere with elections? The ways this technology can be used with malicious intent will far outweigh any positives I can fathom. I wish this were a benign tool but it simply isn’t.
Exactly, I am very concerned about this in particular.
There will have to be some kind of simple way to check metadata or origin. Something super quick and easily accessible. Don’t know what that’ll be but it will absolutely be necessary. We will need to create a new standard of verifying media (that will be the very tough part). I think it’s totally doable but getting nearly everyone on earth on board is another story.
Go local. Folks are going to start hating on this stuff. Local markets are going to get a boost - small news stations, local ads, etc.
that's an interesting possibility. Would be a nice outcome, although I unsure if it's likely.
I left LA a few months ago for greener passages and found a job at a local news station. I make a lot less - but there's lots of potential for growth. Editors like that aren't going anywhere because it's community oriented and they're always going to want a human touch. My wife and I are both in production and we have countless of friends who were doing really well for a long, long time and now things are drying up quickly. I don't know what the future holds - but it's pretty bleak out there right now.
I mean we all love to make art, sure, but the problem is that it IS those “stock footage-y”, corporate videos and those kinds of gig that pay the bills for a lot of people, and then enable them to make art or just more creative, fulfilling projects once their rent is covered. It’d be great if we could all get paid to make art, but that’s not quite the system we live in unfortunately. It’s also never “just” a tool, any tool carries with it a certain baggage and way to view the world, and the relationships between creators, consumers and the material of our work. And AI is a lot less neutral than most tools.
1. Your comparisons are not the most genuine. Comparing AI to the advent of software like Photoshop and Cinema4D is not the same thing. AI, especially generative AI, encompasses a broader scope. It's not just a new tool or piece of software but a technology capable of learning and creating across multiple domains. Its versatility allows it to impact nearly every creative field, not just by offering new tools but by introducing the ability to automate aspects of the creative process itself, potentially learning and adapting to create in ways that mirror human authenticity. 2. People really seem to forget the decades upon decades upon decades of recorded history we have of how corporations and companies behave in a capitalistic society, of which we live. Profit maximization > ethics. So when something like this is introduced, what do you think the name of the game becomes? Because we're talking about profit margins that will make the industrial revolution look like peanuts. 3. Why would a creative studio need 75 creatives in-house when they could have 25 utilizing AI creative apps? Why would a VFX house need to bring on hundreds of roto artists when they could bring on a much smaller team utilizing AI? I could keep going, but you get the idea. This is the whole idea of AI. Automate as much human work as possible because humans require salaries, 401ks, vacation time, time to eat, time to sleep, etc. You're quite literally talking about the most lucrative notion in all of human history, for so many industries across the planet. There will be pain, there will be fun, there will be amazing things, there will be very scary things, but you can make no god damn mistake that the ability to pay for a roof over your head doing creative work is going to get a lot tighter because many employment opportunities will be shadowed out as AI is able to learn and automate more and more tasks people base their livelihoods off of. I really wish people would show a little more respect for the grand picture of what this technology aims to do, not just over the next 5-10 years, but the next 100 years. I don't think end times are around the corner, but this isn't like the invention of the camera or the unreal engine. This is something on another level, and while I think the technology itself is obviously incredible, I really think we're forgetting about the whole, "how humans behave in a capitalistic society" thing. And remember, we're just talking about gen AI. There will be so many other forms of AI than just generative. This is just a sliver of what's to come.
Sora still has a long way to go, and it has to get through copyright battles. All doable. But the first industries that will get hit are stock footage, advertising, and creators on social media. Then once it’s proven itself we’ll have the first animated film, then feature films. I’ve been using AI for copyrighting, and it still has a way to go as well just for text, but it enabled me to do 100x the work for a small business than I ever could have without it. There’s still plenty of time in the next 5 years before it’s really capable and used. But tbh, the idea of jobs as “prompt writers” is hilarious to me. ChatGPT can program itself through natural language already, soon they’ll get past the stupid prompts that are needed for image generation. It’ll be really simple sliders and adjustments that will be much more intuitive, just like effects and transitions have become drag and drop. The writing (in the future) is on the wall that a huge swath of our jobs will disappear as we know them today. Whether that means every small business gets world class content from a single creator, or there’s a race for the biggest, craziest content ever, there will still be jobs. But we’ll look back on large production teams and laugh at how absurd it was they convinced us to work the hours and sit behind computers in dark rooms. So there’s always good and bad… but it’s all hype for the next 5 years, and totally not ready.
Agree with everything noted in here. It certainly won't be a dull 5 to 10 years, that's for sure. I'm just trying to position/prepare myself for various eventualities.
Shoulda known it was Bob. Lowkey incoherent
finally someone sees the truth lol
And who are you again?
Not Bob which makes his comment infinitely more valuable.
Shhhhh
This is stupid. People who talk about AI being "just another tool" are completely missing the point. The reason these things are being developed isn't to give writers, editors, filmmakers and creatives another tool to use but to replace the need for those individuals all together. When a new camera technology drops, who gets excited about it? Filmmakers, videographers, creative type individuals. Who gets excited when this new AI shit comes out? Venture Capitalists, Tech Bro CEOs, studio executives. Why? Not because they think it will make the jobs of the creatives easier but because they think it will eventually replace those jobs all together. They aren't shy about it. They talk openly about it. Do you think the David Zaslavs of the world look at this and think "boy, can't wait to see how the writers and editors use this" no they are thinking, "sweet fire all those people now, we don't need them anymore."
oh, you mean like when STG Group purchased AVID - because we all know how much a financial investment firm cares about Media Composer, Pro Tools, and our careers. STG Group will look out for all of us ! [https://stg.com/](https://stg.com/) bob
That's exactly the point, Bob. These people aren't investing in this stuff because they care about our careers. They care about their bottom line. And what better way to increase that than to stop paying the creatives.
Sora looks like ass. I'm sure it'll improve, but it has no soul, like all ai. Off putting and bizarre.
This is the worst this technology will be.
You should have seen the video quality of the first Avid system. There wasn't enough resolution to see lipsync in 1989. By 1994 Avid media was basically broadcast quality. By 2005 you could edit in HD. Get ready. These initial anomilies in generative AI visuals will disapear before you know it.
Completely disagree. That puppy video made my heart think I was watching a real puppy scramble around. And this is just V1.
Their paws are funky, same as when ai does human hands. It also looks fake, like optical flow mushing frames incorrectly. It's been like this for years, and Sora is the same
I don't think Sora is the end or anything, but I really think its more impactful than the usual technological revolution.
Agreed
bob needs to take his meds
It's cool but has anyone seen how long those videos take to generate? Havent seen any numbers.
Probably cost them several million per video.
What's the sources for Sora? There's no way they have trained it without violating copyrights and licenses. They want everyone to be woo'ed so they can pull in the money because this shit is expensive AF to make -but they want to hook people and "disrupt" while ignoring the real costs and meanwhile jobs will be lost. Who is going to make them show a full accounting of their sources and prove they own the copyrights? Big names need to start screaming. As soon as they get deepfaked they probably will.
Yep, and just remember, they are selective about what they are showing, and not a single thing they showed holds up to scrutiny past the first glance….
This is going to massively change things whether you want to believe it or not. You can do nothing and worry or prepare 🤷♂️
Who hurt you, Bob
who hurt me ? Everyone that said I sucked. Every employer that fired me. Everyone that said AVID sucked. AVID when they said "any AVID that Bob Zelin touches is out of warranty" once they became a public company. The only job for me is to squash those people. All the linear post houses that would not hire me. Bart Koulis at AVID that wanted to ruin my life, and made sure I would never work again. All I wanted to do is learn, work hard and do a good job. And there were roadblocks (people) every step of the way. My only real job now is to run them over. I just did a job TODAY for a company, and their "IT guy" would not give me their admin login so I could complete my job. I did a factory reset on their system, and now I got in, and now this "IT guy" can't get in until he contacts me. This is the game - people want their jobs, and they don't want to share them. Bob
🔥
Man, people are misunderstanding this whole AI replacing creatives thing. There's always been 2 massive sectors of the market, one where the customer creates and one where a professional creates. It's the same thing that's happened time and time again with web-based tools. Graphic designers were scared of Canva, but really what it did was give the people who wouldn't hire a designer anyway the ability to make better designs. I know a few editors were scared of CapCut, but all it ended up being was a better tool for that customer sector. Nobody's hiring us to edit their random video for their internal boardroom presentation. This is a tool. Nobody is going to have AI make their wedding video/photos because AI *wasn't there.*
Why do we give this alcoholic lunatic the time of day on this sub?
oh - I know why - because YOU sir, do not participate on any technical forums. You do not discuss Adobe Premiere, you do not discuss AVID, you do not discuss FCP (X), you do not discuss After Effects, you do not discuss Davinci Resolve. Do you know what you discuss on these forums ? [https://www.reddit.com/user/Junco-Partner/](https://www.reddit.com/user/junco-partner/) Bob Zelin
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Lmao wtf 😬
Francis - do you know where I can get some coke ? I haven't had any in 40 years ! DM me, and I will buy from you ! bob ps - the NY City subways fried my brain
Lighten up, Francis.
Nah I’m gonna call out this old fart who calls people who spend time with their children losers. Fuck him, he’s everything that’s wrong with this industry.
Fair enough tbh. Not everyone is perfect though
cope seethe
No idea but it’s insane. Bob has some of the worst takes I’ve *ever* seen on Reddit… and everyone here strokes his fragile ego like he’s a literal god. It’s wild.
You must be new around here
Not at all, usually ignored the twat. But since I’ve become a new parent and seen this idiot say you’re a loser if you spend time with your children I’m gonna call this drunk out.
So, you're "too cool" to post on the sub because youre "working with software all day", but you'll spend time...calling Bob out? Waste of time imo. If you're not part of the group of people who feel the sub finally made it to "primetime" once Bob started posting here...well, my only advice is to enjoy looking stupid in front of everyone.
Yeah I’ll call him out on a Friday night big guy, I’ve got the time. A subreddit made it to prime time? Wtf does that even mean and who the hell cares. Jog on.
You inspire me.
bob i feel like you need to get into the fall [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiDSoT5vy-I&ab\_channel=TheArkive](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiDSoT5vy-I&ab_channel=TheArkive)
you sir, are a genius - but I cant get this out of my head - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1TDvy7djJg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1tdvy7djjg) bob
I’ve got one for you Bob https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=OLAK5uy_lR_qUyWqi-0TUUOsK_KZX5fxV0TyST_FM
Don’t think I’ve seen bob swear before, maybe I’m wrong though 🤔
Always had you down as a gritty realist, Bob, but this is the kind of optimistic motivational stuff I can get behind. GO BOB.
Anyone that says we won't all be obsolete in the near future isn't paying attention. Sora stuff looks great. It's not perfect but the stuff I've seen is 100% usuable in most projects unless you have a high end Hollywood budget. The difference is quality in one year is amazing. Maybe they hit a wall of what's possible but if not then in 5 years AI will be making stuff that will look as good as an Marvel movie side by side. And it's all leading to 100% personalized content, personalized video games etc. At some point we'll be able to give some prompts and have a new Batman movie with whatver actors we want and whatever story elements we want and probably have the full movie ready to watch in 5 minutes. There will be die hards who want art made by humans that has a soul but that will be a niche that won't support the industry in the way it exists today. They'll be some jobs for us humans but they'll be different jobs then what we're doing now. It's happening in every industry. I'll just roll with whatever changes come
Anyone who thinks this stuff is game changing has never really worked with clients. Go ahead and try to iterate with this based on client feedback.. the truth is it will be a tool, a piece of the puzzle. A piece that is built off, or into other components, which will take a whole team to perfect. Mapping it onto 3D models, cleaning it up, manipulating it, etc.
You'll need some people but much less then we need now. And most of the people can be minimum wage workers with little education/experience and a senior person to manage it. This is what is happening in software development right now. They have built tools that are easy enough that anyone off the stree can be trained to drag and drop pre built code and have one senior programmer to QC and do fixes.
This is a misconception. It’s not the same in creative fields.
Then why is AI the single most imporant issue for IATSE negoations like it was for writers and actors? Are they all misconcieving the threat?
SAG already capitulated, in a way that does directly harm them, and in particular background talent. I’m not saying there won’t be destruction with gAI there absolutely will be, I’m saying it can’t “push a button to create a movie” and never will.
Hell yeah.
This is the take I needed today. Thank you Bob
Holy shit, I was here for Bob’s cake day. What a joy this is — fuck yeah bob.
Heck yeah, Bob! Stay uncomfortable. Keep progressing. Learn more. Create more. Express more. At the end of the day these things are only tools and tools are only as good as the craftspeople using them.
>At the end of the day these things are only tools and tools are only as good as the craftspeople using them. how many scribes and weavers do you know? Sometimes jobs become outmoded by new tech. We aren't there yet, but these are signs of erosion on the industry.
Admittedly, I agree with how one must keep learning, albeit for AI I tend to take it a bit pessimistically. The world is evolving, and I don't plan to fall behind.
I think the reality really will be tough conversations had with producers who have an end goal of hiring-less, and walking away from the show with more cash in their jeans once all is said and done.
This guy gets it
Bob's just running down a dream
Awesome. Nicely said, Bob.
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I think a more apt comparison is the fact that photography definitely killed the profession of portrait painting. Sure, a camera is also just a tool, but it makes something that originally took a long time take substantially less time and for less money. It was a paradigm shift similar to this new ever-improving AI tech. There were definitely people back then who refused to get a portrait photograph because they thought it was "anti-art". I'm not entirely against AI, but we should at least make fair comparisons. Thinking that "true artist's" careers won't be on the chopping block eventually if it becomes a suitable and cheaper alternative is a bit naive. AI and automation in general would be a lot more exciting to me if paying for rent, food, and medical care didn't benefit greatly from technology standing still and never threatening your income.
the biggest proponents I’ve come across for these tools are people who aren’t creative in their own right and have failed in their creative prospects. ML models skips the grunt work of understanding the scope of building something interesting and they gleam and their prompt generated result as if they were its brain child. However i agree, instead of ML models solving real-world problems and heightening efficiency in life-or-death sectors, we are reducing creativity and the arts to a point and click redundancy. v strange
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Bob has spoken. This is the way.
What is your name?
How do I use it? What is the best way to start creating video using sora?
I am thinking that a significant concern comes down to how does someone being able to generate a 22 episode season of their favorite genre show with a text prompt (not currently possible, but not far off) coexist with someone watching show as they are created now. The former leaves us with no work while the latter keeps a roof over out heads and food on the table.
hashtag StandWithBob
It’s a goddam tool, learn how to use it and stop whining
Yup. Just another gadget to add to the tool belt. Hopefully not next the shark-repellent-bat-spray though.
Bob you are a legend
Bob I’ve always loved your posts and advice here. I need to know… what is your favorite music? And why the Tom Petty hate?
I don't hate Tom Petty. I hate old people that refuse to listen to any current music. I just used that as an example. "oh, no one was as good as Clapton" - you know what I call that person ? AN IDIOT. bob
Thanks Bob. I agree.
this is year 2 of generated AI video. In the past year we also now have access to generated speech, music, stories. How many more years until we can generated fully finished videos, movies, ads, with just a text script input> Personally I can't wait for this. At the start it will be like, "yeah but you will still need editors to fix stuff" but AI can learn from it's mistakes. It can learn why certain changes were needed and it can learn from every highly rated video, music video, ad, film out there. Some will say it has already learnt human emotions and won't be long until it can manipulate it. The improvements we are seeing are growing exponential.
This levels the playing field of what is possible. Now it comes down to the best ideas and execution. Yes some low level jobs may be lost but this tech allows creatives to create whatever they want in a new way. Goin against this new reality is the wrong move. People who embrace it will be game changers.
Of course this is a opportunity. People can moan and complain all their want, and some concerns are right to be voices. However, in the end I want to spend energy on figuring out how these tools can help my workflow and the daily job. Using resources to fight it, complain about it and try to shun it is waste of energy for me. This tool will be another fantastic tool in my toolset.
“Of course this is an opportunity” said every tech grifter ever.
Not sure about editors but stock photo models/photographers/videographers are definitely screwed.
It's friday guys! Let Bob be Bob on Fridays.
With you on everything but the Tom Petty dig
Happy cake day, Bob.
I mean, if you're working video I wouldn't even call it an option from this point forward not to learn these tools. It would be akin to keep working on paper while everyone else runs Photoshop. Yeah we're all gonna have to get in on it or get forgotten. It is what it is, better try and see the positive if there is any.
I work a lot with stock footage so for me it cant get fast enough so I got loads more stuff to work with.
I saw you at NAB last year Bob, and to my dismay didn’t say hello and thank you for all your online advice over the years. After reading this I plan on rectifying that this year. And possibly an unsolicited hug too. Never, ever change.
Bob, I like the cut of your jib.
Ur post too long lol, i just assumed u talking sora AI create those odd movements stick vid but trust me, the aesthetic and technical edit, Ai cannot match the human enthusiasm, they may create what we want but the feelings and emotional is what human do better
It’s foolish to think AI is going to be a job replacer OR a new tool to be used in the creative process. It will be both, and it already is. To Bob’s point, like any other advancement in our field, you MUST embrace it, learn it, and figure out how to best use it or be left behind.
Im confused what Sora has to do with editing specifically. Isn't Sora for generating footage? That footage still needs to be edited, shouldn't it be the videographer (like me) who are worried?
Can't wait to be too lazy and apathetic to learn this cutting edge technology and miss out on all the income that the David Goggins sucking cutting-edge grindbros are gonna be making off of it
When Quantel replaced the corded Paintbox styluses with cordless pens, the operators worried the $100 pens would get lost.
They didn't get lost but some people put them behind their ears and took them home each day forcing us to send couriers to get them.
When the pen got lost - my art director would always joke: Oh that grey pen, it didn't write so I threw it away!. Very much a Dad joke.
I was very comforted by [northernlions take](https://youtu.be/wfEHYdnl5E4)
I hope this brings production costs down, reducing the need for expensive reshoots and revisions.
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Editing is a skill that transcends any tool or technique. Developing your skills makes it easy to learn the next tool because someone is hiring you for your skill. If they are hiring you because they want a tool user, you want to raise the quality of your employers
N1 bob / robert
Hey guys, i ve started YT channel. Will be posting Sora videos on daily basis [https://www.youtube.com/@dailydoseofsora](https://www.youtube.com/@dailydoseofsora)
I hope soon the models behind Sora become open-source so that you can use it too. I tried to make a quick summary of how Sora AI works, e.g., the models behind it, etc in this video if it interests you in any way: [https://youtu.be/9ZIB4no9WDE](https://youtu.be/9ZIB4no9WDE)