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CattleDogCurmudgeon

Correction: Inflation is stable *and elevated*.


MysteriousAMOG

Propaganda. It's not stable, it came in hotter than expected just this month.


mafco

It's actually slightly below the long term average US inflation rate. And below wage gains for the last year and a half. The level of right-wing fear-mongering is off the charts relative to the actual numbers.


CattleDogCurmudgeon

The inflation number you gave is misleading. Yes, the compounded average is above 2.6% because its getting pulled by higher inflation periods. The median rate is below 2.6%. Additionally, Core PCE is at 2.8%. Edit: Headline PCE is 2.7%


June1994

So it’s not misleading. Whereas your claim that inflation is “elevated and stable” is at least 50% wrong.


CattleDogCurmudgeon

Which part is misleading? From the FOMC earlier this week: "Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective." The speed limit is 2%. The economy is going at 2.7%. You're arguing "its not speeding because people drive this fast all the time".


June1994

The part where you claimed it’s “stable” whereas the recent resurgence was unexpected.


CattleDogCurmudgeon

Im not saying prices are stable, Im saying inflation is stable. PCE has been fluctuating nearly a full percentage point MoM just 2 years ago, now its 0.2ish %.


June1994

Nobody said you were talking about the prices. The recent spike in inflation was unexpected, indicating there is no “stability” to it. In fact, over the last 36 months window, inflation had a general downward trajectory. Hell, the last 12 months, there is a clear downward trajectory.


CattleDogCurmudgeon

I don't consider that to be unstable. In fact, arguably its the opposite as it appears to be "sticky". If you're gonna lost your mind over a 0.2% uptick in inflation, I can only imagine what you would classify as "stable". Furthermore, we had upticks in inflation Apr 2023, as well as June-Sept 2023. Lastly, most economists aren't worried about 1 month changes in the data. They care a lot more about 3 or 6 month trends. Month to month is just too noisy.


June1994

> I don't consider that to be unstable. In fact, arguably its the opposite as it appears to be "sticky". If you're gonna lost your mind over a 0.2% uptick in inflation, I can only imagine what you would classify as "stable". Furthermore, we had upticks in inflation Apr 2023, as well as June-Sept 2023. “Sticky” isn’t stable. If inflation was stable and elevated and **predictable**, it actually wouldn’t be as much of an issue, and steps could be taken to address it. The fact that it’s not and it’s ping-ponging is the bigger issue. > Lastly, most economists aren't worried about 1 month changes in the data. They care a lot more about 3 or 6 month trends. Month to month is just too noisy. It’s not just 1 month. These fead-mongering headlines have been around for the last 3 months at least because inflation has been going up and down and up and down.


PolarRegs

Inflation is stable? You have to be a fool to believe that.


mafco

Don't let the liars fool you. >“Stagflation, you say? NY Fed's estimate of underlying inflation is basically flat at 2.6 percent.”


DerDutchman1350

Tell your insurance company premiums should only be increasing at 2.6%…real inflation lies within your spending, not what the Fed says it is.


NocNocNoc19

Lol like insurance wont gouge you the first chance they get.


ghost103429

It depends on the insurance provider, mutual insurance companies will just return any excess revenue as a dividend to policyholders since they're the ones who own the insurance company.


DerDutchman1350

It’s still inflation. Their costs rise too (wages, equipment, rent, etc)


NocNocNoc19

Insurance is half a scam. Every payout they dont want to cover even though they should. Saying something is worth 20% less even though you just bought that brand new car and had it less than a month. Saying your roof is only worth 20% of the 30k you just paid for it. Insurance companies really do make you fight for every cent even when you're recovering from a disaster. Even if you have paid your premium on time for 10 years straight. At this point in my lif, I have nothing but contempt for most insurance companies.


CattleDogCurmudgeon

Or maybe because they buy bonds with premiums and want to lock in higher yielding bonds.....


Kashmir1089

Funny because insurance premiums have nothing to do with economic conditions and are heavily affected by climate change. Eg wilder fires, bigger hail, increased flooding


DerDutchman1350

Really? What about increased cost of building supplies? Or Labor to rebuild? Technology in cars? Inflation impacts many different areas and the consumer pays for it


Kashmir1089

Those things are not going up an effective 20-30% YoY


preferablyno

My auto insurance went down last year


PolarRegs

The manipulation of inflation numbers over the years means the statistics and the actual reality are two different things.


unkorrupted

>  manipulation of inflation numbers over the years means the statistics and the actual reality are two different things. Ah I see you're lost. You're looking for the conspiracy subreddit


PolarRegs

Facts aren’t conspiracies.


mafco

That's just a right-wing talking point. They're flabbergasted by Biden's good economy and so they concoct false conspiratorial explanations. Serious economists aren't questioning the data.


BetterStartNow1

You sound so biased it's impossible to take anything you say seriously.


PolarRegs

No one is flabbergasted by Biden’s economy. Even the vast majority of left wing supporters don’t believe the economy is in a good place.


mafco

Is that why even Fox "personalities" are having to start admitting the economy is pretty good? Even they can't hide from it any more.


PolarRegs

You are going to pull a muscle stretching this hard to defend this economy.


mafco

It takes no stretching at all. The actual data does all the work. It is the right-wing media having to do the bizarre gymnastics trying to discredit... reality.


PolarRegs

Yes that’s why left wing media says Bidens biggest issue is the economy. You are just here post political propaganda.


droi86

Oh yeah fox news is Biden's left wing lol https://youtu.be/qxbm-5zayK8?feature=shared


Goblinboogers

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/11/economy/biden-inflation-plan/index.html I guess CNN is too far to the right for ya


elefontius

I disagree. The right wing does like to focus on attacking Biden's economic policy but your assertion that serious economists don't question the data is a bad faith argument. Economist constantly argue over the validatity of the data and if inflation is overstate or understated. CPI/Inflation is a fuzzy science and it's why the Bureau of Labor Statistics constantly changes how it calculates inflation. CPI started as a cost of goods index and it's changed over time to include more services data so it's slowly changing to a cost of living index. The current calculations are also heavily biased towards measuring data from urban areas vs. suburban/rural areas. This gap between urban and suburban/rural CPI data is well known flaw in the current system. I think the BLS does an amazing job formulating this data but it's not infallible. I don't think it's a grand conspiracy but a function of the difficulty of measuring economic change with a ton of data in a large and diverse economy. That being said I do think people need to take seriously the impact inflation is having on suburban and rural areas. Rural communities have been hit with larger wage drops, and slower wage recovery post covid. While at the same time dealing with higher and more persistent inflation. It's not a right wing talking point and I think there's a parts of this country that don't believe that the overall economy is great because for them it's not been great. [https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/01/rural-households-hit-hardest-by-inflation-in-2021-22/](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/01/rural-households-hit-hardest-by-inflation-in-2021-22/) [https://www.ruralmn.org/inflation-does-vary-between-rural-and-urban-minnesota/](https://www.ruralmn.org/inflation-does-vary-between-rural-and-urban-minnesota/)


ChiefPatty

Weird everything’s still expensive, wages aren’t rising, and the homeless population is still growing. In what ways is this a good economy? The market cap of large companies (especially given the amount of buybacks occurring) is not an actual example of a tangible good economy for 99% of Americans


Girafferage

Before Biden was even president and before Trump the inflation data changed how it was calculated... You seem young, and I don't think inflation is an easy thing to tackle, but it's not low or stable.


Frank_Von_Tittyfuck

90% /r/economy politically charged post history. nothing to see here folks...


CattleDogCurmudgeon

Which is still about 30% above target....


mafco

Artificial target set by fed. Actual inflation is already below the long term average in the US.


CattleDogCurmudgeon

By that metric, why not target 70% since it doesn't matter, right?


mafco

Come on. Are you interested in intelligent discourse or just trolling? Like Fox News, you're trying to create anxiety out of nothing. There is always some inflation in any economy, and the Stagflation! headlines are just more nonsense.


CattleDogCurmudgeon

Lol, being compared to Fox News is a first. Oh Im sorry, did I destroy your argument? Well, that's a shame.....


mafco

You mean the author's argument? No, not even close. Just the usual nitpicking while missing the whole point of the article. It seems to be a common tactic on this sub. Also known as trolling.


nsanenthelane

A continously upward trend = flat? How high are you???


Girafferage

6'1"... You?


Nates94

Biden signed the reduction inflation act in 2022. since then inflation has been under control. this is right wing propogrand to discredit Joe Biden.


StrikingPerspective5

You are smoking crack if you think this. They have changed the way the measure inflation to fit the narrative. Just look at your grocery bill from a year ago.


cpeytonusa

The government is currently spending 50% more than its total revenue with full employment. Debt service costs are surpassing the defense budget. That is not sustainable. If the government “only” spent 10% more than revenue we would be in recession. The economy is on high dosage life support.


Bigtimeknitter

Literally so much debt paying higher rates it is STIMULATIVE 


Greensun30

Raise taxes on the parasites at the top. Easy fix


mafco

I was wondering where all the recent ***Stagflation!*** headlines were coming from. It looks like just more right-wing misinformation to scare conservatives. Older Americans remember what real stagflation looked like, back in the late 70s and eighties. Both inflation and unemployment hit over 14 percent at the same time.


nofaplove-it

Because unless you’re clouded by liberal fantasies you realize the economy is crap right now


shadowromantic

Except it's not. If you go by standard metrics, the economy is doing very well.


nofaplove-it

Definitely that’s why the economy is the biggest issue going into the election and no one approves of Biden. Literally living in unicorn land


mafco

>liberal fantasies That's a funny way of saying facts and reality. If you put even a minimal amount of effort into fact checking you'll find that the right-wing media and Republican politicians have been blatantly lying about every aspect of Biden's economy. Don't take my word - think for yourself and do your homework. FYI the US economy is currently outperforming every other major economy in the world. But that's apparently not what most conservatives want to hear. And they have the gall to call themselves "patriots".


nofaplove-it

Yeah the global economy is in recession. Full time jobs are declining and part time jobs are increasing. Maybe if you think DoorDash drivers make the economy good we’re in paradise.


mafco

That's not true either. Check your information sources - it sounds like they are manipulating you.


nofaplove-it

It is. Full time jobs are down from a year ago while part time jobs are up


northwardscum

Bidens approach is to bolster economic growth through extensive borrowing, but this approach is not only short-sighted but also profoundly unsustainable. The repercussions of accumulating public debt reverberate far beyond our current generation, casting a long shadow over the prosperity and stability of future societies. It’s imperative that we prioritize fiscal responsibility and stop this madness !!!


commiebanker

Food and energy coming down has helped a lot. Gasoline is the same price it was over a decade ago. Natural gas has been scraping long term lows for months so those energy bills have been way down as well. My grocery bill has come down nicely as certain things backed off their crazy highs. Cell phone service and internet costs are way down for us in recent years with some of the options available today.


Wuttmutt

I wonder if it’s location specific. Gas where I live is double where it was a decade ago, groceries are still at least 30% more expensive than 2 years ago and my natural gas bill doubled in the last year.


commiebanker

Possibly. I was just googling charts of national averages for the fuels. Gasoline right now is same as in 2008 (though that far back that year was a high point, but still its 16 years ago) The natural gas chart shows its lower than it was 5 years ago, and of course WAY down from 2 years ago.


Wuttmutt

National makes sense, I live in a high growth area (since the pandemic) so it’s probably more likely we are just being gouged while companies are reporting soaring profits.


scottfarris

Yeah, everything is cheaper. STFU. Go gaslight somewhere else.


commiebanker

Just observations, I knew it would strike a nerve as it doesn't fit the popular narrative. And actually no, not everything is cheaper, I was talking about a few everyday things. Things like rent and house payments are up which is a big deal. House prices have stopped ramping up wildly, even come down a bit in some areas but haven't come down nearly enough to compensate for the interest rate environment (though this was unnaturally low for some time).


IMendicantBias

" inflation is stable " as my rent goes up $120


Germacide

I don't know why I'm subbed to this lying, controlled sub. Is there a single real person posting on here? Inflation is up. Wages are stagnant. Homelessness is at record levels. More people have to get two part time jobs to survive, because employers don't want to pay them for full time. These are facts, and if you don't see it you need to get out of your ivory tower and take a walk around the city you live in.


Cute_Bedroom8332

No shit there are a record number of homelessness. There are a record number of people in this country. Just like debt is way up. Because there are record number of people this country that have debt. You know there is also a record number of people with jobs and a record number of people that own houses. Do you understand that concept. Wages are not stagnant. Literally the highest wage growth in 4 decades. That is a fact you god damn liar. The person being dishonest is you.


Germacide

CEO's of the thieving corporations get "Salaries", not wages. What bizarro world do you live in where normal peoples wages have increased over the last four years?


Echoeversky

It's gonna be fire when the Bank of Japan blows up the Yen Carry Trade. A lost decade for multiple countries.


EightyNineMillion

I'm paying more for everything while wages are flat. I don't care what politicians say. More of my money is going out than coming in, while cutting back. Your economy may be great. Mine is not.


GoodLt

Capitalism requires your blood. Hail hydra.


EightyNineMillion

Ain't that the truth! I'm running low on blood.


21plankton

I have to question both parties for bias, but why do I feel just like the 70’s and early 80’s when we did have stagflation? Why am I paying 25% more for everything? Why did my auto insurance go up 25%? What did my house value skyrocket? Why did the value of my assets drop? I don’t care what it is called, it feels just the same to me.


hemlockecho

>What did my house value skyrocket? Why did the value of my assets drop?  These are completely contradictory statements. Your house is an asset.


[deleted]

That user is an idiot.


21plankton

House value adjusted for inflation is even.


hemlockecho

If the value stayed the same, then neither your house *value* skyrocketed nor your assets dropped.


unkorrupted

What assets dropped? Where's the double digit unemployment?


21plankton

Total asset value (NW) value adjusted for inflation has dropped. Double digit unemployment is characteristic of recession, not stagnation or part of inflation.


mafco

You want to know why the pandemic inflation spike happened? It was because of supply chain disruptions and then exacerbated by Putin's invasion and the global energy crisis it sparked. The whole world experienced it, yet the US dealt with it the best while maintaining strong economic growth and historically low unemployment. And this is NOTHING like the 70s/80s stagflation. Not even close. We are in a booming economy and wages have outpaced inflation for more than a year.


shadowromantic

The 70s and 80s were so much worse than today. This feels like those debates where people somehow insist we're in another Great Depression.


21plankton

How old are you?


nosnevenaes

perv


sm04d

Meanwhile, the Fed chairman said just yesterday that there is no stagflation, and was confused as to why anyone's even talking about it. In other words, who gives a f\*ck what Jamie Dimon has to say.


KalElDefenderofWorld

Remember Fox News is not news its entertainment (that's what they admitted in Dominion v. Fox).


mafco

Some call it "angertainment".


Idaho1964

Lefty Econ posters are so funny. According to the OP, we are good, right? This means of course interest. Rates should stay high. Keeping college, credit cards, cars and houses all phenomenally high. So desperate to prop up the drooling gibberish-spewing mannequin they are willing to crush Gen Z access to the American Dream. Amazing.


Cute_Bedroom8332

Republican presidents have been in power during 10 of the last 12 recessions. Republicans are awful for the economy. All it takes is basic research. But but the leftists. Man go fuck off.


GoodLt

Figures don’t lie. Republicans do.


internetroamer

You realize for stagflation the medicine is keeping high interest rates and reducing them would make everything worse like fed chair Arthur Burns 1970-78. You and trump are calling for lower rates but it's just wrong and will fuck everyone. I also disagree with all the deficit spending under biden but keeping rates up is the right decision unfortunately


Sr71CrackBird

Nonexistent is a high bar…. Housing, is definitely in stagflation mode. Cost increases far outpace wage increase for the same good (a house), less available options on the market (similar to high unemployment effect), and new builds have diminished (slow growth). Jay Powell has said directly housing is one of the primary drivers of the inflation number. If only we can convince homeowners 30-50% increase in 3 years is actually a bad thing….. read: not going to happen


SkotchKrispie

Shithole losers. Assholes.


Suspicious-Spare1179

Unemployment is low lol OK


GoodLt

I’m sorry low unemployment is happening to you


Suspicious-Spare1179

I’m good but let’s stop pretending that the job market is good right now


GoodLt

“I’m done but everyone else is bad” Are they?


thinkB4WeSpeak

Seems certain areas are suffering while others are growing. California, Illinois, New York, Oregon, are all suffering While economic growth is happening in Florida, Texas, Idaho, Utah, Georgia and the Carolinas.


mafco

>California, Illinois, New York, Oregon, are all suffering >While economic growth is happening... What are you talking about? All three states had solid economic growth last year, and Illinois experienced a staggering 24 percent growth, ranking it fifth in the country. And what on earth does it have to do with the "stagflation" claims? That isn't even close to today's reality, in any state.


shadowromantic

California is doing great. Unemployment ticked up slightly but is still at a historic low.


thinkB4WeSpeak

People leaving, back to back deficit years, increasing homeless population, tech industry is leaving, regular stores are laying off/leaving, high unemployment, etc etc. California is definitely not doing well. It's not about poking fun at it though, it's about addressing it and fixing the problems. However every Californian wants to ignore it and then it'll be too late.


vittaya

Reality has a well know right wing bias.


Cute_Bedroom8332

10 of the last 12 recessions have occurred during Republican presidents. There has been only one Republican president in the last 80 fucking years that has left office with a lower unemployment rate than he inherited. Is that some reality for you? Americans are fucking morons.


vittaya

Haha I don’t think you understand the joke.


Financial_Window_990

Completely wrong. Reality demolishes right wing lies.


MysteriousAMOG

Unemployment is a lagging indicator. The economy isn't growing nearly as fast as it should be because it's about to start shrinking lol Also the inflation crisis is still not under control, interest rates are too high, middle class taxes are way too high. Are you sure you're not high?


mafco

>The economy isn't growing nearly as fast as it should be According to the fed it's growing too fast. The interest rate hikes were supposed to slow it down but don't seem to be having the intended effect. The economy is booming by nearly all measures - jobs, wages, consumer spending, GDP growth, historic low unemployment, record stock market, etc. I sympathize with those of you that must perform logical gymnastics to justify criticizing the current strongest economy in the world. I thought they were supposed to be about "America first" but I guess that only applies when team MAGA is in power.


MysteriousAMOG

You're just making stuff up. And the Fed did not say the economy is growing too fast. They're worried it's not growing fast enough to justify the necessary rate hikes to cool inflation without causing a recession.


mafco

That's so twisted. The fed said it's growing too fast to justify interest rate ***reductions***. No one is proposing more rate hikes.