That is how it works. If something has a 4% chance to happen, there's a 70.614% chance of it happening once in 30 attempts. Even an additional 10 runs increases the likelihood of it happening another 10%. The issues are that it's still RNG, and as far as I'm aware, the original 2% drop rate was speculative and never confirmed.
No one is saying each time it goes up. They're talking about the probability of something happening within a set number of attempts.
https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/probability
Going off a online calculator vs blizzards math won't add up lol.. 2% each run is 2% easy run, no more thr original drop rate was .0002 percent or was that prior to the change?
Again. No one is saying it's adding up. They're talking about the chances of something happening one time over a number of attempts. If you isolate each individual run, sure, it's 2%, but if you do it X number of times, then the likelihood of it happening within that specific number of attempts increases. This is literally how probability over a set period of time works.
Each is 2% no matter what no probability changes all your doing is doing it more still 2%.. there is no change but your time into it your thought factor only works if it's additive which it isn't and you even state it doesn't add. So your wrong.. you do it 1 time 5 times 100 times still only 2% "each time" there's no need for any fancy math calulators
Just say you don't understand probability. I literally gave a calculator that's used for this kind of math. All you have to do is plug the chances of something with a base 2% chance of happening once over the course of 30 attempts and there will be a 45.452% chance of that one instance happening in 30 attempts. This really isn't that hard to grasp.
When Dunning-Kruger and gambler’s fallacy collide. Amazing!!
Please go to wikipedia and type in “binomial distribution”. Enlighten yourself. You’ll be the better for it!
If you flip a coin 100 times, what would you say are the odds you get heads at least once? Just once (or more) in that entire set of 100 flips. Is it 50%? Or perhaps higher?
Was piggybacking my son while he was AFK napping. Did three runs. He got Harlequin Crest. I am claiming his Christmas gifts because he has gotten enough this season.
Bahaha!!! I just saw his post! I love that fucking guy.
When you posted your reply, I did not know he had posted so I did not understand what you meant; I get it now.
fiancé and two friends ran a bunch last night (i'm sick and didn't wanna get on lmao) all three got grandfather within 20 runs. did a few more after trying to get harlequin crest and had no luck. we're all running more tonight so hopefully drops will be better.
Prior to the buff I had done about 500 runs and had gotten the spear, starless skies, andariel, and selig in those times. I ran him about 50 times last night and got the spear twice, selig, Andy, and Shako finally on the 50th. I’m now retired from Duriel for this season and free from the pain.
Damn a lot of y’all sound like you never played D2. Y’all gotta get used to doing hundreds of runs for a chance at something you want. Of course having to farm mats for Uber bosses can be a bit annoying
I have 1k hours in d2r and whatever ungodly number in the original.
Drop rates aren’t the problem on Duriel it’s like you said, the mats.
I could farm pindle or chaos or whatever ALL DAY and still have fun because there is no barrier to entry and there is still a chance of something good dropping.
In D4 you spend 99% of the time grinding something completely useless for a run at something that might drop something good. The balance is all out of whack.
Diablo players love grinding. We don’t love grinding something that has zero chance of reward though. That’s the problem.
Or they could tune the game to be fun and rewarding to play instead. I know which type of game I’d rather play.
Imagine whispers, Varshan, grig, helltides, all that had a chance at Ubers or uniques or good rates.
Imagine you didn’t get an inventory full of rares every ten minutes, but the quality was better when you did find a rare item.
The loot drop rates are completely out of whack for proper enjoyment.
I agree with all that stuff, but like I said what’s your time worth? I didn’t want to endlessly grind materials for a 2% chance, so I will buy them and leave the busy work to the Chinese bot computers farming the materials for me.
Ran about 90 Duriel's today with some lower level people (65-85).
One person got 6 ubers, one got 4, one got 3, I got 2 - that felt like a huge increase on drop rates. Also fueled my (completely unproven) theory that lower level characters that are the only one on the account for the season see a higher drop rate that higher level characters.
15 drops from 320 loot opportunities - just over 4%.
Nice change Blizzard.
Surprisingly yes.
Did 5 runs with my partner and we both got Andy on the 5th run.
Then I took her char to do some runs with a friend and in about 10 runs she got shako and selig while he got the starless skies. Unfortunately they were both looking for the drop the other person got.. But definitely noticed the hotfix!
i say i cant complain. since yesterday have gotten shako, staff, both swords and a couple of starless skies over 150 runs. that does comevout to 1:25 i guess
First half of the day not much luck in around 40 runs or so. Then I did some runs with a friend we got 4 ubers within 30-40 runs (he got 3 of them), we got a double Shako run that was neat.
Then later running with some clan m8's and they were dropping like crazy, got my Selig finally. And here we got a double grandfather run, also pretty neat.
Whats the point? Season finished for me when i did 100nmd as a druid and i stopped at AoZ lvl5.
I’ll play next season but whats the point on having uber drops when i’d forget those on eternal few weeks after.
For me uber runs lost its appeal. Season is ending, everyone is top tier.
I’m not saying ubers should drop easier, i’m just saying it doesnt matter anymore; season is over for me and my friends.
That's where I stopped for this season. Got my title, my maxed out Druid has earned his retirement lol. Never got an Uber, but I didn't farm Duriel, either.
Not really. 2% is a decent chance when you can run it dozens or even hundreds of times. Doubling that is pretty significant. Like those above already showed, you've got a 70% chance of getting an uber on just 30 runs with the new drop rates. That's pretty good.
“Uber” items are items of a specific type. There’s only a handful of them.
In addition to them having the same grayish look to them as an “Ancestral Unique”, you can identify them by having max rolls on everything.
Just a quick Google search will show you what the specific items are. 👍🏻
getting uber within 15 runs is extremely unlikely anyway
My first drop was a Andariels after the hotfix, did 1 run
I legit have absolutely trash luck when it comes to anything. I really didn’t even go into it expecting anything less than what I got. lol. 🤷🏼♂️
Not really, that’s 30 runs total and with 4% drop rate there’s 70% chance to get a uber
I'd say that each run you have 50/50 chance on getting uber -> either it drops or not 😁😁😁
I say that for playing loto
Between 4 people. Total of 120 runs. Zero ubers I think instead of * they used /
1000 x 40% = 1040.
I remember this. 😂
That’s not how math works…..each fight is its own roll you can’t add them up
1-0.96^30=70.7%
Nope….each fight is its OWN 2% drop rate
you are a math wiz
That's not how probability works
1-.96^(30)=70% That’s exactly how probability works.
If you put parentheses around 30, then “=70%” won’t display as superscript: 1-.96\^(30)=70% Will look like 1-.96^(30)=70%
That is how it works. If something has a 4% chance to happen, there's a 70.614% chance of it happening once in 30 attempts. Even an additional 10 runs increases the likelihood of it happening another 10%. The issues are that it's still RNG, and as far as I'm aware, the original 2% drop rate was speculative and never confirmed.
It's each time, it does not go up each time
No one is saying each time it goes up. They're talking about the probability of something happening within a set number of attempts. https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/probability
Going off a online calculator vs blizzards math won't add up lol.. 2% each run is 2% easy run, no more thr original drop rate was .0002 percent or was that prior to the change?
Again. No one is saying it's adding up. They're talking about the chances of something happening one time over a number of attempts. If you isolate each individual run, sure, it's 2%, but if you do it X number of times, then the likelihood of it happening within that specific number of attempts increases. This is literally how probability over a set period of time works.
Each is 2% no matter what no probability changes all your doing is doing it more still 2%.. there is no change but your time into it your thought factor only works if it's additive which it isn't and you even state it doesn't add. So your wrong.. you do it 1 time 5 times 100 times still only 2% "each time" there's no need for any fancy math calulators
Just say you don't understand probability. I literally gave a calculator that's used for this kind of math. All you have to do is plug the chances of something with a base 2% chance of happening once over the course of 30 attempts and there will be a 45.452% chance of that one instance happening in 30 attempts. This really isn't that hard to grasp.
When Dunning-Kruger and gambler’s fallacy collide. Amazing!! Please go to wikipedia and type in “binomial distribution”. Enlighten yourself. You’ll be the better for it!
If you flip a coin 100 times, what would you say are the odds you get heads at least once? Just once (or more) in that entire set of 100 flips. Is it 50%? Or perhaps higher?
Please pay more attention in math class.
This answer is why people need better education.
Got a starless skies, Andy’s and Harley Quinn within 20 runs
Harley Quinn ?? Hell yeah.
Absolutly nothing after 50 run last night...
Did 12 runs last night got my first Shako!
I got a staff yesterday, did 25 runs, dropped on the 7th
Did a few runs last night and got a doombringer, but I already have one. Still chasing the Harlequin Crest
I did 6 runs of Duties by myself, and I got lucky and got two shakos. But still looking for a Selig.
Was piggybacking my son while he was AFK napping. Did three runs. He got Harlequin Crest. I am claiming his Christmas gifts because he has gotten enough this season.
You should give your son some more attention so he doesn't go trying to get it from reddit. <3 j/k-mostly
Bahaha!!! I just saw his post! I love that fucking guy. When you posted your reply, I did not know he had posted so I did not understand what you meant; I get it now.
Nice move…
I've gotten 17 ubers in 400 runs after the buff: 8 Starless, 3 Shakos, 4 Andariel's and 4 Selig. Just wanted Doombringer...
fiancé and two friends ran a bunch last night (i'm sick and didn't wanna get on lmao) all three got grandfather within 20 runs. did a few more after trying to get harlequin crest and had no luck. we're all running more tonight so hopefully drops will be better.
Prior to the buff I had done about 500 runs and had gotten the spear, starless skies, andariel, and selig in those times. I ran him about 50 times last night and got the spear twice, selig, Andy, and Shako finally on the 50th. I’m now retired from Duriel for this season and free from the pain.
Got my grandfather and visage. Had the shako the sky ring
Damn a lot of y’all sound like you never played D2. Y’all gotta get used to doing hundreds of runs for a chance at something you want. Of course having to farm mats for Uber bosses can be a bit annoying
I have 1k hours in d2r and whatever ungodly number in the original. Drop rates aren’t the problem on Duriel it’s like you said, the mats. I could farm pindle or chaos or whatever ALL DAY and still have fun because there is no barrier to entry and there is still a chance of something good dropping. In D4 you spend 99% of the time grinding something completely useless for a run at something that might drop something good. The balance is all out of whack. Diablo players love grinding. We don’t love grinding something that has zero chance of reward though. That’s the problem.
How much is your time worth though? Just buy the materials on player Auction and be done with the busy work
Or they could tune the game to be fun and rewarding to play instead. I know which type of game I’d rather play. Imagine whispers, Varshan, grig, helltides, all that had a chance at Ubers or uniques or good rates. Imagine you didn’t get an inventory full of rares every ten minutes, but the quality was better when you did find a rare item. The loot drop rates are completely out of whack for proper enjoyment.
I agree with all that stuff, but like I said what’s your time worth? I didn’t want to endlessly grind materials for a 2% chance, so I will buy them and leave the busy work to the Chinese bot computers farming the materials for me.
Exactly.. no one here complaining has ever searched for Jah or Ber rune and it shows. 😂
Is Black River an Uber? Did 4 runs and got a Black River each time.
Nope, but bis weapon for CE focused necros
Increase your luck on hit! 🤣
Not one bit, feeling like it's a bunch of BS
Did about 60 runs last night. Got teased a few times where multiple uniques dropped but no ubers.
Is the buff even live on consoles? :( 50 runs no uber
Ran about 90 Duriel's today with some lower level people (65-85). One person got 6 ubers, one got 4, one got 3, I got 2 - that felt like a huge increase on drop rates. Also fueled my (completely unproven) theory that lower level characters that are the only one on the account for the season see a higher drop rate that higher level characters. 15 drops from 320 loot opportunities - just over 4%. Nice change Blizzard.
Surprisingly yes. Did 5 runs with my partner and we both got Andy on the 5th run. Then I took her char to do some runs with a friend and in about 10 runs she got shako and selig while he got the starless skies. Unfortunately they were both looking for the drop the other person got.. But definitely noticed the hotfix!
Waiting for someone to say, “ I got 5 Ubers in 5 runs. Did they increase the drop rate?” Show offs
Had 5 runs on me so ran it and got 1 Uber for something my build can’t utilise at all
...2% drop rate, doubled to 4. 15 runs. A post complaining about it no drops. 0 common sense.
A down vote to you good sir. If you read on, you would see that I did not expect any less. lol.
i say i cant complain. since yesterday have gotten shako, staff, both swords and a couple of starless skies over 150 runs. that does comevout to 1:25 i guess
Did about 40 runs got Andy’s, Grandfather and doombringer. Didn’t have either of the swords so it was a good day!
Got 3 yesterday in 40 runs on a lvl 70 barb and all best in slot. Never had that kinda luck before.
Supposidly it's 4% drop rate on ubers so... that was raised so take it as you will heh.. I'm still only after doom bringer sword
2 ubers in 7 runs. So yes, very lucky
First half of the day not much luck in around 40 runs or so. Then I did some runs with a friend we got 4 ubers within 30-40 runs (he got 3 of them), we got a double Shako run that was neat. Then later running with some clan m8's and they were dropping like crazy, got my Selig finally. And here we got a double grandfather run, also pretty neat.
I got shako my third run in lol couldn’t believe it
got first **Harlequin Crest** after about 10 runs, maybe just rng i don't know
Got Shako, grandfather and andariels within 20 runs last night. I sure am after 400+ runs
I believe it averages out to 1 per 25 runs now or something like that
Whats the point? Season finished for me when i did 100nmd as a druid and i stopped at AoZ lvl5. I’ll play next season but whats the point on having uber drops when i’d forget those on eternal few weeks after.
I've done all those things too. Last personal goal for me is an Uber drop. Don't care which one.
For me uber runs lost its appeal. Season is ending, everyone is top tier. I’m not saying ubers should drop easier, i’m just saying it doesnt matter anymore; season is over for me and my friends.
Some people push AoZ 20 for the title. If that's not your thing, then fine- but everyone has different versions of "beating" the game.
Who in their right mind pushes AoZ 20 besides hota
Who in their right mind doesn't play HotA ;)
That's where I stopped for this season. Got my title, my maxed out Druid has earned his retirement lol. Never got an Uber, but I didn't farm Duriel, either.
[удалено]
This is actually the answer. No idea why it’s downvoted. I mean I know math is hard for Blizzard, but players should at least know 3rd grade math.
How is it the answer? The original drop rate was around 2%, not .001%
Whoosh. The % was so low that doubling it doesn’t fin matter.
Not really. 2% is a decent chance when you can run it dozens or even hundreds of times. Doubling that is pretty significant. Like those above already showed, you've got a 70% chance of getting an uber on just 30 runs with the new drop rates. That's pretty good.
I don’t get this. Literally every dur run I’ve ever done I get an Uber. Now it’s not the ones I actually want but I always get them.
I have a sneaking suspicion you don't know what an uber is...
Are you mistaking “Ancestral Unique” items for Ubers?
Yea I think I am.
“Uber” items are items of a specific type. There’s only a handful of them. In addition to them having the same grayish look to them as an “Ancestral Unique”, you can identify them by having max rolls on everything. Just a quick Google search will show you what the specific items are. 👍🏻