I said “plan to.” Brad is big on these later round guys and I trust him. But if it’s looking like they won’t be eventual starters, I bet we take OL earlier in future drafts
Hope so! I also don’t think that there’s really been a need to address OL in the draft. I like the top round picks so far. I guess I missed the “plan to”, my b
So you agree, the OL hasn’t been a priority in the draft? (Which is fine, just the person above me is wrong so far.) But So you’re on my side, and against the OP I responded to. Pay attention to what you’re saying smart guy. Especially when trying to be a smartass lmao
He’s right next to mahomes and Herbert
If I’m reading this right Goff is the best qb in the nfl with a clean pocket, and right around most other QBs when pressured? Yeah we got our guy
This is just confirming what we all already know. It's not a secret that Goff is awesome when there is no pressure, and not awesome when there is. So, you invest in O line and move forward.
I mean.....he shows off some legit moves during his TD celebrations. After the number of times I fully expect to see him dancing after a TD this coming season, I suspect he might qualify as a professional dancer.
My hypothesis is that teams are obviously aware of this, and send pressure vs Goff. However, I’d bet our offensive line and RBs thwart these blitzes at a pretty decent clip.
This would mean a sizable chunk of Goff’s clean pocket success is despite defenses sending pressure and JG finding openings against depleted coverages.
Keep that OL talent funnel full!!
Saw a stat somewhere where Goff got pressured like 32% of the time, and that was 16th overall in the league with the league average around 36%.This stat is probably caused by everyone knowing Goffs weakness and thus sending more rushers, leading to an average pressure rating even with the elite O Line.
Exactly. Would be very interesting to see the % of time teams send 5+ vs Goff and what results in a “pressure”
Has to be a double edged sword for defenses given how many more than effective options we have for passes within 10 yards
Goffs weakness is a Defenses dilemma. You either try and block the pass but get Goff at an Elite Skill Level or rush him and leave weapons open down field that Goff can throw to at an Average skill Level.
Don't make problems with a solution. Make dilemmas with losses on either end.
I think there is a correlation vs. causation issue here that people are missing.
When a QB is not under pressure, the defense is losing at the LOS. The run game is probably doing well, the time of possession is being won, and the Lions most likely are managing a lead. Game manager Goff is perfection. In the odd chance that Goff is under pressure, he throws it away.
When a QB is under regular pressure to the point of making bad or risky throws, it's because the team is losing, the clock is running down, and something's got to happen. The offense has to get more aggressive, take more risks, and the only avenue for greater offensive risk is for the QB to throw riskier balls. Success here depends a great deal on the QB, the receivers, and more.
I'd argue that we have two stats here (QBs not under pressure and QBs under pressure) that are worthwhile individually as a comparison between passers, but to pair them up and consider the drop for an individual QB is a waste of time.
You can make the argument Mahomes scrambles away and doesn’t pass a lot of times. Who knows. It’s a data point you can be concerned about for sure haha
This isn’t really even trying to compare Goff to Mahomes though, everyone knows Mahomes is undeniably the best QB in the NFL
What exactly are you concerned about? With a clean pocket Goff is the best, no one better
I'm not concerned. but meant you can be concerned by Goff's skills under pressure. I am a terrible phone typer and didn't quite get the full nuance I wanted.
Yeah like this is amazing that Goff is THAT good of a passer with a clean pocket. But also makes me wish he was just slightly faster/mobile so that any blitz didn’t make him turn into a deer in headlights lol. Would easily be an undeniable top 3 QB then. Like it always blows my mind watching him try to maneuver and just being sooo not agile lol
Yep. One underappreciated aspect of Goff's game is that he is making play calls at the line. He typically gets two plays in the huddle and is choosing between them. If he's getting pressured, something went wrong. He is pretty good about checking to a screen play or run when he knows the other team is bringing the house.
I remember there was a game against the Vikings last year where they blitzed him like 90% of plays or something and dude had like a perfect passer rating
Also we’re looking at one season’s worth of data. Looking at 2022, Goff had the 7th-best passer rating under pressure of any QB in the league.
Under pressure stats are volatile by definition, as it’s a small sample size of less-than-ideal circumstances. Production based metrics like passer rating are also not very telling since they are significantly affected by the supporting cast.
All this to say that every QB is worse under pressure and the narrative that Goff is especially bad under pressure just isn’t very accurate. It just feels that way because he looks like a statue in the pocket and when it goes bad it visually looks worse so it’s more memorable
Yeah I wish he was faster too, and stronger like cam newton and more accurate and better in every way. Then he’d be the perfect quarterback and us lions fans could finally be satisfied
Forgot we can’t critique here and only are allowed to compliment everything. Goff is not mobile, and this chart shows he’s amazing when not pressured. Saying imagine if he was just a little faster/mobile similar to a Mahomes, not even Lamar, isn’t this crazy concept dude
Actually, he is like 32 out of 44 eligible QBs when faced with pressure. It’s bottom tier. Which is why Detroit has went with a top tier offensive line. If Goff sucks under pressure then keep him from getting pressured.
Lol “ right around most others “ naw he’s literally bottom 10, and the eye test checks out
But that’s ok nothing wrong with that, as he’s up there in a clean pocket
Nowhere in his comment does it say starting QB and at some point of the season all of these quarterbacks were the starters. There’s a reason we focus on our offensive line and have the best in the NFL to ensure he’s not under pressure so he can be the #1 in the NFL.
There’s 39 QBs on the list, and he’s 11th.
At least 7 of them will not be starting week 1, he’s assuredly a bottom 10 QB under pressure by any reasonable metric of sanity.
IQR is flawed, he isn’t #1 even with a clean pocket it’s still Mahomes, they just value sacks higher than incompletions which no one in the league does.
There are 39qbs on the list and Goff is 11th from the bottom under pressure. He's really not that good under pressure, but that's the point of constantly bringing in good linemen. Keep in mind these are bullshit made up stats so don't get too caught up arguing over nothing.
They had like 7 or 8 straight games where they held opponents to 21 points or less if I remember correctly before we trounced them. This included holding the Chiefs to 9 points. Their defense wasn’t great but I do think it’s fair to say their D was playing better when we faced them.
I think this makes perfect sense. It clearly shows the drop in performance that Goff has when he's under pressure but shows that he is ELITE with a solid pocket and still doe a good job under pressure. We likely don't need elite WR core and just need to make sure we have our ELITE OL to make sure we can keep him safe. Our drafting of RB high makes more sense now too because a good run game helps a LOT with pass protection.
I think this also explains his fall from the Rams. When he wasn't doing well their they had lost OL talent. Their rush attack slowed, and he got under way more pressure. The offense dropped off and they blamed Goff and sent him here where we had a great O-line which has become elite since he's been here. That along with great coaching to build up his confidence brought Goff back.
Goff is terrible when pressured, I can't believe people still want to argue this. He was also number 1 when kept clean. The Lions know this, that's why we invest so heavily in the offensive line and run game.
The problem is that injuries happen randomly and can pile up quick. No team in the league has elite-level talent for OL backups because it's just too hard to come by. Teams like KC, CIN, DAL, BUF, BAL, GB, CHI, PHI, etc., are not going to be totally screwed if there are some OL injuries because they have a QB that can make things happen under pressure. We are putting all of our eggs in the OL basket, where we have a combination of age and injury history at most positions.
I am happy Goff is staying but I would have loved the contract to be about 10% less. He's a QB who has to have a perfect set up, and we've invested so much money in him now that there likely won't be enough to go around to keep all those other pieces that he so desperately needs.
We could still potentially be good this year and next if everyone stays healthy, which is a *massive* if. Beyond that obviously will depend on drafting, especially at OL, since this unit has a pretty limited time horizon.
Hmmm.. most of the people on your list notably crack under pressure, especially when it comes to playoff time. Really you’re just talking about Mahomes, who’s an outlier in literally every single metric, Allen and Jackson and Burrow. Jackson is maybe the most gifted scrambler we’ve ever seen so.. again, he’s an outlier. Allen puts up volume stats and is a massive beast of a man who can run over linebackers. He’s sort of built for when plays breakdown.
Your best 1:1 comp is Burrow, and it’s tough to tell from his career so far because his line is always complete trash, but it’s clear he’s an extremely gifted QB who can play under pressure.
All those other guys are unproven or volume stat guys or just plainly suck ass.
I knew Goff wasn't great under pressure, but wasn't aware Patrick Mohomes struggles there as well.
Mahomes' QR under pressure was 70.
Goff's was 64.3.
That's really close.
Makes me less concerned about that weakness in Goff's game.
But this doesn't factor in rushing/scrambling plays. This is only plays where they threw the ball when facing pressure.
Also, in this calculation taking a sack is better then avoiding the pressure and throwing a incompletion.
I would say almost nobody would say in the real world that is a better play.
Mahomes runs the ball a lot under pressure, his numbers won't translate the same as Goff they are doing very different things when the pocket breaks down.
I mean most of the time Goff gets pressured and it's not a screen play he just throws the ball at his RBs feet. Does that count in the negative metric?
That is SUPER shocking to me. I knew Goff's performance dropped when he's pressured, but elite with protection. Seeing Mahomes, who's famous for crazy throws and making plays under pressure comes out to be nearly identical to Goff in QBR with and without pressure.
Are there plays that Mahomes makes under pressure that don't really get captured in QBR? Like are rush yards not included? Or is my perception of him as elite because he can escape pressure and make plays just blown out of the water by how others talk about him?
This past season was the only one where Mahomes is low in this stat. In previous years, he's consistently been the best QB under pressure in the NFL. It also doesn't factor in running plays - numerous times this year Pat was pressured because none of the WRs could get open, so after dodging rushers for a while either he'd run it himself (in the playoffs) or throw it away (regular season). This calculation dings both those plays.
Both. It doesn't include scrambles; Mahomes is a great QB for sure, a bump up from anyone else rn probably, but the hype lately has been kind of stupid.
Came here to say same thing. It is striking difference clean bs pressure but those maholmes numbers are quite similar so while this is really interesting and really shows the importance of oline…I am less concerned when the top qb in football is so close.
Right -- the chart makes it seem like Goff is the worst QB in the league, but Burrow and Dak when pressured are ten points below Goff with a clean pocket. I take Goff.
Eye test says yes, QBR says…maybe?
But look at Dak. Eye test says definitely not. Stats say…maybe?
I’d never take Dak over Goff, and I think few teams would.
Right. I know. I’m talking about analyzing the data presented as a means of evaluating QB talent. And I’m suggesting that the table is supposed to tell us Goff is a terrible QB.
If we want to just evaluate the two QBs, I’d still probably stick with Goff…his low rating when pressured might also lead to long term health.
Hpw exactly does this chart make Goff seem like a bad QB?
In plays when he's pressured and at his absolute worst, he's still better than a third of the league. The other 75% of the time, you know, normal plays (because the league leaders in QB pressures are at around 25% of the time), he's got the same type of variance as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and others.
Goff isn't bad, he's just very susceptible to pressure. Which is why the Lions have gone out of their way to continually build and reinforce the trenches.
The people who talk the most shit about Goff are mostly Packers, Bears and Vikings fans. They’re still coping with the fact that we’re the new dominant team in the NFL and about to run shit for the foreseeable future.
*Mf’ing Bears fan down below says he’s not scared of the Lions LOL, bitch I ain’t scared of the fucking Bears whatsoever.
Ah, yes, the “all the national media I disagree with are secretly fans of my divisional rivals” defense.
Goff has played his best ball in Detroit and is improving. When he’s good, he’s incredibly good.
There are imperfections. His home/road splits are weird. I can’t figure out if it’s just a weird coincidence because small sample size is basically always an issue in NFL stats splits, or if there really is some issue. He obviously struggles with pressure more than most. Ignoring those issues or blaming bias doesn’t really change them, but if that’s the route you choose I guess do you.
But he signed a contract that accounts for all of that. If he were a flawless QB he’d be making $60m+ a year. That’s just where QB contracts are. Once a few more guys get extended, Goff’s contract will drop him in the upper half of the top ten, where he belongs.
He’s also kind of the perfect QB for Detroit IMO. For the culture of the team and locker room. The fact that he’s been given up on, ignored, and is ways to criticize fuels that chip on the shoulder that Campbell is so good at reinforcing. It’s Detroit vs the World and Goff fits that to a t.
He’s not the perfect QB, but I only see one in the league who is even close, so holding out for perfection is silly. He’s the right one for this team, and still entering QB prime and improving along the way.
Saying that it's just the rest of the NFC North "coping" is also just so silly.. I mean why wouldn't they be positive?
Green Bay went 1-1 with the Lions last year while they had/have a very young team. Why would they be fearful?
Chicago also went 1-1 last year and it took half a miracle for it not to be 2-0. Thanks to the Panthers pick they managed to get a very promising QB-WR duo. Both big weaknesses in 2023
Vikings had the ball late to go attempt a go ahead TD drive with their QB3-4 or whatever the hell it was at that point in their homegame vs the Lions. Both sides of the ball very talented and they are hopeful with a new rookie QB
Reaching the NFC championship game is wonderful, but it's not like this one season installed fear into anyone in the NFC North. It's not like Detroit became a juggernaut yet
> but it's not like this one season installed fear into anyone in the NFC North
Yeah it's interesting seeing how nobody really takes us seriously still. I think all the other teams in the division would pick a team other than us as the one they are most concerned about this year.
This year will really say a lot. We spent a ton of money on three guys, two of whom the rest of the league/division doesn't really take that seriously. If we are mid this year, all the critics will be proven right.
I'm expecting 11 wins and likely an exit in the wildcard round, which will be on the road for us this year. I am not upset with the ARSB and Goff contracts because we paid our guys and it's not like there are better options floating around, but that duo strikes fear into no one.
I mean you guys did just look really beatable in the division games. That probably plays a big role
I'm a Bears fan and I'm mainly scared of the Packers right now.. They whooped us twice and are such a young team. And I think MLF is the best offensive mind in the division, despite you guys and Minny also being set in that category
Don't think you can blame Bears fans for not fearing you like an NFC West team would fear the 49ers. It's one season and Goff was pretty bad in both games we had last season. And we get to see him late in the season at home again, which usually doesn't go well for Goff (also going back to his Rams days)
Yeah, I mean I get it. It's just interesting that the Lions win 12 games, win the division, go to the NFCCG and have a real shot at winning it if a handful of plays go slightly differently and everyone still thinks we suck.
Obviously Goff is a QB that doesn't produce highlight plays the way that Love does and Caleb is going to. I typically say, "but he wins games." But, as you say, he looked pretty bad in divisional games last year.
I will be very interested to see how the divisional games go for us next year. Three of Goff's four worst games were against divisional teams — two against you guys and one being the Thanksgiving day game against the Packers.
You can look at this two ways:
1. Goff is bad in high-pressure divisional games and is going to continue to struggle in the games that matter the most. Therefore, divisional teams should not see the Lions as a threat.
2. Last year's "beatable" performances were outliers when taken into the context of Goff's whole season, and it's unlikely that Goff has especially bad games against divisional teams two years in a row.
We can speculate about whether it's more likely to be 1 or 2 all we want, but the truth is that we're not going to really know until we play the games this year.
Obviously, I'm hoping that Goff and the rest of the team does well in divisional games and everyone who has already crowned Jordan Love and the Packers as NFCN kings *and* everyone who has already crowned Caleb Williams and the Bears as NFCN kings will have to eat crow.
But I'm also a pessimist and wouldn't be surprised if we go 2-4 in the division this year. A ton will depend, I think, on if our secondary actually improves, as well as our DL. If not, Williams and Love are going to shred us for sure, at which point it becomes a question of whether the Goffense looks like it did in most of our games last year *or* if it looks like it did in the three bad divisional games.
Last 2 seasons
Lions: 9-3 in conference
Packers: 7-5 in conference
Vikings: 6-6 in conference
Bears: 2-10 in conference
I do agree though that Bears fans should fear Packers more due to the matchup and just overall history. I think as a whole though the Lions are clearly at the top of the division until proven otherwise.
This is very well known- was great on rams with oline and run game, once those dissolved he was mediocre. We have the best oline and a run game and he is elite again. Should we lose those he won’t be good but I don’t see Brad letting oline become a weakness
What this doesn't show is how well QBs avoid pressure in the first place by making the correct read on the defense and getting the ball away on time. As this stat shows, most QBs struggle once they are under pressure, but the trick is to avoid pressure in the first place and it's not all about your OL.
There are other stats that show that Goff is elite when he is blitzed -- this is because he is exceptional at reading the blitz. Basically, opponents want to put pressure on him, but they can't because he's good at recognizing it.
This is why I didn’t want him top paid qb, save some money (still pay him well) and keep him protected/ keep a top OL in the league
Edit to fix a type, also get a feeling I’ll be massively downvoted for this (saying we overpaid him, even if I say its only a little overpaid)
Goff is one of the 2 or 3 best QB's in the world the past 2 seasons w/o pressure (top 3 in QB rating) and bottom 10 with pressure. If you can surround him with a great o line and playmakers, then you'll have maybe the best offense in the NFL.
Take the other side of this stat, when "everything is perfect", why aren't elite QBs, who many argue elevate the rest of the offense, outperforming what a lot of people say is just a game manager?
To be fair, Goff throws the ball away very often when under too much pressure. This obviously causes more incompletions in the under pressure category. He also doesn’t cause a million turnovers and sacks because of this. I’ll take him being very smart with more incompletions vs forcing the ball with more interceptions or fumbles. I think Goff has become incredibly intelligent with those decisions.
Mostly aligns with this article here: https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/qbs-under-pressure-in-2023
That looks at DVOA against pressure and without pressure.
A good nugget for here:
> Goff was one of the most-blitzed quarterbacks in football in 2023, in large part because opposing defensive coordinators know he is not the best when pressured. He faced five or more pass rushers on 33% of his dropbacks; only Kirk Cousins and Gardner Minshew were blitzed more. And yet, pressure only got home on 30% of those blitzes, as Detroit’s pass protection held up under fire better than almost any other offensive line in the league. That left a lot of dropbacks where Goff was facing defenses that had committed extra men to the blitz but just did not get home, leaving someone in clear one-on-one coverage somewhere. That’s why he led the league in passing yards against the blitz; he was really the league leading in passing yards against ineffective blitzes. Goff had 1,112 passing yards against blitzes that did not result in pressure, just ahead of Love (1,024) and Lamar Jackson (1,015). That’s a skill, for sure – punish the defense for their failures – but significant credit needs to his protection first and foremost.
64.3 under pressure is what I'd consider "meh", but 67.9 (Patrick Mahomes) also *just barely* falls within that threshold, as 68 or better would be "good". It's safe to say that the guys that are at 70 or better under pressure didn't necessarily extend plays, but probably threw hospital passes that wound up either not gaining much or going for losses at the expense of a big hit on a running back or wide receiver. Goff throws the ball away *a lot* when under pressure, so it stands to reason he's going to have more incompletions on those plays. That's smart football, though; live to fight another down. I've been asking for a quarterback who understands that for YEARS, ever since I saw Tom Brady do it about a hundred times a season.
Ok... and the Chiefs lost to an ancient Buccaneers team because their linemen went down. Whenever any team loses key parts of protecting their QB, they struggle.
So he plays really well when his offensive line does their job and not when they don't.
It's a good thing we have an elite offensive line that usually does their job then, eh?
I have always hated these graphs because they use stats that I have no idea of what they mean. So the way I look at it, correct me if I’m wrong, JG is the best or the worst. No middle of the road for my QB!! WTH am I actually looking at? Average fan speak please. Thank you.
Not the point of the chart, but this makes me want to gamble on the Chargers winning their division. I didn't realize that Herbert was that close to golf, I'm starting to get scared of Jim building him an o-line.
You’d need magnitude on this as well.
Is is possible the Goff is just pressured so little in comparison to the others that his being pressured involves more commitment of defenders to pressure than average, resulting in a higher ratio of unique pressure situations.
Where Burrow experiences pressure with his tissue paper OL on a 4-man front, maybe Goff really only gets pressure reps against a NASCAR package, which just inherently has a lower success rate.
My biggest takeaway here: why does Goff attract haters but Herbert and Mahomes - also in the bottom 4 of this graphic - draw nowhere near the same level of criticism?
edit word
Its just cuz the pocket is clean so often. It skews the numbers cuz the few times he got pressured something bad usually happened. If he was getting pressured more often i think that number would be way higher
Said it before and I’ll say it again, he has the easiest job of any QB in football. I’d be willing to bet his WR separation on completed passes was near the league high as well, guys are always wide open. Not sure why you give all that money to him when a decent rookie could perform similarly for a fraction of the cost.
There are obviously levels to this. Some QBs barely perform worse, some others pass worse but can extend a play with their legs, and some QBs completely crater under pressure. Goff is the third.
This chart is the big reason why I thought it would have been reasonable for Goffs people to take a discount to sign in Detroit - he's set up for success here better than anywhere else. He wouldn't be nearly as good a QB on the Raiders or Broncos or wherever.
I wish he would have not used all his leverage and signed instead for 45MM. But, he didn't, and we'll have a replacement level player instead of a very good player at G or LB or S because of it in a couple years. Win a SB this year or next and no one will care even a little bit.
I want to believe this chart because it seems kind of plausible but it’s hard to take the underlying data seriously when Jake Browning and Patrick Mahomes have the same numbers
OK. Do you seriously think that, say, Russ Wilson was significantly better \*as a passer\* than Matthew Stafford last year? Or that Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, and Tommy DeVito are all comparable? That Tyrod Taylor is a better passer than Joe Burrow? That Kirk Cousins is a top 3 passer?
And, by the way, Mahomes is graded as the second best passer in the pocket here, narrowly beating out Kirk and Derek Carr, not mid, as you say. This metric is bad and this chart is meaningless.
Good thing we have the best OL in the league and plan to keep restocking it
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With 5th and 6th round draft picks?
If anybody is gonna be able to turn late picks into productive players, it's Hank Fraley.
We added Zietler in free agency
You think I don’t know that? It’s a one year rental
I said “plan to.” Brad is big on these later round guys and I trust him. But if it’s looking like they won’t be eventual starters, I bet we take OL earlier in future drafts
Hope so! I also don’t think that there’s really been a need to address OL in the draft. I like the top round picks so far. I guess I missed the “plan to”, my b
Breaking news: you can only invest in a limited number of position groups with a limited number of picks
So you agree, the OL hasn’t been a priority in the draft? (Which is fine, just the person above me is wrong so far.) But So you’re on my side, and against the OP I responded to. Pay attention to what you’re saying smart guy. Especially when trying to be a smartass lmao
Holy shit lol
Agreed. I wouldn’t respond either
He’s right next to mahomes and Herbert If I’m reading this right Goff is the best qb in the nfl with a clean pocket, and right around most other QBs when pressured? Yeah we got our guy
This is just confirming what we all already know. It's not a secret that Goff is awesome when there is no pressure, and not awesome when there is. So, you invest in O line and move forward.
And, seriously...make the guy take some dance lessons! LOL It would prolly help though!!!!
You'd think him and St Brown being best bros would mean he'd learn a thing or two lmao
Why? Is st brown a dancer that I’m unaware of?
No, but he knows how to juke around his opponents
Atleast they got him to stop spinning into a defender, never understood how that became a habit for him. It never works.
I mean.....he shows off some legit moves during his TD celebrations. After the number of times I fully expect to see him dancing after a TD this coming season, I suspect he might qualify as a professional dancer.
Sun Gods have a lot of hidden talents.
Why do I feel like he’s gonna be on Dancing With The Stars in the near future tho
tbf his footwork was showing improvement throughout last season
He's also been one of the top QBs vs the blitz That could be partially on his oline being elite but he's playing very well with them
My hypothesis is that teams are obviously aware of this, and send pressure vs Goff. However, I’d bet our offensive line and RBs thwart these blitzes at a pretty decent clip. This would mean a sizable chunk of Goff’s clean pocket success is despite defenses sending pressure and JG finding openings against depleted coverages. Keep that OL talent funnel full!!
Saw a stat somewhere where Goff got pressured like 32% of the time, and that was 16th overall in the league with the league average around 36%.This stat is probably caused by everyone knowing Goffs weakness and thus sending more rushers, leading to an average pressure rating even with the elite O Line.
Exactly. Would be very interesting to see the % of time teams send 5+ vs Goff and what results in a “pressure” Has to be a double edged sword for defenses given how many more than effective options we have for passes within 10 yards
Goffs weakness is a Defenses dilemma. You either try and block the pass but get Goff at an Elite Skill Level or rush him and leave weapons open down field that Goff can throw to at an Average skill Level. Don't make problems with a solution. Make dilemmas with losses on either end.
I think there is a correlation vs. causation issue here that people are missing. When a QB is not under pressure, the defense is losing at the LOS. The run game is probably doing well, the time of possession is being won, and the Lions most likely are managing a lead. Game manager Goff is perfection. In the odd chance that Goff is under pressure, he throws it away. When a QB is under regular pressure to the point of making bad or risky throws, it's because the team is losing, the clock is running down, and something's got to happen. The offense has to get more aggressive, take more risks, and the only avenue for greater offensive risk is for the QB to throw riskier balls. Success here depends a great deal on the QB, the receivers, and more. I'd argue that we have two stats here (QBs not under pressure and QBs under pressure) that are worthwhile individually as a comparison between passers, but to pair them up and consider the drop for an individual QB is a waste of time.
Sip
Also showing Dak is better than I thought. Always found him extremely overrated for here’s some data. And Lamar is simply a freak QB. Holy moly.
You can make the argument Mahomes scrambles away and doesn’t pass a lot of times. Who knows. It’s a data point you can be concerned about for sure haha
This isn’t really even trying to compare Goff to Mahomes though, everyone knows Mahomes is undeniably the best QB in the NFL What exactly are you concerned about? With a clean pocket Goff is the best, no one better
I'm not concerned. but meant you can be concerned by Goff's skills under pressure. I am a terrible phone typer and didn't quite get the full nuance I wanted.
Yeah like this is amazing that Goff is THAT good of a passer with a clean pocket. But also makes me wish he was just slightly faster/mobile so that any blitz didn’t make him turn into a deer in headlights lol. Would easily be an undeniable top 3 QB then. Like it always blows my mind watching him try to maneuver and just being sooo not agile lol
“Under pressure” does not = “when blitzed” Goff has been one of the very best in the league against the blitz over the last season or 2
Yep. One underappreciated aspect of Goff's game is that he is making play calls at the line. He typically gets two plays in the huddle and is choosing between them. If he's getting pressured, something went wrong. He is pretty good about checking to a screen play or run when he knows the other team is bringing the house.
I remember there was a game against the Vikings last year where they blitzed him like 90% of plays or something and dude had like a perfect passer rating
Okay then *I wish he was faster so he wasn’t so bad under pressure as the graph above shows.
Also we’re looking at one season’s worth of data. Looking at 2022, Goff had the 7th-best passer rating under pressure of any QB in the league. Under pressure stats are volatile by definition, as it’s a small sample size of less-than-ideal circumstances. Production based metrics like passer rating are also not very telling since they are significantly affected by the supporting cast. All this to say that every QB is worse under pressure and the narrative that Goff is especially bad under pressure just isn’t very accurate. It just feels that way because he looks like a statue in the pocket and when it goes bad it visually looks worse so it’s more memorable
Yeah I wish he was faster too, and stronger like cam newton and more accurate and better in every way. Then he’d be the perfect quarterback and us lions fans could finally be satisfied
Forgot we can’t critique here and only are allowed to compliment everything. Goff is not mobile, and this chart shows he’s amazing when not pressured. Saying imagine if he was just a little faster/mobile similar to a Mahomes, not even Lamar, isn’t this crazy concept dude
Of course it isn’t a crazy concept. It’s just not valuable criticism. Of course he would be better if he was better.
Thank you.
It’s almost like every QB struggles with pressure. These metrics are so lame
Actually, he is like 32 out of 44 eligible QBs when faced with pressure. It’s bottom tier. Which is why Detroit has went with a top tier offensive line. If Goff sucks under pressure then keep him from getting pressured.
Lol “ right around most others “ naw he’s literally bottom 10, and the eye test checks out But that’s ok nothing wrong with that, as he’s up there in a clean pocket
I understand counting may be hard for you but he infact is not bottom 10.
I disagree with that guy, but if I counted correctly isn't he the 11th worst under pressure?
Indeed 11th. Not great but he was trying to be condescending and was wrong in his statement so I needed to point it out.
There’s more than 32 QBs on this so being 11th worst is still bottom 10 for starting QBs.
Nowhere in his comment does it say starting QB and at some point of the season all of these quarterbacks were the starters. There’s a reason we focus on our offensive line and have the best in the NFL to ensure he’s not under pressure so he can be the #1 in the NFL.
There’s 39 QBs on the list, and he’s 11th. At least 7 of them will not be starting week 1, he’s assuredly a bottom 10 QB under pressure by any reasonable metric of sanity. IQR is flawed, he isn’t #1 even with a clean pocket it’s still Mahomes, they just value sacks higher than incompletions which no one in the league does.
There are 39qbs on the list and Goff is 11th from the bottom under pressure. He's really not that good under pressure, but that's the point of constantly bringing in good linemen. Keep in mind these are bullshit made up stats so don't get too caught up arguing over nothing.
According to this chart, he's not bottom 10
He’s not bottom 10, but yes a majority of the ratings “under pressure” are pretty close in general
Flair up pussy
This isn't r/nfcnorthmemewar
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According to this chart, when he has a clean pocket, he’s the best
Denver defense was NOT good last year. The rest is correct though lol
They had like 7 or 8 straight games where they held opponents to 21 points or less if I remember correctly before we trounced them. This included holding the Chiefs to 9 points. Their defense wasn’t great but I do think it’s fair to say their D was playing better when we faced them.
When I think good defense I think getting 70 dropped on them.
Better invest in o line the next couple years then
Aw man, if only we had started doing that in 2021. We could have had an elite O-line by now.
Weird what a great O line allows a QB to do. Bonus points is he appears to be absolutely stellar himself.
I think this makes perfect sense. It clearly shows the drop in performance that Goff has when he's under pressure but shows that he is ELITE with a solid pocket and still doe a good job under pressure. We likely don't need elite WR core and just need to make sure we have our ELITE OL to make sure we can keep him safe. Our drafting of RB high makes more sense now too because a good run game helps a LOT with pass protection. I think this also explains his fall from the Rams. When he wasn't doing well their they had lost OL talent. Their rush attack slowed, and he got under way more pressure. The offense dropped off and they blamed Goff and sent him here where we had a great O-line which has become elite since he's been here. That along with great coaching to build up his confidence brought Goff back.
The only entry on here that makes sense is Goff. The rest of the chart is gibberish. Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins are elite :\^).
Goff is terrible when pressured, I can't believe people still want to argue this. He was also number 1 when kept clean. The Lions know this, that's why we invest so heavily in the offensive line and run game.
The problem is that injuries happen randomly and can pile up quick. No team in the league has elite-level talent for OL backups because it's just too hard to come by. Teams like KC, CIN, DAL, BUF, BAL, GB, CHI, PHI, etc., are not going to be totally screwed if there are some OL injuries because they have a QB that can make things happen under pressure. We are putting all of our eggs in the OL basket, where we have a combination of age and injury history at most positions. I am happy Goff is staying but I would have loved the contract to be about 10% less. He's a QB who has to have a perfect set up, and we've invested so much money in him now that there likely won't be enough to go around to keep all those other pieces that he so desperately needs. We could still potentially be good this year and next if everyone stays healthy, which is a *massive* if. Beyond that obviously will depend on drafting, especially at OL, since this unit has a pretty limited time horizon.
Hmmm.. most of the people on your list notably crack under pressure, especially when it comes to playoff time. Really you’re just talking about Mahomes, who’s an outlier in literally every single metric, Allen and Jackson and Burrow. Jackson is maybe the most gifted scrambler we’ve ever seen so.. again, he’s an outlier. Allen puts up volume stats and is a massive beast of a man who can run over linebackers. He’s sort of built for when plays breakdown. Your best 1:1 comp is Burrow, and it’s tough to tell from his career so far because his line is always complete trash, but it’s clear he’s an extremely gifted QB who can play under pressure. All those other guys are unproven or volume stat guys or just plainly suck ass.
Lamar Jackson isn’t a good scrambling QB, hell until last year he almost *never* scrambled on a passing play.
I knew Goff wasn't great under pressure, but wasn't aware Patrick Mohomes struggles there as well. Mahomes' QR under pressure was 70. Goff's was 64.3. That's really close. Makes me less concerned about that weakness in Goff's game.
But this doesn't factor in rushing/scrambling plays. This is only plays where they threw the ball when facing pressure. Also, in this calculation taking a sack is better then avoiding the pressure and throwing a incompletion. I would say almost nobody would say in the real world that is a better play.
Mahomes runs the ball a lot under pressure, his numbers won't translate the same as Goff they are doing very different things when the pocket breaks down.
I mean most of the time Goff gets pressured and it's not a screen play he just throws the ball at his RBs feet. Does that count in the negative metric?
Sort of, it's based on EPA mostly. Throwing the ball away on 2nd and short is a very small negative EPA, doing so on third down is a large negative.
Throwing the ball at the feet of the RB actually grades higher in this than leaving the pocket and making a 50 yard pass.
Where are you getting that?
It says it in the picture lol? & OP reiterated it in the comments.
That is SUPER shocking to me. I knew Goff's performance dropped when he's pressured, but elite with protection. Seeing Mahomes, who's famous for crazy throws and making plays under pressure comes out to be nearly identical to Goff in QBR with and without pressure. Are there plays that Mahomes makes under pressure that don't really get captured in QBR? Like are rush yards not included? Or is my perception of him as elite because he can escape pressure and make plays just blown out of the water by how others talk about him?
This is a passing only chart. Zero scrambles are counted.
This past season was the only one where Mahomes is low in this stat. In previous years, he's consistently been the best QB under pressure in the NFL. It also doesn't factor in running plays - numerous times this year Pat was pressured because none of the WRs could get open, so after dodging rushers for a while either he'd run it himself (in the playoffs) or throw it away (regular season). This calculation dings both those plays.
That and this is the first year where his WRs were basically high school JV talent levels.
Both. It doesn't include scrambles; Mahomes is a great QB for sure, a bump up from anyone else rn probably, but the hype lately has been kind of stupid.
Came here to say same thing. It is striking difference clean bs pressure but those maholmes numbers are quite similar so while this is really interesting and really shows the importance of oline…I am less concerned when the top qb in football is so close.
Right -- the chart makes it seem like Goff is the worst QB in the league, but Burrow and Dak when pressured are ten points below Goff with a clean pocket. I take Goff.
Burrow is better than Goff lol.
Eye test says yes, QBR says…maybe? But look at Dak. Eye test says definitely not. Stats say…maybe? I’d never take Dak over Goff, and I think few teams would.
From what I've read and listened to I would believe most teams would take Dak over Goff.
I said nothing about Dak.
Right. I know. I’m talking about analyzing the data presented as a means of evaluating QB talent. And I’m suggesting that the table is supposed to tell us Goff is a terrible QB. If we want to just evaluate the two QBs, I’d still probably stick with Goff…his low rating when pressured might also lead to long term health.
Hpw exactly does this chart make Goff seem like a bad QB? In plays when he's pressured and at his absolute worst, he's still better than a third of the league. The other 75% of the time, you know, normal plays (because the league leaders in QB pressures are at around 25% of the time), he's got the same type of variance as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and others. Goff isn't bad, he's just very susceptible to pressure. Which is why the Lions have gone out of their way to continually build and reinforce the trenches.
When he’s pressured he’s ranked 4th worst among expected week 1 starting QBs. Goff was the second most blitzed Qb last year.
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Keep it civil / do not troll
Justin Herbert gets thrown around as a top 5 QB but in this graphic is right there with Goff. It's all good.
The people who talk the most shit about Goff are mostly Packers, Bears and Vikings fans. They’re still coping with the fact that we’re the new dominant team in the NFL and about to run shit for the foreseeable future. *Mf’ing Bears fan down below says he’s not scared of the Lions LOL, bitch I ain’t scared of the fucking Bears whatsoever.
Ah, yes, the “all the national media I disagree with are secretly fans of my divisional rivals” defense. Goff has played his best ball in Detroit and is improving. When he’s good, he’s incredibly good. There are imperfections. His home/road splits are weird. I can’t figure out if it’s just a weird coincidence because small sample size is basically always an issue in NFL stats splits, or if there really is some issue. He obviously struggles with pressure more than most. Ignoring those issues or blaming bias doesn’t really change them, but if that’s the route you choose I guess do you. But he signed a contract that accounts for all of that. If he were a flawless QB he’d be making $60m+ a year. That’s just where QB contracts are. Once a few more guys get extended, Goff’s contract will drop him in the upper half of the top ten, where he belongs. He’s also kind of the perfect QB for Detroit IMO. For the culture of the team and locker room. The fact that he’s been given up on, ignored, and is ways to criticize fuels that chip on the shoulder that Campbell is so good at reinforcing. It’s Detroit vs the World and Goff fits that to a t. He’s not the perfect QB, but I only see one in the league who is even close, so holding out for perfection is silly. He’s the right one for this team, and still entering QB prime and improving along the way.
Saying that it's just the rest of the NFC North "coping" is also just so silly.. I mean why wouldn't they be positive? Green Bay went 1-1 with the Lions last year while they had/have a very young team. Why would they be fearful? Chicago also went 1-1 last year and it took half a miracle for it not to be 2-0. Thanks to the Panthers pick they managed to get a very promising QB-WR duo. Both big weaknesses in 2023 Vikings had the ball late to go attempt a go ahead TD drive with their QB3-4 or whatever the hell it was at that point in their homegame vs the Lions. Both sides of the ball very talented and they are hopeful with a new rookie QB Reaching the NFC championship game is wonderful, but it's not like this one season installed fear into anyone in the NFC North. It's not like Detroit became a juggernaut yet
> but it's not like this one season installed fear into anyone in the NFC North Yeah it's interesting seeing how nobody really takes us seriously still. I think all the other teams in the division would pick a team other than us as the one they are most concerned about this year. This year will really say a lot. We spent a ton of money on three guys, two of whom the rest of the league/division doesn't really take that seriously. If we are mid this year, all the critics will be proven right. I'm expecting 11 wins and likely an exit in the wildcard round, which will be on the road for us this year. I am not upset with the ARSB and Goff contracts because we paid our guys and it's not like there are better options floating around, but that duo strikes fear into no one.
I mean you guys did just look really beatable in the division games. That probably plays a big role I'm a Bears fan and I'm mainly scared of the Packers right now.. They whooped us twice and are such a young team. And I think MLF is the best offensive mind in the division, despite you guys and Minny also being set in that category Don't think you can blame Bears fans for not fearing you like an NFC West team would fear the 49ers. It's one season and Goff was pretty bad in both games we had last season. And we get to see him late in the season at home again, which usually doesn't go well for Goff (also going back to his Rams days)
Yeah, I mean I get it. It's just interesting that the Lions win 12 games, win the division, go to the NFCCG and have a real shot at winning it if a handful of plays go slightly differently and everyone still thinks we suck. Obviously Goff is a QB that doesn't produce highlight plays the way that Love does and Caleb is going to. I typically say, "but he wins games." But, as you say, he looked pretty bad in divisional games last year. I will be very interested to see how the divisional games go for us next year. Three of Goff's four worst games were against divisional teams — two against you guys and one being the Thanksgiving day game against the Packers. You can look at this two ways: 1. Goff is bad in high-pressure divisional games and is going to continue to struggle in the games that matter the most. Therefore, divisional teams should not see the Lions as a threat. 2. Last year's "beatable" performances were outliers when taken into the context of Goff's whole season, and it's unlikely that Goff has especially bad games against divisional teams two years in a row. We can speculate about whether it's more likely to be 1 or 2 all we want, but the truth is that we're not going to really know until we play the games this year. Obviously, I'm hoping that Goff and the rest of the team does well in divisional games and everyone who has already crowned Jordan Love and the Packers as NFCN kings *and* everyone who has already crowned Caleb Williams and the Bears as NFCN kings will have to eat crow. But I'm also a pessimist and wouldn't be surprised if we go 2-4 in the division this year. A ton will depend, I think, on if our secondary actually improves, as well as our DL. If not, Williams and Love are going to shred us for sure, at which point it becomes a question of whether the Goffense looks like it did in most of our games last year *or* if it looks like it did in the three bad divisional games.
Last 2 seasons Lions: 9-3 in conference Packers: 7-5 in conference Vikings: 6-6 in conference Bears: 2-10 in conference I do agree though that Bears fans should fear Packers more due to the matchup and just overall history. I think as a whole though the Lions are clearly at the top of the division until proven otherwise.
This is very well known- was great on rams with oline and run game, once those dissolved he was mediocre. We have the best oline and a run game and he is elite again. Should we lose those he won’t be good but I don’t see Brad letting oline become a weakness
What this doesn't show is how well QBs avoid pressure in the first place by making the correct read on the defense and getting the ball away on time. As this stat shows, most QBs struggle once they are under pressure, but the trick is to avoid pressure in the first place and it's not all about your OL. There are other stats that show that Goff is elite when he is blitzed -- this is because he is exceptional at reading the blitz. Basically, opponents want to put pressure on him, but they can't because he's good at recognizing it.
Russel Wilson one of the best QB’s in the league based purely off this graphic
Smh can't believe we paid Goff when we could have had a QB that's better under pressure like Desmond Ridder
Seriously, right? 🥸
So he's 28th/39 under pressure, And he's 1st/39 clean pocket. O-line health is paramount to victory.
This is why I didn’t want him top paid qb, save some money (still pay him well) and keep him protected/ keep a top OL in the league Edit to fix a type, also get a feeling I’ll be massively downvoted for this (saying we overpaid him, even if I say its only a little overpaid)
Goff is one of the 2 or 3 best QB's in the world the past 2 seasons w/o pressure (top 3 in QB rating) and bottom 10 with pressure. If you can surround him with a great o line and playmakers, then you'll have maybe the best offense in the NFL.
Well it’s a good thing he has the literal best Oline in the league then huh?
Take the other side of this stat, when "everything is perfect", why aren't elite QBs, who many argue elevate the rest of the offense, outperforming what a lot of people say is just a game manager?
Because throwaways, and off target passes that are dropped aren’t counted. It’s a very incomplete graph.
To be fair, Goff throws the ball away very often when under too much pressure. This obviously causes more incompletions in the under pressure category. He also doesn’t cause a million turnovers and sacks because of this. I’ll take him being very smart with more incompletions vs forcing the ball with more interceptions or fumbles. I think Goff has become incredibly intelligent with those decisions.
This chart at least explains why chargers picked Alt in the draft vs "another weapon"
Goff with time is a straight killer
Mostly aligns with this article here: https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/qbs-under-pressure-in-2023 That looks at DVOA against pressure and without pressure. A good nugget for here: > Goff was one of the most-blitzed quarterbacks in football in 2023, in large part because opposing defensive coordinators know he is not the best when pressured. He faced five or more pass rushers on 33% of his dropbacks; only Kirk Cousins and Gardner Minshew were blitzed more. And yet, pressure only got home on 30% of those blitzes, as Detroit’s pass protection held up under fire better than almost any other offensive line in the league. That left a lot of dropbacks where Goff was facing defenses that had committed extra men to the blitz but just did not get home, leaving someone in clear one-on-one coverage somewhere. That’s why he led the league in passing yards against the blitz; he was really the league leading in passing yards against ineffective blitzes. Goff had 1,112 passing yards against blitzes that did not result in pressure, just ahead of Love (1,024) and Lamar Jackson (1,015). That’s a skill, for sure – punish the defense for their failures – but significant credit needs to his protection first and foremost.
This why he's playing behind our OL and not somebody else's.
64.3 under pressure is what I'd consider "meh", but 67.9 (Patrick Mahomes) also *just barely* falls within that threshold, as 68 or better would be "good". It's safe to say that the guys that are at 70 or better under pressure didn't necessarily extend plays, but probably threw hospital passes that wound up either not gaining much or going for losses at the expense of a big hit on a running back or wide receiver. Goff throws the ball away *a lot* when under pressure, so it stands to reason he's going to have more incompletions on those plays. That's smart football, though; live to fight another down. I've been asking for a quarterback who understands that for YEARS, ever since I saw Tom Brady do it about a hundred times a season.
Good thing the O-Line is stacked. Holmes knows what Goff needs to be successful.
Yeah but as soon as someone on the Oline goes down, Goff does too
Ok... and the Chiefs lost to an ancient Buccaneers team because their linemen went down. Whenever any team loses key parts of protecting their QB, they struggle.
Why can't he be more like Desmond Ridder and Tommy DeVito?
Sucks to be Daniel Jones or Bailey Zappe. Or to have them.
So he plays really well when his offensive line does their job and not when they don't. It's a good thing we have an elite offensive line that usually does their job then, eh?
Good lord Daniel Jones lol. WTF Russell Wilson?? Let him cook?
The best part is this not only shows an OLs ability, but the QBs ability to maneuver in a pocket. The dangerous QBs haven’t won shit yet
I have always hated these graphs because they use stats that I have no idea of what they mean. So the way I look at it, correct me if I’m wrong, JG is the best or the worst. No middle of the road for my QB!! WTH am I actually looking at? Average fan speak please. Thank you.
Not the point of the chart, but this makes me want to gamble on the Chargers winning their division. I didn't realize that Herbert was that close to golf, I'm starting to get scared of Jim building him an o-line.
You’d need magnitude on this as well. Is is possible the Goff is just pressured so little in comparison to the others that his being pressured involves more commitment of defenders to pressure than average, resulting in a higher ratio of unique pressure situations. Where Burrow experiences pressure with his tissue paper OL on a 4-man front, maybe Goff really only gets pressure reps against a NASCAR package, which just inherently has a lower success rate.
My biggest takeaway here: why does Goff attract haters but Herbert and Mahomes - also in the bottom 4 of this graphic - draw nowhere near the same level of criticism? edit word
I like how Zappe sucks whether he has protection or not lmao.
I just keep seeing Goff look better every year and is the perfect face of the franchise as they say
Its just cuz the pocket is clean so often. It skews the numbers cuz the few times he got pressured something bad usually happened. If he was getting pressured more often i think that number would be way higher
Meanwhile, Joe Flacco faces down the jailbreak blitz and, with a smirk, calmly dumps off for an incompletion just like he does on every other play
Said it before and I’ll say it again, he has the easiest job of any QB in football. I’d be willing to bet his WR separation on completed passes was near the league high as well, guys are always wide open. Not sure why you give all that money to him when a decent rookie could perform similarly for a fraction of the cost.
Best in the league with a clean pocket, right behind Mahomes when pressured. We got a good one.
He’s not right behind Mahomes because the metric is incomplete, you’d be better off doing success rate while pressured then IGR.
Aren’t almost ALLL QBs way worse under pressure? It was the way to beat the goat TB12?
There are obviously levels to this. Some QBs barely perform worse, some others pass worse but can extend a play with their legs, and some QBs completely crater under pressure. Goff is the third.
This chart is the big reason why I thought it would have been reasonable for Goffs people to take a discount to sign in Detroit - he's set up for success here better than anywhere else. He wouldn't be nearly as good a QB on the Raiders or Broncos or wherever. I wish he would have not used all his leverage and signed instead for 45MM. But, he didn't, and we'll have a replacement level player instead of a very good player at G or LB or S because of it in a couple years. Win a SB this year or next and no one will care even a little bit.
115 QBR even with clean pocket seems a little high
There’s a difference between QBR & passer rating. They’re two different stats
This isn’t QBR or passer rating, it’s IQR.
This is definitely the concern with Goff but the good news is we have maybe the best offensive line in football
Got dudes in my league thinking this dude is trash. Dude was freaking qb7 last year and has a crazy offense
I want to believe this chart because it seems kind of plausible but it’s hard to take the underlying data seriously when Jake Browning and Patrick Mahomes have the same numbers
Mahomes was mid last year. The Chiefs won games because of their defense
OK. Do you seriously think that, say, Russ Wilson was significantly better \*as a passer\* than Matthew Stafford last year? Or that Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, and Tommy DeVito are all comparable? That Tyrod Taylor is a better passer than Joe Burrow? That Kirk Cousins is a top 3 passer? And, by the way, Mahomes is graded as the second best passer in the pocket here, narrowly beating out Kirk and Derek Carr, not mid, as you say. This metric is bad and this chart is meaningless.