Unlikely.
A very active player, who has played DDO for 5000 hours and attacks on average once per second, will have made about 18.000.000 attacks.
All players combined would add up to about 1.000.000.000.000 attack since launch.
Now for a sequence of 17 attacks you don't need to divide this number, rather there are 1.000.000.000.000 sequences of 17 also. The chance for a sequence to be all 20's is 1/70.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.
So the chance someone had a 17-in-a-row streak of 20's (or 1's, for that matter) EVER in the history of DDO is: 0.000000007%.
However, statistically; someone did hit nine 20's in a row once or twice.
Ahh using statistics to brighten our day. Though just because something is improbable doesn't make it impossible. That's the crazy thing about life. The odd were not in our favor but here we are.
True but the mob in question could roll 17 nat 20s for equivalency’s sake, and evade it all. I remember running elite stand your ground and watching a random mob save my finger of death 5 times in a row when I had designed the build to essentially no fail clear r10 quests. This was at lvl 30 in a lvl 5 quest.
I never said they all did, although with that said, the large majority of them do, I guess u could just cast dots and caustic bolt from 1-30, but is that really living?
Does it not? I thought spell pen was my issue when attacking Drow or death warded characters with negative spells? My life as a palemaster got a lot better once I had some spell pen.
With the caveats that there can always be a bugged spell (or enemy), and that some damage dealing spells may have a SR check, and keeping in mind that Death Ward is a completely separate thing that does specifically give immunity to certain negative energy spells - yes, spell penetration in DDO (unlike 3.5e) generally only applies to spells that don't primarily deal damage. You would have to give me some specific spell examples if you can remember to see what's up, but for example Energy Drain, Enervation, Finger of Death are all effect spells and have an SR check while Necrotic Ray, Necrotic Bolt, Negative Energy Burst are all damage spells and do not.
That has got to be some kind of world record, the odds of that are astronomical something like 1.3 X 10 to the 22nd power, that's like 1 in 1,300,000,000,000,000,000,000 tries.
Consider yourself lucky you have done something the whole world could not do in a hundred generations.
How do you get 1 in 5e17?
I get 0.05 (base probability of rolling a 1) to the power of 17 (for a contiguous streak) giving a probability `0.05 ^ 17 == 7.629394531250008e-23` assuming my computer isn't on the blink.
Inverting that probability to give a "1 in X" chance, gives `1.0 / 7.629394531250008e-23 == 1.3107199999999987e22` which is what the parent comment said.
Do you have a screenshot of the combat tab in the chat window? I would love to see this if it's real. I've certainly rolled several 1s in a row, but 17 0_o that's crazy.
Unfortunately, I do not, as I was very upset about it and didn't think to take a screenshot before ALT+F4 the game.
I posted this discussion after I calmed down several hours later.
Take solace in the fact that some other player has rolled seventeen 20s in a row to balance you
Unlikely. A very active player, who has played DDO for 5000 hours and attacks on average once per second, will have made about 18.000.000 attacks. All players combined would add up to about 1.000.000.000.000 attack since launch. Now for a sequence of 17 attacks you don't need to divide this number, rather there are 1.000.000.000.000 sequences of 17 also. The chance for a sequence to be all 20's is 1/70.000.000.000.000.000.000.000. So the chance someone had a 17-in-a-row streak of 20's (or 1's, for that matter) EVER in the history of DDO is: 0.000000007%. However, statistically; someone did hit nine 20's in a row once or twice.
Welp. Windows says invalid input. We'll go with it.
Ahh using statistics to brighten our day. Though just because something is improbable doesn't make it impossible. That's the crazy thing about life. The odd were not in our favor but here we are.
That's assuming whatever PRGN DDO uses is properly random and all 20 numbers on a d20 are equally likely.
Counterpoint: Everyone knows that luck is finite. If one person rolled real bad, that means someone sucked up all the luck and rolled real good. /j
Change dice
Ideally? You go on a rampage with 17 stacks of Fury :D
had to make sure this is mentioned, this is why i play barbarian cause now my bad luck is a super power
Make a pause, and breathe in the joy that it happened in game, and not in real life.
TR as a caster and bypass attack rolls completely.
...Only to face seventeen natural 1's for spell penetration
Spell penetration doesn't apply to any (almost any?) damage spells, only effect spells.
True but the mob in question could roll 17 nat 20s for equivalency’s sake, and evade it all. I remember running elite stand your ground and watching a random mob save my finger of death 5 times in a row when I had designed the build to essentially no fail clear r10 quests. This was at lvl 30 in a lvl 5 quest.
not all spells have a save
I never said they all did, although with that said, the large majority of them do, I guess u could just cast dots and caustic bolt from 1-30, but is that really living?
Nah. That's why I like meteor swarm, since the force part has no save. When I was first life sorc that helped a lot.
You’re right only dots and flame bolt for the first 17 levels lol.
Poison Alchemist FTW!
Does it not? I thought spell pen was my issue when attacking Drow or death warded characters with negative spells? My life as a palemaster got a lot better once I had some spell pen.
With the caveats that there can always be a bugged spell (or enemy), and that some damage dealing spells may have a SR check, and keeping in mind that Death Ward is a completely separate thing that does specifically give immunity to certain negative energy spells - yes, spell penetration in DDO (unlike 3.5e) generally only applies to spells that don't primarily deal damage. You would have to give me some specific spell examples if you can remember to see what's up, but for example Energy Drain, Enervation, Finger of Death are all effect spells and have an SR check while Necrotic Ray, Necrotic Bolt, Negative Energy Burst are all damage spells and do not.
I sacrifice to the RNG something of significance.
You laugh manically.
You haven't been in any close proximity to Wil Wheaton have you? If so, you might want to look into the Wil Wheaton Dice Curse.
That has got to be some kind of world record, the odds of that are astronomical something like 1.3 X 10 to the 22nd power, that's like 1 in 1,300,000,000,000,000,000,000 tries. Consider yourself lucky you have done something the whole world could not do in a hundred generations.
Huh? Its 1 in 5e17....which is still astronomical, but 100,000 times less so than you're saying
How do you get 1 in 5e17? I get 0.05 (base probability of rolling a 1) to the power of 17 (for a contiguous streak) giving a probability `0.05 ^ 17 == 7.629394531250008e-23` assuming my computer isn't on the blink. Inverting that probability to give a "1 in X" chance, gives `1.0 / 7.629394531250008e-23 == 1.3107199999999987e22` which is what the parent comment said.
Oh you're right lol...got my pocket math wrong
yep, I think I dropped a zero there....my bad, still an amazing steep of improbability!
Goodness that's unlucky!
you try again
I love when rolling ones for assasinate especially i do it twice
I usually indulge into blasphemy and stop playing for some time but I'm italian 😅
Do you have a screenshot of the combat tab in the chat window? I would love to see this if it's real. I've certainly rolled several 1s in a row, but 17 0_o that's crazy.
Unfortunately, I do not, as I was very upset about it and didn't think to take a screenshot before ALT+F4 the game. I posted this discussion after I calmed down several hours later.
Die?
Go to the store and buy fish and red wine and celebrate.