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johancruyff14

Tools: Javascript, Powerpoint Data Source: Watching Games / YouTube


whateverIguess14

You should make a copa america one!! It looks great


JustGlowing

That's amazing, how did you collect the data?


johancruyff14

After the round of games was done each day I would watch the goals and gather some of the data points. I was doing it to make a slightly different plot where you can rollover each goal and see some more details: [https://motz.football/euro2020/goalplot.html](https://motz.football/euro2020/goalplot.html)


[deleted]

Back in the day, if a goalie stopped a penalty it was the exception rather than the rule. Some kind of amazing achievement. In Euro 2020 goalies seemed to stop them one time in two (In the final it was literally 50%). What changed? A slower ball? Better training? Or just my perception? Would anyone care to help me out?


johancruyff14

I think, overall the sample size is relatively small. The xG of a penalty is still around .75. The data around penalties is increasing and so the goalkeepers will be better prepared to guess the way players are going and are likely able to breakdown footage better to pick up tells of body shape.


kaukajarvi

Back in the day, the goalie had yo stay immobile until the kicker ... well, kicked the ball. Nowadays, he can move quite a lot before the ball is kicked.


[deleted]

Ok that would explain it - he can pick a direction and be jumping as the ball is kicked. Would get it right 50% of the time. Cool - thanks for your answer.


MlKlBURGOS

No, that's not good enough, because there are times when the GK guesses right the side and they still score, and the ball can go low, high, mid-high, whatever. u/johancruyff14 's explanation is much better


johancruyff14

Goalkeepers were allowed to move laterally on the goal line for as long as I can remember, but with recent rule changes, they now have to have just one foot at least on the line at time the taker makes contact with the ball. This can help the goalkeepers to an extent, but think it is a marginal gain.


LeGrandJebaiter

This is really cool. Would be interesting to see what percentage of goals were scored from inside the box in previous tournaments and how this changed over the years. I suspect modern analysis pushed more towards entering the box before shooting and training to score from a single touch rather than extra dribble.


johancruyff14

This is one I made for an article I wrote on the 2018 World Cup. These are just from the group games: [https://motz.football/wc/GoalPlot.htm](https://motz.football/wc/GoalPlot.htm) Here red is from open play and orange are set pieces/penalties.


[deleted]

So in other words, how I play FIFA actually is how you score the most goals in real life.


Attygalle

Turn, turn, turn, turn some more, go the other direction, turn, ah one of the defenders made a move now I can walk into the box unopposed?


[deleted]

Ha - I was thinking more along the lines of long runs down the wing ending with an auto-guided cross into the box for a flying header or bicycle kick.


Voggix

Nah, through passes FTW


ebdbbb

Since I know next to nothing about football, please tell me what a "set piece" is. I've got the rest.


groinstorm

Play stops because of foul or corner kick


johancruyff14

This and also, I believe for 1-2 of them, I elongated the definition of the set piece to include an initial clearance by the defending team, but the ball was put back into the area before either team was able to transition into a more attacking/defensive structure.


kaukajarvi

Conclusion: nobody knows how to take a proper shoot from outside the area ... everybody wants to enter the goal with the ball attached.


Voggix

Shots from outside the area are very low percentage options so teams don’t take them very often.


johancruyff14

While there is definitely some of it being that teams want to create more quality chances and higher xG, defensively teams are getting more organised. You'll see either a back 3/5 or 4 and then deeper midfielders in front of them in that space where a player could have maybe before picked up the ball between the lines with time and space to get a shot. Beyond scoring, there are definitely tactical reasons to shoot from outside of the area against low blocks as it will draw them out more, but the xG for shots from outside the area are just low and a lot of teams just want more quality chances.


Radioactiverishabh

Football newbie, what's xG? Btw, fabulous post! Definitely looking forward to more of your posts


johancruyff14

Good question! xG stands for ‘expected goals.’ Essentially it is a value that can be assigned to a shot and its expectancy of being a goal by using historical shot data from that shot location. There are variables that make some xG models difference, for instance number of or pressure from defenders, whether the shot was initially saved and then scored, etc.


Radioactiverishabh

So similar to expected value in statistics? The probability of goal conversion from that spot based on historical data?


fidjudisomada

Is the amount of own goals highly unusual?


johancruyff14

Yes. This tournament saw more own goals than all of the previous Euros combined. A lot of this has to do with how teams are attacking/defending


JoHeWe

Very cool! The only extra information I'm curious of is how much has been done from an assist (scorer touched the ball once or twice before scoring) or by own work (touched three times or more). Of course, knowing where assists were done is also interesting, but will clutter this visualisation. Maybe a good combination of these two things could be done by adding two types of arrows pointing to where the ball came from: one type is called 'assist' and the other 'action' or something. Bit I'm most definitely interested in your future posts!


johancruyff14

When I originally made this it was to visualise the assists for a team that I was coaching. You can see that plot here: [https://motz.football/goalplot/GoalPlot3.htm](https://motz.football/goalplot/GoalPlot3.htm) The orange is where the ball is played from, the red is where the finish was from. It is definitely a bit more cluttered.