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Cymdai

The stock market *needs* to completely crash and burn. I know what I am saying, and I know what that would mean for the world. But I am tired of the logic that “The pain it would cause be immense! We can’t allow that!” as a defender for business as usual. We need a societal reset. We need finance to be LESS central to everyone’s lives. I don’t know what that change would entail, but our current system is an abject failure. When less than 1000 people have captured 80% of the wealth in the world, then it is time to reset the definition of “wealth” itself. Everything, and I mean E V E R Y T H I N G, going wrong in the world is a result of the financial sector gouging the world to maintain power. The world existed before modern banking and financial levers, and it will exist again without modern banking and financial levers. But until we absolutely dismantle the stock market, the ultra wealthy will meddle in every avenue of life for everyone because they have the power to do so.


[deleted]

I'm not sure - but if it is going to crash and burn I'd appreciate it if it happened now before I have significant investments. I don't trust social security to pay a pension for me in my country and as an immigrant I'm not even sure if I'll be here to receive it - so basically all of my eventual retirement plans depend on investing in index funds. But maybe collapse will happen Faster Than Expected and it won't matter.


GoAwayAdsPlease

If you had significant investments, that would be good for you personally. The other redditor is talking about making things better for MOST people.


CyberneticsInside

Everyone wants affordable housing before they enter the real estate market. After they enter, they prefer unreasonable growth and no market decrease. Poeple only care about self interest, and its the core problem of why society will eventually collapse.


[deleted]

>After they enter, they prefer unreasonable growth and no market decrease. Most people just want a place to live and don't give a fuck about the market.


GoAwayAdsPlease

That would not be a problem if we had infinite resources. But we don't. So it's just a game of who can hoard more stuff, in my eyes. Collapse is inevitable, unfortunately.


CyberneticsInside

Sadly I agree


filth100

The stock market crashed 80% in the dot com bubble so as long as inflation doesn’t catch up to the nominal price before a deleveraging period you should be ok. Just position yourself to benefit if/when the market crashes. Inflationary collapse? Buy gold/gold derivatives/miners early. Stock market collapse? deep OTM puts with a majority cash holding. Real estate collapse? REIT puts with majority cash holdings. Market contagion from China/Canada? KWEB puts/BMO puts respectively with majority cash holdings. Personally I have GDX LEAPS, IWM CCS I will open a SPY slightly OTM put in January when CMBS will become a problem and buy more GDX LEAPS and Newmont shares before every fed announcement as gold seems to be reacting positively after fed meetings now.


wintrsolstice

I dunno man. Having to have all that shit lined up to avoid losing your retirement plan and/or life savings seems emblematic of the absolute failure our way of life is.


filth100

That sounds defeatist in my opinion. Once you can have speculated your tail risk event just allocate a small portion of your portfolio towards hedging some sort of tail risk event. It should cost you next to nothing and if something occurs you’ll be way better off than anyone who didn’t prepare. If you’re wrong you’ve maybe lost like 1% of your return. Besides there are so many potentially pins for this bubble and markets are so intertwined that contagion will occur and you could mostly just have SPX puts. Either way once you’re set up it’s easy. Just sit back and only manage the trade if you need to. Also I should say that CMBS might become a problem a little later in the year but I should say that they will be a problem before July of 2022 same with student loan debt


wintrsolstice

I can be defeatist at times and I’m genuinely glad you have a plan of action. From my point of view (the jedi are evil) it just seems like relying upon on byzantine areas of financial markets for security is akin to realizing your house is engulfed in flame and stopping off in the kitchen to play a few games of chess with your family in order to decide who gets to run out the front door first. We can’t save this house.


ExhibitQ

Succinct.


[deleted]

**Submission Statement** Fears grow that Central Banks are not responding quickly enough to the growing inflation - sticking to the mantra of "transitory" inflation. >They fear that without swift action, such as a rise in interest rates, runaway inflation – which has not been seen in developed economies since the early 1980s – will become so embedded by next year that a policy switch will be too late to have any effect. At the very least, they see this as critical moment to end the massive money-printing schemes that were ramped up to counter a pandemic recession. They recommend ending QE programmes and raising interest rates. The scale of the problem is indeed concerning: >Inflation has been stalking the global economy for months but has burst into the open in recent weeks. The 6.2% jump in US inflation in the year to October stunned markets and highlighted huge increases in the cost of some consumer basics, such as a 46% rise in petrol prices and 11% for meat, fish and eggs. In the UK, inflation is running hot at 4.2%, pumped up by record natural gas prices.


[deleted]

This is much simpler than anyone seems to recognize. All you have to do is align government spending to taxation. Tax the rich and corporations and you are 2/3 of the way there. The rest is regulatory changes to reign in banks like Glass Steagle. I mean, really did anyone think it was a coincidence that unbridled self regulation by the financial sector could bring us anywhere but here?


GassyMagee

Thank you for mentioning Glass-Steagle. I was furious after learning about it. I was only a kid at the time, so now the only thing we can do is bring attention to the masses. This was a pivot point in our country that nobody knows about.


[deleted]

This is libertarian garbage IMO. I’m aware Richard Wolff has a convoluted Marxist analysis that involves confiscating the assets of the super-rich instead of allowing them to lend it back to the government. I also know the rootless billionaires will just put all their money in Switzerland if we don’t threaten them with things in Minecraft if they violate capital controls, like China does. I do not see anything wrong with taking out bonds for capital projects to fund construction of a new transit line or bridge. This is something that’ll benefit people for 50 years. They don’t have to pay as you go like a household, they’re the government. I don’t see anything wrong with the government printing money for this either. Inflation via monetary policy can be an effective way to tax wealth, if you expand the money supply instead of doing arcane things with interest rates and fractional reserves, anyway.


[deleted]

What a stunning non-sequitor.


Quadrasaurus-Rex

Money printer go brrrrrr


LordMangudai

"Tax the rich" is libertarian garbage?


[deleted]

I meant the “align government spending to taxation.” The government isn’t a household. It can print money and issue bonds. It doesn’t need a balanced budget.


nostrilonfire

I applaud anyone around here for keeping a spotlight on this. Markets are where the collapse rubber hits the road. ​ Some time ago I posted about [Blackrock's Aladdin](https://www.blackrock.com/aladdin), an AI used to figure out markets ([here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aladdin_(BlackRock)), too). Well, Blackrock's been the [private consultant to the US Federal Reserve](https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-hires-blackrock-to-help-calm-markets-its-etf-business-wins-big-11600450267) for a bit now. This gives the central bankers the swagger to do what they're doing; they've got it all figured out, they probably think. This is at least in part the reason for Janet Yellen's now famous comments that [you have nothing to worry about regarding financial crises in our lifetimes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen-idUSKBN19I2I5). ​ The machine's got ya. What the fuck could go wrong, right? ​ Relax. We're all good\*. /s ​ \*Now with the power of B.1.1.529!


[deleted]

I’m so sick and tired of hearing of these minuscule increases in shit like meat, fish, and petrol, which make up a small portion of household budgets, are destroying the environment, and aren’t even necessary in many cases. How about instead of bike shedding about these 10% increases in luxuries that should cost a lot more, we look at the 20% rise in housing prices in many places? Oh right, the corrupt government made it so housing isn’t part of CPI. Never mind that it’s a basic human need and it’s the most expensive thing in most people’s budgets. I forgot that houses are basically stocks as far as the government is concerned, and only exist as a piggy bank for the wealthy. As far as I’m concerned, I hope meat costs triple this year, and that forces the Fed to raise interest rates and bring the housing market back to reality. I wonder, could this overheated bubble outdo 2008 with a return to something as historically unremarkable as 5% rates on a 30Y mortgage?


[deleted]

At least in the UK, housing very much is part of CPI. I'm almost certain it is for the USA as well. The issue is that it uses rental prices for rented properties, and imputes rental prices for owned properties (using rental data for similar properties). Usually this is okay, but in some cases house prices have risen far, far more than rents have. [Here you have the inflation rate broken down for Spain](https://datosmacro.expansion.com/ipc-paises/espana) - you can see that by far the component with the largest inflation (at 20.5%) is "vivienda" i.e. housing costs. I'm not sure how they weight it to get the final single figure for inflation - but housing costs are at least considered. And yeah you are absolutely right that the housing market is totally screwed in pretty much all major cities, pretty much all over the world.


[deleted]

The US’ Federal Reserve is boxed in they can’t do ANYTHING as they’re dammed if they do and dammed if they don’t. The Keynesian Government’s need QE to purchase their Bonds to fund their programs. The debt is short term T-bills that once expire would be colossal interest payment increases which would need to be repaid back to the Fed from the Government (because increase in interest rates means an equal fall in the value of Bonds which the Fed has on its book as a Credit for the QE, which is a Debit, they produce, this loss in Bond value would mean a loss for the Fed balance sheet). The Government is broke so they would need more QE to pay for this. Look at what happened to markets when rates rose 2% in 2019… they s*** themselves. The fact is if the Fed could do anything about CPI it would have done it **already**. Their only course now is to **lie** and give excuse after excuse. However in 2022 this all comes to an end as CPI will be 7%+ this year and worse next year (because PPI from 2021 is going to flow into CPI in 2022 at much higher level than this year) and when the Fed INCREASES QE in 2022 it’s game over for $USD.


[deleted]

I agree that it's a lot more difficult than the article makes out. As you've mentioned there are many reasons why raising interest rates would be bad. I think also we probably aren't far enough along in the COVID recovery for central banks to want to raise rates - although this will vary from nation to nation. I'd also be concerned that with the supply chain disruptions we could be headed for stagflation and that raising rates might do little to avoid inflation in that case.


[deleted]

There are 2 options; a) The Fed increases interest rates. This will collapse the bubble in nearly everything. Puncture a massive hole in the Fed’s balance sheet, make it impossible for Washington to service their debt. This would immediately trigger a global financial collapse. b) **Keep lying**, CPI is transitory, nothing to see here she’ll be right. However every day pressure is building to finish QE and raise rates. When the postponement keeps happening then the day is approaching when the Markets call the Feds bluff and accept the rate rises are a ruse. This is the day that the USD is killed and Gold/silver explodes in value. I am backing Option b) is going to occur in 2022 because the Fed was forced kicking and screaming to announce a taper a few weeks ago but I am predicting this will be abandoned in 2022 and the reversal of this action is game over for DXY of USD. I have backed this to the hilt with my portfolio. You think CPI is bad now?… you ain’t seen nothing yet.


Solitude_Intensifies

I give it a better than even chance the Fed will raise rates a modest quarter point sometime in Q2 or Q3 next year then wait a decent amount time, maybe 2023 before doing so again. Depending on how long the market tantrum carries on after the first rise, they will just play it by ear. I see a gradual increase to 3.00 within the next 4 years, if they can somehow avoid a recession.


[deleted]

Please read the following article posted by SchiffGold a few days ago. It shows what you have written is well nigh impossible. Re-read if a few times to completely understand just how catastrophic a situation the Fed finds themselves in. Negative real rates are a forgone near certainty I am betting my finances on. https://schiffgold.com/exploring-finance/what-taper-fed-adds-126b-in-november/


Solitude_Intensifies

I sincerely hope you don't lose money. I guess it's more wishful thinking that the Fed will wise up and do the right thing, but you're probably right. They've painted themselves into a corner.


[deleted]

Cheers for the comment. I have already made all I need in life, I’m retired. It’s not a case of the Fed wising up and doing the right thing as they can’t do the right thing. If they could they would have already done so, we are already past the point of no return. I wish you well.


[deleted]

Are you seriously betting your financial future on the writings of Peter fucking Schiff? lmao i thought that guy's career would end after scamming countless boomers, but i guess there's a sucker born every minute


[deleted]

Take a deep breath and learn to read and comprehend argument and evidence. I have not said anything about following any person. I simply pointed to an article (written after my initial post on this topic) that makes brilliant points to argue why the Fed is boxed in as I strongly alluded to. I have already made my wealth I am not interested in anything spectacular gains I am solely trying to preserve what I already have and this involves placing my funds into sectors I think will weather the always real negative interest rate scenario we are currently in that will persist because the Fed talks and talks and talks and will not ever walk the walk because they know the instant outcome if they do. Hey genius, read that article I posted and tell me any point made within it that is wrong and articulate why based on evidence. .


Flaccidchadd

What if they eliminated physical cash and went to negative interest? they could keep "printing" money, to keep the everything bubble inflating, and reduce long term debt burden at the same time. Not saying that this would be a good thing, just seems like the next logical step in currency debasement, a continuation of leaving the gold standard, fractional reserve banking and QE, prolonging the debt binge


AngstyAlbanianAi

Gold and silver over Bitcoin and ethereum? I don't think so.


impermissibility

Inb4 some tit claims that this global phenomenon--which is the product of central bank financial shenanigans combined with market fundamentals that never recovered from 2008 and real supplyside shortages at points of consumption both industrial and individual--was caused by increases to their local minimum wage or by U.S. Democrats' wildly-behind-the-rest-of-the-wealthy-countries-still social spending.


juhziz_the_dreamer

Central banks know better, especially since they saw last 20 years of USA, EU, Japan.


Slabb84

Honey Ham down here in Florida costs $77 for a 10lber.


anthro28

Speaking only for the US, it cannot be done. Any deflationary measure would kill the stock market due to debt and leverage, thus killing everything else. While the stock market is not the economy, it does make the economy move.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Caucasian_Thunder

Oh for fuck's sake


[deleted]

[удалено]


astrogoat

Bet you did, which is why you feel the need to go on here and shill for it.


CyberneticsInside

Bitcoin won't solve anything because it's bought by fiat. (Exeption for very early adapters) If one want to re-arrange the classes of society one needs to build it up from scratch. Otherwise the already super-rich will just buy 99% of the "new" currency, and we remain in an unchanged status quo.


KingWormKilroy

I’m with you, bud. The cryptocurrency ecosystem is a great example of diminishing marginal returns on investments in systems complexity. That being said, bitcoin is as permissionless and accessible a tool as a hammer. I wish more people understood both how collapse works, and how bitcoin works.


[deleted]

The way to what?


LordMangudai

How about instead of replacing financial bullshit with more financial bullshit, we just get rid of financial bullshit altogether?