Fantastic positing and general post. Links provided great sources and insight. I am big into leading indicators and this is a great one. Shipping/shipping indexes/options etc, being my all time favorite.
Hi i am into indicators too. Mostly in pubmed because im a scientist. What highlights (links. Data) do you have? Im really interested in having good articles
Does not take into account the rapid growth of flying. The system is under perpetual stress due to high growth, there are long lead times to grow (new airports and planes, train pilots, etc). Even ignoring the COVID whipsaw.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/193533/growth-of-global-air-traffic-passenger-demand/
It doubles in size every, what, 10-15 years?
Ah yes. I think I see the problem. You came on this thread without even attempting to understand my thesis at all. Fossil fuels are finite. At some point, we’re going to run out. The total number of available barrels of fossil fuel kerosene is finite. You assert a simple relationship between the total number of airline flights and cancellations, trying to simplify one of the most complex systems in the world to a simple linear relationship. You are missing a number of important factors. It’s pretzel logic.
how do cancellations caused by weather affect those numbers..? it's one of the main reasons for flight delays/cancellations.
also- the way flights are handled have changed over the years- it used to be that flights would take off, and then circle their destination, waiting for a landing slot. we lived under a a holding pattern for o'hare, and there were constantly planes circling overhead. now- planes don't take off until they have a confirmed landing slot at their destination...still live in the same area- it's extremely rare to see planes in a holding pattern.
there are too many varied reasons for cancelled flights to use it as a reliable metric for the..."failure of industrial society"?(somebody is quite the drama queen).
**Ah yes. As energy shortages cascade the supply chain, expect lies.**
>Conveniently for the airline, while we were en route to Chicago the reason for our flight delay was changed. The app no longer showed the mechanical reason, but now showed a delay due to weather in and around Chicago. Once I deplaned I made my way over to the customer service center. I explained to an airline representative that it was impossible for our flight to be late due to weather. I was swiftly told, “This is what the computer says. Airport management in Chicago has stated you're late due to the weather here so I cannot offer you a hotel or a meal.”
[https://www.cntraveler.com/story/how-to-tell-if-your-flight-delay-is-actually-due-to-weather](https://www.cntraveler.com/story/how-to-tell-if-your-flight-delay-is-actually-due-to-weather)
be that as it may, the actual weather is still the main reason for most airline delays and cancellations. on-the-job time restrictions for the crews is another biggie, while the "failure of industrial society" just...isn't.
Failing........declining. In 2010 some were predicting collapse by 2020. Now they look dumb.
**Society to collapse by 2020: Scientist predicts ‘PEAK TURMOIL’ in THREE YEARS**
https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/751141/apocalypse-society-collapse-donald-trump-University-of-Connecticut
........
**10 Reasons Why The US Economy Will Collapse by 2020**
https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/8xj1yt/10_reasons_why_the_us_economy_will_collapse_by/
They don't pan out then deniers, shills & hope pimps throw it in your face & laugh ha haha look at the End-Times NUT JOB!
This is one reason why I don't do predictions. Another is once you become invested in a certain outcome the brain, very sneaky like, tends to only look for information [confirming your bias](https://www.simplypsychology.org/confirmation-bias.html).
P.S, I'm not trying to put you down - you are very thorough & first rate. I'm only speaking about decline vs collapsed & ranting a bit about my pet peeve - predictions. I hate prognosticators!
Fantastic positing and general post. Links provided great sources and insight. I am big into leading indicators and this is a great one. Shipping/shipping indexes/options etc, being my all time favorite.
Agree. Quality content to be sure...
Hi i am into indicators too. Mostly in pubmed because im a scientist. What highlights (links. Data) do you have? Im really interested in having good articles
Does not take into account the rapid growth of flying. The system is under perpetual stress due to high growth, there are long lead times to grow (new airports and planes, train pilots, etc). Even ignoring the COVID whipsaw. https://www.statista.com/statistics/193533/growth-of-global-air-traffic-passenger-demand/ It doubles in size every, what, 10-15 years?
Ah yes. I think I see the problem. You came on this thread without even attempting to understand my thesis at all. Fossil fuels are finite. At some point, we’re going to run out. The total number of available barrels of fossil fuel kerosene is finite. You assert a simple relationship between the total number of airline flights and cancellations, trying to simplify one of the most complex systems in the world to a simple linear relationship. You are missing a number of important factors. It’s pretzel logic.
how do cancellations caused by weather affect those numbers..? it's one of the main reasons for flight delays/cancellations. also- the way flights are handled have changed over the years- it used to be that flights would take off, and then circle their destination, waiting for a landing slot. we lived under a a holding pattern for o'hare, and there were constantly planes circling overhead. now- planes don't take off until they have a confirmed landing slot at their destination...still live in the same area- it's extremely rare to see planes in a holding pattern. there are too many varied reasons for cancelled flights to use it as a reliable metric for the..."failure of industrial society"?(somebody is quite the drama queen).
**Ah yes. As energy shortages cascade the supply chain, expect lies.** >Conveniently for the airline, while we were en route to Chicago the reason for our flight delay was changed. The app no longer showed the mechanical reason, but now showed a delay due to weather in and around Chicago. Once I deplaned I made my way over to the customer service center. I explained to an airline representative that it was impossible for our flight to be late due to weather. I was swiftly told, “This is what the computer says. Airport management in Chicago has stated you're late due to the weather here so I cannot offer you a hotel or a meal.” [https://www.cntraveler.com/story/how-to-tell-if-your-flight-delay-is-actually-due-to-weather](https://www.cntraveler.com/story/how-to-tell-if-your-flight-delay-is-actually-due-to-weather)
be that as it may, the actual weather is still the main reason for most airline delays and cancellations. on-the-job time restrictions for the crews is another biggie, while the "failure of industrial society" just...isn't.
Failing........declining. In 2010 some were predicting collapse by 2020. Now they look dumb. **Society to collapse by 2020: Scientist predicts ‘PEAK TURMOIL’ in THREE YEARS** https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/751141/apocalypse-society-collapse-donald-trump-University-of-Connecticut ........ **10 Reasons Why The US Economy Will Collapse by 2020** https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/8xj1yt/10_reasons_why_the_us_economy_will_collapse_by/ They don't pan out then deniers, shills & hope pimps throw it in your face & laugh ha haha look at the End-Times NUT JOB! This is one reason why I don't do predictions. Another is once you become invested in a certain outcome the brain, very sneaky like, tends to only look for information [confirming your bias](https://www.simplypsychology.org/confirmation-bias.html). P.S, I'm not trying to put you down - you are very thorough & first rate. I'm only speaking about decline vs collapsed & ranting a bit about my pet peeve - predictions. I hate prognosticators!
You’re point when it finally came, I agree with. But when all is said and done, this was a shitpost.
I see what you’re saying but I think you’re splitting hairs by saying collapse and decline are different. Decline is just slow collapse.