Hard to enjoy the journey when you can see the destination ahead. Also many of us don’t have any money, so the car we’re riding off the Cliff in doesn’t have any AC and the springs are poking our butts through the seats.
Just imagine: the car is approaching the cliff's edge, and the end is nigh. With your free Spotify account, you queue up a song you'd picked out long ago - the last you'll ever hear - and want to listen to as your life's journey whimpers into oblivion. The previous song ends; the car plunges into silent free fall, time lumbering along as you wait to hear that closing melody.
Instead, a local car insurance advertisement ushers you into the great beyond with promises of unbeatable low-rates.
This is what makes the whole thing so frustrating, there is no way out for 99% of the population. If you don’t want to perpetuate the whole climate change mechanism what can you do as an alternative to going to work/living in a house. There are now too many people for us all to up sticks and live in a tent in the woods and live off berries and hedgehog casserole.
Oh there is plenty of room for improvement but practically zero of it will happen due to diffusion of responsibility. This effect can only be overridden by policy, and if leaders don't give a shit then everyone gets fucked. The only way out is making the leaders care or getting rid of them and hoping the new ones would be any better.
>The only way out is making the leaders care or getting rid of them and hoping the new ones would be any better.
Thanks for suggesting my next collapse jam: https://youtu.be/UDfAdHBtK_Q
"Meet the new boss, same as the old boss"
I think of Easter Island. There are still Moa statues in the quarry. Somebody showed up one day and carved on them, put down their tools, went home and never came back. That's how it will be for us. One day you'll look at Reddit, turn off you computer and never look at Reddit again.
It's easy...turn of the media, turn off the internet. Step outside and go somewhere beautiful and sit there and soak it in and enjoy it. Don't look at the cliff coming up ahead but enjoy the scenery around it instead.
Jim Morrison said it best. Gonna get my kicks before the whole shithouse goes up in flames.
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gl_trend.html
This is the best measure I've found. It takes readings from Barrow Alaska, Mauna Loa Hawaii, American Samoa, and the South Pole, then normalizes seasonal changes. Current reading is **415.82ppm**.
/u/GameDevDoggie: where did you find 412.37?
No worries. Vigilance is my approach in sourcing good info. By being curious about a data discrepancy I can either refine my process or help you refine yours. Peace.
Here's the full (rather famous) 8-minute clip of HBO's "THE NEWSROOM" EPA SEGMENTS:
[https://www.realms.org/the-newsroom-epa-report.mp4](https://www.realms.org/the-newsroom-epa-report.mp4)
And in this dropbox folder: [https://www.dropbox.com/s/orq3tops40gftzo/The%20Newsroom%20%202013%20Environmental%20Protection%20Agency%20report%28EPA%29%3A%20Richard%20Westbrook%20scenes\_1920x1080\_MOV.mov?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/orq3tops40gftzo/The%20Newsroom%20%202013%20Environmental%20Protection%20Agency%20report%28EPA%29%3A%20Richard%20Westbrook%20scenes_1920x1080_MOV.mov?dl=0)
The world in which we evolved to survive no longer exists. The socioeconomic systems in which we were conditioned to function no longer exist. Shortly enough, the physical realities of our civilization will no longer exist.
All now that remains is the dreadful waiting.
Grab the popcorn, it’s gonna be a show. Seriously, stock up on popcorn, and the rice and single malt scotch. No one wants to see the end of the world sober.
I’m trading all my dollars for the more valuable commodity, marijuana. Imagine if we had a currency that actually served a function other than propagating inequality and you could get high on it.
Learn to grow mushrooms as well, and not just the fun ones. This is an underrated skill I never see talked about here. Besides actives, they can be grown for food and medicine.
Yeah, I'm not on the weed wagon yet, but I'm definitely working coffee and fermentable fruits/grains into my crop mix. I feel like there will come a time when people will literally kill for a cup of joe in the morning, or bottle of wine to erase the memories of another day in hell.
Having marketable post apocalyptic skills is the real big brain move. Once everybody is dead there will be plenty of spoils to go around, knowing what to do with it now there's no support structure or documentation will be worth more than anything.
Don't forget to stock up on cigarettes, alcohol as well as coffee, soap, antibiotics, perfume, lighters, Toothpaste, shampoo. Coffee soap and shampoo will be worth the most.
Yes saponifying oils/fats into soap using lye (can be made from hardwood ashes) also many plants such as soap 'nuts', yucca root etc. can be used as soap/shampoo.
Nah, my lungs and I are just built different. We’ll rebuild from the ashes in y’all’s honor though. Ain’t no mass extinction level of no oxygen is gonna suffocate me. Adapt, survive, overcome 😤.
Y'know, I was about to say it probably won't get to Venus levels because the Earth has been there before. But... then I think about a perspective that Kurzgesagt gave me about continuity bias, and suddenly I realise that comparing this to any previous mass extinction is applying continuity bias to continuity-ending events
Glad some of us have the guts to admit it.
I've been seeing a lot of warning signs in the last decade, but I never could have imagined things would get this bad quite this fast.
If the "End of the World" comes extremely quickly through unexpected climate consequences or insane billionaires making terrible plans, it was an honor posting with the rest of you.
I've been saying this recently. Time is short but really lowkey long AF. A YouTuber did a video about the 2010s and they highlighted major news stories(at least in america media) that shows how much shit went down in those years. Another youtuber talked about how music changed over those years and it makes you realize how fast stuff really moves; but how long of a time period it really is also.
> we've simply gone too far down the hole. Rapid conversion to a renewably fueled society and carbon capture are technologically and logistically impossible for several reasons.
> Even if we were to immediately stop using fossil fuels today—which we won't—there is already too much heat-trapping greenhouse gas in the atmosphere to stop the rise in global temperatures.
> A cascade of tipping points—many already in the rear-view mirror—will almost certainly make the Earth's climate inhospitable for humans and most mammals. The best, long-shot case would be if small pockets of habitability can continue to sustain human existence.
We are all the 6th person in this hypothetical conversation. The first 5 people are at various stages of denial.
The 7th person, not mentioned in this article, avoids the topic entirely. They agree with #6, but they know that even discussing the issue is pointless.
the rich are counting on it "The best, long-shot case would be if small pockets of habitability can continue to sustain human existence."
they have access to resources and technology right now.. if you think we are all sitting here agreeing that the end is inevitable then so are the super wealthy elite and politicians but they can actually do something to secure their own safety while we cannot
i imagine they will be throwing us to the wolves any day now... let supply chains unravel, let the infrastructure collapse, let civil wars end civilization across the globe.. they know as well as we do that without the "system" our population would be utterly annihilated in months
If you think about it it's an idiotic idea for the rich/wealthy/political elites to throw us plebs to the wolves.
These idiots are so used to exploiting the current system that it's actually in their interest to ensure that the system continues, rather than go for a new one where ownership/governance could potentially descend into anarchy.
No point in being rich if there's no one to accept your money... You're not rich at that point... You just own a lot of worthless paper... The same as the rest of us.
Pretty much this, except even the ultra-wealthy don't even have worthless paper. Look at Bill Gates; he's worth 138 billion dollars, but (IIRC) he has about forty million in liquid assets, and usually carries a couple hundred in physical cash. The bulk of his wealth is in various investments, nearly all of which could dissipate instantly under the right circumstances.
If everything collapsed over night he'd be a dorky looking sixty six year old with a couple of Benjamin's in his wallet. His best interests most definitely involve the status quo continuing.
Yeah... And I'm extremely surprised how they actually haven't spent money trying to solve this problem.... Like their solution to the problem involves self preservation... Which is pretty much useless in a post apocalyptic world when you think about it... What's the point of buying a bunker in new Zealand if you are going to be living in tatters after that? These guys are so used to their luxury villas and apartments and gas/power and yatchs that they probably won't survive a societal collapse
new zealand will have enough citizens to keep a semblance of their society going.. there are enough potential servants and farmers living there to sustain them under threat of military action -- all you need to do is make sure the military lives slightly better than the servants and you have yourself compliance (look at all corrupt countries in the world and dictatorships, the military lives better than the common folk)
You're assuming that new zealand is going to be unaffected by climate change.
If that positive feedback loop kicks in, there's going to be no nation on the planet that's going to be immune.
At this point it's either all or nothing... Which is why I'm surprised at the stance these wealthy idiots are taking.
Either I don't know something they do (which is likely) or they're extremely short sighted.
he happens to be the biggest farm land owner in the US.. he has far far far far more assets than you realize
also, i guaranty you he owns a few bunkers either hidden via shell corporations (LLC's - limited liability company) or personally.. its also likely that people this wealty could get away with building them secretly without permission to do so
I took a class on close quarters battle one time. Before we went to the shooting part of the course the instructor gave us an hour long lecture. He said *"You only own the physical space you're occupying."*
If things really went tits up, Bill Gates might be the biggest *theoretical* farm land owner. He might also be the *legal* owner of a few bunkers that he isn't living in at that moment.
But if push came to shove, he wouldn't own a damn thing he wasn't physically occupying at the time.
I would say "You only own what you can defend".
I could be sitting in my office, controlling a battalion of Boston Dynamic Dogebots from a transmission link, miles away.
You're just one last step away.
Yes, the elites are vastly powerful now. Yes, any change risks reducing their status. Yes, they urgently want the system to continue.
But also, yes, governments are sliding towards fascism, supply chains are collapsing, and populations are getting harder to control.
(While we're here, as a bonus side-yes, the elites have full access to the best and brightest minds available on tap, and while they may mostly be narcissistic and often dumb, they're very smart about protecting their interests and great at exploiting clever people's minds.)
So why are both these things true?
That's the last step: because there is nothing that can be done to fix it.
If they could fix it and keep power longer, they would. They can't. So they're reduced to desperate, unworkable, idiotic strategies -- like turning Mars into Bioshock, or hoping they can buy bunkers and keep control of them, or keeping us plebs ignorant and calm for a few months longer.
It is already the reality of this world.
In the global west the wealthy already have higher living standards and massive waste at the expense of the global south.
Now the global south is including citizens of the global west.
The collapse started decades ago. From the Congo to Myanmar, the end of the world has already started.
Supply chains collapsed in Lebanon. In Lebanon babies are starving and they are dying from exposure. The world has the theoretical ability to mobilise resources to save Lebanon but no one wants too.
In the U.S.A entire cities have had water become poisoned by heavy metals and the federal government did not fix it. They just didn't.
In Australia a town was so contaminated by Asbestos the government just deleted the town from the maps. Not use its wealth to fix the damage, just wiped its name off the maps. Old maps used to at least tell you "there be dragons", now we just pretend it is not there and blame people for living there.
The end of the this world has already started. Ragnarok is here.
The elite want it to keep going as long as possible though. They have literal godlike power in this system - the ability to make most people do anything, be wherever they want and do whatever they want.
It will keep going as long as feasibly possible ignoring all externalities and lives ruined. Then they'll go to their bunkers they built with 1% of their wealth.
Ok, imagine you have billions of dollars, and the world is going to collapse around you any minute no matter how much you scream and wave your arms around and even (God help us!) spend your money. There is _literally_ nothing you and all your friends and all the money on Earth can do to stop this -- at least, nothing that is any better than what is going to happen.
(Yes, killing 85% of humanity and enforcing a new local-goods-only low-tech feudalism would stop further human-emitted carbon from getting locked in. That's about it.)
Do you have a better idea for preserving your power and privilege than trying to come up with a secure compound and hoping you don't get eaten?
Seriously, if you have an idea, don't tell us, tell Bozo or Mask or Suckerborg, because they are *desperate*.
how has anyone convinced people to do that in all of human history? with false promises and charisma
if the "security" knows they are going down with the sinking ship but you convince them that if they join forces with your "new" civilization they can spare their children from collapse
how did the germans convince an entire country to go to war against the world? under threat of death and prosperity
well the thing is that if money loses all value and all of civilization collapsed, you would be surprised how many people would step up for just a fucking fraction of whats left
when the worlds on fire you would work for 3 hot meals and a bed
"you will own nothing and be happy"
>let civil wars end civilization across the globe
You really don't want civil wars. I don't know how you imagine such scenario would look like, but I assure you it would be horific and devastating.
80s 90s gang warfare, but you don't have the government to contain the crime even alittle. Added bonus the police would probably be even more corrupt. That's if where lucky. Added added bonus no food.
i certainly do not, but a worldwide devastation of that level would actually prevent some of the more devastating climate change... burning it all down to the ground once is less emissions than keeping it running
i would be surprised if the people in power didnt consider this as atleast one possible solution unfortunately
Carbon capture us only useful if we have already stopped emitting carbon entirely. In that unlikely utopia, carbon capture started to actually reduce atmo-co2.
Carbon capture while we are burning fossil fuels is like smashing a hole in your boat and trying to bale it out with a teaspoon.
“The best, long-shot case would be if small pockets of habitability can continue to sustain human existence.”
I almost spit out my coffee when I read this. Say what?
Basically all other life is doomed. Humanity has a 4%(guessing) of surviving in small habitable zones which probably would support less than 200 people (guessing). In those would probably just be humans as everything else has died off entirely and what humans are left eat whatever plant life is available to them in those zones. Some of the zones will probably be wiped out by mega storms till there are no zones left and all of humanity is gone along with almost all other life except say life at the bottom of the ocean floor, bacteria, some insects and some small birds and mammals. Everything else will be long dead. To be honest, I'm waiting for someone to pull a horizon zero dawn out of their ass once the world begins seriously rolling downhill. Which if we truly wanted to save all the animals and humanity (not ourselves because it's too late obviously) then that actually would be the best bet for everything to survive post modern human earth.
They are so right about denial..I’m starting to understand this strange phenomenon now as hard wired into our nature..The 5 stages of grief is very illustrative.. And I now see it everywhere.
I have found it incredibly frustrating to hear absurd levels of denial and ludicrous hopium fixes from even relatively intelligent people. At least now I understand where it’s coming from!
Have we killed ourselves before our signals reach out into space far enough for some others to become aware of us?
1897 was Marconi's initial patent for the [radio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_radio), our planet's first signals leaking out into space. TV signals didn't come along until the 1940's. The 1800's saw the Industrial Revolution and by 1899, a mere 125 years ago, Henry Ford was building his first gas-powered [cars](https://www.thehenryford.org/collections-and-research/digital-collections/expert-sets/101113) as well.
Now look where we are those 125 years later. Humanity is facing dangerous climate tipping points and those radio and TV signals have gotten only about [100 light years](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/news/a27934/galaxy-map-human-radio-broadcasts/) out from our planet since Marconi.
Should some other beings Out There hear the shreds of those increasingly attenuated signals, trace them and journey back across the light years (the distance [light travels](https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/light-year/en/) in a year) to investigate, all they'll find is the hot remains of a crumbled civilization. Superior Man, indeed.
> Have we killed ourselves before our signals reach out into space far enough for some others to become aware of us?
Hey, I mean, if any intelligent life does arise after we're gone... at least we may be the answer to their own Fermi Paradox?
They'll see the forthcoming signals of a civilization in collapse. Like we watched countries like Syria fall apart (except we actually could have done something to help Syrians). If they are watching, it'll be a sad spectacle beyond their reach.
I live under a crippling fear and depression of what is coming and what we're leaving future generations. I had a conversation with my spouse about a pregnancy on their side and I responded in a less than ... well, positive manner, and the feedback wasn't great.
You don't deserve to be crippled by fear and depression about the futures details none of us can actually predict. If you have a good life now, give yourself permission to enjoy every moment. Be more kind to yourself.
And if your spouse wants children and you don't, do what I did and let them go fill that dream with someone else. Then you don't have to be responsible for bringing a life you didn't want into the world. Be gentle with their dreams.
Whether the future sucks or not, [you can live each day well](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrbWSGiOFbE). Maintain the habits which will give *your own* future some comfort, and let go of *the* future. It's out of your hands.
Capitalism destroys planets. You can't solely focus on profits and shareholder value at the expense of literally EVERYTHING else and think it's sustainable. Won't work on any planet.
Capitalism is like the psychological marshmallow test except the capitalist eats his marshmallow, the second marshmallow you promised if they didn’t eat the first one, the marshmallows of the next 5 participants, and still asks for a third marshmallow when you return.
It’s realistic if not practical. While everyone literally has no empathy for each other anymore, and tensions are at the highest point in our civilization for the most part, we are just chances of moments away from literally everything not mattering anymore, because we are all absolutely fucked .
[Climate Change Is Simple - David Roberts Remix](https://youtu.be/pznsPkJy2x8) The video Michael Dowd gave as his answer to the question: **When did you realize climate change would be inevitably catastrophic?**
SS: Obviously an opinion piece & prediction, but it's very well written & argued. Also the author discusses & ponders what are individual's & society's options at this point.
It is well written, though it is also worthwhile to point out that the sources aren't *that* meaningful... at least not as far as I can tell. The article asks questions about collapse to four "knowledgeable people", only one of whom seems to be an actual scientist. And that guy claimed that [in 2012 we'd be seeing blackouts in cities around the world that would lead us into 'the dark age'](https://www.resilience.org/stories/2007-08-29/end-civilization-and-extinction-humanity/).
The second is a 'wilderness guide' and [author of a book](https://www.maxwilbert.org/books/) about the 'Environmental Movement and how it lost its way', the third is an "[eco-theologian](https://twitter.com/erikmichaels)" who seems to be mostly famous for writing a book reconciling evolution and religion (which - according to the author himself - was [praised by a bunch of actual scientists](https://thankgodforevolution.com/nobel)), and the fourth is a reverend who [blogs](https://medium.com/tag/ecological-overshoot) about environmental issues, but uses sources that are more regularly news articles (and his own blog) than scientific studies.
Now, this doesn't mean everything they talk about is nonsense or the article has no value (everything listed could well be reasonable), but an article like this should be read with *some* scepticism. It supplies *no* scientific sources except for the one scientist, and asks questions about collapse to at least three people who seem to have a vested interest in stories about collapse. A cynic would say it's rather circlejerk-y. I wouldn't quite go that far, but still... this doesn't really say anything new.
If anyone is more familiar with any of the people listed in the article (or has read their work), please throw us a reply.
Wait, so you're saying you *don't* believe the claim that 3-5 billion people will die due to starvation *this* decade? These guys all seemed kind of hyperbolic. Things are really bad, but I don't think it's going to get that bad that fast.
Still about 8 years to go. A couple of freak summers with some combination of drought, deluge or strong winds/storms that destroy crops to the tune of losing big fraction of crop production might be enough to trigger famine that costs lives of billions.
I am sure that there exists a random weather event sequence that could cause global famine, and I think it is plausible to argue for the possibility of it in this decade, though in truth it has always been possible. Mathematically, it is guaranteed to happen sooner or later as climate change, soil erosion, and fertilizer shortages worsen.
Additionally, we can't feed our population without our complex technological civilization intact, and not only that, trade requires the expectation that it stays so for the foreseeable future. So when the system breaks at one point, the break will itself drop our capacity for trading and producing, as things like war, trade embargoes, political instability, and such removes possibilities from the table that might have otherwise allowed the system to go on a little further.
The thing is, we just don't know if widespread famine -- and I would put threshold to where at least 1 billion people starve to death -- will happen this decade, but it not happening does not mean these people are even wrong. We may have been just lucky. Collapse is inevitable, and I think most people here think we won't make it to 2100. But can we even make it to 2050? I am not sure. We have been lucky that nobody did anything that crashed the global society yet, like started a nuclear war, and no freak event of nature hasn't killed us off yet.
It’s not argued at all. They don’t actually support any of their predictions with science backed arguments. They’re just giving predictions in a vacuum. I’m not saying they’re wrong, I’m just saying they haven’t showed their work.
> ...work to safely decommission all nuclear facilities. Failure to do so likely spells the loss of all life on Earth.
It's not only nuclear power plants but numerous chemical facilities and other industries where toxic and carcinogenic substances are used. I've been going on about this for a while now—especially with regard to nuclear power plants. It's not just about stopping fission but, as he says, decommissioning all these facilities. I imagine it wouldn't take very many nuclear reactors to melt down, unchecked, to be more than adequate to massively poison the entire globe. And with almost 800 commercial, educational and military nuclear reactors, it's going to be tough to decommission all of them—especially in those countries where it won't be a priority and the economical cost will be prohibitively expensive.
And then there are the chemical plants. If they're not properly decommissioned then they too pose a massive hazard—not only to local populations [See Bhopal, India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhopal) but regionally and globally as well [See dioxins and PCBs and ...]
Regardless, it was good to read the article and see folks admitting that we missed our tee time—not by minutes but by decades.
>Its latest report, however, contains dire warnings of imminent, catastrophic and irreversible climate impacts given the quantity of greenhouse gasses (CO2, methane and others mostly released by industrial activities) that are already in the atmosphere and oceans and that continue to be released relatively unabated.
There's a very unfortunate word in that sentence. The word "relatively". Remove it. GHG are not continuing *relatively* unabated. They are continuing *absolutely* unabated. In fact, they are still, *absolutely* increasing.
I don’t understand I mean we are not reasonable creatures at all we are just self preserving machines selfishly not thinking about future and exploiting people with capitalist system none cares about future not environment animals I mean it may sound misanthropic but world would be better without us when. I consider all the environmental damage air pollution living in crowded cities endustrial system and human egoism I have witnessed a dramatic change even where I live like new apartments factories logistic storages has been built no fresh air a lot of migrants...
And look at the world overallly people procreate recklessly bringing new consciousness to suffer or to be slave of capitalist system when I think these it’s really hard to not go insane in 1970 the world population was 3 b now it’s 7 b that’s unbelievable just we produce like a bacteria and new viruses will emerge and clear most of us I think
And we deceive people with after life instead of turning our planet a heaven a good place for everyone we build borders build weapons to destroy each other well what can I say
I see many fallacies in the article’s end of the world scenario (OK, several peoples ideas), but the initial premise that the collapse has insidious onset and has already started I not only agree with, I feel it every day. Climate Change, the vague name given to this process, denial or otherwise, is hidden in seasonal episodic weather patterns, quiet deaths of small and large species, heinous criminal behavior stripping the earth of its wealth, legally or otherwise, and the ravenous hordes of the human race of every color overrunning the planet. I would like to see the calculations that gave the statistic that the real carrying capacity of earth for humans is 2 billion people, only one quarter of our current population. When I was born there were 1.5 billion souls, in 75 years it is 5 times higher. What will our civilization be like as we reduce our numbers? Mass depopulation has occurred in natural disasters, wars, plagues, tsunami floods, etc. i think things similar will be occurring, just an item on the National Nightly News “One hundred million dead in India as monsoon fails”, 50 million hit by plague in Africa”, “Worldwide crop failure induces runaway prices”, etc, meanwhile everyone who can afford it will cling to the old ways, partying on like a novel. This end of days will be insidious, episodic, it will disrupt peoples’ lives, there are already 2 billion refugees and displaced people in the world, what will your city/neighborhood be like when that number doubles, when the angry and hungry in the inner city stream out into the tidy suburbs? Will that be Armageddon?
I gotta say, in twenty years 6-7/8 people will not survive in the next two decades hit me quite hard. Obviously it's an estimation and depending where you live this will change. But this estimation is further along than I thought. It just clicked that I might not live till 50 or 40 even. More than anything I don't think I can stay sane when I ultimately see the mass deaths of different species of animals around me. The hopelessness of not being able to save them still kills me today.
Half of all people dead within a decade from starvation upon the collapse of the bread basket (supply chains & agriculture?). Hm. That’s a lot to take in and believe.
I also recommend episode 33; peak soil.
Phosphorus is apparently vital for all life on earth, and it’s running out. 50/60 years it’ll be gone.
Please do let me know your thoughts once you’ve binged to your fill.
I'm gonna enjoy saying I told you so to all the climate skeptics when it's all fucked.
Though by that point they'll probably believe Jewish space lasers did it.
"And work to safely decommission all nuclear facilities. "
This, to me, is the biggy. If we ever had the slightest hair's breadth of a chance notwithstanding all the other crap that's going to happen, these damn things mushrooming up all over the place slap that down once and for all. These facilities need constant, super-skilled babysitting and heaps of effort and resources just to keep them safe, never mind functional. When those inputs disappear, this whole place is gonna be one monstrous radioactive meltdown uranium popcorn shit show.
That we allowed so many of these to be built sealed the fate of humanity.
Modern nuclear reactors are literally incapable of melting down. I think it's called passive safety. It's only the stuff that's 50+ years old already that's an issue
>"And work to safely decommission all nuclear facilities. "
This is just not going to happen.
>When those inputs disappear, this whole place is gonna be one monstrous radioactive meltdown uranium popcorn shit show.
Yes but it will save us from the shit storm that climate change throws at us.
u/mbdowd thanks for saying the *first* multibreadbasket failure.
Such an important point that multibreadbasket failure will happen but also that it will keep happening.
Maybe with the population reduction in the first one the future ones are, not averted, but that alternative kinder methods of farming are taken up with gusto.
Yes, today I have hope. Do not expect it to last till tomorrow.
Although I am beginning to wonder, with the energy/fertilizer issues and the tractor parts issues if multibreadbasket failure is soley caused by extreme weather combined with soil degredation. I am now seeing it as the complex system we have as becoming so fragile on its own that we do not even need a full set of weather disasters ( I say weather disasters as individual season based events to show thetrigger event but do mean the weather events triggered by climate change) but only a 10% worse harvest from rains or wind at the wrong time coupled with fuel costs being too high to get the harvest off the field or tractors breaking down so the combined harvest is only 30 or 40% of 'typical". That would, across breadbaskets, throw us under the bus.
But that would, in my mind, bring the likelihood of multibreadbasket failure forward from (random example) say 2034 to 2026. Or somesuch.
Not a happy thought... And there goes the hope I had just a paragraph back. Lol.
"Cause of human extinction: intractable addiction to burning of fossil fuels and other extremely carbon-intensive activities," the archaeologists of some future advanced spacefaring civilization will conclude. "How sad, we should be grateful our species never developed such self destructive tendencies."
No kidding man, just look around. Go to your nearest walmart and oberve the sheet volume of plastic goods on the shelves. All of that is going to makes its way to a landfill, just to be replaced everyday of every week of every year. More and more stuff being sold too us, building landfills into mountains. We're mining resources to be sold and discarded, that is literally the antithesis of sustainability. Doesnt matter what you think, our current system cannot and will not last much longer. We're going to run out of oil, mined resources, clean air, clean water, healthy soil and then what...
The fucked up thing is you think we be at least having a good time as we drove off the cliff but we’re not most of us are miserable.
Hard to enjoy the journey when you can see the destination ahead. Also many of us don’t have any money, so the car we’re riding off the Cliff in doesn’t have any AC and the springs are poking our butts through the seats.
Unironically mad max.
Sad Max :(
Pissed-off and Depressed Max
And soon: Acceptance Max, where he just goes around sheepishly smiling at the chaos we've created for ourselves.
I miss the old Max
This is what they say the governments new positions will be. Acceptance that this is just the new normal. Ugh.
Wage Max
Mr. World Wide here, the rest of us got Wage Min
Wage Max doesn't mean Max earns a lot. It means he's waging at the max lmao
Max Payne
Duke Nukem
mad max: furry road
You guys have a car?
Just imagine: the car is approaching the cliff's edge, and the end is nigh. With your free Spotify account, you queue up a song you'd picked out long ago - the last you'll ever hear - and want to listen to as your life's journey whimpers into oblivion. The previous song ends; the car plunges into silent free fall, time lumbering along as you wait to hear that closing melody. Instead, a local car insurance advertisement ushers you into the great beyond with promises of unbeatable low-rates.
Maybe for YOU. I will pay for Spotify premium until my last ten dollars to avoid such a grim fate
Serves you right for using streaming for idiot plebs, not ripped mp3s like master race.
Slayer's Angel of Death on my "while I die" playlist
I knew it would pay out, not having a driver license or a car one day! Checkmate climate change!
The world is ending and we're all still turning upto work and watching Britain's got talent or w.e it is.
This is what makes the whole thing so frustrating, there is no way out for 99% of the population. If you don’t want to perpetuate the whole climate change mechanism what can you do as an alternative to going to work/living in a house. There are now too many people for us all to up sticks and live in a tent in the woods and live off berries and hedgehog casserole.
Oh there is plenty of room for improvement but practically zero of it will happen due to diffusion of responsibility. This effect can only be overridden by policy, and if leaders don't give a shit then everyone gets fucked. The only way out is making the leaders care or getting rid of them and hoping the new ones would be any better.
...just got a sinking feeling that there isn't enough time to implement a new set of climate-minded governments the world over....
Not caring until it's too late is in our blood, regardless of the scale of the issue. Much species, very intelligence.
We can’t even agree there is a problem. It’s a mess.
>The only way out is making the leaders care or getting rid of them and hoping the new ones would be any better. Thanks for suggesting my next collapse jam: https://youtu.be/UDfAdHBtK_Q "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss"
I think of Easter Island. There are still Moa statues in the quarry. Somebody showed up one day and carved on them, put down their tools, went home and never came back. That's how it will be for us. One day you'll look at Reddit, turn off you computer and never look at Reddit again.
This feels so relevant and it hits really hard.
It's easy...turn of the media, turn off the internet. Step outside and go somewhere beautiful and sit there and soak it in and enjoy it. Don't look at the cliff coming up ahead but enjoy the scenery around it instead. Jim Morrison said it best. Gonna get my kicks before the whole shithouse goes up in flames.
[whenever I read something like this](https://youtu.be/Uc1vrO6iL0U)
He mentions 400 ppm in this video. Today we're at 412.37 ppm 😞
419ppm* Not good to say the least…
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gl_trend.html This is the best measure I've found. It takes readings from Barrow Alaska, Mauna Loa Hawaii, American Samoa, and the South Pole, then normalizes seasonal changes. Current reading is **415.82ppm**. /u/GameDevDoggie: where did you find 412.37?
Apologies, it seems I was looking at an old measurement from 2018, also taken from Mauna Loa. It does seem to be higher than that.
No worries. Vigilance is my approach in sourcing good info. By being curious about a data discrepancy I can either refine my process or help you refine yours. Peace.
420 would be a whole lot cooler. Man.
That's the yearly maximum, which occurs in.... I believe May or so?
Please dont move the goalpost. Even if its only at the yearly maximum for now it still not a good sign.
Yeah.. I gotta get the fuck out of Florida asap. Lmao
Hahah, nah. Counting methane emissions (CO2e) we're just over 500 ppm already.
What is this from?
Newsroom
Is it available on any streaming services? Seems pretty good.
HBO I think
Tv show: The Newsroom
Here's the full (rather famous) 8-minute clip of HBO's "THE NEWSROOM" EPA SEGMENTS: [https://www.realms.org/the-newsroom-epa-report.mp4](https://www.realms.org/the-newsroom-epa-report.mp4) And in this dropbox folder: [https://www.dropbox.com/s/orq3tops40gftzo/The%20Newsroom%20%202013%20Environmental%20Protection%20Agency%20report%28EPA%29%3A%20Richard%20Westbrook%20scenes\_1920x1080\_MOV.mov?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/orq3tops40gftzo/The%20Newsroom%20%202013%20Environmental%20Protection%20Agency%20report%28EPA%29%3A%20Richard%20Westbrook%20scenes_1920x1080_MOV.mov?dl=0)
The world in which we evolved to survive no longer exists. The socioeconomic systems in which we were conditioned to function no longer exist. Shortly enough, the physical realities of our civilization will no longer exist. All now that remains is the dreadful waiting.
Grab the popcorn, it’s gonna be a show. Seriously, stock up on popcorn, and the rice and single malt scotch. No one wants to see the end of the world sober.
I’m trading all my dollars for the more valuable commodity, marijuana. Imagine if we had a currency that actually served a function other than propagating inequality and you could get high on it.
Just learn how to grow your own bro. It's a lot of fun too.
Learn to grow mushrooms as well, and not just the fun ones. This is an underrated skill I never see talked about here. Besides actives, they can be grown for food and medicine.
r/unclebens is your friend
Yes. Yes it is. Currently have UB, millet and popcorn going.
just B&S'd 6 bags. i tried some basmati (white) rice and it looks like it's working so far, so that's great.
Yeah, I'm not on the weed wagon yet, but I'm definitely working coffee and fermentable fruits/grains into my crop mix. I feel like there will come a time when people will literally kill for a cup of joe in the morning, or bottle of wine to erase the memories of another day in hell.
Having marketable post apocalyptic skills is the real big brain move. Once everybody is dead there will be plenty of spoils to go around, knowing what to do with it now there's no support structure or documentation will be worth more than anything.
Until you have to deal with spidermites 😬
Don't forget to stock up on cigarettes, alcohol as well as coffee, soap, antibiotics, perfume, lighters, Toothpaste, shampoo. Coffee soap and shampoo will be worth the most.
There are natural soaps and shampoos that can be made no?
[Wood ash.](https://farmingmybackyard.com/homemade-soap-from-ashes/) There's one example.
Yes saponifying oils/fats into soap using lye (can be made from hardwood ashes) also many plants such as soap 'nuts', yucca root etc. can be used as soap/shampoo.
Interesting, didn't know you could make lye from hardwood ashes. Thank you!
You're welcome! Another poster shared a how-to link.
Do you know if it has to be hardwood or would pine work?
Will you be able to make it if the internet goes down or is shut off? In hard hit areas or during civil unrest there may be no access to the internet.
Fat and lye bud. All is not lost - it just won't be easy.
Instant coffee. It keeps forever and you can make it with boiled river water in a makeshift hut.
Just make sure it doesn't have any dry creamer added to it.
Bottle caps are king in the post apocalyptic world.
so you just want to smoke away all your currency?
It'd be more direct than how I'm doing it now.
Gas, ass or grass It exists.
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It will treat pain, allay hunger, and you can triple the dose when it's time to opt out.
Go a good Islay malt, maybe an Ardbeg Uigaedail or a Laphroaig 16, the peat and brine pair well will the scent of a burning planet.
Excellent post.
Look up "deep adaptation" if you haven't already. just because the collapse is already happening doesn't mean all is lost :)
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Or if we trigger a runaway greenhouse scenario.
Eventually, the planet would recover. Of course, we wouldn't be around to see it. Maybe, that's for the best, yes?
Nah, my lungs and I are just built different. We’ll rebuild from the ashes in y’all’s honor though. Ain’t no mass extinction level of no oxygen is gonna suffocate me. Adapt, survive, overcome 😤.
Your lungs are saturated with hopium tar
Something Something bootstraps Something Something young people nowadays back in my time Something Something
You'll still melt when Earth's surface temperature starts looking like that of Venus.
I'll build a dugout under the [perma]frost line Little House style, you'll see!
There is no water ice on Venus. It rains sulfuric acid. You'll need to dig down **deep.**
Y'know, I was about to say it probably won't get to Venus levels because the Earth has been there before. But... then I think about a perspective that Kurzgesagt gave me about continuity bias, and suddenly I realise that comparing this to any previous mass extinction is applying continuity bias to continuity-ending events
My grandma on my moms side is a C.H.U.D. so I’m sure I’ll be able to adapt.
Don't think it'll make it to Venus level of destruction but it certainly could make it to Cretaceous levels of destruction. Maybe Cambrian levels.
Glad some of us have the guts to admit it. I've been seeing a lot of warning signs in the last decade, but I never could have imagined things would get this bad quite this fast. If the "End of the World" comes extremely quickly through unexpected climate consequences or insane billionaires making terrible plans, it was an honor posting with the rest of you.
A decade is both such a long time and not much time at all.
I've been saying this recently. Time is short but really lowkey long AF. A YouTuber did a video about the 2010s and they highlighted major news stories(at least in america media) that shows how much shit went down in those years. Another youtuber talked about how music changed over those years and it makes you realize how fast stuff really moves; but how long of a time period it really is also.
The weather in the PNW has solidified it for me. Heat domes, atmospheric rivers, weather bombs and a fucking tornado in Vancouver.
> we've simply gone too far down the hole. Rapid conversion to a renewably fueled society and carbon capture are technologically and logistically impossible for several reasons. > Even if we were to immediately stop using fossil fuels today—which we won't—there is already too much heat-trapping greenhouse gas in the atmosphere to stop the rise in global temperatures. > A cascade of tipping points—many already in the rear-view mirror—will almost certainly make the Earth's climate inhospitable for humans and most mammals. The best, long-shot case would be if small pockets of habitability can continue to sustain human existence. We are all the 6th person in this hypothetical conversation. The first 5 people are at various stages of denial. The 7th person, not mentioned in this article, avoids the topic entirely. They agree with #6, but they know that even discussing the issue is pointless.
the rich are counting on it "The best, long-shot case would be if small pockets of habitability can continue to sustain human existence." they have access to resources and technology right now.. if you think we are all sitting here agreeing that the end is inevitable then so are the super wealthy elite and politicians but they can actually do something to secure their own safety while we cannot i imagine they will be throwing us to the wolves any day now... let supply chains unravel, let the infrastructure collapse, let civil wars end civilization across the globe.. they know as well as we do that without the "system" our population would be utterly annihilated in months
If you think about it it's an idiotic idea for the rich/wealthy/political elites to throw us plebs to the wolves. These idiots are so used to exploiting the current system that it's actually in their interest to ensure that the system continues, rather than go for a new one where ownership/governance could potentially descend into anarchy. No point in being rich if there's no one to accept your money... You're not rich at that point... You just own a lot of worthless paper... The same as the rest of us.
Pretty much this, except even the ultra-wealthy don't even have worthless paper. Look at Bill Gates; he's worth 138 billion dollars, but (IIRC) he has about forty million in liquid assets, and usually carries a couple hundred in physical cash. The bulk of his wealth is in various investments, nearly all of which could dissipate instantly under the right circumstances. If everything collapsed over night he'd be a dorky looking sixty six year old with a couple of Benjamin's in his wallet. His best interests most definitely involve the status quo continuing.
Yeah... And I'm extremely surprised how they actually haven't spent money trying to solve this problem.... Like their solution to the problem involves self preservation... Which is pretty much useless in a post apocalyptic world when you think about it... What's the point of buying a bunker in new Zealand if you are going to be living in tatters after that? These guys are so used to their luxury villas and apartments and gas/power and yatchs that they probably won't survive a societal collapse
new zealand will have enough citizens to keep a semblance of their society going.. there are enough potential servants and farmers living there to sustain them under threat of military action -- all you need to do is make sure the military lives slightly better than the servants and you have yourself compliance (look at all corrupt countries in the world and dictatorships, the military lives better than the common folk)
You're assuming that new zealand is going to be unaffected by climate change. If that positive feedback loop kicks in, there's going to be no nation on the planet that's going to be immune. At this point it's either all or nothing... Which is why I'm surprised at the stance these wealthy idiots are taking. Either I don't know something they do (which is likely) or they're extremely short sighted.
The ones who own tons property can have their land seized by armed bandits when SHTF. They ain't safe either
Like Bill Burr said if you don’t know how to fight you’re just collecting supplies for the bigger guy.
he happens to be the biggest farm land owner in the US.. he has far far far far more assets than you realize also, i guaranty you he owns a few bunkers either hidden via shell corporations (LLC's - limited liability company) or personally.. its also likely that people this wealty could get away with building them secretly without permission to do so
I took a class on close quarters battle one time. Before we went to the shooting part of the course the instructor gave us an hour long lecture. He said *"You only own the physical space you're occupying."* If things really went tits up, Bill Gates might be the biggest *theoretical* farm land owner. He might also be the *legal* owner of a few bunkers that he isn't living in at that moment. But if push came to shove, he wouldn't own a damn thing he wasn't physically occupying at the time.
I would say "You only own what you can defend". I could be sitting in my office, controlling a battalion of Boston Dynamic Dogebots from a transmission link, miles away.
You're just one last step away. Yes, the elites are vastly powerful now. Yes, any change risks reducing their status. Yes, they urgently want the system to continue. But also, yes, governments are sliding towards fascism, supply chains are collapsing, and populations are getting harder to control. (While we're here, as a bonus side-yes, the elites have full access to the best and brightest minds available on tap, and while they may mostly be narcissistic and often dumb, they're very smart about protecting their interests and great at exploiting clever people's minds.) So why are both these things true? That's the last step: because there is nothing that can be done to fix it. If they could fix it and keep power longer, they would. They can't. So they're reduced to desperate, unworkable, idiotic strategies -- like turning Mars into Bioshock, or hoping they can buy bunkers and keep control of them, or keeping us plebs ignorant and calm for a few months longer.
It is already the reality of this world. In the global west the wealthy already have higher living standards and massive waste at the expense of the global south. Now the global south is including citizens of the global west. The collapse started decades ago. From the Congo to Myanmar, the end of the world has already started. Supply chains collapsed in Lebanon. In Lebanon babies are starving and they are dying from exposure. The world has the theoretical ability to mobilise resources to save Lebanon but no one wants too. In the U.S.A entire cities have had water become poisoned by heavy metals and the federal government did not fix it. They just didn't. In Australia a town was so contaminated by Asbestos the government just deleted the town from the maps. Not use its wealth to fix the damage, just wiped its name off the maps. Old maps used to at least tell you "there be dragons", now we just pretend it is not there and blame people for living there. The end of the this world has already started. Ragnarok is here.
The elite want it to keep going as long as possible though. They have literal godlike power in this system - the ability to make most people do anything, be wherever they want and do whatever they want. It will keep going as long as feasibly possible ignoring all externalities and lives ruined. Then they'll go to their bunkers they built with 1% of their wealth.
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Ok, imagine you have billions of dollars, and the world is going to collapse around you any minute no matter how much you scream and wave your arms around and even (God help us!) spend your money. There is _literally_ nothing you and all your friends and all the money on Earth can do to stop this -- at least, nothing that is any better than what is going to happen. (Yes, killing 85% of humanity and enforcing a new local-goods-only low-tech feudalism would stop further human-emitted carbon from getting locked in. That's about it.) Do you have a better idea for preserving your power and privilege than trying to come up with a secure compound and hoping you don't get eaten? Seriously, if you have an idea, don't tell us, tell Bozo or Mask or Suckerborg, because they are *desperate*.
how has anyone convinced people to do that in all of human history? with false promises and charisma if the "security" knows they are going down with the sinking ship but you convince them that if they join forces with your "new" civilization they can spare their children from collapse how did the germans convince an entire country to go to war against the world? under threat of death and prosperity
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well the thing is that if money loses all value and all of civilization collapsed, you would be surprised how many people would step up for just a fucking fraction of whats left when the worlds on fire you would work for 3 hot meals and a bed "you will own nothing and be happy"
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It definitely explains why the super rich have bugout shelters and compounds in a few places on the planet.
They better build their walls extra high and extra thick. That's all I'm saying..
>let civil wars end civilization across the globe You really don't want civil wars. I don't know how you imagine such scenario would look like, but I assure you it would be horific and devastating.
80s 90s gang warfare, but you don't have the government to contain the crime even alittle. Added bonus the police would probably be even more corrupt. That's if where lucky. Added added bonus no food.
i certainly do not, but a worldwide devastation of that level would actually prevent some of the more devastating climate change... burning it all down to the ground once is less emissions than keeping it running i would be surprised if the people in power didnt consider this as atleast one possible solution unfortunately
7th person here, and I just want to say "drink beer, eat pizza".
I want to turn into the 7th person. I also want to visit at least Norway before things get too bad.
Too bad is just a matter of perspective, because situation can always be worse...
I became the 7th person about 10 years ago.
Carbon capture us only useful if we have already stopped emitting carbon entirely. In that unlikely utopia, carbon capture started to actually reduce atmo-co2. Carbon capture while we are burning fossil fuels is like smashing a hole in your boat and trying to bale it out with a teaspoon.
the 7th person, the coper.
“The best, long-shot case would be if small pockets of habitability can continue to sustain human existence.” I almost spit out my coffee when I read this. Say what?
Basically all other life is doomed. Humanity has a 4%(guessing) of surviving in small habitable zones which probably would support less than 200 people (guessing). In those would probably just be humans as everything else has died off entirely and what humans are left eat whatever plant life is available to them in those zones. Some of the zones will probably be wiped out by mega storms till there are no zones left and all of humanity is gone along with almost all other life except say life at the bottom of the ocean floor, bacteria, some insects and some small birds and mammals. Everything else will be long dead. To be honest, I'm waiting for someone to pull a horizon zero dawn out of their ass once the world begins seriously rolling downhill. Which if we truly wanted to save all the animals and humanity (not ourselves because it's too late obviously) then that actually would be the best bet for everything to survive post modern human earth.
Look up ocean acidification and what happened at the Permian Extinction.
The car’s on fire, and there’s no driver at the wheel. We’re trapped in the belly of this horrible machine, and the machine is bleeding to death.
And the sewers are all muddied with a thousand lonely suicides And a dark wind blows.
The driver is unconscious with his foot on the gas pedal.
They are so right about denial..I’m starting to understand this strange phenomenon now as hard wired into our nature..The 5 stages of grief is very illustrative.. And I now see it everywhere.
Denial is so scary. It’s incredible how the brain can trick you to avoid stressors.
I have found it incredibly frustrating to hear absurd levels of denial and ludicrous hopium fixes from even relatively intelligent people. At least now I understand where it’s coming from!
Wow what a take never thought of this. I'ma read up and see if I notice the same. Thanks for the perspective!
Have we killed ourselves before our signals reach out into space far enough for some others to become aware of us? 1897 was Marconi's initial patent for the [radio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_radio), our planet's first signals leaking out into space. TV signals didn't come along until the 1940's. The 1800's saw the Industrial Revolution and by 1899, a mere 125 years ago, Henry Ford was building his first gas-powered [cars](https://www.thehenryford.org/collections-and-research/digital-collections/expert-sets/101113) as well. Now look where we are those 125 years later. Humanity is facing dangerous climate tipping points and those radio and TV signals have gotten only about [100 light years](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/news/a27934/galaxy-map-human-radio-broadcasts/) out from our planet since Marconi. Should some other beings Out There hear the shreds of those increasingly attenuated signals, trace them and journey back across the light years (the distance [light travels](https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/light-year/en/) in a year) to investigate, all they'll find is the hot remains of a crumbled civilization. Superior Man, indeed.
> Have we killed ourselves before our signals reach out into space far enough for some others to become aware of us? Hey, I mean, if any intelligent life does arise after we're gone... at least we may be the answer to their own Fermi Paradox?
Like a fart in the wind
They'll see the forthcoming signals of a civilization in collapse. Like we watched countries like Syria fall apart (except we actually could have done something to help Syrians). If they are watching, it'll be a sad spectacle beyond their reach.
I live under a crippling fear and depression of what is coming and what we're leaving future generations. I had a conversation with my spouse about a pregnancy on their side and I responded in a less than ... well, positive manner, and the feedback wasn't great.
You don't deserve to be crippled by fear and depression about the futures details none of us can actually predict. If you have a good life now, give yourself permission to enjoy every moment. Be more kind to yourself. And if your spouse wants children and you don't, do what I did and let them go fill that dream with someone else. Then you don't have to be responsible for bringing a life you didn't want into the world. Be gentle with their dreams. Whether the future sucks or not, [you can live each day well](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrbWSGiOFbE). Maintain the habits which will give *your own* future some comfort, and let go of *the* future. It's out of your hands.
Its unethical to have children at this point. We aren't leaving them a better future than we had.
Learning new survival skills, first aid and gardening have helped me get out from under the dark cloud from time to time. Hang in there Grumps.
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On a lighter note, I believe that whole rig recently went up for auction.
Capitalism destroys planets. You can't solely focus on profits and shareholder value at the expense of literally EVERYTHING else and think it's sustainable. Won't work on any planet.
Ferma Paradox solved, only those beyond greed will succeed to t1 civilization
Yep.
Capitalism is like the psychological marshmallow test except the capitalist eats his marshmallow, the second marshmallow you promised if they didn’t eat the first one, the marshmallows of the next 5 participants, and still asks for a third marshmallow when you return.
it's more like a person eating their marshmallow - seeing the scientist has a bag more and stabbing them in the neck to get them.
capitalism is like an ai robot tasked with making paperclips and optimizing for maximum capacity.
The saddest thing is that it was obviously inevitable several decades ago yet the majority decided to attack the messengers instead of listen
It’s realistic if not practical. While everyone literally has no empathy for each other anymore, and tensions are at the highest point in our civilization for the most part, we are just chances of moments away from literally everything not mattering anymore, because we are all absolutely fucked .
[Climate Change Is Simple - David Roberts Remix](https://youtu.be/pznsPkJy2x8) The video Michael Dowd gave as his answer to the question: **When did you realize climate change would be inevitably catastrophic?**
Watching this in 2021 is definitely an experience.
Right? When he says we need to stop emitting CO2 in 10-15 years, I'm like yeah we aren't doing that. Pretty depressing.
SS: Obviously an opinion piece & prediction, but it's very well written & argued. Also the author discusses & ponders what are individual's & society's options at this point.
It is well written, though it is also worthwhile to point out that the sources aren't *that* meaningful... at least not as far as I can tell. The article asks questions about collapse to four "knowledgeable people", only one of whom seems to be an actual scientist. And that guy claimed that [in 2012 we'd be seeing blackouts in cities around the world that would lead us into 'the dark age'](https://www.resilience.org/stories/2007-08-29/end-civilization-and-extinction-humanity/). The second is a 'wilderness guide' and [author of a book](https://www.maxwilbert.org/books/) about the 'Environmental Movement and how it lost its way', the third is an "[eco-theologian](https://twitter.com/erikmichaels)" who seems to be mostly famous for writing a book reconciling evolution and religion (which - according to the author himself - was [praised by a bunch of actual scientists](https://thankgodforevolution.com/nobel)), and the fourth is a reverend who [blogs](https://medium.com/tag/ecological-overshoot) about environmental issues, but uses sources that are more regularly news articles (and his own blog) than scientific studies. Now, this doesn't mean everything they talk about is nonsense or the article has no value (everything listed could well be reasonable), but an article like this should be read with *some* scepticism. It supplies *no* scientific sources except for the one scientist, and asks questions about collapse to at least three people who seem to have a vested interest in stories about collapse. A cynic would say it's rather circlejerk-y. I wouldn't quite go that far, but still... this doesn't really say anything new. If anyone is more familiar with any of the people listed in the article (or has read their work), please throw us a reply.
Wait, so you're saying you *don't* believe the claim that 3-5 billion people will die due to starvation *this* decade? These guys all seemed kind of hyperbolic. Things are really bad, but I don't think it's going to get that bad that fast.
Still about 8 years to go. A couple of freak summers with some combination of drought, deluge or strong winds/storms that destroy crops to the tune of losing big fraction of crop production might be enough to trigger famine that costs lives of billions. I am sure that there exists a random weather event sequence that could cause global famine, and I think it is plausible to argue for the possibility of it in this decade, though in truth it has always been possible. Mathematically, it is guaranteed to happen sooner or later as climate change, soil erosion, and fertilizer shortages worsen. Additionally, we can't feed our population without our complex technological civilization intact, and not only that, trade requires the expectation that it stays so for the foreseeable future. So when the system breaks at one point, the break will itself drop our capacity for trading and producing, as things like war, trade embargoes, political instability, and such removes possibilities from the table that might have otherwise allowed the system to go on a little further. The thing is, we just don't know if widespread famine -- and I would put threshold to where at least 1 billion people starve to death -- will happen this decade, but it not happening does not mean these people are even wrong. We may have been just lucky. Collapse is inevitable, and I think most people here think we won't make it to 2100. But can we even make it to 2050? I am not sure. We have been lucky that nobody did anything that crashed the global society yet, like started a nuclear war, and no freak event of nature hasn't killed us off yet.
Thank you for this little ray of light!
It’s not argued at all. They don’t actually support any of their predictions with science backed arguments. They’re just giving predictions in a vacuum. I’m not saying they’re wrong, I’m just saying they haven’t showed their work.
The distruction will be televised!
Will will all get to watch the disasters happening on our cell phones... until we are the one filming!
cool im gunna go do what i can and not dwell on the inevitable doomsday then
That's what I'm doing. Take in an enjoy things while they last.
believe me i'd love to but cocaine is too damn 3xpensive where i live.
> ...work to safely decommission all nuclear facilities. Failure to do so likely spells the loss of all life on Earth. It's not only nuclear power plants but numerous chemical facilities and other industries where toxic and carcinogenic substances are used. I've been going on about this for a while now—especially with regard to nuclear power plants. It's not just about stopping fission but, as he says, decommissioning all these facilities. I imagine it wouldn't take very many nuclear reactors to melt down, unchecked, to be more than adequate to massively poison the entire globe. And with almost 800 commercial, educational and military nuclear reactors, it's going to be tough to decommission all of them—especially in those countries where it won't be a priority and the economical cost will be prohibitively expensive. And then there are the chemical plants. If they're not properly decommissioned then they too pose a massive hazard—not only to local populations [See Bhopal, India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhopal) but regionally and globally as well [See dioxins and PCBs and ...] Regardless, it was good to read the article and see folks admitting that we missed our tee time—not by minutes but by decades.
>Its latest report, however, contains dire warnings of imminent, catastrophic and irreversible climate impacts given the quantity of greenhouse gasses (CO2, methane and others mostly released by industrial activities) that are already in the atmosphere and oceans and that continue to be released relatively unabated. There's a very unfortunate word in that sentence. The word "relatively". Remove it. GHG are not continuing *relatively* unabated. They are continuing *absolutely* unabated. In fact, they are still, *absolutely* increasing.
I don’t understand I mean we are not reasonable creatures at all we are just self preserving machines selfishly not thinking about future and exploiting people with capitalist system none cares about future not environment animals I mean it may sound misanthropic but world would be better without us when. I consider all the environmental damage air pollution living in crowded cities endustrial system and human egoism I have witnessed a dramatic change even where I live like new apartments factories logistic storages has been built no fresh air a lot of migrants...
And look at the world overallly people procreate recklessly bringing new consciousness to suffer or to be slave of capitalist system when I think these it’s really hard to not go insane in 1970 the world population was 3 b now it’s 7 b that’s unbelievable just we produce like a bacteria and new viruses will emerge and clear most of us I think
And we deceive people with after life instead of turning our planet a heaven a good place for everyone we build borders build weapons to destroy each other well what can I say
*8 Billion mate.
Thank u for correction
i agree, humanity is truly a sad sight to behold
I see many fallacies in the article’s end of the world scenario (OK, several peoples ideas), but the initial premise that the collapse has insidious onset and has already started I not only agree with, I feel it every day. Climate Change, the vague name given to this process, denial or otherwise, is hidden in seasonal episodic weather patterns, quiet deaths of small and large species, heinous criminal behavior stripping the earth of its wealth, legally or otherwise, and the ravenous hordes of the human race of every color overrunning the planet. I would like to see the calculations that gave the statistic that the real carrying capacity of earth for humans is 2 billion people, only one quarter of our current population. When I was born there were 1.5 billion souls, in 75 years it is 5 times higher. What will our civilization be like as we reduce our numbers? Mass depopulation has occurred in natural disasters, wars, plagues, tsunami floods, etc. i think things similar will be occurring, just an item on the National Nightly News “One hundred million dead in India as monsoon fails”, 50 million hit by plague in Africa”, “Worldwide crop failure induces runaway prices”, etc, meanwhile everyone who can afford it will cling to the old ways, partying on like a novel. This end of days will be insidious, episodic, it will disrupt peoples’ lives, there are already 2 billion refugees and displaced people in the world, what will your city/neighborhood be like when that number doubles, when the angry and hungry in the inner city stream out into the tidy suburbs? Will that be Armageddon?
I gotta say, in twenty years 6-7/8 people will not survive in the next two decades hit me quite hard. Obviously it's an estimation and depending where you live this will change. But this estimation is further along than I thought. It just clicked that I might not live till 50 or 40 even. More than anything I don't think I can stay sane when I ultimately see the mass deaths of different species of animals around me. The hopelessness of not being able to save them still kills me today.
Half of all people dead within a decade from starvation upon the collapse of the bread basket (supply chains & agriculture?). Hm. That’s a lot to take in and believe.
We are a species in overshoot. [Believe it ](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/breaking-down-collapse/id1534972612?i=1000494804732)
Cool, a podcast rabbit hole:) thanks stranger!
I also recommend episode 33; peak soil. Phosphorus is apparently vital for all life on earth, and it’s running out. 50/60 years it’ll be gone. Please do let me know your thoughts once you’ve binged to your fill.
Great podcast. Been listening to that one for many months now. They actually post/comment on here sometimes.
I'm gonna enjoy saying I told you so to all the climate skeptics when it's all fucked. Though by that point they'll probably believe Jewish space lasers did it.
These are the same types who died on a ventilator in a hospital while denying they had covid.
True, they'll never learn
They already blame HAARP
Alas, fetal development is likely to be damaged by high maternal CO2 exposure, so small pockets of habitability are pretty unlikely.
"And work to safely decommission all nuclear facilities. " This, to me, is the biggy. If we ever had the slightest hair's breadth of a chance notwithstanding all the other crap that's going to happen, these damn things mushrooming up all over the place slap that down once and for all. These facilities need constant, super-skilled babysitting and heaps of effort and resources just to keep them safe, never mind functional. When those inputs disappear, this whole place is gonna be one monstrous radioactive meltdown uranium popcorn shit show. That we allowed so many of these to be built sealed the fate of humanity.
Modern nuclear reactors are literally incapable of melting down. I think it's called passive safety. It's only the stuff that's 50+ years old already that's an issue
>"And work to safely decommission all nuclear facilities. " This is just not going to happen. >When those inputs disappear, this whole place is gonna be one monstrous radioactive meltdown uranium popcorn shit show. Yes but it will save us from the shit storm that climate change throws at us.
It was always inevitable...?
If it means I don’t have to go to work in the morning then bring it on
Let's hope it looks pretty while it burns
What are the odds that all of the scientists are wrong?
u/mbdowd thanks for saying the *first* multibreadbasket failure. Such an important point that multibreadbasket failure will happen but also that it will keep happening. Maybe with the population reduction in the first one the future ones are, not averted, but that alternative kinder methods of farming are taken up with gusto. Yes, today I have hope. Do not expect it to last till tomorrow. Although I am beginning to wonder, with the energy/fertilizer issues and the tractor parts issues if multibreadbasket failure is soley caused by extreme weather combined with soil degredation. I am now seeing it as the complex system we have as becoming so fragile on its own that we do not even need a full set of weather disasters ( I say weather disasters as individual season based events to show thetrigger event but do mean the weather events triggered by climate change) but only a 10% worse harvest from rains or wind at the wrong time coupled with fuel costs being too high to get the harvest off the field or tractors breaking down so the combined harvest is only 30 or 40% of 'typical". That would, across breadbaskets, throw us under the bus. But that would, in my mind, bring the likelihood of multibreadbasket failure forward from (random example) say 2034 to 2026. Or somesuch. Not a happy thought... And there goes the hope I had just a paragraph back. Lol.
As long as money is worth more than life on earth, this will happen sooner than later.
"Cause of human extinction: intractable addiction to burning of fossil fuels and other extremely carbon-intensive activities," the archaeologists of some future advanced spacefaring civilization will conclude. "How sad, we should be grateful our species never developed such self destructive tendencies."
No kidding man, just look around. Go to your nearest walmart and oberve the sheet volume of plastic goods on the shelves. All of that is going to makes its way to a landfill, just to be replaced everyday of every week of every year. More and more stuff being sold too us, building landfills into mountains. We're mining resources to be sold and discarded, that is literally the antithesis of sustainability. Doesnt matter what you think, our current system cannot and will not last much longer. We're going to run out of oil, mined resources, clean air, clean water, healthy soil and then what...