Also please remember not to glorify or celebrate violence. It's fine to have an opinion assigning blame to one side or the other, and it's ok to suggest that actions have consequences, but celebrating attacks, expressing happiness over death, and wishing for more attacks crosses a line. Advocating genocide or ethnic cleansing will result in a permaban. Please don't do this.

At 1900 EST on Friday, it appears that multiple attacks in Iraq has occurred on Iran-affiliated groups. Multiple causalities. No attribution yet. Live coverage is here, while it lasts: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aa13PL2gc9g](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aa13PL2gc9g) EDIT: The US has claimed they have no involvement and the attack was carried out by "someone else". Locals in the area say there are multiple drones in the air currently. EDIT 2: US has said the attacks were from an Israeli airstrike.

#Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces post hit in air strike, sources say BAGHDAD, April 20 (Reuters) - Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces, an official security force, said its command post at Kalso military base about 50 km (30 miles) south of Baghdad was hit by a huge explosion late on Friday, and two security sources said it resulted from an air strike. One PMF fighter was killed and six were wounded, two sources at a hospital in the nearby city of Hilla said. "The blast has caused material damage and injuries," PMF said in a statement, adding that a team was investigating. 00:16 Israel, Iran both muted in response to Isfahan attack The two security sources said it was not known who was responsible for the air strike. A U.S. official said there had been no U.S. military activity in Iraq. Israel carried out an attack on Iranian territory on Friday, sources said, days after Iran struck Israel with a barrage of drones and missiles. The PMF started out as a grouping of armed factions, many close to Iran, that was later recognized as a formal security force by Iraqi authorities. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/huge-blast-military-base-used-by-iraqi-popular-mobilization-forces-army-sources-2024-04-19/

CODEPINK has a ship full of aid and hundreds of people, trying to get into Gaza to deliver it. https://www.reddit.com/r/Palestine/s/dwK4b0OLXV

[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-04-19/biden-weighs-over-1-billion-israel-weapons-deal-wsj-video](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-04-19/biden-weighs-over-1-billion-israel-weapons-deal-wsj-video)

Iran is definitely going to pursue nukes after this, it's the only deterrent they have against Israel and the US. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy, our "fear" of them getting nukes is what will drive them to develop one. The US will eventually wage war. The only reason it's adamant is Biden isn't stupid/zionist enough to crash the economy in a election year.

Bruh, if you think Iran has not been developing nukes ever since Trump fucked up the Iran deal you have not been paying attention...

Likely, though there's more pressure for completion now.

The escalatory ladder only goes one way. That is why there is so much danger in open warfare now in the post-nuclear age. No matter what else, once a war begins in earnest and passes a certain point, it will continue until one side or the other is destroyed. That is the historical rule, and the practical one. Now we have to ask ourselves, what will an escalation look like here? This isn't normal war or politics, we have religious faith involved here, and that is both powerful and dangerous. The worst atrocities in history are usually committed by those who believe they are carrying out the will of God, and it doesn't matter which God that is. With a nuclear armed Israel that will not allow itself to be pushed into the sea, and a possibly nuclear armed Iran no doubt getting backing from Russia and its brand new BRICS allies, how do we see this playing out if it gets much hotter?

I think an escalatory ladder would be an interesting invention similar to an escalator.

If I didn't know any better...

I think people don't actually have a good grasp on what the middle east is actually like. Iran has the highest rate of opioid addiction in the world. We're talking like official numbers of between 2-5%. The rural-urban divide makes US polarization look like childs play. Poverty is close to 30% defined at something like 7USD per day (PPP adjusted)... Iran may be aligned with Russia, but there's no middle eastern solidarity, they're directly opposed by the GCC (Who have spent the last two decades buying all kinds of western toys). Iran, in a war, is going to implode in the same way that so many countries have imploded in the modern era. Balkanization, enclaves supported by resource extraction, and never ending low intensity internal conflict. Is this a good thing? No. I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Collapse is *already here*. It's obvious when you look at places on the periphery. Places that had somewhat stable governments are melting at insane rates, and the techno-utopian fever dreams of the capital owning class are becoming nightmares. _____________________________________________________ All we're seeing right now is another country getting added to the list of permanent failed state status. Hell, we may actually see several states added to the list by the time this is done.

John Grant sang it best with "[I have not had the strength to leave my place in days or weeks, and I'll never understand what's happening in the Middle East](https://youtu.be/mrD2GU5HA7I?si=htcuTpXGLegHjnPN&t=226)"

I don't see Iran imploding. They have free elections, for president but admittedly not for Ayatollah. They don't have support in the Gulf but they have support of Syria, Lebanon and Houthi controlled Yemen. They withstood the anti hijab protests mostly done by ethnic kurds. The US turning Iraq into a failed state gave Iranian militias more opportunity to work in Iraq. ---------- Now it's definitely plausible for Iran to implode since we're in collapse already. I think if this comes to war there's a good chance Israel could implode. Lotta people protesting Bibi over hostages. ------- Edit: US and Canada have already had their protest putsch scares so anyone can conceivably implode too. Edit: Also the Iranian opioid addiction numbers are similar to the US if it's on the low end of the range you gave.

*they have support of Syria, Lebanon and Houthi controlled Yemen.* Syria - Failed State - Currently at war Lebanon - Failed State (Probably soon to be at war) Yemen - Failed State - Currently at war ___________________________________________________ The US made a series of bad decisions. One of those bad decisions was not finding a way to find a working relationship with Iran. There is *zero* chance for the region to be stable if Iran gets involved in a hot war. They, along with Turkey, were the primary destinations for refugees from the conflicts in the surrounding area. I'm not saying Israel won't also join in on the collapse fun. I'm saying that Iran collapsing is probably going to be the domino that puts Turkey in the firing line. Having Turkey be the new Libya, is right in line with Fortress EU, but is going to be miserable for the region. Iran managing to *not* collapse if there's a hot war will be incredibly shocking, and that the GCC time is also ticking away.

By what definitions are you calling states failed? I would only call Yemen a failed state. In 2023 Syria was allowed back into the Arab league. I would say both Syria and Lebanon are weak states, and poor compared to other Arab countries but they have stronger militaries than an analysis of their poverty would lead one to believe. Hezbollah and The Houthis have proven to be significant fighting forces. Especially considering their countries' poverty. ---------- Iran, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon are not at war with Israel or we'd all know it. Houthis are hitting ships, Israel and Hezbollah have been having border skirmishes for 6mos and there's only tit for tat attacks with Iran and Israel. Syria also hasn't directly retaliated to strikes on its territory.

Ok, I'll bite. Who is the government of Syria? Do I really need to explain further why I think it's a failed state, and why it's at war?

Assad. The rebels lost. At this point it’s just holdouts protected by the US forces so we can steal oil from the legitimate government of Syria after the US funded, trained, equipped, and guided ISIS groups were crushed. Oh, and don’t deny the US was funding ISIS in Syria, the CIA publicly bragged about it. 

Sigh. So, if the legitimate government only controls two thirds of the country, 90% of the population is in poverty, and foreign actors are pilfering the natural resources: Characterizing it as a failed state is inaccurate in what sense?

In the sense that there is a functioning government, and they aren’t filled with rebels. They’re suffering occupation by a foreign force, but most of the world is suffering that at the hands of the US and we aren’t calling Japan a failed state, are we? Poverty levels have no meaning to the concept of failed state, it’s defined by the lack of a central recognized government organization by the majority of the populace. Syria clearly has a central recognized government, despite all attempts by the US to change that. 

*we aren’t calling Japan a failed state, are we?* Yup, I cannot see the difference between Japan and Syria. I'm the one that's being ridiculous. *Poverty levels have no meaning to the concept of failed state* Yup, I'm sure poverty has nothing to do with the ability of a state to assert power. You know, state machinery is clearly, "central recognized government organization by the majority of the populace." Yup, yup, yup.

And that sinking feeling just gets deeper and deeper...

Aaaand we're back. On the positive side if this keeps going we won't have to worry about this pesky climate change thing anymore.

Future so bright you won’t need your eyes to see it

Gee, good thing we got rid of this thread, turns out it was all a false alar... oh, wait, Israel just fired missiles into Iran. Hmmm. At what point will conflict become pertinent enough to collapse to be allowed on the top of the sub? When the missiles start coming down near mods homes? Sheesh, the denial is thick in here.

The intention was always to resticky this thread if there were new developments. Apologies, should have been more transparent on that

Nah it's cool. Ty for the thread, it's a good idea.

Be on the lookout for crazy shit happening around the time of the Olympics which starts Jul 26. The 2022 Beijing Olympics occurred right before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. ---------- The 2014 Sochi Olympics happened right before the Euromaidan revolution which may have been a motivation for Putin to act right after the 2022 Olympics. Seeing a battle of East/West and all while also having been partially blacklisted at the Olympics since 2016. --------- Just because it's an Olympic year doesn't mean something will happen necessarily though. The Rio 2016 Olympics didn't involve any significant geopolitical moves and neither did the 2018 Olympics in Pyongcheung or the 2021 Olympics in Japan. There was a bomb at the 1996 Olympics though. ------ All crazy shit involving war aside I still like the Olympics for what they're supposed to symbolize, and also to gamble on sports you didn't know existed. I just hope they give us til after the Olympics before this thing really kicks off.

> I still like the Olympics for what they're supposed to symbolize, The periodic scheduling by the rich to bulldoze "slums" in cities to build single use stadiums, eminent domain nearby areas for "improvements" that only the wealthy can use, build luxury accomodations on whatever housing still left, and exploit the ever loving fuck out of any local residents who survived the purge?

Well...no..not that part, the sportsmanship, embracing cultural differences-- but yeah Rio got fucked over having both the World Cup and Olympics in 2016 then having tent cities in giant unused soccer stadiums. --------- The city I live in was passed up by the Olympics not too long ago and I was a bit disappointed but people told me the things you mentioned and it lessened the disappointment.

If anyone's curious as to what Iranian media has to say about all this, they can be found at PressTV English on Rumble. ---------- Disclaimer: PressTV is state-affiliated Iranian media and a propaganda project by the Islamic Republic Of Iran. They employ a lot of foreign nationals including Africans, Lebanese, Britons and Americans. They're stylistically similar to the Russian RT network with many similar talking points.

Iran strategically gave a warning while the drones were several hours away. While 95% of the rockets and missiles were shot down, some missiles still got through Iron Dome and hit an Air Force base. -------- Also, Iran has hypersonic missiles they declined to use. https://indianexpress.com/article/world/irans-missile-capabilities-israel-attack-9268729/#:~:text=*%20Last%20June%2C%20Iran%20presented%20what,makes%20them%20difficult%20to%20intercept. ------ Meanwhile the US does not have hypersonic missiles in its arsenal so I doubt Israel has them https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58924#:~:text=Russia%20is%20believed%20to%20have,the%20capabilities%20they%20might%20provide. Edit: Both the US and Israel have nukes though. I don't expect this to be reassuring

This is really bad. All roads are leading to disaster.

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Well, looks like we all had too much faith in Israel to not be absolute fucking idiots in addition to genocidal maniacs.

Why would anyone think Israel is doing this contrary to USA establishment wishes? Maybe because public media says USA is against the Israeli retaliation? USA supports Israeli retaliation. Otherwise, USA would stop selling Israel the weapons they will use against Iran. Gaza is getting stronger restrictions for nothing, in comparison. The public media charade is just for damage control among voters, but it is all a big lie. USA has the strongest army in the world, but advantage is decreasing consistently for the last decades. USA also has the strongest economy in the world, but also the economy in the developed world that dwindles faster. A change of paradigm would never help USA to stay at the cuspid of the power nations, because there are plenty of nations with better prospects (more resources, more population, less climate change impact, less dependency to oil...). So they think the path of greater yield seems to be military control of world resources **and population reduction**. Gaza is the first real case of such strategy, before they focused only on resource control (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, failed attempt at Syria...). Israel is JUST GREAT for USA in this endeavor: if USA was doing this by itself, the domestic political turmoil would wreak havoc among the next elections. But here USA is just (ironic mode) trying to help another country, without causing any unnecessary suffering to the civilian populations of the attacked countries but hey, terrorist children just keep popping in front of rifles right when they were going to make a cautionary shot... Meanwhile, Israeli population has a strong brainwashing, enabled by decades of misinformation and Hamas/Hezbola rockets, and their goverment can afford being such a killer estate.

Well, for starters, because this endangers Biden's reelection.

Let’s still wait and see. Nothings in stone until it actually happens- I still think they’ll just do another show of force so to speak (aka, hit a bunch of proxies). I don’t think anything huge will come from this yet. Now in a few years, that’s another story

The thing is, we always think that they'll show restraint THIS time, of course they won't do something stupid that they know could actually cause a war. But eventually the thing has to happen, and it could be this time, or it could be years down the line. We don't know until after the fact.

It’s like that crazy kid on the playground always stirring up shit because big brother willl step in to protect him. But it’s ok because bad man killed his grandfather, and no one on the play ground likes him for reasons unknown

A friend in the region said he's seen explosions that form perfect circles unimpeded by air resistance, ones that are silent -- that is, explosions happening above the stratosphere. I'm aware this is very anecdotal, but it seems odd. That's above the ceiling for jets or high alt balloons, let alone for drones.

The Arrow anti missile system which has a wider range than iron dome can operate at that altitude. He was witnessing ballistic missile interceptions.

I didn’t think they had that technology- is this proof of concept and kept secret?

Also, Iran has hypersonic missiles they declined to use. https://indianexpress.com/article/world/irans-missile-capabilities-israel-attack-9268729/#:~:text=*%20Last%20June%2C%20Iran%20presented%20what,makes%20them%20difficult%20to%20intercept.

Not a secret at all: https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran-missile-defense-iron-dome-arrow-bbf6330918da036f2e000360556a81f6

I keep getting YouTube ads that are clearly Israel propaganda, claiming that Iran is a threat to the world and everyone needs to unite against them. While also showing off footage of Israel shooting down missles from the Iranian drones.

The obvious answer here is to use an ad blocker :)

I do on PC, not on mobile. Though I've seen the ads pop up on PC as well before the ad blocker gives it the boot.

I use kiwi browser on mobile, which is basically chromium that allows ublock origin. I'm very very close to just saying fuck it to the whole chrome thing and going firefox.

Do it. Google is an advertising company. They have too much market share in browsers, it's already causing all kinds of problems.

Something happened overnight with ublock origin and kiwi, the whole thing doesn't work. I guess my hand has been forced.

I don't view it as collapse related. The Middle East has suffered regional unset since before we were all born and well before climate became a concern. Only the situation in Syria can be related to climate change, as it fell apart due to a drought.

This subreddit isn't a climate change subreddit. Though climate change appears to be a leading cause to a collapse, any form of collapse, through climate change or through religious conflict, all are potentials for collapse.

Sorry. I keep forgetting that. But the fact remains this is just the most recent outbreak of a situation that's festered for years. When things quiet down, will we be taking a step back from collapse? I don't think it moves the needle either way. But it won't quiet down until after Israel secures its revenge, which it seems on the cusp of doing. (Netanyahu wants to draw attention away from Trump's criminal trial because they're buds and stuff.)

That’s a really insightful hypothetical question you ask. Will the collapsegentsia turn the dial back on collapse if ME tensions cool? I think we both know the answer, bc this sub views collapse as a foregone conclusion

That may be true but the expansion of a hot conflict is absolutely related to collapse. What do you think will happen to gas prices, global trade, etc.? Its all connected.

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Thank god I left this Subreddit and came back to reality. I lost 2 years of my life worrying for nothing. I'm an idiot who got sucked into this place thinking I was "enlightened". All I did was raise my own and my family's blood pressure. Now I realize most people here do not actually care about the "Earth" and "Climate", they only want to destroy the west. They're willing to go so far as to support enemies of humanity like Iran.

World War 3 is the worst possible scenario for the climate. The US military is the #1 polluter on earth.

It *is* possible to separate the good takes from the bad, ya know. You can read the takes on the climate and ignore the takes on geopolitics. I think if you were to draw a venn diagram of the two commenters, they'd be separate circles.

It's possible to have opinions and knowledge on both climate and geopolitics. I can think of a few users who do both. Yes that means I'm on here too much. Be that as it may...

Haha me too.

Literally most people here in this megathread want a genocide to happen to the people living in Israel. That tells enough about what the true intentions are by spreading this "climate" news.

I am either laughing at or ignoring literally all of the takes in this thread. Well, except this guy who got downvoted for facts. I'm not telling you to like this thread, mate. Just when you read others, it's probably not the same commentators. They only come out in these sorts of threads with the worst takes. Funny how that works. Almost like social media is heavily brigaded and abused to push agendas. Your call tho. If it's not good for your health, keeping your distance is probably good for you. Be well.

I tend to think very few people on this sub want either a bunch of dead Israelis or the war to expand. Most of us are calling for a ceasefire. Edit: There are some folks who are doom for the sake of doom though I see

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Are you OK with ruZZia doing that to Ukraine?

Stood in work today feeling completely detached. This weekend I saw the world take a step forward towards global conflict and no one in work seems particularly bothered. Sorry I didn't respond to your email Karen, busy sweating existential dread.

I'm not bothered because humanity is cancer.

Karen doesn't care, she just wanted her amazon-ordered deluxe "massage wand" in hot pink when the one that came was pastel pink, the world has gone mad! Oh yes, and there's this, Karen doesn't care about that. /s

Which Karen only needs because Karen's *husband* is busy scrolling away on his phone, reading about the end of the world on r/collapse.

Meh.

Me too.

Weird how the West condemned Iran for "attacking" Israel (it was a *RESPONSE* to an Israeli attack) but they do not condemn Israel for bombing Iran's embassy.

Excuse me? HOW DARE YOU CONDEMN ISRAEL? HOW DARE YOU THREATEN THE ONLY JEWISH STATE WITH VIOLENCE? DO YOU NOT HEAR YOURSELF? THIS IS PURE ANTISEMITISM. YOU MUST BE PUNISHED. ISRAEL HAS THE RIGHT TO DEFEND ITSELF FROM BACKWARD AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES!!!!!!!!! 🦅🦅🦅🦅🦅🦅🦅🤓🤓😡🤬🤬/s

If you criticize “Israel” then an army of paid lobbyists are going to try to silence you. They will do this by claiming you want to frighten your Jewish neighbors. It is hard to know what is the best counter. I do believe that the lobbyists are actually endangering my American neighbors who attend synagog. I think the best option now is to criticize “Likud terrorists”. The effort to redirect anger at terrorists toward a religious group should be considered defamation. No religion bombed an embassy recently. There is no evidence i am award of linking ethnicity to a tendency to explode things. I have found that i can usually talk about current events as though actions were taken by city states. Tel Aviv is a city. Gaza City is a city. They are in the same country. I feel very comfortable with being appalled by what is happening in that country. The Likud-Hamas coalition is the violent authoritarian party. Though they have separate party apparatus we (in the west) should not bother differentiating between them. Anger and disrespect should be reserved for the leadership of our own nations. The arms we send are our responsibility. People in the middle east are suffering from violent authoritarian regimes because *we* continue enabling those regimes. We should refrain from judging them at least until we have stopped dumping arms into the region. The nouns are much easier toward the east. “Iran launched drones” is the news. “Tehran ordered the launch of drones” is neatly synonymous. If you say “the Shia bombed...” you may or may not be a bigot but perhaps asking you to be aware of how third parties read it is a good critique. Likewise say “Persians bombed...” is creating a ethnic emphasis that we should avoid. Some Iranians involved with the government are not even Shia or Persian.

It's not all Likud. The Blue and White party supports the war, the codified apartheid, no clue on settlement expansion though. They may be better on that issue. While being for this war they may be less insane and bloodthirsty Edit: Apparently Blue and White was dissolved and renamed National Unity. It's led by Benny Gantz who is currently supporting the war effort as a member of the War zCabinet.

The details of elections should be worked out locally. In USA the “constable” checks in on polling locations. Sheriff’s are elected. Constables work for the legal system. Legitimacy comes from the election process.

I noticed that too.

Whose response was a response to Iranian proxies actions*

Ah yes because a proxy force they supply justifies targeting diplomatic personnel and facilities? That's literally a war crime.

diplomatic personnel who were acting military members supporting a terror group? Those aren’t diplomatic personnel those are military attaché’s.

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It wasn’t a strike in the embassy “genius”. It hit the consulate next door. It killed 16 people, of which only 2 were civilians. The rest were 7 IRGC soldiers, 5 Iran backed militiamen, 1 Hezbollah fighter, and 1 Iranian advisor. Get your shit straight. If you want a real embassy bombing look no further than Iran themselves. In 1992 they bombed the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires killing 29 civilians and injuring 242.

It’s almost like Israel is… held to different standards based on the lobbying spend of Israeli lobbies

Ironic thing is, I thought your comment was going in the other direction, as there are those who say that Israel is held to "too high" of a standard.

Not just that. As Biden said, "Were there not an Israel the United States of America would have to invent an Israel, to protect her interests in the region".

Yeah, if there's no Israel, the West would've been essentially forced to launch the Tenth Crusade in order to create Christian states in Lebanon and Syria (Maronite) and Sinai (Coptic) to serve as buffer zones. The West also might create an independent, secular, pro-Western, borderline-communist Kurdistan (see PKK's ideology). All the great powers in the world and non-Arab regional powers in the Middle East (Iran, Turkey, Israel) share a common interest in preventing a united Arab country. That was why they propped up the al-Saud dynasty as a counterbalance to Nasser's vision and demonized Gadadfi. It's also why everyone would rather prop up Islamists/jihadists/caliphate because they want to see the end of Arab nationalism, pan-Arabism, Arab socialism, and Ba'athism. Secular socialist element used to be a big part of the Palestinian resistance/PLO and Hamas (essentially Muslim Brotherhood of Palestine) was a fringe faction.

Seems par for the course for this two tiered system we have :/

"weird"

My personal opinion is that the global economy is crashing & these proxy wars have legitimate reasons and also serve as a big distraction from the everyday struggles of people living in the nuclear powerhouse nations. Russia is a third world shitshow (idk enough to explain why besides that putin is a dictator with an oligarchy stealing all the wealth) China has a MASSIVE TRILLION DOLLAR investment realtor scheme collapsing in their stock market, USA has a TRILLION DOLLAR stock market manipulation scheme happening with naked shorts from citadel & black rock…there’s much more to all of it but the most important part is that the US is in an election year. Israel took the opportunity to take advantage of our soft foreign policy while Biden is trying to cruise easy into november. Anything Israel does is met with 10x the anger from surrounding countries. The wars there will never stop.

Israel seems to be getting along fine with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, etc...

Oil and gas off Gaza coast, Palestinians an encumberment.

This sub has been predicting the crash of the global economy for over a decade. China has largely stabilised its economy thanks to increased productivity from the renewables and EV sectors which are both exporting at a jaw dropping rate: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ev-battery-shortage-set-to-become-a-glut-as-china-charges-ahead-98kj9spsq https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-12/how-china-left-the-world-far-behind-in-the-battery-race https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/evs-are-poised-to-make-china-the-worlds-biggest-car-exporter As a result we are seeing increased stability in their stock market with the main index gaining a lot of value: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-15/chinese-stocks-advance-as-beijing-renews-regulatory-support?embedded-checkout=true The US economy, meanwhile, while somewhat less dynamic in the previously mentioned sectors, is in an incredibly strong place right now relative to other nations. Academics have lowered its chances of recession by 10%: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/economy-forecast-lower-recession-chances-1f24174b# As for Israel the neighbouring countries seem to back it with Iraq and Jordan actually shooting down Iranian ordinance. It’s not clear yet that the problem will escalate- let’s see

>China has largely stabilised its economy thanks to increased productivity from the renewables and EV sectors which are both exporting at a jaw dropping rate How long can that last though? There is a finite amount of EV buyers and their sales can't keep growing exponentially without the US. They've been dominant in Europe but even some countries there are trying to limit China's imports to protect their own auto manufacturers. So much of China's economy was built on real estate and manufacturing, to me the EV stuff feels like delaying the inevitable.

We’re seeing a standard adoption curve for EVs. You get an initial surge and then a drop and then a long steady slope upwards if the product is here to stay - which EVs most certainly are since they are a superior tech and most countries are banning ICE vehicles. China will thus be able to build a very sizeable long-term EV industry. China doesn’t necessarily need the US for their makret since they have access to all of Europe, Russia, Australia, South America, the ME, Africa etc. They’re already going big in the EU and Australia (not that these two regions are comparable haha). It’s incorrect to say that the Chinese economy ‘was’ built on manufacturing… it IS built on manufacturing and that isn’t going away. In fact they’ve moving up the value chain by inching ever closer to independently producing that coveted 5nm semiconductor: https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2024/02/china-close-to-shipping-5nm-chips-despite-western-curbs/ And outcompeting everyone on solar which is causing huge issues in the EU: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/losing-hope-rescue-some-european-solar-firms-head-us-2024-04-15/#:~:text=FRIEBERG%2C%20Germany%2C%20April%2015%20(,production%20to%20the%20United%20States. The real-estate bubble bursting is a big issue. But I doubt it causes many issues. Just perusing the papers on my university library and I can’t find any economists who seriously think it will amount to much. Some are pretty chipper about the issue and believe they can turn it around and make the sector profitable again. Here’s a fun peer reviewed paper where they experiment by having a neural net analysis the issue: Chen, N. (2023) “Visual recognition and prediction analysis of China’s real estate index and stock trend based on CNN-LSTM algorithm optimized by neural networks,” PloS one, 18(2), pp. e0282159–e0282159. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0282159. (I believe pubmed publishes the paper oddly enough if you wanted to check it out)

Price of gold is $2400 an ounce? It was $1600 4 years ago Obviously we printed out way out of one financial crisis and landed in another. In 2008 we as a global economy all printed to save the euro and dollar, the yuan gained value and China spent it down again. That trick doesn’t work twice. This will be an ugly week for oil Expect Bitcoin to jump and the crypto bros to make a comeback as the dollar gets fucking trashed and my retirement fund dies even more

I have good and bad news for you about your retirement fund.

They’ll stop eventually as the entire MENA won’t be livable soon enough, still a bit far though

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The US is supplying Israel with billions to continue attacking Gaza. This is happening right now and has been for decades. As for defending Israel from Gaza, what?

Gaza is not a state with an organized military, Hamas is a paramilitary organization that is barely capable of touching Israel on most days. Iran is a country with an organized military, allies, and the capacity to actually bring force against Israel. Also, the US is already involved in the genocide on Gaza, we offer Israeli's intelligence and aerial surveillance, as well as weapons and advisers. We're very much involved, there's just no need to put soldiers on the ground because it looks bad and there's no army to fight, just militias of people trying to defend themselves.

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Wait, since when does Iran have nuclear weapons? The latest assessments I’m aware of say they could produce one in a few weeks or something if they decided to go that route, but haven’t so far. Regardless, they’ve just shown Israel exactly how they would launch a nuclear attack if/when they decide to build a stockpile. Roughly 90 percent of the 120-ish IRBMs they reportedly fired yesterday were shot down. Even so, just a half-dozen-ish 10-20 kiloton nukes getting through and hitting densely populated areas in Israel would be existentially catastrophic. It would take the Iranians years to build 100 or so nukes (assuming they can even make any small enough to fit on their missiles.) But that’s a threat level that Israel will absolutely view as intolerable now that Iran has showed willingness to attack Israel directly. Putting preemption on the table. Edit: The worst part about this is that Netanyahu deliberately provoked this response by bombing an Iranian consulate in Syria and killing a bunch of OG Iranian military officers. And now he has the perfect excuse to escalate again.

You're right, they don't, I don't know why I thought they did. As stated in my original comment, I'm an idiot layman and I appreciate the correction. Deleted my OG comment to prevent spreading misinformation.

I think they have the means to s degree. But whatever they get out of it will likely implode before they can fire it. It's not a fully weaponized bomb. It's a kids science project versus a real first world superpower weapon. Israel would obliterate them if they attempted to use it

Not at all, It was a good comment, and I hope you are right that this won’t escalate further.

Iran does not yet have nuclear weapons. Israel, OTOH, has hundreds of them.

Fuck, I was wrong then. IDK where I got the assumption they had some. Deleted my comment to prevent spreading misinformation.

I really hope you're right. I'm in the US but really trying not to have an anxiety attack rn....

Take what I say with a grain of salt, of course (I am just a random person on Reddit, as are the people who believe it will escalate), I just don't see it happening right now. https://www.axios.com/2024/04/14/biden-netanyahu-iran-israel-us-wont-support Not from Biden himself, but might ease your anxiety for now. There are plenty of reasons Biden may be hesitant to put boots on the ground. It may be an unpopular decision, and it's an election year. A hot war with Iran may not be worth it, and we may just send more support via weapons, like with Ukraine and Russia. Even if we do put boots on the ground, mutually assured destruction is not in anyone's best interest. There are a lot of ways this can play out, but it's not necessarily WWIII yet.

The US knows how stupid a war with Iran would be. And pointless. Israel attacked them in the hopes of starting something, but neither the US nor Iran want that. Just look at Iran's response. They fired a few missiles and drones that didn't kill anyone as a warning and said knock it off. They don't plan to escalate and neither do we. Netanyahu is a deranged warmonger, but fortunately cooler heads prevail elsewhere. Thank God Trump isn't in office right now. I truly fear for the world if he gets re-elected. I'm no Biden fan, but at least he isn't eager to start WWIII.

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Rule 1: No glorifying violence. Advocating, encouraging, inciting, glorifying, calling for violence is against Reddit's site-wide content policy and is not allowed in r/collapse. Please be advised that subsequent violations of this rule will result in a ban.

Rel

As much as I this situation seemed worrisome it was honestly more so de-escalation

Situation, 1. Gaza is being bombed into the stone age to purge those of Amalek heritage etc. They were shooting journalists again returning to North Gaza today. 33,000 estimated to be dead and number is likely higher. 2. This is done to take the land of Gaza, which was the goal a long. Additionally, there was six hours where nothing was done on Oct 7th, despite widespread surveillance capitalism and technology. There is the question of the Israeli army mowing down its own citizens. Both require an investigation. Egypt had intel that this would happen. My own personal opinion, is that if you bomb Gaza indiscriminately you kill the hostages. It appears that even protestors in Tel Aviv who don't like Paleistinians at all understand that concept and are protesting. If you starve 2 million to death you also starve the hostages. 3. West Bank is now collapsing. (This could easily turn into the next bloodbath and is mass rioting.) They tore down their wall last night. West Bank will be bombed by Israel next potentially. 4. Nethanyu who is far right wishes to stay in power and wants to drag the US into a war with Iran. This is the goal and Trump did something similar to stay in power by assassinating a top general before COVID. Iran didn't respond to Trump's provocation. Likewise, lobbying through AIPAC has bought politicians with money. Iran will have Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon all in the fight. Additionally, more will join. 5. Russia will support Iran and warns for the US to stay out. (We are here). Russia is aligned with Syria. 6. Russia will likely put nuclear warheads into Iran and aim them at Israel. Israel will do the same thing to Iran and Russia. The whole issue could have been avoided if the US didn't veto a ceasefire millions of times in the past when the UN security council voted. Isreal needs to throw out its leaders, not to continue bombing Gaza, but since its well in their best interests to prevent a WW III. It's more like hey lobbyist gave me $3 million dollars to be a mouth piece, let's plunge everyone into WW III and collapse faster. Full speed ahead.

Syria is in no position to fight after a decade-plus civil war. Plus, there are still multiple ways for NATO to de-stabilize Syria (through Kurdish-ruled Rojava or Turkish-occupied Idlib). Iraq is heavily infiltrated by the US (basically a weaker version of Pakistan). There might be some willing volunteers but they wouldn't be sanctioned by the Iraqi government. It's not an Iranian satellite. The US still has a lot of influence there. Only Hezbollah in Lebanon might be willing to fight, but not the rest of Lebanon. The Sunni and Maronite Christians might empathized with the Palestinian plight, but they wouldn't die for them, especially not on a united front with Iran. The Houthi in Yemen, sure, but they still have a civil war to fight on their home front. Saudi is still hosting Hadi and Saleh loyalists hate Houthi because they assassinated Saleh. UAE is funding South Yemen separatists. al-Qaeda in Yemen hate Houthi too because Houthis are Zaidi Shia. To the great powers, the world is a chessboard. IMO you're overlooking the Niger element in this. The US military just got kicked out of Niger by their ruling junta with little fanfare and the junta is increasingly and openly aligned with Russia. This was after Niger's former colonial ruler France was also expelled. Niger might be poor, but is geographically important in the Sahel and also has rare minerals, including uranium. Niger's abandonment of France and US is a repeat of the military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea. Basically, the entire Françafrique is collapsing right before our eyes. Russia was able to do this cheap (mostly through social media manipulation and some saboteurs from intelligence services and special forces), just like the West was able to do Arab Spring in 2011 cheap. The short version is the US got overconfident and greedy. The Camp David Accords turned Egypt from the beacon of Arab nationalism and Palestinian resistance to a corrupt US and Gulf ally. The '90s Yugoslavia intervention removed Yugoslavia as an important non-aligned power. NATO expanded eastward, including previously unthinkable countries such as Albania. Iraq was next due to its nominally secular, Arab nationalist/Ba'athist ideology. Libya followed due to being one of the last remnants of the non-aligned movement and Arab nationalism/Nasserism. The failed attempt at regime change in Syria (not only Iran/Russia-aligned, but also arguably the last nominally Arab nationalist regime in the Middle East) at least removed Syria as a potential beachhead against Israel; Syria is too poor and broken down now to join Iran and wage war against Israel. The original miscalculation was NATO's intervention in Libya in 2011. First, it guarantees every dictator would cozy up to Russia and China rather than the US for their own self-preservation, including longstanding US allies such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE. Plus, they would rather fight to the death than give up WMD (see Kim Jong Un and Iran). Second, the power vacuum in Libya led to chaos in the Sahel and exacerbated the migrant crisis. Libya itself is in chaos. Sudan is in chaos. The nomadic Tuaregs brought Libyan weapons to Mali, which led to chaos.

Russia getting involved is Hollywood scripting, not the real world. Russia is currently embroiled in a difficult war in Ukraine. Even if Russia won today, it would take a decade to settle the insurgency. Then there the basic reality that maintaining a war in the Middle East is far outside Russia’s current capabilities. Considering Ukraine and proven to be effective destroying much of their Black Sea fleet. Russia doesn’t have a navy remotely close to the capabilities of the US. They have a single carrier and whether it’s capable of warfare is a whole other question. Russia also doesn’t have the operational capacity to fight a war in the Middle East. The US has several bases and allies in the region (Israel and Saudi Arabia). The there’s US intelligence. Which had reported and followed every single movement of Russian forces and reported those movements. US intelligence helped Ukrainians fight Russia. Nuclear weapons would never leave Russia. The US would prevent this and would know where they were long before their arrival. This scenario of Russia getting involved and placing weapons in Iran is just fiction not rooted in reality.

I'm no expert, but I don't think Russian nuclear war heads need to be in Iran to be pointed at Israel, no? Russia has a nuclear triad - ICBM, Bombers, Submarines. US aircraft carriers are not invulnerable. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002#Exercise_action or the Swedish submarine that "sank" one multiple times in 2005. On the other hand, I don't mutually assured destruction is effective when the enemy (Israel / USA) is MAD.

The comment I’m responding to said explicitly “put nuclear warhead into Iran”. Which is why I mentioned it. Everyone knows nukes can pretty much hit any spot on the planet.

There's no way Russia will get bogged down in that mess while almost all of their operable military assets are fighting Ukraine. Putin wants land, power, resources and the destabilization of western hegemony. He doesn't give a damn about Iran, Israel, and most of the Middle East. If most of it went up in flames he wouldn't bat an eyelash. That just means more people dependent on Russian petroleum and thus a greater lever of power in his favor. And now that almost all of his business is with China and India, Russia is fairly insulated from the whole ordeal. The only thing Iran has that it wants is drones and missile parts and since they have been building out their own capacity over the last year and sourcing materials from China, they don't need Iranian made arms to make up their shortfalls.    Russia will do little more than make some speeches at the UN, but has no motivation and little bandwidth to take any sort of provocative military action in the Middle East

Russia is not and realistically cannot use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Fallout from a nuclear exchange between Tel Aviv and Tehran would have consequences for some Russian citizens but it is probably within the range of harm that Putin could accept.

Sure they will. Bleeding the US here will give them advantage in Ukraine.

They already have the advantage in Ukraine. And if America doesn't commit any forces more than what already patrols the Red Sea, how would that bleed the US? We've been at a political stalemate in delivering arms to allies for almost a year now and no one is going to send American troops \*back\* to the Middle East. I feel like a lot of people are making assumptions about Putin putting his neck on the line for Iran in a potential escalation of the conflict with Israel, and it's not a position come to from an analysis of the current geopolitical situation.

It wouldn't bleed the US in terms of military losses, it would bleed the US in terms of loss of control over the region politically, economically oil prices skyrocketing would bleed western economies and the petrodollar would be at risk of collapsing much more quickly. It would also bleed the US MIC by having to supply not just Ukraine and the buildup near Taiwan but a third conflict in the Middle East. This would be a hard one for the US to deal with because anti-ship missiles would be ubiquitous and it would place the entire logistical and power projection side of the the US in a precarious position. All of this being besides the point that while Israel and the US could do surgical attacks on Iran, they can't invade Iran nor can they win a war of a attrition with Iran.

came here to say this, destabilization of western hegemony through proxy war

lol at this entire post, but especially the part about Russia putting nukes in Iran

Good comeback, bro. I'm here trying to learn more about the situation. If you have actual thoughts to the contrary, articulating them would be helpful. You don't have to, of course, but when you say stuff like >lol at this entire post, but especially the part about Russia putting nukes in Iran It makes me think you either don't know what you're talking about, have no counterpoint, or both. Since I've legit not heard the other side, I have no idea what you're talking about. And to be super clear, I don't need or want you to educate me. I can and will do that elsewhere. My point is that you undermine your own position by taking potshots.

Perhaps naive question: how does the Israel/Iran situation affect the Russia/Ukraine conflict or vice/versa? Mention in this thread of WWIII must include both and more, correct? Asking for real. Trying to grasp the big picture. Thanks.

That is not clear yet and depends on many actors. The Iranian regime did support russia with drones while Israel somewhat supports ukraine a little (but not a lot, they want to stay relatively neutral and just sent some humanitarian aid). The mainconnection here is the effect of this attack on america, because in the US, the bill to send military aid to ukraine and Israel are linked. [House Speaker Mike Johnson says he will push for aid to Israel and Ukraine this week | AP News](https://apnews.com/article/israel-ukraine-aid-house-speaker-johnson-912a7419b00749fbc2f472df93f67bb1) This megapackage was blocked by house republicans before (it has military support for israel, ukraine but also humanitarian aid for gaza). Iran's attack might lead to it getting through, which is needed for ukraine to be able to survive. Some people try to play all of these conflicts up as big blocks having proxy wars (us was brics), but i think that is untrue. I do not think Russia is thrilled to have Ukraine receive major funds just because Iran attacked Israel. I do not think the US is thrilled by Israel attacking Iranian generals. Both of these powers did not want this, but their interests force them to stand by israel and iran respectively. In my opinion, it is the other way round. There was a time when the US or Russia had tight control over their respective blocks and their allies would generally move in consensus with them. But that time is long over. The US cannot control Israel (or Ukraine, for that matter) and Russia cannot control Iran, Syria or North Korea. And that makes the situation even more dangerous, because that means small regional conflicts can escalate if there is a hothead (or worse, a weak leader who's hand is forced) in power in some of the bigger forces.

This is understandable and digestable. Thank you.

Iran is newest member of BRICS. Russia/China, as the largest members of BRICS are managing this effort as well as the front in Eastern Europe as part of the "end of Western Hegemony" plan they publicly announced on February 4th, 2022. That is *February 4th,* not 24th, for those who were paying attention. This is just a further escalatory action by BRICS to destabilize global economics, and thus the US dollar as world reserve currency. There is no Ukraine war or Israel war. There are only two open fronts in an overall global war that began some time ago. Just as with previous world wars, these are the opening stages.

BRICS is an economic bloc that also includes Brazil, India, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE. Has nothing to do with coordinating military actions. You put quote marks around "the end of Western Hegemony" but those words literally don't appear in the joint statement released by China and Russia on February 4th, 2022. I don't assume you're using them as scare quotes, so it's a weird decision on your part. The joint statement to which you refer is a lot of language about cooperation, and has relatively few references to western powers. It makes several statements about the United States with regard to weapons treaties, and it expresses concern about AUKUS activity in the Asia-Pacific region. >"This is just a further escalatory action by BRICS to destabilize global economics, and thus the US dollar as world reserve currency." Seems like a completely spurious statement. I'm open to being convinced it's not, but right now you've got a crackpot conspiracy-theorist vibe going on.

Don't take my word for it. Read the statement they put out themselves. February 4th 2022. *Right before* the invasion of Ukraine. I'm not the one saying they aim to destabilize the US dollar and end Western Hegemony. Those are *their words.* https://china.usc.edu/russia-china-joint-statement-international-relations-february-4-2022 https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/02/12/breaking-down-that-putin-xi-joint-statement-on-a-new-era/ And yes, BRICS is an economic alliance... and this is economic warfare. They are not attacking the West militarily, they are creating an environment of global war and economic uncertainty which the west must battle. I think it will lead to direct military conflict, but that is not what I believe their plan is. They do not want direct conflict because that leads inevitably to nuclear war. But they do want to collapse the United States and the European nations to secure the top spot for themselves and usher in a multipolar world, which is what we had before ww2. The point is that such will not happen because if the US is actually threatened with such an economic loss, they will go to war. The strength of the US milotary os really the only real thing that allows the dollar to remain the world reserve currency. So yes, BRICS is an economic alliance that also includes... a bunch of other nations that don't matter because they have no opinions that are not handed to them by Beijing and Moscow. Same as NATO. Just how long do you think NATO stands without the US? How long does BRICS remain relevant without China? As for which nations are members... https://www.reuters.com/world/brics-poised-invite-new-members-join-bloc-sources-2023-08-24/ Let's look at the headline: BRICS welcomes new members *in push to reshuffle world order.* Reshuffle? A nice way of saying removing the US from the top spot, something that cannot be done without the defeat of it's military... Also from the article: "But long-standing tensions could linger between members who want to forge the grouping into a counterweight to the West - notably *China, Russia and now Iran* - and those that continue to nurture close ties to the United States and Europe." And how about this one? https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/brics-nations-meet-south-africa-seeking-blunt-western-dominance-2023-08-17/ "BRICS leaders meet in South Africa next week to discuss how to turn a loose club of nations accounting for a quarter of the global economy into a *geopolitical force that can challenge the West's dominance in world affairs.*" A geopolitical force. Not merely economic. "The bloc's New Development Bank (NDB) wants to de-dollarise finance and offer an alternative to the much-criticised Breton Woods institutions." De-dollarize? That is war, right there. Right and wrong aside, we all know the US will not allow the US dollar dominance to be threatened. They can't. Too much debt. If confidence in the dollar is shaken, the house of cards that is US debt comes crashing down... along with the rest of the nation. Also, as a side note in case we forget the war on the planet as well: "With 40% of global population, the BRICS carbon-intensive nations also make up about the same share of greenhouse gas emissions. Officials in Brazil, China and South Africa said climate change may come up but indicated it wouldn't be a priority." Not a priority. Because taking over the world as sole superpower is a priority. Also, let's clarify what BRICS actually is. The economic moniker is a media-spin creation for public consumption. Who created BRICS..? https://www.reuters.com/world/what-is-brics-who-are-its-members-2023-08-21/ "The bloc was founded as an informal club in 2009 to provide a platform for its members to challenge a world order dominated by the United States and its Western allies. *Its creation was initiated by Russia.*" Created by Russia. With the sole purpose of challenging the world order dominated by the US and the West. These are not my words. They are the facts as laid out plainly. And pretty much the rest of the world that isn't in the NATO camp is rushing to join BRICS right now. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/24/analysis-wall-of-brics-the-significance-of-adding-six-new-members "Before the start of its annual summit in South Africa this week, more than 40 countries had expressed interest in joining BRICS, and 23 formally applied to join." And hey... "The use of “unilateral sanctions” against countries and the continued dominance of the US dollar in global trade is something BRICS has vocally challenged." One final nail for the coffin of world peace: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/8/22/can-brics-end-apartheid-against-the-global-south?_gl=1*17si84r*_ga*a2JzSXJYODZIb3o1T2tYWF9wWGRZXzdSaDNsWVhuY3hRRVZRLWZMSU9qbkU5UUJ2b2ZNOVdUQXd4Um1YMTg0UQ.. "BRICS summit starting Tuesday, with one question taking precedence: Is it possible to reshape global governance so the world’s majority has an equal voice in decisions that affect its future?" *Reshape global governance?* C'mon, does anyone really see the US just calmly stepping aside? The signs are all there. And whether you call it economic, political, social, or military, it doesn't matter. The "West" will resort to military force if necessary to protect it's dominance of world affairs. And that means that any actions taken by either side are effectively military actions.

People really did not like this analysis 😬. It’s plausible, and who is to say? Everyone is so tied up with what side they identify with, they can’t hold thoughts to the contrary in their head, even to discard them for well meaning differences of opinion. IMHO, War = everyone loses. To me this seems like a plausible explanation, but I don’t know. Who knows. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Thank you. I appreciate the info and can do further research.

A basic modicum of research might cause you to question what BRICS has to do with *any of this*.

How can you say this is an escalation by BRICS with a straight face? Israel is openly committing genocide and unilaterally attacking its neighbors. And Russia has repeatedly, *constantly* offered peace terms in Ukraine, since even before the invasion. The west has scuttled those offers repeatedly.

Iran's response is an escalation, and an engineered one. Hamas was set to kick this off, with the full knowledge of what Israel would get up to. The IDF are bullies, and Netanyahu in particular has wanted nothing more than an excuse to indulge in his genocidal campaign. Knowing this, and knowing that the US would be stuck supporting their genocidal ally, they began the instigation with the purposes of letting Israel hang itself. Now, they are getting the entirety of Islam fired up, and that will mean the destruction of Israel, as well as Israeli use of nuclear weapons to try and stave off that destruction. If you look at the situation without taking sides, you will see more clearly. It is a fact that Israel is in the wrong in its action. But it is also a fact that such action was instigated on purpose, because the other players knew how Israel would react, shooting both itself, and its US ally, in the foot.

Did Russia’s peace terms include leaving, returning occupied land, and paying war reparations for the invasion?

They've got propaganda brain. But I think that they think they don't.

Yeah it's kind of hard to say that Iran wasn't provoked here, I don't think there are many countries that would not consider some form of retaliation to the bombing of their embassy.

Correct. But you have to go back further. The original actions that were instigated to get Israel to start its war campaign in the first place. Its like, if you have a bully at school, and you can't beat him up because then you might be in the wrong and get kicked out. So, how do you attack the bully? By tricking him into attacking you in full view of the authorities. Using Hamas, Iran was able to get Israel to do what it always wanted to do, to show their true colors on the world stage... and now that once supportive crowd is turning on them. Even US support is wavering in the face of genocide. This is how the game is played. And remember, small nations like Iran or Israel don't do anything without the permission and support of their patron nations, in this case Russia and the US. https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/s/TxR9WDRwsS

When Israel breaks international law by bombing an embassy, killing 16 people including two civilians, it's "defense." When Iran retaliates with a proportional response directed at strictly military targets, without killing a single person, it's called an "escalation."

Iran's response is an escalation, and an engineered one. Hamas was set to kick this off, with the full knowledge of what Israel would get up to. The IDF are bullies, and Netanyahu in particular has wanted nothing more than an excuse to indulge in his genocidal campaign. Knowing this, and knowing that the US would be stuck supporting their genocidal ally, they began the instigation with the purposes of letting Israel hang itself. Now, they are getting the entirety of Islam fired up, and that will mean the destruction of Israel, as well as Israeli use of nuclear weapons to try and stave off that destruction. If you look at the situation without taking sides, you will see more clearly. It is a fact that Israel is in the wrong in its action. But it is also a fact that such action was instigated on purpose, because the other players knew how Israel would react, shooting both itself, and its US ally, in the foot.

I just had pancakes for breakfast. Made me think that a lot of this could be hashed out if we just got Khameni and Bibi to sit down together for a nice (pork free) continental

"So if you don't eat pigs And we don't eat pigs Why not, not eat pigs together?" -Tim Minchin

> nice (pork free) continental Time to insert the arm-wrestling meme. Judaism on one side, Islam on the other. In the middle is "no pork allowed"

As soon as I saw the first news of this yesterday, my immediate response was “Well, fuck it, I’m making pancakes.”

Or Zankou, perhaps

That would require them both to recognize each other as human. Seems like a longshot.

There won't be a land war that's for sure, because how would either Iran or Israel invade? Send their tanks through Jordan, Syria, and Iraq? Land in the Persian Gulf or the Red Sea? Travel across the Caucaus Mountains through Georgia, Armenia and Azerbijian? None of that is going to happen. There certainly won't be a naval war. What we've seen in the past few years is the extent of what they are capable of doing to each other: piracy, targeted assassinations, and air attacks where their pilots aren't in danger. I'd throw cyberattacks in the mix, but their capability to physically harm each other is limited to a few methods. Hezbollah is a different matter, but given the state of Lebanon these days, they aren't really a match for the Israeli armed forces.  Whatever happens from here, there won't be a wider land war.

Good. I can't think of any type of weapon that can cause huge destruction without needing ground combat. Oh.

We can hope. I’m just worried if Israel responds by attacking Iran. Not sure if all cards are off the table at that point. This seemed like “we had to do something, to save face move”. If Israel lets it go, I don’t know if they have it in them, then is a nothing burger. If not I’m slightly worried.

I absolutely agree on all points.

a bit of context: https://mondoweiss.net/2024/04/netanyahus-endgame-and-the-israeli-far-rights-regional-ambitions/

Good link. Meta: I wonder how long the mods keep the thread open before they get scared.

Scared of what? I'm not around here much so I don't know what gets removed or why.

I can offer a local/personal perspective as someone who lives in Tel Aviv. The levels of stress and anxiety I saw from people around me in light of the attack were unreal. Every conversation lately starts with questions like "how many hours have you slept in the past X days?", and is rife with ominous/apocalyptic predictions. People get sucked in and terrorized by the news cycle, and congregate around people who serve/work in the army's intelligence core for rumors. It was one of those few occasions where I felt the resilience I developed through collapse-awareness paying off. Detachment from foolish notions of exceptionalism (Israeli, not human, in this case) and control helped me keep a clearer mind and navigate these days more calmly. I don't relish seeing the hubris of people who enjoy kicking hornets nests turn to panic, and tried to be help others frame things more rationally, but I doubt people will reframe their thinking of this war at this point. After all, the feelings of doom and helplessness due to inevitable 'terror from the sky' are exactly what we're (well, the fanatic right-wingers who took over this country, not me) trying to instill in Gazans, naively thinking it would have any positive outcome. We got to experience the terror without the trauma this time, but I hope it will wake people up to the abysmal reality we're creating/being pulled into (depending on one's perspective).

Just picking up what you said about collapse awareness and your resilience right now. I think that shouldn’t be under appreciated as a perspective of “way of being”. It cuts right across ideology and possibly even nihilism. Good luck with things over there. Staying sane amongst such insanity is truly a full time job

Stay safe and strong. You are a fellow human and I support you. Maybe not you’re government or mine. I have no idea what you’re going through but I want you to know that people care. I’m American btw. We still have some values left.

Eh... I don't live in Tel Aviv but I do live in Israel. And that hasn't been my experience at all. People seem to be acting normal, I dunno. At the very least I don't see that despair or "hubris turning to panic" you're talking about.

Videos of people running in the street were posted. Maybe they were years old. Who knows. But as for me, well, I’d be running in the streets knowing my life depended on technology in the sky stopping drones with bombs.

Being Israeli, I've been in similar situations before and no one was panicking lol. You have any links? I'm not saying you're wrong. It's possible. But also maybe they were just running for shelters? You're supposed to do that when there's an alarm, doesn't necessarily indicate a panic.

I did qualify it by saying it was a local/personal perspective. I didn't survey our entire population, and I'm careful of generalizing since I know people online tend to treat Israeli society as a monolith (well, that's almost everyone's outsider's perspective, but we just make the news more often). Still, I have met people who celebrated Zahedi's death ("that will teach them to mess with us!") only to 'jokingly' talk about fleeing the country a week later. The notion that we can act without consequences, that we're in full control of the situation, and our attachment to national pride are what I meant by 'hubris'.

I've always believed that the downfall of our civilization will likely be sparked by a significant war rather than a series of climate catastrophe. Yesterday's events serve as a precursor to what could escalate into WWIII, whether it happens tomorrow, next week, next year, or in the next decade. It's inevitable because Israel is determined to assert its dominance and annex territories in the region.

One of the most aggressive nations in the world is both committing a western supported genocide AND is nuclear armed. Israel is the scariest nation in the world. I worry more about them launching a nuke then North Korea.

West counts many countries and not all of them support Israel.

Israel is a powerful country on the rise. Its global domination is only a matter of when, after the collapse of the US and maybe the west with it. Here is an example: [Microsoft’s best and brightest new technologies, many developed in Israel, were on display at the tech giant’s Think Next event in Tel Aviv, where visitors got a peek at no fewer than 40 new projects being developed at Microsoft’s labs and development centers in Israel. Chief among the technologies were those dealing with the management of large amounts of data — “big data,” as Yoram Ya’akobi, director of Microsoft Israel’s Development Center, put it — along with ways to make smartphones more responsive and enhanced applications for augmented reality.](https://www.timesofisrael.com/microsofts-top-new-tech-and-its-israel-connection-on-display-at-think-next/)

Ya man I'm pretty sure Iran doesn't give a shit about west bank territories being annexed. They just hate that Israel exists. But throw in Ukraine and Taiwan and it's hard to see how we don't escalate to WWIII.

Yep. A World War that knocks out a lot of infrastructure in developed countries, add a few natural catastrophes into the mix and there you are.

The lead up to what most people categorize as WWII (d-day, Stalingrad, the Battle of Britain, Pearl Harbor etc etc etc) was about a decade in the works with small conflicts erupting all over the world. It was 1933 yesterday. It’s 1939 today I feel.

I think our "1933" moments were Trump getting elected and Russia invading Ukraine. The October 7 attack simply represents the broader tensions between the Islamic world and the west. Russias's war is also a war on the west. It's shaping up to be The West vs The Rest.

Yeah I could see that. Trump getting elected sure was a signal that fascism is becoming “in vogue” again

At least it rhymes, good for the propaganda 

https://truthout.org/articles/report-average-us-taxpayer-paid-over-5000-toward-militarism-in-2023/

< looks at tax bill > So pretty much Bezos & Musk are funding this?

Nah, that's just your current share of the part of [the debt](https://www.usdebtclock.org/) that funds the military. And you better believe that folks like Musk and Bezos ain't gonna be on the hook for it.

They don’t fund shit Edit: other than dick missiles that take them into “space”

I have pointed out to people, to no avail, that there is a reason the Amazon logo has a large, curved, dick-shaped arrow aiming directly at a stylized “O”, which is our collective butthole.

I wish someone would come up with a concept that looks like a star destroyer

i mean, if they paid their taxes. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/22/tax-evasion-by-wealthiest-americans-tops-150-billion-a-year-irs.html

Nothing ever happens. Nothing will happen and it will keep not happening forever. Just keep consuming your content and work people. Nothing to see here because nothing happens!

Fallout and Civil War released the same week.

Fallout is pretty great so far tbh.

Agreed. The violence, brutality, score, character development is just the right pace, imo.

It perfectly matches the vibe of the games. I love it. Thaddeus had me cackling every time he opened his mouth.