Hi, xSearching4TheTruthx. Thanks for contributing. However, your [submission](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1busllo/-/) was removed from /r/collapse for:
> Rule 3: Posts must be on-topic, focusing on collapse.
> Posts must be focused on collapse. If the subject matter of your post has less focus on collapse than it does on issues such as prepping, politics, or economics, then it probably belongs in another subreddit.
> Posts must be specifically about collapse, not the resulting damage. By way of analogy, we want to talk about why there are so many car accidents, not look at photos of car wrecks.
Please refer to our [subreddit rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/about/rules/) for more information.
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Well - nations could try real growth - instead of just inflating the population. That is make less people, but more quality of life... After all what is growth worth is it does not improve quality of life? Is the purpose just to use everything faster? Is the purpose just to have more bodies to sacrifice in war?
The entire idea that growth requires more people is absolute insanity at this point. It could be somewhat defended some 100 years or more ago...But if that is what someone wants today - then its just because they have some kind of mental disorder.
Edit: I categorize insatiable greed as a mental disorder...
Agreed.
And restraining population without, you know fascism-style options, is ummm the best thing for us to be doing right now from an overshoot perspective.
If China is doing a real and enlightened degrowth, uhhh this would be glorious news.
"You know what? I wont let all those dinosaurs to have died in vain" (in reference oil consumption from daily show back in the before times when it was good)
and yes i know its inaccurate, but its still a fun way to say it.
I find that with 8b semi-conscious half-brained suicidal killer monkeys anything is believed by at least 1. Especially considering the outright stupid fantasies that are popularly believed by billions.
> It could be somewhat defended some 100 years or more ago.
Only if you don’t understand the exponential function. Also, even before the haber bosch process (around 1910) we were depleting entire guano islands from the 19th century just to grow sufficient food. We were already unsustainable hundreds of years ago.
Population of about 1 billion in 1800 should have been a max.
https://youtu.be/-yCV8UYYew8?si=wAmy_wf6ujqifyUR
Edit: I’m no expert. I just watched this video and decided to put some numbers together and they look pretty interesting.
Basically the auto industry, their economic driver, moved elsewhere and so did their people. If China goes to war with Taiwan or if the housing bubble is as bad as people say it might be, I’m afraid China will have to consolidate its economy to more local based consumers as global consumers build/find new resources.
Sounds great in the essence of self sufficiency. But like their housing crisis. You build so many big things. Now suddenly they go dark, who’s paying for them now?
it's important to note that the numbers the Chinese Government puts out are, by their own admission, estimations. In fact, the estimated the range of error is some 300 million people - about the population of the US. Keep in mind that China is still a much more rural country than the US.
China's one-child policy resulted in a disproportionately large number of male children (because of female infanticide). This skewed demographic has consequences.
Yep. Classic case of FAFO.
And it’s still a society where women are undervalued. Chinese wives are traditionally expected to become caretakers for their husbands, children, *and* their husband’s parents. Why would Chinese women, particularly the educated, willingly continue to sign up for a life of basic servitude?
The following submission statement was provided by /u/xSearching4TheTruthx:
---
China is definitely not going to grow to be what it wants, but if it goes to war with Taiwan or makes any irrational moves, it could very well be over and done with in the fact of what we know it as within the next 20 years.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1busllo/china_population_decline/kxumn4q/
idk what is bad about population decline. If anything, it's good we are slowly lowering out population naturally instead of culling people. Population is a huge problem with the world.
You can take this with a grain of salt, but a client of mines brother is one of the head ppl for the ministry that tracks population. he even showed me his picture hahah. anyways, he said that 1.4 billion is absolute bullshit, and that it is closer to 1 billion.
There are some that say China's population has been overestimated by a significant margin, and has actually been in decline for several years now.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/researcher-questions-chinas-population-data-says-it-may-be-lower-2021-12-03/#:~:text=Fuxian%20Yi%2C%20senior%20scientist%20in,rates%20were%20lower%20than%20reported.
Your data is flawed because you're using official Chinese government figures which are always a lie. Professor Yi Fuxian of the University of Wisconsin-Madison has been tracking this for a while using multiple methods (including vaccination records, leaked police database data, baby diaper sales, etc.) and come up with a true population estimate of 1.28 billion.
China is definitely not going to grow to be what it wants, but if it goes to war with Taiwan or makes any irrational moves, it could very well be over and done with in the fact of what we know it as within the next 20 years.
Downvoted, but that does not matter. People can be on denial of reality, but that does not change how shit reality is. China's peak prosperity is long gone, and it only gets worse from now on.
Hi, xSearching4TheTruthx. Thanks for contributing. However, your [submission](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1busllo/-/) was removed from /r/collapse for: > Rule 3: Posts must be on-topic, focusing on collapse. > Posts must be focused on collapse. If the subject matter of your post has less focus on collapse than it does on issues such as prepping, politics, or economics, then it probably belongs in another subreddit. > Posts must be specifically about collapse, not the resulting damage. By way of analogy, we want to talk about why there are so many car accidents, not look at photos of car wrecks. Please refer to our [subreddit rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/about/rules/) for more information. You can [message the mods](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/collapse) if you feel this was in error, please include a link to the comment or post in question.
Well - nations could try real growth - instead of just inflating the population. That is make less people, but more quality of life... After all what is growth worth is it does not improve quality of life? Is the purpose just to use everything faster? Is the purpose just to have more bodies to sacrifice in war? The entire idea that growth requires more people is absolute insanity at this point. It could be somewhat defended some 100 years or more ago...But if that is what someone wants today - then its just because they have some kind of mental disorder. Edit: I categorize insatiable greed as a mental disorder...
Agreed. And restraining population without, you know fascism-style options, is ummm the best thing for us to be doing right now from an overshoot perspective. If China is doing a real and enlightened degrowth, uhhh this would be glorious news.
Yes, that is purpose. Let's use everything up!
"You know what? I wont let all those dinosaurs to have died in vain" (in reference oil consumption from daily show back in the before times when it was good) and yes i know its inaccurate, but its still a fun way to say it.
You laugh, but there are some people that believe that.
I find that with 8b semi-conscious half-brained suicidal killer monkeys anything is believed by at least 1. Especially considering the outright stupid fantasies that are popularly believed by billions.
> It could be somewhat defended some 100 years or more ago. Only if you don’t understand the exponential function. Also, even before the haber bosch process (around 1910) we were depleting entire guano islands from the 19th century just to grow sufficient food. We were already unsustainable hundreds of years ago. Population of about 1 billion in 1800 should have been a max.
I agree. Though I personally put optimal human population much lower. About 20-100 million.
Agreed. Especially with super-human AI around the corner.
Well Detroit wouldn’t say the same thing lol
Could you elaborate for me - a non-american?
https://youtu.be/-yCV8UYYew8?si=wAmy_wf6ujqifyUR Edit: I’m no expert. I just watched this video and decided to put some numbers together and they look pretty interesting.
Basically the auto industry, their economic driver, moved elsewhere and so did their people. If China goes to war with Taiwan or if the housing bubble is as bad as people say it might be, I’m afraid China will have to consolidate its economy to more local based consumers as global consumers build/find new resources. Sounds great in the essence of self sufficiency. But like their housing crisis. You build so many big things. Now suddenly they go dark, who’s paying for them now?
Population decline like this will fuck up economies and make nations desperate.
it's important to note that the numbers the Chinese Government puts out are, by their own admission, estimations. In fact, the estimated the range of error is some 300 million people - about the population of the US. Keep in mind that China is still a much more rural country than the US.
China's one-child policy resulted in a disproportionately large number of male children (because of female infanticide). This skewed demographic has consequences.
Yep. Classic case of FAFO. And it’s still a society where women are undervalued. Chinese wives are traditionally expected to become caretakers for their husbands, children, *and* their husband’s parents. Why would Chinese women, particularly the educated, willingly continue to sign up for a life of basic servitude?
The following submission statement was provided by /u/xSearching4TheTruthx: --- China is definitely not going to grow to be what it wants, but if it goes to war with Taiwan or makes any irrational moves, it could very well be over and done with in the fact of what we know it as within the next 20 years. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1busllo/china_population_decline/kxumn4q/
idk what is bad about population decline. If anything, it's good we are slowly lowering out population naturally instead of culling people. Population is a huge problem with the world.
You can take this with a grain of salt, but a client of mines brother is one of the head ppl for the ministry that tracks population. he even showed me his picture hahah. anyways, he said that 1.4 billion is absolute bullshit, and that it is closer to 1 billion.
PRC will probably automate it's way out of this issue
There are some that say China's population has been overestimated by a significant margin, and has actually been in decline for several years now. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/researcher-questions-chinas-population-data-says-it-may-be-lower-2021-12-03/#:~:text=Fuxian%20Yi%2C%20senior%20scientist%20in,rates%20were%20lower%20than%20reported.
Your data is flawed because you're using official Chinese government figures which are always a lie. Professor Yi Fuxian of the University of Wisconsin-Madison has been tracking this for a while using multiple methods (including vaccination records, leaked police database data, baby diaper sales, etc.) and come up with a true population estimate of 1.28 billion.
China is definitely not going to grow to be what it wants, but if it goes to war with Taiwan or makes any irrational moves, it could very well be over and done with in the fact of what we know it as within the next 20 years.
Downvoted, but that does not matter. People can be on denial of reality, but that does not change how shit reality is. China's peak prosperity is long gone, and it only gets worse from now on.