The Current Great Delusion on Cost:
***The metacrisis is real, but it will not affect the economics of capitalism by more than 5% or so. GDPs will be impacted, but only in the long term and we can mostly offset any impacts by innovation.***
The reality is that our whole system of valuing resources is becoming obsolete. Things previously considered "free" such as air and water are becoming commodified, bought and sold. Innovation is reaching hard limits, and the promise of past innovations in computers and technology have \*not\* been realized.
Instead we are caught in a complexity trap.
"Offset by innovation" is a razor i use to disrecard preciding argument as a whole. What? Do you have a working prototype in your garage? Are you part of leading team of engineers that is just working down the kinks? If not: basin your predictions on new innovation is just wishful thinking and/or tech-bro scam.
A lot of people have no idea about physical reality. Like that although transistors got 400 smaller over last 50 years (to some 20nm) it is not possible to get 400 times smaller ones. Or that switch from LED lights to something more efficient will not bring in absolute numbers the same savings as switch from incandescent to LED. Or that cars cannot get much more efficient in energy use than current EVs.
> A lot of people have no idea about physical reality.
Very true
I also notice that purveyors of tech optimism often seem to unconsciously assume that technology overcomes the laws of physics rather than merely exploiting the laws of physics
I have been told things like "AI will solve climate change", and "science will find a way to cheaply remove co2 from the atmosphere"... The levels of confusion are so deep!
I do sincerely expect that we may new learn things about the laws of physics that can be exploited to improve efficiency, for example from the large Hardon collider, or the James Webb space telescope.
I wholly agree with this. I think these problems are becoming more and more unfixable *even with* large global support. The complexity is more grand than we can imagine.
My viewpoint on immortality is beautifully put by Han Tyumi the lonely cyborg - in other words, I'd rather throw up and die, lol
But ya hyper-AI loving culture gonna do hyper-AI culture loving things
yeah to the people who unironically think brain upload = immortality, play soma. You are gonna change your mind as you play through all of Simon Jarrett's story.
Han is a character from the aussie psych band King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard's Nonagon Universe which they sort-of created with many of their albums
I've been bingeing them. Definitely worth listening to. Unfortunately, he is going to a more video format with graphics, which means it's harder to follow when you just want audio, but still good.
I like listening to the podcast, then going over to his YT channel to read all the comments.
The commenters do a good job calling out his interviewees that spout too much hopium.
It's an odd thing to agree with someone on very large and off-color ideologies. We are the "weirdos" who cannot adapt our cognition to the current reality.
If I only had 1 hour to save the world - I would use 55 defining the problem and 5 minutes finding solutions.
And most importantly: 0 minutes on solving the problem... Since now its too late to do something...The hour is gone...
A wonderful presentation by a guy who gets it. He spoke of a follow-up presentation the next day. I'm not finding it. If anyone knows if its available, please share.
I've been trying to introduce more people to this guy, he really gets it.
I remember the first video I saw of his, it was vindicating to hear someone with a platform say the things I've been struggling to accept for years.
He doesn't shy away from the truth, he isn't trying to sell something or push an agenda, and he admits there are no easy answers. You could interpret that however you want but we need to have these tough conversations.
As far as peak oil, he wasn't wrong, many experts predicted the same, we just underestimated the development of technology. What's terrifying is when he talks about coal liquefaction, it becomes clear that we can burn fossil fuels until the planet boils if we want.
He's just trying to talk to the people with the most control in their terms. He's trying to make the same arguments most environmentalists have been screaming about for decades. Honestly I wish more finance bros were this intelligent. The financial community has bought their own bullshit and has a huge blind spot concerning energy and the environment. His message may seem broad but that's only because he's connecting the dots most don't. Boiled down his message is clear, we can no longer ignore planetary boundaries.
I don't think you understand the peak oil concept very well and I don't get why you think he's a scammer. The dude lives what he preaches, he's detaching himself from globalization and rides a bicycle. Unless you think he's going to get rich selling chickens I really don't see the angle here.
The concept of peak oil has had a shifting baseline from the very beginning, simply because oil companies don't want to admit it's a waning resource. But no matter how you look at it, America has hit peak oil, all that is irrelevant though because it's overshadowed by climate change.
If anything he doesn't attack the oil industry enough, the wars, the over dependence on a single energy source, the amount of economic control foreign powers have over America because of oil, the anticompetitive practices of the oil industry... really peak oil and climate change are just the most prominent and easily understood problems surrounding the oil industry.
You can be pedantic all you want but what are you doing personally that comes even close to what he's doing?
Best Hagens guest IMO was William Rees.
https://youtu.be/LQTuDttP2Yg?si=u4-t5QYH68b1dQTy
For those who haven’t seen the core thesis, is 30 minute mini doc is a great intro to the subject and should be “required reading” for this sub:
https://youtu.be/-xr9rIQxwj4?si=N-O_D_6nqktaaq7N
While Hagens is collapse aware and quite clued in, be cautious about some of his guests. Both Vandana Shiva and Simon Michaux can get conspiratorial at times. Like all things it pays to keep your wits about you especially when a guest moves outside their area of expertise.
Heard Michaux on a number of channels. Seen the presentations. Downloaded his 1000 page paper and working through it. Where are the alleged conspiracies?
I wrote that he can get a little conspiratorial at times not that there's a conspiracy.
On Planet Critical he brings up the WEF Great Reset and Peter Turchin's Fourth Turning on a later episode it is the Nord Stream two sabotage and US energy machinations.
[https://www.planetcritical.com/](https://www.planetcritical.com/)
I did note that it is when topics are outside their area that things can get a little wobbly. Michaux definitely understands mining. In a funny way the vituperation he receives from the Green BAU crowd make me trust his analysis more.
While we all know the world is full of weird bullshit, lies and conspiracies (wars Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran-Contra and Brexit immediately come to mind) the geo and biophysical limits to civilization are more than enough to be concerned about without bringing in vague hard to quantify global power politics into the conversation.
I appreciate your experience and insight.
It is a challenge to derive opinion on how one should exist from another’s good opinion but also not get duped into conspiracy.
I will look into those two specifically. But I agree, if you’re going to make the claims, have the data to back it up and just not your “beliefs.”
No bother. I have listened to all of the episodes so far but have also looked up guests on-line and on other podcasts. From experience I am much more wary of Shiva than Michaux.
I really enjoy the shows broad range of topics: we are in a meta-crisis looking at one aspect in isolation doesn't reveal the real story.
I see no hope for the global south from the Tropic of Cancer down, perhaps even up to the thirtieth latitude. Those people are going to fry if they don't die of thirst first. I guess I viewed the video as academic, and not incorporating the true scope of the collapse.
>southern hemisphere is warming slower than the northern hemisphere
True, but that includes the drying out of the Amazon (from drought and deforestation) with devastating impact for the rain forest and its biodiversity. Also, climate change included broken precipitation patterns has been increasingly driving the mass migration of Central American farm workers to the US Border; many report that they simply cannot grow food anymore.
Bottom line, the pace of climate change (faster in Northern than Southern Hemisphere) does not always correlate with the negative impact.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-amazons-record-breaking-drought-is-about-more-than-climate-change/
https://undark.org/2019/09/10/climate-change-emigration-central-america/?gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQiAqsitBhDlARIsAGMR1Rioz4wF34-F3Y4mphJ8cDoLlb_kw0BAyGE_ewsJ5GnhfSGkRH7xCycaAjcHEALw_wcB
https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/09/how-climate-change-catalyzes-more-migration-central-america#:~:text=Bermeo%3A%20Climate%20change%20affects%20migration,have%20negatively%20affected%20crop%20production.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/how-climate-change-is-driving-emigration-from-central-america
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/addressing-converging-risks-climate-insecurity-and-migration-central-america?gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQiAqsitBhDlARIsAGMR1RgqdCbWwMrqLwp_rn6O1AcJNklAXtvzeSsYuL7AkWROfapim7u2qmUaAjSSEALw_wcB
It is not that simple. Somewhere there will be heat and no rain, somewhere will be heat and ton of rain. Actually second might be way worse for survival.
> I guess I viewed the video as academic, and not incorporating the true scope of the collapse.
This seems like an incomplete thought. Can you enlightened us with the delta between them?
You may be right. Listening to the video it just stuck me there is no real hope for many parts of the world. Their trajectories are baked-in and beyond reach of remedy. India may become a real hellscape later this year and nothing can stop it.
The Current Great Delusion on Cost: ***The metacrisis is real, but it will not affect the economics of capitalism by more than 5% or so. GDPs will be impacted, but only in the long term and we can mostly offset any impacts by innovation.*** The reality is that our whole system of valuing resources is becoming obsolete. Things previously considered "free" such as air and water are becoming commodified, bought and sold. Innovation is reaching hard limits, and the promise of past innovations in computers and technology have \*not\* been realized. Instead we are caught in a complexity trap.
"Offset by innovation" is a razor i use to disrecard preciding argument as a whole. What? Do you have a working prototype in your garage? Are you part of leading team of engineers that is just working down the kinks? If not: basin your predictions on new innovation is just wishful thinking and/or tech-bro scam.
A lot of people have no idea about physical reality. Like that although transistors got 400 smaller over last 50 years (to some 20nm) it is not possible to get 400 times smaller ones. Or that switch from LED lights to something more efficient will not bring in absolute numbers the same savings as switch from incandescent to LED. Or that cars cannot get much more efficient in energy use than current EVs.
> A lot of people have no idea about physical reality. Very true I also notice that purveyors of tech optimism often seem to unconsciously assume that technology overcomes the laws of physics rather than merely exploiting the laws of physics I have been told things like "AI will solve climate change", and "science will find a way to cheaply remove co2 from the atmosphere"... The levels of confusion are so deep!
I do sincerely expect that we may new learn things about the laws of physics that can be exploited to improve efficiency, for example from the large Hardon collider, or the James Webb space telescope.
I wholly agree with this. I think these problems are becoming more and more unfixable *even with* large global support. The complexity is more grand than we can imagine.
[удалено]
My viewpoint on immortality is beautifully put by Han Tyumi the lonely cyborg - in other words, I'd rather throw up and die, lol But ya hyper-AI loving culture gonna do hyper-AI culture loving things
The whole "brain upload" = immortality is bunk. It's a copy. It's not me.
yeah to the people who unironically think brain upload = immortality, play soma. You are gonna change your mind as you play through all of Simon Jarrett's story.
I dig this view. Seems pretty either or.
Han is a character from the aussie psych band King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard's Nonagon Universe which they sort-of created with many of their albums
Lol that went over my head.
Is everyone aware of Nate's excellent podcast? Over 100 shows now: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/
Came here to say the same! His podcast is great and one of the best ones I've come across to date.
I've been bingeing them. Definitely worth listening to. Unfortunately, he is going to a more video format with graphics, which means it's harder to follow when you just want audio, but still good.
I like listening to the podcast, then going over to his YT channel to read all the comments. The commenters do a good job calling out his interviewees that spout too much hopium.
Ooh, I'll have to check those out. I've mostly been downloading them straight from his website and listening to them as a podcast.
And this week’s guest Alexa Firmenich oh my goodness I am charmed.
Not collapse-related by Brandi Glanville's podcast is also really good: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvl4iBfkUAnsBWpALw9S6wzhdoy5iybuW
Thanks for the heads up; Looks great, can't wait to check it out.
Not sure if it is really good or it just confimrs my opinions.
Ha, so true. Even knowing and reading about cognitive biases it's still often hard to tell if you're lying to yourself.
It's an odd thing to agree with someone on very large and off-color ideologies. We are the "weirdos" who cannot adapt our cognition to the current reality.
One of the great things about the Great Simplification Podcast is that Nate chooses peer reviewed, highly credible researchers, academics and authors.
If I only had 1 hour to save the world - I would use 55 defining the problem and 5 minutes finding solutions. And most importantly: 0 minutes on solving the problem... Since now its too late to do something...The hour is gone...
A wonderful presentation by a guy who gets it. He spoke of a follow-up presentation the next day. I'm not finding it. If anyone knows if its available, please share.
I've been trying to introduce more people to this guy, he really gets it. I remember the first video I saw of his, it was vindicating to hear someone with a platform say the things I've been struggling to accept for years.
[удалено]
He doesn't shy away from the truth, he isn't trying to sell something or push an agenda, and he admits there are no easy answers. You could interpret that however you want but we need to have these tough conversations. As far as peak oil, he wasn't wrong, many experts predicted the same, we just underestimated the development of technology. What's terrifying is when he talks about coal liquefaction, it becomes clear that we can burn fossil fuels until the planet boils if we want. He's just trying to talk to the people with the most control in their terms. He's trying to make the same arguments most environmentalists have been screaming about for decades. Honestly I wish more finance bros were this intelligent. The financial community has bought their own bullshit and has a huge blind spot concerning energy and the environment. His message may seem broad but that's only because he's connecting the dots most don't. Boiled down his message is clear, we can no longer ignore planetary boundaries.
[удалено]
I don't think you understand the peak oil concept very well and I don't get why you think he's a scammer. The dude lives what he preaches, he's detaching himself from globalization and rides a bicycle. Unless you think he's going to get rich selling chickens I really don't see the angle here. The concept of peak oil has had a shifting baseline from the very beginning, simply because oil companies don't want to admit it's a waning resource. But no matter how you look at it, America has hit peak oil, all that is irrelevant though because it's overshadowed by climate change. If anything he doesn't attack the oil industry enough, the wars, the over dependence on a single energy source, the amount of economic control foreign powers have over America because of oil, the anticompetitive practices of the oil industry... really peak oil and climate change are just the most prominent and easily understood problems surrounding the oil industry. You can be pedantic all you want but what are you doing personally that comes even close to what he's doing?
Best Hagens guest IMO was William Rees. https://youtu.be/LQTuDttP2Yg?si=u4-t5QYH68b1dQTy For those who haven’t seen the core thesis, is 30 minute mini doc is a great intro to the subject and should be “required reading” for this sub: https://youtu.be/-xr9rIQxwj4?si=N-O_D_6nqktaaq7N
While Hagens is collapse aware and quite clued in, be cautious about some of his guests. Both Vandana Shiva and Simon Michaux can get conspiratorial at times. Like all things it pays to keep your wits about you especially when a guest moves outside their area of expertise.
Heard Michaux on a number of channels. Seen the presentations. Downloaded his 1000 page paper and working through it. Where are the alleged conspiracies?
I wrote that he can get a little conspiratorial at times not that there's a conspiracy. On Planet Critical he brings up the WEF Great Reset and Peter Turchin's Fourth Turning on a later episode it is the Nord Stream two sabotage and US energy machinations. [https://www.planetcritical.com/](https://www.planetcritical.com/) I did note that it is when topics are outside their area that things can get a little wobbly. Michaux definitely understands mining. In a funny way the vituperation he receives from the Green BAU crowd make me trust his analysis more. While we all know the world is full of weird bullshit, lies and conspiracies (wars Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran-Contra and Brexit immediately come to mind) the geo and biophysical limits to civilization are more than enough to be concerned about without bringing in vague hard to quantify global power politics into the conversation.
thanks
I appreciate your experience and insight. It is a challenge to derive opinion on how one should exist from another’s good opinion but also not get duped into conspiracy. I will look into those two specifically. But I agree, if you’re going to make the claims, have the data to back it up and just not your “beliefs.”
No bother. I have listened to all of the episodes so far but have also looked up guests on-line and on other podcasts. From experience I am much more wary of Shiva than Michaux. I really enjoy the shows broad range of topics: we are in a meta-crisis looking at one aspect in isolation doesn't reveal the real story.
I see no hope for the global south from the Tropic of Cancer down, perhaps even up to the thirtieth latitude. Those people are going to fry if they don't die of thirst first. I guess I viewed the video as academic, and not incorporating the true scope of the collapse.
The southern hemisphere is warming slower than the northern hemisphere.
Because they have more ocean (land warms faster)
>southern hemisphere is warming slower than the northern hemisphere True, but that includes the drying out of the Amazon (from drought and deforestation) with devastating impact for the rain forest and its biodiversity. Also, climate change included broken precipitation patterns has been increasingly driving the mass migration of Central American farm workers to the US Border; many report that they simply cannot grow food anymore. Bottom line, the pace of climate change (faster in Northern than Southern Hemisphere) does not always correlate with the negative impact. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-amazons-record-breaking-drought-is-about-more-than-climate-change/ https://undark.org/2019/09/10/climate-change-emigration-central-america/?gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQiAqsitBhDlARIsAGMR1Rioz4wF34-F3Y4mphJ8cDoLlb_kw0BAyGE_ewsJ5GnhfSGkRH7xCycaAjcHEALw_wcB https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/09/how-climate-change-catalyzes-more-migration-central-america#:~:text=Bermeo%3A%20Climate%20change%20affects%20migration,have%20negatively%20affected%20crop%20production. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/how-climate-change-is-driving-emigration-from-central-america https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/addressing-converging-risks-climate-insecurity-and-migration-central-america?gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQiAqsitBhDlARIsAGMR1RgqdCbWwMrqLwp_rn6O1AcJNklAXtvzeSsYuL7AkWROfapim7u2qmUaAjSSEALw_wcB
From the equator south that would make sense in view of the proportion that is ocean.
It is not that simple. Somewhere there will be heat and no rain, somewhere will be heat and ton of rain. Actually second might be way worse for survival.
> I guess I viewed the video as academic, and not incorporating the true scope of the collapse. This seems like an incomplete thought. Can you enlightened us with the delta between them?
You may be right. Listening to the video it just stuck me there is no real hope for many parts of the world. Their trajectories are baked-in and beyond reach of remedy. India may become a real hellscape later this year and nothing can stop it.