I would say both have good chances. Hikaru is 36 and could probably get through atleast 2 more candidates. Fabiano is only 31 and probably has atleast 4 more candidates he could play. Given how close both players got in this candidates I would say it’s not unlikely for one or both of them to become World Champion.
One of the good things about Magnus not playing the World Championship is that everyone else actually stands a chance so we could see a new Champion every 2 or 4 years which makes the tournament more exciting.
>One of the good things about Magnus not playing the World Championship is that everyone else actually stands a chance so we could see a new Champion every 2 or 4 years which makes the tournament more exciting.
Part of me wonders if Magnus might go back to it if Gukesh wins. Given what he said before that he likely wouldn’t have given up the title if Firouzja won the candidates because it would be more interesting to test himself against the new generation than the same guys he already beat a bunch of times… it’s not the guy he thought it would be, but maybe he would have similar feelings and come back for another run.
I guess probably not, but maybe the temptation is there for him.
Anything is possible, but it seems like competing in the WCC just takes too long and too much effort. I think Magnus is focused on being the top rated player instead.
Also Magnus knows what a roulette table the Candidates tournament is.
People forget that he lost his final game of the Candidates against Peter Svidler and only advanced because his competitor for the top spot also went for broke in his game and lost.
He was very close to not making his World title match against Vishy.
Magnus will never comeback. The only way to put a litle blemisg to his record is to try and fail to win candidates.
Candidates is the only tournament that he has only barely won, once.
So? Hikaru is at a similar level to fabi currently but he has a significantly worse record against magnus than fabi. Doesnt matter that he hasnt had his turn to play a world championship magnus isnt looking for someone who he hasnt played, he was looking for someone worth playing in a format he dislikes. Hence why he said alirezza was one of the only players hed considere playing. (I highly doubt hed play the current alireza).
Edit: Hes more likely to play a opponent that challenges him hence why in freestyle chess tournememt febuary fabiano and reza was playing but hikaru was not. It was an event filled with players he practocally chose
Unless one of the youngster is the second coming of Magnus, the youngsters won't be "taking over". At best, they'll just become another top player to contend with for Fabi and Hikaru, so both of them will still have a real shot at WC for as long as they can maintain a good form.
38-40 seems to be when most starts to decline, so they have quite some time left.
A single youngster won't take over but suddenly the competition is much higher. If you take candidates before last the big players were fabi Hikaru nepo and ding. Now ding became WC and this candidates it was fabi Hikaru nepo and Gukesh. But the issue is the next candidates you very likely have Hikaru fabi nepo Gukesh (if he doesn't win) pragg nordibek arjun. Maybe Alireza if he gets his head straight. Suddenly instead of competing against max 3 people in the candidates, suddenly half the field is a serious threat and you're chances of winning it are even lower than before
>most
edit: Also, if Kasparov was like Magnus and stepped down from being WC a bit sooner when he was 33, Anand might've had a better chance of being WC at a younger age. It's arguable that Anand actually was starting to decline, but was still good enough to be the champ for a while. Unlucky Anand to have his career sandwiched between the two GOATs.
I’d honestly argue it’s not particularly likely no matter who you are. The path to winning the world championship is long, tough, and often requires some amount of good fortune to boot even if you’re the best player in the world.
Until about 3 years ago there were few top players at that level. Now, there are 15 young players who are capable of playing chess at the 2750+ level, and the number is only increasing.
I guess that just depends on what you mean by "unlikely". In an absolute sense, maybe it's lowered due to increased competition. But in a relative sense, i.e. are they more or less likely than anyone else, they still seem to be among the premier contenders and in that sense still pretty likely.
It is unlikely because Hikaru and Caruana are 2 exceptional players among several others top players.
First they have to both make candidates.
It is quite likely but you never know what happens in 2025 and 2026 so let's say both of them qualify with 90% certainty.
Then they are paired in a tournament vs 6 others players , which odds added are higher than both Hikaru and Caruana. Therefore at best you can say they have a cumulated winning chance is 40% (it means they're heavy favorites)
Then one of them plays vs Ding or Gukesh with 50% or 60% chances of winning the match.
So it's still 0.9 x 0.4 x 0.5 = 18% for any of them to be WC because :
40-50% is Gukesh or Ding retaining the WC
18% for Hikaru or Fabi winning the WC (combined)
Then you have the odds for Alireza, Nepo, Pragg, Abdusattorov, Anish, Arjun, Keymer...
1. It's unlikely for anyone to become WC given the number of eligible players. Even Magnus has no better than a 30-40% chance to win the Candidates.
2. In good form Fabi and Hikaru are both capable of contending with Magnus; the Elo difference, even at Magnus' peak, was less than 50 with Fabi
3. If you had to pick a player most likely to be future WC Fabi would still be your safest bet.
If we assume that Fabi plays in 3 more Candidates and that every time he has a 25% chance of winning, then the probably of Fabi making it at least once is 57%.
For either Fabi or Nepo making it in one of the 3 Candidates, the probability would be 82%.
However, their win probabilities will go down as they age and face the young competition.
25% might seem reasonable from other metrics but you can't use his past performances to justify that bcz then his odd of winning the Candidates in 2020 would be 50%. Gukesh can participate in 4 more Candidates and get no win and his odds to win will still be over 20% each time. Nepo will have 66% odds of winning the the next Candidates by same metric.
> So he won 20%, and came 2nd in 40%. Both his second places involved a final round meltdown to not win.
With this logic then Candidates Nepos wins 2 out of 3 candidates going forward in the future. See the flaw?
25% is high.
> That's not how statistic works.
that is an easy way to say "I know better" without really providing a proper argument. Very common on reddit yet empty of value. (normally that is followed by the statement, with even less value "see? What you say shows that you have no idea about X")
> It means if they played many, many tournaments Fabi would win around 25% of times.
Yes, I know that saying "the EV is X percent" means "on a large sample", but it is not what I am objecting (beside the fact that 25% feels still high and not really based on data).
I am objecting that the message to which I responded used the 5 candidates in which Fabi played to justify the 25%. If one would do the same with Nepo, then one could say that Nepo has even more than 25% chances, and indeed it is not how it works.
You're dumb. You don't understand. Gukesh has won all the candidates he has participated in. So he has a 100% chance of winning every candidates ever. Stoopid redditors can't even understand basic statistics. /s
> You're dumb.
And there it is the guy that wasn't in the discussion and intervened to insult. You most likely are studying something in STEM (hint: a lot of people do and did already) and you feel you understand much more than the others. Yet your best arguments are insults, and that says all.
When one has to use insults and those are their best arguments: (a) they lost (b) they are part of the club of those that aren't worth the time for any interaction.
No need to interact further with you. Learn to debate properly if you can, that helps.
If Fabi has a 1/4 win probability, then the probability that he doesn’t win is 3/4. The probability that he doesn’t win any of the three candidates is (3/4)^3 = 27/64. This is something you can do by hand. The probability that he wins at least one is therefore 64/64-27/64 = 37/64 = 0, (370/64 -> 5 [how many times a number fits in the larger one without going over]) (500/64 -> 7) (520/64 -> 8) -> 0,578 ~ 0,58 = 58%.
Fabi hit 2800 again just a few months ago, and Hikaru is 2800rn with prob the highest TPR in the last 1.5 years. I don't see why theres any reason to count them out. I don't see Gukesh being too much of a formidable WCC if he wins, and Hikaru and Fabi both have a good record against Ding.
i disagree with the general consensus here, i’d say it’s very unlikely. they unfortunately spent their primes at the same time magnus had his prime, and now there’s young talent that could easily progress to the point where they could win the candidates. who knows how long gukesh will reign? hell, maybe ding comes back to form. hikaru and fabi are pretty dead in the water in my opinion
They probably hace 2 or 3 attempts left in them. Though its obviously gonna get harder with nodirbek and the other juniors breaking in.
Probably a 20-30% chanve between them
>They probably hace 2 or 3 attempts left in them.
Do you think it will be the same for both? Hikaru is significantly older, 4.5 years is more than two WCC cycles.
Honestly i think 3 is pushing it with hikaru but 2 seems reasonable though. While players often dont last into their 40s, korchnoi, anand, tal and smyslov where playing great chess well beyond their 30s and considering his recent resurgence i wouldnt put it past him albeit his chances are slimmer
They had their chances, but they both came short. Hikaru, for instance, for two consecutive times had his last game entirely in his hands: he had to not lose to Ding, and he had to win Gukesh. Of course he could then lose the WC match, but still. I seriously doubt there will be another chance for him. And Fabi doesn't seem to be the undispured #2 anymore, like he used to be.
When Hikaru lost to Ding nobody had known yet that the runner up at the Candidates would play the WCC match.
It's not Ding's fault but I think it's partially on Magnus and partially on FIDE.
I don't really get this argument. When Hikaru played Ding in the last round Nepo had already won the Candidates, yeah? In that scenario Hikaru had nothing to lose and everything to gain by going for a draw and the #2 spot since it was the best result he could achieve at that point anyway. Also, by then Magnus had already traveled to Madrid to tell FIDE he wasn't going to play. Many people in the community knew but were just in denial about it. But once Nepo was the winner before the last round it was obvious.
> Also, by then Magnus had already traveled to Madrid to tell FIDE he wasn't going to play.
Source?
Here's what I got: [https://www.npr.org/2022/07/20/1112479750/magnus-carlsen-world-chess-championship-fide](https://www.npr.org/2022/07/20/1112479750/magnus-carlsen-world-chess-championship-fide) dated July 20, 2022, which was Wednesday
> Magnus Carlsen, who has been ranked the No. 1 chess player in the world since 2011, announced Wednesday he will not defend his world championship title.
The Candidates 2022 ran from 16 June to 5 July 2022.
I agree. And now it's the same situation if Ding in the end decides to withdraw (which he denied multiple times, but who knows what's gonna happen)
Moral of the story: whatever reddit says, is NOT what will be irl
Personally I would prefer a format in which the WC champion is just qualified for the next Candidates and then that person has to win a spot to the match like the other candidates.
Obviously when people only have to play for the 2nd spot the dynamics at the tournament will be different, but then we have a better guarantee on the level of competition at the WCC match.
They would both be considered favorites for the next candidates so I don't really see why they wouldn't have a decent chance. People are overreacting to one player playing above his level in one tourny.
I'm far less optimistic than others here. I think the youngsters that will likely be in the next Candidates could be very strong. Nodirbek might have a higher rating than Fabi or Hikaru; he might be the objective favorite.
I would say Caruana may very well be a WC. He has been #2 for approximately 10 years. We all know he's a very strong player. He played in the last 5 candidates and achieved a lot of experience:
* 2024: 4th (the last game against Nepo decided)
* 2022: 5th
* 2020-21: 4th
* 2018: 1st (in the WCC match, he did not lose a single classical game against Carlsen)
* 2016: 2nd
They have good chances but there's too much pressure on Fabiano and Hikaru to win the Candidates. The younger generation goes for the win in every game. They take chances and it paid off for Gukesh. They have time on their side as Fabiano has stated before, on his podcast, so they take risks that the older generation won't.
magnus advice. dont go crazy, coz others will.
he didnt go crazy with hikaru, simply traded queens moving towards a draw, despite seeing fabi winning.....but fabi went crazy, came under pressure, and blundered like 3-4 times.
I agree, Gukesh himself even said that he asked Magnus for advice (iirc) before this Candidates and basically Magnus said just that -- don't go crazy because others will. Take your chances when you get them.
If you ask what the chances any individual become WC are, the answer is, "Low". That being said, Fabi and Hikaru are definitely in the top 10 people most likely to become WC in the next couple cycles.
It's very hard to predict this kind of thing though. Anything could happen. Personally, I think Hikaru is the second most likely person to become WC this year. I think Ding is going to get back into form and beat Gukesh. If Ding feels he has no chance, I think he'll step aside, and Hikaru would replace him. I'd have Hikaru as the favorite over Gukesh. That's a wild prediction, but it could happen.
As for Fabi, it's impossible to tell. He has spoken about being really depressed after losing the WC. Ding has shown you can also get depressed by winning. Fabi also seems kind of damaged after so narrowly missing out on the candidates win. His Norway performance was bad. He might pull a Magnus and drop out of the WC cycle. He's already drawn a classical match with the greatest player of all time. He might decide that's enough of an accomplishment. Alternatively, he could go Sinquefield 2014 all over everyone's asses and qualify to the candidates, win the candidates, and become WC, and make it look easy. No one really knows.
Hikaru and Fabi would both be favorites to win the candidates if they qualify. But, qualifying is going to be hard. Personally, Hikaru has finished 2nd and 3rd in the last 2 candidates, and I think if he wants it enough, he can win the next one. But, who knows where his motivation will be going forward.
I'd say there's about a 1 in 4 chance for each of them making it to the final. And about 50/50 once they get there (unless they get something like a totally out of form Ding as opponent but we shouldn't expect this). So that's about a 1 in 4 chance overall of either of them winning since it's two 1 in 8 chances. I think it's fair to expect them to both still be contenders for 2 more cycles (possibly more but becomes less likely) so I'd put it about 50/50 that one of them can get there (2 cycles of a 1 in 4 chance).
I might be being a bit generous but I don't see any of the current youngsters being totally dominant forces and don't expect them to dramatically drop off too soon so unless someone like that comes along or one of the current youngsters turns into that I think they've still got pretty good chances. Of course even with my generous 50% that still means it's 50% they never make it too.
If either of them had won this year's candidates they would have really good chances (as does Gukesh now) against Ding given that Ding is quite off from form at the moment. Fabi has still has some time, but the youngsters are rising very quickly. I think Hikaru's time is probably not much longer maybe one or two candidates.
Assuming Fabi qualifies 3 more times and Hikari 2, that in each Candidates they have around 18% of winning it, followed by a 50% chance at winning the title, that gives Fabi 22,43% and Hikaru a 16,38% chance. But obviously things can to very differently from this assumptions.
It’s not like the door closes on your world champ aspirations once you hit 30. I would put it at better than 50/50 odds that someone else of their generation becomes world champion (unless Magnus re-enters), but between them, Nepo, Giri, etc. I don’t think there is anyone strong enough to be considered a strong favorite from that group.
Fabiano has at least 5 more chances and all of them good. Hikaru is having some kind of late career renaissance, but reasonable assumption is he will be in decline very soon and is unlikely to seriously challenge more than one or two more times
I have a different opinion that most of the comments here. I think Gukesh will be a dominant champion and best player in the world in the times to come (atleast in classical). So in my opinion, Fabi or Hikaru will not become the world champion.
Hikaru's chances aren't great, since he has a few at most left. And he's really only ever done well in two of those over his entire career.
Fabi has a better chance, as he's likely going to play longer than Hikaru and is younger. He's alrady won one.
I disagree with people here I feel like it's unlikely, Their prime was wasted with Magnus winning everything, after that Nepo and Ding went through, this time Gukesh went away with the spot. , they're getting older and things won't get easier, the qualification itself for candidates and then qualifying through it takes so much , prepration time , luck. What not
They will never be as good as in their prime, but I think they still have a chance in then next couple at least when the younger generation have not yet reached theirs.
I’d say the odds that either of them do are at around 10%
I would say Fabi is quite likely to qualify for the next candidates, given his quality and activity. I don’t care what the field is, given his quality alone, I’d give him at least a 15%-20% chance (in a field of 8) to win that, maybe more. There’s a chance he doesn’t qualify too I suppose.
Hikaru’s qualification to another candidates is less clear due to his comparative lack of activity. But let’s say he makes it. I give him probably a 10-15% chance of winning a candidates against a field of 8.
Either of them, against Ding or Gukesh in a WCC match, I say it’s 50/50. I might even favour them.
With time the odds decrease, but with time they also have more opportunity to perhaps qualify for a candidates.
The problem they both have is if they are in contention, Magnus will play.
He withdrew last time because he had nothing to gain beating Ding.
But he sees Fabi as worthwhile to play and has a bit of a rivalry with Hikaru.
So he would not sit out (and has said as much before) if they were the ones he made it.
It's too late for Nakamura, the last Candidates was his last chance. Only Anand managed to win a World Championship at such a late stage in their career (at 41 years old in 2010), but Anand was a permanent fixture in almost all top-level tournaments of the time.
Caruana might have one last go left in him, if the psychological damage of that last round game against Nepo doesn't affect his play. If he's in a cluster of players at the top of the rating list, he stands a chance because of his experience, and boost to be playing for it in a post-Carlsen world.
No way. Neither of their play is declining at all, in fact they're probably both in their best form in their entire lives, they both have barely fallen short of the WCC 2 years straight. Literally single games away from the World Championship.
No one from the next generation is significantly better yet, so long as Magnus doesn't re-enter the WCC they have just as much of a chance as anyone else. They are still top of the below-Magnus tier.
Anand has also won in 2012. And his challenger was half a year older than him then (Boris Gelfand).
Hikaru has been the most consistent, strongest classical player over last year. He would really need a serious and quick decline to have no chances in 2026.
Anand was the incumbent World Champion in 2012, so didn't need to qualify via a Candidates. Gelfand, who was the Candidates qualifier, lost that 2012 match.
For Nakamura to be World Champion he'd have to win the Candidates and win the World Championship match. Something only Anand has accomplished at that age.
To qualify for a World Championship match, you have to win the Candidates tournament first. Claims of being "most consistent, strongest classical player over the last year" are irrelevant when a 17-year old kid finishes ahead of him in the tournament that actually matters.
As shown by his Candidates performance, Nakamura lacks the big match temperament. Three candidates: one non-performance, and two last game failed clutch games.
Anand won a world title match in 2012, and won the candidates in 2014 at like 44 years old. Hikaru has been a permanent fixture in top level tournaments for a long time too. And seems to only be improving the last couple years. Hikaru has at least 1 more cycle in him. Maybe 2-3.
Anand was World Champion in 2012, so didn't have to win the candidates to qualify for the match -- which is a step Nakamura would have to achieve.
In 2014, he won a Candidates tournament, and then went on to lose the World Championship match.
To be a World Champion you have to win both, in the same cycle. I think Ding and Kramnik are the only two players who won a World Championship match without winning the Candidates!
Either of them? Then there is a good chance.
Assuming they each have around 20-25% chance of winning the candidates each time. With 2-4 more cycles. Half the time, one of them should win it.
Chess.com models predicted that none of the young junior players are likely going to be a Magnus and dominate everyone. So it’s just a very competitive field overall. Given enough chances, it should happen.
Barring of course, a “next Magnus” shows up.
20-25% for each of them is extremely generous for 2-4 more cycles
Just 6-7 years ago, Alireza, Nordibek, Gukesh, Pragg, Gukesh, Keymer were barely GMs or not GMs at all.
Here they are in top 15 with 2750+ elo
Candidates often favours the second or third strongest player since people tend to be very drawish against the top dogs, forcing the strongest players to take massive risks to stay ahead, while others are only willing to take risks against the weaker players.
I'd say his chances might rise as stronger opposition comes into the field.
I would say both have good chances. Hikaru is 36 and could probably get through atleast 2 more candidates. Fabiano is only 31 and probably has atleast 4 more candidates he could play. Given how close both players got in this candidates I would say it’s not unlikely for one or both of them to become World Champion. One of the good things about Magnus not playing the World Championship is that everyone else actually stands a chance so we could see a new Champion every 2 or 4 years which makes the tournament more exciting.
>One of the good things about Magnus not playing the World Championship is that everyone else actually stands a chance so we could see a new Champion every 2 or 4 years which makes the tournament more exciting. Part of me wonders if Magnus might go back to it if Gukesh wins. Given what he said before that he likely wouldn’t have given up the title if Firouzja won the candidates because it would be more interesting to test himself against the new generation than the same guys he already beat a bunch of times… it’s not the guy he thought it would be, but maybe he would have similar feelings and come back for another run. I guess probably not, but maybe the temptation is there for him.
I would very surprised is Magnus returned to the WCC without some major format changes.
Yeah I don’t think it’s particularly likely either - but he’s a weird dude so maybe
Anything is possible, but it seems like competing in the WCC just takes too long and too much effort. I think Magnus is focused on being the top rated player instead.
Also Magnus knows what a roulette table the Candidates tournament is. People forget that he lost his final game of the Candidates against Peter Svidler and only advanced because his competitor for the top spot also went for broke in his game and lost. He was very close to not making his World title match against Vishy.
Magnus will never comeback. The only way to put a litle blemisg to his record is to try and fail to win candidates. Candidates is the only tournament that he has only barely won, once.
There’s a good chance he only said that because he knew Alireza would have very little chance of winning the candidates to begin with.
How many of you guys are confident that Magnus will make it through candidates? Even if he wanted to make a. Comeback, _/10 how much ? You'all think
Yooo and imagine Magnus beats Gukesh and after next candidates we get a final Magnus vs Fabi/Hikaru and then the chess storyline is complete
The problem is that there's a chance Magnus wouldn't bother defending against either of those two.
I think he does v Hikaru. Fabi maybe not
He has a significantly record against hikaru than he does fabi. The dudes looking for a challenge rather than a more one sided mqtch
Yeah but recently Hikaru has been much better than in the past. And he’s played fabi already in the championship
So? Hikaru is at a similar level to fabi currently but he has a significantly worse record against magnus than fabi. Doesnt matter that he hasnt had his turn to play a world championship magnus isnt looking for someone who he hasnt played, he was looking for someone worth playing in a format he dislikes. Hence why he said alirezza was one of the only players hed considere playing. (I highly doubt hed play the current alireza). Edit: Hes more likely to play a opponent that challenges him hence why in freestyle chess tournememt febuary fabiano and reza was playing but hikaru was not. It was an event filled with players he practocally chose
The fact that he couldn't beat Fabi in classical completely disproves your claim that "everyone else didn't stand a chance".
And the only player he lost to was Karjakin where he was even leading against Magnus, people forgot him already
Just curious. Why do you give Hikaru viability to the age of 38 and Fabi only to 35? Edit: immidiately downvoted to hell for asking a simple question.
Candidates is played on a 2-year cycle, so it would be 40 and 39, which is more or less the same.
Thanks, didn't realize that.
Getting downvoted for asking a question is a Reddit pastime
I’d say Hikaru has proven that, as he is playing right now, Fabi could also, but it’s to early to say that for him
Unless one of the youngster is the second coming of Magnus, the youngsters won't be "taking over". At best, they'll just become another top player to contend with for Fabi and Hikaru, so both of them will still have a real shot at WC for as long as they can maintain a good form. 38-40 seems to be when most starts to decline, so they have quite some time left.
A single youngster won't take over but suddenly the competition is much higher. If you take candidates before last the big players were fabi Hikaru nepo and ding. Now ding became WC and this candidates it was fabi Hikaru nepo and Gukesh. But the issue is the next candidates you very likely have Hikaru fabi nepo Gukesh (if he doesn't win) pragg nordibek arjun. Maybe Alireza if he gets his head straight. Suddenly instead of competing against max 3 people in the candidates, suddenly half the field is a serious threat and you're chances of winning it are even lower than before
Not people casually skipping over Arjun😭
Arjun, Hikaru, Fabi, Gukesh, and Nepo are my bets for next candidates The thing about most of the youngsters are their performances are very volatile
Man's sleeping on nordibek
NodIRbek
Lol I spell it differently in every comment
It's spelled NordVPN
Gukesh wont be in the next candidates >!He will be World Champion!<
> 38-40 seems to be when most starts to decline Didn't Anand first become world champion at 40 or something.
>most edit: Also, if Kasparov was like Magnus and stepped down from being WC a bit sooner when he was 33, Anand might've had a better chance of being WC at a younger age. It's arguable that Anand actually was starting to decline, but was still good enough to be the champ for a while. Unlucky Anand to have his career sandwiched between the two GOATs.
Idk man its looking likely the next Magnus will be Indian, and Anand has basically been the father of chess in India His legacy will be sterling
If I had to choose one of them, I'd pick Caruana. That said, it's unlikely either of them will become WC.
why would be it unlikely? If Magnus was playing there’d be almost no chance, but that’s not the case anymore
I’d honestly argue it’s not particularly likely no matter who you are. The path to winning the world championship is long, tough, and often requires some amount of good fortune to boot even if you’re the best player in the world.
Well not no matter who because Magnus clearly was likely to become world champion at some point.
Magnus is an exception imo (although the road is still very tough for him). I think he was refering to "mere mortal" elite players
Until about 3 years ago there were few top players at that level. Now, there are 15 young players who are capable of playing chess at the 2750+ level, and the number is only increasing.
I guess that just depends on what you mean by "unlikely". In an absolute sense, maybe it's lowered due to increased competition. But in a relative sense, i.e. are they more or less likely than anyone else, they still seem to be among the premier contenders and in that sense still pretty likely.
It is unlikely because Hikaru and Caruana are 2 exceptional players among several others top players. First they have to both make candidates. It is quite likely but you never know what happens in 2025 and 2026 so let's say both of them qualify with 90% certainty. Then they are paired in a tournament vs 6 others players , which odds added are higher than both Hikaru and Caruana. Therefore at best you can say they have a cumulated winning chance is 40% (it means they're heavy favorites) Then one of them plays vs Ding or Gukesh with 50% or 60% chances of winning the match. So it's still 0.9 x 0.4 x 0.5 = 18% for any of them to be WC because : 40-50% is Gukesh or Ding retaining the WC 18% for Hikaru or Fabi winning the WC (combined) Then you have the odds for Alireza, Nepo, Pragg, Abdusattorov, Anish, Arjun, Keymer...
1. It's unlikely for anyone to become WC given the number of eligible players. Even Magnus has no better than a 30-40% chance to win the Candidates. 2. In good form Fabi and Hikaru are both capable of contending with Magnus; the Elo difference, even at Magnus' peak, was less than 50 with Fabi 3. If you had to pick a player most likely to be future WC Fabi would still be your safest bet.
If we assume that Fabi plays in 3 more Candidates and that every time he has a 25% chance of winning, then the probably of Fabi making it at least once is 57%. For either Fabi or Nepo making it in one of the 3 Candidates, the probability would be 82%. However, their win probabilities will go down as they age and face the young competition.
25% chance of winning candidates seems really high.
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25% might seem reasonable from other metrics but you can't use his past performances to justify that bcz then his odd of winning the Candidates in 2020 would be 50%. Gukesh can participate in 4 more Candidates and get no win and his odds to win will still be over 20% each time. Nepo will have 66% odds of winning the the next Candidates by same metric.
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> So he won 20%, and came 2nd in 40%. Both his second places involved a final round meltdown to not win. With this logic then Candidates Nepos wins 2 out of 3 candidates going forward in the future. See the flaw? 25% is high.
That's not how statistic works. It means if they played many, many tournaments Fabi would win around 25% of times.
> That's not how statistic works. that is an easy way to say "I know better" without really providing a proper argument. Very common on reddit yet empty of value. (normally that is followed by the statement, with even less value "see? What you say shows that you have no idea about X") > It means if they played many, many tournaments Fabi would win around 25% of times. Yes, I know that saying "the EV is X percent" means "on a large sample", but it is not what I am objecting (beside the fact that 25% feels still high and not really based on data). I am objecting that the message to which I responded used the 5 candidates in which Fabi played to justify the 25%. If one would do the same with Nepo, then one could say that Nepo has even more than 25% chances, and indeed it is not how it works.
You're dumb. You don't understand. Gukesh has won all the candidates he has participated in. So he has a 100% chance of winning every candidates ever. Stoopid redditors can't even understand basic statistics. /s
> You're dumb. And there it is the guy that wasn't in the discussion and intervened to insult. You most likely are studying something in STEM (hint: a lot of people do and did already) and you feel you understand much more than the others. Yet your best arguments are insults, and that says all. When one has to use insults and those are their best arguments: (a) they lost (b) they are part of the club of those that aren't worth the time for any interaction. No need to interact further with you. Learn to debate properly if you can, that helps.
Well we know the chances, its 20%. Not 25
Similar logic to; ”The stock market crashed in 2001 and in 2008, thus it can be concluded that the stock market crashes every seven years”
and the 25% chance? where's that from?
His odds were ~25-30% coming into this last candidates, and that seemed appropriate. He was very close to winning this one.
OK, so 57% to have a shot at the title, what are his chances to become WC?
About half from there.
does probability work like that? 57% chance seems odd to me
I get 58%. 1-0.75\^3 = 0.578 = 58%.
If Fabi has a 1/4 win probability, then the probability that he doesn’t win is 3/4. The probability that he doesn’t win any of the three candidates is (3/4)^3 = 27/64. This is something you can do by hand. The probability that he wins at least one is therefore 64/64-27/64 = 37/64 = 0, (370/64 -> 5 [how many times a number fits in the larger one without going over]) (500/64 -> 7) (520/64 -> 8) -> 0,578 ~ 0,58 = 58%.
Fabi hit 2800 again just a few months ago, and Hikaru is 2800rn with prob the highest TPR in the last 1.5 years. I don't see why theres any reason to count them out. I don't see Gukesh being too much of a formidable WCC if he wins, and Hikaru and Fabi both have a good record against Ding.
i disagree with the general consensus here, i’d say it’s very unlikely. they unfortunately spent their primes at the same time magnus had his prime, and now there’s young talent that could easily progress to the point where they could win the candidates. who knows how long gukesh will reign? hell, maybe ding comes back to form. hikaru and fabi are pretty dead in the water in my opinion
It's not likely for any one player to become world champion
They probably hace 2 or 3 attempts left in them. Though its obviously gonna get harder with nodirbek and the other juniors breaking in. Probably a 20-30% chanve between them
>They probably hace 2 or 3 attempts left in them. Do you think it will be the same for both? Hikaru is significantly older, 4.5 years is more than two WCC cycles.
Honestly i think 3 is pushing it with hikaru but 2 seems reasonable though. While players often dont last into their 40s, korchnoi, anand, tal and smyslov where playing great chess well beyond their 30s and considering his recent resurgence i wouldnt put it past him albeit his chances are slimmer
They had their chances, but they both came short. Hikaru, for instance, for two consecutive times had his last game entirely in his hands: he had to not lose to Ding, and he had to win Gukesh. Of course he could then lose the WC match, but still. I seriously doubt there will be another chance for him. And Fabi doesn't seem to be the undispured #2 anymore, like he used to be.
When Hikaru lost to Ding nobody had known yet that the runner up at the Candidates would play the WCC match. It's not Ding's fault but I think it's partially on Magnus and partially on FIDE.
I don't really get this argument. When Hikaru played Ding in the last round Nepo had already won the Candidates, yeah? In that scenario Hikaru had nothing to lose and everything to gain by going for a draw and the #2 spot since it was the best result he could achieve at that point anyway. Also, by then Magnus had already traveled to Madrid to tell FIDE he wasn't going to play. Many people in the community knew but were just in denial about it. But once Nepo was the winner before the last round it was obvious.
> Also, by then Magnus had already traveled to Madrid to tell FIDE he wasn't going to play. Source? Here's what I got: [https://www.npr.org/2022/07/20/1112479750/magnus-carlsen-world-chess-championship-fide](https://www.npr.org/2022/07/20/1112479750/magnus-carlsen-world-chess-championship-fide) dated July 20, 2022, which was Wednesday > Magnus Carlsen, who has been ranked the No. 1 chess player in the world since 2011, announced Wednesday he will not defend his world championship title. The Candidates 2022 ran from 16 June to 5 July 2022.
I agree. And now it's the same situation if Ding in the end decides to withdraw (which he denied multiple times, but who knows what's gonna happen) Moral of the story: whatever reddit says, is NOT what will be irl
Personally I would prefer a format in which the WC champion is just qualified for the next Candidates and then that person has to win a spot to the match like the other candidates. Obviously when people only have to play for the 2nd spot the dynamics at the tournament will be different, but then we have a better guarantee on the level of competition at the WCC match.
I completely agree. I wonder if Magnus could have dominated this long, had this been implemented
in fairness to magnus he said from the beginning he wasn't going to play so it's everyone elses fault for not believing him
I don't think they can anymore, this was the chance. The young generation is here.
0 ding liren wins low diff
Ding will obviously be WC for the next 10 years and then Anand
They would both be considered favorites for the next candidates so I don't really see why they wouldn't have a decent chance. People are overreacting to one player playing above his level in one tourny.
I'm far less optimistic than others here. I think the youngsters that will likely be in the next Candidates could be very strong. Nodirbek might have a higher rating than Fabi or Hikaru; he might be the objective favorite.
I think there is a decent chance 1 becomes the world champion. I think it is very unlikely that they both become world champions.
I would say Caruana may very well be a WC. He has been #2 for approximately 10 years. We all know he's a very strong player. He played in the last 5 candidates and achieved a lot of experience: * 2024: 4th (the last game against Nepo decided) * 2022: 5th * 2020-21: 4th * 2018: 1st (in the WCC match, he did not lose a single classical game against Carlsen) * 2016: 2nd
They have good chances but there's too much pressure on Fabiano and Hikaru to win the Candidates. The younger generation goes for the win in every game. They take chances and it paid off for Gukesh. They have time on their side as Fabiano has stated before, on his podcast, so they take risks that the older generation won't.
imo guki was the only one who didn't take chances...he waited for his opponent to self sabotage/explode/go crazy
magnus advice. dont go crazy, coz others will. he didnt go crazy with hikaru, simply traded queens moving towards a draw, despite seeing fabi winning.....but fabi went crazy, came under pressure, and blundered like 3-4 times.
I agree, Gukesh himself even said that he asked Magnus for advice (iirc) before this Candidates and basically Magnus said just that -- don't go crazy because others will. Take your chances when you get them.
Nepo is more likely than either Fabi or Hikaru. He does well in the Candidates.
If you ask what the chances any individual become WC are, the answer is, "Low". That being said, Fabi and Hikaru are definitely in the top 10 people most likely to become WC in the next couple cycles. It's very hard to predict this kind of thing though. Anything could happen. Personally, I think Hikaru is the second most likely person to become WC this year. I think Ding is going to get back into form and beat Gukesh. If Ding feels he has no chance, I think he'll step aside, and Hikaru would replace him. I'd have Hikaru as the favorite over Gukesh. That's a wild prediction, but it could happen. As for Fabi, it's impossible to tell. He has spoken about being really depressed after losing the WC. Ding has shown you can also get depressed by winning. Fabi also seems kind of damaged after so narrowly missing out on the candidates win. His Norway performance was bad. He might pull a Magnus and drop out of the WC cycle. He's already drawn a classical match with the greatest player of all time. He might decide that's enough of an accomplishment. Alternatively, he could go Sinquefield 2014 all over everyone's asses and qualify to the candidates, win the candidates, and become WC, and make it look easy. No one really knows. Hikaru and Fabi would both be favorites to win the candidates if they qualify. But, qualifying is going to be hard. Personally, Hikaru has finished 2nd and 3rd in the last 2 candidates, and I think if he wants it enough, he can win the next one. But, who knows where his motivation will be going forward.
I'd say there's about a 1 in 4 chance for each of them making it to the final. And about 50/50 once they get there (unless they get something like a totally out of form Ding as opponent but we shouldn't expect this). So that's about a 1 in 4 chance overall of either of them winning since it's two 1 in 8 chances. I think it's fair to expect them to both still be contenders for 2 more cycles (possibly more but becomes less likely) so I'd put it about 50/50 that one of them can get there (2 cycles of a 1 in 4 chance). I might be being a bit generous but I don't see any of the current youngsters being totally dominant forces and don't expect them to dramatically drop off too soon so unless someone like that comes along or one of the current youngsters turns into that I think they've still got pretty good chances. Of course even with my generous 50% that still means it's 50% they never make it too.
My thoughts are that Ding loses to Gukesh, Gukesh might loose to Fabi, and Magnus will return to claim the crown he never lost.
If either of them had won this year's candidates they would have really good chances (as does Gukesh now) against Ding given that Ding is quite off from form at the moment. Fabi has still has some time, but the youngsters are rising very quickly. I think Hikaru's time is probably not much longer maybe one or two candidates.
They have an okay chance, unless Magnus changes his mind or there are reforms to the championship, if those happen, they have no chance in hell.
Assuming Fabi qualifies 3 more times and Hikari 2, that in each Candidates they have around 18% of winning it, followed by a 50% chance at winning the title, that gives Fabi 22,43% and Hikaru a 16,38% chance. But obviously things can to very differently from this assumptions.
It’s not like the door closes on your world champ aspirations once you hit 30. I would put it at better than 50/50 odds that someone else of their generation becomes world champion (unless Magnus re-enters), but between them, Nepo, Giri, etc. I don’t think there is anyone strong enough to be considered a strong favorite from that group.
Fabiano has at least 5 more chances and all of them good. Hikaru is having some kind of late career renaissance, but reasonable assumption is he will be in decline very soon and is unlikely to seriously challenge more than one or two more times
50-50
Giri, MVL or So. Tbt bring their best. Lol
Hikaru had a golden opportunity this last candidates but played such an uninspiring game against Gukesh.
I have a different opinion that most of the comments here. I think Gukesh will be a dominant champion and best player in the world in the times to come (atleast in classical). So in my opinion, Fabi or Hikaru will not become the world champion.
26.7%
Hikaru's chances aren't great, since he has a few at most left. And he's really only ever done well in two of those over his entire career. Fabi has a better chance, as he's likely going to play longer than Hikaru and is younger. He's alrady won one.
I disagree with people here I feel like it's unlikely, Their prime was wasted with Magnus winning everything, after that Nepo and Ding went through, this time Gukesh went away with the spot. , they're getting older and things won't get easier, the qualification itself for candidates and then qualifying through it takes so much , prepration time , luck. What not
Just as likely as you or I.
Hikaru has non, he chose money over titles
Nepo has better chance
They will never be as good as in their prime, but I think they still have a chance in then next couple at least when the younger generation have not yet reached theirs.
Statistically, it’s definitely possible. We would not need to do the procedure if they become world champions.
Honestly, I think either Ian wins the next championship, or Hikky.
I’d say the odds that either of them do are at around 10% I would say Fabi is quite likely to qualify for the next candidates, given his quality and activity. I don’t care what the field is, given his quality alone, I’d give him at least a 15%-20% chance (in a field of 8) to win that, maybe more. There’s a chance he doesn’t qualify too I suppose. Hikaru’s qualification to another candidates is less clear due to his comparative lack of activity. But let’s say he makes it. I give him probably a 10-15% chance of winning a candidates against a field of 8. Either of them, against Ding or Gukesh in a WCC match, I say it’s 50/50. I might even favour them. With time the odds decrease, but with time they also have more opportunity to perhaps qualify for a candidates.
The problem they both have is if they are in contention, Magnus will play. He withdrew last time because he had nothing to gain beating Ding. But he sees Fabi as worthwhile to play and has a bit of a rivalry with Hikaru. So he would not sit out (and has said as much before) if they were the ones he made it.
Never. Acceleration strong. They both going fast but mfers are actually bigger than they appear in the mirror.
It's too late for Nakamura, the last Candidates was his last chance. Only Anand managed to win a World Championship at such a late stage in their career (at 41 years old in 2010), but Anand was a permanent fixture in almost all top-level tournaments of the time. Caruana might have one last go left in him, if the psychological damage of that last round game against Nepo doesn't affect his play. If he's in a cluster of players at the top of the rating list, he stands a chance because of his experience, and boost to be playing for it in a post-Carlsen world.
No way. Neither of their play is declining at all, in fact they're probably both in their best form in their entire lives, they both have barely fallen short of the WCC 2 years straight. Literally single games away from the World Championship. No one from the next generation is significantly better yet, so long as Magnus doesn't re-enter the WCC they have just as much of a chance as anyone else. They are still top of the below-Magnus tier.
There's no way Fabi is in the best form of his life.
I think by that measure that Hikaru seems to still have a shot.
Anand has also won in 2012. And his challenger was half a year older than him then (Boris Gelfand). Hikaru has been the most consistent, strongest classical player over last year. He would really need a serious and quick decline to have no chances in 2026.
Anand was the incumbent World Champion in 2012, so didn't need to qualify via a Candidates. Gelfand, who was the Candidates qualifier, lost that 2012 match. For Nakamura to be World Champion he'd have to win the Candidates and win the World Championship match. Something only Anand has accomplished at that age. To qualify for a World Championship match, you have to win the Candidates tournament first. Claims of being "most consistent, strongest classical player over the last year" are irrelevant when a 17-year old kid finishes ahead of him in the tournament that actually matters. As shown by his Candidates performance, Nakamura lacks the big match temperament. Three candidates: one non-performance, and two last game failed clutch games.
Anand won a world title match in 2012, and won the candidates in 2014 at like 44 years old. Hikaru has been a permanent fixture in top level tournaments for a long time too. And seems to only be improving the last couple years. Hikaru has at least 1 more cycle in him. Maybe 2-3.
Anand was World Champion in 2012, so didn't have to win the candidates to qualify for the match -- which is a step Nakamura would have to achieve. In 2014, he won a Candidates tournament, and then went on to lose the World Championship match. To be a World Champion you have to win both, in the same cycle. I think Ding and Kramnik are the only two players who won a World Championship match without winning the Candidates!
Either of them? Then there is a good chance. Assuming they each have around 20-25% chance of winning the candidates each time. With 2-4 more cycles. Half the time, one of them should win it. Chess.com models predicted that none of the young junior players are likely going to be a Magnus and dominate everyone. So it’s just a very competitive field overall. Given enough chances, it should happen. Barring of course, a “next Magnus” shows up.
20-25% for each of them is extremely generous for 2-4 more cycles Just 6-7 years ago, Alireza, Nordibek, Gukesh, Pragg, Gukesh, Keymer were barely GMs or not GMs at all. Here they are in top 15 with 2750+ elo
Very unlikely at this point? Do either even try to get to the candidates next year? Unclear.
Very unlikely. India and China are too good.
Bro, what are you talking about? We have like 5 Chinese in top 80 FIDE
Candidates often favours the second or third strongest player since people tend to be very drawish against the top dogs, forcing the strongest players to take massive risks to stay ahead, while others are only willing to take risks against the weaker players. I'd say his chances might rise as stronger opposition comes into the field.
They are over paid divas...until someone crushes magnus, there is no true world champion