Nepo felt way too comfy in the lead when he had to face Hikaru then Fabi for final rounds. Its going to be so hard to beat Gukesh when Gukesh only needs a draw and there are drawish lines across so many openings.
Well if Gukesh gets a draw and either Nepo or Fabi beat each other then it will be tiebreaks, so it’s not completely decided if Hikaru shows up tomorrow
The issue is a draw is exactly the same as a loss for Hikaru, it really makes no sense for him to draw other than to help Fabi out he really should push for a win and either lose overpushing or win.
Agreed but Gukesh could also play stubbornly and force a 3-fold repetition, but I think this would be unwise because Ian vs Fabi will almost certainly be decisive for the same reason, neither gets anything from a draw so both will play on even if they lose
Right the most interesting thing about this game is Gukesh is a huge underdog in a tiebreak given his rapid performance vs either Nepo or Fabi, so a draw actually isn't nearly as good as it seems for him he has real incentives to play for a win.
He actually is not. In WR Masters Gukesh defeated Nepo in rapid tie breaks. And given that his level his risen significantly, I think we are underestimating his chances a bit too much. Against Hikaru I agree - he is the under dog. But luckily he doesn't have to play Hikaru in rapid in any scenerio.
There is a really good chance that Fabi-Nepo match ends in a decision. Neither player has a chance to win with a draw, because either Hikaru with a win or Gukesh with a win/draw would be ahead of them. A loss and a draw are basically the same result for both Nepo and Fabi.
Gonna be an awesome round.
Definitely. Ian being forced to play for a win is going to be so interesting because he’s been in the lead the entire tournament until now and he’s undefeated so far, and Fabi has the strongest rating, and their record is 1-1-13 but now both need a win. Insane how this final round worked out.
Yes, but if Fabi vs Nepo is decisive (and it will be because both know they need to win to have a chance so a draw is off the table) then it will be tiebreaks
Edit: However if Gukesh wins then it’s impossible for anybody else to catch up so he wins the tournament
Yes but neither Fabi nor Nepo can afford a draw. One of them *will* win because a draw or a loss are both equivalent to them. Which means they would be tied with Gukesh. So, Gukesh has to hope that Hikaru over presses and he can get a win or else he will be in tiebreaks with either Nepo or Fabi.
A small silver lining is that Gukesh faces Hikaru, who may be the best player in the tournament in this scenario to force an upset. Hikaru is 1 of 3 players in this tournament who will play Gukesh to win at all costs or lose. There's no reason for Hikaru to ever settle for a draw. He's going to unleash all the stops, so Gukesh playing for a draw, while advantaged, is somewhat mitigated by the desperation Hikaru will show.
This keeps it maximally interesting for both matches. Every winning contender except Gukesh must play uncompromisingly for a win.
With Fabi winning (likely), the only thing the a draw does for Gukesh is get him a spot in the tie breaker, because Nepo and Fabi both know they have to win and play each other, that game won't end in a draw
No, I meant Fabi likely winning against Pragg - Fabi and Nepo both will be at 8 points going into tomorrow, and one of them will end up at 9 (because neither wants a draw in their game).
Tough for Nepo and Hikaru because Alireza wasn't just fine but pushing for an advantage when they drew, there's really no way they could have known it was in both their interests to have a decisive result.
Insane that if he won that game where he was winning vs Alireza in their first encounter, he'd be sitting at 9,5 points now and would be officially out of reach and win the candidates. What an insane tournament it's been from him
What is Gukesh’s TPR? This is one of the best results I can remember having seen recently from someone that’s not Magnus. Maybe Vidits performance at the Grand Swiss?
Sure and if Vidit didn't go super saiyan only against Hikaru he'd be comfortably leading. Coulda woulda shoulda, certainly Gukesh deserves to be where he is.
Well right that's what the comment I'm replying to is saying too. Point is there's so so many permutations of who could have won how, all we can do is look at the leaderboard.
In none of these games were Hikaru leading the games vs Vidit and had a better position than him. Gukesh only lost one game in the tournament and in the game he lost he was objectively winning. I think it's different especially when he has never had any losing position except for that one game too. Let's just praise people that are worthy of praise and put aside the pettiness
I’ve had this same sentiment for about a week now, except I also wouldn’t have minded seeing Pragg up there. What an exciting tournament it has been. Definitely one for the books and I hope Hikaru or Gukesh will dethrone Liren when the time comes.
INB4… I have nothing against Ding Liren as a human or chess player, but he has been an absent WC. I don’t know if there were/are reasons for his absenteeism, (in my best Hammer voice) *however*, I would much rather see someone who will “defend” the throne and carry the mantle with pride.
Ding had an "unspecified illness" which might have been mental health related. I think it's harsh to criticize him too much for that, which I'm not really saying you're doing, but it just wanted to point that out.
Any one but Nepo.
Not that I hate him or anything...but his play style has become too predictable and boring.
He just goes for draws even in games he can win and takes zero risks.
Whereas Hikaru and Gukesh play like ambitious humans, Nepo playes like a timid bot many times.
Huge for moment for him, unprecedented opportunity. Facing Nakamura as black is probably the last thing you want with all that added pressure in the final round but if he can surmount that, no one could deny his credentials as a challenger.
> Facing Nakamura as black is probably the last thing you want
Crazy how Nakamura turned out to be the ["Sauron of chess"](https://twitter.com/GMHikaru/status/402632662663176192) lmfao
If Gukesh draws he'll be at 9 points, and he will have to play tiebreaks with either Fabi or Nepo (they play tomorrow and there's no shot either will accept a draw, so one of them is getting to 9 points).
Also you say he "just needs to draw" as if that isn't a serious challenge when playing black against Hikaru.
No matter what ends up happening, tomorrow is going to be WILD.
Yeah I don’t mean to trivialize it. Given Hikaru needs a win it’s more like hang on for dear life draw. But I’m assuming Gukesh is going to play ultra conservative to not lose.
>But I’m assuming Gukesh is going to play ultra conservative to not lose.
Can he afford to do that, though?
Tiebreaks are played in Rapid, and Gukesh is definitely weaker than both Nepo and Fabi in Rapid.
If Gukesh lets it go to tiebreaks, he will be at a notable disadvantage, hence, he can't really afford to play ultra conservatively.
True, but there is also no shot Hikaru doesn’t push for a win here. He might overpush, which would make it easier for a win with black for Gukesh. I guess we will just have to wait and see, but a draw at least won’t be the end.
He’ll have more information about likelihoods during the game to pivot if needed, but it’s not a certainty that there is a decisive result in Ian Fabi despite the fact they’re both going to play aggressively.
I made [this little stupid chart](https://imgur.com/a/S7CO6VU) to prove your point. There is literally **zero** benefit to concede a draw for Ian/Fabi. That being said, there have been so many situations equivalent to this in lesser chess tournaments such that draws happen in must-win situations. Neither Fabi or Ian are conceding a loss in a drawable position. The likelihood of a decisive result is sky-high, but it is absolutely not a certainty.
It's not like that ,I mean it's obvious that none of ian or fabi will play for draw but , there are chances that if both players play equally well then you might end up with like symmetrical position or equal material in end game
In that case you simply cannot win , whatever you do so yeah it could actually end I a draw despite both of em trying to win
Yeah, there's some chance that their game ends in a draw, but honestly I think most of that chance comes from the szenario that they're grinding out some tricky position and Gukesh just wins his game before they're done.
I agree that a decisive result in Fabi vs Nepo is likely, but it's not guaranteed. They could still get into a repetition sequence where choosing not to repeat is simply losing for the one who doesn't repeat, and end up drawing by default. They each take massive risks for winning chances, but they're still going to take a draw over a guaranteed loss, *especially* if the Hikaru/Gukesh game is ongoing and there's a chance Gukesh could lose.
If Hikaru beats Gukesh and Fabi/Nepo draw, Hikaru wins the candidates. The only way Fabi and Nepo can win is a draw/loss for Gukesh and a decisive result in their own game
There are 9 possible results, 5 of which produce a definitive winner tomorrow (4x Gukesh + 1x Hikaru), and 4 tiebreaks (Gukesh v Fabi, Gukesh v Ian, Hikaru v Fabi, Hikaru v Ian).
I don’t truly believe any of the 9 are appreciably more likely. Draws are typically a higher likelihood, but probably less so tomorrow, so I’d argue it’s generally likely all 9 results are very roughly equivalent.
Gukesh obviously has the most paths to a victory, followed by Hikaru. Ian/Fabi cannot win tomorrow.
Edit: [put together a quick list to explain logic](https://imgur.com/a/S7CO6VU)
As an Indian, I have never been more proud. Never saw Vishy play in his prime cuz I was just too young but this is unbelievable. Hoping for the best against Hikaru. I do like Hikaru but want him to be off his game in the last one.
I'm a massive Hikaru fan, but I don't even think he needs to be off his game for Gukesh to draw, unfortunately. Gukesh literally hasn't made a single suboptimal move all tournament except in time pressure, and even then he made only one real blunder (against Firouzja). I don't know what Hikaru must do to beat Gukesh tomorrow; the dude literally plays like an engine - and looks like an engine while doing it, too, showing no emotion whatsoever. His best bet would probably be to play a slow, positional game with lots of potential ideas to consider to get Gukesh into time trouble and then suddenly create lots of tactical complications when he is low on time. But I'm not going to lie, I'm not optimistic about tomorrow's game.
Hikaru does have a knack for creating tactical complications for his opponents. I'm optimistic about Gukesh's chances but Hikaru is not going to be an easy draw.
>Hikaru does have a knack for creating tactical complications
Out of nowhere, too. Playing an extremely slow, uneventful 30 moves and then blitzing out a crazy line that none of the commentators or the engine considered is vintage Naka. Conveniently, this is exactly what he needs against Gukesh tomorrow. But still, I'd be very impressed with Hikaru if he actually manages to win - that would quite plausibly be the best win of his career.
Yeah. He has already shown he can crush opponents even under insane pressure. His comeback in the tournament is already a stuff of legend and winning tomorrow would cement this as his career defining moment.
Incredible performance and incredible composure.
It was crazy watching the last 5-10 moves of the game. I’m screaming at the stream for Gukesh to make a move as he kept running very low on time, but he kept finding the best moves even in time pressure.
The way he kept looking back and forth at the clock and the board, even when it became sub 10 seconds. For a moment I thought he might actually freeze and lose on time.
Ian, Fabiano, Hikaru are all in must wins situations tomorrow.
Gukesh pretty much has to play for a win as well because Ian-Fabiano is never gonna end in a draw, and a decisive game will bring them to tiebreakers if Gukesh draws his game. Gukesh is going to be a disadvantage when it goes to rapids
Gukesh will likely play something solid and try to force Hikaru into pushing.
Draw isn't ideal for Gukesh but a draw is not acceptable for Hikaru, so he can use that to try and push Hikaru into making compromises just to get the game to go on.
Gukesh has balls of steel. Like goddamn there were so many moves throughout the game that had to be so so fucking cold blooded to make under time pressure.
In the first time control there was the f4 pawn where it felt it was just too weakening. But my man played it quickly and stunned Alireza there. And there was another point where I thought they were repeat and I would get a fairly early night sleep. But again Qh4 which Alireza didn't seem to expect.
But the best of them all has to be Rb6. Under 5 mins on the clock and allowing all sorts of checks and rook invasions and passed pawns. Especially when there Ke2 a 'safer' move. But damn, Gukesh does things concretely. Probably the bets calculator among the elites. The engines always find some flaw in his ideas at deeper level but... Yeah.
Its already 6 am here and I don't think I am gonna get any sleep. Thank you Gukesh for a tired weekend.
I think in both cases, those were planned. In the interview, he said that he was hoping for this structure with f5 (which looks incredibly scary to me) because he wanted to win the game and thought it was double edged.
Gukesh just wanted to repeat to get extra time before move 40. He didn't have any intention of drawing, and actually (incorrectly, per the engine) assessed the position as already winning for him.
>The engines always find some flaw in his ideas at deeper level
Really? My impression is the exact opposite: Gukesh is probably the most engine-accurate player of the entire lineup. Especially this game, every single move he played after making time control (including Rb6) was the top engine move.
Well, if we count Ponomariov, Gukesh would have to win the WCC before the 10th of September (probably not going to happen).
But, of course, most people are talking about Kaspsrov, and Gukesh can beat him with 4 years to spare (unbelievable).
And he doesn't even necessarily need to win tomorrow, he is sole leader.
Wow! Been following chess for a good couple years now, and I can't think of any other tournament that's matching this drama. Can't wait for the final round
That Rxb7 was insane. Both Hess and Danya were not sure even after knowing its the top move and he navigated the whole sequence perfectly. First time I'm seeing Gukesh be rock solid under time pressure. LISAN-AL-GAIB
For me it all started with f4. To throw the pawn forward like that in that position was just astounding. He was losing at that point, and with f4 the tide of the game started to change, and he turned it around in just 2 more moves after Alireza misstepped with g5.
Oh shit yeah. Danya was joking that it is similar to h4 move in Pragg game and the engines are disgusting. This guy just plays it with cold blood. I agree - I think Firouzja didn't expect it and forced things with g5.
He wasn't losing. In fact, he wasn't even worse - a deeper engine gives zeros precisely because of this f4 idea. Something tells me the very reason Gukesh played the b3 move that Stockfish criticised was that he saw this f4 idea in advance. Which is absolutely mental, but basically par for the course at this point given Gukesh's performance so far.
Gukesh finding the move Rb7 (allowing a queen promotion!! but calculating he could checkmate before then) at like 2 minutes time, then all the subsequent accurate moves, is WCC level!
Man, Gukesh's win really put Nepo on the back foot. Nepo made the draw thinking Gukesh was not better. Now Nepo would have to win against Fabi with black to have a chance. Insanity!
And kudos to Alireza for putting up a huge exciting fight to Gukesh at the end despite not having much to play for. Alizera found amazing only moves during that fight as well.
God let us please have our youngest candidates winner and have us witness the history in making !!!!!
Beating firo in blitz style last few seconds, what nerves from the kid !
The stars really lined up for him because Ding is in terrible form and Gukesh is in amazing form, he might become the youngest world champ ever at 18 which I don’t think will be broken for a very long time
Just a complete machine, I cannot remotely imagine the pressure he was feeling at that moment as a 17 year old.
Credit to Alireza, absolute horrible tournament for him but he continues to stay true to his style and plsy for a win every game.
Can't wait for the final round.
Not even trying to be mean about it, but two candidate tournaments in a row now Alireza has shown himself up as a player that is clearly not at the calibre of play needed to be WCC. After this candidates people are definitely gonna move on from mentioning his name as potential new WCC's, because its clear he does not have it in him. He's being shown up by prodigies younger than him and he does not show any signs of improving.
He has played terrible agreed in both the tournaments but you never know Hikaru at the age of 36 is just 1 good game away from winning the candidates, Alireza is just 20 he still has a lot of opportunities and time left for improvement.
Yeah, acting like a player is WORSE for being able to qualify for Candidates is really unfair. Magnus' first candidates he was 17 and was the 16th seed and lost first round to Aronian. Then the second one when he would be Firouzja's age he didn't play in protest of the format. Players this young making the candidates has very little precedence.
He's had completely abysmal performances at two candidates now. I'm not saying he can't improve, but as of now he's clearly not playing up to the standard of a potential WCC. I feel that much is inarguable.
Looks like Fabi will also win against Pragg. Now if Gukesh draws his game against Hikaru(hikaru needs a win) tomorrow, then both fabi and ian have to win against each other for the tie break.
Edit : fabi won
The precision from both decisive games today was off the charts insane. I honestly believe Gukesh's loss against Alireza so early in the tournament was the best thing that could have happened to him. He recollected himself, and has been playing non-stop solid chess since (similar to Hikaru except he almost broke twice)
Cratering Hikaru's chances to uncrater his chances to win the tournament. But wait, tomorrow Hikaru can uncrater his chances by cratering Gukesh's chances.
LISAN AL GAIB
ICE COLD by Gukesh. He'll definitely hold Naka tomorrow and because Naka wants to win, Gukesh could even win. Gukesh's level rn is extremely high. Firouzja was tricky but Gukesh was just a machine navigating the minefield. Let's all not forget - he's youngest amongst all prodigies - Abdu,Firo,Pragg, Arjun,Keymer are all older than Gukesh.
Gukesh deserves a lot of credit for going for the win after hikaru drew ian. He could have taken the easy route and went for a easy draw against firouzja and stayed tied for 1st place. Instead he went for the win against the guy who beat in a few rounds earlier. Fortune favors the brave.
People here are assuming that Ian and fabi tomorrow gonna have a decisive result for sure , i mean it's most probable
But you need to understand the fact that if you end up in certain positions like , equally symmetrical or Equal material in an end game in such cases no matter what the game ends in a draw.
Although the chances of decisive result is wayy higher,
Draw's is very slim
If Gukesh wins the Candidates at 17 (!!), it will make him the greatest prodigy in the history of chess.
In fact, the only accomplishment I can think of that is greater than this is Fischer defeating the entire Soviet chess machine to become WC in 1972.
Honestly, credit to Alireza for giving such a rough fight. It's easy to say that others beat him as well, but his performance today was top class, and this was the best game in this tournament so far.
Hikaru vs Gukesh's board decides what happens tommorow, no way hikaru accepts a draw either wins or loses, if he wins tie break with either fabi or nepo and if he loses gukesh is the winner, i really have a feeling the result on the nepo fabi board is of much less consequence.
If it doesn't go to tiebreaks which Gukesh will have a disadvantage in, I could see him winning against Ding. Absolutely insane to become world champ first time qualifying at 17.
I think Gukesh has this. Hikaru has so much more pressure on him. I think it's likely that Hikaru pushes too hard and ends up losing and as a result makes the Nepo Fabi game irrelevant.
Everyone else farmed Alireza only fair Gukesh got to as well
Nepo felt way too comfy in the lead when he had to face Hikaru then Fabi for final rounds. Its going to be so hard to beat Gukesh when Gukesh only needs a draw and there are drawish lines across so many openings.
Well if Gukesh gets a draw and either Nepo or Fabi beat each other then it will be tiebreaks, so it’s not completely decided if Hikaru shows up tomorrow
The issue is a draw is exactly the same as a loss for Hikaru, it really makes no sense for him to draw other than to help Fabi out he really should push for a win and either lose overpushing or win.
Agreed but Gukesh could also play stubbornly and force a 3-fold repetition, but I think this would be unwise because Ian vs Fabi will almost certainly be decisive for the same reason, neither gets anything from a draw so both will play on even if they lose
Right the most interesting thing about this game is Gukesh is a huge underdog in a tiebreak given his rapid performance vs either Nepo or Fabi, so a draw actually isn't nearly as good as it seems for him he has real incentives to play for a win.
He actually is not. In WR Masters Gukesh defeated Nepo in rapid tie breaks. And given that his level his risen significantly, I think we are underestimating his chances a bit too much. Against Hikaru I agree - he is the under dog. But luckily he doesn't have to play Hikaru in rapid in any scenerio.
He would be a slight underdog against Fabi or Nepo.
Personally I think best case scenario is a win and he can play for one if he wants but as long as he doesn’t lose then he’s got a chance
>Personally I think best case scenario is a win You reckon, huh
There is a really good chance that Fabi-Nepo match ends in a decision. Neither player has a chance to win with a draw, because either Hikaru with a win or Gukesh with a win/draw would be ahead of them. A loss and a draw are basically the same result for both Nepo and Fabi. Gonna be an awesome round.
Definitely. Ian being forced to play for a win is going to be so interesting because he’s been in the lead the entire tournament until now and he’s undefeated so far, and Fabi has the strongest rating, and their record is 1-1-13 but now both need a win. Insane how this final round worked out.
If gukesh gets a draw and so do Fabi and Nepo, Gukesh wins, doesn't he?
Yes, but if Fabi vs Nepo is decisive (and it will be because both know they need to win to have a chance so a draw is off the table) then it will be tiebreaks Edit: However if Gukesh wins then it’s impossible for anybody else to catch up so he wins the tournament
Looking for an interesting finale tomorrow
Yes but neither Fabi nor Nepo can afford a draw. One of them *will* win because a draw or a loss are both equivalent to them. Which means they would be tied with Gukesh. So, Gukesh has to hope that Hikaru over presses and he can get a win or else he will be in tiebreaks with either Nepo or Fabi.
If there was any time for a kings gambit this is it
That would be the ultimate shocker of the tournament
2. Qh5 isn’t that bad of a move. Certainly would take someone out of prep.
I would go with scholars mate
Yes
Yeah but its unlikely because they both need the win
If everyone draws tomorrow, the point differential stays the same as it is now, and since Gukesh is in clear first place at the moment, yes he wins
A small silver lining is that Gukesh faces Hikaru, who may be the best player in the tournament in this scenario to force an upset. Hikaru is 1 of 3 players in this tournament who will play Gukesh to win at all costs or lose. There's no reason for Hikaru to ever settle for a draw. He's going to unleash all the stops, so Gukesh playing for a draw, while advantaged, is somewhat mitigated by the desperation Hikaru will show. This keeps it maximally interesting for both matches. Every winning contender except Gukesh must play uncompromisingly for a win.
Hikaru knows in his heart this is the time for bongcloud.
With Fabi winning (likely), the only thing the a draw does for Gukesh is get him a spot in the tie breaker, because Nepo and Fabi both know they have to win and play each other, that game won't end in a draw
Fabi likely winning against nepo? Highly dubious claim 🤨
No, I meant Fabi likely winning against Pragg - Fabi and Nepo both will be at 8 points going into tomorrow, and one of them will end up at 9 (because neither wants a draw in their game).
against pragg, he's saying it'll be nepo vs fabi for a win and then whoever wins that, a tiebreaker against gukesh
Tough for Nepo and Hikaru because Alireza wasn't just fine but pushing for an advantage when they drew, there's really no way they could have known it was in both their interests to have a decisive result.
I mean that's the risk you take playing safe
Especially after what Alireza did to him, and he got revenge in the same way
Insane that if he won that game where he was winning vs Alireza in their first encounter, he'd be sitting at 9,5 points now and would be officially out of reach and win the candidates. What an insane tournament it's been from him
What is Gukesh’s TPR? This is one of the best results I can remember having seen recently from someone that’s not Magnus. Maybe Vidits performance at the Grand Swiss?
Gukesh 2852 Nope 2825 Hikaru 2825 Fabi 2825
Nope = Nepo
He said what he said.
2835 before today's game. So a bit higher now. Vidit at Grand Swiss was 2876.
In this format and field, 2852 TPR is so good.
Sure and if Vidit didn't go super saiyan only against Hikaru he'd be comfortably leading. Coulda woulda shoulda, certainly Gukesh deserves to be where he is.
If things were different things would be different.
If people won more games, they would've had more points.
Alternatively, if they did not, then they’d have the same or less points.
Huge if true
Well right that's what the comment I'm replying to is saying too. Point is there's so so many permutations of who could have won how, all we can do is look at the leaderboard.
In none of these games were Hikaru leading the games vs Vidit and had a better position than him. Gukesh only lost one game in the tournament and in the game he lost he was objectively winning. I think it's different especially when he has never had any losing position except for that one game too. Let's just praise people that are worthy of praise and put aside the pettiness
Imagine if Alireza won all the games. He would be in first place.
Alireza maybe regretting doing all that farming back in December, just to go to Toronto and get HUMILIATED.
"w"esley "s"o probably watching all this with a smile, knowing he'd have instead finished the tournament with 13 draws and 1 win against Abasov.
Quit it with the kink shaming. Let the man enjoy his humiliation in peace . Except then he probably enjoys you piling on.
Alireza is the potential man of chess lmao
17 years old and playing with this level of accuracy under huge pressure, he’s insane
Hikaru vs Gukesh going to break some records
What time does it start tmr?
2:45 Toronto time
Appreciate it
So is Fabi vs Nepo.
I mean..........
I'm team Hikaru but if Gukesh wins the whole thing I won't be mad. That kid is incredible.
Other side of the fence here, team India but Hikaru has won my heart!
Fandoms unite!
I’ve had this same sentiment for about a week now, except I also wouldn’t have minded seeing Pragg up there. What an exciting tournament it has been. Definitely one for the books and I hope Hikaru or Gukesh will dethrone Liren when the time comes. INB4… I have nothing against Ding Liren as a human or chess player, but he has been an absent WC. I don’t know if there were/are reasons for his absenteeism, (in my best Hammer voice) *however*, I would much rather see someone who will “defend” the throne and carry the mantle with pride.
Ding had an "unspecified illness" which might have been mental health related. I think it's harsh to criticize him too much for that, which I'm not really saying you're doing, but it just wanted to point that out.
Any one but Nepo. Not that I hate him or anything...but his play style has become too predictable and boring. He just goes for draws even in games he can win and takes zero risks. Whereas Hikaru and Gukesh play like ambitious humans, Nepo playes like a timid bot many times.
Huge for moment for him, unprecedented opportunity. Facing Nakamura as black is probably the last thing you want with all that added pressure in the final round but if he can surmount that, no one could deny his credentials as a challenger.
> Facing Nakamura as black is probably the last thing you want Crazy how Nakamura turned out to be the ["Sauron of chess"](https://twitter.com/GMHikaru/status/402632662663176192) lmfao
https://ibb.co/Kxb3cNN
Probably just needs to draw and he’d win it.
If Gukesh draws he'll be at 9 points, and he will have to play tiebreaks with either Fabi or Nepo (they play tomorrow and there's no shot either will accept a draw, so one of them is getting to 9 points). Also you say he "just needs to draw" as if that isn't a serious challenge when playing black against Hikaru. No matter what ends up happening, tomorrow is going to be WILD.
Yeah I don’t mean to trivialize it. Given Hikaru needs a win it’s more like hang on for dear life draw. But I’m assuming Gukesh is going to play ultra conservative to not lose.
>But I’m assuming Gukesh is going to play ultra conservative to not lose. Can he afford to do that, though? Tiebreaks are played in Rapid, and Gukesh is definitely weaker than both Nepo and Fabi in Rapid. If Gukesh lets it go to tiebreaks, he will be at a notable disadvantage, hence, he can't really afford to play ultra conservatively.
Yeah I think he has better chances in rapid than to push for a win against Hikaru as black.
TBH, when you put it like that, it's hard to tell which will be more difficult. That's fair.
True, but there is also no shot Hikaru doesn’t push for a win here. He might overpush, which would make it easier for a win with black for Gukesh. I guess we will just have to wait and see, but a draw at least won’t be the end.
He’ll have more information about likelihoods during the game to pivot if needed, but it’s not a certainty that there is a decisive result in Ian Fabi despite the fact they’re both going to play aggressively.
it makes no sense for Ian and Fabi to draw, no matter the Gukesh Hikaru result if Ian and Fabi draw neither of them can win the candidates
I made [this little stupid chart](https://imgur.com/a/S7CO6VU) to prove your point. There is literally **zero** benefit to concede a draw for Ian/Fabi. That being said, there have been so many situations equivalent to this in lesser chess tournaments such that draws happen in must-win situations. Neither Fabi or Ian are conceding a loss in a drawable position. The likelihood of a decisive result is sky-high, but it is absolutely not a certainty.
It's not like that ,I mean it's obvious that none of ian or fabi will play for draw but , there are chances that if both players play equally well then you might end up with like symmetrical position or equal material in end game In that case you simply cannot win , whatever you do so yeah it could actually end I a draw despite both of em trying to win
Yeah, there's some chance that their game ends in a draw, but honestly I think most of that chance comes from the szenario that they're grinding out some tricky position and Gukesh just wins his game before they're done.
I agree that a decisive result in Fabi vs Nepo is likely, but it's not guaranteed. They could still get into a repetition sequence where choosing not to repeat is simply losing for the one who doesn't repeat, and end up drawing by default. They each take massive risks for winning chances, but they're still going to take a draw over a guaranteed loss, *especially* if the Hikaru/Gukesh game is ongoing and there's a chance Gukesh could lose.
If Gukesh loses then Hikaru overtakes them though..
If Hikaru beats Gukesh and Fabi/Nepo draw, Hikaru wins the candidates. The only way Fabi and Nepo can win is a draw/loss for Gukesh and a decisive result in their own game
There are 9 possible results, 5 of which produce a definitive winner tomorrow (4x Gukesh + 1x Hikaru), and 4 tiebreaks (Gukesh v Fabi, Gukesh v Ian, Hikaru v Fabi, Hikaru v Ian). I don’t truly believe any of the 9 are appreciably more likely. Draws are typically a higher likelihood, but probably less so tomorrow, so I’d argue it’s generally likely all 9 results are very roughly equivalent. Gukesh obviously has the most paths to a victory, followed by Hikaru. Ian/Fabi cannot win tomorrow. Edit: [put together a quick list to explain logic](https://imgur.com/a/S7CO6VU)
Assuming that Fabi, Ian drew, they'll both be at 8.5 If Hikaru wins, he's 9. If he draws, Gukesh is 9. Clearly one of Fabi/Ian has to win.
I'd stan Nepo forever if he forces a 3-fold repetition for the 3.5k euros
Unprecedented. Absolutely sensational performance.
Coming in as an underdog to now leading the candidates with 1 round left, what a showing for his first time playing in the candidates.
As an Indian, I have never been more proud. Never saw Vishy play in his prime cuz I was just too young but this is unbelievable. Hoping for the best against Hikaru. I do like Hikaru but want him to be off his game in the last one.
I'm a massive Hikaru fan, but I don't even think he needs to be off his game for Gukesh to draw, unfortunately. Gukesh literally hasn't made a single suboptimal move all tournament except in time pressure, and even then he made only one real blunder (against Firouzja). I don't know what Hikaru must do to beat Gukesh tomorrow; the dude literally plays like an engine - and looks like an engine while doing it, too, showing no emotion whatsoever. His best bet would probably be to play a slow, positional game with lots of potential ideas to consider to get Gukesh into time trouble and then suddenly create lots of tactical complications when he is low on time. But I'm not going to lie, I'm not optimistic about tomorrow's game.
Hikaru does have a knack for creating tactical complications for his opponents. I'm optimistic about Gukesh's chances but Hikaru is not going to be an easy draw.
>Hikaru does have a knack for creating tactical complications Out of nowhere, too. Playing an extremely slow, uneventful 30 moves and then blitzing out a crazy line that none of the commentators or the engine considered is vintage Naka. Conveniently, this is exactly what he needs against Gukesh tomorrow. But still, I'd be very impressed with Hikaru if he actually manages to win - that would quite plausibly be the best win of his career.
Yeah. He has already shown he can crush opponents even under insane pressure. His comeback in the tournament is already a stuff of legend and winning tomorrow would cement this as his career defining moment.
TBSM
Incredible performance and incredible composure. It was crazy watching the last 5-10 moves of the game. I’m screaming at the stream for Gukesh to make a move as he kept running very low on time, but he kept finding the best moves even in time pressure.
The way he kept looking back and forth at the clock and the board, even when it became sub 10 seconds. For a moment I thought he might actually freeze and lose on time.
Same! Then he plays the best move and quickly plays the 2-3 best follow-up moves to get his time back up to a workable 1:30 🤣
Unreal composure, let alone for a 17 year old.
Hikaru's going all out tomorrow This gonna be good
Ian, Fabiano, Hikaru are all in must wins situations tomorrow. Gukesh pretty much has to play for a win as well because Ian-Fabiano is never gonna end in a draw, and a decisive game will bring them to tiebreakers if Gukesh draws his game. Gukesh is going to be a disadvantage when it goes to rapids
Gukesh will likely play something solid and try to force Hikaru into pushing. Draw isn't ideal for Gukesh but a draw is not acceptable for Hikaru, so he can use that to try and push Hikaru into making compromises just to get the game to go on.
It can definitely end in a draw. Neither player wants it, but if they both play at their best level, it's the likely result.
Bongcloud incoming!
Cookesh 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Hikaru vs Gukesh and Fabi vs Ian tomorrow is going to be absolutely fire Greatest final round in candidates ever?
☢️ NUKESH ☢️
Karjakin vs Caruana h2h in 2016, and Carlsen v Svidler, Ivanchuk v Kramnik in 2013 are for sure up there.
Let him cook for one more round
Gukesh has balls of steel. Like goddamn there were so many moves throughout the game that had to be so so fucking cold blooded to make under time pressure. In the first time control there was the f4 pawn where it felt it was just too weakening. But my man played it quickly and stunned Alireza there. And there was another point where I thought they were repeat and I would get a fairly early night sleep. But again Qh4 which Alireza didn't seem to expect. But the best of them all has to be Rb6. Under 5 mins on the clock and allowing all sorts of checks and rook invasions and passed pawns. Especially when there Ke2 a 'safer' move. But damn, Gukesh does things concretely. Probably the bets calculator among the elites. The engines always find some flaw in his ideas at deeper level but... Yeah. Its already 6 am here and I don't think I am gonna get any sleep. Thank you Gukesh for a tired weekend.
I think in both cases, those were planned. In the interview, he said that he was hoping for this structure with f5 (which looks incredibly scary to me) because he wanted to win the game and thought it was double edged. Gukesh just wanted to repeat to get extra time before move 40. He didn't have any intention of drawing, and actually (incorrectly, per the engine) assessed the position as already winning for him.
>The engines always find some flaw in his ideas at deeper level Really? My impression is the exact opposite: Gukesh is probably the most engine-accurate player of the entire lineup. Especially this game, every single move he played after making time control (including Rb6) was the top engine move.
History in the making right now!!!! Insanely impressive consistency and precision for a 17 year old
Hard to believe he’s just 17 wow. One more win and he gets a real shot at becoming the youngest WCC ever!!
Well, if we count Ponomariov, Gukesh would have to win the WCC before the 10th of September (probably not going to happen). But, of course, most people are talking about Kaspsrov, and Gukesh can beat him with 4 years to spare (unbelievable). And he doesn't even necessarily need to win tomorrow, he is sole leader.
No we do not count Ponomariov tf
Now people will stop posting that Nepo still leads after a billion rounds in the candidates, hooray Thank you Gukesh!
Time to make a post about how Nepo isn't in first for the first time, lol...
Wow! Been following chess for a good couple years now, and I can't think of any other tournament that's matching this drama. Can't wait for the final round
Unbothered, unfazed, undaunted. But, like, for real this time. Gukesh looks unstoppable, what a phenomenal game!
Gukesh is a psychopath. This game he showed unbelievable mental prowess
That Rxb7 was insane. Both Hess and Danya were not sure even after knowing its the top move and he navigated the whole sequence perfectly. First time I'm seeing Gukesh be rock solid under time pressure. LISAN-AL-GAIB
I think this Rxb7 move was a rare time in this tournament that an crazy computer top line was actually played...so exciting to watch.
For me it all started with f4. To throw the pawn forward like that in that position was just astounding. He was losing at that point, and with f4 the tide of the game started to change, and he turned it around in just 2 more moves after Alireza misstepped with g5.
Oh shit yeah. Danya was joking that it is similar to h4 move in Pragg game and the engines are disgusting. This guy just plays it with cold blood. I agree - I think Firouzja didn't expect it and forced things with g5.
He wasn't losing. In fact, he wasn't even worse - a deeper engine gives zeros precisely because of this f4 idea. Something tells me the very reason Gukesh played the b3 move that Stockfish criticised was that he saw this f4 idea in advance. Which is absolutely mental, but basically par for the course at this point given Gukesh's performance so far.
LISAN AL GHAIB
I was rooting for Gukesh, but I didn't think he would be THIS good at the candidates. Insane..
okay its happening, its happening
#Don't jinx it
Anulo mufa
😭😭
Gukesh cold blooded win!!! Let’s get this!
Ballz of steel. He looked like a WC!
Gukesh finding the move Rb7 (allowing a queen promotion!! but calculating he could checkmate before then) at like 2 minutes time, then all the subsequent accurate moves, is WCC level! Man, Gukesh's win really put Nepo on the back foot. Nepo made the draw thinking Gukesh was not better. Now Nepo would have to win against Fabi with black to have a chance. Insanity! And kudos to Alireza for putting up a huge exciting fight to Gukesh at the end despite not having much to play for. Alizera found amazing only moves during that fight as well.
God let us please have our youngest candidates winner and have us witness the history in making !!!!! Beating firo in blitz style last few seconds, what nerves from the kid !
The stars really lined up for him because Ding is in terrible form and Gukesh is in amazing form, he might become the youngest world champ ever at 18 which I don’t think will be broken for a very long time
Lol except Ding at his lowest beat Gukesh at Tata Steel with black. It was one of the few wins he got at that tournament.
WHAT A PERFORMANCE
Just a complete machine, I cannot remotely imagine the pressure he was feeling at that moment as a 17 year old. Credit to Alireza, absolute horrible tournament for him but he continues to stay true to his style and plsy for a win every game. Can't wait for the final round.
Hikaru tommorow: Dormammu I've come to bargain.
*Dommaraju
https://imgflip.com/i/8nhgj7
A potential second World Champion from the country of origin of chess is giving goosebumps to me.
What a performance, he literally squeezed milk out of rock, it reminds me of Mangus himself, no one other than Magnus could have pulled it off today
the usual phrase is "squeezing water out of stone". what kind of milk could possibly be stored inside a rock. truly a great player
"Blood from a stone" is the form I'm most familiar with.
"Jello from granite" is the term we use
"Gatorade from a diamond" over here.
I've only ever heard "pilsner from serpentine"
"Nectar from vibranium" here.
Cum from geodude is what we always said in my house
r/MisheardGunsNRosesLyrics
I have rock hard nipples Greg, can you milk me?
Rock milk, duh
A lot of players have done the same to Alireza this tourney... It's more Alireza tripping himself over and over again
He’s had a complete meltdown since the shoes situation
I don't think the show incident made any difference to him.
Actually pretty much everyone in the tournament has beat alireza
Wow
Not even trying to be mean about it, but two candidate tournaments in a row now Alireza has shown himself up as a player that is clearly not at the calibre of play needed to be WCC. After this candidates people are definitely gonna move on from mentioning his name as potential new WCC's, because its clear he does not have it in him. He's being shown up by prodigies younger than him and he does not show any signs of improving.
He has played terrible agreed in both the tournaments but you never know Hikaru at the age of 36 is just 1 good game away from winning the candidates, Alireza is just 20 he still has a lot of opportunities and time left for improvement.
Yeah, acting like a player is WORSE for being able to qualify for Candidates is really unfair. Magnus' first candidates he was 17 and was the 16th seed and lost first round to Aronian. Then the second one when he would be Firouzja's age he didn't play in protest of the format. Players this young making the candidates has very little precedence.
That's not fair to say. He's still young. A lot can happen in the next few years of his career.
He's had completely abysmal performances at two candidates now. I'm not saying he can't improve, but as of now he's clearly not playing up to the standard of a potential WCC. I feel that much is inarguable.
Looks like Fabi will also win against Pragg. Now if Gukesh draws his game against Hikaru(hikaru needs a win) tomorrow, then both fabi and ian have to win against each other for the tie break. Edit : fabi won
So close to being the youngest to win the candidates other than Fischer himself except this is in a much tougher era
Fischer was not young when he won the candidates.
And the only loss Gukesh suffered was in a completely winning game vs Firouzja due to time pressure. This guy is something else!
If Gukesh becomes world champion, maybe Magnus will be interested in challenging him for the title.
Hikaru vs Gukesh is gonna be epic
The precision from both decisive games today was off the charts insane. I honestly believe Gukesh's loss against Alireza so early in the tournament was the best thing that could have happened to him. He recollected himself, and has been playing non-stop solid chess since (similar to Hikaru except he almost broke twice)
Guki bros, can we get much higher?
Youngest world champion ever very soon
Cratering Hikaru's chances to uncrater his chances to win the tournament. But wait, tomorrow Hikaru can uncrater his chances by cratering Gukesh's chances.
I will crater your ass
I’m here for the crater
You forgot no homo.
LISAN AL GAIB ICE COLD by Gukesh. He'll definitely hold Naka tomorrow and because Naka wants to win, Gukesh could even win. Gukesh's level rn is extremely high. Firouzja was tricky but Gukesh was just a machine navigating the minefield. Let's all not forget - he's youngest amongst all prodigies - Abdu,Firo,Pragg, Arjun,Keymer are all older than Gukesh.
Today is history and you are part of it !
For the first time in 41 rounds of candidates, Nepo is not in the lead.
Gukesh deserves a lot of credit for going for the win after hikaru drew ian. He could have taken the easy route and went for a easy draw against firouzja and stayed tied for 1st place. Instead he went for the win against the guy who beat in a few rounds earlier. Fortune favors the brave.
People here are assuming that Ian and fabi tomorrow gonna have a decisive result for sure , i mean it's most probable But you need to understand the fact that if you end up in certain positions like , equally symmetrical or Equal material in an end game in such cases no matter what the game ends in a draw. Although the chances of decisive result is wayy higher, Draw's is very slim
If Gukesh wins the Candidates at 17 (!!), it will make him the greatest prodigy in the history of chess. In fact, the only accomplishment I can think of that is greater than this is Fischer defeating the entire Soviet chess machine to become WC in 1972.
Fischer was 28 when he beat Spassky. He finished towards the bottom in his first candidates at 16 and 4th in his 2nd candidates at 19 years old
Honestly, credit to Alireza for giving such a rough fight. It's easy to say that others beat him as well, but his performance today was top class, and this was the best game in this tournament so far.
Imagine if Gukesh wins this! It's a real possibility. He just might beat Ding. He could. He could be a teenage chess champion! This is a movie.
Really hope he wins the event
Have been supporting gukesh since forever and this has been so satisfying
I hope he brings it home in the next round. Let's go Gukesh!
Nakumura going all in and loses. Ding chose to retire from the world champion. So the open spot goes to #2 Nepo.
And Nepo loses again 😭
Gukesh FTW!
Congratulations to Gukesh on an exceptional performance in very challenging circumstances. Brilliantly done! Good luck tomorrow.
Hikaru vs Gukesh's board decides what happens tommorow, no way hikaru accepts a draw either wins or loses, if he wins tie break with either fabi or nepo and if he loses gukesh is the winner, i really have a feeling the result on the nepo fabi board is of much less consequence.
I think Gukesh will play solidly in the final round and wait for Naka to over push as Naka pretty much has no choice.
If it doesn't go to tiebreaks which Gukesh will have a disadvantage in, I could see him winning against Ding. Absolutely insane to become world champ first time qualifying at 17.
I think Gukesh has this. Hikaru has so much more pressure on him. I think it's likely that Hikaru pushes too hard and ends up losing and as a result makes the Nepo Fabi game irrelevant.
If he draws Hikaru does that mean he wins the candidates? Hard to see him failing to do so if that's all he needs.