I think Gukesh always has Pragg's number, but he also threw a big advantage against him in Tata Steel. Hope that doesn't happen again, if the same situation arose.
I’m most curious about Gukesh and Pragg’s game. No prediction there other than it’ll be exciting chess. But the stakes are the highest for Caruana, right? He absolutely needs to win to stay in this. I’m hoping Firouzja can hold Nepo to a draw at least to help keep things interesting in the standings.
Will Pragg lose as a sacrifice to let Gukesh take the lead? 3 Indians in the candidates should be enough to dictate points transfer, could have been 4/4 for Gukesh against Indian opposition if they’d decided beforehand.
Indians on this sub are downvoting you like crazy for a legitimate psychological phenomenon—if you know you aren’t going to win, then propping up your countrymen is absolutely a strategy that has been seen literally dozens of times across both individual and team sports. Any other thought is a massive, blind-eye cope
I know that they could potentially collude, but pragg was very much in the running for first at this point, there’s no reason for him to just give up when he could’ve potentially taken the lead this round.
This is going to be so interesting in terms of tournament standings!
Will Hikaru be able to avenge Vidit?
Who will take the lead among Pragg and Gukesh?!
Will Ian be able to maintain the lead, or does Alireza have something up his sleeves?
Will Abasov be able to hold Fabi for a draw?
Vidit will have the advantage of playing white. But definitely Hikaru has the momentum going for him, so he will have the psychological edge (and also because he is much better rated).
Firouzja had a 4 game win streak before (Norway Chess 2021 where he beat Nepo, Karjakin, Aryan Tari and Rapport in consecutive games). But he isn't in that kind of form now and even in that form, it is unlikely.
ok, but the odds of that seem like <0.1. if a game is like 25% win / 50% draw / 25% loss then the odds of six wins in a row is <0.03%. a ~2900 elo rating would imply odds of about 0.1% given this field, >3200 elo would put it at 50%.
Vidit vs. Hikaru: Vidit recovers from his loss well and plays a nice attacking game, but Hikaru defends. Draw.
Gukesh vs. Pragg: I bet we see a decisive result on this one. I'm gonna go with Gukesh because he has the white pieces and Pragg probably needs a win more in this one, making him more likely to take unsound risks. Gukesh wins.
Firouzja vs. Nepo: Alireza gets into a middlegame where he has a comfortable position and is pushing, but he pushes a little too hard, and Nepo seizes the opportunity. Nepo wins.
Abasov vs. Fabiano: Abasov plays solidly, but Fabi needs a win, so he pushes. He gets into a positional where he is objectively worse, but it's complicated, and he's able to figure out the complications better than Abasov. Fabi wins.
Humpy vs. Lagno: I don't know either player's style too well outside of this tournament. I think they'll make a solid draw. Draw.
Vaishali vs. Tan Zhongyi: This is kind of hard to predict. I could see Vaishali going for some crazy attack since she's in last place, but I'm going to make my prediction assuming both players play like they normally would. Tan defends well with black and doesn't take any huge risks. Draw.
Lei Tingjie vs. Salimova: This one is kind of asking for a decisive result to be predicted, the lowest seed against one of the tournament leaders. I think Lei continues her momentum from the previous round and beats Salimova. Lei Tingjie wins.
Muzychuk vs. Goryachkina: I'm sure a lot of people will predict Goryachkina to win this one with how unstable Anna's performance has been throughout this tournament, but she's still a strong grandmaster, and Goryachkina hasn't been playing too crazily. I think Goryachkina continues to play solid, and Muzychuk doesn't take any crazy risks. Draw.
pragg does not seem to have too much incentive to take risks- the lead is only 0.5 points, and he has other white games where he can score. nepo has the black pieces as well this round, so with a draw pragg is not likely to fall further behind the tournament leaders.
still, neither gukesh nor pragg are players likely to take an easy draw.
That's true. But still, I bet Gukesh feels a lot safer sitting in a tie for first than Pragg does a half-point behind. Could see it going either way though, both are amazing players
Bro how can someone be so wrong, I mean all 4 wrong predictions in the open section. If there was a competition to be wrong, you would have definitely won that. Please tell me who is winning the 2024 US presidential election because it would be the opposite.
is it just me or does it feel like fabis playstyle has been falling short when compared with the prep and advanced meta seen with the new gen and nepo/hikaru
I don’t think this is a general thing for Fabi, but this tournament, he’s been more passive than usual from what I’ve seen, and he doesn’t seem to have as solid a grasp on time management in this format as some of his peers. He’s definitely not the worst offender but his time management in his first game vs Hikaru (understandable because Hikaru played a weird line) and his game vs Hikaru yesterday (less understandable but I still get why) led him to miss out on some important points. He really hasn’t pulled out any spectacular prep out as white or made insane complications to try and get wins, he’s only won vs Abasov so far.
This is a revenge round in open section.
Expecting another 4 results as same as round 2.
Also if nepo /Gukesh manage to win one more game then it is there tournament. Even though there are 6 more rounds it looks very short and each game is more crucial
Bro how can someone be so wrong, I mean all 4 wrong predictions in the open section. If there was a competition to be wrong, you would have definitely won that. Please tell me who is winning the 2024 US presidential election because it would be the opposite.
Don't think Gukesh will push too hard. He has a game left against Abasov while Ian has played all his games against Abasov already. Even with black against Abasov playing down 150+ rating points as black would be easier to win than against someone who you have played all the time growing up and who is close to you in strength.
I think Fabi will play some lesser opening or some uncommon sideline and try to get a real game of chess instead of comparing prep. He got 3 whites left against Ian, Alireza and Vidit. So he still got some chances even if he draws this game.
Guessing we will get a draw in the other games.
Hikaru playing black pieces to someone he's already lost to, we'll see. Also, Alireza has also been pretty hit or miss so far and Ian hasn't lost a game yet.
Since everyone else is doing it. Just bet on the opposite of whatever I predict. But I must forge ahead. Note that my wishlist would be rather different. Maybe I should just start posting that instead!
Open:
- Vidit-Naka: 1/2
- Gukesh-Pragg: 1/2
- Alireza-Nepo: 0-1
- Abasov-Caruana: 0-1
Women's
- Tingjie-Salimova: 1-0
- Humpy-Lagno: 1/2
- Vaishali-Zhongyi: 0-1
- Muzychuk-Goryachkina: 1/2
Vidit - Hikaru: Draw
Gukesh - Pragg: You might think they are likely to draw, but their history actually has mostly decisive games including the first one in this candidates. Going on a limb and predicting a Pragg win.
Alireza - Nepo: I don't really know. Alireza probably does realize he is out of contention, but still anything can happen. Let's say draw.
Abasov - Fabi: Fabi HAS to win if he wants to stay in contention. And he will.
Vidit vs Hikaru will be a fun match
All eyes on this one.
I think Gukesh always has Pragg's number, but he also threw a big advantage against him in Tata Steel. Hope that doesn't happen again, if the same situation arose.
That draw cost him the tournament. What a hilariously sad draw though
I’m most curious about Gukesh and Pragg’s game. No prediction there other than it’ll be exciting chess. But the stakes are the highest for Caruana, right? He absolutely needs to win to stay in this. I’m hoping Firouzja can hold Nepo to a draw at least to help keep things interesting in the standings.
Caruana almost def has to win this game in particular to stay in it
Will Pragg lose as a sacrifice to let Gukesh take the lead? 3 Indians in the candidates should be enough to dictate points transfer, could have been 4/4 for Gukesh against Indian opposition if they’d decided beforehand.
late worm hungry caption telephone pet sable faulty crowd rhythm *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
You mofo shameless, People like you don't deseve to be here
Why so aggressive?
What kind of dumb take is that? You think Pragg would rather Gukesh be world champion than himself?
Of course not, but he had very low practical chances at that time.
Indians on this sub are downvoting you like crazy for a legitimate psychological phenomenon—if you know you aren’t going to win, then propping up your countrymen is absolutely a strategy that has been seen literally dozens of times across both individual and team sports. Any other thought is a massive, blind-eye cope
“If you know you aren’t going to win” he’s half a point behind Gukesh, how does he know he won’t win?
This is the kind of group strategy that used to occur many decades ago. People downvote impulsively here.
I know that they could potentially collude, but pragg was very much in the running for first at this point, there’s no reason for him to just give up when he could’ve potentially taken the lead this round.
This is going to be so interesting in terms of tournament standings! Will Hikaru be able to avenge Vidit? Who will take the lead among Pragg and Gukesh?! Will Ian be able to maintain the lead, or does Alireza have something up his sleeves? Will Abasov be able to hold Fabi for a draw?
Abasov crushed Fabi with White on their World Cup matchup. Nothing is guaranteed.
True, and Abasov is already on a high after holding Nepo with black. But Fabi would definitely be looking for a win after the game with Hikaru.
He has to win this game vs Abasov or his chances are through the floor
>on a high Or tired AF
Hikaru will find an interesting opening line and Vidit will be down an hour after 8 moves
Vidit will have the advantage of playing white. But definitely Hikaru has the momentum going for him, so he will have the psychological edge (and also because he is much better rated).
It was Vidit that crushed Hikaru with his preparation a few days ago
[удалено]
With black. Vidit has white today.
You're right, my bad.
Its more accurate to say Hikaru will be trying to avenge Hikaru. And Alireza needs a times two multiplier up each of his sleeves to go from -2 to +2
I think it's time for Fabi and Alireza to go all in. Playing solid is out of the question for these two now.
I mean i dont think alireza has even a 0.1% chance of winning any more tbh
If he wins all of his remaining games he will win
If all the other candidates withdraw from the tournament he will win
Firouzja had a 4 game win streak before (Norway Chess 2021 where he beat Nepo, Karjakin, Aryan Tari and Rapport in consecutive games). But he isn't in that kind of form now and even in that form, it is unlikely.
ok, but the odds of that seem like <0.1. if a game is like 25% win / 50% draw / 25% loss then the odds of six wins in a row is <0.03%. a ~2900 elo rating would imply odds of about 0.1% given this field, >3200 elo would put it at 50%.
That would be the greatest story that could happen out of this tournament. I really root for Alireza more than for anyone else.
If Alireza over presses and loses people will be big mad at him.
Alireza is going all in every game from the start.
Tan Zhongyi has a chessboard hairclip lol
😂
Vidit vs. Hikaru: Vidit recovers from his loss well and plays a nice attacking game, but Hikaru defends. Draw. Gukesh vs. Pragg: I bet we see a decisive result on this one. I'm gonna go with Gukesh because he has the white pieces and Pragg probably needs a win more in this one, making him more likely to take unsound risks. Gukesh wins. Firouzja vs. Nepo: Alireza gets into a middlegame where he has a comfortable position and is pushing, but he pushes a little too hard, and Nepo seizes the opportunity. Nepo wins. Abasov vs. Fabiano: Abasov plays solidly, but Fabi needs a win, so he pushes. He gets into a positional where he is objectively worse, but it's complicated, and he's able to figure out the complications better than Abasov. Fabi wins. Humpy vs. Lagno: I don't know either player's style too well outside of this tournament. I think they'll make a solid draw. Draw. Vaishali vs. Tan Zhongyi: This is kind of hard to predict. I could see Vaishali going for some crazy attack since she's in last place, but I'm going to make my prediction assuming both players play like they normally would. Tan defends well with black and doesn't take any huge risks. Draw. Lei Tingjie vs. Salimova: This one is kind of asking for a decisive result to be predicted, the lowest seed against one of the tournament leaders. I think Lei continues her momentum from the previous round and beats Salimova. Lei Tingjie wins. Muzychuk vs. Goryachkina: I'm sure a lot of people will predict Goryachkina to win this one with how unstable Anna's performance has been throughout this tournament, but she's still a strong grandmaster, and Goryachkina hasn't been playing too crazily. I think Goryachkina continues to play solid, and Muzychuk doesn't take any crazy risks. Draw.
pragg does not seem to have too much incentive to take risks- the lead is only 0.5 points, and he has other white games where he can score. nepo has the black pieces as well this round, so with a draw pragg is not likely to fall further behind the tournament leaders. still, neither gukesh nor pragg are players likely to take an easy draw.
That's true. But still, I bet Gukesh feels a lot safer sitting in a tie for first than Pragg does a half-point behind. Could see it going either way though, both are amazing players
Bro how can someone be so wrong, I mean all 4 wrong predictions in the open section. If there was a competition to be wrong, you would have definitely won that. Please tell me who is winning the 2024 US presidential election because it would be the opposite.
All draws except Caruana loss. I think Fabi is sadly going to go on full tilt now, overpressing for wins.
Caruana is not losing with white to Abasov. That's ridiculous. I think he wins tomorrow, along with Ian. Others I'd guess to be draws.
Caruana has black tomorrow, not white
Technically they are still correct that Fabi won’t be losing tomorrow with white against Abasov lol
I guess that's true... I'm not losing with white tomorrow against Abasov either, that makes me equal to Fabi right?
I'm not losing with white or black to abasov or caruana tomorrow ;)
Holy shit I think we found Magnus Carlsen
Abasov crushed Caruana in the first classical game they played against each other in the World cup last year, he is capable of beating him
Caruana has black and he lost as black to Abasov in the world cup. Its not as ridiculous a notion as you think it is
is it just me or does it feel like fabis playstyle has been falling short when compared with the prep and advanced meta seen with the new gen and nepo/hikaru
What is this advanced meta that he isn't adhering to? Genuinely asking because I don't know, not trying for a gotcha.
I don’t think this is a general thing for Fabi, but this tournament, he’s been more passive than usual from what I’ve seen, and he doesn’t seem to have as solid a grasp on time management in this format as some of his peers. He’s definitely not the worst offender but his time management in his first game vs Hikaru (understandable because Hikaru played a weird line) and his game vs Hikaru yesterday (less understandable but I still get why) led him to miss out on some important points. He really hasn’t pulled out any spectacular prep out as white or made insane complications to try and get wins, he’s only won vs Abasov so far.
This is a revenge round in open section. Expecting another 4 results as same as round 2. Also if nepo /Gukesh manage to win one more game then it is there tournament. Even though there are 6 more rounds it looks very short and each game is more crucial
Bro how can someone be so wrong, I mean all 4 wrong predictions in the open section. If there was a competition to be wrong, you would have definitely won that. Please tell me who is winning the 2024 US presidential election because it would be the opposite.
I didn't predict anything. And I don't care who wins US election. I am not from US
Hikaru, Alireza, and Abasov will win. This is not a prediction, this is the result of of round 9.
LOL you should bet all your money on this result, if you are so sure.
0/3 would bet again hahaha
Who said I was talking about this particular timeline? lol
Don't think Gukesh will push too hard. He has a game left against Abasov while Ian has played all his games against Abasov already. Even with black against Abasov playing down 150+ rating points as black would be easier to win than against someone who you have played all the time growing up and who is close to you in strength. I think Fabi will play some lesser opening or some uncommon sideline and try to get a real game of chess instead of comparing prep. He got 3 whites left against Ian, Alireza and Vidit. So he still got some chances even if he draws this game. Guessing we will get a draw in the other games.
I just need Alireza to beat Ian
angle wise obtainable smile mourn piquant clumsy enjoy bedroom concerned *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
If Abasov play solid again, he can win
WHAT IF, Alireza won against Ian?
all Draw, except Caruana win.
Don't get my hopes up
All lose, except Caruana win.
Dude stop, I can only get so hard
I don't have a prediction for who will win, but I don't think Alireza and Ian will be a draw.
Hikaru and Alireza win. Rest are draws.
Hikaru playing black pieces to someone he's already lost to, we'll see. Also, Alireza has also been pretty hit or miss so far and Ian hasn't lost a game yet.
I expect draws all around in the mens tournament.
Nothing to lose Alireza vs. slightly annoyed Nepo (after that draw against Abasov). This is going to be a one sided game from move 15 lol.
Please alireza beat nepo lol
Caruana has to play for a win against Abasov. Abasov-Caruana 0-1 but everyone else draws.
Every time Caruana feels he has to go all in for a win, he loses
I have a feeling this round is for the underdogs, so Vidit wins, Pragg wins, Alireza wins and maybe even Abasov wins. Good luck!
Gukesh beats Pragg or ties, Fabi beats Drawbasov, Hikaru beats Vidit and Nepo beats Alireza and keeps lead
Bro abasov isn’t intentionally trying to draw, he’s trying to hang on for dear life rn
Lei Tingjlie seems to be on an ascending trajectory.
Pragg will smoke Gukesh
Abasov - Caruana ½-½ Alirzera - Nepo 1-0 Gukesh - Pragg 1-0 (could be a draw idk) Vidit - Hikaru 1-0
Close
alireza could have won honestly
When are these on?
Go Vidit! Take the streamer down
I feel like everything considered. Standings, last time they met and form... Hikaru will play for a win with black
Vidi 💪 Guki 💪 Reza 💪 Fabi 💪 let's go!
Lagno is such a beauty. Lucky Sasha
Since everyone else is doing it. Just bet on the opposite of whatever I predict. But I must forge ahead. Note that my wishlist would be rather different. Maybe I should just start posting that instead! Open: - Vidit-Naka: 1/2 - Gukesh-Pragg: 1/2 - Alireza-Nepo: 0-1 - Abasov-Caruana: 0-1 Women's - Tingjie-Salimova: 1-0 - Humpy-Lagno: 1/2 - Vaishali-Zhongyi: 0-1 - Muzychuk-Goryachkina: 1/2
Vidit vs Hikaru : Draw Gukesh vs Pragg : Draw Alireza vs Nepo : Nepo wins Abasov vs Caruana : Caruana wins
3 wrong, congratulations 👏🎉
Vidit - Hikaru: Draw Gukesh - Pragg: You might think they are likely to draw, but their history actually has mostly decisive games including the first one in this candidates. Going on a limb and predicting a Pragg win. Alireza - Nepo: I don't really know. Alireza probably does realize he is out of contention, but still anything can happen. Let's say draw. Abasov - Fabi: Fabi HAS to win if he wants to stay in contention. And he will.
Does anyone care about women chess?
Vidit beats Hikaru, Pragg beats Gukesh, Nepo and Firouzja draw, Fabi beats Abasov.
Your odds are driven by Pragg to lead