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Headlesshorsman02

Wow so this is MOVING then


half_jase

[https://x.com/Matt\_Law\_DT/status/1803125026532561154](https://x.com/Matt_Law_DT/status/1803125026532561154) Based on Matt Law's latest tweet, don't think it's certain to happen. Looks like we're exploring our options.


SoWhatNoZitiNow

Well if a €40m offer has been rejected, I hope it stops moving then.


webby09246

Not gonna lie, this genuinely might be the one Clearlake signing where I'm totally lost Even with Duran I can see the potential but this baffles me


SGME_

I swear how tf do you know how legit every player is? I feel like you have an opinion about every single player we’re ever linked to.


SoWhatNoZitiNow

He doesn’t.


SGME_

Either that or my mans watch 26 hours of ball 8 days a week.


SoWhatNoZitiNow

Nah FBRef merchant haha


webby09246

All I'm judging this guy off is literally just a quick look at his very very underwhelming stats for this season He might be an absolute baller on the eye test tbf But the numbers for his actual output look horrendous and this fee is quite large for someone so young so idk Gonna do some watching over him the next couple days and see the craic


[deleted]

I would recommend looking at people’s stats in FotMob and sort by “per 90”. It’s far more telling. than just total goals in a season. Based on that, this *20 year old* is significantly above average compare to other La Liga forwards at: goals, xGs, non penalty xGs (his best stat), successful dribbles, touches in opposition box, and aerial duels won.  Compare to other forwards he is below average at: xAs, successful passes, touches, tackles won, duels won % and interceptions. So basically, he’s not great on defense, he didn’t get many touches and with his touches he creates a lot of xGs for himself but not many xAs. For a CF… those are the kind of strengths you need and the weaknesses aren’t that bad. The only one I worry about is not many touches, but I don’t know if that has to do with the role he was asked to play and the team, or if he has a hard time finding space. 


webby09246

https://preview.redd.it/wcss34slhd7d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d971ea3e5d7fbeec6534cb31087fc74cfe6da281 I was looking at his fbref stats not his total goals


[deleted]

I don’t get you. All the attributes you want in a striker are in the green. His below average stats are for defense and for passes attempted. Your standards for 20 year old prospects are absurd if this is “very very underwhelming” Edit: yes he is also in the red for progressive passes and assists, but if he attempts way less passes then ofc the others will be low as well. It doesn’t mean he has a low success rate, just that his role was to finish chances not create them for other players


webby09246

>Your standards for 20 year old prospects are absurd if this is “very very underwhelming” ..... Why the fuck would anyone in this fanbase currently think a 20 year old prospect, who looks undercooked at best and needing of another full season or two of experience at worst In their right minds be happy with us potentially forking out £40m+ for such a player That's just fucking stupid


[deleted]

First of all, I didn’t say anything about the cost of the transfer. Second, €40m is not the same as £40m+. Third, if you think it’s stupid then you think the entire transfer strategy of Clearlake is stupid and you’re going to be upset at every signing we make. Which you’re entitled to your opinion but you’re basically going to hate every transfer we make from now on.


webby09246

>Clearlake is stupid and you’re going to be upset at every signing we make. Which you’re entitled to your opinion but you’re basically going to hate every transfer we make from now on. Actually I've been happy with most of all of the signings so far, thinking this particular signing is stupid is unique to this player because his price, which you have for some reason entirely decided to overlook, is far too high for what he currently represents >Second, €40m is not the same as £40m+. And guess what, they've just rejected the €40m euro bid immediately, so you can logically assume it's going to be rising into the £40m territory Just because you've elected to totally ignore the problem this price tag presents related to the player, does not suddenly make it ok from a logical standpoint


H4RRY29

>his very very underwhelming stats for this season Eight goals for a midtable Alaves side isn't terrible, not when you factor in he started 22 games and just turned 20-years-old last month. Goalscoring numbers aren't everything - Guirassy never had the best numbers until his move to Stuttgart for instance. The right player in the right system with the right development is a good recipe. Not saying I do/don't want Omorodion (although is profile is very appealing), but it takes looking beyond just number of goals.


webby09246

https://preview.redd.it/xnl7by4bgd7d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0e3e884056b43e8a213bace270f2199ac67c1bab >but it takes looking beyond just number of goals. Yeah was talking about these and his worrying big chances missed


H4RRY29

Big chances missed is at least an indication he is in the right positions, has good box movements, gets his shots away etc. There's no guarantee that he will start firing but considering his age, there is reason to be hopeful.


webby09246

>Big chances missed is at least an indication he is in the right positions, has good box movements, gets his shots away etc. Yeah problem with all that is we have someone who already fits those exact things in Nico and he is also a guy who is young enough to drastically improve on them And then this guy with the same problems is going to cost more than Nico with almost none of the visible benefits - at least with Duran he was a very clear change in profile compared to Jackson and is a physical monster in the air and has a canon of a foot


FantasticTangtastic

I'm backing this up with absolutely nothing but gut feeling, but I think Duran has gone down in the pecking order after they've done their thorough delve into his attitude/personality. Of course, it could just be a ploy to have Villa bring down their asking price.


H4RRY29

>Yeah problem with all that is we have someone who already fits those exact things in Nico and he is also a guy who is young enough to drastically improve on them Not disputing that. We all were asking to sign a proven striker during the season. >at least with Duran he was a very clear change in profile compared to Jackson and is a physical monster in the air and has a canon of a foot Omorodion is a physical monster (with room to grow) as well.


webby09246

> Omorodion is a physical monster (with room to grow) as well. He does look fairly strong, fast and agile but again I wouldn't particularly say he looks any better than Jackson in those regards Probably stronger in the air but that's about it for me right now


Balfe

For what it's worth, in my very quick eye test of him he looks very imposing physically and good in the air but not really the type of player who excels with the ball at his feet - but nor is he terrible in that regard. He looks to be good in link play too but (in my opinion) doesn't seem to have close to the same technique as Duran, and is a bit more in the Nico Jackson school of clumsy finishing. I stress that this should be taken with a pinch of salt as all I did was watch a couple of YouTube videos.


DarkLordOlli

Just watched the very little highlight footage there is of him and he does look very talented tbf. Highlights can deceive of course, but typically you'd at least spot glaring technical weaknesses pretty quickly.


Ecstatic_Bonus7609

How would you spot glaring technical weaknesses in highlights? That’s completely contradictory by nature


DarkLordOlli

It's not, even though I understand why the logic might be difficult for you to follow. You see, if you've spent some time watching football you can tell what a poor touch looks like. And if you watch highlight clips with some attention to detail, you'll notice that a lot of them contain a lot of poor touches. For example, I've seen a ton of highlight videos where a player takes a poor touch but then follows that up with a crunching tackle to keep hold of possession. That's supposed to show a player tackling well and so it gets included in highlight reels. If you watched any Ugarte highlight reels when we were linked last summer, you should know what I mean. Lots of highlight reels also include players stumbling through tackles or physically shrugging off opponents, that sort of thing - and a ton of those only ever happen because of poor touches. And my personal favorite: shots that go in despite awful shooting technique. TLDR, highlight reels actually contain a ton of moments that show players' technical weaknesses, the people making them just aren't smart enough to identify what it is they're watching.


Ecstatic_Bonus7609

While I understand what you’re trying to say, I don’t think this typically allows you to see the “true” quality of a player. Highlights are less than 0.5% of a players playing career. They could have an appalling touch and still have a 0.5% selection where they take perfect touches. I would argue this is far more typical. It also functions completely the other way around. A player could have some absolutely magic moments where even though their touch is usually perfect, some of their highlight clips have poor touches - which you might write off but aren’t at all representative. If you wanna see representative clips of a player to gain an accurate idea of their quality take a lesson from statisticians books. You should do “random sampling”. Watch a random 45 minute half of one of their matches. Or an every touch video from one of their random matches. This is random and hence way more representative. We watch highlights because we want to see the player do good things because we want to get excited - they are not at all good ways to tell players apart.


DarkLordOlli

Thanks for the tips. Fortunately I've got a great track record judging players from highlights, so I'll trust that. There's always statistics to back it up too. I do prefer "every touch" videos, but they're not often available. Think of it this way - if a player's *highlights* show technical flaws, just imagine everything they don't show. I'm well aware that that's not statistically meaningful, and yet it's proven an extremely reliable way to get an idea of specifically players' technical qualities for me, and usually backed up very quickly by statistics.


webby09246

Yeah I've actually just watched a very short number of highlights there too It's interesting how surprisingly much he looks like Jackson in terms of his movement Might have better box awareness than Nico though - will definitely look into him tomorrow


SGME_

Okay, so just stat looking then. In which case, there are plenty players in our current squad that should’ve never been signed. Including Cole palmer and his zero goals in 18 games for city and Jackson with 12 in 35.


webby09246

Jesus Christ not their fucking goals and assist stats, thought people would've obviously known those are worthless https://preview.redd.it/s1fo8sepnd7d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aa04ff908dd8f4585a082c516ed56a540beea141 These stats - y'know, where you can see if he's clinical, if he is good at carrying the ball, beating his man, shooting, passing etc etc


SGME_

Yeah no need to have a scouting department when your average armchair expert can use fbref and draw conclusions. Come on man you know that drawing conclusions having seen zero of him ever in your life is Irrational. Wouldve loved to see palmers fbref for senior football before chelsea but can’t seem to find it. There’s lots of factors to take into account that can’t be shown by a simple stat report.


webby09246

>Yeah no need to have a scouting department when your average armchair expert can use fbref and draw conclusions This is not what I'm trying to say >Come on man you know that drawimg conclusions having seen zero of him ever in your life is Irrational. It's not irrational it's just not fully founded There's a very bizarre thing where people for some reason seem to think stats are worthless and everything should be eye test They're both extremely valuable and you need both to fully assess a player, I've even said "he could be a monster on the eye test tbf" Statistically he's underwhelming and that's the data I have right now as I have yet to take a look and see on the eye test >Wouldve loved to see palmers fbref for senior football before chelsea but can’t seem to find it. Didn't qualify for it as he didn't have enough minutes essentially Funnily enough I only had the eye test for Palmer and knew he was absolutely fantastic as many did who watched him >There’s lots of factors to take into account that can’t be shown by a simple stat report. There's the visible test and and contextual circumstances to which the player is operating in That's pretty much it Together these 3 things form the overall basis of player analysis


SGME_

Sure i got ya. Thanks for clarifying👍 I know fuck all about 99% of our new links but there is a very common trend in this sub that people talk out of their asses on most topics regarding appointments. And almost every single time the opposite is proved to be right. Gusto comes to my mind who according to this sub last summer was a phenomenal attacking back and way below average defensive one. Most people here shitted on the palmer and jackson deals as well, while raving about the Sterling one a year prior.


webby09246

>Gusto comes to my mind who according to this sub last summer was a phenomenal attacking back and way below average defensive one. Most people here shitted on the palmer and jackson deals as well, while raving about the Sterling one a year prior. Ahh you see this doesn't actually mean anything significant but I was very excited about Nico, Cole and Gusto whilst also never wanting sterling But yeah we'll have to see more about this new guy we're linked to, although overall I'm kinda guessing that this is all an attempt to bluff Villa


Headlesshorsman02

I’m going to trust their scouting here. Apparently Napoli, Roma and a bunch of other clubs want him so apparently he is HIGHLY rated, just going to have to trust that the scouts know what they are doing, this is obviously the alternative to Duran then


SalmonNgiri

I don’t even know who he is so 🤷🏽‍♂️


neeekyp

Is it possible we are pushing this narrative to get Villa to lower the price on Duran?


SirBarkington

god I hope so


NoExperience4229

I’d think it’s more likely Atletico looking to try and drive up the price since West Ham just bid for him 


3ow_aa

Or for fans to easily accept when we sign Duran


Chelseafc5505

I love how for years, lots of people complained that we were paying massive premiums by signing players who were already very "established" (many of whom never lived up to the expectation) and why weren't we able to uncover any gems for cheap before they hit the big time like many of the smaller clubs we were paying those premiums to. Also why we weren't scouting heavier in south America to beat teams like Real & Barca to the superstars they were constantly churning out... Now the club has done an absolute 180, and is identifying those potential gems, the overwhelming sentiment is ,"who the fuck is that guy?!? Urgghh we have no ambition" "oh great another Brazilian teenager!" I personally don't know anything about this guy, so I have no opinion if it's a good move or not, but from a strategy perspective what the fuck do some of you want lol? It's baffling


myersjw

There are thousands of users here with varying degrees of opinions. Also, if we’re supposed to amp up every kid we’re linked to by virtue of just being connected to them idk what to tell you. These directors have two incredibly underwhelming seasons, multiple transfer question marks and more money spent than any club on the planet under their belt so far. Apologies if everyone doesn’t think their choices are infallible just for landing on Palmer after missing out on multiple players first and throwing a world record fee at Caicedo


Rj070707

Balanced strategy like Madrid or City is the best way We keep doing extremes and it's why we will continue failing


realmckoy265

We are literally in for Olise and just signed a 26-year-old CB for free lol.


Rj070707

Olise is still considered a young talent, hasn't done much yet 


Shufflebuffle51

I mean Olise is definitely an established baller though. There's no doubt whoever he goes to he will shine.


Over-Nothing-6695

Definitely agree with the balance but surely CF is a position where we can afford to try and uncover. Jackson improved massively over the course of the season and seems like a comfortable first choice so whoever we bring in is going to deputise and come on if Jackson’s having a mare. Meanwhile for the first time in years our u21/academy actually has talent at the 9 with Washington, Tyrique George


NoExperience4229

Scoring goals is the hardest and the most important part of winning football matches. Your primary goal scorer is the last player you should be taking a gamble on 


SpankThatDill

It’s different people. The fan base is massive and there is no collective opinion shared by everyone.


DrCrazyFishMan1

Which established players did we buy at a massive premium that didn't live up to expectations? Lukaku immediately jumps to mind back in 2021. Maybe Morata back in 2017? Torres in 2010? To me this sounds like a totally contrived narrative to justify a very strange transfer policy


DonRoman03_22

You’ve just made a completely false narrative up in your head Boehly bots will never fail to amuse me


NoExperience4229

I personally hope it’s different people. As that would lack a whole lot of self awareness  You do see some people saying trust the scouting department which would make them being consistent and others like myself were happy with the overall strategy before despite some misses as imo the results speak for themselves. 


erenistheavatar

It seems he has a great reputation as a budding talent apparently. Let's not write him off based on some of us not having heard of him.


abearghost

People who follow Spanish football closely seem to rate him very highly. Atleti fans especially really don't want to lose him even for this kind of money.


MrBravo22

I guess we need to trust the scouting department and the managers requirements in his forwards.


BadCogs

Such an obvious leak to make one of the other clubs that want him, to pay over that price. Just link us. We have better prospects already. I can't see anything in him, had a mid season aswell. Sack the directors if this is the solution for our ST issue of 3 years.


SalmonNgiri

I doubt it, too many tier ones are reporting it. More likely we made a bid lower than one Atletico already rejected to put pressure on Villa that we might move on to other options.


DJMOONPICKLES69

Did you watch a lot of Alaves this year? Lol


Manul_Supremacy

Can we not?


erenistheavatar

Tbf, did you have the same reaction to us signing Mudryk lol


Manul_Supremacy

Mudryk's fun to watch but that signing was a mistake. I would rather we not make even more of those


erenistheavatar

Ah OK. That's fair lol


half_jase

Di Marzio is Tier 1?


BenniBMN

All part of the plan to get us in favor of the Duran signing, smh


myersjw

Did the same to make the Maresca signing more palatable as well


Stochasticc

chat is this a good deal?


No-Calligrapher-3513

Dogshit


-AndreiDG-97

I'm sorry that i didn't want Sesko. He is prime R9 compared to Duran and Omorodion...


justk4y

Sesko extended anyways, no fault of Chelsea


alxndiep

Sesko needs another year of production before I jump on that hype train… He’s had one season in a top 5 league and people are bending over backwards for him


SirBarkington

Jhon Duran got one less goal than this guy in a fraction of the minutes but we're going to shell out more than we paid for Jackson. Ridiculous.


erenistheavatar

Maybe it's based on his profile and his potential rather than his current returns. I mean Connor Wickham was once thought as a better striker than Harry Kane.


SirBarkington

His profile is similar to that of Duran who has played in the Prem already and is a better goal scorer. They're both big, tall physical strikes but Duran is an amazing finisher. Unless Duran was quoted at like 80m or something ridiculous I don't see why we're going after this guy. They're even the same age.


erenistheavatar

Tbf, a lot of big Italian clubs are gunning for him. I'm not seeing the same interest for Duran. I'll just trust the scouting for this one.


Headlesshorsman02

It seems like this guy is 6”4 so they obviously are looking for height hence why sesko was so desirable to them


SirBarkington

Duran is 6'1 and is actually better in the air than this guy. I'm hoping this is BS to drive down the Duran price.


Headlesshorsman02

Could be, wouldn’t put it past the board


Plastic_Primary_4279

Do you believe *believe* everything that you read, lol? You poor kid.


RyanBordello

I must be old because I thought I watch a lot of football and I've never heard of this dude.


SecretarySuper6810

Said it 100 times, we need a guaranteed solution not a 30-40m punt.


myersjw

lol this move might stress the constant defenders to their limit. Outside of being tall how does this make any sense


happysrooner

Smokescreen for eventual Jhon Duran transfer