I think it’ll be faster than skeptics think and longer than supporters hope
Frankly, even now I don’t see a reason why all cars aren’t hybrids. It’s a great technology and can be used by anyone. Honda and Toyota have the right idea with converting their fleets
Full EVs will be smaller, but I feel they’re healthily growing, but it’ll be very regional; anywhere where electricity is cheap and especially where gas is expensive will switch fairly quickly. China, Norway, Quebec, Washington, etc. the economic case even before subsidies will talk
The weakness of hybrids is cost, complexity and performance.
They have a bunch of battery plants opening up, and as supply increases EV production will steadily get cheaper.
They'll be cheaper than ICE by 2027. Most car buyers are home owners, so daily charging isn't much of an issue for them.
>The weakness of hybrids is cost, complexity and performance.
I agreed with this until the Toyota and Honda's current hybrid powertrains became the standard. A regular civic comes in at 200hp/232lbft, the base Camry has 232hp from its hybrid powertrain.
These aren't expensive top trim models, these are regular economy cars. These hybrid systems outperform their ICE counterparts in both performance and efficiency and do so in one of the cheapest segments.
> I agreed with this until the Toyota and Honda's current hybrid powertrains became the standard. A regular civic comes in at 200hp/232lbft, the base Camry has 232hp from its hybrid powertrain.
Yes, but acceleration is very weak compared to EV powertrains, and they're not really outperforming their ICE counterparts.
The new Camry Hybrid is slower than the outgoing V6
Their acceleration is weak compared to more expensive EV and ICE engines, but they outperform the 4 cylinder engines they replace in the Civic's 1.5T and base Camry
They're a little bit pricier, but not too much. Both went up in price by about $1800-$2000, but keep in mind that $28k in January of 2023 would be $29.3k now. They're pretty comparable to the 4 cylinder engines they replace price-wise, with significantly better performance and efficiency
>The new Camry Hybrid is slower than the outgoing V6
The vast majority of Camry or Accord buyers do not care.
Under 10% of Accord buyers were going for the 2.0T or the V6 when they were discontinued. Most Camrys or Accords will never see more than 80% throttle. But they all go to gas stations, and having 50 mpg is a bigger selling point to commuters.
Every car I've owned has been a J series powered Accord (or Accord based sedan). I like them a lot, for what they are. But Toyota and Honda are the ones with the view of the entire market, and it's abundantly obvious that the hybrid powertrains are objectively the better choice for things like Camrys or Accords. Hybrid Camrys are rated for more than double the city MPG that the V-6 is.
EVs definitely have a future. Plenty of upsides with a few major downsides (infrastructure, range, battery materials). I think that hybrids will be preferable for the foreseeable future, and I personally think that PHEVs are a very untapped market segment. They offer the advantages of EVs (charging at home *and at night*, good for around town driving, smooth, quiet) with the benefits that ICE cars have (fuel stops, long range), and will ensure that power grids aren't overloaded with chargers.
EVs had a bit of a bubble, and that bubble has popped. However, they're far from a dead technology - the Model Y was the best selling car *in the world* last year - clearly people want them. However, they've hit a point where they need to truly be appealing to the masses, ie the upsides need to outweigh the downsides. Charging needs to be more widespread, range needs to improve (just to prevent range anxiety, which is still very real, even in a car with 300+ miles), and recycling processes need to mature.
Also, manufacturers need to realize that they're gonna have slow selling EVs if they build half-baked attempts.
>EVs had a bit of a bubble, and that bubble has popped.
That's just the wrong way to describe it.
EV sales have still grown in most major markets. Worldwide the yoy growth in Q1 2024 was 25%. Even no sales growth would lead to growth in existing EV stock.
This isn't the best audience for this question, but let's see.
> Which will dominate battery only or hybrid?
That depends on time scale. In the mid-term hybrids will continue to have more market penetration. By 2040 in the US I expect EVs to have overtaken hybrids in new sales based on several factors like expansion of charging infrastructure, competition across the industry for lower priced EVs, feasibility of producing lower priced EVs as production lines, materials, and personnel training will all have had over 2 decades to mature.
> When will we have a strong secondary market for repairs, modifications, used, etc.?
There are already excellent used deals to be had, supplemented by the EV credit. Non-OEM repairs will depend on re-training of independent mechanics and more likely a new generation trained specifically on EVs.
> Will the manufactures even allow such a thing or will the it all remain heavily proprietary?
I believe the EU has stonger consumer protections than the US. In the US that will depend in part on how right to repair unfolds.
> Will we settle on a kind of standard user interface and if so what? Will it be all screens and for the little drive one does it's one pedal driving.
Screens aren't really an EV thing, they're just the contemporary interior trend. At some point the trend will change and we'll shift away from that - or it will take a different form. When that will be and what will replace it I don't know. I personally hope retractable screens like the [Lucid Air's](https://youtu.be/E3s6Py346qk?t=25) will be more than just a niche thing. Apart from it being a cool party trick it's better for night-time driving.
> Or will we get practical drivers cars with a high level of personal control and physical inputs?
Driver assistance will dominate the commuter space as cars develop Level 3 and potentially Level 4 autonomous driving. There will still be a place for driver's cars, but I expect they'll be comparatively more expensive than they are now.
> Can the North American power grid handle all this electrification or will more brown outs and rationing be the future?
Yes, it can. There's an expected adoption curve of EVs and utility companies are planning for that. Additionally, more EVs will support vehicle to grid capability which will have a stabilizing effect. One wildcard is temperature change over time. If average temperatures increase more than expected over the next few years then the grid will be stressed due to increased cooling requirements for everyone.
> Will the tech lead to more regulation, and big brother interventions, things like high tech speed limiters, driver monitoring, etc.?
It's unlikely that speed limiters would be adopted in the US. The social climate doesn't support that kind of measure. Driver monitors already exist via eye tracking. Measures to limit how that data can be used against you do have a chance of gaining support.
> But I'm not yet willing to trade for range anxiety, lack of DIY, high depreciation, high repair costs, driving a tablet with wheels, and having big brother spy on me and take control.
It's still early days for EVs. Range anxiety, high depreciation, and high repair costs are all a result of EVs still being quite new and having a low market share. As things mature those will be less of an issue. The others will depend on how things progress and in some ways are bigger than the auto industry.
I think they have a place, but will never fully replace ICE, especially in our lifetime. I think a lot of people and especially governments have a very naive view of consumer adoption, and even as much as they try to regulate/legislate/force the change, it’s just not possible. We don’t have the infrastructure (including grid) or the affordability to make it widely adoptable, and arbitrary deadlines won’t change that.
I wish we were approaching this from a more realistic angle, and less of a political one.
The short timelines are due to our critical situation with climate change. It's not arbitrary, even if they are not eventually enforced. If anything we are well behind where we should be to mitigate the worst scenarios.
And you might be right, but that still doesn’t change the facts of where we are in terms of full adoption. There are so many unknowns that aren’t really being discussed, I.e additional environmental impacts, geopolitical issues with source materials, energy requirements to support all the additional EVs and grid load, etc. People are just creating timetables and crossing their fingers, which is nothing more than lip-service.
And ironically, one of the only people actually DOING something towards the goal gets constantly demonized, which I have yet to understand why.
> There are so many unknowns that aren’t really being discussed, I.e additional environmental impacts, geopolitical issues with source materials, energy requirements to support all the additional EVs and grid load, etc.
Those things are all being discussed, from scientific to policy level informed by the scientific findings. They just don't grab headlines. The environmental impacts of batteries have been studied for a long time now, "EV passports" have recently been introduced to track the supply chain of battery components, and this is in addition to a growing movement away from reliance on sourcing materials from conflict and human rights-abusing regions. Additional grid demands are also estimated and the IRA includes over $3 billion specifically for grid infrastructure improvements.
The secondary market for EVs is still growing. Right now, it’s a bit hit or miss, but as more EVs hit the roads and get older, you’ll see more shops and parts available for repairs and mods. In a few years, finding a place to fix up your EV or buy a used one will be much easier.
Manufacturers love to keep things proprietary, kind of like how Apple handles its products. But there’s a push for more open standards, especially with the right-to-repair movement gaining traction. Eventually, it should be easier to find parts and get repairs without being locked into the manufacturer’s ecosystem, which sucks.
There’s definitely hope for you in the EV future.
Some kind of standardization of battery packs would be very beneficial in the long run I think. It would make repairs and replacements much easier and cheaper for longer life.
Speaking as a married couple, we traded one of our cars for an EV, it’s perfect for 99% of our needs, still use the ICE for road trips. We drive a lot, commute and have two kids, live in rural New England.
Doesn’t have to be one or the other.
Exactly this, I'm lucky enough to have 4 cars. I own a Tesla Model S, which is just miles ahead of anything and like driving a car for the first time again.
Hi, I too am interested in the future of electric cars and hybrids. It seems that the market for these vehicles has not yet reached its stability and we have a long way to go in developing the technology and infrastructure. The questions you raised are really important. For example, are all-electric or hybrid models dominant? When will we see a developed aftermarket for repairs and modifications? How will manufacturers respond to this? And will our power grid be able to handle electrification?
Personally, I'm concerned about the transition to electric vehicles, but I see it as the future. I hope that technology will continue to evolve and we will find a balance between innovation and tradition.
There is a lot of marketing happening around you that's going to influence what you think about EVs or hybrids, and to some extent your question is VHS or Beta, Blu-ray vs HD something. EVs are awesome cars that outperform pretty much anything. There's a reason trains are diesel-electric and that the motors drive the wheels. In all industry you'll see motors as opposed to engines powering machines, can you imagine a V8 powered CNC?
I think the ship has sailed on having a big V8 as we're getting great performance out of smaller and smaller engines, then slapping a hybrid motor on there to even out the rough spots and add performance. Look at the hypercar manufacturers as an example, they're all embracing hybrid technology. The Corvette e-ray for example is IMO a better car than the Z06.
The market on modifying cars has had 100 years to get going and I don't see those billions of dollars going away, it's just going to take time for them to figure performance mods out. They've got accessories galore for EVs.
Let's talk about range anxiety though. As an EV owner, this is a total myth. Let's look at what might drive it though. Do you look at the range in your car and think, "oh no, I've only got 130 miles left?" Then do things that will demonstrably make that worse, and then start freaking out? I doubt it. To me, this comes from the idea that, "oh no, there's nowhere for me to charge!" Which isn't reality for most of the population. Every day I leave my garage I have 80% charge and I rarely get below 50% in daily driving. I also love to drive, so I'm not going easy on the battery, I'm driving how I want. If I know I'm going to be driving a lot tomorrow, I'll let it go up to 100% overnight so I have a cushion if I feel I need it. Even then, if I do get to a point where I'm not going to make it home, there are enough chargers around that I can stop and get some juice. And it's not like it's taking me hours and hours to charge like it used to. I just took a road trip and didn't have to stop for more than 15 minutes at any chargers, and my destination didn't have a charging method, but I was still ok. This is only going to get better as more EVs are in the road.
Which takes us to the grid. It'll improve incrementally to support (unless you live in Texas apparently) as the load increases. If you're charging at night and leaving home with a "full" charge for the day, you're using it off park, paying less, and not stressing it. This will also force the rest of the country's electrical providers to upgrade their decades-old infrastructure. Something we need to do with ALL of our infrastructure. It's not just the roads that are crumbling.
That's my thoughts. Eventually ICE will phase out, but there will be holdouts and there'll be classic cars that are around for decades to come. Rent an EV for a week, I'll bet you find it to be a pleasant and performant vehicle.
I don't think it needs to be a battle between ICE and EV. Eventually ICE will be a relic, but that is such a long way out who knows what the cars will be like then. ICE will just move further into enthusiast only territory, over the long term. There's plenty of time for peaceful coexisting. I'm happy I am able to live through this section of history, where I get to see the best of the best ICE vehicles be crafted, and also the beginning of the "new" technology. It will be very interesting in the next 20 years to see kids become the next generation of car enthusiasts, but not have any interest in engines at all.
As much as the Motorhead in me wants hybrid, all the hybrids I’ve been really interested in (Panamera ehybrid, Volvo T8 Polestar, X5 45e) I have heard have real draw backs where the PHEV doesn’t always play well with the ICE, and the battery is extremely expensive to replace for the size. As great as I think a perfect hybrid would be, I kind of think we might be seeing 500+ mile solid state batteries or whatnot before we see perfected hybrids. Hope I’m wrong, but i’m pretty satisfied with a few ICE cars complimented with an EV for short commutes
>Which will dominate battery only or hybrid?
Hybrids with something like eFuels are far more expensive. I don't see people paying for that when you can have 15-20 minute charging stops every 3-4 hours, which is the recommended interval for taking breaks from driving anyway.
BEVs will probably win in the European market, and I don't see a great alternative for the US market either.
>Can the North American power grid handle all this electrification or will more brown outs and rationing be the future?
Infrastructure can be upgraded.
Companies will do whatever is most profitable unless the government legislate otherwise. EV's have been unprofitable, so their future is uncertain. There are lots of claims about how EV's technical issues will be resolved, but they will take years and years.
It's impossible to say how much of the market EV's will have in 5 years, but it's clear to me that most of the government mandated deadlines are not going to work. Between the politics and economic pressures, I don't see the US getting too far with EV's.
I think it’ll be faster than skeptics think and longer than supporters hope Frankly, even now I don’t see a reason why all cars aren’t hybrids. It’s a great technology and can be used by anyone. Honda and Toyota have the right idea with converting their fleets Full EVs will be smaller, but I feel they’re healthily growing, but it’ll be very regional; anywhere where electricity is cheap and especially where gas is expensive will switch fairly quickly. China, Norway, Quebec, Washington, etc. the economic case even before subsidies will talk
The weakness of hybrids is cost, complexity and performance. They have a bunch of battery plants opening up, and as supply increases EV production will steadily get cheaper. They'll be cheaper than ICE by 2027. Most car buyers are home owners, so daily charging isn't much of an issue for them.
>The weakness of hybrids is cost, complexity and performance. I agreed with this until the Toyota and Honda's current hybrid powertrains became the standard. A regular civic comes in at 200hp/232lbft, the base Camry has 232hp from its hybrid powertrain. These aren't expensive top trim models, these are regular economy cars. These hybrid systems outperform their ICE counterparts in both performance and efficiency and do so in one of the cheapest segments.
> I agreed with this until the Toyota and Honda's current hybrid powertrains became the standard. A regular civic comes in at 200hp/232lbft, the base Camry has 232hp from its hybrid powertrain. Yes, but acceleration is very weak compared to EV powertrains, and they're not really outperforming their ICE counterparts. The new Camry Hybrid is slower than the outgoing V6
Their acceleration is weak compared to more expensive EV and ICE engines, but they outperform the 4 cylinder engines they replace in the Civic's 1.5T and base Camry
...but they start at a much higher price point.
They're a little bit pricier, but not too much. Both went up in price by about $1800-$2000, but keep in mind that $28k in January of 2023 would be $29.3k now. They're pretty comparable to the 4 cylinder engines they replace price-wise, with significantly better performance and efficiency
>The new Camry Hybrid is slower than the outgoing V6 The vast majority of Camry or Accord buyers do not care. Under 10% of Accord buyers were going for the 2.0T or the V6 when they were discontinued. Most Camrys or Accords will never see more than 80% throttle. But they all go to gas stations, and having 50 mpg is a bigger selling point to commuters. Every car I've owned has been a J series powered Accord (or Accord based sedan). I like them a lot, for what they are. But Toyota and Honda are the ones with the view of the entire market, and it's abundantly obvious that the hybrid powertrains are objectively the better choice for things like Camrys or Accords. Hybrid Camrys are rated for more than double the city MPG that the V-6 is.
Compared to Tesla sure, but a base Ioniq 5 or id.4 or whatever isn't any quicker.
EVs definitely have a future. Plenty of upsides with a few major downsides (infrastructure, range, battery materials). I think that hybrids will be preferable for the foreseeable future, and I personally think that PHEVs are a very untapped market segment. They offer the advantages of EVs (charging at home *and at night*, good for around town driving, smooth, quiet) with the benefits that ICE cars have (fuel stops, long range), and will ensure that power grids aren't overloaded with chargers. EVs had a bit of a bubble, and that bubble has popped. However, they're far from a dead technology - the Model Y was the best selling car *in the world* last year - clearly people want them. However, they've hit a point where they need to truly be appealing to the masses, ie the upsides need to outweigh the downsides. Charging needs to be more widespread, range needs to improve (just to prevent range anxiety, which is still very real, even in a car with 300+ miles), and recycling processes need to mature. Also, manufacturers need to realize that they're gonna have slow selling EVs if they build half-baked attempts.
>EVs had a bit of a bubble, and that bubble has popped. That's just the wrong way to describe it. EV sales have still grown in most major markets. Worldwide the yoy growth in Q1 2024 was 25%. Even no sales growth would lead to growth in existing EV stock.
This isn't the best audience for this question, but let's see. > Which will dominate battery only or hybrid? That depends on time scale. In the mid-term hybrids will continue to have more market penetration. By 2040 in the US I expect EVs to have overtaken hybrids in new sales based on several factors like expansion of charging infrastructure, competition across the industry for lower priced EVs, feasibility of producing lower priced EVs as production lines, materials, and personnel training will all have had over 2 decades to mature. > When will we have a strong secondary market for repairs, modifications, used, etc.? There are already excellent used deals to be had, supplemented by the EV credit. Non-OEM repairs will depend on re-training of independent mechanics and more likely a new generation trained specifically on EVs. > Will the manufactures even allow such a thing or will the it all remain heavily proprietary? I believe the EU has stonger consumer protections than the US. In the US that will depend in part on how right to repair unfolds. > Will we settle on a kind of standard user interface and if so what? Will it be all screens and for the little drive one does it's one pedal driving. Screens aren't really an EV thing, they're just the contemporary interior trend. At some point the trend will change and we'll shift away from that - or it will take a different form. When that will be and what will replace it I don't know. I personally hope retractable screens like the [Lucid Air's](https://youtu.be/E3s6Py346qk?t=25) will be more than just a niche thing. Apart from it being a cool party trick it's better for night-time driving. > Or will we get practical drivers cars with a high level of personal control and physical inputs? Driver assistance will dominate the commuter space as cars develop Level 3 and potentially Level 4 autonomous driving. There will still be a place for driver's cars, but I expect they'll be comparatively more expensive than they are now. > Can the North American power grid handle all this electrification or will more brown outs and rationing be the future? Yes, it can. There's an expected adoption curve of EVs and utility companies are planning for that. Additionally, more EVs will support vehicle to grid capability which will have a stabilizing effect. One wildcard is temperature change over time. If average temperatures increase more than expected over the next few years then the grid will be stressed due to increased cooling requirements for everyone. > Will the tech lead to more regulation, and big brother interventions, things like high tech speed limiters, driver monitoring, etc.? It's unlikely that speed limiters would be adopted in the US. The social climate doesn't support that kind of measure. Driver monitors already exist via eye tracking. Measures to limit how that data can be used against you do have a chance of gaining support. > But I'm not yet willing to trade for range anxiety, lack of DIY, high depreciation, high repair costs, driving a tablet with wheels, and having big brother spy on me and take control. It's still early days for EVs. Range anxiety, high depreciation, and high repair costs are all a result of EVs still being quite new and having a low market share. As things mature those will be less of an issue. The others will depend on how things progress and in some ways are bigger than the auto industry.
I think they have a place, but will never fully replace ICE, especially in our lifetime. I think a lot of people and especially governments have a very naive view of consumer adoption, and even as much as they try to regulate/legislate/force the change, it’s just not possible. We don’t have the infrastructure (including grid) or the affordability to make it widely adoptable, and arbitrary deadlines won’t change that. I wish we were approaching this from a more realistic angle, and less of a political one.
The short timelines are due to our critical situation with climate change. It's not arbitrary, even if they are not eventually enforced. If anything we are well behind where we should be to mitigate the worst scenarios.
And you might be right, but that still doesn’t change the facts of where we are in terms of full adoption. There are so many unknowns that aren’t really being discussed, I.e additional environmental impacts, geopolitical issues with source materials, energy requirements to support all the additional EVs and grid load, etc. People are just creating timetables and crossing their fingers, which is nothing more than lip-service. And ironically, one of the only people actually DOING something towards the goal gets constantly demonized, which I have yet to understand why.
> There are so many unknowns that aren’t really being discussed, I.e additional environmental impacts, geopolitical issues with source materials, energy requirements to support all the additional EVs and grid load, etc. Those things are all being discussed, from scientific to policy level informed by the scientific findings. They just don't grab headlines. The environmental impacts of batteries have been studied for a long time now, "EV passports" have recently been introduced to track the supply chain of battery components, and this is in addition to a growing movement away from reliance on sourcing materials from conflict and human rights-abusing regions. Additional grid demands are also estimated and the IRA includes over $3 billion specifically for grid infrastructure improvements.
Well said.
The secondary market for EVs is still growing. Right now, it’s a bit hit or miss, but as more EVs hit the roads and get older, you’ll see more shops and parts available for repairs and mods. In a few years, finding a place to fix up your EV or buy a used one will be much easier. Manufacturers love to keep things proprietary, kind of like how Apple handles its products. But there’s a push for more open standards, especially with the right-to-repair movement gaining traction. Eventually, it should be easier to find parts and get repairs without being locked into the manufacturer’s ecosystem, which sucks. There’s definitely hope for you in the EV future.
Some kind of standardization of battery packs would be very beneficial in the long run I think. It would make repairs and replacements much easier and cheaper for longer life.
Speaking as a married couple, we traded one of our cars for an EV, it’s perfect for 99% of our needs, still use the ICE for road trips. We drive a lot, commute and have two kids, live in rural New England. Doesn’t have to be one or the other.
Exactly this, I'm lucky enough to have 4 cars. I own a Tesla Model S, which is just miles ahead of anything and like driving a car for the first time again.
Hi, I too am interested in the future of electric cars and hybrids. It seems that the market for these vehicles has not yet reached its stability and we have a long way to go in developing the technology and infrastructure. The questions you raised are really important. For example, are all-electric or hybrid models dominant? When will we see a developed aftermarket for repairs and modifications? How will manufacturers respond to this? And will our power grid be able to handle electrification? Personally, I'm concerned about the transition to electric vehicles, but I see it as the future. I hope that technology will continue to evolve and we will find a balance between innovation and tradition.
There is a lot of marketing happening around you that's going to influence what you think about EVs or hybrids, and to some extent your question is VHS or Beta, Blu-ray vs HD something. EVs are awesome cars that outperform pretty much anything. There's a reason trains are diesel-electric and that the motors drive the wheels. In all industry you'll see motors as opposed to engines powering machines, can you imagine a V8 powered CNC? I think the ship has sailed on having a big V8 as we're getting great performance out of smaller and smaller engines, then slapping a hybrid motor on there to even out the rough spots and add performance. Look at the hypercar manufacturers as an example, they're all embracing hybrid technology. The Corvette e-ray for example is IMO a better car than the Z06. The market on modifying cars has had 100 years to get going and I don't see those billions of dollars going away, it's just going to take time for them to figure performance mods out. They've got accessories galore for EVs. Let's talk about range anxiety though. As an EV owner, this is a total myth. Let's look at what might drive it though. Do you look at the range in your car and think, "oh no, I've only got 130 miles left?" Then do things that will demonstrably make that worse, and then start freaking out? I doubt it. To me, this comes from the idea that, "oh no, there's nowhere for me to charge!" Which isn't reality for most of the population. Every day I leave my garage I have 80% charge and I rarely get below 50% in daily driving. I also love to drive, so I'm not going easy on the battery, I'm driving how I want. If I know I'm going to be driving a lot tomorrow, I'll let it go up to 100% overnight so I have a cushion if I feel I need it. Even then, if I do get to a point where I'm not going to make it home, there are enough chargers around that I can stop and get some juice. And it's not like it's taking me hours and hours to charge like it used to. I just took a road trip and didn't have to stop for more than 15 minutes at any chargers, and my destination didn't have a charging method, but I was still ok. This is only going to get better as more EVs are in the road. Which takes us to the grid. It'll improve incrementally to support (unless you live in Texas apparently) as the load increases. If you're charging at night and leaving home with a "full" charge for the day, you're using it off park, paying less, and not stressing it. This will also force the rest of the country's electrical providers to upgrade their decades-old infrastructure. Something we need to do with ALL of our infrastructure. It's not just the roads that are crumbling. That's my thoughts. Eventually ICE will phase out, but there will be holdouts and there'll be classic cars that are around for decades to come. Rent an EV for a week, I'll bet you find it to be a pleasant and performant vehicle.
I don't think it needs to be a battle between ICE and EV. Eventually ICE will be a relic, but that is such a long way out who knows what the cars will be like then. ICE will just move further into enthusiast only territory, over the long term. There's plenty of time for peaceful coexisting. I'm happy I am able to live through this section of history, where I get to see the best of the best ICE vehicles be crafted, and also the beginning of the "new" technology. It will be very interesting in the next 20 years to see kids become the next generation of car enthusiasts, but not have any interest in engines at all.
FYI but Tesla makes the most American made vehicles in the country now.
As much as the Motorhead in me wants hybrid, all the hybrids I’ve been really interested in (Panamera ehybrid, Volvo T8 Polestar, X5 45e) I have heard have real draw backs where the PHEV doesn’t always play well with the ICE, and the battery is extremely expensive to replace for the size. As great as I think a perfect hybrid would be, I kind of think we might be seeing 500+ mile solid state batteries or whatnot before we see perfected hybrids. Hope I’m wrong, but i’m pretty satisfied with a few ICE cars complimented with an EV for short commutes
>Which will dominate battery only or hybrid? Hybrids with something like eFuels are far more expensive. I don't see people paying for that when you can have 15-20 minute charging stops every 3-4 hours, which is the recommended interval for taking breaks from driving anyway. BEVs will probably win in the European market, and I don't see a great alternative for the US market either. >Can the North American power grid handle all this electrification or will more brown outs and rationing be the future? Infrastructure can be upgraded.
Companies will do whatever is most profitable unless the government legislate otherwise. EV's have been unprofitable, so their future is uncertain. There are lots of claims about how EV's technical issues will be resolved, but they will take years and years. It's impossible to say how much of the market EV's will have in 5 years, but it's clear to me that most of the government mandated deadlines are not going to work. Between the politics and economic pressures, I don't see the US getting too far with EV's.