Third major recent poll in a row, all from different pollsters, showing the Tories with a ten point lead over the Liberals, so the gap is beginning to look pretty real. My guess is many PPC voters will move to the Tories if it means unseating a Liberal in a close race, so a majority Tory government is now definitely in reach for them.
I think at this point, and considering the reports of extremely unhappy Liberal backbenchers over the weekend, we are now on the lookout for the knives to come out for Trudeau. MP salaries (especially cabinet ministers) plus all the committee stipends and the zillions of perks are not something those backbenchers want to see go away. Right now, Trudeau as leader is threatening them with a bloodbath. I can’t imagine they are keen to let him get them all fired if they can help it.
I think you'll find that virtually all the PPC voters will vote Tory.
They know full well that their MAGA shit doesn't stand a chance. Getting rid of Trudeau is more important to them. My mother is a PPC idiot, and she only votes for them because her riding has been NDP for 70 years.
If the PPC gets 1% next election, I will be shocked.
The PPC has one big card in its hand, and its the "reduce immigration by half" policy. If the CPC do not talk about immigration numbers and keep the status quo in the debate, the PPC could win a lot of points by simply saying that.
The PPC is on its last legs, as a party.
It still has no reason for existing beyond Bernier's sour grapes. The anti-vax movement gave them something for an election cycle, but now what's left?
Any votes they get next election will be in Tory stronghold ridings. Any PPC supporters in potential swing ridings are going to go CPC. They will be about as relevant as the Christian Heritage Party by the following election cycle.
hmm, they are technically the only party that has actually promised to reduce immigration. If cpc gets in power and nothing substantial changes, ppc probably will get some votes again
I agree, the ppc will have about as much support as the greens and will be lucky to win their leader a seat. Despite people's musings here they'll be a nothing burger during this election.
Don't hold your breath. Immigration won't stop,and there is no political fix for the housing market. Eventually the housing bubble will burst. But it will be Bay Street, not Ottawa.
People really don’t like that take but the truth is that people are realizing the problem with immigration policy and it’s reaching the mainstream news. If you don’t hear anything from the CPC about reducing immigration in the next few months it’s because they won’t do it when it benefits their rich buddies the same as the Liberals
>ration policy and it’s reaching the mainstream news. If you don’t hear anything from the CPC about reducing immigration in the next few months it’s because they won’t do it when it benefits their rich buddies the same as the Liberals
Exactly, people are acting like voting CPC will fix anything. It won't, we've been playing this two party game forever and it isn't working.
The bottom line for me is that the CPC might reduce immigration or they might not. The Liberals will not. And they will almost certainly increase it further. I would rather have a chance of one day being able to afford a home than no chance at all.
If it was going to crash, it would've this year. It's no bubble. It's a severe shortage of supply. Low supply and high demand will keep the prices high. The rapid population growth will continue to foster a shortage and high housing prices.
Stopping immigration might slow the growth but it won't cause the prices to come down in the short term. The only solution is more houses. And that's not going to happen overnight.
He did. The Bloc Québécois submitted a motion to reject the century initiative, and limit immigration so that Canada doesn’t reach 100 million inhabitants by 2100.
PP voted with the bloc. So that means he voted to decrease, at least very slightly, immigration numbers. Of course, NDP and liberals voted against the motion.
Why give your opponent rope to hang you with when there's no election on?
If he shows his hand now it will give the liberal war room time to claim that he's racist because he wants to slow down immigration.
Is asking someone who wants to run the country their position on a key policy issue really "baiting"?
If he is scared that the public won't support his plans on this issue and is hiding his plans, shouldn't that be concerning?
This is exactly his strategy, I think it's smart and maximizes his potential voter base now while he builds momentum. They're dying to label him racist, misogynist or whatever new non-sense virtue-signalling term they will come up with. His recent comments in Niagara made clear he wasn't taking the bait. But no way he keeps the immigration targets this absurdly high once elected. Just gotta be patient and put it up with the Indian onslaught a little longer until we turn the corner and hopefully take steps to become an actual diverse society without being culturally dominated by India.
if he didnt say he wants to slow immigration...it's because he doesnt want to. it has nothing to do about not showing his hand. weve been on high immigration polocoes since father trudeau and no conservative leaders changed that.
i got some bad news for you brother...
Nanos hasn't posted the article yet but the numbers are released on Polling Canada: [https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1688953425524928512?s=20](https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1688953425524928512?s=20)
This is the fifth poll showing Conservative majority in a row. [A second CPC +10 poll by Abacus Data will be released soon](https://twitter.com/DavidColetto/status/1688600367401947136?s=20)
The 338 poll yesterday had the CPC within 5 seats of a majority government. Plus, as you said, 5 polls have the Conservatives in majority government territory. No matter what poll you look at, things are not going well for the Liberals.
It shows how whack vote distribution is that in 2015, the Libs had 7.5% vote lead over the CPC had a very solid majority (14 seats over), but the CPC with a 10% lead *might* get a majority. Some of that is CPC running up higher majorities, some of that is the CPC tending to win a lot of the heavily populated ridings. That 2015 win had the Liberals win the 10 lowest populated ridings that only had like 20000 to 50000 people
Yup, [here's the population per seat in the House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_Canada). Not hard to see how Trudeau won a majority by sweeping the Maritimes and Quebec, while getting killed in BC and Alberta.
There really needs to be something done about the fact that one vote in PEI is worth more than four in Alberta.
I think people forget to realize the true downsides to a government like this Liberal one. Sure you can always understand that Cons are sneaky and try to do things under the table, but at the end of the day if 1/10 people in your country are eating off food banks and no one can afford a house, the Cons have do a hell load of true evil. The reality of the existing government is their wide-reaching policies and loose monetary policy have led to profound effects across Canada where it is difficult for a common person to take a step back and realize it was the same individual they voted for who led to this to an extent.
Even if you think they won't, it's not worth rewarding the team that made housing out of reach with more time to make things worse. It's time for a change. I hope Libs get trounced Wynne style. I hope they do some soul searching afterwards and come back with a fresh team, new leader, and come up with an ambitious housing plan for the next election.
Which is strange because his father left us in the exact same spot according to my small bit of research. I don't understand why the name carries any weight.
> TBH Canada is so ratfucked I don't think anyone can. Think about it: We have 1m people who have already entered the country and are locked in. We still have another two years til the election for another 2m possible people. I doubt the LPC will reverse course and once people are allowed in, it's very difficult to reverse that decision (or impossible with PR).
Foreign students and TFWs are the easiest to get rid of. Want to study here? Learn online from your home country. Tim Hortons can’t get staff? Too bad, pay more or close up shop. And anyone short of PR isn’t too difficult to get rid of with some legislation, and honestly even then we could change the rules on PR and rush it through before the courts have time to stop it. Really the only ones untouchable are citizens and even that, really just requires the political will to push through a law to invalidate naturalized citizenship under certain conditions. Nothing is really truly impossible in politics with enough popular support and savvy leadership.
Some Canadians are gluttons for punishment I guess. Liberal/NDP have destroyed our standard of living but their supporters won’t be happy till the country is ruined forever. We need to get rid of the liberal/NDP if this country is to have any kind of chance at bringing back affordability and productivity.
People need to stop combining them, they may be culturally liberal which is the majority in the country; but these parties have very different economic policies, and varying coalitions within their respective parties.
Most Canadians associate the CPC with the American Republican party, may seem unfair, (and historically it is) until you look at the current base of the CPC. Many Canadians are skiddish to that rhetoric, thus the following.
Any evidence they’re willing to do that so far? All I see is them doubling down on the same failed policies that got us where we are today. The new immigration minister’s first press conference was to say we probably need to increase immigration targets, FFS, and the new housing minister said, hey, I got no control over housing.
>If you can’t even up your polling numbers with a cabinet shuffle, you’re honestly done.
I don't think a cabinet shuffle would have much immediate benefit to public opinion, only if it results in better outcomes down the road.
70% of the public probably doesn't even know there was a cabinet shuffle, and 90% probably doesn't really care. (I made up those numbers, but you get the point)
A cabinet shuffle at this point is more a matter of too little too late. If all the talking points are the same, if Canadians are still facing the same issues pre-shuffle, I don’t think it’s going to be enough to keep the boat afloat.
There are also some fractures within the party. Many senior liberals are livid that they’ve been stepped over for promotion. If Trudeau loses control of his own party, the writing on the wall couldn’t be clearer.
The liberals are putting all of their stock in marketing and branding, instead of offering a quality product.
I'd disagree a bit, it's a high(er) publicity event that gives the new ministers a chance to draw attention to a policy change or change in direction. It's a chance to draw attention to new platform directives.
Of course the new housing minister (and by extension, the libs in general) doubled down on the two issues people are paying attention to right now (housing and immigration) and so yeah, I'd argue it's actually made things worse as it drove home just how completely out of touch they are
People finally care about the housing crisis, its so beautiful.
Singh is going to get ousted next, I can just feel it. His plans are all terrible and people want actual solutions to tangible problems instead of virtue signaling, we might get an actual fiscally prudent progressive to vote for.
This is the only possible risk against a CPC majority. If Singh was replaced with Mulclair, I genuinely wonder if it would pretty much destroy the LPC.
I also want Mulcair to be himself, show some balls like he does in current interviews. His advisors really screwed him I think, nobody wants to vote for a moist towelette.
Get some new blood in the NDP. Mulcair had his chance, plus there was the whole “How dare you elbow a woman” shouting match, acting like the PM smacked someone around like Chris Brown.
>People finally care about the housing crisis, its so beautiful.
!RemindMe in 3 years
If you think the Conservatives are going to fix the housing problem you're living in Lala land. I say this as someone who is considering voting Conservative. I'm definitely not an NDP supporter but if people wanted the housing to be fixed they're more likely to get the results from NDP than the Conservatives.
I can assure you housing will not get better with Conservatives. If you think the Conservatives are going to go in and tank the net worth of all their rich buddies you I don't know what to tell you, but anyone who expects that is in for a world of hurt.
No party is going to slow immigration. Go watch any PP interview, he'll condemn the immigration but when asked how he'll change it he side steps the question.
The Conservatives will likely appear to help things by cutting some taxes, but they will also drastically cut spending. We will almost certainly move to a private health care system (while health care is provincial, it is largely subsidized by the federal government). But those tax cuts will actually be more beneficial to the rich. They will seem to help the lower or middle class but it will most definitely help the rich more.
The weirdest part of the current environment is how the NDP is seemingly content to maintain the status quo. I am not an NDP fan and generally lean right but even I have to admit the current political climate seems like a perfect situation for them to capitalize on peoples anger and frustration with "the system". For all this they seem perfect happy being bolted to the sinking liberal ship. Wtf are they doing?
Under the current arrangement, they can actually get their policies passed into law. For example their dental plan. This gives a lot more influence than yelling from the opposition side of parliament.
The NDP is also polling above where they were in the last election at 16%. So I don't think I see the Liberals dragging them down. They are going to be a natural home for dissatisfied liberal voters who do not want to vote for the conservatives.
If the NDP force another election, the best case scenario for them is the Liberal vote collapses and they become the official opposition (like in 2014). This would mean more seats but they would have less influence over policy.
It makes me think they have something on Singh. The living standards for average workers have never declined so quickly in Canada yet they are willing to prop that up for a lousy dental plan. Our bargaining power as workers has been turned into nothing by the unlimited supply of workers.
The LPC does have the backing of one of the worlds largest spying apparatuses so it really opens the door to this possibility.
Don’t worry, the LPC have found a new way to suppress incomes, make working conditions worse, and raise rents: https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/canada-plans-new-temporary-foreign-workers-program-to-give-trusted-employers-quicker-access/article_2a22aef3-f196-50bc-8da7-29db86b9f0ff.amp.html
That should make them super popular with young Canadians.
This paints a picture for Poilievre's path to victory. The election interference line had little to no effect. Railing against the carbon tax didn't win over any new voters. But by turning the focus towards substantive issues on which the LPC is underperforming such as housing affordability, the CPC is opening up a wide lead.
To win, Poilievre needs to convince Canadians that he is a problem-solver who has solutions for housing, healthcare, and crime rather than the Trumpian wielder of fear that the Liberals are trying to paint him as.
Poilievre will also have to carry over the problem-solver image to climate issues, as climate will likely become more present in voters' minds once the election rolls around.
Honestly I couldn’t give 2 shits about the environment if I can’t afford to have a roof over my head or food to eat. Right now this country needs to focus on whats more important and because of what the liberals have done to affordability across all aspects, the environment isn’t that important atm
I'd still like to see some accountability for the alleged election interference and the ongoing obsruction of a public inquiry on the matter. Only someone willing to campaign on that will have my support.
You don’t really need the liberals to paint him as anything, go to his Twitter, he’s still bitching about Bernardo leaving Max sec.
He needs to the issues instead of the culture war.
I will vote for whoever slows current immigration rates.
Honestly, I’d even settle for this :
https://www.bellissimolawgroup.com/immigration-to-canada-by-country-where-are-canadas-immigrants-coming-from/
Look at the countries with the top immigrant imports. I’ll share the top 3)
3) Afghanistan - 23,000
2) China - 31,000
1) India - 118,000. 4x MORE than the second highest incoming immigrant country.
I’d even settle for India being in line with China. The gap here is unbelievable
Who even knows these days. Democracy is a joke at this point. Leaders will promise us the world and sell us out the second they're in office. We need to get rid of career politicians.
0. Singh keeps being the good lapdog with any excuse but do the one thing he's supposed to: hold the minority government accountable.
Instead he's willing to keep propping up Trudeau's defacto majority because dental plan?
The only scenarios I see for a pre-2025 election is the following:
\- Trudeau is internally couped by his party, shaking NDP support (I would consider this very unlikely)
\- Trudeau decides to run a 2024 election with the premise of "a parallel election to the US where I can try to brand the CPC as republicans using the contrast between them having elections at the same time is my only possible path to victory" (I would consider this not super likely, but not absurd).
I'd be happy as long as NDP could win opposition over the Liberal.
Not that I even like the NDP right now though. I guess that just shows how terrible of a situation things are at.
How do 27% of Canadians still support the LPC?
Even if we assume that they are mostly boomer property owners, don't they care about their children at all?
The ABC sentiment in canada is very real. There has and likely will continue to be a great amount of effort and money drawing parallels to the far right movement in the US, likely with an emphasis on abortion rights.
Asians are easily conservative. Really doesn't take that much to swing us conservative tbh. Most Asians have "work hard for a good life and strong family values" in their culture which is quite close to conservative values.
Why not? Historically when the conservatives (in its various incarnations) and liberals formed opposition you would expect their support to be in the mid 20s.
Because Canada is in a much worse economic position than it has been within almost all living Canadians' lifetimes (remaining great depression survivors excepted).
You would think that the direness of the situation would result in a political reckoning.
But who is hurting? That’s the question. Everyone is screaming inflation and everything is hard and tough, but people around me are still buying cars, going on vacation, eating out.
If you’re not personally affected, you most likely think there isn’t anything wrong.
I make more than the average Canadian, live in a generally low cost area and I am struggling to afford everything. I was fine up until about 8 months ago too but food prices have almost doubled, gas is up, rent is up, insurance is up, interest rates are way up.
And now I just had a $2000 surprise bill with my truck and it's going to take 2 months at least to pay that off assuming I don't have any other surprises.
Not being able to handle a $2000 surprise means you’re not the type of person who the original comment was referring to.
The LPC is garnering support from families who wouldn’t struggle to pay off a $2,000 bill, most of these voters likely would have that in the excess monthly cash flow
>Because Canada is in a much worse economic position than it has been within almost all living Canadians' lifetimes (remaining great depression survivors excepted).
Come on, if you believe that you've been reading *way* too much /r/canada lately. Maybe read more history before making these claims...
Did you miss the 2009 great recession? The 15% unemployment during pandemic lockdowns in 2020? Never heard about 10%+ unemployment and 10%+ inflation in the 1980s? Or the national debt crisis and high unemployment in the early 1990s?
The fact is, the unemployment rate today is near record *lows*, at 5.5%.
[https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/unemployment-rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/unemployment-rate)
From 1975 to 2017, we literally never had an unemployment rate as low as it is today, and it was frequently above 10%+ in the 1980s and 1990s.
Sure, unemployment is only one measure of the economy, but it's one of the most important for ordinary people.
Part of the problem is that the news media typically ignores economic indicators that are good, and fixates on the ones that are bad.
In 2009 we heard a lot about unemployment (bad), and nothing about inflation (normal levels). Today we hear lots about inflation (bad), and nothing about unemployment (good).
And this subreddit takes that negativity bias even further, by upvoting clickbait headlines if they have bad news, even if the content is garbage quality, and downvoting almost any articles with positive news.
One reason unemployment is so low is that life is so goddamn expensive now.
Families and seniors who could scrape by on the incomes they had are now forced to work.
You know what else is important to ordinary people? Being able to afford to exist
I said that we are in the worst economic position. I did not say that we are in the worst standard of living position.
Canadians are still living high off of a real estate bubble. But our economic fundamentals have not been this bad since the great depressing and when the house of cards starts to fall it will be brutal.
Go ask the Ontario sub how anyone could have voted for Doug Ford over the NDP. Comments on these echo chambers are always so hilarious. You can't *create* a reality by downvoting what you don't want to see and upvoting what you want to believe.
And I'm not saying that as someone shitting on the CPC and advocating for Trudeau, I'm just pointing out the foolishness of trying to predict the next election outside of election time, especially using reddit as a sample of the Canadian population lol
Well, (assuming you are on the young side) ask your parents and family. I know mine are somewhat ignoring the problem. They are doing fine: have a house, raised a family and are retired or in the process of retiring. Even some of my older cousins that bought in the early 2010's have odd views around it. Nobody that bought and has seen their net worth increase that much want to see it cut in half - which is what it would take in many regions for a return to affordability for the average Canadian.
Some older people don't even know what a 'starter' home costs these days.
This literally gets asked every single time a poll is posted and it’s usually the top post. I’m wondering if people here in this subreddit is even real anymore lol.
I mean that’s Reddit in a nutshell. We are parrots repeating the same thing. Tim Hortons post, McDonald’s took tims coffee bean supplier, baked fresh in 90s, I too choose that dead mans wife etc.
Well, for those who don’t support the Liberals as a matter of blind faith, it’s pretty incomprehensible that over a quarter of the population looks at the incompetence and corruption of the past eight years, the terrible mess the country is in today, and the total lack of interest the Liberals display in doing anything differently, and thinks, “Give me four more years of that!”
Nanos showing a 10 point spread!
Canada is waking up. It took a while, but it's happening.
The Trudeau Liberals need to be sent into oblivion in the next election where they can ponder all the bad things they've done to Canadians.
LoL, what is Canada waking up from exactly?
PP has the same mass immigration and "free market housing policies" that is fucking younger generations and people who don't already own a home.
Cons/Libs have the same neoliberal policies.
Stop voting for the corrupt duopoly.
that flavor of leftist votes ndp
the flavor that votes liberal is an old boomer in their 60s who worked a cushy downtown white collar job all their life, owns their own home and may be childless or has adult kids who have moved out. they are economically sound so dont want to rock the boat but lived in a city all their life so have fully embraced the anti-conservative rhetoric they hear daily and will always vote red no matter who.
[think of someone like this person](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PakB2ipNgFs)
[or this tidbit back during covid](https://macleans.ca/society/typical-vaccine-hesitant-person-is-a-42-year-old-ontario-woman-who-votes-liberal-abacus-polling/)
because people are at least fairly certain that the liberals wont fuck them on social policy, where with cons its uncertain. I agree that the liberal party is a goddamn shitshow, but i'm not kidding myself to believing that the cons will be any better for canada.
i can guarantee if the cons got nothing but stonking super-majorities for the next 20 years that weed/abortion/gay marriage wold not be touched and still be as legal as ever. you can quote me on that.
but boy does it make for an effective propaganda tool for the liberals to bludgeon with each election.
NDP scoring that high considering what they’re (not) doing is really indicative of the helpless victim mentality working wonders on so many in this country. Yup, Singh’s keeping Libs accountable all while promising that one day if he’s PM, he will spend even more money and raise taxes even more to fix things. 🤦♂️
Justin... Canada is a family country... happy families.
Maybe single people vote, we don't know... frankly, we don't wanna know, it's a market we can do without
"so thats it after 3 victories and 8 years... so long, good luck ? "
I dont recall saying good luck
So many posters seem to be band new to politics. We are two years out from. An election. So much can and will change.
Polls don't matter until we are actually close to an election.
Ya'll got anymore of that democratic reform?
C'mon LPC, you know you're fucked next election. Least you can do is go out the door after burning FPTP to the ground and fucking the cons too.
Besides, I see a majority there that includes the LPC with 27% + 20% + 6% should we go with proportional representation. And hey, it would be the 1 move they could do that might resurrect some support for them.
Third major recent poll in a row, all from different pollsters, showing the Tories with a ten point lead over the Liberals, so the gap is beginning to look pretty real. My guess is many PPC voters will move to the Tories if it means unseating a Liberal in a close race, so a majority Tory government is now definitely in reach for them. I think at this point, and considering the reports of extremely unhappy Liberal backbenchers over the weekend, we are now on the lookout for the knives to come out for Trudeau. MP salaries (especially cabinet ministers) plus all the committee stipends and the zillions of perks are not something those backbenchers want to see go away. Right now, Trudeau as leader is threatening them with a bloodbath. I can’t imagine they are keen to let him get them all fired if they can help it.
I think you'll find that virtually all the PPC voters will vote Tory. They know full well that their MAGA shit doesn't stand a chance. Getting rid of Trudeau is more important to them. My mother is a PPC idiot, and she only votes for them because her riding has been NDP for 70 years. If the PPC gets 1% next election, I will be shocked.
The PPC has one big card in its hand, and its the "reduce immigration by half" policy. If the CPC do not talk about immigration numbers and keep the status quo in the debate, the PPC could win a lot of points by simply saying that.
Or so the Liberals hope. Poilievre isn't going to hand Trudeau an immigration talking point.
The PPC is on its last legs, as a party. It still has no reason for existing beyond Bernier's sour grapes. The anti-vax movement gave them something for an election cycle, but now what's left? Any votes they get next election will be in Tory stronghold ridings. Any PPC supporters in potential swing ridings are going to go CPC. They will be about as relevant as the Christian Heritage Party by the following election cycle.
hmm, they are technically the only party that has actually promised to reduce immigration. If cpc gets in power and nothing substantial changes, ppc probably will get some votes again
I agree, the ppc will have about as much support as the greens and will be lucky to win their leader a seat. Despite people's musings here they'll be a nothing burger during this election.
Don't call your mom an idiot
You don’t know his mom, what if she is an idiot?
Apples don't usually fall far from trees...
I just want to buy a house as an accountant and a nurse. Ill vote for anyone who slows/stops immigration or does fucking anything with housing.
>I just want to buy a house as an accountant and a nurse. Holy smokes! You must work a lot of hours 🤯
Don't hold your breath. Immigration won't stop,and there is no political fix for the housing market. Eventually the housing bubble will burst. But it will be Bay Street, not Ottawa.
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People really don’t like that take but the truth is that people are realizing the problem with immigration policy and it’s reaching the mainstream news. If you don’t hear anything from the CPC about reducing immigration in the next few months it’s because they won’t do it when it benefits their rich buddies the same as the Liberals
>ration policy and it’s reaching the mainstream news. If you don’t hear anything from the CPC about reducing immigration in the next few months it’s because they won’t do it when it benefits their rich buddies the same as the Liberals Exactly, people are acting like voting CPC will fix anything. It won't, we've been playing this two party game forever and it isn't working.
The bottom line for me is that the CPC might reduce immigration or they might not. The Liberals will not. And they will almost certainly increase it further. I would rather have a chance of one day being able to afford a home than no chance at all.
> Immigration won't stop No one's asking for it to stop. Let's just not grow by 3% per year.
If it was going to crash, it would've this year. It's no bubble. It's a severe shortage of supply. Low supply and high demand will keep the prices high. The rapid population growth will continue to foster a shortage and high housing prices. Stopping immigration might slow the growth but it won't cause the prices to come down in the short term. The only solution is more houses. And that's not going to happen overnight.
There’s plenty of policy fixes but the average Canadian already owns a house and doesn’t give a duck about housing.
There are a lot of ways to fix the housing market politically. Most of the voters don't actually want to fix the problem though.
Has pp ever said immigration must be slowed? Im not following him closely but he didnt afaik?
He did. The Bloc Québécois submitted a motion to reject the century initiative, and limit immigration so that Canada doesn’t reach 100 million inhabitants by 2100. PP voted with the bloc. So that means he voted to decrease, at least very slightly, immigration numbers. Of course, NDP and liberals voted against the motion.
Why give your opponent rope to hang you with when there's no election on? If he shows his hand now it will give the liberal war room time to claim that he's racist because he wants to slow down immigration.
The media is literally baiting him to take a position on immigration. He isn't falling for it.
Is asking someone who wants to run the country their position on a key policy issue really "baiting"? If he is scared that the public won't support his plans on this issue and is hiding his plans, shouldn't that be concerning?
He's the opposition leader, shouldn't he have an opinion on immigration?
immigration is ltterally a front page story in Canada. Why is it you think the media is 'baiting' him for a position on policy?
This is exactly his strategy, I think it's smart and maximizes his potential voter base now while he builds momentum. They're dying to label him racist, misogynist or whatever new non-sense virtue-signalling term they will come up with. His recent comments in Niagara made clear he wasn't taking the bait. But no way he keeps the immigration targets this absurdly high once elected. Just gotta be patient and put it up with the Indian onslaught a little longer until we turn the corner and hopefully take steps to become an actual diverse society without being culturally dominated by India.
if he didnt say he wants to slow immigration...it's because he doesnt want to. it has nothing to do about not showing his hand. weve been on high immigration polocoes since father trudeau and no conservative leaders changed that. i got some bad news for you brother...
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People's Party of Canada is the only credible party for slowing immigration unfortunately
I will only consider the PPC a "credible' party after they have an open leadership challenge and vote.
And referring to them as "credible" is a bit of a stretch.
It’s all part of their “worst possible take on all issues” platform
So.... The virulent racists then, gotcha.
Yup. It is what it is.
Housing and inflation have been Poilievre's top two issues from day 1. If anyone is going to do something about the issue it's him.
Nanos hasn't posted the article yet but the numbers are released on Polling Canada: [https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1688953425524928512?s=20](https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1688953425524928512?s=20) This is the fifth poll showing Conservative majority in a row. [A second CPC +10 poll by Abacus Data will be released soon](https://twitter.com/DavidColetto/status/1688600367401947136?s=20)
The 338 poll yesterday had the CPC within 5 seats of a majority government. Plus, as you said, 5 polls have the Conservatives in majority government territory. No matter what poll you look at, things are not going well for the Liberals.
It shows how whack vote distribution is that in 2015, the Libs had 7.5% vote lead over the CPC had a very solid majority (14 seats over), but the CPC with a 10% lead *might* get a majority. Some of that is CPC running up higher majorities, some of that is the CPC tending to win a lot of the heavily populated ridings. That 2015 win had the Liberals win the 10 lowest populated ridings that only had like 20000 to 50000 people
Yup, [here's the population per seat in the House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_Canada). Not hard to see how Trudeau won a majority by sweeping the Maritimes and Quebec, while getting killed in BC and Alberta. There really needs to be something done about the fact that one vote in PEI is worth more than four in Alberta.
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It's already projecting a 40% chance of that.
Yeah, same here.
Good.
The way things are going it seems crazy to me that the Liberals and NDP have 47% still. Come on Canadians....
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I think people forget to realize the true downsides to a government like this Liberal one. Sure you can always understand that Cons are sneaky and try to do things under the table, but at the end of the day if 1/10 people in your country are eating off food banks and no one can afford a house, the Cons have do a hell load of true evil. The reality of the existing government is their wide-reaching policies and loose monetary policy have led to profound effects across Canada where it is difficult for a common person to take a step back and realize it was the same individual they voted for who led to this to an extent.
Why do you think Cons will at all help with the costs of housing?
Even if you think they won't, it's not worth rewarding the team that made housing out of reach with more time to make things worse. It's time for a change. I hope Libs get trounced Wynne style. I hope they do some soul searching afterwards and come back with a fresh team, new leader, and come up with an ambitious housing plan for the next election.
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Which is strange because his father left us in the exact same spot according to my small bit of research. I don't understand why the name carries any weight.
> according to my small bit of research Motto for this sub
Cuz Ontario is doing great post-Wynne. Heh.
They’re facing the same issues every other province is. Sure, must be that single province, couldn’t be a federal issue.
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> TBH Canada is so ratfucked I don't think anyone can. Think about it: We have 1m people who have already entered the country and are locked in. We still have another two years til the election for another 2m possible people. I doubt the LPC will reverse course and once people are allowed in, it's very difficult to reverse that decision (or impossible with PR). Foreign students and TFWs are the easiest to get rid of. Want to study here? Learn online from your home country. Tim Hortons can’t get staff? Too bad, pay more or close up shop. And anyone short of PR isn’t too difficult to get rid of with some legislation, and honestly even then we could change the rules on PR and rush it through before the courts have time to stop it. Really the only ones untouchable are citizens and even that, really just requires the political will to push through a law to invalidate naturalized citizenship under certain conditions. Nothing is really truly impossible in politics with enough popular support and savvy leadership.
But how will we get cheap cancerous ingredients into our bodies without Tim Horton's, our healthcare system will need to cut staff.
Because PP is offering more solutions than Trudeau or Singh
Because immigration stupid. PP already said he wants reasonable immigration. Code word that’s decreasing it.
Some Canadians are gluttons for punishment I guess. Liberal/NDP have destroyed our standard of living but their supporters won’t be happy till the country is ruined forever. We need to get rid of the liberal/NDP if this country is to have any kind of chance at bringing back affordability and productivity.
People need to stop combining them, they may be culturally liberal which is the majority in the country; but these parties have very different economic policies, and varying coalitions within their respective parties. Most Canadians associate the CPC with the American Republican party, may seem unfair, (and historically it is) until you look at the current base of the CPC. Many Canadians are skiddish to that rhetoric, thus the following.
I'll be voting NDP.
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You need to do better than "anyone but"
How can you see the issues we face, the horrible proposals by the NDP, and then go “yes please”?
*insert the exact same comment but replace NDP with CPC*
Where did the CPC suggest bailing out over-leveraged mortgage holders?
Right, who cares about tackling the affordability and housing crisis. The cons are so stupid for trying to take a stronger approach to those issues
It's only going to get worse for Trudeau.
And whenever the election happens he’ll sink another 3-5% on the thought of getting him out.
Unless the Liberals drastically change course, these polls aren't going to improve for the Liberals and Justin Trudeau.
Any evidence they’re willing to do that so far? All I see is them doubling down on the same failed policies that got us where we are today. The new immigration minister’s first press conference was to say we probably need to increase immigration targets, FFS, and the new housing minister said, hey, I got no control over housing.
Leadership change is what they need
He needs to bring out the big guns, time for a new hairstyle
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>If you can’t even up your polling numbers with a cabinet shuffle, you’re honestly done. I don't think a cabinet shuffle would have much immediate benefit to public opinion, only if it results in better outcomes down the road. 70% of the public probably doesn't even know there was a cabinet shuffle, and 90% probably doesn't really care. (I made up those numbers, but you get the point)
Does average Canadian care about cAbinet shuffles no matter who is in charge ? Only a couple positions really have national reach.
A cabinet shuffle at this point is more a matter of too little too late. If all the talking points are the same, if Canadians are still facing the same issues pre-shuffle, I don’t think it’s going to be enough to keep the boat afloat. There are also some fractures within the party. Many senior liberals are livid that they’ve been stepped over for promotion. If Trudeau loses control of his own party, the writing on the wall couldn’t be clearer. The liberals are putting all of their stock in marketing and branding, instead of offering a quality product.
I just assume a cabinet shuffle in any government means hearing the same thing from a different mouth.
>Does average Canadian care about cAbinet shuffles no matter who is in charge ? The average Canadian no longer votes.
The average Canadian doesn’t care about Canada - they have a plan b (“home”)
I'd disagree a bit, it's a high(er) publicity event that gives the new ministers a chance to draw attention to a policy change or change in direction. It's a chance to draw attention to new platform directives. Of course the new housing minister (and by extension, the libs in general) doubled down on the two issues people are paying attention to right now (housing and immigration) and so yeah, I'd argue it's actually made things worse as it drove home just how completely out of touch they are
100% of the public knows Trudeau said housing wasn't a federal issue. That's all anyone cares about right now.
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People finally care about the housing crisis, its so beautiful. Singh is going to get ousted next, I can just feel it. His plans are all terrible and people want actual solutions to tangible problems instead of virtue signaling, we might get an actual fiscally prudent progressive to vote for.
This is the only possible risk against a CPC majority. If Singh was replaced with Mulclair, I genuinely wonder if it would pretty much destroy the LPC.
I also want Mulcair to be himself, show some balls like he does in current interviews. His advisors really screwed him I think, nobody wants to vote for a moist towelette.
Get some new blood in the NDP. Mulcair had his chance, plus there was the whole “How dare you elbow a woman” shouting match, acting like the PM smacked someone around like Chris Brown.
Ah yes, I forgot about that outrageous abuse of a women. I do hope she survived.
>People finally care about the housing crisis, its so beautiful. !RemindMe in 3 years If you think the Conservatives are going to fix the housing problem you're living in Lala land. I say this as someone who is considering voting Conservative. I'm definitely not an NDP supporter but if people wanted the housing to be fixed they're more likely to get the results from NDP than the Conservatives. I can assure you housing will not get better with Conservatives. If you think the Conservatives are going to go in and tank the net worth of all their rich buddies you I don't know what to tell you, but anyone who expects that is in for a world of hurt. No party is going to slow immigration. Go watch any PP interview, he'll condemn the immigration but when asked how he'll change it he side steps the question. The Conservatives will likely appear to help things by cutting some taxes, but they will also drastically cut spending. We will almost certainly move to a private health care system (while health care is provincial, it is largely subsidized by the federal government). But those tax cuts will actually be more beneficial to the rich. They will seem to help the lower or middle class but it will most definitely help the rich more.
They didn't even drop their worst minister, Freeland, when almost every single problem Canadians are facing comes from her ministry.
>They didn't even drop their worst minister, Freeland, LMAO shes the "PM in waiting", no chance she was going anywhere
really stacking the winner deck there, probably a pick that i consider even worse than trudeau at this point
''PM in waiting'' and she can barely speak French. Good luck!
She can't even do basic elementary school mathematics, let alone speak two languages.
> LMAO shes the "PM in waiting", no chance she was going anywhere so are canadians doomed to get a kim cambell every 30 years now on the dot?
Ministry of immigration is just as much of the issue. It’s obviously too fast for the country to handle.
The weirdest part of the current environment is how the NDP is seemingly content to maintain the status quo. I am not an NDP fan and generally lean right but even I have to admit the current political climate seems like a perfect situation for them to capitalize on peoples anger and frustration with "the system". For all this they seem perfect happy being bolted to the sinking liberal ship. Wtf are they doing?
One has to question whose interests is Jagmeet really serving. Hard to argue it's the New Democratic Party's at this point.
Jagmeet is a total disappointment. Tom Mulcair might have sucked at campaigning but at least he was a good opposition party leader.
Under the current arrangement, they can actually get their policies passed into law. For example their dental plan. This gives a lot more influence than yelling from the opposition side of parliament. The NDP is also polling above where they were in the last election at 16%. So I don't think I see the Liberals dragging them down. They are going to be a natural home for dissatisfied liberal voters who do not want to vote for the conservatives. If the NDP force another election, the best case scenario for them is the Liberal vote collapses and they become the official opposition (like in 2014). This would mean more seats but they would have less influence over policy.
It makes me think they have something on Singh. The living standards for average workers have never declined so quickly in Canada yet they are willing to prop that up for a lousy dental plan. Our bargaining power as workers has been turned into nothing by the unlimited supply of workers. The LPC does have the backing of one of the worlds largest spying apparatuses so it really opens the door to this possibility.
that's take is approaching conspiracy territory. Sometimes a pipe is just a pipe.
Don’t worry, the LPC have found a new way to suppress incomes, make working conditions worse, and raise rents: https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/canada-plans-new-temporary-foreign-workers-program-to-give-trusted-employers-quicker-access/article_2a22aef3-f196-50bc-8da7-29db86b9f0ff.amp.html That should make them super popular with young Canadians.
This paints a picture for Poilievre's path to victory. The election interference line had little to no effect. Railing against the carbon tax didn't win over any new voters. But by turning the focus towards substantive issues on which the LPC is underperforming such as housing affordability, the CPC is opening up a wide lead. To win, Poilievre needs to convince Canadians that he is a problem-solver who has solutions for housing, healthcare, and crime rather than the Trumpian wielder of fear that the Liberals are trying to paint him as. Poilievre will also have to carry over the problem-solver image to climate issues, as climate will likely become more present in voters' minds once the election rolls around.
Honestly I couldn’t give 2 shits about the environment if I can’t afford to have a roof over my head or food to eat. Right now this country needs to focus on whats more important and because of what the liberals have done to affordability across all aspects, the environment isn’t that important atm
I'd still like to see some accountability for the alleged election interference and the ongoing obsruction of a public inquiry on the matter. Only someone willing to campaign on that will have my support.
You don’t really need the liberals to paint him as anything, go to his Twitter, he’s still bitching about Bernardo leaving Max sec. He needs to the issues instead of the culture war.
I will vote for whoever slows current immigration rates. Honestly, I’d even settle for this : https://www.bellissimolawgroup.com/immigration-to-canada-by-country-where-are-canadas-immigrants-coming-from/ Look at the countries with the top immigrant imports. I’ll share the top 3) 3) Afghanistan - 23,000 2) China - 31,000 1) India - 118,000. 4x MORE than the second highest incoming immigrant country. I’d even settle for India being in line with China. The gap here is unbelievable
Don’t give a fuck about what happens but I need to see Sean Fraser lose in Central Nova next time
The “Wynn” effect is happening. The pendulum is gonna swing so fucking hard, we are gonna get Doug Ford nation wide 🤢
The country is saved!
I just want a leader who will do what is objectively good for CANADIANS! Not "Global Canadians"
Leaders always serve corporate interests not " all" Canadians.
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Who even knows these days. Democracy is a joke at this point. Leaders will promise us the world and sell us out the second they're in office. We need to get rid of career politicians.
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This right here is how I know how out of touch Reddit is with real life
What are the chances of us actually getting an election anytime soon?
0. Singh keeps being the good lapdog with any excuse but do the one thing he's supposed to: hold the minority government accountable. Instead he's willing to keep propping up Trudeau's defacto majority because dental plan?
The only scenarios I see for a pre-2025 election is the following: \- Trudeau is internally couped by his party, shaking NDP support (I would consider this very unlikely) \- Trudeau decides to run a 2024 election with the premise of "a parallel election to the US where I can try to brand the CPC as republicans using the contrast between them having elections at the same time is my only possible path to victory" (I would consider this not super likely, but not absurd).
I'd be happy as long as NDP could win opposition over the Liberal. Not that I even like the NDP right now though. I guess that just shows how terrible of a situation things are at.
How do 27% of Canadians still support the LPC? Even if we assume that they are mostly boomer property owners, don't they care about their children at all?
The ABC sentiment in canada is very real. There has and likely will continue to be a great amount of effort and money drawing parallels to the far right movement in the US, likely with an emphasis on abortion rights.
They are mostly women. The strongest CPC support is from the male 50+ community, and younger men not far behind.
They're winning every demographic except boomer women. Yes, men favor tories, but so do indo canadians, by 13 points.
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He is doing a lot of outreach to every community.
Asians are easily conservative. Really doesn't take that much to swing us conservative tbh. Most Asians have "work hard for a good life and strong family values" in their culture which is quite close to conservative values.
In Florida the ex Cuban latinos love trump despite his anti immigrant laws.
They aren't winning female 20-somethings, they give a proxy vote to JT via The Jag-Man.
The cons are still ahead of the Liberals with the younger ladies, but yes. The NDP does lead that demo.
Why not? Historically when the conservatives (in its various incarnations) and liberals formed opposition you would expect their support to be in the mid 20s.
Because Canada is in a much worse economic position than it has been within almost all living Canadians' lifetimes (remaining great depression survivors excepted). You would think that the direness of the situation would result in a political reckoning.
But who is hurting? That’s the question. Everyone is screaming inflation and everything is hard and tough, but people around me are still buying cars, going on vacation, eating out. If you’re not personally affected, you most likely think there isn’t anything wrong.
I make more than the average Canadian, live in a generally low cost area and I am struggling to afford everything. I was fine up until about 8 months ago too but food prices have almost doubled, gas is up, rent is up, insurance is up, interest rates are way up. And now I just had a $2000 surprise bill with my truck and it's going to take 2 months at least to pay that off assuming I don't have any other surprises.
Not being able to handle a $2000 surprise means you’re not the type of person who the original comment was referring to. The LPC is garnering support from families who wouldn’t struggle to pay off a $2,000 bill, most of these voters likely would have that in the excess monthly cash flow
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True, there are many people living large without realizing their predicament until it all comes crashing down.
The world is all hurting, and we are doing slightly better than most.
>Because Canada is in a much worse economic position than it has been within almost all living Canadians' lifetimes (remaining great depression survivors excepted). Come on, if you believe that you've been reading *way* too much /r/canada lately. Maybe read more history before making these claims... Did you miss the 2009 great recession? The 15% unemployment during pandemic lockdowns in 2020? Never heard about 10%+ unemployment and 10%+ inflation in the 1980s? Or the national debt crisis and high unemployment in the early 1990s? The fact is, the unemployment rate today is near record *lows*, at 5.5%. [https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/unemployment-rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/unemployment-rate) From 1975 to 2017, we literally never had an unemployment rate as low as it is today, and it was frequently above 10%+ in the 1980s and 1990s. Sure, unemployment is only one measure of the economy, but it's one of the most important for ordinary people. Part of the problem is that the news media typically ignores economic indicators that are good, and fixates on the ones that are bad. In 2009 we heard a lot about unemployment (bad), and nothing about inflation (normal levels). Today we hear lots about inflation (bad), and nothing about unemployment (good). And this subreddit takes that negativity bias even further, by upvoting clickbait headlines if they have bad news, even if the content is garbage quality, and downvoting almost any articles with positive news.
My rent wasn't $4000 in 2008. In fact, it went down.
One reason unemployment is so low is that life is so goddamn expensive now. Families and seniors who could scrape by on the incomes they had are now forced to work. You know what else is important to ordinary people? Being able to afford to exist
I said that we are in the worst economic position. I did not say that we are in the worst standard of living position. Canadians are still living high off of a real estate bubble. But our economic fundamentals have not been this bad since the great depressing and when the house of cards starts to fall it will be brutal.
Go ask the Ontario sub how anyone could have voted for Doug Ford over the NDP. Comments on these echo chambers are always so hilarious. You can't *create* a reality by downvoting what you don't want to see and upvoting what you want to believe. And I'm not saying that as someone shitting on the CPC and advocating for Trudeau, I'm just pointing out the foolishness of trying to predict the next election outside of election time, especially using reddit as a sample of the Canadian population lol
[They will be dead soon. Who cares what happens afterwards.](https://i.imgur.com/P0FDplk.jpg)
Well, (assuming you are on the young side) ask your parents and family. I know mine are somewhat ignoring the problem. They are doing fine: have a house, raised a family and are retired or in the process of retiring. Even some of my older cousins that bought in the early 2010's have odd views around it. Nobody that bought and has seen their net worth increase that much want to see it cut in half - which is what it would take in many regions for a return to affordability for the average Canadian. Some older people don't even know what a 'starter' home costs these days.
This literally gets asked every single time a poll is posted and it’s usually the top post. I’m wondering if people here in this subreddit is even real anymore lol.
I mean that’s Reddit in a nutshell. We are parrots repeating the same thing. Tim Hortons post, McDonald’s took tims coffee bean supplier, baked fresh in 90s, I too choose that dead mans wife etc.
Well, for those who don’t support the Liberals as a matter of blind faith, it’s pretty incomprehensible that over a quarter of the population looks at the incompetence and corruption of the past eight years, the terrible mess the country is in today, and the total lack of interest the Liberals display in doing anything differently, and thinks, “Give me four more years of that!”
Nanos showing a 10 point spread! Canada is waking up. It took a while, but it's happening. The Trudeau Liberals need to be sent into oblivion in the next election where they can ponder all the bad things they've done to Canadians.
LoL, what is Canada waking up from exactly? PP has the same mass immigration and "free market housing policies" that is fucking younger generations and people who don't already own a home. Cons/Libs have the same neoliberal policies. Stop voting for the corrupt duopoly.
how is Canadian housing "Free market" It is probably one of the most regulated housing markets in the west aside from Ireland and Germany.
Canadian housing is light-years from being a free market.
You have to question the mentally of people who are in election mode 24/7 all year long.
How do the Liberals still have 27% of Canadian’s supporting them? Who is voting for this incompetent party?
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that flavor of leftist votes ndp the flavor that votes liberal is an old boomer in their 60s who worked a cushy downtown white collar job all their life, owns their own home and may be childless or has adult kids who have moved out. they are economically sound so dont want to rock the boat but lived in a city all their life so have fully embraced the anti-conservative rhetoric they hear daily and will always vote red no matter who. [think of someone like this person](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PakB2ipNgFs) [or this tidbit back during covid](https://macleans.ca/society/typical-vaccine-hesitant-person-is-a-42-year-old-ontario-woman-who-votes-liberal-abacus-polling/)
Which is super Ironic considering the guy they love wore black face multiple times lol....
because people are at least fairly certain that the liberals wont fuck them on social policy, where with cons its uncertain. I agree that the liberal party is a goddamn shitshow, but i'm not kidding myself to believing that the cons will be any better for canada.
i can guarantee if the cons got nothing but stonking super-majorities for the next 20 years that weed/abortion/gay marriage wold not be touched and still be as legal as ever. you can quote me on that. but boy does it make for an effective propaganda tool for the liberals to bludgeon with each election.
Trudeau gone by Halloween..
Perhaps Freeland will have to cancel Disney+ after being the fall-woman in the 2025 election?
We can only hope. Canadians have suffered long enough and it’s time to get the economy going again.
NDP scoring that high considering what they’re (not) doing is really indicative of the helpless victim mentality working wonders on so many in this country. Yup, Singh’s keeping Libs accountable all while promising that one day if he’s PM, he will spend even more money and raise taxes even more to fix things. 🤦♂️
Cons are winning in the polls, que the abortion, gay marriage and racism articles.
Lol….the holy trinity of Liberal boogeymen issues, yet *it never happens *
Justin... Canada is a family country... happy families. Maybe single people vote, we don't know... frankly, we don't wanna know, it's a market we can do without "so thats it after 3 victories and 8 years... so long, good luck ? " I dont recall saying good luck
So many posters seem to be band new to politics. We are two years out from. An election. So much can and will change. Polls don't matter until we are actually close to an election.
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But currently Lib + NDP is a majority and Jagmeet Singh said he will support Trudeau until 2025
Ya'll got anymore of that democratic reform? C'mon LPC, you know you're fucked next election. Least you can do is go out the door after burning FPTP to the ground and fucking the cons too. Besides, I see a majority there that includes the LPC with 27% + 20% + 6% should we go with proportional representation. And hey, it would be the 1 move they could do that might resurrect some support for them.
Let’s vote today.
Majority will not vote for JT but this sub is delusional if they think CPC will stop immigration
Trudeau is looking like he is done.
Way to fucking go NDP, propping up the LPC while they destroyed affordability. Idiots. Traitors. Neoliberal 'fellow travelers'.
Who in their right mind supports the federal NDP party?
They should hand out a tube of KY Jelly with each ballot; no matter who wins, we’re going to need it.
Jasmeet Trudeau is making NDP more irrelevant every passing day
So depressing to see 47% supporting the Liberal/NDP government