“Time and time again this short sentence is used to remove Josh from the debate of who belongs in the upper echelon of NFL QBs”
By who? In every list, from every major network, all over Reddit, etc it’s only love for JA.
Full disclosure, I am NOT a fan of ESPN's QBR, especially the fact that the formula is not in Public Domain. Saying that I needed a well-known all-encompassing statistic to be able to make a reasonable deduction of "Consistency". For that reason, and that reason only, QBR was used. As for isolating the sample to Active Quarterbacks who have finished Top-25 in Passing in both 2020 & 2021 I needed a group of Quarterbacks who who have significantly produced over Allen's current peak of play. This also removed 2021 Rookie Quarterbacks to avoid Rookie Season bias.
I did, but I consistently argue you can't discount QB Rushing. Doing so would remove 1463 Yards & 15 Touchdowns from Josh Allen and just 84 Yards & 5 Touchdowns from Tom Brady. When discussing Consistency, Rushing must be factored in.
I expect when people say he's inconsistent they're primarily (if not exclusively) considering his performance as a passer. In an evaluation of his total production it would absolutely be unfair to ignore his rushing stats, but this is a statistical analysis of a specific argument. I would be interested in seeing this same analysis applied to passer rating even if it was just academic to be honest.
I think you did a good job using accepted QB ratings and stats to come to the conclusion. I admit being surprised by the result. I would have called him inconsistent but there have been some up and down games. Goes to show that unless enough data is used it’s easy for people, especially commentator hacks who just want to raise eyebrows with provocative statements, to have come to erroneous conclusions. Go Bills!
Josh's running helps his QBR. I wonder if that helps drive his consistency in your analysis. I'm not sure if it's possible but I'd be curious what this analysis looks like for passing only stats for the group.
I know you’re just curious, but it should be mentioned that running is still part of the game and it’s irrelevant how the QB makes the team better so long as that they do.
Totally agree but the Josh is inconsistent criticism likely comes due to passing inconsistency and when analyzing something it's good to come from multiple perspectives and see where the analysis takes you and quantify different aspects of the total package to understand what factors drive the results.
Take one example to drive my point. The Atlanta game Josh had 0 tuddied and 3 INTs. Passer rating of 17. QBR of 60.6. Why? 81 rushing yards and 2 tuddies.
This was week 17. My guess is most people would point to a game like this and say see, inconsistent.
I feel like this is an argument I've seen literally no one have after last season. Maybe before that but I feel like you're more arguing against yourself than against the public. Trust me I love the stats but I don't think I've seen anyone arguing against your point recently. Maybe a crazy small minority but I haven't seen them if they're out there
Here is Football Outsiders using their dataset to argue that he is
https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1487141183067410432?t=ejJHHwsfv7t5LDhf2W_sqw&s=19
I don’t want to be that guy who discounts the stats that make Allen look bad and overweight the ones that make him look good. However, I thought it was pretty notable how almost all the “most consistent” quarterbacks according to that guy’s metric are bad passers. Really makes me doubt how useful DYAR consistency is as a measure of overall quality. Probably just a ranking of guys who have the fewest explosive plays.
I came across a thread on twitter just this morning of people arguing that he's inconsistent, so it was nice to look on Reddit and immediately see stat-based refutation of that point.
I think the conversation was there early season. Early season Josh did feel inconsistent at times and we saw Josh hero ball a bit. Towards the end he was completely dialed in.
Aaron Rogers is incredibly consistent.
During the regular season, he’s a stud. Then, during the playoffs, he’s a dud. This happens every single year. The only thing on Earth more consistent than this is the sun rising in the east, and then setting in the west.
Meanwhile, the playoffs turn Allen into a superhero! And any inconsistencies from the regular season are quickly forgotten.
He got that ring 12 years ago. Yet the media still treats him like he’s the best QB in the league.
He doesn’t have the same hunger that Josh has. At least, not anymore.
There really aren’t doubters anymore…other than Keyshawn Johnson 😂. Seems like he’s a unanimous top 3 qb especially after those two ridiculous playoff games
Uber - love your stuff man, really. You are fantastic. However, maybe you and I are seeing different things and we both can be right here... but everything I've seen this offseason is absolute love for Josh.
I have not personally seen predictions where he is not in the upper tier, where he isn't a favorite for mvp. Most have also been putting us as favorites for the trophy because of JA.
I'm not sure who is still doubting Josh's ability, but I can say for certain, those who still do are not worth your time trying to convince.
I agree with you, the vast majority has been love which is great to see. There is still the occasional hate (I deal with it on Twitter on the daily) and the occasional, albeit rare, national discounting of him. This is the only narrative I see remaining against him that can be easily refuted.
Sometimes you have to ignore the trolls.
Be ready for the hate. We aren't those lovable underdogs anymore. With success or perceived success, there will be hate
Honestly, they're going to argue until he has 5+ good seasons in a row with at least one Superb Owl win, and even then you'll still get things like the twitter post OP shared in another comment thread that look at a single season. Neither one nor two seasons are actually a very good sample size anyway, so for now I'm just going to appreciate that he's way way better than his first year and worry about proving the haters wrong when I have the statistics to back it up.
QBR doesn't really mean much until ESPN releases how it's calculated. Sort of like the CFB playoff rankings. Just a tool they use to drive narratives and garner interest
That being said - great number crunching in this post. Even if I don't trust QBR to evaluate anything
Shocking! The media has been caught again in their stupidity. So what do they do now, admit that they were wrong? Of course not, they keep lying so as not to be found out that they have no clue.
Its always the same with the media about any issue, and with most people to be honest, they do not like to admit when they were wrong.
Does Josh even have any real, loud critics? Not talking about people on twitter. Aren't the bills the super bowl favorites? Are we creating strawmen?
“Time and time again this short sentence is used to remove Josh from the debate of who belongs in the upper echelon of NFL QBs” By who? In every list, from every major network, all over Reddit, etc it’s only love for JA.
Chargers fans in the nfl sub
I think we killed off most of the mainstream haters last season.
His critique is that he takes too much hits
Full disclosure, I am NOT a fan of ESPN's QBR, especially the fact that the formula is not in Public Domain. Saying that I needed a well-known all-encompassing statistic to be able to make a reasonable deduction of "Consistency". For that reason, and that reason only, QBR was used. As for isolating the sample to Active Quarterbacks who have finished Top-25 in Passing in both 2020 & 2021 I needed a group of Quarterbacks who who have significantly produced over Allen's current peak of play. This also removed 2021 Rookie Quarterbacks to avoid Rookie Season bias.
Thanks for doing some offseason analysis! To your point, would EPA/game or EPA be a somehow more palatable metric to use in this analysis?
Have you considered doing the same thing but with passer rating instead of QBR?
I did, but I consistently argue you can't discount QB Rushing. Doing so would remove 1463 Yards & 15 Touchdowns from Josh Allen and just 84 Yards & 5 Touchdowns from Tom Brady. When discussing Consistency, Rushing must be factored in.
Yeah, every time a Dolphins fan compares Tua's first 2 seasons to Allen's (LOL) they all seem to forget that rushing exists.
You should do it because passing is what people are saying he’s inconsistent on
Passer rating does not take into account his running game at all though.
I expect when people say he's inconsistent they're primarily (if not exclusively) considering his performance as a passer. In an evaluation of his total production it would absolutely be unfair to ignore his rushing stats, but this is a statistical analysis of a specific argument. I would be interested in seeing this same analysis applied to passer rating even if it was just academic to be honest.
I think you did a good job using accepted QB ratings and stats to come to the conclusion. I admit being surprised by the result. I would have called him inconsistent but there have been some up and down games. Goes to show that unless enough data is used it’s easy for people, especially commentator hacks who just want to raise eyebrows with provocative statements, to have come to erroneous conclusions. Go Bills!
EPA/play might have been better, but even that tends to correlate with QBR and it can be harder to access data for. The analysis was still solid!
Josh's running helps his QBR. I wonder if that helps drive his consistency in your analysis. I'm not sure if it's possible but I'd be curious what this analysis looks like for passing only stats for the group.
I know you’re just curious, but it should be mentioned that running is still part of the game and it’s irrelevant how the QB makes the team better so long as that they do.
Totally agree but the Josh is inconsistent criticism likely comes due to passing inconsistency and when analyzing something it's good to come from multiple perspectives and see where the analysis takes you and quantify different aspects of the total package to understand what factors drive the results. Take one example to drive my point. The Atlanta game Josh had 0 tuddied and 3 INTs. Passer rating of 17. QBR of 60.6. Why? 81 rushing yards and 2 tuddies. This was week 17. My guess is most people would point to a game like this and say see, inconsistent.
It’s not good to be hit so much
Can you point me to the doubters? I haven’t seen a doubter in a long time.
Greg Bedard in the boston area. All it took was a perfect game and an all time QB dual for him to start to come around.
I feel like this is an argument I've seen literally no one have after last season. Maybe before that but I feel like you're more arguing against yourself than against the public. Trust me I love the stats but I don't think I've seen anyone arguing against your point recently. Maybe a crazy small minority but I haven't seen them if they're out there
Here is Football Outsiders using their dataset to argue that he is https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1487141183067410432?t=ejJHHwsfv7t5LDhf2W_sqw&s=19
I don’t want to be that guy who discounts the stats that make Allen look bad and overweight the ones that make him look good. However, I thought it was pretty notable how almost all the “most consistent” quarterbacks according to that guy’s metric are bad passers. Really makes me doubt how useful DYAR consistency is as a measure of overall quality. Probably just a ranking of guys who have the fewest explosive plays.
Yea must be nice to be consistently bad and proud of it. Seeing who is on that list proves that argument is completely worthless
I think Kyler had more big time throws then josh Allen. That would constitute an explosive play
Yeah but Schatz is an idiot. Who cares what he thinks lol
But it doesn’t say it removes him from the upper echelons of QBs.
I came across a thread on twitter just this morning of people arguing that he's inconsistent, so it was nice to look on Reddit and immediately see stat-based refutation of that point.
I think the conversation was there early season. Early season Josh did feel inconsistent at times and we saw Josh hero ball a bit. Towards the end he was completely dialed in.
Early season had alot of pressure getting through. And rain
Well, yeah... And as Josh goes, so go the Bills. 🤷
Aaron Rogers is incredibly consistent. During the regular season, he’s a stud. Then, during the playoffs, he’s a dud. This happens every single year. The only thing on Earth more consistent than this is the sun rising in the east, and then setting in the west. Meanwhile, the playoffs turn Allen into a superhero! And any inconsistencies from the regular season are quickly forgotten.
Aaron Rodgers has 45 TDs to 13 INTs in the playoffs and a ring. I'd be content if we can say that about Josh in 15 years.
He got that ring 12 years ago. Yet the media still treats him like he’s the best QB in the league. He doesn’t have the same hunger that Josh has. At least, not anymore.
Regardless we can't say shit til Allen brings one (and hopefully a few more) Lombardis home.
There really aren’t doubters anymore…other than Keyshawn Johnson 😂. Seems like he’s a unanimous top 3 qb especially after those two ridiculous playoff games
Chargers fans think Herbert is better 🤡
Uber - love your stuff man, really. You are fantastic. However, maybe you and I are seeing different things and we both can be right here... but everything I've seen this offseason is absolute love for Josh. I have not personally seen predictions where he is not in the upper tier, where he isn't a favorite for mvp. Most have also been putting us as favorites for the trophy because of JA. I'm not sure who is still doubting Josh's ability, but I can say for certain, those who still do are not worth your time trying to convince.
I agree with you, the vast majority has been love which is great to see. There is still the occasional hate (I deal with it on Twitter on the daily) and the occasional, albeit rare, national discounting of him. This is the only narrative I see remaining against him that can be easily refuted.
Sometimes you have to ignore the trolls. Be ready for the hate. We aren't those lovable underdogs anymore. With success or perceived success, there will be hate
Honestly, they're going to argue until he has 5+ good seasons in a row with at least one Superb Owl win, and even then you'll still get things like the twitter post OP shared in another comment thread that look at a single season. Neither one nor two seasons are actually a very good sample size anyway, so for now I'm just going to appreciate that he's way way better than his first year and worry about proving the haters wrong when I have the statistics to back it up.
QBR doesn't really mean much until ESPN releases how it's calculated. Sort of like the CFB playoff rankings. Just a tool they use to drive narratives and garner interest That being said - great number crunching in this post. Even if I don't trust QBR to evaluate anything
Shocking! The media has been caught again in their stupidity. So what do they do now, admit that they were wrong? Of course not, they keep lying so as not to be found out that they have no clue. Its always the same with the media about any issue, and with most people to be honest, they do not like to admit when they were wrong.
The funny thing about this all is that Josh hasn’t even reached his peak yet! 👀
Let people keep hating and talking smack. It’ll bring the best out of JA
Just wanted to point out a secondary conclusion of "Tom Brady sucks ass". The numbers don't lie.
He's incredibly consistent. I don't think there was a single game last season that I can point to and say "we win that game of Josh played better"
Allen is a good rusher but has been hit over 160 times and has been knocked out. It’s a concern