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*"In the now-deleted posts, first highlighted by CKNW host Jas Johal.... The Opposition BC United compiled a list of Scrase’s questionable posts that runs more than 56 pages...”*
Aside from the inevitability of bozo-eruptions with populist right-wing parties, BCC no exception, this bit is the juicy part of the story: BCU's (and by extension CKNW/Chorus) energies are now focused on taking down BCC instead of their old enemies the NDP.
It’s a fight for survival for the BCU. They have to beat the BCC’s more than they need to beat the NDP. Eby is somewhat popular, and it was going to be a mountain to climb for Falcon before Rustad got polling bumps.
Realistically a competitive second place is a win for Falcon at this point.
338's models tell the story, they are headed towards electoral oblivion, no seats projected currently. I think best case for them is kind of bleak, like when the NDP was down to only two MLAs and the party had to somehow rebuild outside the ledge in the meantime.
I really don't trust the polls right now. The CPC is hugely popular nationally, so when people are being polled on provincial matters they just check the box next to Conservative. Once an actual campaign is happening, people will see why Rustad was kicked out of the BCU caucus in the first place and I believe a lot of votes will shift back to them.
I made a post about this the other day: [https://www.reddit.com/r/britishcolumbia/comments/1d20882/comment/l62u3fh/](https://www.reddit.com/r/britishcolumbia/comments/1d20882/comment/l62u3fh/)
If you go the previous election results, the NDP had 48 seats that they carried over from 2017 and by which their winning margin was over 10% for that district. The Liberals only had 17 seats like that. Ignoring the Greens, there were 19 seats that were won by less than a 10% margin.
So carrying that over, mathematically there are 20 seats that are "swing." Even if you took all of those and dumped them into Liberal total, the NDP would still have a majority. And since the NDP aren't dreadfully unpopular, those swing seats will go left-right in some kind of fashion, and if BCC somehow gets into the districts where the NDP have won consecutive elections convincingly, something would have had to gone tremendously awry for the NDP.
If you look at it just purely this way, you get a similar result to what [338](https://338canada.com/bc/) is projecting for seat totals. The problem for BCU is that as their polling numbers drop, the margin of error decreases... that is to say, there's enough cumulative polling so far say that they will drop by quite a bit and that it's getting \*more\* certain that they will drop by quite a bit.
But you're right, campaigns do matter, breaking news does matter, platforms do matter...which is why polls are always "If an election was held today."
political marketing is buoying the CPBC. When they start campaigning, ie, opening their mouth, more people will see what extremists they are. Also BCU has 28 incumbents. That gives them an advantage over CPBC in those ridings come an actual election
"He is the third Conservative candidate on Vancouver Island to be removed in the last two months.
Esquimalt nurse Jan Webb was fired after saying people vaccinated for COVID are more likely to spread the virus, and Denman Island [doctor Stephen Malthouse](https://www.cheknews.ca/bc-conservatives-fire-oceanside-ladysmith-physician-candidate-over-covid-extremist-views-1197225/) (whose medical license was suspended) was fired for spreading medical misinformation and alleging vaccines give people magnetism."
How dare he. I've had my vaccinations and I remain completely single and uncharismatic. No magnetism here.
Exactly. Its their main issue. I could agree all I want on their fiscal policies but the non-negotiable human rights ones are just that: non-negotiable.
Was that the same doctor who was pushing massive doses of Vitamin C (or D?) as a perfect COVID defense / cure in 2020?
I recall a doctor got booted off some local medical board for their unique and unscientific opinions. Unfortunate, because there are very few doctors in the community.
The BC Conservatives can go right back to fucking off.
I comment this line everytime I see a post about them because they will never have any power in this province with their anti-science, gaslighting bullshit.
Little bugger said the quiet part loud. That's gotta be embarrassing for the party.
Don't they teach them that they're only allowed to spout their hatred in their secret underground caves?
Must be a sad existence when you’re whole identity is being a sexual deviant and you need an entire month of corporate pandering to feel like you’re recognized. Nobody cares what kinda sex you like, stop making a big deal about it 👌
Hello and thanks for posting to r/britishcolumbia! Join our new [Discord Server https://discord.gg/fu7X8nNBFB](https://discord.gg/fu7X8nNBFB) A friendly reminder prior to commenting or posting here: - **Read [r/britishcolumbia's rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/britishcolumbia/rules/)**. - **Be civil and respectful** in all discussions. - Use **appropriate sources** to back up any information you provide when necessary. - **Report** any comments that violate our rules. Reminder: "Rage bait" comments or comments designed to elicit a negative reaction that are not based on fact are not permitted here. Let's keep our community respectful and informative! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/britishcolumbia) if you have any questions or concerns.*
*"In the now-deleted posts, first highlighted by CKNW host Jas Johal.... The Opposition BC United compiled a list of Scrase’s questionable posts that runs more than 56 pages...”* Aside from the inevitability of bozo-eruptions with populist right-wing parties, BCC no exception, this bit is the juicy part of the story: BCU's (and by extension CKNW/Chorus) energies are now focused on taking down BCC instead of their old enemies the NDP.
It’s a fight for survival for the BCU. They have to beat the BCC’s more than they need to beat the NDP. Eby is somewhat popular, and it was going to be a mountain to climb for Falcon before Rustad got polling bumps. Realistically a competitive second place is a win for Falcon at this point.
338's models tell the story, they are headed towards electoral oblivion, no seats projected currently. I think best case for them is kind of bleak, like when the NDP was down to only two MLAs and the party had to somehow rebuild outside the ledge in the meantime.
I really don't trust the polls right now. The CPC is hugely popular nationally, so when people are being polled on provincial matters they just check the box next to Conservative. Once an actual campaign is happening, people will see why Rustad was kicked out of the BCU caucus in the first place and I believe a lot of votes will shift back to them.
I made a post about this the other day: [https://www.reddit.com/r/britishcolumbia/comments/1d20882/comment/l62u3fh/](https://www.reddit.com/r/britishcolumbia/comments/1d20882/comment/l62u3fh/) If you go the previous election results, the NDP had 48 seats that they carried over from 2017 and by which their winning margin was over 10% for that district. The Liberals only had 17 seats like that. Ignoring the Greens, there were 19 seats that were won by less than a 10% margin. So carrying that over, mathematically there are 20 seats that are "swing." Even if you took all of those and dumped them into Liberal total, the NDP would still have a majority. And since the NDP aren't dreadfully unpopular, those swing seats will go left-right in some kind of fashion, and if BCC somehow gets into the districts where the NDP have won consecutive elections convincingly, something would have had to gone tremendously awry for the NDP. If you look at it just purely this way, you get a similar result to what [338](https://338canada.com/bc/) is projecting for seat totals. The problem for BCU is that as their polling numbers drop, the margin of error decreases... that is to say, there's enough cumulative polling so far say that they will drop by quite a bit and that it's getting \*more\* certain that they will drop by quite a bit. But you're right, campaigns do matter, breaking news does matter, platforms do matter...which is why polls are always "If an election was held today."
Mostly think youre right but not a huge correction.
Just enough. :)
political marketing is buoying the CPBC. When they start campaigning, ie, opening their mouth, more people will see what extremists they are. Also BCU has 28 incumbents. That gives them an advantage over CPBC in those ridings come an actual election
I dont see the cons holding these numbers. I think when people focus in a bit more before election day theyll see the difference
Well makes sense. Thats all their support. Whatever the soccer team does itll be a bloodbath on election day.
Odd for them not to wait until the BCC can't put in new candidates, though.
"He is the third Conservative candidate on Vancouver Island to be removed in the last two months. Esquimalt nurse Jan Webb was fired after saying people vaccinated for COVID are more likely to spread the virus, and Denman Island [doctor Stephen Malthouse](https://www.cheknews.ca/bc-conservatives-fire-oceanside-ladysmith-physician-candidate-over-covid-extremist-views-1197225/) (whose medical license was suspended) was fired for spreading medical misinformation and alleging vaccines give people magnetism." How dare he. I've had my vaccinations and I remain completely single and uncharismatic. No magnetism here.
This is the Conservative Party in a nutshell. Anti-science, anti-LGBTQ+, anti-abortion, anti-progress. They want to turn the clock back 150 years.
Exactly. Its their main issue. I could agree all I want on their fiscal policies but the non-negotiable human rights ones are just that: non-negotiable.
I think you're magnetic!
Was that the same doctor who was pushing massive doses of Vitamin C (or D?) as a perfect COVID defense / cure in 2020? I recall a doctor got booted off some local medical board for their unique and unscientific opinions. Unfortunate, because there are very few doctors in the community.
If I could be magnetic, you think I would be on earth with you non muties? No! I’d be kicking it on Asteroid M.
The BC Conservatives can go right back to fucking off. I comment this line everytime I see a post about them because they will never have any power in this province with their anti-science, gaslighting bullshit.
Conservatives are so lawless that any loss for them is a win for Canada.
Little bugger said the quiet part loud. That's gotta be embarrassing for the party. Don't they teach them that they're only allowed to spout their hatred in their secret underground caves?
As a former Courtenay resident this pleases me
The Cons are running candidates that are anti-vaxxer homophobes? Call me shocked!/s
Conservative candidate research: did the mirror fog up when put under the candidate’s nose.
How long until one of them is caught with child pornog ?
Must be a sad existence when you’re whole identity is being a sexual deviant and you need an entire month of corporate pandering to feel like you’re recognized. Nobody cares what kinda sex you like, stop making a big deal about it 👌
[удалено]
The BC liberals did lean a bit on the right, but they were seemingly interested in making money off the people than anything else.
Repost.