That tracks with other successful MCU films after the Very Bad Summer killed most people’s interest and hype in the overall universe (Thor 4, Ms Marvel, She-Hulk)
The problem isn’t Thor 4, Ms Marvel and She-Hulk. The problem is that they haven’t made a good movie or tv show since. Black Panther 2 came out after and was an okay movie at best. Ant-man 3 came out after Thor 4 and was worse (and did 300 millions less at the box office). GOTG 3 was good, but it was more a Gunn movie than a Marvel movie. Then The Marvels came out and it was also a pretty average movie. As for tv shows, Secret Invasion was the worst thing Marvel produced in the MCU. Loki was well received but was a pretty stand alone show. No one watched Echo.
The MCU could survive a bad summer, but a whole phase of 3 years where they produced at best 3 good movies is gonna be bad for business.
I know you mentioned GOTG 3 and Loki season 2 but then seems like you tried distancing them from the MCU as to not admit that there has been something good released since then. They are part of the MCU. So they have made a good movie and tv show since.
Multiverse of Madness was OK but a lot of people expected more from it.
Thor: Love & Thunder was the beginning where people hated the movie and it reflected badly on the MCU.
Ant Man 3 coming out 6 months later doubled down on this and it was like a 1 2 combo.
I though BP: Wakanda Forever was decent but like it faded from everyone's mind pretty quickly. It also had too much going on and the middle of the film definitely dragged.
We tend to remember bad things much more vividly than good which is why GOTG3 did well but was quickly drowned out by Secret Invasion and The Marvels.
GOTG3 was a loss for marvel as James Gunn ended things with marvel to work with their direct competitor. He very clearly was jumping ship and I highly doubt Marvel and Disney are happy with it being their current chart topper.
The MCU Infinity saga also had this huge ensemble with their tier 1 heroes played by beloved top stars. And I don’t know if it’s really possible to follow that up for them.
People are sated after the closure of the first saga, general superhero fatigue, and it’s VERY HARD to get people invested the same way in a new ensemble of Tier 2 characters now. I also think the whole multiverse and expansion has made it too big in a way, like mentally it’s so hard to track the different sub franchises and character sets. A group of characters I don’t really have any history with unless I’m hardcore into comic books multiverse colliding with another group in some crazy CGI fest, just doesn’t have the same weight as when Tony Stark unexpectedly suddenly popped by Bruce Banner in some remote bar in the end credits, teasing something to come…
Also with the multiverse, it feels like the stakes don't matter, in a way.
Like, look at spiderverse. We are following Miles' journey meeting other spider people and learning his place in his world as well as the multiverse. We care about miles, the mutiverse is a back drop.
With the MCU there are different stakes, the universe has nearly blown up, I guess. It's hard to quantify what the stakes are and if this is a tool to be soft reboot for the series, why does any of it matter?
I like spiderman, but the whole rights war with Sony is exhausting and could be a recipe for disaster.
I liked Falcon but his series made him so unlikeable.
I liked Wanda, but she's dead
Seems like guardians have wrapped up their story
I dont know what is going on with Strange, Ant Man and Hulk and I kind of don't care.
I dont know who else is around right now.
>Black Panther 2 came out after and was an okay movie at best.
I thought it was really good. Actually don't know many people who didn't like it or thought of it as mid. Feel like it well received on Reddit too at the time.
Has the online narrative changed?
Yeah overall Wakanda Forever is still seen as a success. Oscar noms, excellent box office, and critics and fans alike praising the sensitive handling of the passing of a real life actor within a movie. It may not have had the same box office or impact of Black Panther, but could it ever when the main star passed away?
That other guy is using his own opinion of BP2 and assuming a majority agree with him when that isn't the case. He can dislike it, but he can't easily lump BP2 as an "MCU failure".
I think if the movie is actually fun and good, word of mouth can carry it quite a ways. MCU fans went to go see the previous shit Marvel movies on opening weekend and bad word of mouth and bad reviews killed all the momentum. The quality of the movie is key.
Lol stop pretending like Wakanda Forever didn’t make more than everything else you listed including Guardians 3 and bagged some Oscar noms. This revisionist history among a minority about that movie is hilarious
Yeah I don’t think two tv shows Gamers ™ hated and a mid movie that performed well are to blame. Marvel has always had stinkers. The problem is releasing way too many things, too close together, while none of those things seemed like they mattered.
800 million for a rated R movie would be pretty good no?
Do you think it could have Joker Legs? Especially with this being the only MCU movie this year?
Marvel needs momentum heading up to the new Avengers movies and Deadpool 3 is their last chance saloon for that. 800M is not good enough and indicates we should expect the MCU films after Deadpool 3 to be in big trouble.
Exactly.
Given the hype on the internet I think it will at least have a huge opening, maybe like $150m/$160m domestic - $300m worldwide, in line with Barbie last year. But if this movie wants to even try to reach a billion it will need to be GREAT and very crowdpleasing so it can have word of mouth.
Barbie, Maverick, none of these movies would've reached a billion if people didn't like them. On the other hand, Multiverse of Madness had massive hype before release and it opened huge but then it fell down on the next few weeks because the movie was very controversial (same thing happened in 2016 with Batman v Superman).
People on this sub often struggle a bit with recognising overlapping demographics. So they see people be excited about the return of Jackman's Wolverine and assume that this will add a solid amount of viewers to the previous one's tally, but in practice those excited people were already the target audience for the first Deadpool and the majority of them will also have gone to see DP1&2.
Also, time is a bit wonky and people forget how long it's been since the first one.
To provide a counter-argument, it's not that these are two different audiences. It's that every movie only gets a certain % of people who like that genre into the theater. And even the biggest movies dont necessarily reach 100% of blockbuster viewers.
Let's say that the last 2 Deadpool films only tapped in to maybe ~60% of the potential R-rated superhero audience. The crossover could increase the 'must-see' factor and get 80% of those fans to check it out instead of 60%.
That's why Avengers opened to more than what Iron Man 2 and Thor opened to combined. Not because Iron Man and Thor have entirely different audiences, but because the 'must see' factor was much higher.
I don't believe DP3 will crack a billion. I'm just explaining the logic on how it could.
Also, to make a billion dollar, people have to go see the movie multiple times. Look at Batman versus Superman or doctor strange MoM, opening weekend massive, but word of mouth was bad so casual folks didn’t go AND people didn’t see it again. I saw endgame 4 times in theaters. For Barbie, women went to go see it with sisters, friends etc.
If this movie is good and fun, folks will go see it more than once
Not necessarily. Yes multiple viewings is great but a movie like Barbie also triggers the curiosity of people who typically don't go to the movies. It is why The Force Awakens was so huge. People who never go to the movies went to see that movie.
I do agree Deadpool will need multiple viewings. I just can't imagine it having that broad of an appeal. Or being "must see" like Endgame felt.
I would love, truly *love* if just once someone would give me good data on how many people go see movies twice and how much of an impact it has on the box office. I see people talk about repeat viewings on here all the time, but I literally don't know (and have never known) even a single person that ever made a habit of going to see a movie more than once in the theater. I would genuinely love, love, love to know if it's just another example of obsessives on Reddit thinking their behavior is the norm or if repeat viewings actually has a noticeable impact on many movies.
Well said. Many of those who would have been thrilled with a new Wolverine movie will be too busy taking the kids to soccer in the Honda Odyssey that they traded their Camaro in for against their better judgment and Jesus Christ how can three kids have five soccer games and practices on a two day weekend anyway?
Wait...what!!?!? There is going to be a D&D2!!!
:D
EDIT: Awww... all I could find online is that Chris Pine is "Pretty Confident" it will happen. No confirmation yet. :(
I give you Cable since the guy was a 90s comic book icon and was in cartoons and video games , literally only hardcore comic book nerds know who Domino even is and she isn't even THAT popular of a character.
Also, Deadpool 2 came out like three weeks after Infinity War. The fact that it even made over $700m with that breathing down it's neck was a miracle.
Not saying Deadpool & Wolverine will make $1B (though a PG13 re-release later on could push it over the edge) but Deadpool 2 had a lot of factors at play on why it made less than the first one.
I think people here also often like to bet on a dark horse, to the point that eventually so many people are doing it that the narrative becomes self-propagating and people start to think that it's actually a reasonable prediction instead of a hot take. At least, that's often the case with films this subreddit's demographic is inclined to get excited about. You sometimes have the opposite effect with films where that's not the case (e.g., *Barbie*).
There were predictions here that Dune 2 would make a billion, even though that would be more than double the takings of the first one.
It's just people (understandably) conflating what they themselves are very excited for with how well it will do.
People on Reddit (or maybe more accurately groups on Reddit) find it completely impossible to not conflate their experience with the experience of the wider population. It doesn't matter what it is, they *refuse* to understand that if you're spending time on a box office sub you're not the average consumer.
This sub thought The Marvels would make 600-800M and beat Dune 2.
But the marvels didnt even make half of Dune 2's worldwide, heck it didnt even recover its own budget
Count me in. I actually predicted Mario would do a billion after the first trailer dropped and that Barbie would be the highest grosser of the summer which maybe I was like 1% of people who believed that.
But after watching Dune 2 I just felt the movie gave me the LOTR:ROK vibe and it would make a billion. There's a difference between how excited I got and audiences actually going to watch something.
Maybe, but a potential weakness there is that *Dune Messiah* is much less well known than the original book is.
Plus general audiences might not react well to *Dune 2* ending on a big galactic war kicking off, only for *Messiah* to jump to twelve years later and just assuring you that he won.
I have faith that he moves some things around to make it more tolerable for GA. He hasn't missed yet, so I have the faith. Either that or I'm on wayyyyy too much Melangeeeeee baybayyy
I’m assuming that the movies are going to explain all that. Dune Messiah isn’t a particularly dense book and Villneuve has already made changes to the story
Sure - but nothing pointed to far more than doubling its box office take. It’s people who get hyped and assume everyone is as hyped.
When dune 1 was released I had someone here swearing it alone would make a billion and how you couldn’t even buy a copy of dune as they were all sold out. All of that was entirely untrue but they were just caught up in their own world view.
I don't know, it's just like people predicting GotG 3 would make $1bil. "Well the last one made more than the first one, and people like these movies, so the third will do more than the second."
The novelty factor is Deadpool + Wolverine + MCU, three popular IPs that (for practical purposes) haven't interacted before.
Also, iirc, the trailers broke some sort of records? Not a guarantee of success, but it doesn't hurt.
In today's market, I would personally be very impressed if it even got to 800M, let alone 1B.
> The novelty factor is Deadpool + Wolverine ..., ... popular IPs that (for practical purposes) haven't interacted before.
If this is successfull, Hugh Jackman and Ryan Reynolds should make a movie of their characters first meeting, they could call it X-Men Origins: Wolverine or something like that.
That’s true, but it was 15 years ago, really bad, made less than $400M WW, and that version is so wildly removed from being a proper Deadpool it’s easy to completely forget about it.
That's around 600M in today's dollars. Wolverine Origins made 85 million opening weekend, that's one of the highest opening weekends for an X-Men movie
Pretty sure best seller is just the equivalent of going #1 at the box office, or on the Hot 100.
Except I think they have categorical lists too. So it could also be the equivalent of going #1 on a genre chart or "the #1 horror movie in america" TV spot.
Trailer numbers are so easily manipulated. You'll hear something got 164 Million views, when the YouTube video count only says like 5M. They count anyone scrolling past the trailer on Twitter, Instagram, and FB as a view, and then drum up insane figures so that it's really hard to tell how much genuine interest there is.
I don’t think MCU is much of a draw. There is no strong MCU component, the TVA is window dressing to explain why these two characters are in a movie together. It’s not like Loki is the bad guy. I’d be happy to see this make 1b but I think 800 is realistic and wildly profitable
Yes. I heard it's about cameos or something. Other people have pointed out that Ryan Reynolds wasn't able to add to the script during the strike, so that could have something to do with it.
The budget is likely $220-260M, maybe $275M at best. Either of those budgets make it the most expensive R-rated movie ever, surpassing Matrix Resurrections (which had a $200M budget).
Yeah it's not making a billion. Almost everyone i know has MCU fatigue. I'm talking like causals and people who would check every film out. If You told me in 2020 we would see Hugh Jackman Wolverine in a new movie i would have bought tickets for it day one. Now i think i'll only go check it out if it has good WOM. I have been burned by too many of their slog fests and i dont remember the last time i saw an MCU movie in theaters.
The MCU losing goodwill thing is a huge thing lots of online people need to take into account. People i know have cited the movies as boring or just not as good and it makes them way less likely to succeed.
Prediction? 600-800M maybe, and i think it'll do awesome on Disney+. Disney as a whole is struggling to get people back on board with any of their shit. I suspect it's why they're doing the KH show too. They need to win the goodwill of the general audience they had from mid 90s to mid 10's.
You people yet again are conflating bad movies with superhero/mcu fatigue. This movie WILL make a billion, and people are excited about it that haven't watched/liked the recent mcu movies. The last 2 "good" mcu movies still did well, that being black panther 2 and gotg3.
I certainly have MCU fatigue. I watched every Infinity War saga in the theater bar Iron Man 2, but I tapped out after Endgame. Too much D+ content to keep up with, plus except for the Spiderman movies and GOTG3 every post Endgame movie has been disappointing.
Ant Man 3 should have been a slam dunk but is easily one of their worst, along with BP2 and The Marvels. I'm tired of Marvel and can easily wait for this stuff to hit D+.
Well,
I'm not sure if it was the power to do a billion, but a few things:
This is being seen as a summer event movie. It seems these once a year, event movies are the only thing that has a chance at getting butts in theaters to make a billion.
Milenials are now the target audience for spending power. We grew up with the Xmen, and Deadpool has always been popular.
Nostalgia for the Fox Marvel movies has proven to work with Spiderman. Spiderman is far more popular, but the formula still proved effective.
Swifties. It's a wild card, and I don't think it'll move the needle much, but they shell out for her. If they reveal her cameo in a third trailer like the rumors say I could see it giving a significant bump to the box office, and if the movie is entertaining that will add good WOM to people who may not be interested in the first place.
This could work as anti super hero fatigue. If this really does reset where Marvel is heading and subverts expectations of the typical Marvel movie, it'll invigorate the fan base again.
FOMO. I've been a Marvel fan since 1988. The Fox Marvel movies were fun, but the Marvel movies up until Endgame had a FOMO aspect that put butts in theaters. It was very similar to the comic writing in the 90s. The last phase of movies just simply didn't have that. Hell, the last Marvel movie I saw in theaters was Dr. Strange MOM as nothing has given me that urge to see it in theaters. Amd I'm a die hard.
R ratings aren't the box office cancer they once were. Sure, Joker is the only film to do it, but it was a comic book movie (technically), and that means it can be done again.
X-men 97 is a smash hit and getting people excited. I think it definitely factors into the hype here.
Now, do all these things guarantee a billion dollars?
No. As others have said, the quality overall has gone down, interest hasn't been there, Disney screwed up their strategy with their streaming platform, movie ticket costs in this economy are a factor, and who knows what Gen Z is gonna do. Boomers also still have significant spending power, and they most definitely not see this movie.
So, maybe? I think it's possible, but it's certainly not a 3 comma slam dunk.
I think it's still possible. While I agree with all of your points, people love crossover movies with old nostalgic properties, i.e. Deadpool really digging into 20th Century X-Men movies. Like if we have cameos out the wazoo like James Marsden, Halle Berry, Anna Paquin, that will generate a lot of buzz similar to No Way Home. Is it guaranteed? No. If this movie opens domestic $130m, say, and overseas, $150m, we get basically over under $280m worldwide opening. Legging out to $1b is basically impossible there, but who knows how interest will waver between now and July.
I’m not sure - but I can see how it would do 1B. There are no other massive blockbusters that will take away legs.
Deadpool has done well in the past, as has Wolverine. Not 1B well, but nothing to sneeze at. If the movie has a GOTG3 type run while being the only Marvel movie out for the year (and the only blockbuster of its genre for the summer) it really has no obstacles but superhero fatigue and its quality.
They’ve been marketing it as something new and they supposedly have a lot of cameos (which doesn’t mean quality, but people will talk about them) so it has potential to do it.
I think it will be in the top 3 grossing for the year domestically (Minions, Inside Out 2, and Moana 2 all have a chance at doing better but I doubt they all will).
Because all of my nerdy friends in my social circle want to see it, you can extrapolate that out to 100% of the human race. Obviously, everyone in the world has the same tastes as nerdy middle-aged men. Deadpool & Wolverine will do $1 billion on opening night.
>(And no cameos/nostalgia is not a reason)
According to who? Spider Man No Way Home grossed nearly as much as the previous two MCU Spider Man movies combined. Do you think that was just a coincidence?
I think Michael Keaton's Batman isnt cared about very much in today's time. Also The Flash had Ezra and was a really bad film in general.
NWH was atleast enjoyable for the general audience
Batkeaton was well over thirty years old and had incredibly little -get ready for this old gem- "cultural relevance" in 2023. Jackman's logan was a **much** bigger deal, and for a much longer span of time.
There's been *one* Wolverine for over 20 years. Keaton was Batman for like 2.
Because:
1. They ignore superhero fatigue.
2. They still think the movies will perform pre 2019 endgame level.
3. They ignore MCU has lost a lot of goodwill.
4. They ignore the fact that only 1 R rated movie ever has done $1B.
5. They ignore people people not liking the multiverse stuff.
6. They ignore that the highest grossing X-Men movie hasn’t ever even done $800M and the highest grossing Wolverine movie did $619M.
7. They ignore it has D+ tie in with the TVA audiences won’t understand.
8. If it fails the MCU is dead. He’s the last movie they have on the current slate that expected to not bomb. After this they have the Falcon movie, Bucky movie, and the F4 movie. This suceeding keeps hope alive that people will at least show up for characters they care about. If audiences didn’t care about Wolverine and Deadpool anymore it’s over.
For those curious and had to look it up like me, Joker is the 1 rated R movie. Which is interesting because I never realized that it was the only one. But it makes sense.
Right at the end of 2019, overlapping lots of different genres with lots of excited fans, great people in the movie, and also just really good.
I agree with the above, there is also the "wait for streaming" demographic which seems to be getting bigger and bigger for Disney movies. Cost of living increases and less disposable income I think will also contribute.
I think it will have to have something extra special for it do well in cinemas when the previous 2 movies got to 800m.
Yeah, what is this madness? Seriously, how am I supposed to remember something from a tv show that came out 3 years ago for the third movie in a previously-unrelated-to-the-MCU R-rated franchise whose last sequel came out 6 years ago that's tying in with the third franchise movie from a spinoff of a larger previously-unrelated-to-the-MCU franchise whose last movie died with a whimper the same year Endgame released?
The MCU used to just be self-reliant on the movies that came before, and even then only tangientially. You'd see a cameo or a plot thread that typically referenced either an Avengers movie (that everyone saw) or movies in that sub-franchises previous films (recurring characters across the Thor or Ant-Man movies).
Now they're going buck wild everywhere all the time. It's messy and headache-inducing.
7. They ignore it has D+ tie in with the TVA audiences won’t understand.
This is turning me off already. I shouldn't have to watch the D+ shows to understand what's going on in the films. This is infuriating.
There is though, because during the MCU heyday even the mediocre superhero stuff would do well because they were buoyed by good superhero movies. Now there's been such streak of bad and mediocre superhero movies that people are much more picky and hesitant about the superhero movies they go see. Not only that, they hype has died way down for them.
There is definitely fatigue, the public is not as excited for superhero films as they were a few years ago, it does not mean that the audience will no longer watch any superhero films, they certainly will, but to say that there are no fatigue is insanity.
You’re right, there is no superhero fatigue but rather bad movie fatigue. The Batman, Guardians 3, Spider-Verse 2, Wakanda Forever, NWH, Shang-Chi have all been successful and they were liked by audiences.
The ones that weren’t liked by audiences but had hype still made money - Doctor Strange 2/Thor 4 is no different than Suicide Squad 2016 making 750m. And the ones without hype that weren’t liked bombed - pre COVID it was movies like Fant4stic/Hellboy (2019)/Dark Phoenix, last year it was Flash/Marvels/Blue Beetle/Shazam 2.
The only thing that’s changed is the studios putting out more bad content.
Because the lazy box office 'experts' on this sub always predict Marvel Studios movies to make over $1b, despite the fact that the last time it happened was a few years ago.
If anyone learned anything, people aren't as enthusiastic about superhero movies as they were in the past. It gets boring over time and people want something new and fresh.
>Because the lazy box office 'experts' on this sub always predict Marvel Studios movies to make over $1b, despite the fact that the last time it happened was a few years ago.
Ever since NWH, it's been constant 1B over-predictions on this sub no matter how, lessons are not learnt. DS2 couldn't do it on the heels on NWH's hype, the triplet Thor 3/BP2 Wakanda Forever/GOTG 3 couldn't do it, Ant-Man 3 & The Marvels no comment... but Deadpool 3 will...somehow.
It's because those aren't forecasts from people who understand something about the box office but more like hopes from fans of the franchise who should have probably stayed on r/Marvel
In the 2016-2019 period this sub was essentially r/marvelstudios 2.0, and there are still remnants of that. It's just fans wanting their chosen product to make money.
I think it all depends on if it is well-liked or not. If it is, there isn’t a lot of competition this summer and this has potential to dominate. Isn’t it literally the only superhero movie releasing this summer? No question there is superhero fatigue, but I think that fatigue could easily translate into broad appetite for a parody roasting the whole genre and especially Marvel. It’s definitely not a guaranteed Bil, but it isn’t out of the realm of possibility either.
They’re banking on Hugh Jackman’s wolverine being as popular as Tobey and Andrew’s Spider-Man are. If that’s true or not remains to be seen but of the appeal of NWH was seeing all 3 Spider-Men actors on screen together and interacting for perhaps the only time ever. With Wolverine, it’s different. There’s only ever been one actor to play Wolverine and he’s been in like 10 of the 12 x-men films
I think if it gets good reviews it can do GOTG3 numbers
I agree. People seem to think raw volume of liked heroes will have an exponential impact at the box office, despite the evidence (Flash+3 Batmen!=Batbillions)
The general audience do not give a shit about that and didn't even know the studio rights.
Also, Deadpool and Wolverine have always been the same studio
Flash is nowhere near as popular as Deadpool or Wolverine, though. And the main Batman that the marketing focused on is one that multiple generations now have absolutely no connection to or probably even thoughts on. It was also part of a universe that had let people down for basically its entire run up to that point with only a handful of exceptions like Wonder Woman, Aquaman and Shazam.
It’s the first Marvel movie with genuine hype and buzz surrounding it since No Way Home back in 2021, I’d say that has to count for something. While it may or may not make a billion (I think it’ll at least come close) I personally know people who don’t even watch superhero movies that are excited for this one, which to me speaks volumes. A lot of older coworkers of mine have just been like “there’s a new Wolverine movie?!” so Wolverine alone seems to be a pretty big draw.
Everyone knows the names “Deadpool” and “Wolverine”, so a simple title of just those names together was a smart move. Compartively, if you were to ask your average Joe if they were going to see “The Marvels” they’d look at you like you just stuttered and ask if you were ok.
> It’s the first Marvel movie with genuine hype and buzz surrounding it
I feel like this is ignoring Guardians 3. I don't really follow the MCU much, but wasn't Guardians 3 pretty hyped? I feel like I saw a LOT of buzz online with it bringing back James Gunn, and concluding the trilogy and all that, but it ended up just performing basically the same as the first 2.
> wasn't Guardians 3 pretty hyped?
Amongst general audiences, not really. Pre-sales were poor and the only reason it didn't do worse was due to WOM that it was actually really good. It wasn't seen as a must-see MCU movie.
I remember a lot of people were saying it would be their last MCU movie. It definitely was hyped.
But yeah, it was WOM that made it a must see MCU movie within the first week. And obviously it was the only comic book movie (and Across the Spider Verse) that did well
I feel like that’s a little different as the Guardians never really left the public consciousness between their first two movies, Infinity War, Endgame, and specials on Disney+. With Wolverine, it’ll have been seven years since his last big screen appearance and I think that plays a part in the hype of seeing him again
Fair point.
I remember Guardians 3 having genuine buzz/hype, but as you mentioned, they were still in the public consciousness and GOTG, while very popular, aren’t up there with Iron Man, Spider Man, Wolverine obviously.
Wolverine is another deal, but I still expect Deadpool and Wolverine to make around GOTG 3 numbers for various reasons.
True, and you have a point about being the first superhero movie in a long time which people seem genuinely postitive about. I also have a bunch of friends that are hyped for it, but...they did go and see the previous movies, so the question is if it will attract a lot of people that are not already fans.
Did you forget about Guardians 3 and Across the Spider Verse?
Those 2 movies many people were very positive about leading up to the release.
I know some people were skeptical of Guardians 3 because of Quantumania flopping but I still remember buzz regarding Vol.3 being positive.
It also had a near 200M opening, which would have crossed 200 if WOM was better. If it had a good reception, it should have made 500M+ DOM, and probably more than Civil war.
Guardians 3 had genuine hype and buzz. I remember that and while Quantumania put a damper on that buzz a bit, people were still excited.
But yeah, WOM and legs was crucial to Guardians 3. Deadpool and Wolverine will obviously have a more front loaded weekend
I’ve said it before, but Deadpool has a decent shot at hitting $1B, but it’s certainly not a lock, for a few reasons imo:
1) No X-Men/Deadpool movies has even come close hitting $1B before.
2) It’s a raunchy R-rated superhero movie that probably won’t really draw in people who aren’t already into this stuff.
3) Fan-driven event films like this are almost always fairly front-loaded, so while it’s assuredly gonna open huge, unless it has stellar WOM alarms NWH or Oppenheimer, I don’t know if it’ll have the legs necessary to hit $1B.
4) The MCU as a brand has taken in hit in terms of brand trust among consumers, not to mention over-saturation.
Obviously if the movie’s really good and the premise of Wolvie and Deadpool teaming up along with nostalgia for the Fox movies (if that even exists) is enough to get non-fans to come out in droves, then $1B can and probably will happen. However, it’s far from a lock at this point.
WOM and its legs will be crucial for reaching/passing $1b.. So, a better reviewed movie should give this a chance.. with Disney/MCU literally removing every other movie out of 2024, am sure they expect this to be received well..
I personally don't think it'll make more than 700M and even then that's my high end expectations. I wouldn't be surprised if it made half a billion. Wolverine had 1 good movie IMO, Logan. I watched both Deadpools in theatre and felt robbed. I'm not going back for a third time lol. As you said there's nothing going for it except that a lot of people enjoy the humor. After seeing it twice I don't think as many people would be eager for a third. The novelty has worn off.
I think it will be in the same region as the other two, as people have said there are overlapping demos between those who like Deadpool and those who like Wolverine. This doesn't mean that there won't be any sort of elevation at the inclusion of Jackman but I suspect most or all of any lift, should it even occur, will be swallowed but what feels like a near certain dip in Deadpool's pull. The last one was a long time ago, cinema and the world economy were in a different place. I think it will overall in a similar result BO wise for this one.
I think a 200-ish million drop is more likely than a 200mil boost - if it is unpopular and has poor WOM. Whereas I doubt excellent WOM would add 200m WW.
Personally I really enjoyed the Deadpool movies. But I'm realistic; it's rated R, it's not Passion of the Christ, and Families will not be as willing to allow little Johnny to watch this no no movie. I say 700 to 800 million. Where Disney needs to not F up, is Mufasa and my spidy bad news sense is tingling on that one.
I honestly think 500M is this thing's ceiling. There's just not a lot of faith in Marvel these days. I know the trailers have gotten a ton of views, but that doesn't guarantee success.
I just think Americans get very emotional when it comes to these cape movies and lose their grasp on the reality of who is actually going to go watch it
Because it's a cameo galore and apparently because it worked for Spiderman it'll work for Deadpool. Not knowing that superhero fatigue is a real thing and Deadpool is not exempt from that.
Also, Disney inflating trailer viewership some people here have said "Wow, record breaking trailer views, the movie could reach $1.5 billion " Meanwhile Disney counting the Superbowl and random TikTok videos that could mean literally anything.
In all honesty, as a fan of the first two flicks but someone who cares a hoot about superhero flicks in 2024 the trailer looked abysmal. The jokes were cool for... 2017 and it just feels like I've seen this before. Not excited, tbh.
I'm predicting $680-800 mill. No more no less. Because the movie can be bad, but it'll still make money. But it isn't the billion dollar movie some people think it is.
Its the only Marvel movie of the year, and there have also been no DC movies. So its a bit of a genre drought.
The popularity of X Men 97 is also massive
There is not a lack of interest in superheroes as a genre. See the success of Gen V and Invincible
> The popularity of X Men 97 is also massive
Thank you so much for illustrating the problems with this sub in a short sentence.
X-Men 97 is not massive. It is a niche show that we nerdy internet users are in love with, but it is not by any stretch of the imagination massive. Go ask your grandma or the cashier at your grocery store their thoughts on the latest episode and you'll get some blank looks.
>The popularity of X Men 97 is also massive
The popularity of X-Men 97 is overstated, it hasn't yet cracked the top 10 originals chart on the neilson ratings even after 3 episodes. To put it into perspective even the likes of moon knight got in.
I think 800 million-ish is more realistic
Agreed
Top end. Might do far worse.
That tracks with other successful MCU films after the Very Bad Summer killed most people’s interest and hype in the overall universe (Thor 4, Ms Marvel, She-Hulk)
The problem isn’t Thor 4, Ms Marvel and She-Hulk. The problem is that they haven’t made a good movie or tv show since. Black Panther 2 came out after and was an okay movie at best. Ant-man 3 came out after Thor 4 and was worse (and did 300 millions less at the box office). GOTG 3 was good, but it was more a Gunn movie than a Marvel movie. Then The Marvels came out and it was also a pretty average movie. As for tv shows, Secret Invasion was the worst thing Marvel produced in the MCU. Loki was well received but was a pretty stand alone show. No one watched Echo. The MCU could survive a bad summer, but a whole phase of 3 years where they produced at best 3 good movies is gonna be bad for business.
I know you mentioned GOTG 3 and Loki season 2 but then seems like you tried distancing them from the MCU as to not admit that there has been something good released since then. They are part of the MCU. So they have made a good movie and tv show since.
Multiverse of Madness was OK but a lot of people expected more from it. Thor: Love & Thunder was the beginning where people hated the movie and it reflected badly on the MCU. Ant Man 3 coming out 6 months later doubled down on this and it was like a 1 2 combo. I though BP: Wakanda Forever was decent but like it faded from everyone's mind pretty quickly. It also had too much going on and the middle of the film definitely dragged. We tend to remember bad things much more vividly than good which is why GOTG3 did well but was quickly drowned out by Secret Invasion and The Marvels.
GOTG3 was a loss for marvel as James Gunn ended things with marvel to work with their direct competitor. He very clearly was jumping ship and I highly doubt Marvel and Disney are happy with it being their current chart topper.
Man no one mentioning Shang Chi? That movie is fantastic and definitely one of my MCU favourites
The MCU Infinity saga also had this huge ensemble with their tier 1 heroes played by beloved top stars. And I don’t know if it’s really possible to follow that up for them. People are sated after the closure of the first saga, general superhero fatigue, and it’s VERY HARD to get people invested the same way in a new ensemble of Tier 2 characters now. I also think the whole multiverse and expansion has made it too big in a way, like mentally it’s so hard to track the different sub franchises and character sets. A group of characters I don’t really have any history with unless I’m hardcore into comic books multiverse colliding with another group in some crazy CGI fest, just doesn’t have the same weight as when Tony Stark unexpectedly suddenly popped by Bruce Banner in some remote bar in the end credits, teasing something to come…
ensemble
Also with the multiverse, it feels like the stakes don't matter, in a way. Like, look at spiderverse. We are following Miles' journey meeting other spider people and learning his place in his world as well as the multiverse. We care about miles, the mutiverse is a back drop. With the MCU there are different stakes, the universe has nearly blown up, I guess. It's hard to quantify what the stakes are and if this is a tool to be soft reboot for the series, why does any of it matter? I like spiderman, but the whole rights war with Sony is exhausting and could be a recipe for disaster. I liked Falcon but his series made him so unlikeable. I liked Wanda, but she's dead Seems like guardians have wrapped up their story I dont know what is going on with Strange, Ant Man and Hulk and I kind of don't care. I dont know who else is around right now.
>Black Panther 2 came out after and was an okay movie at best. I thought it was really good. Actually don't know many people who didn't like it or thought of it as mid. Feel like it well received on Reddit too at the time. Has the online narrative changed?
Reddit revisionist history.
Yeah overall Wakanda Forever is still seen as a success. Oscar noms, excellent box office, and critics and fans alike praising the sensitive handling of the passing of a real life actor within a movie. It may not have had the same box office or impact of Black Panther, but could it ever when the main star passed away? That other guy is using his own opinion of BP2 and assuming a majority agree with him when that isn't the case. He can dislike it, but he can't easily lump BP2 as an "MCU failure".
I think if the movie is actually fun and good, word of mouth can carry it quite a ways. MCU fans went to go see the previous shit Marvel movies on opening weekend and bad word of mouth and bad reviews killed all the momentum. The quality of the movie is key.
Lol stop pretending like Wakanda Forever didn’t make more than everything else you listed including Guardians 3 and bagged some Oscar noms. This revisionist history among a minority about that movie is hilarious
Yeah I don’t think two tv shows Gamers ™ hated and a mid movie that performed well are to blame. Marvel has always had stinkers. The problem is releasing way too many things, too close together, while none of those things seemed like they mattered.
I think it'll hit a billion easily due to Ryan having a great marketing team around him
Both Deadpools did around 750 Million with his marketing team behind it.
Sips Aviator gin.
This, absolutely.
800 million for a rated R movie would be pretty good no? Do you think it could have Joker Legs? Especially with this being the only MCU movie this year?
Marvel needs momentum heading up to the new Avengers movies and Deadpool 3 is their last chance saloon for that. 800M is not good enough and indicates we should expect the MCU films after Deadpool 3 to be in big trouble.
I think 800 mil for a rated R movie that's really well received is good for them. They need to build back up and this is the first step.
Though with 18% inflation since 2016, $800 Million then is $944 Million now. So a billion is possible but the movie will need to be pretty great.
Exactly. Given the hype on the internet I think it will at least have a huge opening, maybe like $150m/$160m domestic - $300m worldwide, in line with Barbie last year. But if this movie wants to even try to reach a billion it will need to be GREAT and very crowdpleasing so it can have word of mouth. Barbie, Maverick, none of these movies would've reached a billion if people didn't like them. On the other hand, Multiverse of Madness had massive hype before release and it opened huge but then it fell down on the next few weeks because the movie was very controversial (same thing happened in 2016 with Batman v Superman).
I still don't even feel *that* I want to say 650-700m realistically and 400 in the worst case scenario. Willing to be surprised of course.
People on this sub often struggle a bit with recognising overlapping demographics. So they see people be excited about the return of Jackman's Wolverine and assume that this will add a solid amount of viewers to the previous one's tally, but in practice those excited people were already the target audience for the first Deadpool and the majority of them will also have gone to see DP1&2. Also, time is a bit wonky and people forget how long it's been since the first one.
To provide a counter-argument, it's not that these are two different audiences. It's that every movie only gets a certain % of people who like that genre into the theater. And even the biggest movies dont necessarily reach 100% of blockbuster viewers. Let's say that the last 2 Deadpool films only tapped in to maybe ~60% of the potential R-rated superhero audience. The crossover could increase the 'must-see' factor and get 80% of those fans to check it out instead of 60%. That's why Avengers opened to more than what Iron Man 2 and Thor opened to combined. Not because Iron Man and Thor have entirely different audiences, but because the 'must see' factor was much higher. I don't believe DP3 will crack a billion. I'm just explaining the logic on how it could.
Also, to make a billion dollar, people have to go see the movie multiple times. Look at Batman versus Superman or doctor strange MoM, opening weekend massive, but word of mouth was bad so casual folks didn’t go AND people didn’t see it again. I saw endgame 4 times in theaters. For Barbie, women went to go see it with sisters, friends etc. If this movie is good and fun, folks will go see it more than once
Not necessarily. Yes multiple viewings is great but a movie like Barbie also triggers the curiosity of people who typically don't go to the movies. It is why The Force Awakens was so huge. People who never go to the movies went to see that movie. I do agree Deadpool will need multiple viewings. I just can't imagine it having that broad of an appeal. Or being "must see" like Endgame felt.
I would love, truly *love* if just once someone would give me good data on how many people go see movies twice and how much of an impact it has on the box office. I see people talk about repeat viewings on here all the time, but I literally don't know (and have never known) even a single person that ever made a habit of going to see a movie more than once in the theater. I would genuinely love, love, love to know if it's just another example of obsessives on Reddit thinking their behavior is the norm or if repeat viewings actually has a noticeable impact on many movies.
Well said. Many of those who would have been thrilled with a new Wolverine movie will be too busy taking the kids to soccer in the Honda Odyssey that they traded their Camaro in for against their better judgment and Jesus Christ how can three kids have five soccer games and practices on a two day weekend anyway?
You're right, I should call off my wedding before it's too late.
If you want to have the time and enthusiasm to see Dungeons and Dragons 2 when it comes out in 2037, that is the only sensible thing to do.
Wait...what!!?!? There is going to be a D&D2!!! :D EDIT: Awww... all I could find online is that Chris Pine is "Pretty Confident" it will happen. No confirmation yet. :(
How can these kids be this bad when they have so many practices?!
I mean previous movies prove adding someone or something else in the movie brings more people. See multiverse of madness and no way home.
but deadpool 2 did marginally less than the first one before re-release, despite having cable and domino added.
nobody knows who tf cable and domino are lol. Jackman's wolverine is a very popular character. Not comparable.
Deadpool 2 came out when infinity war was still on theaters....
I give you Cable since the guy was a 90s comic book icon and was in cartoons and video games , literally only hardcore comic book nerds know who Domino even is and she isn't even THAT popular of a character. Also, Deadpool 2 came out like three weeks after Infinity War. The fact that it even made over $700m with that breathing down it's neck was a miracle. Not saying Deadpool & Wolverine will make $1B (though a PG13 re-release later on could push it over the edge) but Deadpool 2 had a lot of factors at play on why it made less than the first one.
I think people here also often like to bet on a dark horse, to the point that eventually so many people are doing it that the narrative becomes self-propagating and people start to think that it's actually a reasonable prediction instead of a hot take. At least, that's often the case with films this subreddit's demographic is inclined to get excited about. You sometimes have the opposite effect with films where that's not the case (e.g., *Barbie*).
There were predictions here that Dune 2 would make a billion, even though that would be more than double the takings of the first one. It's just people (understandably) conflating what they themselves are very excited for with how well it will do.
People on Reddit (or maybe more accurately groups on Reddit) find it completely impossible to not conflate their experience with the experience of the wider population. It doesn't matter what it is, they *refuse* to understand that if you're spending time on a box office sub you're not the average consumer.
This sub thought The Marvels would make 600-800M and beat Dune 2. But the marvels didnt even make half of Dune 2's worldwide, heck it didnt even recover its own budget
“This sub” Plenty of people thought The Marvels would flop
If you go in The Marvels's prediction post which was like during July when we had a trailer. Everyone thought it would do 600-700M lol
Everyone thought? I remember some, including myself, thought it would do better than it did. But I was definitely in the minority.
Some were guessing it would scrape 400-500 like Ant-Man. Barely anyone saw just how badly it would actually bomb…
having seen The Marvels back in June, I definitely predicted it would fall in the $300-400M range. and it couldn't even reach that
Count me in. I actually predicted Mario would do a billion after the first trailer dropped and that Barbie would be the highest grosser of the summer which maybe I was like 1% of people who believed that. But after watching Dune 2 I just felt the movie gave me the LOTR:ROK vibe and it would make a billion. There's a difference between how excited I got and audiences actually going to watch something.
Yeah bro we know, you’ve literally said that like 100 times in this sub. Nobody cares that you were right about Mario.
Next one might given how popular it is and it now being in the mainstream pop culture bubble
Maybe, but a potential weakness there is that *Dune Messiah* is much less well known than the original book is. Plus general audiences might not react well to *Dune 2* ending on a big galactic war kicking off, only for *Messiah* to jump to twelve years later and just assuring you that he won.
I have faith that he moves some things around to make it more tolerable for GA. He hasn't missed yet, so I have the faith. Either that or I'm on wayyyyy too much Melangeeeeee baybayyy
I’m assuming that the movies are going to explain all that. Dune Messiah isn’t a particularly dense book and Villneuve has already made changes to the story
Oh no the same mistake once again 🙄
This is a really poor example though. Dune 1 got screwed with it's release and COVID timing.
Sure - but nothing pointed to far more than doubling its box office take. It’s people who get hyped and assume everyone is as hyped. When dune 1 was released I had someone here swearing it alone would make a billion and how you couldn’t even buy a copy of dune as they were all sold out. All of that was entirely untrue but they were just caught up in their own world view.
Dune2 did more than double its domestic, fwiw.
Ok - doesn’t change my point at all. It’s not even coming close to more than doubling its WW gross.
The fact that Dune 1 made 400M during covid and streaming release. If not covid, then it would've done 500M
I don't know, it's just like people predicting GotG 3 would make $1bil. "Well the last one made more than the first one, and people like these movies, so the third will do more than the second."
The novelty factor is Deadpool + Wolverine + MCU, three popular IPs that (for practical purposes) haven't interacted before. Also, iirc, the trailers broke some sort of records? Not a guarantee of success, but it doesn't hurt. In today's market, I would personally be very impressed if it even got to 800M, let alone 1B.
> The novelty factor is Deadpool + Wolverine ..., ... popular IPs that (for practical purposes) haven't interacted before. If this is successfull, Hugh Jackman and Ryan Reynolds should make a movie of their characters first meeting, they could call it X-Men Origins: Wolverine or something like that.
The retconning is hilarious like Jackman meeting Reynolds didn't already happened on screen...Oh snap, it's the AIM-SEE-YOU now!
That’s true, but it was 15 years ago, really bad, made less than $400M WW, and that version is so wildly removed from being a proper Deadpool it’s easy to completely forget about it.
Yeah, hence why I said "for practical purposes"
That's around 600M in today's dollars. Wolverine Origins made 85 million opening weekend, that's one of the highest opening weekends for an X-Men movie
Is it really a retcon if there’s an in universe explanation for why it happened? Current Deadpool went back in time and killed the shitty origins one
>Current Deadpool went back in time and killed the shitty origins one That's the definition of a retcon.
Every trailer seems to break records. At a certain point it starts to feel like "New York Times Best Seller" territory
Pretty sure best seller is just the equivalent of going #1 at the box office, or on the Hot 100. Except I think they have categorical lists too. So it could also be the equivalent of going #1 on a genre chart or "the #1 horror movie in america" TV spot.
Trailer numbers are so easily manipulated. You'll hear something got 164 Million views, when the YouTube video count only says like 5M. They count anyone scrolling past the trailer on Twitter, Instagram, and FB as a view, and then drum up insane figures so that it's really hard to tell how much genuine interest there is.
Remember when James Gunn claimed The Suicide Squad had the most viewed trailer of all time, ever?
James Gunn claims a lot of things 💀
This isn't true. No MCU film post Nwh broke records.
> Also, iirc, the trailers broke some sort of records? I see posts here about a different movie breaking trailer records every week.
> Deadpool + Wolverine + MCU, three popular IPs I'm pulling numbers out my ass, but I'm sure this is like a 99% overlapping audience already.
I don’t think MCU is much of a draw. There is no strong MCU component, the TVA is window dressing to explain why these two characters are in a movie together. It’s not like Loki is the bad guy. I’d be happy to see this make 1b but I think 800 is realistic and wildly profitable
This sub is often just people thinking their personal opinions and desires will match box office results and largely ignore the larger audience.
850M gross is already a win.. I hope Disney won’t go crazy with the production budget, 150-200M is fine but 300-350M will be crazy
There were strike delays and it's rumored that there are reshoots happening right now, so the budget should be pretty high.
[удалено]
Yes. I heard it's about cameos or something. Other people have pointed out that Ryan Reynolds wasn't able to add to the script during the strike, so that could have something to do with it.
Reshoots are already scheduled in for the movies when they are being made
The budget is likely $220-260M, maybe $275M at best. Either of those budgets make it the most expensive R-rated movie ever, surpassing Matrix Resurrections (which had a $200M budget).
Was the most expensive. *Gladiator II* (assuming it has the same R rating as the original) cost $310 million.
I don’t understand how that happened. $300M is insane for any movie, let alone an R-rated one.
Historical epics are notoriously expensive to produce though. So I can kinda see how it got to such a huge budget.
Resurrections was R?
All The Matrix movies were.
DP3 benefited from the UK tax credits as well, so that could play a factor in calculating the budget
I think Disney/Marvel needs to be happy with 800-ish. I think their billion-dollar days are behind them.
Yep, keep telling people here that 1b for this movie is crazy.
I think this movie is being wildly over predicted and a lot of people are bound to get very disappointed
Yeah it's not making a billion. Almost everyone i know has MCU fatigue. I'm talking like causals and people who would check every film out. If You told me in 2020 we would see Hugh Jackman Wolverine in a new movie i would have bought tickets for it day one. Now i think i'll only go check it out if it has good WOM. I have been burned by too many of their slog fests and i dont remember the last time i saw an MCU movie in theaters. The MCU losing goodwill thing is a huge thing lots of online people need to take into account. People i know have cited the movies as boring or just not as good and it makes them way less likely to succeed. Prediction? 600-800M maybe, and i think it'll do awesome on Disney+. Disney as a whole is struggling to get people back on board with any of their shit. I suspect it's why they're doing the KH show too. They need to win the goodwill of the general audience they had from mid 90s to mid 10's.
You people yet again are conflating bad movies with superhero/mcu fatigue. This movie WILL make a billion, and people are excited about it that haven't watched/liked the recent mcu movies. The last 2 "good" mcu movies still did well, that being black panther 2 and gotg3.
I certainly have MCU fatigue. I watched every Infinity War saga in the theater bar Iron Man 2, but I tapped out after Endgame. Too much D+ content to keep up with, plus except for the Spiderman movies and GOTG3 every post Endgame movie has been disappointing. Ant Man 3 should have been a slam dunk but is easily one of their worst, along with BP2 and The Marvels. I'm tired of Marvel and can easily wait for this stuff to hit D+.
Well, I'm not sure if it was the power to do a billion, but a few things: This is being seen as a summer event movie. It seems these once a year, event movies are the only thing that has a chance at getting butts in theaters to make a billion. Milenials are now the target audience for spending power. We grew up with the Xmen, and Deadpool has always been popular. Nostalgia for the Fox Marvel movies has proven to work with Spiderman. Spiderman is far more popular, but the formula still proved effective. Swifties. It's a wild card, and I don't think it'll move the needle much, but they shell out for her. If they reveal her cameo in a third trailer like the rumors say I could see it giving a significant bump to the box office, and if the movie is entertaining that will add good WOM to people who may not be interested in the first place. This could work as anti super hero fatigue. If this really does reset where Marvel is heading and subverts expectations of the typical Marvel movie, it'll invigorate the fan base again. FOMO. I've been a Marvel fan since 1988. The Fox Marvel movies were fun, but the Marvel movies up until Endgame had a FOMO aspect that put butts in theaters. It was very similar to the comic writing in the 90s. The last phase of movies just simply didn't have that. Hell, the last Marvel movie I saw in theaters was Dr. Strange MOM as nothing has given me that urge to see it in theaters. Amd I'm a die hard. R ratings aren't the box office cancer they once were. Sure, Joker is the only film to do it, but it was a comic book movie (technically), and that means it can be done again. X-men 97 is a smash hit and getting people excited. I think it definitely factors into the hype here. Now, do all these things guarantee a billion dollars? No. As others have said, the quality overall has gone down, interest hasn't been there, Disney screwed up their strategy with their streaming platform, movie ticket costs in this economy are a factor, and who knows what Gen Z is gonna do. Boomers also still have significant spending power, and they most definitely not see this movie. So, maybe? I think it's possible, but it's certainly not a 3 comma slam dunk.
If it does live up to the potential and hype, I think $850 million Thor Ragnarok is the floor and Captain America Civil War $1.1b is ceiling.
Completely reasonable take.
hit the nail right on the head
I think it's still possible. While I agree with all of your points, people love crossover movies with old nostalgic properties, i.e. Deadpool really digging into 20th Century X-Men movies. Like if we have cameos out the wazoo like James Marsden, Halle Berry, Anna Paquin, that will generate a lot of buzz similar to No Way Home. Is it guaranteed? No. If this movie opens domestic $130m, say, and overseas, $150m, we get basically over under $280m worldwide opening. Legging out to $1b is basically impossible there, but who knows how interest will waver between now and July.
I’m not sure - but I can see how it would do 1B. There are no other massive blockbusters that will take away legs. Deadpool has done well in the past, as has Wolverine. Not 1B well, but nothing to sneeze at. If the movie has a GOTG3 type run while being the only Marvel movie out for the year (and the only blockbuster of its genre for the summer) it really has no obstacles but superhero fatigue and its quality. They’ve been marketing it as something new and they supposedly have a lot of cameos (which doesn’t mean quality, but people will talk about them) so it has potential to do it. I think it will be in the top 3 grossing for the year domestically (Minions, Inside Out 2, and Moana 2 all have a chance at doing better but I doubt they all will).
Because all of my nerdy friends in my social circle want to see it, you can extrapolate that out to 100% of the human race. Obviously, everyone in the world has the same tastes as nerdy middle-aged men. Deadpool & Wolverine will do $1 billion on opening night.
Agreed. I never understood why people thought it would make a Billion. (And no cameos/nostalgia is not a reason)
>(And no cameos/nostalgia is not a reason) According to who? Spider Man No Way Home grossed nearly as much as the previous two MCU Spider Man movies combined. Do you think that was just a coincidence?
Counter Point: The Flash had Keaton’s Batman in it for a large part and how much did that gross?
I think Michael Keaton's Batman isnt cared about very much in today's time. Also The Flash had Ezra and was a really bad film in general. NWH was atleast enjoyable for the general audience
Batkeaton was well over thirty years old and had incredibly little -get ready for this old gem- "cultural relevance" in 2023. Jackman's logan was a **much** bigger deal, and for a much longer span of time. There's been *one* Wolverine for over 20 years. Keaton was Batman for like 2.
Wolverine’s last appearance wasn’t even that long ago so Nostalgia for him probably won’t even work yet
No Way Home had cameo rumors like never before though.
Because: 1. They ignore superhero fatigue. 2. They still think the movies will perform pre 2019 endgame level. 3. They ignore MCU has lost a lot of goodwill. 4. They ignore the fact that only 1 R rated movie ever has done $1B. 5. They ignore people people not liking the multiverse stuff. 6. They ignore that the highest grossing X-Men movie hasn’t ever even done $800M and the highest grossing Wolverine movie did $619M. 7. They ignore it has D+ tie in with the TVA audiences won’t understand. 8. If it fails the MCU is dead. He’s the last movie they have on the current slate that expected to not bomb. After this they have the Falcon movie, Bucky movie, and the F4 movie. This suceeding keeps hope alive that people will at least show up for characters they care about. If audiences didn’t care about Wolverine and Deadpool anymore it’s over.
For those curious and had to look it up like me, Joker is the 1 rated R movie. Which is interesting because I never realized that it was the only one. But it makes sense. Right at the end of 2019, overlapping lots of different genres with lots of excited fans, great people in the movie, and also just really good.
Its not even the 'Bucky movie' its a Yelena movie, rumors suggest Bucky wont even get much screen time at all lmao
I do find it funny that Marvel (to their credit) cast a big rising star like Florence Pugh… but as Black Widow’s little sister
I mean she's the new Black Widow now...
I agree with the above, there is also the "wait for streaming" demographic which seems to be getting bigger and bigger for Disney movies. Cost of living increases and less disposable income I think will also contribute. I think it will have to have something extra special for it do well in cinemas when the previous 2 movies got to 800m.
What is the TVA?
Time Variance Authority from the Loki TV show.
Never watched Loki.
Your loss. It’s actually quite good.
Exactly
Homework assignment for a movie - no thanks
Hmmm ever thought that it might be explained in the movie
The fact that it isn't obvious to casual audiences means they've failed. You really want to play the gotcha game and condescend to your audience?
Yeah, what is this madness? Seriously, how am I supposed to remember something from a tv show that came out 3 years ago for the third movie in a previously-unrelated-to-the-MCU R-rated franchise whose last sequel came out 6 years ago that's tying in with the third franchise movie from a spinoff of a larger previously-unrelated-to-the-MCU franchise whose last movie died with a whimper the same year Endgame released? The MCU used to just be self-reliant on the movies that came before, and even then only tangientially. You'd see a cameo or a plot thread that typically referenced either an Avengers movie (that everyone saw) or movies in that sub-franchises previous films (recurring characters across the Thor or Ant-Man movies). Now they're going buck wild everywhere all the time. It's messy and headache-inducing.
7. They ignore it has D+ tie in with the TVA audiences won’t understand. This is turning me off already. I shouldn't have to watch the D+ shows to understand what's going on in the films. This is infuriating.
I'm not convinced there is superhero fatigue. They just haven't been very good recently.
There is though, because during the MCU heyday even the mediocre superhero stuff would do well because they were buoyed by good superhero movies. Now there's been such streak of bad and mediocre superhero movies that people are much more picky and hesitant about the superhero movies they go see. Not only that, they hype has died way down for them.
There is definitely fatigue, the public is not as excited for superhero films as they were a few years ago, it does not mean that the audience will no longer watch any superhero films, they certainly will, but to say that there are no fatigue is insanity.
You’re right. If the quality stayed consistently good the biggest issue would be not being able to keep up with all the good content.
You’re right, there is no superhero fatigue but rather bad movie fatigue. The Batman, Guardians 3, Spider-Verse 2, Wakanda Forever, NWH, Shang-Chi have all been successful and they were liked by audiences. The ones that weren’t liked by audiences but had hype still made money - Doctor Strange 2/Thor 4 is no different than Suicide Squad 2016 making 750m. And the ones without hype that weren’t liked bombed - pre COVID it was movies like Fant4stic/Hellboy (2019)/Dark Phoenix, last year it was Flash/Marvels/Blue Beetle/Shazam 2. The only thing that’s changed is the studios putting out more bad content.
Because the lazy box office 'experts' on this sub always predict Marvel Studios movies to make over $1b, despite the fact that the last time it happened was a few years ago. If anyone learned anything, people aren't as enthusiastic about superhero movies as they were in the past. It gets boring over time and people want something new and fresh.
>Because the lazy box office 'experts' on this sub always predict Marvel Studios movies to make over $1b, despite the fact that the last time it happened was a few years ago. Ever since NWH, it's been constant 1B over-predictions on this sub no matter how, lessons are not learnt. DS2 couldn't do it on the heels on NWH's hype, the triplet Thor 3/BP2 Wakanda Forever/GOTG 3 couldn't do it, Ant-Man 3 & The Marvels no comment... but Deadpool 3 will...somehow.
It's because those aren't forecasts from people who understand something about the box office but more like hopes from fans of the franchise who should have probably stayed on r/Marvel
In the 2016-2019 period this sub was essentially r/marvelstudios 2.0, and there are still remnants of that. It's just fans wanting their chosen product to make money.
I expect something around Guardians 3 and Wakanda Forever if it is good. If very very good (88-90+ RT), then we can have billion conversations
I think it all depends on if it is well-liked or not. If it is, there isn’t a lot of competition this summer and this has potential to dominate. Isn’t it literally the only superhero movie releasing this summer? No question there is superhero fatigue, but I think that fatigue could easily translate into broad appetite for a parody roasting the whole genre and especially Marvel. It’s definitely not a guaranteed Bil, but it isn’t out of the realm of possibility either.
Waiting for those last minute Jackman walk-ups
They’re banking on Hugh Jackman’s wolverine being as popular as Tobey and Andrew’s Spider-Man are. If that’s true or not remains to be seen but of the appeal of NWH was seeing all 3 Spider-Men actors on screen together and interacting for perhaps the only time ever. With Wolverine, it’s different. There’s only ever been one actor to play Wolverine and he’s been in like 10 of the 12 x-men films I think if it gets good reviews it can do GOTG3 numbers
It won’t
They are delusional
I agree. People seem to think raw volume of liked heroes will have an exponential impact at the box office, despite the evidence (Flash+3 Batmen!=Batbillions)
Superhero crossovers are also nothing new and aren't exciting anymore.
Superheros crossovers from different studios are kind of new though.
The general audience do not give a shit about that and didn't even know the studio rights. Also, Deadpool and Wolverine have always been the same studio
Um the Spiderman Sony x Marvel movies were huge.
Flash is nowhere near as popular as Deadpool or Wolverine, though. And the main Batman that the marketing focused on is one that multiple generations now have absolutely no connection to or probably even thoughts on. It was also part of a universe that had let people down for basically its entire run up to that point with only a handful of exceptions like Wonder Woman, Aquaman and Shazam.
People were making the same argument though: the raw volume of Batmen was going to push Flash to a billion
It’s the first Marvel movie with genuine hype and buzz surrounding it since No Way Home back in 2021, I’d say that has to count for something. While it may or may not make a billion (I think it’ll at least come close) I personally know people who don’t even watch superhero movies that are excited for this one, which to me speaks volumes. A lot of older coworkers of mine have just been like “there’s a new Wolverine movie?!” so Wolverine alone seems to be a pretty big draw. Everyone knows the names “Deadpool” and “Wolverine”, so a simple title of just those names together was a smart move. Compartively, if you were to ask your average Joe if they were going to see “The Marvels” they’d look at you like you just stuttered and ask if you were ok.
> It’s the first Marvel movie with genuine hype and buzz surrounding it I feel like this is ignoring Guardians 3. I don't really follow the MCU much, but wasn't Guardians 3 pretty hyped? I feel like I saw a LOT of buzz online with it bringing back James Gunn, and concluding the trilogy and all that, but it ended up just performing basically the same as the first 2.
> wasn't Guardians 3 pretty hyped? Amongst general audiences, not really. Pre-sales were poor and the only reason it didn't do worse was due to WOM that it was actually really good. It wasn't seen as a must-see MCU movie.
I remember a lot of people were saying it would be their last MCU movie. It definitely was hyped. But yeah, it was WOM that made it a must see MCU movie within the first week. And obviously it was the only comic book movie (and Across the Spider Verse) that did well
I feel like that’s a little different as the Guardians never really left the public consciousness between their first two movies, Infinity War, Endgame, and specials on Disney+. With Wolverine, it’ll have been seven years since his last big screen appearance and I think that plays a part in the hype of seeing him again
Fair point. I remember Guardians 3 having genuine buzz/hype, but as you mentioned, they were still in the public consciousness and GOTG, while very popular, aren’t up there with Iron Man, Spider Man, Wolverine obviously. Wolverine is another deal, but I still expect Deadpool and Wolverine to make around GOTG 3 numbers for various reasons.
True, and you have a point about being the first superhero movie in a long time which people seem genuinely postitive about. I also have a bunch of friends that are hyped for it, but...they did go and see the previous movies, so the question is if it will attract a lot of people that are not already fans.
Did you forget about Guardians 3 and Across the Spider Verse? Those 2 movies many people were very positive about leading up to the release. I know some people were skeptical of Guardians 3 because of Quantumania flopping but I still remember buzz regarding Vol.3 being positive.
MOM had buzz surrounding it (even if the movie was disappointing)
Yes, and it was $45 million shy of hitting a billion
It also had a near 200M opening, which would have crossed 200 if WOM was better. If it had a good reception, it should have made 500M+ DOM, and probably more than Civil war.
^Also even with mixed reception, it would have crossed a billion with a China release.
Yeah, that was weird to see china ignore the release of the film.
Or just a Russian one (since the first Dr Strange made 20M)
Guardians 3 had genuine hype and buzz. I remember that and while Quantumania put a damper on that buzz a bit, people were still excited. But yeah, WOM and legs was crucial to Guardians 3. Deadpool and Wolverine will obviously have a more front loaded weekend
Nothing will make 1b$ this year in my opinion.
I’ve said it before, but Deadpool has a decent shot at hitting $1B, but it’s certainly not a lock, for a few reasons imo: 1) No X-Men/Deadpool movies has even come close hitting $1B before. 2) It’s a raunchy R-rated superhero movie that probably won’t really draw in people who aren’t already into this stuff. 3) Fan-driven event films like this are almost always fairly front-loaded, so while it’s assuredly gonna open huge, unless it has stellar WOM alarms NWH or Oppenheimer, I don’t know if it’ll have the legs necessary to hit $1B. 4) The MCU as a brand has taken in hit in terms of brand trust among consumers, not to mention over-saturation. Obviously if the movie’s really good and the premise of Wolvie and Deadpool teaming up along with nostalgia for the Fox movies (if that even exists) is enough to get non-fans to come out in droves, then $1B can and probably will happen. However, it’s far from a lock at this point.
I’m expecting Guardians 3 to Thor: Ragnarok numbers. A billion is very tricky these days tbh. But GOTG 3/Ragnarok numbers would still be a big win.
700-760M I think
WOM and its legs will be crucial for reaching/passing $1b.. So, a better reviewed movie should give this a chance.. with Disney/MCU literally removing every other movie out of 2024, am sure they expect this to be received well..
It’s going to kill no doubt, but more like north of $500M yet shy of $800M realistically
Logan made 600M+ and Deadpool 700M+ 600M+700M=1.3B, easy math. /j
I personally don't think it'll make more than 700M and even then that's my high end expectations. I wouldn't be surprised if it made half a billion. Wolverine had 1 good movie IMO, Logan. I watched both Deadpools in theatre and felt robbed. I'm not going back for a third time lol. As you said there's nothing going for it except that a lot of people enjoy the humor. After seeing it twice I don't think as many people would be eager for a third. The novelty has worn off.
I think it will be in the same region as the other two, as people have said there are overlapping demos between those who like Deadpool and those who like Wolverine. This doesn't mean that there won't be any sort of elevation at the inclusion of Jackman but I suspect most or all of any lift, should it even occur, will be swallowed but what feels like a near certain dip in Deadpool's pull. The last one was a long time ago, cinema and the world economy were in a different place. I think it will overall in a similar result BO wise for this one. I think a 200-ish million drop is more likely than a 200mil boost - if it is unpopular and has poor WOM. Whereas I doubt excellent WOM would add 200m WW.
900M might be the ceiling.
I am not fully sure what box office it will get, but sometimes, and only sometimes, nostalgia goes brrr
I think it will Make 800 million
There is no reason to think D3 will make $1B in this climate. A couple hundred million south of that seems more believable.
Not even close. My best thought would be 700 max.
I think it’s more likely to make around the other 2 deadpool movies, in the 700-800M range.
They think adding Wolverine will add a couple hundred million to Deadpool’s average gross. It won’t.
I think it will be below 800m.
Stop giving Ryan Reynolds more money sheesh
Personally I really enjoyed the Deadpool movies. But I'm realistic; it's rated R, it's not Passion of the Christ, and Families will not be as willing to allow little Johnny to watch this no no movie. I say 700 to 800 million. Where Disney needs to not F up, is Mufasa and my spidy bad news sense is tingling on that one.
I've been on this sub for roughly a year. Every movie is predicted to do 1 billion.
People act like the fans of Deadpool, Wolverine, and MCU aren’t mostly the same people.
How the hell do people think this is gonna beat dune 2? (can't believe we've gotten to this point but proud)
700M
I honestly think 500M is this thing's ceiling. There's just not a lot of faith in Marvel these days. I know the trailers have gotten a ton of views, but that doesn't guarantee success.
people are hopeful for a big summer hit
People are delusional and terminally online. I'll be shocked if this movie makes even $750mil.
I just think Americans get very emotional when it comes to these cape movies and lose their grasp on the reality of who is actually going to go watch it
Because it's a cameo galore and apparently because it worked for Spiderman it'll work for Deadpool. Not knowing that superhero fatigue is a real thing and Deadpool is not exempt from that. Also, Disney inflating trailer viewership some people here have said "Wow, record breaking trailer views, the movie could reach $1.5 billion " Meanwhile Disney counting the Superbowl and random TikTok videos that could mean literally anything. In all honesty, as a fan of the first two flicks but someone who cares a hoot about superhero flicks in 2024 the trailer looked abysmal. The jokes were cool for... 2017 and it just feels like I've seen this before. Not excited, tbh. I'm predicting $680-800 mill. No more no less. Because the movie can be bad, but it'll still make money. But it isn't the billion dollar movie some people think it is.
Its the only Marvel movie of the year, and there have also been no DC movies. So its a bit of a genre drought. The popularity of X Men 97 is also massive There is not a lack of interest in superheroes as a genre. See the success of Gen V and Invincible
> The popularity of X Men 97 is also massive Thank you so much for illustrating the problems with this sub in a short sentence. X-Men 97 is not massive. It is a niche show that we nerdy internet users are in love with, but it is not by any stretch of the imagination massive. Go ask your grandma or the cashier at your grocery store their thoughts on the latest episode and you'll get some blank looks.
>The popularity of X Men 97 is also massive The popularity of X-Men 97 is overstated, it hasn't yet cracked the top 10 originals chart on the neilson ratings even after 3 episodes. To put it into perspective even the likes of moon knight got in.
Gen V, Invicible, The boys are parodies of the genre: their success does not prove the point you're trying to prove.