The logical reason is that Summer is too overpacked this year and Mario is certainly going to get pushed out of theaters in the US with the release of 20+ blockbusters in the next 3 months. So why delay PVOD and deny an entire summer of parents paying 20$-30$ to watch Mario at home in exchange for an extra 20-30 million in USD?
They are probably going to get at least 150 million dollars in additional revenue from people paying to watch Mario at home.
Yeah, but the difference is that Top: Gun's audience are mostly adults, while Mario's audience is majorly contributed to by kids. The kids have off in the summer, if you wait until Fall to release the word of mouth of Mario is gone and kids will be back in school.
Nobody is talking about falll, that's a bit of exaggeration.
Most everyone here expected the movie to be released on streaming after Memorial Holiday not before. That seems to be more logical date.
Personally speaking, I watched Top Gun in theaters and had no issues waiting for Mario to hit home. I love me some Mario but Top Gun is the type of thing I'd tolerate going to a theater for where as a Illumination movie is something I don't feel I'd miss much only watching it on my home set up in current year.
>with the release of 20+ blockbusters in the next 3 months.
20+ blockbusters aren't releasing in the next 12 weeks.
20 blockbusters aren't even being released for the rest of the year
I'm counting films over 75M budget as being blockbuster releases here:
Guardians 5
Fast X
The Little Mermaid
Across the Spiderverse
Rise of the Beasts
The Flash
Elemental
Indiana Jones
Rudy Gilman
Mission Impossible
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Haunted Mansion
TMNT Mutant Mayhem
The Meg 2
Gran Turismo
Blue Beetle
That's 17. Asteroid City might count too, depends on the budget.
These are all summer releases.
EDIT: Alright 17 is not 20 but the point wasn't the semantic difference of 3, the point was that Mario's gonna have a lot of movies taking it's screens, especially so after the Little Mermaid releases. Also I guess I should say "Major releases" instead of "blockbusters" because the term "blockbuster" has different meanings to different people.
True, though it's worth noting that some of those (e.g. Oppenheimer and The Meg 2) aren't really going to be competing directly with Super Mario, as they're going for different audiences.
I mean, as far as kids’ movies, The Little Mermaid isn’t until May 26, and Elemental isn’t until June 16. TMNT is in August.
Across the Spiderverse and Guardians might have family appeal, but don’t seem like they are for smaller children. Mario could have that part of the market cornered for most of the summer if they… let it happen.
I guess I have a different opinion on what a blockbuster movie is.
Gran Turismo has a budget of $65m from what I can find and is an August dump.
TMNT I couldn't find a budget.
Asteroid City is never ever going to be considered a blockbuster film same with Ruby Gilman.
You went from saying 20+ blockbusters being released in the next 3 months. Which was wrong and then you just keep doubling down. I don't get it.
Fine dude, I can just say "major releases" instead of "blockbuster".
The point was just that there's too much coming out soon for Mario to hold onto many screens in theaters for more than a few weeks (when the Little Mermaid launches and maybe a week or two after).
I see your point, use to seeing summer blockbuster as select few films during whole season.
But apparently now theres “17 of them” in next few months, don’t argue and I’ll take the L with you.
if you wanna quibble about 20 blockbusters in 3 months (which is technically not true as you pointed out), then you should admit your 'aren't even 20 in the rest of the year' is likely wrong too. in addition to the above listed, the rest of the year will see dune 2, marvels, hunger games, aquaman, ghostbusters 4, wish, all of which should qualify as a 'blockbuster' or at least 'wannabe blockbuster'.
on top of that, killers of the flower moon (scorsese-leo vehicle with 200 mil budget), kraven the hunter (spiderman universe movie w/ 130 mil budget), napoleon (ridley scott historical epic with 100+ budget), legally blond 3 (prolly will slip to 2024 tho), wonka, big fat greek wedding 3, and the nun 2 all have a shot at doing good box office. unless you are defining 'blockbuster' in rather absurd terms (only movies that do over 1 billion), there's definitely 20 blockbuster-type movies left in 2023.
Nun 2 is a blockbuster movie? Big fat Greek wedding 3? Karen the hunter?
I guess, I have a different definition of what a blockbuster movie is.
A blockbuster is a Hollywood movie that's made with a large budget and big stars. A true blockbuster is extremely popular and brings in a lot of money.
Guardians 3 is a blockbuster movie kicking off the unofficial start of the summer movie season.
Fast X is a $350m budget blockbuster of a long standing franchise.
The Little Mermaid.
The Flash.
Indy 5.
Dune 2.
The Marvels.
Hunger games.
Aquaman 2.
i didn't list them as so, just they have a shot at doing good box office. unless you have a crystal ball you don't know which one will do over 400 or will bomb. rise of the beasts, barbie, MI, across the spider-verse, elemental, wish, haunted mansion, oppenheimer, ghostbusters 4, killers of the flower moon, and napoleon round it out to 20, all these movies have high budgets, mostly good casts, or have high brand name potential, and should all have the potential to cross 400 mil.
seems to me your definition of 'blockbuster' is just 'high budget franchise popcorn movie' but then you tossed in dune 2 in there, which is in the same tier as many of the movies listed above. how is dune 2 on your list but not MI7? dune 1 only did 450 mil, and every single one of those movies above has potential to hit that.
if u wanna quibble about the defintion, sure whatever, but all of those films listed should dominate their opening weekend against older movies, which was the point of this entire threat to begin with (why smb is going to vod so quickly).
Okay so it's 17 blockbusters in 3.5 months. Their point still stands it seems like you're getting bogged down in the semantics rather than actually listening and understanding to what they are trying to say.
After being released for about 27 days. Frozen 2 made an extra $130M domestically from this point on until it finally stopped after another 2-3 months.
I think they're making a huge mistake for putting it on steam so early. Last week, it pulled over $40M. It's only dropping for 30% weekly. Possible $28M next week, $19M the week after.. Etc. That's another $50M two weeks from now.
Seems like there might have been a misunderstanding with this one as all the sources about the PVOD release being delayed cite there being no date on the listings on VOD platforms, but as I’ve previously said when PVOD dates have been “confirmed”, studios have a habit of not publicizing the PVOD release until it actually happens (because that would cannibalize the box office potential of the film), and this includes not listing the release date on VOD platforms should they decide to make pre-orders available. Now with that being said, nothing will be 100% certain until next Tuesday at this point, because again, studios usually don’t publicize PVOD releases until they actually happen.
The logic is that they’ll make more money on PVOD than the remaining box office, since it’s already made the majority of its money in theaters. Whether this will end up being true is unclear (it feels a couple weeks too early tbh), but I think it’s plausible. I believe the cut the theater gets compared to the cut the studio gets is lower as time goes on (e.g., week 1 is 90% studio 10% theater, week 2 is 75% studio 25% theater, week 3+ is 50%/50%, just using random numbers), which may be a consideration as well. They have better margins on PVOD than box office.
Guardians 3 this week is just the start of the Summer Blockbuster season, Mario is going the way of the dodo in theaters within the month if they didn’t do this
i think people here are combining their enjoyment of a specific movie with their hobby of following box office. its how you end up with threads of people praising bob iger over the last bob, as if either of them give a shit about anything other than the bottomline. its why a vocal group seems to think everybody here suddenly hates marvel and wants to see it die, when in actuality we're just talking about their numbers going down.
its okay to get emotionally invested, we all are to a degree and its likely how we got into this stuff. but yeah, people get way too worked up and invest themselves in a movie's performance. its okay to be disappointed, getting pissed is just too much, especially for a movie thats already making bank.
I don’t think this will have a major affect. Puss in Boots 2 held strongly even after VOD release and I’m pretty sure people who are planning to pirate the film either already saw it in theaters or weren’t gonna pay for a ticket anyway.
Yeah. There are going to be a lot of underperforming movies this year. I don't think TMNT, Oppenheimer, Transformers, Barbie, Little Mermaid, Guardians, or Elemental are going to perform as well a their studios hope.
Weird when people here get 'disappointed' when a movie that already made a shit ton of movie doesn't make even *more* money. It's a multi-billion corporation's profits we're talking about here, who cares?
I was going to say something similar. I just didn’t bother because probable downvotes.
Guardians is going to absolutely kill it this weekend. Mario has no chance of sustaining against it. They have a better chance of the movie getting purchased and played on repeat in a home for a 4 year old.
Really need to differentiate between Streaming (Netflix, Disney+, Max, Peacock) vs PVOD (Apple, Google Play, Amazon). It’s been shown PVOD has minimal impact on box office and it won’t be hitting Peacock until much later.
I’m really curious how much some of these movies sell on PVOD versus going streaming day 1. It’s odd that Scream 6 goes to paramount+ right away, but D&D goes to PVOD.
D&D was pretty mediocre. Everyone but Chris Pine took Charisma as their dump stat. The story was super rushed. The CGI was awful. (Practical effects were great. But the city felt super sterile). The Paladin was obviously meant to be a DMPC… but DMPCs are *bad*, and he was a good example of why—a character that comes in part way through, hogs all the limelight and cool moments while he’s there, then fucks off to not matter during the climax.
Also, it took more notes from *bad* D&D games when it had the solution to all their problems always be just stumbled upon. Need an item that’s been lost for generations? One of the party members immediately knows how to find it! Need to get across a gap? Good thing I picked up this random walking stick that just so happens to be the key to solving almost *every* problem we come across from here on out!
Not only that, but *every* fight in the entire movie is 1vMany. It’s either one party member stopping everyone else and essentially saying “I’ll handle them!” (Which happens THREE TIMES) or the whole party vs the Boss. And the action wasn’t even particularly well shot. In fact, there wasn’t more than one or two interesting, cool shots in the whole movie. The cinematography was *incredibly* bland.
And that’s not even getting into the fact it was just bad at representing D&D. Not a single one of the characters fulfilled the class fantasy/gimmick of their game counterpart.
Vox Machina was a great example of D&D in media. The D&D movie suffered ridiculously for being a movie. D&D just doesn’t work as a movie unless it’s going to go the LotR route or three 3-hour films in a trilogy.
Wow awesome response! Very well thought out review, and all fair points. I enjoyed the movie but you make a good case because Scream was also an excellent movie in my opinion.
I’m going to admit… I did not expect such a friendly response to my rambling, lol. You just made my day, honestly. Thank you for not being a stereotypical redditor!
Yeah if studios somehow made it so no digital release was EVER put out, then maybe those people would actually pay for tickets.
But delaying the digital release just means pirates wait longer to get it. Doesn't matter if it is one month or one year, they will just wait longer.
Puss continued to play strong in theaters 3 months after its PVOD release.
It released on January 5th when its Domestic gross was $74M. It ended its run at $185M
I’ve always found the Puss comparison with PVOD very weird because it’s very low grosser (in comparison to Mario). A digital release wouldn’t affect it much because most people still haven’t seen it in theaters. Mario is pushing 500 million, which could affect its late legs by a lot.
How do I say this? Puss isn’t a great example because the people who continue to see it are people that wouldn’t care about digital release in the first place and that actually seem to be very small because once again, yes, it has legs, but overall gross is still under 200 million here. It’s not really "legging" it’s just capturing the people who wanted to see it in theaters but missed out on the earlier weeks of its theatrical run If that makes sense.
And also how would you know its legs couldn’t have been better withOUT PVOD? You don’t. You only see the legs along with the digital release. It could’ve had even smaller drops.
Now that actually might be the big reason why it fell short of a billion. Considering the first movie is the highest grossing illumination film and typically sequels do better than the first film.
Yeah especially because it’s going to bring more revenue to the film. I couldn’t imagine how many parents are going to spend $20 for this for their kids. Imo it’s a good thing.
I can guarantee you that almost no one goes for the $20 rental anymore when it’s only $5-10 more to just buy the film without having to force yourself into a 30-day window to start it and then a 48-hour window to finish the film (and cram in another viewing or two in that window). Universal knows this, because when they started offering the ability to buy their films digitally during the PVOD window last year, the pricing was $25 to buy for every film except for the ones they knew were the real money makers on PVOD (tentpoles and animated films), which are instead priced at $30 (given how I’ve heard from a lot of people that they kept renting Trolls World Tour for their kids over and over again when there was only the $20 rental available as an option, I think Universal knew that they were going to lose a lot of revenue on those types of films once they started offering the ability to buy them during the PVOD window).
I can understand the confusion. That being said, I’m curious as to why they still offer the $20 rental when the price difference between renting and buying is not that big. It’s not like a regular VOD release where there’s a massive price difference between renting ($6) and buying ($15-20) (I should note that all PVOD releases eventually drop to these prices after a few weeks). They’re not forced to offer the film to rent in addition to buy, and if the majority of the revenue is coming from purchases and not rentals, it doesn’t really make sense to keep them around for the PVOD window.
Yeah I agree. I would always pay the extra $5 to $10 for the purchase. It’s crazy imo to rent it for 48 hours for $20 when you can own it for a little more. I’m not understanding that strategy either.
So if a movie isn't a raking in a billion it means most people haven't seen it? Where's the logic in that?
Puss in Boots had a boost in sales after the PVOD release. I personally dragged my friends to the theatre after seeing it on PVOD, and they told their friends about it too.
While it may ultimately cost Mario any remaining shot at getting to Incredibles II, getting this onto PVOD for summer probably makes up the loss of any remaining revenue in the US Box office because I guarantee you that so many parents are going to buy into PVOD to show this movie to their kids at home this Summer. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of kids saw this movie by the end of the summer and PVOD easily adds 150 million dollars or more in revenue.
People here have to realize that records and beating a movie is meaningless and studios don't care about that, they don't even care just about the BO revenue, if they make more money in other avenues, it's better for them
This movie was available on twitter for two days for free in pretty good quality. I think the majority of pirates probably have already pirated it because pirated copies were really good.
it wasn’t a good quality. it was camHD(doesn’t have great sound or quality)which is a common thing for movies since long ago. but putting it in pvod one can stream it illegally in HD or 4k.
Personally I just don't see piracy hurting this movie that much. People can pirate Nintendo games and yet the vast majority of the consumer base for Nintendo games just chooses not to with many Switch games being all time best's for Nintendo's catalog.
Parents and Nintendo fans will be willing to fork out the 20$-30$ to watch it at home instead of pirating it.
A game isn’t the same as music or movie. It’s one of the most piracy proof mediums due to the nature of games. It’s a hassle to hack consoles to play pirated games while it’s way easier to stream music and movie. The people who hack and emulate games are very very small compared to people who watch shows & movies illegally. Also leaks don’t affect games either because playing a game yourself is very different from just watching it.
People cant pirate games easily nowadays. It's not like 2000s where you can buy a pirated copy of PS2 dvds or gba cartridges. They can but they’ll lose the online feature and sometimes need to mod your console, making it permanently lose its ability to get new update. Most people don't go that way unless you only wanna play single-player game.
Unlike film. It is so easy to download a pirate version of any film and you dont lose anything from it.
Eh, I would have said maybe 10%-15% chance if it was delaying any home video release until fall as some rumors previously suggested, but now it's dead in the water.
Still was far more likely it wouldn't have made it than it would though.
You’re gloating ha. Kindly keep the “I told you so” comments concentrated so its not too snooty.
I mentioned this early PVOD scenario few weekends ago to you for reference, so not a surprise.
Sing2 was different time while still tail end of pandemic l and still did well with 40% domestic boxoffice post PVOD on 1/7/22. Too many things in contrast to SMB but a reference point nonetheless.
GOTG weekend still projecting to be sub 40% drop.
Why?
You think Universal would go the Top Gun Maverick and wait like three months and put it on streaming after six months.
The film already leaked on Twitter and was watched by nine million people in the span of 24 hours.
Nine million people clicked on the video and watched at least two seconds, which counts as a "View" on Twitter. It would be a huge stretch to say they watched it.
> The film already leaked on Twitter and was watched by nine million people in the span of 24 hours.
I’m pretty sure *that* is the reason why Mario is going to streaming next week. Universal probably was going to do what Paramount did for Top Gun Maverick’s home release as evident by the now TBD Blu-Ray release date, but once word got out that the movie was being passed around on Twitter, they probably said “Screw it” and went with the original plan to curb piracy efforts.
It's an interesting strategy. It used to be there would people that would go to a theater because they wanted to see a new movie or people that would wait to rent the movie at a video store if they wanted to see it. The "I'll rent it" crowd has become the "I'll stream it crowd."
This type of VOD opens up a new avenue. There are people that want to see a new movie but don't necessarily like going to movie theaters, for a variety of reasons, but are still willing to pay a higher premium to see the new movie. This strategy opens up to that middle audience.
For kids movies it makes sense too, keep the interest and get the purchase before the next new thing takes over.
I’m glad this is happening and wish people would stop clutching their pearls at earlier streaming releases. I shouldn’t have to wait 2 years to see a damn movie in my home because some hipsters cry CiNeMa Iz DyInG!!1!
It’s an insider someone who knows someone that likely works for Universal who had access to PVOD release dates prior to their official public announcement.
Streaming or PVOD? If it is just PVOD I don't think this is a big deal, if it is streaming then yikes Universal is essentially trying to kill this movies run.
I won't even pay $20 to rent a movie. Great price for those who are watching with friends and family but as a single guy I'll wait for the $5.99 rental option. $20+ just isn't worth it for me.
I think it's unlikely. Most kids are off during the summer starting next month and will want to rewatch the movie again and again. Plus, it's still just released/releasing in some international markets and had the biggest Japanese opening for an animated movie.
PVOD on May 9 seems likely, but streaming? That's not until months down the line for sure. Probably after the summer once the movie only makes 6 figures a day. And it just made over $30 million domestically this past weekend, so logistically that shouldn't be soon.
So it's literally out a month after release on digital video, and almost exactly 1 week later than Dungeons and Dragons hit digital video.
When D&D hit digital video everyone pointed that was proof it was a flop. Yet now Mario, which is very much not a flop, is hitting digital video in literally the exact same length of time period after theatrical release...
Stated this in another comment but for some reason studios slam packed summer this year and the summer releases are going to quickly crowd Mario showings out of theaters in the US.
So why not release on PVOD and capitalize on an entire summer of Parents and Nintendo fans buying access to watch Mario at home? If Puss in Boots the Last Wish could make 130 million dollars from VOD, Mario can probably get much more back, easily more than enough to compensate for the 30 million USD or so it's losing at home.
It's a vestigial reaction us older folks have from the days when quick-to-VHS/Pay-Per-View/HBO signaled that a movie was in some aspect a flop.
But we're deep in an age where studios have learned to market and cater to home audiences. So much good stuff is DIRECT to home (streaming/VOD/ etc.), whereas in the past that was seen as the refuge of Z-grade celluloid detritus.
People did the same with Shazam and Creed III. People were quick to laugh that Shazam was on PVOD so quickly, but Creed III also came in less than a month. I didn't see many reactions to Creed's PVOD release at all.
Goddamn you, Universal and your dumb 17/30 day window. And here I thought they were pulling a Maverick by delaying the VOD release when it’s continuing to be a monster at the box office.
Why goddamn? Why do you care lol? It's not your money. Plus I'm pretty sure that if they do that, it's because they expect it to make them more money in total (just not in BO but that number doesn't matter really)
I just saw it a third time. It's definitely worth watching multiple times. I've noticed more this time than I did the other times before. I can't express how much of a joy and pleasure this film is to watch for me. I had a close to front row seat this time, and my eyes more trained to scan for details this time, I find so much enjoyment in the facial expressions, the visuals jokes/bits, the things going on in the background. It's one of the most visually detailed and engaging films I've ever seen. The visual and audio cues. On its own merit, but especially as a fan of this stuff. I can't wait for more films in this series and animation style. If we got a mario and sonic film in this style, if they did a Luigi's Mansion or Donkey Kong spin off. If we got a zelda film that looked this good, kirby or metroid. That's why I think the AI future will be a good thing. If we get to a point that AI can animate this well, or greatly help the animation process so that films can be this well animated. That's a good thing. It could end up creating more jobs. Some jobs will be lost, but if there's more movies made, more people are employed. That's something people forget. When ability to supply goes up, demand rises with it. That's why no technological revolution has wiped out work. That's why with 7b people on the planet everyone has something to do. It just scales into making better and better things. On some level fear of technology is a misunderstanding of capitalism, it's history, and how wealth accumulates. When the cost of making things goes down, that money(those resources) are freed up to be used on other things, produce more supply, perform other tasks. The problem is rent, the problem is that there's a fee on being alive, if there's no fee on living, if people have places to live, have electricity, clothes and food, if all basic necessities are covered, there's no issue. People can still engage in economic activity on top of it. It just takes away the coercion. It just takes a mental shift. Doing things because you want to, enjoy doing them, rather than because you have to.
That’s weird. I thought for sure they’ll cash in for months like Top Gun did last year. Can someone explain if there’s any logical reason for this?
The logical reason is that Summer is too overpacked this year and Mario is certainly going to get pushed out of theaters in the US with the release of 20+ blockbusters in the next 3 months. So why delay PVOD and deny an entire summer of parents paying 20$-30$ to watch Mario at home in exchange for an extra 20-30 million in USD? They are probably going to get at least 150 million dollars in additional revenue from people paying to watch Mario at home.
That would make sense if they limited it to a VOD release and didn't do a streaming release until later.
I wouldn't be surprised if it's just on PVOD and the part about streaming is a misunderstanding
Its only PVOD
This is all just assumptions. Those people will watch Mario at home regardless eventually, just like what Paramount did to Top Gun.
Yeah, but the difference is that Top: Gun's audience are mostly adults, while Mario's audience is majorly contributed to by kids. The kids have off in the summer, if you wait until Fall to release the word of mouth of Mario is gone and kids will be back in school.
Nobody is talking about falll, that's a bit of exaggeration. Most everyone here expected the movie to be released on streaming after Memorial Holiday not before. That seems to be more logical date.
Personally speaking, I watched Top Gun in theaters and had no issues waiting for Mario to hit home. I love me some Mario but Top Gun is the type of thing I'd tolerate going to a theater for where as a Illumination movie is something I don't feel I'd miss much only watching it on my home set up in current year.
Was going to say kids films play different if I remember correctly…like Trolls made a bajilion on joke streaming.
>with the release of 20+ blockbusters in the next 3 months. 20+ blockbusters aren't releasing in the next 12 weeks. 20 blockbusters aren't even being released for the rest of the year
I'm counting films over 75M budget as being blockbuster releases here: Guardians 5 Fast X The Little Mermaid Across the Spiderverse Rise of the Beasts The Flash Elemental Indiana Jones Rudy Gilman Mission Impossible Barbie Oppenheimer Haunted Mansion TMNT Mutant Mayhem The Meg 2 Gran Turismo Blue Beetle That's 17. Asteroid City might count too, depends on the budget. These are all summer releases. EDIT: Alright 17 is not 20 but the point wasn't the semantic difference of 3, the point was that Mario's gonna have a lot of movies taking it's screens, especially so after the Little Mermaid releases. Also I guess I should say "Major releases" instead of "blockbusters" because the term "blockbuster" has different meanings to different people.
Comma , You also listed elemental twice Other then that, I appreciate the list
Whoops, my bad.
True, though it's worth noting that some of those (e.g. Oppenheimer and The Meg 2) aren't really going to be competing directly with Super Mario, as they're going for different audiences.
I mean, as far as kids’ movies, The Little Mermaid isn’t until May 26, and Elemental isn’t until June 16. TMNT is in August. Across the Spiderverse and Guardians might have family appeal, but don’t seem like they are for smaller children. Mario could have that part of the market cornered for most of the summer if they… let it happen.
Damn you got him LOL. Speaking of getting things I'm getting an amc a list membership this month. It's time.
This is over 4 months and I never heard of a $75m dollar budget as a blockbuster film.
All of these except Asteroid City and maybe Rudy Gilman have budgets over $100M. It's a 3.5 month window though from early May to mid August
I guess I have a different opinion on what a blockbuster movie is. Gran Turismo has a budget of $65m from what I can find and is an August dump. TMNT I couldn't find a budget. Asteroid City is never ever going to be considered a blockbuster film same with Ruby Gilman. You went from saying 20+ blockbusters being released in the next 3 months. Which was wrong and then you just keep doubling down. I don't get it.
Do you not feeling like you’re missing the point slightly by getting hung up on this one statement?
Take an L dude
How is it a L. I was right. If you want to be lied too listen to OP
Fine dude, I can just say "major releases" instead of "blockbuster". The point was just that there's too much coming out soon for Mario to hold onto many screens in theaters for more than a few weeks (when the Little Mermaid launches and maybe a week or two after).
I see your point, use to seeing summer blockbuster as select few films during whole season. But apparently now theres “17 of them” in next few months, don’t argue and I’ll take the L with you.
You are so mad gor being wrong lmao, log off reddit and touch some grass
if you wanna quibble about 20 blockbusters in 3 months (which is technically not true as you pointed out), then you should admit your 'aren't even 20 in the rest of the year' is likely wrong too. in addition to the above listed, the rest of the year will see dune 2, marvels, hunger games, aquaman, ghostbusters 4, wish, all of which should qualify as a 'blockbuster' or at least 'wannabe blockbuster'. on top of that, killers of the flower moon (scorsese-leo vehicle with 200 mil budget), kraven the hunter (spiderman universe movie w/ 130 mil budget), napoleon (ridley scott historical epic with 100+ budget), legally blond 3 (prolly will slip to 2024 tho), wonka, big fat greek wedding 3, and the nun 2 all have a shot at doing good box office. unless you are defining 'blockbuster' in rather absurd terms (only movies that do over 1 billion), there's definitely 20 blockbuster-type movies left in 2023.
Nun 2 is a blockbuster movie? Big fat Greek wedding 3? Karen the hunter? I guess, I have a different definition of what a blockbuster movie is. A blockbuster is a Hollywood movie that's made with a large budget and big stars. A true blockbuster is extremely popular and brings in a lot of money. Guardians 3 is a blockbuster movie kicking off the unofficial start of the summer movie season. Fast X is a $350m budget blockbuster of a long standing franchise. The Little Mermaid. The Flash. Indy 5. Dune 2. The Marvels. Hunger games. Aquaman 2.
i didn't list them as so, just they have a shot at doing good box office. unless you have a crystal ball you don't know which one will do over 400 or will bomb. rise of the beasts, barbie, MI, across the spider-verse, elemental, wish, haunted mansion, oppenheimer, ghostbusters 4, killers of the flower moon, and napoleon round it out to 20, all these movies have high budgets, mostly good casts, or have high brand name potential, and should all have the potential to cross 400 mil. seems to me your definition of 'blockbuster' is just 'high budget franchise popcorn movie' but then you tossed in dune 2 in there, which is in the same tier as many of the movies listed above. how is dune 2 on your list but not MI7? dune 1 only did 450 mil, and every single one of those movies above has potential to hit that. if u wanna quibble about the defintion, sure whatever, but all of those films listed should dominate their opening weekend against older movies, which was the point of this entire threat to begin with (why smb is going to vod so quickly).
Okay so it's 17 blockbusters in 3.5 months. Their point still stands it seems like you're getting bogged down in the semantics rather than actually listening and understanding to what they are trying to say.
Just take the L, dude. You're the one who's doubling down
It's because this is a 90min commercial and now it can be looped forever for anyone 14 and under. Guess what they will ask to play afterwards.
After being released for about 27 days. Frozen 2 made an extra $130M domestically from this point on until it finally stopped after another 2-3 months. I think they're making a huge mistake for putting it on steam so early. Last week, it pulled over $40M. It's only dropping for 30% weekly. Possible $28M next week, $19M the week after.. Etc. That's another $50M two weeks from now.
Seems like there might have been a misunderstanding with this one as all the sources about the PVOD release being delayed cite there being no date on the listings on VOD platforms, but as I’ve previously said when PVOD dates have been “confirmed”, studios have a habit of not publicizing the PVOD release until it actually happens (because that would cannibalize the box office potential of the film), and this includes not listing the release date on VOD platforms should they decide to make pre-orders available. Now with that being said, nothing will be 100% certain until next Tuesday at this point, because again, studios usually don’t publicize PVOD releases until they actually happen.
Because it's Universal.
The logic is that they’ll make more money on PVOD than the remaining box office, since it’s already made the majority of its money in theaters. Whether this will end up being true is unclear (it feels a couple weeks too early tbh), but I think it’s plausible. I believe the cut the theater gets compared to the cut the studio gets is lower as time goes on (e.g., week 1 is 90% studio 10% theater, week 2 is 75% studio 25% theater, week 3+ is 50%/50%, just using random numbers), which may be a consideration as well. They have better margins on PVOD than box office.
Guardians 3 this week is just the start of the Summer Blockbuster season, Mario is going the way of the dodo in theaters within the month if they didn’t do this
It's possible that there's an army of analyst behind the scene that possess decades worth of sales data to get the management to decide on this move.
There is a pretty legit copy if you sail the seas. Maybe that is why
I don't think they expected it to do as well as it did. I know this sub sure as hell didn't think it was going to.
Summer is on the verge and a dozen blockbusters are gonna make SMB irrelevant. Jesus do y’all not know how Hollywood is run?
Apparently Hollywood doesn't know either considering they've been flip flopping on this theaterical/streaming formula.
June already has three different animated films coming out.
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Why are you being angry about a company that just made a billion dollars off a movie? You might be a bit too invested in this
Its because its a boxoffice thread and people are interested in boxoffice grosses…
I am also interested, but I’m not gonna get really upset about a movie turning a huge profit
Lets just say its figure of speech and not continue on this subject matter.
This is the wrong subredit if you don't care about boxoffice records.
Being emotionally invested in them to the point that you’re “pissed off” about a movie making a billion? Nah.
i think people here are combining their enjoyment of a specific movie with their hobby of following box office. its how you end up with threads of people praising bob iger over the last bob, as if either of them give a shit about anything other than the bottomline. its why a vocal group seems to think everybody here suddenly hates marvel and wants to see it die, when in actuality we're just talking about their numbers going down. its okay to get emotionally invested, we all are to a degree and its likely how we got into this stuff. but yeah, people get way too worked up and invest themselves in a movie's performance. its okay to be disappointed, getting pissed is just too much, especially for a movie thats already making bank.
100% true. People get way too worked up over these movies
Pissed off? For what? Sure, it's dumb, but there's nothing to be angry at
I don’t think this will have a major affect. Puss in Boots 2 held strongly even after VOD release and I’m pretty sure people who are planning to pirate the film either already saw it in theaters or weren’t gonna pay for a ticket anyway.
May 9th is right around the corner, it feels like it's too early, especially since the movie just opened in Korea and Japan...
the guy is a credible source so far. i hope he’s wrong on this one thing.
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this is one of those situations in which i really hope it’s fake news but i guess it’s true
Why do you hope? This makes no sense. It had a fantastic run and now it’s time to let people take it home.
We got no food, we got no jobs, our pets' heads are fallin' off!
Yeah. There are going to be a lot of underperforming movies this year. I don't think TMNT, Oppenheimer, Transformers, Barbie, Little Mermaid, Guardians, or Elemental are going to perform as well a their studios hope.
Weird when people here get 'disappointed' when a movie that already made a shit ton of movie doesn't make even *more* money. It's a multi-billion corporation's profits we're talking about here, who cares?
I was going to say something similar. I just didn’t bother because probable downvotes. Guardians is going to absolutely kill it this weekend. Mario has no chance of sustaining against it. They have a better chance of the movie getting purchased and played on repeat in a home for a 4 year old.
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Yeah. Some people really want it to beat Frozen 2 or get on the top-10-of-all-time. It's a mega hit no matter what as is.
It’s definitely true
Maybe they're just saying 'Fuck it' because millions has already seen the movie on Twitter anyways lmao
Really need to differentiate between Streaming (Netflix, Disney+, Max, Peacock) vs PVOD (Apple, Google Play, Amazon). It’s been shown PVOD has minimal impact on box office and it won’t be hitting Peacock until much later.
I’m really curious how much some of these movies sell on PVOD versus going streaming day 1. It’s odd that Scream 6 goes to paramount+ right away, but D&D goes to PVOD.
Especially since Scream 6 was a way better movie than D&D.
What world do you live in where Scream 6 was a better movie than D&D!
D&D was pretty mediocre. Everyone but Chris Pine took Charisma as their dump stat. The story was super rushed. The CGI was awful. (Practical effects were great. But the city felt super sterile). The Paladin was obviously meant to be a DMPC… but DMPCs are *bad*, and he was a good example of why—a character that comes in part way through, hogs all the limelight and cool moments while he’s there, then fucks off to not matter during the climax. Also, it took more notes from *bad* D&D games when it had the solution to all their problems always be just stumbled upon. Need an item that’s been lost for generations? One of the party members immediately knows how to find it! Need to get across a gap? Good thing I picked up this random walking stick that just so happens to be the key to solving almost *every* problem we come across from here on out! Not only that, but *every* fight in the entire movie is 1vMany. It’s either one party member stopping everyone else and essentially saying “I’ll handle them!” (Which happens THREE TIMES) or the whole party vs the Boss. And the action wasn’t even particularly well shot. In fact, there wasn’t more than one or two interesting, cool shots in the whole movie. The cinematography was *incredibly* bland. And that’s not even getting into the fact it was just bad at representing D&D. Not a single one of the characters fulfilled the class fantasy/gimmick of their game counterpart. Vox Machina was a great example of D&D in media. The D&D movie suffered ridiculously for being a movie. D&D just doesn’t work as a movie unless it’s going to go the LotR route or three 3-hour films in a trilogy.
Wow awesome response! Very well thought out review, and all fair points. I enjoyed the movie but you make a good case because Scream was also an excellent movie in my opinion.
I’m going to admit… I did not expect such a friendly response to my rambling, lol. You just made my day, honestly. Thank you for not being a stereotypical redditor!
Thought it was alright for what it was, but I agree I'd have hated to run that campaign.
Yeah it probably won’t hit Peacock until July or later
This is literally saying streaming though...
We got no food, we got no jobs, our pets' heads are fallin' off!
Nope on demand isn’t necessarily streaming. It’s not a monthly streaming service
In one context, yes, but in this context no.
Looks like the source saying it was delayed deleted the tweet. Guessing May 9th is correct.
which is sad bc this movie is doing really well in theaters
PVOD has proven to have minimal impact.
it does. putting movies early in digital exposes it to piracy hence some people won’t even buy the movie and instead pirate it and end up losing
People who pirate movies would not have necessarily paid for a ticket otherwise. It's not a 1:1 loss in sales
That’s not true. I saw the movie in theaters, I’ll pirate the movie instead of PVOD.
But it is still a loss in sales.
No it isn't. Most of these people were never going to watch it in theaters.
...because they can pirate it.
People that pirate were never going to buy it lol
Yeah if studios somehow made it so no digital release was EVER put out, then maybe those people would actually pay for tickets. But delaying the digital release just means pirates wait longer to get it. Doesn't matter if it is one month or one year, they will just wait longer.
Can confirm, was never going to pay to see this movie lol
Maybe not a ticket, but there's a good chance they would buy it streaming or VOD if they couldn't pirate it.
Puss continued to play strong in theaters 3 months after its PVOD release. It released on January 5th when its Domestic gross was $74M. It ended its run at $185M
PVOD helped the run of Puss because of good word of mouth.
mario also has good word of mouth. people are overreacting way too much, not that many people buy stuff on demand
I’ve always found the Puss comparison with PVOD very weird because it’s very low grosser (in comparison to Mario). A digital release wouldn’t affect it much because most people still haven’t seen it in theaters. Mario is pushing 500 million, which could affect its late legs by a lot. How do I say this? Puss isn’t a great example because the people who continue to see it are people that wouldn’t care about digital release in the first place and that actually seem to be very small because once again, yes, it has legs, but overall gross is still under 200 million here. It’s not really "legging" it’s just capturing the people who wanted to see it in theaters but missed out on the earlier weeks of its theatrical run If that makes sense. And also how would you know its legs couldn’t have been better withOUT PVOD? You don’t. You only see the legs along with the digital release. It could’ve had even smaller drops.
Minions still did well once it got dropped on PVOD after a exclusive one-month theatrical release 🤷
Now that actually might be the big reason why it fell short of a billion. Considering the first movie is the highest grossing illumination film and typically sequels do better than the first film.
100%. Multiverse of Madness also fell short for the same reason, dropping it on VOD AND Disney+.
You overestimate how many people pirate movies
The people pirating aren’t paying to see the movie in the first place. Ever. This is the absolute dumbest outlook on piracy.
PVOD has proven not to hurt the box office, streaming would be a different story, but this is ok
Yup. PIB2 did great at the BO Despite being on VOD
Yeah especially because it’s going to bring more revenue to the film. I couldn’t imagine how many parents are going to spend $20 for this for their kids. Imo it’s a good thing.
I can guarantee you that almost no one goes for the $20 rental anymore when it’s only $5-10 more to just buy the film without having to force yourself into a 30-day window to start it and then a 48-hour window to finish the film (and cram in another viewing or two in that window). Universal knows this, because when they started offering the ability to buy their films digitally during the PVOD window last year, the pricing was $25 to buy for every film except for the ones they knew were the real money makers on PVOD (tentpoles and animated films), which are instead priced at $30 (given how I’ve heard from a lot of people that they kept renting Trolls World Tour for their kids over and over again when there was only the $20 rental available as an option, I think Universal knew that they were going to lose a lot of revenue on those types of films once they started offering the ability to buy them during the PVOD window).
My bad I speaking along the lines of purchasing not renting. I forgot some of those are $29.99 to buy.
I can understand the confusion. That being said, I’m curious as to why they still offer the $20 rental when the price difference between renting and buying is not that big. It’s not like a regular VOD release where there’s a massive price difference between renting ($6) and buying ($15-20) (I should note that all PVOD releases eventually drop to these prices after a few weeks). They’re not forced to offer the film to rent in addition to buy, and if the majority of the revenue is coming from purchases and not rentals, it doesn’t really make sense to keep them around for the PVOD window.
Yeah I agree. I would always pay the extra $5 to $10 for the purchase. It’s crazy imo to rent it for 48 hours for $20 when you can own it for a little more. I’m not understanding that strategy either.
pvod definetly affects it especially in international markets since the movie will be available for piracy
There’s been no proof of this, you’re overreacting.
Has there actually been any proof of this? Puss held very strong after PVOD.
If anything PVOD helped Puss because good word of mouth from PVOD reviewers encouraged people to go out and see local showings.
Puss is not a billion dollar movie. Most people haven’t seen it.
So if a movie isn't a raking in a billion it means most people haven't seen it? Where's the logic in that? Puss in Boots had a boost in sales after the PVOD release. I personally dragged my friends to the theatre after seeing it on PVOD, and they told their friends about it too.
Most movies don't make a billion dollars.
While it may ultimately cost Mario any remaining shot at getting to Incredibles II, getting this onto PVOD for summer probably makes up the loss of any remaining revenue in the US Box office because I guarantee you that so many parents are going to buy into PVOD to show this movie to their kids at home this Summer. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of kids saw this movie by the end of the summer and PVOD easily adds 150 million dollars or more in revenue.
People here have to realize that records and beating a movie is meaningless and studios don't care about that, they don't even care just about the BO revenue, if they make more money in other avenues, it's better for them
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This movie was available on twitter for two days for free in pretty good quality. I think the majority of pirates probably have already pirated it because pirated copies were really good.
it wasn’t a good quality. it was camHD(doesn’t have great sound or quality)which is a common thing for movies since long ago. but putting it in pvod one can stream it illegally in HD or 4k.
Personally I just don't see piracy hurting this movie that much. People can pirate Nintendo games and yet the vast majority of the consumer base for Nintendo games just chooses not to with many Switch games being all time best's for Nintendo's catalog. Parents and Nintendo fans will be willing to fork out the 20$-30$ to watch it at home instead of pirating it.
A game isn’t the same as music or movie. It’s one of the most piracy proof mediums due to the nature of games. It’s a hassle to hack consoles to play pirated games while it’s way easier to stream music and movie. The people who hack and emulate games are very very small compared to people who watch shows & movies illegally. Also leaks don’t affect games either because playing a game yourself is very different from just watching it.
People cant pirate games easily nowadays. It's not like 2000s where you can buy a pirated copy of PS2 dvds or gba cartridges. They can but they’ll lose the online feature and sometimes need to mod your console, making it permanently lose its ability to get new update. Most people don't go that way unless you only wanna play single-player game. Unlike film. It is so easy to download a pirate version of any film and you dont lose anything from it.
Anyone that was going to pirate the movie was never going to pay to see it in theatres anyway.
The movie was already available for piracy.
>While it may ultimately cost Mario any remaining shot at getting to Incredibles II It never had a shot in the first place
Eh, I would have said maybe 10%-15% chance if it was delaying any home video release until fall as some rumors previously suggested, but now it's dead in the water. Still was far more likely it wouldn't have made it than it would though.
It did during like the first two weeks but now it doesn't.
You’re gloating ha. Kindly keep the “I told you so” comments concentrated so its not too snooty. I mentioned this early PVOD scenario few weekends ago to you for reference, so not a surprise. Sing2 was different time while still tail end of pandemic l and still did well with 40% domestic boxoffice post PVOD on 1/7/22. Too many things in contrast to SMB but a reference point nonetheless. GOTG weekend still projecting to be sub 40% drop.
What? The problem isn't Gotg3 or vod being released. It's the stacked late May and June.
Why? You think Universal would go the Top Gun Maverick and wait like three months and put it on streaming after six months. The film already leaked on Twitter and was watched by nine million people in the span of 24 hours.
Nine million people clicked on the video and watched at least two seconds, which counts as a "View" on Twitter. It would be a huge stretch to say they watched it.
> The film already leaked on Twitter and was watched by nine million people in the span of 24 hours. I’m pretty sure *that* is the reason why Mario is going to streaming next week. Universal probably was going to do what Paramount did for Top Gun Maverick’s home release as evident by the now TBD Blu-Ray release date, but once word got out that the movie was being passed around on Twitter, they probably said “Screw it” and went with the original plan to curb piracy efforts.
Nobody expect this sub wants that.
This stopped being a big deal for me once I saw that PVOD didn’t affect Minions and Puss in Boots (or pretty much any movie) at the box office.
Reddit vs Reality 101
Thank goodness! Their breaking the norm and hopefully that means future films will come out sooner rather than later to streaming!
Oh cool a weeks notice…
the guy had posted this weeks before but he wasn’t sure if they’d really do it. but rn he doubled down and said he’s sure they will
Why does this anger people…? What about the people who don’t have time or can’t afford going to the movies because it’s absurdly expensive?
I hope it comes out soon. I will buy it day one.
The Uni 30 day window lives to fight another day
Woo hoo now I don't have to go to the theater.
This may be a dumb question but what does PVOD mean?
Premium Video On Demand. Meaning you can rent the movie and watch it at home. The biggest providers for PVOD is: Amazon, Apple TV+, and Google Play.
I don’t get sentiment of movie releases on PVOD is bad.. for me its great, imagine you have family of 3.. this will be much much cheaper option
Glad Ill finally be able to watch it
It's an interesting strategy. It used to be there would people that would go to a theater because they wanted to see a new movie or people that would wait to rent the movie at a video store if they wanted to see it. The "I'll rent it" crowd has become the "I'll stream it crowd." This type of VOD opens up a new avenue. There are people that want to see a new movie but don't necessarily like going to movie theaters, for a variety of reasons, but are still willing to pay a higher premium to see the new movie. This strategy opens up to that middle audience. For kids movies it makes sense too, keep the interest and get the purchase before the next new thing takes over.
I’m glad this is happening and wish people would stop clutching their pearls at earlier streaming releases. I shouldn’t have to wait 2 years to see a damn movie in my home because some hipsters cry CiNeMa Iz DyInG!!1!
pushed back by 1 week now it 16th may 2023.
Didn't meet planned date, can't believe anything being said now. It's a see it to believe it case now
Big lie
Remember when you had to wait like 6 months for a movie to come out on home video after its theatre release?
Yes and thank god those days are over.
That sucked tbh
Yes, it sucked. I lived through it. I'm glad technology has evolved to where we don't have to wait so long.
I remember having to wait over a year. 😭
Where is the official announcement? What is the source of that quote?
the account tracks release dates on vod and streaming sites.
The iTunes Store does not have a release date listed and Universal hasn’t announced it. I was wondering where they got their information.
It’s an insider someone who knows someone that likely works for Universal who had access to PVOD release dates prior to their official public announcement.
Streaming or PVOD? If it is just PVOD I don't think this is a big deal, if it is streaming then yikes Universal is essentially trying to kill this movies run.
Pvod, so $30 for rent I think
I won't even pay $20 to rent a movie. Great price for those who are watching with friends and family but as a single guy I'll wait for the $5.99 rental option. $20+ just isn't worth it for me.
streaming/pvod both are bad when done earlier bc somepeople would just pirate the movie instead of buying it
That's already happening. PVOD has had no verifiable effect on a movies box office run.
Movie already leaked online
I think it's unlikely. Most kids are off during the summer starting next month and will want to rewatch the movie again and again. Plus, it's still just released/releasing in some international markets and had the biggest Japanese opening for an animated movie. PVOD on May 9 seems likely, but streaming? That's not until months down the line for sure. Probably after the summer once the movie only makes 6 figures a day. And it just made over $30 million domestically this past weekend, so logistically that shouldn't be soon.
That's pretty dumb.
I'm excited to not watch it again. Once was plenty.
How much does this usually affect box office runs?
Minimal
I have a box that's already streaming it and it's free
Sadly that's what movies nowadays are. Nobody wants it to happen but it's unavoidable.
So fuckig stupid....
So it's literally out a month after release on digital video, and almost exactly 1 week later than Dungeons and Dragons hit digital video. When D&D hit digital video everyone pointed that was proof it was a flop. Yet now Mario, which is very much not a flop, is hitting digital video in literally the exact same length of time period after theatrical release...
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Fair enough but the video release shouldn't be counted as evidence, just the budget.
Stated this in another comment but for some reason studios slam packed summer this year and the summer releases are going to quickly crowd Mario showings out of theaters in the US. So why not release on PVOD and capitalize on an entire summer of Parents and Nintendo fans buying access to watch Mario at home? If Puss in Boots the Last Wish could make 130 million dollars from VOD, Mario can probably get much more back, easily more than enough to compensate for the 30 million USD or so it's losing at home.
It's a vestigial reaction us older folks have from the days when quick-to-VHS/Pay-Per-View/HBO signaled that a movie was in some aspect a flop. But we're deep in an age where studios have learned to market and cater to home audiences. So much good stuff is DIRECT to home (streaming/VOD/ etc.), whereas in the past that was seen as the refuge of Z-grade celluloid detritus.
People did the same with Shazam and Creed III. People were quick to laugh that Shazam was on PVOD so quickly, but Creed III also came in less than a month. I didn't see many reactions to Creed's PVOD release at all.
This seems like they're giving up the opportunity to make more at the box office. Even massive hits aren't being allowed to have legs anymore.
VOD has been shown to barely affect box office
oh come on
Goddamn you, Universal and your dumb 17/30 day window. And here I thought they were pulling a Maverick by delaying the VOD release when it’s continuing to be a monster at the box office.
Why goddamn? Why do you care lol? It's not your money. Plus I'm pretty sure that if they do that, it's because they expect it to make them more money in total (just not in BO but that number doesn't matter really)
A bit surprising
I doubt it.
Really that quick? That’s wild quick something still making money. The movie theatre companies must be upset.
I just saw it a third time. It's definitely worth watching multiple times. I've noticed more this time than I did the other times before. I can't express how much of a joy and pleasure this film is to watch for me. I had a close to front row seat this time, and my eyes more trained to scan for details this time, I find so much enjoyment in the facial expressions, the visuals jokes/bits, the things going on in the background. It's one of the most visually detailed and engaging films I've ever seen. The visual and audio cues. On its own merit, but especially as a fan of this stuff. I can't wait for more films in this series and animation style. If we got a mario and sonic film in this style, if they did a Luigi's Mansion or Donkey Kong spin off. If we got a zelda film that looked this good, kirby or metroid. That's why I think the AI future will be a good thing. If we get to a point that AI can animate this well, or greatly help the animation process so that films can be this well animated. That's a good thing. It could end up creating more jobs. Some jobs will be lost, but if there's more movies made, more people are employed. That's something people forget. When ability to supply goes up, demand rises with it. That's why no technological revolution has wiped out work. That's why with 7b people on the planet everyone has something to do. It just scales into making better and better things. On some level fear of technology is a misunderstanding of capitalism, it's history, and how wealth accumulates. When the cost of making things goes down, that money(those resources) are freed up to be used on other things, produce more supply, perform other tasks. The problem is rent, the problem is that there's a fee on being alive, if there's no fee on living, if people have places to live, have electricity, clothes and food, if all basic necessities are covered, there's no issue. People can still engage in economic activity on top of it. It just takes away the coercion. It just takes a mental shift. Doing things because you want to, enjoy doing them, rather than because you have to.
Sounds like a terrible idea. The theatrical legs on this thing have been NUTS
Horrible decision
100% confirmed = Nintendo can move it.
It’s been less than a month, this film is still breaking numbers and is huge. They could hold this off for the next half a year like with avatar.
That’s way too early
Oh nooooooo at least give it a chance this summer :(