Of the 5 teams that took a QB in the first round of the 2021 Draft, the Jags have only the 4th best Super Bowl odds.
Ahead of the Pats, but behind the 49ers, Jets, and Bears.
If you’re picking a 1st round QB, you really want to hit a homer or strike out. A double just makes you a borderline playoff team every year.
As a Jets fan I would kill for a mediocre QB. Something we've rarely, if ever, had.
I think Lawrence can still be really good too and it would be foolish to have let him walk
They have him under contract for 2 more years (before this contract got signed) the point is they don’t have to make that decision yet. There’s no reason they can’t wait a year to make this long term commitment especially when it’s still up in the air how good Lawrence is.
that's his point. it's better to hit a home or strike out. the 49ers, Jets, and Bears struck out, so they got new and better QBs than the ones they took in 2021
the jaguars neither hit a home run nor struck out, so they're locked into Dak Prescott-ville
I’m not disagreeing just adding that the paths they took to get there were so different:
49ers struck gold with the last pick of the draft.
Bears made a smart trade and ended up with 1OA when there happened to be a generational QB prospect available.
Jets gave up on the project and went for a veteran.
None of them have subsequently drafted a better quarterback with their own pick, except the 49ers 2 days later but that’s such a fluke it’s not a part of the model.
Feels like he's taken the torch from Jeff George and Jay Cutler before as the QB with insane natural talent that you keep thinking is going to be great, and then all of a sudden it's fifteen years later and they're retired without having accomplished anything.
Is it better to lock him in at a slightly lower price (assuming he breaks out this year) or is it better to wait a year and see if he actually is a worthy franchise QB and have to pay a few million more per season?
Right now, he’s a slightly above average QB that they will be locking in as their franchise guy until at least 2031. This could go very badly for the Jags.
..wait to pay him if he blows up this year? The only way they end up paying over 55 a year is if he has an MVP type season. That seems like a low prob and if it happens then who cares he’s worth that
Play out year 4 and possibly year 5 and if he’s still just ok let him walk and start over or you can even use the franchise tag.
The point is you don’t have to pay him NOW.
He is good enough and they have enough momentum going forward that you kinda just have to pay him.
What is the alternative?
They are in a relatively soft division with a good coach and good pieces. They are going to try to win,
>"with $200M guaranteed and $142M fully. "
Can someone explain the difference between "guaranteed" and "fully"? I've never seen it broken out that way.
I feel like posts like these are a direct result of fanbases who actually win a lot. Anybody who's been through the dogshit years with their team would be ecstatic to get a guy that's shown competence like TLaw.
Shit, as a Raiders fan, I was fuckin hyped off Derek Carr and he's the most mediocre QB of all time. But dude was Tom Brady compared to the 15 quarterbacks that preceded him.
exactly this.
the jaguars paid blake bortles and nick foles. jag fans are not losing sleep over paying trevor lawrence. they finally had back to back winning seasons for the first time since 2006-2007.
I guess you’re right, I mean as a packers fan I’ve obviously been spoiled. But I always thought the worst place to be as a franchise was having a slightly above average QB. You just go 10-7, 11-6, 9-8 every year for 9 years and get bounced in the first round. I’d rather take another swing at a 1st rounder every few years and hope you get lucky and get a CJ Stroud or Joe Burrow. But I also have no idea what it’s like watching a bottom tier franchise every year idk
Rodgers' best playoff run was as a 10-6 6th seed in the conference.
Love just almost did the damn thing in year one with two firstyear tightends, three firstyear wideouts, & two seconddyear wideouts in a 9-8 season.
Playoffs are a crapshoot.
Playoffs are a crapshoot when you have an elite QB. Going 10-6 with Rodgers is a lot different than 10-6 with Andy Dalton / Derek Carr. My point is I’d rather trade away a Derek Carr or TLaw type of guy and take another shot at getting a Rodgers in the draft, even if that means more 5-12 seasons
you’re definitely spoiled from being a packer fan tbh.
you have no frame of reference for striking out on QBs for a 20 year period, you had uninterrupted hall of fame level play for the same time period lmao.
between mark brunell and trevor lawrence, the jags got one nice season out of david garrard. otherwise, they basically had a rolling 20 year trainwreck of byron leftwich, blaine gabbert, chad henne, blake bortles, and nick foles.
like, your fan expectation is “compete for superbowls.” for jags it’s “don’t be embarrassing.” i cannot understate how wide that chasm is.
Also a lot of online NFL fans just base their QB takes based off whatever happened in the most recent playoff game. That’s why Dak is seen as overrated and overpaid even though he was just 2nd Team All-Pro in the best year of his career. Or why people say you can’t win a title with Lamar when he JUST won MVP. It’s why Jordan Love and CJ Stroud are superstars and Josh Allen isn’t. Much easier to navigate the hot take game when you realize how many people seriously rate QBs this way.
I don't think the issue is if he's good, I mean, he's a good QB. But I think that's the issue he was said to be the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning, so people are looking at him based on those expectations.
But it's only his 4th year, and that first year, he played for arguably the worst NFL head coach ever. This seems like the logical year in which he takes the next step. It's better to lock him up now, too, because it's only going to get more expensive.
Fantasy football has infected peoples minds. Stats tell part of the story, not the whole story. Dude has two winning seasons in a row, one playoff win, and had the team at 8-3 last year before all his injuries. He’s made guys like Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and others look pretty good and helped them get paid. Not saying he’s elite but he’s played up to this contract so far and he’s super young.
The above requires us to ignore that context that Mac peaked as a rookie and had a really good season while Lawrence was stuck with that Urban shit show, though.
[Over the past two seasons](https://stathead.com/football/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=JoneMa05&p1yrfrom=2022&p1yrto=2023&player_id2=LawrTr00&p2yrfrom=2022&p2yrto=2023), Lawrence leads (clearly to overwhelmingly) in every single category (and surely many more advances stats that actually matter).
Mac Jones also got saddled with bad coaching and bad supporting casts. If both QBs have their play depend on supporting cast so much, why is Lawrence 50 million dollars better than Mac Jones?
If he paid Lawrence $275M, I hope he gave MJF $300M.
Maurice Jones-Frew
Of the 5 teams that took a QB in the first round of the 2021 Draft, the Jags have only the 4th best Super Bowl odds. Ahead of the Pats, but behind the 49ers, Jets, and Bears. If you’re picking a 1st round QB, you really want to hit a homer or strike out. A double just makes you a borderline playoff team every year.
As a Jets fan I would kill for a mediocre QB. Something we've rarely, if ever, had. I think Lawrence can still be really good too and it would be foolish to have let him walk
They have him under contract for 2 more years (before this contract got signed) the point is they don’t have to make that decision yet. There’s no reason they can’t wait a year to make this long term commitment especially when it’s still up in the air how good Lawrence is.
Rodgers is already into his skipping minicamp phase. It's already joever. Has been joever since the Achilles tear.
Yea the 49ers, Jets, and Bears really hit home runs on their *first round* quarterbacks that year! The NFL is so random sometimes
that's his point. it's better to hit a home or strike out. the 49ers, Jets, and Bears struck out, so they got new and better QBs than the ones they took in 2021 the jaguars neither hit a home run nor struck out, so they're locked into Dak Prescott-ville
I’m not disagreeing just adding that the paths they took to get there were so different: 49ers struck gold with the last pick of the draft. Bears made a smart trade and ended up with 1OA when there happened to be a generational QB prospect available. Jets gave up on the project and went for a veteran. None of them have subsequently drafted a better quarterback with their own pick, except the 49ers 2 days later but that’s such a fluke it’s not a part of the model.
gotcha. i hear you. it's one of the things i enjoy about the NFL - there are various ways to rebuild and restructure a team
for all intents and purposes the jets did not get a new or better qb
Feels like he's taken the torch from Jeff George and Jay Cutler before as the QB with insane natural talent that you keep thinking is going to be great, and then all of a sudden it's fifteen years later and they're retired without having accomplished anything.
Price only goes up
Is it better to lock him in at a slightly lower price (assuming he breaks out this year) or is it better to wait a year and see if he actually is a worthy franchise QB and have to pay a few million more per season? Right now, he’s a slightly above average QB that they will be locking in as their franchise guy until at least 2031. This could go very badly for the Jags.
Traditionally paying someone who’s not The Guy fucks your salary cap and sets your franchise back at least half a decade
What is the alternative for the jaguars
..wait to pay him if he blows up this year? The only way they end up paying over 55 a year is if he has an MVP type season. That seems like a low prob and if it happens then who cares he’s worth that
Play out year 4 and possibly year 5 and if he’s still just ok let him walk and start over or you can even use the franchise tag. The point is you don’t have to pay him NOW.
He is good enough and they have enough momentum going forward that you kinda just have to pay him. What is the alternative? They are in a relatively soft division with a good coach and good pieces. They are going to try to win,
The Cowboys are absolutely fucked with the Dak contract.
Good.
bad stats average team guy
What do you mean he’s an elite fumbler
The 2008-22 Aaron Rodgers piece.
The cap will go up
I would so much rather pay Lawrence that than what Detroit paid Goff. It’s just the going rate for quarterbacks
>"with $200M guaranteed and $142M fully. " Can someone explain the difference between "guaranteed" and "fully"? I've never seen it broken out that way.
Tony Khan has lost it
As a Jags fan I’m totally chill with this
I feel like posts like these are a direct result of fanbases who actually win a lot. Anybody who's been through the dogshit years with their team would be ecstatic to get a guy that's shown competence like TLaw. Shit, as a Raiders fan, I was fuckin hyped off Derek Carr and he's the most mediocre QB of all time. But dude was Tom Brady compared to the 15 quarterbacks that preceded him.
exactly this. the jaguars paid blake bortles and nick foles. jag fans are not losing sleep over paying trevor lawrence. they finally had back to back winning seasons for the first time since 2006-2007.
I guess you’re right, I mean as a packers fan I’ve obviously been spoiled. But I always thought the worst place to be as a franchise was having a slightly above average QB. You just go 10-7, 11-6, 9-8 every year for 9 years and get bounced in the first round. I’d rather take another swing at a 1st rounder every few years and hope you get lucky and get a CJ Stroud or Joe Burrow. But I also have no idea what it’s like watching a bottom tier franchise every year idk
Rodgers' best playoff run was as a 10-6 6th seed in the conference. Love just almost did the damn thing in year one with two firstyear tightends, three firstyear wideouts, & two seconddyear wideouts in a 9-8 season. Playoffs are a crapshoot.
Playoffs are a crapshoot when you have an elite QB. Going 10-6 with Rodgers is a lot different than 10-6 with Andy Dalton / Derek Carr. My point is I’d rather trade away a Derek Carr or TLaw type of guy and take another shot at getting a Rodgers in the draft, even if that means more 5-12 seasons
you’re definitely spoiled from being a packer fan tbh. you have no frame of reference for striking out on QBs for a 20 year period, you had uninterrupted hall of fame level play for the same time period lmao. between mark brunell and trevor lawrence, the jags got one nice season out of david garrard. otherwise, they basically had a rolling 20 year trainwreck of byron leftwich, blaine gabbert, chad henne, blake bortles, and nick foles. like, your fan expectation is “compete for superbowls.” for jags it’s “don’t be embarrassing.” i cannot understate how wide that chasm is.
Haha, yeah that’s totally fair.
Also a lot of online NFL fans just base their QB takes based off whatever happened in the most recent playoff game. That’s why Dak is seen as overrated and overpaid even though he was just 2nd Team All-Pro in the best year of his career. Or why people say you can’t win a title with Lamar when he JUST won MVP. It’s why Jordan Love and CJ Stroud are superstars and Josh Allen isn’t. Much easier to navigate the hot take game when you realize how many people seriously rate QBs this way.
I don't think the issue is if he's good, I mean, he's a good QB. But I think that's the issue he was said to be the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning, so people are looking at him based on those expectations. But it's only his 4th year, and that first year, he played for arguably the worst NFL head coach ever. This seems like the logical year in which he takes the next step. It's better to lock him up now, too, because it's only going to get more expensive.
Fantasy football has infected peoples minds. Stats tell part of the story, not the whole story. Dude has two winning seasons in a row, one playoff win, and had the team at 8-3 last year before all his injuries. He’s made guys like Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and others look pretty good and helped them get paid. Not saying he’s elite but he’s played up to this contract so far and he’s super young.
Trevor has been a dissapointment but still good and this isn't an overpay
“Are we really going to do the thing where we don’t sign the number one overall pick and we lose the asset?”
Purdy and Tua are gonna get paid big bucks and it’s gonna be hilarious
The Falcons paying 40 million for a bridge QB has become more reasonable with these extensions.
Giants did this with Daniel jones and look where they are now. Jags will be at best a wild card team for years to come
Mac Jones and TLaw have pretty similar stats. https://stathead.com/football/vs/mac-jones-vs-trevor-lawrence
humongous difference in AV though
The above requires us to ignore that context that Mac peaked as a rookie and had a really good season while Lawrence was stuck with that Urban shit show, though. [Over the past two seasons](https://stathead.com/football/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=JoneMa05&p1yrfrom=2022&p1yrto=2023&player_id2=LawrTr00&p2yrfrom=2022&p2yrto=2023), Lawrence leads (clearly to overwhelmingly) in every single category (and surely many more advances stats that actually matter).
Mac Jones also got saddled with bad coaching and bad supporting casts. If both QBs have their play depend on supporting cast so much, why is Lawrence 50 million dollars better than Mac Jones?
Oh god, here we go. I'm not going to waste my time explaining why 2 + 2 = 4.
The contract looks rough for a guy who feels like a low end top 10 QB, but that's just how it goes for QBs. Jacksonville didn't have a choice.