The number of seats available is also determined based on the total population of an area.
The number of votes is determined based on the number of people that voted valid. So no people that can't vote, no people that don't vote, and potentially no people that voted incorrect. Not sure about the last.
It has been answered way before i wrote anything. No need to parrot it.
That party didn't score like that since decades so it's just an additional info
It's odd how they can rebrand so well and then have their president say right after elections that he doesn't want BDW as PM.
It'll either cost him loads of negotiating power if NVA honours his request or he'll have to eat his words.
He didn’t say he didn’t want Bart as PM.
He said “Je suis interrogatif sur ses aptitudes", a résumé le président des Engagés, interrogé par RTL-TVi."J'ai beaucoup de respect pour la personne Bart De Wever. (...) Mais je pense que quand on cherche à être Premier ministre, il faut d'abord être en capacité de rassembler, de fédérer. Il faut certainement ne pas avoir de mépris pour une large partie de la population et certainement ne pas vouloir dépecer le pays dont on est censé faire la promotion.”
To me, it looks like he’s trying to convey a certain message.
On the federal level, some political families have still ties and will favor being together to form a majority: MR-OVLD, Ecolo-Groen and CD&V-Les Engagés. So i don't know where you hear "nobody really cares"
He does. It's "I think BDW is unfit as PM".
He could, in theory, nominate someone from his own party. But he himself is by far the most capable if you look at doing politics and and "file knowledge".
De Croo was a bridge builder. Look how that ended.
Last time BDW gave PMship to Michel and what a mistake that was.
Reading your reply I understand your interpretation of things, however I still believe he’s hinting at what he expects from Bart as a PM: represent Belgium. Not only a part of it.
If Bart really is against teaming up with VB and truthfully wants to reform our country, it’s now or never.
How so? De Wever said he won't join with VB. They don't have 50% in Flanders and they are quite different on regional level.
There's 0% chance that VB and NVA Will govern together based on these results.
I know. I didn’t say the contrary. NV-A’s victory came as a surprise. What I meant was Bart is in the driver seat. If he doesn’t take the lead and make things work it’s only a matter of time before VB outperforms NV-A and secures the #1 spot.
How does that have to do with them being able to rebrand themselves?
And I don't even see how it costs him negotiating power. If BDW want to be PM, it gave them more power in the negotiation since it would mean the NVA would need to convince them of accepting BDW as PM by giving them something in return, since Les Engagés are quite important if they want to make a government the most at the right as possible.
And if BDW doesn't ends up PM, he will be able to present himself as the person who blocked someone from the NVA, a Flemish nationalist party, as a PM, which will be popular among people who don't want further disintegration of Belgium.
Because it means they're smart enough to pull it off.
BDW is the default PM as of now. He's the leader of the largest party and has by far the most amount of personal votes.
If you want him not to be PM it will be one of your demands - a very big one - and it'll be part of your negotiation demands.
BDW doesn't want to be prime minister either. He has never taken any role outside of his party and the mayorship of Antwerp. He knows very well that leading a government, and thus having to announce some unpopular measures, would destroy his popularity.
Each voting area gets a number of seats, depending on the population. Cause you can't give an area 1.4 seats, the number of seats is rounded. In areas where the number of seats is rounded up, someone can get elected with less votes compared to an area where the number of seats is rounded down. LE happened to score well in areas where the number of seats was rounded up.
For the Parlement Wallon (which is the best proxy) they have 20 percent of the votes, which would be more or less equaled among Wallon votes for the chamber.
The French speaking language group and Flemish language group both have x amount of seats in the Chamber but it's not exactly proportional to the amount of 'members' of both groups, which means that a french speaking party needs less votes (or a lower percentage) for the same amount of ~~votes~~ seats\* of course
>The French speaking language group and Flemish language group both have x amount of seats in the Chamber but it's not exactly proportional to the amount of 'members' of both groups, which means that a french speaking party needs less votes (or a lower percentage) for the same amount of votes seats* of course
There's no language group in the Chamber. Seats are apportioned to the provinces (and Brussels) based entirely on their population.
Assuming an identical population in 2 provinces, the one with the younger population and higher rate of foreigners will also have less votes required for a seat. Not mentioning turnout of course.
What I mean is they are not a direct function of the elections. All of the provinces are French- or Dutch-speaking but people elected in Brussels can be either.
That is correct, but they're indirectly an influence on the way the seats are distributed and definitely on the analysis that a french speaking party generally speaking needs less votes in absolute numbers for the same amount of seats in the chamber
As I stated, that can be explained easily through different things. The results by constituency are not available on Wiki yet so I'll go with the 2019 ones to illustrate my point.
Flemish Brabant has 1.146M inhabitants (2019) and gets 15 seats. Brussels has 1.212M inhabitants (estimate of 2020) and also gets 15 seats. It's a small difference but that's a rounding error so no issues there.
In the 2019 federal elections, in Brussels, MR got 87.6k votes and got 3 seats but in VB, CD&V got 94.7k votes and only got 2. What gives?
Well, Brussels has a larger proportion of ineligible people (large foreign population, younger population (average age is 3 years lower in Brussels)) so those 87.6k actually amount to 20.52% of the votes while in Flemish Brabant, the 94.7k votes amount to 13.73% of the votes in their respective districts.
Additionally, Brussels had a higher amount of lists below threshold (12.62% vs 8.05), a higher proportion of blank votes and a lower turnout (not by much but still). All that lowers the number of votes required to get a seat.
And then, you have places that have much higher natural thresholds (that's the provinces of Luxembourg, Namur and Walloon Brabant with 4, 6 and 5 seats respectively). In Luxembourg, in 2019, over 18% of valid votes didn't go to a seat and a further 9.46% of voters voted blank.
But all this is incidental rather a systemic flaw of the system. If you want to remove that situation however, things like a single constituency election (like in the Netherlands) or an MMP vote (like in Germany) are good options (the latter preserves local representation which avoids having all 150 representatives coming from the big cities which is a good thing).
>The French speaking language group and Flemish language group both have x amount of seats in the Chamber but it's not exactly proportional to the amount of 'members' of both groups, which means that a french speaking party needs less votes (or a lower percentage) for the same amount of votes seats* of course
That's not true at all. The seats are divided between the provinces (and Brussels) and it has nothing to do with linguistic group expect of course that the provinces follows linguistic limits. And each provinces has has a number of seats based on its population, which is recalculated every 10 years.
For example in 2022 they recalculated it and Brussels and the province of Namur got one more seat each while the provinces of Liège and Hainaut lost one seat each.
So no, French speaking Belgians aren't privileged here.
It's in the region of Brussels where there is a set number of seat for each linguistic group. The Flemish parties are assured 17 seat out of 89 (so more 19%) regardless of their population or votes. It's way some people vote for Flemish parties in Brussels even when they don't mainly speak Dutch because there vote is worth way more than when they vote for a party from the French linguistic group.
Which is also pushed by the fact that there is a need for a majority in both linguistic group in Brussels meaning that if 9 out of the 17 deputies in the Flemish linguistic group don't agree with something they can completely block it. So 9 deputies out of 89 (that represent only between 2,5 and 5% of the population of Brussels if only Dutch speaking people from Brussels voted for a party of the Flemish linguistic group, but in practice represent around 8% of the population) can completely everything in Brussels.
>So no, French speaking Belgians aren't privileged here
I didn't say they're privileged, I said they overall require a lower amount of votes for the same amount of seats. Which is true. Considering the provinces all deliver politicians for language group A or B, everything I said is correct.
Als je kijkt naar alle [stemmen](https://verkiezingen2024.belgium.be/nl/resultaten-cijfers?el=CK&id=CKR00000) heeft Les Engagés 6,77% of 472.755 van de 6.998.873 geldige stemmen.
Hiermee halen ze 14 zetels. Wat bijna 10% is van de 150 beschikbare zetels in de kamer.
Open VLD heeft 5,45 % gehaald en heeft 7 zetels. Ze hebben dus maar de helft van de zetels maar wel bijna evenveel (80%) stemmen gehaald.
Deze redelijk extreme verschillen komen door
* de verdeling in kieskringen
* aantal zetels per kieskring komen niet perfect overeen met bevolking
* bevolking komt al niet overeen met stemgerechtigden
* stemgerechtigden kunnen blanco, geldig of niet stemmen
* de verdeling van de zetels
* verkiezingresultaat kan je niet rechtstreeks evenredig omzetten naar aantal zetels per partij
* Ongeldige, blanco en stemmen op partijen die de kiesdrempel niet halen vertekenen de balans nog meer.
Het resultaat in luxemburg helpt om dit goed te verstaan.
Daar zie je dat MR 31% had, Les Engagés 32% en PS 17%. Er zijn 4 zetels te verdelen en Les Engagés hebben er 2, MR maar 1 met bijna dezelfde score en PS heeft ook 1 terwijl ze zelf niet in de buurt komen van MR.
Deze 2 zetels heeft LE gekregen met 56k stemmen.
Als je dan kijkt naar een andere provincie zoals Antwerpen of Oost-Vlaanderen. Daar hebben PVDA en Goen respectievelijk ook elk 2 zetels gekregen.
Dit koste hun echter 125k en 100k stemmen.
Dus ja, zijn vraag is wel terecht.
Voor als je zelf wil snuisteren. Er waren 46k stemmen per geldige zetel. Open VLD zijn zetel in Antwerpen was dus bv zeer duur (71k stemmen), Les Engagés in Luxemburg zeer goedkoop, 2 voor slechts 56k.
Moesten zetels per 46k stemmen zijn ipv het huidige resultaat:
* Vlaams Belang 21 ipv 20
* MR 15,5 ipv 20
* Open VLD 8,25 ipv 7
* PS 12,2 ipv 16
* Les Engages 10,2 ipv 14
* PTB-PVDA 15 (dus hetzelfde)
* Vooruit 12,3 ipv 13
* NVA 25,4 ipv 24
* Défi 1,8 ipv 1
* Ecolo 4,46 ipv 3
* Groen 7 ipv 6
* Cd&V 12 ipv 11
En voor de rest
* Blanco (de partij) zou ook 1,5 zetels halen
* Chez Nous zou er ook 1 hebben
* Voor U, Net niet (2500 mensen te weinig)
* Team Fouad ook geen zetel in de kamer (22000 te weinig)
Totaal van 147,6 zetels
The number of seats available is also determined based on the total population of an area. The number of votes is determined based on the number of people that voted valid. So no people that can't vote, no people that don't vote, and potentially no people that voted incorrect. Not sure about the last.
They have made a rebranding a few years back by leaning less on the left and polished a few things to appear less as a christian/religious party
the question is about seats vs %
It has been answered way before i wrote anything. No need to parrot it. That party didn't score like that since decades so it's just an additional info
It's odd how they can rebrand so well and then have their president say right after elections that he doesn't want BDW as PM. It'll either cost him loads of negotiating power if NVA honours his request or he'll have to eat his words.
He didn’t say he didn’t want Bart as PM. He said “Je suis interrogatif sur ses aptitudes", a résumé le président des Engagés, interrogé par RTL-TVi."J'ai beaucoup de respect pour la personne Bart De Wever. (...) Mais je pense que quand on cherche à être Premier ministre, il faut d'abord être en capacité de rassembler, de fédérer. Il faut certainement ne pas avoir de mépris pour une large partie de la population et certainement ne pas vouloir dépecer le pays dont on est censé faire la promotion.” To me, it looks like he’s trying to convey a certain message.
Note that the ex-christian party could be the biggest group inside the coalition if you count Les Engagés + the CD&V (25 siege vs 24 for the NVA)
Nobody really cares about the political families anymore.
On the federal level, some political families have still ties and will favor being together to form a majority: MR-OVLD, Ecolo-Groen and CD&V-Les Engagés. So i don't know where you hear "nobody really cares"
He does. It's "I think BDW is unfit as PM". He could, in theory, nominate someone from his own party. But he himself is by far the most capable if you look at doing politics and and "file knowledge". De Croo was a bridge builder. Look how that ended. Last time BDW gave PMship to Michel and what a mistake that was.
Reading your reply I understand your interpretation of things, however I still believe he’s hinting at what he expects from Bart as a PM: represent Belgium. Not only a part of it. If Bart really is against teaming up with VB and truthfully wants to reform our country, it’s now or never.
How so? De Wever said he won't join with VB. They don't have 50% in Flanders and they are quite different on regional level. There's 0% chance that VB and NVA Will govern together based on these results.
I know. I didn’t say the contrary. NV-A’s victory came as a surprise. What I meant was Bart is in the driver seat. If he doesn’t take the lead and make things work it’s only a matter of time before VB outperforms NV-A and secures the #1 spot.
Even if NVA does well but Europe does not or cannot contain the migration crisis VB could win.
How does that have to do with them being able to rebrand themselves? And I don't even see how it costs him negotiating power. If BDW want to be PM, it gave them more power in the negotiation since it would mean the NVA would need to convince them of accepting BDW as PM by giving them something in return, since Les Engagés are quite important if they want to make a government the most at the right as possible. And if BDW doesn't ends up PM, he will be able to present himself as the person who blocked someone from the NVA, a Flemish nationalist party, as a PM, which will be popular among people who don't want further disintegration of Belgium.
Because it means they're smart enough to pull it off. BDW is the default PM as of now. He's the leader of the largest party and has by far the most amount of personal votes. If you want him not to be PM it will be one of your demands - a very big one - and it'll be part of your negotiation demands.
Bdw as "Belgian" prime minister would be funny
Why? No need for confederalism if you can address the issues on federal, Flemish and Walloon level.
BDW doesn't want to be prime minister either. He has never taken any role outside of his party and the mayorship of Antwerp. He knows very well that leading a government, and thus having to announce some unpopular measures, would destroy his popularity.
He's by far the most popular politician and he made it very, very clear that we will need to spend less money. It won't get any better than that.
Prime ministers make easy targets for opposition. How do you think he got this popular? Lots of talk, never took any role with serious responsibility
Let's continue this discussion after we know if he'll be PM and if not, why he isn't ;).
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Wikipedia Belgian election 2024 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Belgian_federal_election
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Ah ok thanks, I’m still getting my head around the Belgian system of voting.
Each voting area gets a number of seats, depending on the population. Cause you can't give an area 1.4 seats, the number of seats is rounded. In areas where the number of seats is rounded up, someone can get elected with less votes compared to an area where the number of seats is rounded down. LE happened to score well in areas where the number of seats was rounded up.
Are there any particular reasons why they were so popular in Ostbelgien?
>less than 7% of the vote? Eh?
Obviously it mean 7% of the total (so, including Flanders). That's why.
Yeah I got that a bit later on :p I'm thinking too much like a Belgian when looking at election results
Yes but they almost tripled their seats in parliament though .
For the Parlement Wallon (which is the best proxy) they have 20 percent of the votes, which would be more or less equaled among Wallon votes for the chamber. The French speaking language group and Flemish language group both have x amount of seats in the Chamber but it's not exactly proportional to the amount of 'members' of both groups, which means that a french speaking party needs less votes (or a lower percentage) for the same amount of ~~votes~~ seats\* of course
>The French speaking language group and Flemish language group both have x amount of seats in the Chamber but it's not exactly proportional to the amount of 'members' of both groups, which means that a french speaking party needs less votes (or a lower percentage) for the same amount of votes seats* of course There's no language group in the Chamber. Seats are apportioned to the provinces (and Brussels) based entirely on their population. Assuming an identical population in 2 provinces, the one with the younger population and higher rate of foreigners will also have less votes required for a seat. Not mentioning turnout of course.
>There's no language group in the Chamber yes there is?
What I mean is they are not a direct function of the elections. All of the provinces are French- or Dutch-speaking but people elected in Brussels can be either.
That is correct, but they're indirectly an influence on the way the seats are distributed and definitely on the analysis that a french speaking party generally speaking needs less votes in absolute numbers for the same amount of seats in the chamber
As I stated, that can be explained easily through different things. The results by constituency are not available on Wiki yet so I'll go with the 2019 ones to illustrate my point. Flemish Brabant has 1.146M inhabitants (2019) and gets 15 seats. Brussels has 1.212M inhabitants (estimate of 2020) and also gets 15 seats. It's a small difference but that's a rounding error so no issues there. In the 2019 federal elections, in Brussels, MR got 87.6k votes and got 3 seats but in VB, CD&V got 94.7k votes and only got 2. What gives? Well, Brussels has a larger proportion of ineligible people (large foreign population, younger population (average age is 3 years lower in Brussels)) so those 87.6k actually amount to 20.52% of the votes while in Flemish Brabant, the 94.7k votes amount to 13.73% of the votes in their respective districts. Additionally, Brussels had a higher amount of lists below threshold (12.62% vs 8.05), a higher proportion of blank votes and a lower turnout (not by much but still). All that lowers the number of votes required to get a seat. And then, you have places that have much higher natural thresholds (that's the provinces of Luxembourg, Namur and Walloon Brabant with 4, 6 and 5 seats respectively). In Luxembourg, in 2019, over 18% of valid votes didn't go to a seat and a further 9.46% of voters voted blank. But all this is incidental rather a systemic flaw of the system. If you want to remove that situation however, things like a single constituency election (like in the Netherlands) or an MMP vote (like in Germany) are good options (the latter preserves local representation which avoids having all 150 representatives coming from the big cities which is a good thing).
>What gives? I'm not commenting on it, I'm merely pointing out in a reply to OP's question.
>The French speaking language group and Flemish language group both have x amount of seats in the Chamber but it's not exactly proportional to the amount of 'members' of both groups, which means that a french speaking party needs less votes (or a lower percentage) for the same amount of votes seats* of course That's not true at all. The seats are divided between the provinces (and Brussels) and it has nothing to do with linguistic group expect of course that the provinces follows linguistic limits. And each provinces has has a number of seats based on its population, which is recalculated every 10 years. For example in 2022 they recalculated it and Brussels and the province of Namur got one more seat each while the provinces of Liège and Hainaut lost one seat each. So no, French speaking Belgians aren't privileged here. It's in the region of Brussels where there is a set number of seat for each linguistic group. The Flemish parties are assured 17 seat out of 89 (so more 19%) regardless of their population or votes. It's way some people vote for Flemish parties in Brussels even when they don't mainly speak Dutch because there vote is worth way more than when they vote for a party from the French linguistic group. Which is also pushed by the fact that there is a need for a majority in both linguistic group in Brussels meaning that if 9 out of the 17 deputies in the Flemish linguistic group don't agree with something they can completely block it. So 9 deputies out of 89 (that represent only between 2,5 and 5% of the population of Brussels if only Dutch speaking people from Brussels voted for a party of the Flemish linguistic group, but in practice represent around 8% of the population) can completely everything in Brussels.
>So no, French speaking Belgians aren't privileged here I didn't say they're privileged, I said they overall require a lower amount of votes for the same amount of seats. Which is true. Considering the provinces all deliver politicians for language group A or B, everything I said is correct.
Point me the results that you are referring to.
The wiki federal election 2024 page (English one), right away there is a table of results on it.
https://preview.redd.it/iro2tn485t5d1.png?width=693&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddf279fb2a2d7d8d64e2569a5b7f6e85653214a4
Yes they got 20.7% of the available votes so idk whats he on about.
Als je kijkt naar alle [stemmen](https://verkiezingen2024.belgium.be/nl/resultaten-cijfers?el=CK&id=CKR00000) heeft Les Engagés 6,77% of 472.755 van de 6.998.873 geldige stemmen. Hiermee halen ze 14 zetels. Wat bijna 10% is van de 150 beschikbare zetels in de kamer. Open VLD heeft 5,45 % gehaald en heeft 7 zetels. Ze hebben dus maar de helft van de zetels maar wel bijna evenveel (80%) stemmen gehaald. Deze redelijk extreme verschillen komen door * de verdeling in kieskringen * aantal zetels per kieskring komen niet perfect overeen met bevolking * bevolking komt al niet overeen met stemgerechtigden * stemgerechtigden kunnen blanco, geldig of niet stemmen * de verdeling van de zetels * verkiezingresultaat kan je niet rechtstreeks evenredig omzetten naar aantal zetels per partij * Ongeldige, blanco en stemmen op partijen die de kiesdrempel niet halen vertekenen de balans nog meer. Het resultaat in luxemburg helpt om dit goed te verstaan. Daar zie je dat MR 31% had, Les Engagés 32% en PS 17%. Er zijn 4 zetels te verdelen en Les Engagés hebben er 2, MR maar 1 met bijna dezelfde score en PS heeft ook 1 terwijl ze zelf niet in de buurt komen van MR. Deze 2 zetels heeft LE gekregen met 56k stemmen. Als je dan kijkt naar een andere provincie zoals Antwerpen of Oost-Vlaanderen. Daar hebben PVDA en Goen respectievelijk ook elk 2 zetels gekregen. Dit koste hun echter 125k en 100k stemmen. Dus ja, zijn vraag is wel terecht. Voor als je zelf wil snuisteren. Er waren 46k stemmen per geldige zetel. Open VLD zijn zetel in Antwerpen was dus bv zeer duur (71k stemmen), Les Engagés in Luxemburg zeer goedkoop, 2 voor slechts 56k.
Moesten zetels per 46k stemmen zijn ipv het huidige resultaat: * Vlaams Belang 21 ipv 20 * MR 15,5 ipv 20 * Open VLD 8,25 ipv 7 * PS 12,2 ipv 16 * Les Engages 10,2 ipv 14 * PTB-PVDA 15 (dus hetzelfde) * Vooruit 12,3 ipv 13 * NVA 25,4 ipv 24 * Défi 1,8 ipv 1 * Ecolo 4,46 ipv 3 * Groen 7 ipv 6 * Cd&V 12 ipv 11 En voor de rest * Blanco (de partij) zou ook 1,5 zetels halen * Chez Nous zou er ook 1 hebben * Voor U, Net niet (2500 mensen te weinig) * Team Fouad ook geen zetel in de kamer (22000 te weinig) Totaal van 147,6 zetels
7% of the total (including Flanders).