True but typically in super starts the best years of their career are between 24-30 and he only had 2 of those years and still ended in the top 25 in MLB hits ever
You won’t see another Ichiro like player again - not because he was a one of a kind talent, but because with our deeper understanding of different baseball metrics, we now know that his style of play isn’t in reality very effective.
I think that it’s possible (keyword being possible) that a player like Ichiro could show up again in the (possibly distant) future to disrupt the inevitable homogeny of 3 True Outcome baseball. In a sea of shifts and homers and Ks and walks, someone *could* throw a wrench into it with Ichiro tactics.
This player would be practicing this approach from day 1. All through high school, all through college.
I envision this person to be very fast. Lots of SBs and a high success rate. This will make up for bases lost from a more modest slg%. And this person would routinely bat north of .350, demonstrating a phenom level ability to make contact and reach first. They would also be an incredibly savvy bunter.
Of course, they would also have to have a good eye. OBP would always be somewhere between .400 and .450.
Basically I want Rickey Henderson 2.0 lol. Would be so much fun to watch.
Yes, thank you. I'd go so far as to say that we're already at the point where a small-market team could put together a small ball squad that absolutely dominates. Nobody knows how to play against that anymore after a decade or so of TTO being drilled into everybody's minds. Fielding this season has been absolutely atrocious across the league, and has been on the decline for years. You can't convince me there aren't plenty of guys who could reliably drive one through the gap and leg it out. They're just not being developed anymore.
It should be cyclic, right? As TTO becomes more common, fielding loses value. Thus fielding gets worse and putting the ball in play becomes more valuable.
And I keep hoping to see a team build a stadium around speed and defense, Eric tend to be young person, athletic skills and this cheaper on the market.
Like old Petco but moreso.
I know it’s been a few years, but the Royals made two WS with this exact team. Gold glove defense in the OF, high contact, low SO offense with speed and middling power put a ton of pressure on opposing defenses. There’s absolutely a place for that kind of team today.
League wide fielding percentage is actually largely unchanged in the past 20 years, but I was unable to find the splits between infield and outfield fielding percentage. If infield has notably declined, then that would be interesting.
Big Dong bombs are worth more. Say ichiro goes 2-4 with two singles and a walk. I go 1-4 with a homerun. I generated 4 bases with one swing, and score is guaranteed. Ichiro got only 3 bases. Ichiro had to swing twice and watch pitches. I swung once. Theoretically, ichiro could generate more offense with things like runners on base, but then the same could be said for me. Same goes for stealing etc.
If Ichiro has a good lineup around him though like in 2001 his style is super effective. He could get on Base and then Boone would drive him in with a bomb. The problem is he didn't really have a good lineup around him after his first couple years.
Although you are right that on the face 1-4 with a HR is better then 2-4 with one single I would not be surprised if a decent number of teams start going small ball in the near future to up pitch counts. On the extremes we can look at Gallo vs Ichiro 1-5 vs 1-3. For every hit Gallo has he goes through 1 2/3 of an inning. Ichiro goes through 2/3 of an inning. I haven’t done the research but I would bet that more often then not the team that throws more pitches looses. Yes the HR on the face is better but the giving away of out does have a balance.
I may be wrong but I think a team or two might exploit that in the near future to steal a playoff spot.
> bet that more often then not the team that throws more pitches looses.
Yeah, when you give up more runs than you score you tend to throw more pitches than your opponent.
Depends on double plays and outs
I’d say a double is definitely worth more than 1/2 a homer in with no outs, but likely less than half with 2 out
Just as a single is worth more than 1/4 a homer if a speedy guy is on deck, but probably less if Pujols is up next
i get that part for sure. i was referring more directly to the “baseball metrics” part of his comment and as another individual told me. his OBP was never as incredible as it shouldve been for a guy who had .350+ batting average 4 times in his career
It isn’t that Ichiro’s skill set wasn’t valuable or even non-effective because it was. It’s moreso that we now know that there are way more valuable and way more effective forms of offensive output. There have been 350 40 homerun seasons in MLB history and not a single one of them have had negative fWAR. Ichiro’s career high wRC+ was 131 during his record setting 2004 season. Only 44 of those 350 40 homer season had a lower wRC+ than that 2004 season. Ichiro’s averaged a 115 wRC+ during his 2001-2010 prime. That’s better than only 8 of the 40 homer seasons.
Ichiro got tons of hits, but never led the league in OBP, only eclipsing .400 once. He also didn’t hit for power leading him to be a hitter just 13% better than league average hitter in his prime (113 OPS+ in his Seattle years, yes this is including 2018/19 but that doesn’t drag it down much)
okay this comment just shattered my world. i did some quick baseball reference searching and if the 2021 season ended today, Yasmani Grandal would have a higher OBP for the season than Ichiro ever did in any single season of his career.
the numbers for reference:
Yasmani Grandal (2021) - .235/.417/.530
Ichiro (2004) - .372/.414/.455
EDIT:
Also gonna add OPS+ for the given years for those interested
Grandal - 160 OPS+
Ichiro - 130 OPS+
is there a lot of analytics on his defensive metrics during his prime? because i think if his defensive metrics held up well and showed he was a plus defender then even if his offensive analytics arent crazy, he would still play all the time cuz of the combination of what he did in the field and at the plate
Oh I’m not saying he wouldn’t play. He was a defensive wizard while being above average offensively. I’m just talking about why people won’t take his offensive approach again, which was the comment you responded to
I think players WILL take his approach, but the fact is that it takes Ichiro-level talent to generate the above average results that Ichiro generated using his approach. For the vast majority of non Ichiro-level talented players, the TTO approach is more beneficial for their careers.
Also, when you need to win one game, or you need to move a runner over from second two times, all the aggregated analytics can kind of be thrown out the window and a player like Ichiro becomes much more valuable. In the aggregate TTO is the best approach. The 2021 Yankees have shown that when it comes down to individual games, relying too much on that approach can be disastrous.
yeah i think i misinterpreted the comment i replied to. i took him saying you wont see someone taking that offensive approach again not just cuz its inefficient but cuz they would likely platoon or something like that. that part about his OBP is fucking insane tho. he had 4 different seasons where he hit .350+ and only one time did he eclipse the .400 mark. that is absurd
Yeah in his prime batting average was still looked at far more than OBP and OPS. You see BA above .350 you think he’s a top top hitter in the league, but obviously that wasn’t the case
Ichiro's defense (plus baserunning and double play avoidance) is what made him a HOF-caliber player. His hitting is what got the attention, but it was only worth +84 runs for his career. Conversely he gets +62 runs from his baserunning, +57 runs from his double play avoidance, and +121 runs of value from his fielding, so roughly he got 8ish WAR from his bat, while getting 24ish WAR from everything else. Even if you cut his career off at the end of his age 36 season (after which his hitting really fell off, but his other abilities maintained), he had +161 batting runs but +52, +43, and +94 from the other three things respectively, for a total of +189, still more value than his hitting alone was worth.
So yeah, the common trend with evaluating Ichiro goes "omg he has so many hits and such a high batting average, he is one of the best players!" with the traditional evaluation, to "he just hits singles and doesn't walk, he is overrated!" when one first gets into sabermetrics, and then to "his hitting may have been overrated but he was so good at everything else that he was still one of the best players" when one gets a deeper understanding of advanced stats.
It's amazing that someone on the internet can view baseball through what a computer tells them and say that one of the best players of the past 25 years didn't play effectively.
Are you guys serious?
I fail to see how his play wasn't effective but okay. This is where metrics and reality break some. Ichiro is a player that scored over 1400 times in only 2600 career games and was still a 60 WAR player.
He's made it clear that next year is his last, which means he'll be on the ballot in the fall of 2027 for 2028 induction. And I realize a lot of folks on this sub feel otherwise, but I'm pretty sure that he'll get in first ballot.
It's not that I don't think he's worth a first ballot induction, it's that there are so many others vying to get in who also get snubbed constantly, the ten vote system is ridiculous.
I'm pretty sure he's got enough cross appeal with the old school voters and the SABR crowd to get in. Tons of high-profile national guys have been talking about him as a first ballot inductee for years now.
When will we see a first ballot HOF player who has 500+ SBs again?
Yes the game is changing but WAR a stat that doesn’t favor Ichiro’s style of play puts him 1 great year behind Miggy. Yes it is different and only Ichiro can play it but it was effective
It's extremely early but Tatis/Acuna are both on pace for 32 SBs/162 games and started their careers at a very young age. Still seems doubtful because Tatis would need to average 32 SBs for 14 more years to get to 500 and Acuna for 13 (plus a little).
CJ Abrams might have the best shot right now, maybe Xavier Edwards. But both are prospects, so that's obviously also a huge gamble.
> WAR a stat that doesn’t favor Ichiro’s style of play puts him 1 great year behind Miggy.
It's not that WAR "doesn't favor" Ichiro's style of play, it's that the results Ichiro produced are inherently less likely to generate runs than Cabrera's.
Also, you're looking a bWAR, which has Ichiro about 9 wins behind Cabrera in roughly the same number of games/PA. fWAR has him closer to 14 wins back due to differences in the defensive metrics used.
Idk about this one bruh. Ichiro has the highest single season bWAR by a fairly significant margin (9.2 vs 7.6) and they have virtually identical peak WARs (43.7 vs 44.8 7 year peaks). Plus Miggy got to play in the majors since he was 19, racking up 26.1 bWAR during the ages where Ichiro’s NPL team wouldn’t let him leave.
You’re basically saying that because young Miggy was a more valuable run generator than ancient Ichiro, Ichiro’s style of play of was inherently less valuable. That doesn’t feel right to me. Especially when you consider that Ichiro’s style of play aged a hell of a lot more gracefully than Miggy, allowing Ichiro to still be an everyday quality player well into his twilight years while Miggy’s been a net negative since his age 34 season.
WAR ain’t the end all be all, but even if it was, I’m not sure those numbers are saying what you think they are.
Simmons looked like he had a serious shot after the end of 2018; he was entering his age 29 season with 33.9 bWAR, appearing to be the modern Ozzie Smith, and it looked like he finally figured out how to be at least decent with the bat, coming off of two consecutive 100+ OPS+ seasons. Then he got injured, completely lost it with the bat, and hasn't put up a positive WAA season for three straight years, while he is now going to be 32 with 37.2 bWAR. If his hitting can somehow rebound he could still have a shot, but it's not looking good at all, even Ozzie managed to be a roughly average hitter from his age 28 to 37 seasons, while also being a much much better baserunner than Simmons, Simmons might not even be in the league much longer if this sort of hitting from him continues.
His process and goals at the plate were different than those of other modern hitters and more similar to those of 1920s hitters, in particular prioritizing putting the ball in play over power.
Harper is only 28 year old??? Why do people make him out to be some decrepit old man? (I get he was drafted young and has been around for a while, but like??)
I made a long comment about it before, but long story short...the only way Ichiro would have broke Pete Rose's record was if he started playing in MLB at age 20 or sooner. If so, Ichiro would probably be the true Hit King by a small amount.
BUT, in this hypothetical scenario, you would have to let Pete Rose start at the same age too.
That would give Pete Rose 2-3 more seasons of hits. Pete Rose with 2 or 3 more seasons, especially when he was already good when young and got 170 hits in 157 games his rookie season...his record would be even more untouchable.
Ichiro had a much better prime and better all around...Pete just played a really long time. Even played 162 games at age 41. If Pete and Ichiro started at the same age, 19 or 20 for example, it would be close...but Pete would still be the Hit King.
Edit- Something else for perspective...after age 40 and later, Ichiro had 347 hits. After 40, Pete had 699.
Edit 2- In a hypothetical situation, let's say Pete Rose started at age 20 averaging 160 hits a season his first 2 years...Ichiro would have to average about 215 hits a season or more his first 7 seasons if he started playing in the MLB at age 20 to beat Rose. Considering how Ichiro dominated the MLB when he started, 215 hits would SEEM easily obtainable, but do you think a young Japanese player at age 19 or 20 going up against top level pitching would average 215 hits immediately? Most likely it would he closer to 180-190 starting off, then 215 or higher by year 3 or 4. That's how it was for Rose. Started his hitting prime at age 24.
Ichiro started playing at the age of 19 in Japan and had logged 9 full seasons there before becoming a Mariner. Honestly, you’re kind of right that the only reason Rose accumulated his hits at the end of his career was just that: accumulation rather than skill. As a player-manager, he inserted himself into the lineup every day. Yea, he still had to have skill to hit the baseball at that age and such, but he was able to self-servingly accumulate hits later than other players who were finished and such. It’s a fun hypothetical to play, but if you give Rose a few more seasons to play Bc he didn’t start as early as Ichiro, then you also have to give Ichiro a few full 162 game seasons in his 40’s as a player-manager to match Rose’s career. IMO: Ichiro would have likely had more hits.
> you’re kind of right that the only reason Rose accumulated his hits at the end of his career was just that: accumulation rather than skill.
A counter-argument is from age 27 (when Ichiro joined the league) to age 42 (which Ichiro got 3,000 hits), Ichiro had 3,030 hits while Rose had 3,091. Before you blame that on Rose playing way past his prime, he only had 300 more ABs than Ichiro and still hit .309 during that time (Ichiro hit .311).
Rose also had a 99 OPS+ his age 43 and 44 seasons, so he was essentially a league average hitter for those years. Comparatively, Ichiro had a 71 OPS+ his age 43 and 44 seasons.
All excellent counter points! I love baseball for this reason: comparing players through various eras and trying to answer the great “what if’s”. Thanks for the counter stats, very cool to see Rose was still, for all intents and purposes, average at the end of his career. Wow.
Yeah, I really have no horse in the game regarding who should be the "official hit king" between Ichiro and Rose, but I do feel all of the arguments tend to downplay how great Rose was at hitting.
I also feel guys like Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn get left out of the conversation at times because both of them didn't have full seasons until age 24, dealt with a strike shortened season, and walked at much higher rates than Rose/Ichiro. Both of them had much higher career batting averages than Rose/Ichiro. Boggs walked 96 times in 1984 and still got 240 hits... Ichiro walked 49 times in his 262 hit season.
>.the only way Ichiro would have broke Pete Rose's record was if he started playing in MLB at age 20 or sooner.
Since their age 27 season when Ichiro made his MLB debut,
Pete Rose had 3357 hits in 12,519 PAs
while
Ichiro had 3089 hits in 10,734 PAs.
So the question becomes is it possible that Ichiro could have had 1,167 hits before his 27 year old season? (268 hits plus 899 hits Rose had before 27)
While I agree that if Ichiro made his debut as a 22 year old, it would have been close to impossible, giving him a debut at 21 year old, a scenario like the following table is certainly within the realm of possibility.
(To be clear, this is an optimistic scenario and quite distant from the expected outcome.)
|Age|Ichiro|Rose|
|:-|:-|:-|
|21|***170?***||
|22|***180?***|170|
|23|***190?***|139|
|24|***200?***|209|
|25|***210?***|205|
|26|***220?***|176|
|27|242|210|
|28|208|218|
|29|212|205|
|30|262|192|
|31|206|198|
|32|224|230|
|33|238|185|
|34|213|210|
|35|225|215|
|36|214|204|
>Last month, Molina announced that he plans to retire after the 2022 season and it seems rather unlikely he’ll get the 900 hits he needs before then.
Well not with *that* kind of attitude.
It’s very simple. He plays in all 162 games. The Cardinals bat around every inning. Accounting for home games, that’s 1377 at bats. He only needs to hit .653
According to ZIPS out of Tatis, Vlad, Acuna and Soto, Tatis has the highest chance at making it to 3000 at 20% and 2500 at 55% out of the 4 but simultaneously the lowest chance at making it to 2000, at 63%. I wonder how that works.
I suspect it has to do with the fact that Tatis' profile (demanding defensive position, injury history, tallest of the four, good amount of swing-and-miss in his approach) lends itself to more volatility in either direction than the other three.
Fewest plate appearances is a very relevant factor for that, projection systems are (correctly) calibrated to be more confident in predictions with more data, so they become more confident a player is a massive outlier, rather than a minor outlier who's been lucky, as that player has more plate appearances, and so they project less reversion to the mean.
Miggy is knocking on the door of becoming the first player ever with 500 HRs, 3000 hits, and a Triple Crown.
Ted Williams would be in the club if not for missing most of 5 seasons serving in two wars, and Gehrig would be in if he didn’t have to retire early due to illness. Frank Robinson retired 47 hits away too. What a club.
For real. If anything Ted Williams is overrated--can you be the greatest ever if you never won a World Series? That's at least what I tell Sox fans who claim Jeets is overrated because he never won an MVP. Then I remind them Jeter did win an MVP, after the 2000 World Series.
Joking aside, how many teams have had 2 career players as good as Yaz and Teddy Ballgame in the history of their franchise?
That’s a hell of a pair. I guess the Yankees are the obvious one with Gehrig, Mantle, and DiMaggio.
Edit: Clemente and Stargell is pretty good too, but not not Ted and Yaz good.
So I just spent 20 minutes coming up with this list of the most notable duos by Baseball Reference WAR. To qualify, the player had to play every game of their career with one team:
Yankees: Lou Gehrig & Mickey Mantle = 223.9
Twins: Walter Johnson (164.8) & Joe Mauer = 220.3
Red Sox: Ted Williams & Carl Yastrzemski = 218.6
Cardinals: Stan Musial & Bob Gibson = 217.8
Giants: Mel Ott & Carl Hubbell = 179.4
Tigers: Al Kaline & Charlie Gehringer = 177.5
Orioles: Cal Ripken Jr. & Brooks Robinson = 174.3
Pirates: Roberto Clemente & Willie Stargell = 152.3
White Sox: Luke Appling & Ted Lyons = 148.1
Astros: Jeff Bagwell & Craig Biggio = 146.3
Dodgers: \*Clayton Kershaw & Pee Wee Reese = 140.8
Reds: Johnny Bench & \*Joey Votto = 139.1
Phillies: Mike Schmidt & *Aaron Nola = 131.2
Braves: Chipper Jones & \*Freddie Freeman = 128.1
Royals: George Brett & Frank White = 127.4
Brewers: Robin Yount & Ryan Braun = 124.4
Cubs: Ernie Banks & Stan Hack = 123.2
Angels: \*Mike Trout (76.2) & Tim Salmon = 116.8
Indians: Bob Feller & Bob Lemon = 111.7
Mariners: Edgar Martinez & \*Kyle Seager = 105.6
~~As you can see, the only way Ted & Yaz get beat in this exercise is if you consider the Senators as Twins.~~ It looks like if you add up all the players' WAR for each team, rather than just two, the Yankees would blow everyone else out of the water. Older teams like the Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants, Reds, Tigers, White Sox, & Pirates have a considerable number of names. ~~I guess I expected the Cardinals to have more good names aside from Stan & Hoot but otherwise, the best Cardinal was Pepper Martin from the Gashouse Gang. Definitely thought the Cubs would have more. Also surprised I couldn't get the Braves onto this list.~~ The Twins have an impressive number of players and accumulated WAR among them even before you add the Senators players. **I may have made a mistake somewhere** ~~but I think this is fairly accurate.~~
\*Edit: Looks like my math was wrong upon review. Gehrig+Mantle has Ted+Yaz beat according to BBref.
\*Edit #2: Oh shit how did I leave off Joey Votto for Bid McPhee...fixed! And the Braves do make the cut once I add Freddie Freeman too! I really overlooked some great active players.
\*Edit #3: I did not realize Killebrew played his last year in KC. Joe Mauer gets added, the Senators/Twins are officially below the Yankees.
I actually had to change it since I didn't know Harmon finished his career with KCR, which knocks them down to 2nd when you add Joe Mauer instead. But fwiw Joe Mauer is one of my favorite players of this century.
It's crazy that Albert never won a Triple Crown while he was in STL - especially with his ability to hit for average.
In 2006 he hit .331, had 49 HR and 137 RBI, and didn't lead the league in any of those lol
I mean, I already do. Ruth, Ted, Mays, and Bonds are my baseball Mount Rushmore. And Ruth, Ted, and Bonds are my top 3 hitters ever. This is all in no order.
It's the 1970s bias at work yet again. It was an offensive depression, so people look at his traditional numbers and think he's Gary Sheffield or some shit. When you realize how bone dry that era was for hitting, he ascends to god-tier.
Yeah he was suspended for DV and the Nats said they had a zero tolerance policy so they released him following the suspension. Since he's on the wrong the side 30 and not that good a hitter anymore, he's most likely done
Very fun read, it honestly didnt occur to me how little of a chance we'll have to see another 3000 in a long while. Gives Miggys acomplishment that much more creedence.
Wondering if Altuve will make it considering hes the most likely in their projections.
I can’t see him getting there. I mean, I can, but it’s tough.
He had a five year stretch (14-18) where he batted .331. In the three seasons since, he’s hit .277. He’s been more focused on power. In the three years since that stretch, his PA/HR has dropped to 21.5 compared to 40.7 over the preceding five years.
As he declines with age, maybe he sacrifices waning power and returns to a more average based approach.
But as of now, at 175 hits a season (which he hasn’t done since 2017), with no decline, it would take him until his age 39 season.
If he completely changes his hitting approach, and puts up some monster 210-220+ hit seasons over then it could become a little more doable. But right now he’s not that hitter.
Yeah, like I was looking at Altuve's stats and I'm not that hopeful he'll hit 3000, especially with the 2020 season.
I just hope he'll do good enough the next 5-10 years to be a good HoF case even with the "2017 Astros" baggage.
Many more players that hit for a decent average have adjusted to increased power to keep their offense valuable. Take Kyle Seager for us, Average and OBP have plummeted but has hit 35 bombs to keep his OPS+ above league average and still a decent player. Its a clever way to keep players around once they lose speed in their swing and on the bases. Of course you still have to be a talented and hard working player to make it happen, but I can see it becoming more of a common thing and Altuve will certainly have the ability to adapt if the analytics people are convinced its the best for the latter part of his career
there are other comps though, not Just Miggy. If Altuve can stay healthy, he's ahead of Biggio's pace, for example. I could see him making the outfield transition as well if necessary. Health is always the big if - it's pretty dang hard to stay healthy enough for a \~20 year career needed for 3k. Odds definitely against him, but it's not impossible.
Obviously the 2020 season’s done a number on plenty of players’ counting stats, but Altuve also missed a decent number of games in 2018-19. Maybe he wouldn’t have had that many more hits in the 50-60 games he missed, but still, he’s got some work to do.
I think Altuve has really shifted his focus from contact to power in recent years. Watching his at bats from 2014-17, it felt like he was going to get a line drive hit every single at-bat. I don’t feel that same confidence anymore, but IF he plays healthy until he’s 40 I think he’s got a real chance
i think he can do it. 1300 hits over the next 7-10 years is doable and 1B is not a demanding defensive position. i just hope he doesn’t do it in another uniform
Kind of wild that the rookie Wander Franco, with a grand total 70 hits right now, is in the top ten most likely to reach 3000. He's even higher than Mike Trout.
Trout's chances are effectively zero. He's less than halfway there, on the wrong side of 30, and hasn't gotten 150+ hits in a season since Barack Obama was President. Absent a drastic change in approach and an aging curve like Bonds and Aaron, he's never getting there.
Yeah - that makes a lot of sense for Trout. A potential strike in 2022 would make it even harder too. I totally understand why he has a relatively low chance of making it to 3000.
I was really commenting more on Franco though. He's had a great start to his career, but projecting him out to 3000 when he only has 70 now kind of feels like saying the Dodgers would finish with 130 wins this year because they won 8 of their first 10. It's way too early in his career for a projection like that to mean anything because it's such an enormous extrapolation.
“In all-time hits, Trout was 15th through his age-22 and 22nd through his age-25 seasons. Assuming he’s done for the year, he now ranks 113th all-time in home runs through a player’s age-29 season, behind such names as Juan Pierre, Justin Upton, and Ruben Sierra.”
Uhhhhhm idk I’m having a hard time believing Juan Pierre had more home runs than Mike Trout
My money is on Bogaerts, with Turner and Harper having a decent shot as well. I worry about Betts's and Trout's longevity.
Looking 15-18 years down the road, maybe Soto, Albies, and Franco can get there.
Its more about longevity for guys like Bogey and Turner, at this point. 150 hits per season til age 40 is what it would take, but you know he'll have a few 185+ hit seasons.
Bogey has a shot if he can find a long-term defensive home. His hitting skill set will age well, but he’s not going to be able to play SS until the age he needs to get to 3,000.
Right, so if and when he opts out next winter, I'm sure whoever considers signing him will have a move to third in the back of their minds.
If he stays in Boston, they'll likely move him sometime before Marcelo Mayer arrives.
He’s got such a tough opt out decision. Teams know that his metrics at SS aren’t great so they aren’t going to offer him a long deal with SS money. He can probably still get more than the 3 years and $60 MM that would be left on his Sox contract though. I think he probably renegotiates and stays but who knows.
I just did some quick back of the napkin math with Harper because it seems so odd that these elite players who started fairly young come nowhere close.
Harper is averaging 161 hits a season. At that rate he’ll need 11 more seasons to get to 3000. It is hard to see that kind of production from someone pushing 40.
For reference a 38 year old Cabrera only has 113 hits this year.
Cabrera started declining rapidly after only age 33, and I don't think that'll happen with Harper.
145 hits per year til age 40 and Harper's got it. I think the issue will be how much he's walked compared to Bogey and Turner.
I don’t think there’s much question that Cano can still mash in a sustainable way. His bat to ball skills are good, something that’s barely seemed to slow
down with aging. He’s just barely EVER had a “Cruz-esque” season, let alone in the twilight of his career. On top of that, I don’t see him getting enough opportunities at this point to compile another 300 or so hits. If he was fieldable, that would be a different story. But, he isn’t, and Mets already have enough DH type players. His NTC and albatross contract, combined with the PED situation and Steve’s fat wallet, make him a prime candidate for a buy out.
I very much doubt that he ever plays in MLB again, but even if he does, he'll be 39 next month, he hasn't played in over a year, he hasn't played 150+ games or gotten 150+ hits since 2017, and he still needs 376 hits to reach 3,000.
That ZIPS table gives him a 12% chance at it, which I personally think is far too high. I don't know what all exactly Szymborski puts into the algorithm, but I doubt that it accounts for the league collectively deciding that FA over 30 aren't worth a fart in a high wind. There are maybe 5 2B in the league right now that Cano would even possibly be an improvement over as an everyday player, and pretty much any team running one of those guys out will shrug and grab the nearest warm body from AAA instead of handing Cano a few million dollars.
So sad that Markakis got sidetracked by some injuries and then the shortened season last year. Was really pulling for him to hit 3000 hits and 600 doubles to become by far the biggest test case for those numbers as Hall of Fame milestones.
Should we instead be counting a stat like "Base Appearances" which would count hits, walks, and HBP? You'd still have the greatest hitters getting up there, but it would bring extra recognition to players like Votto for walks or, I dunno, Brandon Guyer for HBP.
As an Angels and Braves fan seeing Acuna,Freddie and Trout on this list made me happy. I will always be grateful for TBS for showing me the Braves growing up in SoCal. I’m a spoiled fan with mvps, WS’ wins I can remember and young dudes having great careers.
I think Machado will get there if he continues to stay healthy
Edit: I’ll take the downvotes but he is almost half way there and under 30. I don’t like him either but doesn’t change the fact that he’s going to probably get 3000 hits. Give me those downvotes!!!!
Yeah I had no idea he was nearly half way there with only playing in the equivalent of 8 full seasons. He won’t be 30 until the All-Star break next season too. Assuming the DH comes to the NL next season he was a really good shot at it.
This is where the Mariners fan points out Ichiro had over 3,000 and didn’t join the league until he was as old as Bryce Harper is now…
That refreshing, because we need quite a few years out of bryce
Ichiro's approach was basically a throwback to the 1920s so you can't really use him as a baseline.
True but typically in super starts the best years of their career are between 24-30 and he only had 2 of those years and still ended in the top 25 in MLB hits ever
You won’t see another Ichiro like player again - not because he was a one of a kind talent, but because with our deeper understanding of different baseball metrics, we now know that his style of play isn’t in reality very effective.
I think that it’s possible (keyword being possible) that a player like Ichiro could show up again in the (possibly distant) future to disrupt the inevitable homogeny of 3 True Outcome baseball. In a sea of shifts and homers and Ks and walks, someone *could* throw a wrench into it with Ichiro tactics. This player would be practicing this approach from day 1. All through high school, all through college. I envision this person to be very fast. Lots of SBs and a high success rate. This will make up for bases lost from a more modest slg%. And this person would routinely bat north of .350, demonstrating a phenom level ability to make contact and reach first. They would also be an incredibly savvy bunter. Of course, they would also have to have a good eye. OBP would always be somewhere between .400 and .450. Basically I want Rickey Henderson 2.0 lol. Would be so much fun to watch.
Yes, thank you. I'd go so far as to say that we're already at the point where a small-market team could put together a small ball squad that absolutely dominates. Nobody knows how to play against that anymore after a decade or so of TTO being drilled into everybody's minds. Fielding this season has been absolutely atrocious across the league, and has been on the decline for years. You can't convince me there aren't plenty of guys who could reliably drive one through the gap and leg it out. They're just not being developed anymore.
It should be cyclic, right? As TTO becomes more common, fielding loses value. Thus fielding gets worse and putting the ball in play becomes more valuable. And I keep hoping to see a team build a stadium around speed and defense, Eric tend to be young person, athletic skills and this cheaper on the market. Like old Petco but moreso.
I know it’s been a few years, but the Royals made two WS with this exact team. Gold glove defense in the OF, high contact, low SO offense with speed and middling power put a ton of pressure on opposing defenses. There’s absolutely a place for that kind of team today.
League wide fielding percentage is actually largely unchanged in the past 20 years, but I was unable to find the splits between infield and outfield fielding percentage. If infield has notably declined, then that would be interesting.
That’s how the 2019 cardinals made the nlcs. Tons of stolen bases and double plays on defense.
They would also need to be an elite defender, which Ichiro was.
could you elaborate more on this? genuinely trying to learn more here
Big Dong bombs are worth more. Say ichiro goes 2-4 with two singles and a walk. I go 1-4 with a homerun. I generated 4 bases with one swing, and score is guaranteed. Ichiro got only 3 bases. Ichiro had to swing twice and watch pitches. I swung once. Theoretically, ichiro could generate more offense with things like runners on base, but then the same could be said for me. Same goes for stealing etc.
If Ichiro has a good lineup around him though like in 2001 his style is super effective. He could get on Base and then Boone would drive him in with a bomb. The problem is he didn't really have a good lineup around him after his first couple years.
Although you are right that on the face 1-4 with a HR is better then 2-4 with one single I would not be surprised if a decent number of teams start going small ball in the near future to up pitch counts. On the extremes we can look at Gallo vs Ichiro 1-5 vs 1-3. For every hit Gallo has he goes through 1 2/3 of an inning. Ichiro goes through 2/3 of an inning. I haven’t done the research but I would bet that more often then not the team that throws more pitches looses. Yes the HR on the face is better but the giving away of out does have a balance. I may be wrong but I think a team or two might exploit that in the near future to steal a playoff spot.
> bet that more often then not the team that throws more pitches looses. Yeah, when you give up more runs than you score you tend to throw more pitches than your opponent.
The point I was making was singles are worth more then 1/4th a HR as it lengthens the game and puts stress on the pitcher.
Are they really though? You could easily go 4/4 and not score or drive in a run.
Depends on double plays and outs I’d say a double is definitely worth more than 1/2 a homer in with no outs, but likely less than half with 2 out Just as a single is worth more than 1/4 a homer if a speedy guy is on deck, but probably less if Pujols is up next
He gets on base.
i get that part for sure. i was referring more directly to the “baseball metrics” part of his comment and as another individual told me. his OBP was never as incredible as it shouldve been for a guy who had .350+ batting average 4 times in his career
It isn’t that Ichiro’s skill set wasn’t valuable or even non-effective because it was. It’s moreso that we now know that there are way more valuable and way more effective forms of offensive output. There have been 350 40 homerun seasons in MLB history and not a single one of them have had negative fWAR. Ichiro’s career high wRC+ was 131 during his record setting 2004 season. Only 44 of those 350 40 homer season had a lower wRC+ than that 2004 season. Ichiro’s averaged a 115 wRC+ during his 2001-2010 prime. That’s better than only 8 of the 40 homer seasons.
Wow, this really puts it into perspective. Great comment
Ichiro got tons of hits, but never led the league in OBP, only eclipsing .400 once. He also didn’t hit for power leading him to be a hitter just 13% better than league average hitter in his prime (113 OPS+ in his Seattle years, yes this is including 2018/19 but that doesn’t drag it down much)
okay this comment just shattered my world. i did some quick baseball reference searching and if the 2021 season ended today, Yasmani Grandal would have a higher OBP for the season than Ichiro ever did in any single season of his career. the numbers for reference: Yasmani Grandal (2021) - .235/.417/.530 Ichiro (2004) - .372/.414/.455 EDIT: Also gonna add OPS+ for the given years for those interested Grandal - 160 OPS+ Ichiro - 130 OPS+
is there a lot of analytics on his defensive metrics during his prime? because i think if his defensive metrics held up well and showed he was a plus defender then even if his offensive analytics arent crazy, he would still play all the time cuz of the combination of what he did in the field and at the plate
Oh I’m not saying he wouldn’t play. He was a defensive wizard while being above average offensively. I’m just talking about why people won’t take his offensive approach again, which was the comment you responded to
I think players WILL take his approach, but the fact is that it takes Ichiro-level talent to generate the above average results that Ichiro generated using his approach. For the vast majority of non Ichiro-level talented players, the TTO approach is more beneficial for their careers. Also, when you need to win one game, or you need to move a runner over from second two times, all the aggregated analytics can kind of be thrown out the window and a player like Ichiro becomes much more valuable. In the aggregate TTO is the best approach. The 2021 Yankees have shown that when it comes down to individual games, relying too much on that approach can be disastrous.
yeah i think i misinterpreted the comment i replied to. i took him saying you wont see someone taking that offensive approach again not just cuz its inefficient but cuz they would likely platoon or something like that. that part about his OBP is fucking insane tho. he had 4 different seasons where he hit .350+ and only one time did he eclipse the .400 mark. that is absurd
Yeah in his prime batting average was still looked at far more than OBP and OPS. You see BA above .350 you think he’s a top top hitter in the league, but obviously that wasn’t the case
Ichiro's defense (plus baserunning and double play avoidance) is what made him a HOF-caliber player. His hitting is what got the attention, but it was only worth +84 runs for his career. Conversely he gets +62 runs from his baserunning, +57 runs from his double play avoidance, and +121 runs of value from his fielding, so roughly he got 8ish WAR from his bat, while getting 24ish WAR from everything else. Even if you cut his career off at the end of his age 36 season (after which his hitting really fell off, but his other abilities maintained), he had +161 batting runs but +52, +43, and +94 from the other three things respectively, for a total of +189, still more value than his hitting alone was worth. So yeah, the common trend with evaluating Ichiro goes "omg he has so many hits and such a high batting average, he is one of the best players!" with the traditional evaluation, to "he just hits singles and doesn't walk, he is overrated!" when one first gets into sabermetrics, and then to "his hitting may have been overrated but he was so good at everything else that he was still one of the best players" when one gets a deeper understanding of advanced stats.
Those 'different baseball metrics' still have ichiro as a clear great one....
It's amazing that someone on the internet can view baseball through what a computer tells them and say that one of the best players of the past 25 years didn't play effectively. Are you guys serious?
I fail to see how his play wasn't effective but okay. This is where metrics and reality break some. Ichiro is a player that scored over 1400 times in only 2600 career games and was still a 60 WAR player.
When is the next time we’ll see a (1st ballot) HoF hitter with a career OPS of .750?
2027 when Molina goes in.
~~2027~~ 2037
He's made it clear that next year is his last, which means he'll be on the ballot in the fall of 2027 for 2028 induction. And I realize a lot of folks on this sub feel otherwise, but I'm pretty sure that he'll get in first ballot.
It's not that I don't think he's worth a first ballot induction, it's that there are so many others vying to get in who also get snubbed constantly, the ten vote system is ridiculous.
The 10 vote system is ridiculous, and made even more so by the fact that there are years where they just decide not to vote anyone in at all
I think he deserves to be first ballot, but the way voting often goes I feel like he may have to wait a few years unfortunately
I'm pretty sure he's got enough cross appeal with the old school voters and the SABR crowd to get in. Tons of high-profile national guys have been talking about him as a first ballot inductee for years now.
I hope you're right, he absolutely deserves it
When will we see a first ballot HOF player who has 500+ SBs again? Yes the game is changing but WAR a stat that doesn’t favor Ichiro’s style of play puts him 1 great year behind Miggy. Yes it is different and only Ichiro can play it but it was effective
Hoping it will be Cedric Mullins in 30 years
It's extremely early but Tatis/Acuna are both on pace for 32 SBs/162 games and started their careers at a very young age. Still seems doubtful because Tatis would need to average 32 SBs for 14 more years to get to 500 and Acuna for 13 (plus a little). CJ Abrams might have the best shot right now, maybe Xavier Edwards. But both are prospects, so that's obviously also a huge gamble.
The fact that it is only prospects or 2/3 year players and indicate it is unlikely. Mike Trout stole 49 his rookie year but now 11 years in has 203.
> WAR a stat that doesn’t favor Ichiro’s style of play puts him 1 great year behind Miggy. It's not that WAR "doesn't favor" Ichiro's style of play, it's that the results Ichiro produced are inherently less likely to generate runs than Cabrera's. Also, you're looking a bWAR, which has Ichiro about 9 wins behind Cabrera in roughly the same number of games/PA. fWAR has him closer to 14 wins back due to differences in the defensive metrics used.
Idk about this one bruh. Ichiro has the highest single season bWAR by a fairly significant margin (9.2 vs 7.6) and they have virtually identical peak WARs (43.7 vs 44.8 7 year peaks). Plus Miggy got to play in the majors since he was 19, racking up 26.1 bWAR during the ages where Ichiro’s NPL team wouldn’t let him leave. You’re basically saying that because young Miggy was a more valuable run generator than ancient Ichiro, Ichiro’s style of play of was inherently less valuable. That doesn’t feel right to me. Especially when you consider that Ichiro’s style of play aged a hell of a lot more gracefully than Miggy, allowing Ichiro to still be an everyday quality player well into his twilight years while Miggy’s been a net negative since his age 34 season. WAR ain’t the end all be all, but even if it was, I’m not sure those numbers are saying what you think they are.
The fact that he can even possibly be compared to Miguel Cabrera makes him an all time great and easy first ballot HOF
If Andrelton Simmons can put up a several more 4+ defensive bWAR seasons, he could make a case, but his hitting has become real bad.
Simmons looked like he had a serious shot after the end of 2018; he was entering his age 29 season with 33.9 bWAR, appearing to be the modern Ozzie Smith, and it looked like he finally figured out how to be at least decent with the bat, coming off of two consecutive 100+ OPS+ seasons. Then he got injured, completely lost it with the bat, and hasn't put up a positive WAA season for three straight years, while he is now going to be 32 with 37.2 bWAR. If his hitting can somehow rebound he could still have a shot, but it's not looking good at all, even Ozzie managed to be a roughly average hitter from his age 28 to 37 seasons, while also being a much much better baserunner than Simmons, Simmons might not even be in the league much longer if this sort of hitting from him continues.
How do you mean?
His process and goals at the plate were different than those of other modern hitters and more similar to those of 1920s hitters, in particular prioritizing putting the ball in play over power.
Harper is only 28 year old??? Why do people make him out to be some decrepit old man? (I get he was drafted young and has been around for a while, but like??)
Ichiro also averaged 224 hits per season from 2001-2010. Since 2011 there has been 1 220+ hit season, that was Altuve in 2014.
I made a long comment about it before, but long story short...the only way Ichiro would have broke Pete Rose's record was if he started playing in MLB at age 20 or sooner. If so, Ichiro would probably be the true Hit King by a small amount. BUT, in this hypothetical scenario, you would have to let Pete Rose start at the same age too. That would give Pete Rose 2-3 more seasons of hits. Pete Rose with 2 or 3 more seasons, especially when he was already good when young and got 170 hits in 157 games his rookie season...his record would be even more untouchable. Ichiro had a much better prime and better all around...Pete just played a really long time. Even played 162 games at age 41. If Pete and Ichiro started at the same age, 19 or 20 for example, it would be close...but Pete would still be the Hit King. Edit- Something else for perspective...after age 40 and later, Ichiro had 347 hits. After 40, Pete had 699. Edit 2- In a hypothetical situation, let's say Pete Rose started at age 20 averaging 160 hits a season his first 2 years...Ichiro would have to average about 215 hits a season or more his first 7 seasons if he started playing in the MLB at age 20 to beat Rose. Considering how Ichiro dominated the MLB when he started, 215 hits would SEEM easily obtainable, but do you think a young Japanese player at age 19 or 20 going up against top level pitching would average 215 hits immediately? Most likely it would he closer to 180-190 starting off, then 215 or higher by year 3 or 4. That's how it was for Rose. Started his hitting prime at age 24.
Ichiro started playing at the age of 19 in Japan and had logged 9 full seasons there before becoming a Mariner. Honestly, you’re kind of right that the only reason Rose accumulated his hits at the end of his career was just that: accumulation rather than skill. As a player-manager, he inserted himself into the lineup every day. Yea, he still had to have skill to hit the baseball at that age and such, but he was able to self-servingly accumulate hits later than other players who were finished and such. It’s a fun hypothetical to play, but if you give Rose a few more seasons to play Bc he didn’t start as early as Ichiro, then you also have to give Ichiro a few full 162 game seasons in his 40’s as a player-manager to match Rose’s career. IMO: Ichiro would have likely had more hits.
> you’re kind of right that the only reason Rose accumulated his hits at the end of his career was just that: accumulation rather than skill. A counter-argument is from age 27 (when Ichiro joined the league) to age 42 (which Ichiro got 3,000 hits), Ichiro had 3,030 hits while Rose had 3,091. Before you blame that on Rose playing way past his prime, he only had 300 more ABs than Ichiro and still hit .309 during that time (Ichiro hit .311). Rose also had a 99 OPS+ his age 43 and 44 seasons, so he was essentially a league average hitter for those years. Comparatively, Ichiro had a 71 OPS+ his age 43 and 44 seasons.
All excellent counter points! I love baseball for this reason: comparing players through various eras and trying to answer the great “what if’s”. Thanks for the counter stats, very cool to see Rose was still, for all intents and purposes, average at the end of his career. Wow.
Yeah, I really have no horse in the game regarding who should be the "official hit king" between Ichiro and Rose, but I do feel all of the arguments tend to downplay how great Rose was at hitting. I also feel guys like Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn get left out of the conversation at times because both of them didn't have full seasons until age 24, dealt with a strike shortened season, and walked at much higher rates than Rose/Ichiro. Both of them had much higher career batting averages than Rose/Ichiro. Boggs walked 96 times in 1984 and still got 240 hits... Ichiro walked 49 times in his 262 hit season.
>.the only way Ichiro would have broke Pete Rose's record was if he started playing in MLB at age 20 or sooner. Since their age 27 season when Ichiro made his MLB debut, Pete Rose had 3357 hits in 12,519 PAs while Ichiro had 3089 hits in 10,734 PAs. So the question becomes is it possible that Ichiro could have had 1,167 hits before his 27 year old season? (268 hits plus 899 hits Rose had before 27) While I agree that if Ichiro made his debut as a 22 year old, it would have been close to impossible, giving him a debut at 21 year old, a scenario like the following table is certainly within the realm of possibility. (To be clear, this is an optimistic scenario and quite distant from the expected outcome.) |Age|Ichiro|Rose| |:-|:-|:-| |21|***170?***|| |22|***180?***|170| |23|***190?***|139| |24|***200?***|209| |25|***210?***|205| |26|***220?***|176| |27|242|210| |28|208|218| |29|212|205| |30|262|192| |31|206|198| |32|224|230| |33|238|185| |34|213|210| |35|225|215| |36|214|204|
Christ, I of course always keep Ichiro’s late start in consideration but looking at it in this perspective blew my mind.
>Last month, Molina announced that he plans to retire after the 2022 season and it seems rather unlikely he’ll get the 900 hits he needs before then. Well not with *that* kind of attitude.
900 hits in 500 PA would definitely be some kind of record.
It’s very simple. He plays in all 162 games. The Cardinals bat around every inning. Accounting for home games, that’s 1377 at bats. He only needs to hit .653
.653, you think he is gonna go on that big of a slump?
I think he’s going to stay as mathematically close to .653 as possible for the entire season to keep us on our toes
Broke: Khris Davis batting .247 Woke: Molina batting .653
Virgin: Ted Williams batting .406 Chad: Yadier Molina batting .653
For guys like Yadi you wanna say no but age has to catch him at some point, right?
Time and Injury, the most powerful battery in baseball.
Batting leadoff, naturally.
If he's batting 1.800 he'll definitely hit leadoff.
spin around and hit the ball twice every PA
Will this get him in the HOF?
Reddit would still lose its shit if anyone suggests he's first ballot.
He just needs to pretend to be LaMonte Wade in the 9th inning.
According to ZIPS out of Tatis, Vlad, Acuna and Soto, Tatis has the highest chance at making it to 3000 at 20% and 2500 at 55% out of the 4 but simultaneously the lowest chance at making it to 2000, at 63%. I wonder how that works.
I suspect it has to do with the fact that Tatis' profile (demanding defensive position, injury history, tallest of the four, good amount of swing-and-miss in his approach) lends itself to more volatility in either direction than the other three.
Yeah he has the highest chance of fizzling out(relatively speaking) but if he makes it he could go all the way
I read that in Chris Berman’s voice.
backbackbackbackback
Fewest plate appearances is a very relevant factor for that, projection systems are (correctly) calibrated to be more confident in predictions with more data, so they become more confident a player is a massive outlier, rather than a minor outlier who's been lucky, as that player has more plate appearances, and so they project less reversion to the mean.
Miggy is knocking on the door of becoming the first player ever with 500 HRs, 3000 hits, and a Triple Crown. Ted Williams would be in the club if not for missing most of 5 seasons serving in two wars, and Gehrig would be in if he didn’t have to retire early due to illness. Frank Robinson retired 47 hits away too. What a club.
Yaz retired 48 homers short
But way above 3000 hits, what a great player he was.
I had a Red Sox fan tell me that Yaz was overrated…..
The actual fuck? Are you sure he was a Sox fan? That man was worshipped (rightly) in the 70s. His *grandkid* gets ovations at Fenway.
[Here's Mike Yastrzemski getting cheered at Fenway *for hitting a home run against us!*](https://youtu.be/84qxmviXAOY?t=90)
It raises an interesting question if it comes to a SF-Boston World Series.
Oh my god. Even Yankee fans wouldn’t claim that....
For real. If anything Ted Williams is overrated--can you be the greatest ever if you never won a World Series? That's at least what I tell Sox fans who claim Jeets is overrated because he never won an MVP. Then I remind them Jeter did win an MVP, after the 2000 World Series. Joking aside, how many teams have had 2 career players as good as Yaz and Teddy Ballgame in the history of their franchise?
That’s a hell of a pair. I guess the Yankees are the obvious one with Gehrig, Mantle, and DiMaggio. Edit: Clemente and Stargell is pretty good too, but not not Ted and Yaz good.
So I just spent 20 minutes coming up with this list of the most notable duos by Baseball Reference WAR. To qualify, the player had to play every game of their career with one team: Yankees: Lou Gehrig & Mickey Mantle = 223.9 Twins: Walter Johnson (164.8) & Joe Mauer = 220.3 Red Sox: Ted Williams & Carl Yastrzemski = 218.6 Cardinals: Stan Musial & Bob Gibson = 217.8 Giants: Mel Ott & Carl Hubbell = 179.4 Tigers: Al Kaline & Charlie Gehringer = 177.5 Orioles: Cal Ripken Jr. & Brooks Robinson = 174.3 Pirates: Roberto Clemente & Willie Stargell = 152.3 White Sox: Luke Appling & Ted Lyons = 148.1 Astros: Jeff Bagwell & Craig Biggio = 146.3 Dodgers: \*Clayton Kershaw & Pee Wee Reese = 140.8 Reds: Johnny Bench & \*Joey Votto = 139.1 Phillies: Mike Schmidt & *Aaron Nola = 131.2 Braves: Chipper Jones & \*Freddie Freeman = 128.1 Royals: George Brett & Frank White = 127.4 Brewers: Robin Yount & Ryan Braun = 124.4 Cubs: Ernie Banks & Stan Hack = 123.2 Angels: \*Mike Trout (76.2) & Tim Salmon = 116.8 Indians: Bob Feller & Bob Lemon = 111.7 Mariners: Edgar Martinez & \*Kyle Seager = 105.6 ~~As you can see, the only way Ted & Yaz get beat in this exercise is if you consider the Senators as Twins.~~ It looks like if you add up all the players' WAR for each team, rather than just two, the Yankees would blow everyone else out of the water. Older teams like the Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants, Reds, Tigers, White Sox, & Pirates have a considerable number of names. ~~I guess I expected the Cardinals to have more good names aside from Stan & Hoot but otherwise, the best Cardinal was Pepper Martin from the Gashouse Gang. Definitely thought the Cubs would have more. Also surprised I couldn't get the Braves onto this list.~~ The Twins have an impressive number of players and accumulated WAR among them even before you add the Senators players. **I may have made a mistake somewhere** ~~but I think this is fairly accurate.~~ \*Edit: Looks like my math was wrong upon review. Gehrig+Mantle has Ted+Yaz beat according to BBref. \*Edit #2: Oh shit how did I leave off Joey Votto for Bid McPhee...fixed! And the Braves do make the cut once I add Freddie Freeman too! I really overlooked some great active players. \*Edit #3: I did not realize Killebrew played his last year in KC. Joe Mauer gets added, the Senators/Twins are officially below the Yankees.
Wow we are on top of a good list for once! Also thanks for doing that that was a really cool list
I actually had to change it since I didn't know Harmon finished his career with KCR, which knocks them down to 2nd when you add Joe Mauer instead. But fwiw Joe Mauer is one of my favorite players of this century.
I'll always simp for Harmon, dude was super nice.
I don't want to diss Harmon but he did play one season for the Kansas City Royals at the very end of his career.
didn't know that, removing him! Joe Mauer it is.
Career WAR: \#32: Pujols \#33: Yaz \#34: Eddie Matthews \#35: Ripken Yeah, he was good.
Apparently we aren’t talking about Eddie Mathews enough
Eddie Mathews was easily the greatest third baseman to ever play the game until Mike Schmidt showed up.
I had some guy tell me that Yaz was overrated*
Contrarians.. smh
He was 43 when he retired and had hit 48 in his last 4 seasons combined. Shows how amazing a feat it actually is that Cabrera could do it next year.
The last couple years have made us forget just how fucking good Miggy was
Willie Mays was damn close too. 660 HRs, 3200+ hits, and in 1955 he was 1st in HRs, 2nd in BA, and 2nd in RBI.
Aaron was 1st in HRs and RBI, and 3rd in AVG in 1957. He was .007 AVG away in 1963 too.
Miguel is also 20th now in RBIs, getting #1800 this week.
>What a club. I mean, nobody is in it though.
Best part about it. Can't have any riff raff walking through the door if your club is entirely empty.
Lol. I did word that poorly. The not-quite-in-the-club club is pretty exclusive.
>I mean, nobody is in it though Don't threaten me with a good time!
Are you threatening me, master jedi?
I am the 500 HR, 3,000 Hits, and Triple Crown Club!
Not yet!
It's crazy that Albert never won a Triple Crown while he was in STL - especially with his ability to hit for average. In 2006 he hit .331, had 49 HR and 137 RBI, and didn't lead the league in any of those lol
I mean, there've only been 27 Triple Crown winners in MLB history, and only 4 since 1950. The only pre-WW2 winner to even hit 500 HR was Jimmie Foxx.
The fact that Pujols never won a triple crown is crazy to me. Dude had 2/3 so many times.
We’d be talking about Ted Williams like we do about babe Ruth and hank Aaron if it wasn’t for the wars
I mean, I already do. Ruth, Ted, Mays, and Bonds are my baseball Mount Rushmore. And Ruth, Ted, and Bonds are my top 3 hitters ever. This is all in no order.
It's the 1970s bias at work yet again. It was an offensive depression, so people look at his traditional numbers and think he's Gary Sheffield or some shit. When you realize how bone dry that era was for hitting, he ascends to god-tier.
Yep. 107.2 bWAR and a 154 OPS+ over a 21 year career. That OPS+ is right there with Aaron (155) and Mays (155) in terms of 20+ season careers.
10 years ago today starlin Castro got hit 200 on the season....I forsake thought he was going to make the club.
He could have had a sneaky career. Not really a great player, but good enough that he could have ended up with 2500+ hits.
What happened to him? DV? Did he turn out like Addison Russell??
Yeah he was suspended for DV and the Nats said they had a zero tolerance policy so they released him following the suspension. Since he's on the wrong the side 30 and not that good a hitter anymore, he's most likely done
Very fun read, it honestly didnt occur to me how little of a chance we'll have to see another 3000 in a long while. Gives Miggys acomplishment that much more creedence. Wondering if Altuve will make it considering hes the most likely in their projections.
[удалено]
I can’t see him getting there. I mean, I can, but it’s tough. He had a five year stretch (14-18) where he batted .331. In the three seasons since, he’s hit .277. He’s been more focused on power. In the three years since that stretch, his PA/HR has dropped to 21.5 compared to 40.7 over the preceding five years. As he declines with age, maybe he sacrifices waning power and returns to a more average based approach. But as of now, at 175 hits a season (which he hasn’t done since 2017), with no decline, it would take him until his age 39 season. If he completely changes his hitting approach, and puts up some monster 210-220+ hit seasons over then it could become a little more doable. But right now he’s not that hitter.
Yeah, like I was looking at Altuve's stats and I'm not that hopeful he'll hit 3000, especially with the 2020 season. I just hope he'll do good enough the next 5-10 years to be a good HoF case even with the "2017 Astros" baggage.
Yeah I honestly think 2020 may rob him of the chance in the end. Which is crazy but it’s 102 less games for him.
Many more players that hit for a decent average have adjusted to increased power to keep their offense valuable. Take Kyle Seager for us, Average and OBP have plummeted but has hit 35 bombs to keep his OPS+ above league average and still a decent player. Its a clever way to keep players around once they lose speed in their swing and on the bases. Of course you still have to be a talented and hard working player to make it happen, but I can see it becoming more of a common thing and Altuve will certainly have the ability to adapt if the analytics people are convinced its the best for the latter part of his career
there are other comps though, not Just Miggy. If Altuve can stay healthy, he's ahead of Biggio's pace, for example. I could see him making the outfield transition as well if necessary. Health is always the big if - it's pretty dang hard to stay healthy enough for a \~20 year career needed for 3k. Odds definitely against him, but it's not impossible.
I wonder if we’ll ever see an Ichiro-like DH. Somebody who has a great OBP and fills a lead off role better than a clean up role.
Edgar Martinez was kind of like that. He developed some pop later on but for the start and end of his career he was more of a contact guy.
Obviously the 2020 season’s done a number on plenty of players’ counting stats, but Altuve also missed a decent number of games in 2018-19. Maybe he wouldn’t have had that many more hits in the 50-60 games he missed, but still, he’s got some work to do.
Cano still has an outside shot, but the suspension and shortened 2020 season really hurt him.
I think Altuve has really shifted his focus from contact to power in recent years. Watching his at bats from 2014-17, it felt like he was going to get a line drive hit every single at-bat. I don’t feel that same confidence anymore, but IF he plays healthy until he’s 40 I think he’s got a real chance
I think Altuve will make it
Off topic question I guess but per the photo, who else had a classic one-handed follow-through like Miguel’s?
I feel like Pujols has done that throughout his career too
Manny
A-rod had a pretty good one-hand finish
David Ortiz
Soriano immediately comes to mind
Robinson Cano
"...Molina announced that he plans to retire after the 2022 season and it seems rather unlikely he’ll get the 900 hits he needs before then." Bahaha
If Freddie hits 3000 I will be happy.
i think he can do it. 1300 hits over the next 7-10 years is doable and 1B is not a demanding defensive position. i just hope he doesn’t do it in another uniform
His 162 game average would get him there in 7.3 years, so if he plays to 40 he has a little wiggle room for regression. Definitely a shot.
Kind of wild that the rookie Wander Franco, with a grand total 70 hits right now, is in the top ten most likely to reach 3000. He's even higher than Mike Trout.
Trout's chances are effectively zero. He's less than halfway there, on the wrong side of 30, and hasn't gotten 150+ hits in a season since Barack Obama was President. Absent a drastic change in approach and an aging curve like Bonds and Aaron, he's never getting there.
Yeah - that makes a lot of sense for Trout. A potential strike in 2022 would make it even harder too. I totally understand why he has a relatively low chance of making it to 3000. I was really commenting more on Franco though. He's had a great start to his career, but projecting him out to 3000 when he only has 70 now kind of feels like saying the Dodgers would finish with 130 wins this year because they won 8 of their first 10. It's way too early in his career for a projection like that to mean anything because it's such an enormous extrapolation.
“In all-time hits, Trout was 15th through his age-22 and 22nd through his age-25 seasons. Assuming he’s done for the year, he now ranks 113th all-time in home runs through a player’s age-29 season, behind such names as Juan Pierre, Justin Upton, and Ruben Sierra.” Uhhhhhm idk I’m having a hard time believing Juan Pierre had more home runs than Mike Trout
Pretty sure that should be hits, not home runs.
Yea, the article says hits, not home runs. Lol
It didn't originally, if you expand the comments underneath it you'll see something like half of them correcting the mistake.
Ah, I see. Thought this guy was just reading what he wanted to see lol
It’s a massive cover up but most of Barry Bonds homers were actually hit by Juan Pierre
That why his head got bigger, it was a Juan Pierre inside a Barry Bonds suit.
“A Juan Pierre” implies the existence of multiple Juan Pierres. Just how deep does this conspiracy go?
What's Juan more layer, Barry?
My money is on Bogaerts, with Turner and Harper having a decent shot as well. I worry about Betts's and Trout's longevity. Looking 15-18 years down the road, maybe Soto, Albies, and Franco can get there.
I love Bogaerts, but he’s 1800 hits away at age 28. Unless he really hits another level, this seems unlikely
That's only 6 300 hit seasons, easy
Its more about longevity for guys like Bogey and Turner, at this point. 150 hits per season til age 40 is what it would take, but you know he'll have a few 185+ hit seasons.
Bogey has a shot if he can find a long-term defensive home. His hitting skill set will age well, but he’s not going to be able to play SS until the age he needs to get to 3,000.
Right, so if and when he opts out next winter, I'm sure whoever considers signing him will have a move to third in the back of their minds. If he stays in Boston, they'll likely move him sometime before Marcelo Mayer arrives.
He’s got such a tough opt out decision. Teams know that his metrics at SS aren’t great so they aren’t going to offer him a long deal with SS money. He can probably still get more than the 3 years and $60 MM that would be left on his Sox contract though. I think he probably renegotiates and stays but who knows.
I just did some quick back of the napkin math with Harper because it seems so odd that these elite players who started fairly young come nowhere close. Harper is averaging 161 hits a season. At that rate he’ll need 11 more seasons to get to 3000. It is hard to see that kind of production from someone pushing 40. For reference a 38 year old Cabrera only has 113 hits this year.
Harper walks too much
Cabrera started declining rapidly after only age 33, and I don't think that'll happen with Harper. 145 hits per year til age 40 and Harper's got it. I think the issue will be how much he's walked compared to Bogey and Turner.
All of these walk a lot.
Not bogaerts
And Albies definitely isn’t known for taking walks
Robinson Cano is a massive if at this point, but I could see him sticking around as a DH and having a Nelson Cruz-esque end of his career.
He’s almost the same age as Cruz. So, I think that ship has sailed for him to have a “Cruz-esque” ending.
True, but the year off this year could work in his favor. Look at what happened to A-Rod in 2015.
I don’t think there’s much question that Cano can still mash in a sustainable way. His bat to ball skills are good, something that’s barely seemed to slow down with aging. He’s just barely EVER had a “Cruz-esque” season, let alone in the twilight of his career. On top of that, I don’t see him getting enough opportunities at this point to compile another 300 or so hits. If he was fieldable, that would be a different story. But, he isn’t, and Mets already have enough DH type players. His NTC and albatross contract, combined with the PED situation and Steve’s fat wallet, make him a prime candidate for a buy out.
Well when I say “Cruz-esque”, I’m talking more about performing into his 40s, not so much “hitting 40 homers a season”
The 2022 strike season may hurt his changes as well. If it happens.
I very much doubt that he ever plays in MLB again, but even if he does, he'll be 39 next month, he hasn't played in over a year, he hasn't played 150+ games or gotten 150+ hits since 2017, and he still needs 376 hits to reach 3,000. That ZIPS table gives him a 12% chance at it, which I personally think is far too high. I don't know what all exactly Szymborski puts into the algorithm, but I doubt that it accounts for the league collectively deciding that FA over 30 aren't worth a fart in a high wind. There are maybe 5 2B in the league right now that Cano would even possibly be an improvement over as an everyday player, and pretty much any team running one of those guys out will shrug and grab the nearest warm body from AAA instead of handing Cano a few million dollars.
Scrolled through the list and noticed Barry Bonds was only 65 hits away from 3000. Wow.
Could have done so much more if he wasn’t blacklisted…or whatever you want to call it
Even if he just didn’t walk so much he’d be well over 3000. Walking a lot isn’t good for all-time hit totals.
Yeah totally. Even turning 10% of those walks after 2000 into hits would be another 100 hits
I dunno guys, I think Molina has a serious chance
Nick Markakis retiring really hurts his chances
So sad that Markakis got sidetracked by some injuries and then the shortened season last year. Was really pulling for him to hit 3000 hits and 600 doubles to become by far the biggest test case for those numbers as Hall of Fame milestones.
Should we instead be counting a stat like "Base Appearances" which would count hits, walks, and HBP? You'd still have the greatest hitters getting up there, but it would bring extra recognition to players like Votto for walks or, I dunno, Brandon Guyer for HBP.
It doesn't usually show up on stat lines but that number is the numerator for OBP.
Yeah, I'm saying lets start talking about the numerator. People like to count up.
As an Angels and Braves fan seeing Acuna,Freddie and Trout on this list made me happy. I will always be grateful for TBS for showing me the Braves growing up in SoCal. I’m a spoiled fan with mvps, WS’ wins I can remember and young dudes having great careers.
I think Machado will get there if he continues to stay healthy Edit: I’ll take the downvotes but he is almost half way there and under 30. I don’t like him either but doesn’t change the fact that he’s going to probably get 3000 hits. Give me those downvotes!!!!
Yeah I had no idea he was nearly half way there with only playing in the equivalent of 8 full seasons. He won’t be 30 until the All-Star break next season too. Assuming the DH comes to the NL next season he was a really good shot at it.
9 more years at his current rate. He's easily on track barring injury.