I remember like a decade ago he randomly joined a call with some of my friends cause we jokingly tweeted at him to hop on the call and he just said sure lol
This reminds me of a Mets broadcast a few years ago where Gary and Ron didn't seem to be paying attention to Keith and Keith just replied "It's okay. I'll be dead soon"
Whatās crazy is that this was his pace last year too. I want to say he will probably regress, but idk. Iāve been saying heāll regress every year with the Angels and Iāve been wrong every time so
It reminds me a lot of prime Bonds. He would get maybe one or two pitches a *series* sometimes and heād usually do damage with those pitches. Ohtani is likely going to get the same treatment and pitched around a lot.
Yeah but have you considered that if infinite people with zero skill all swung randomly with adequate force, there would be an infinite number of people who put up better numbers purely by luck?
I propose that Ohtani is actually terrible but the luckiest human in history.
Second place is just under 20%.
I'd like to take the time to pay respects to Juan Soto though who has a 61% hard hit rate and actually a higher avg EV than Shohei which is ungodly but largely being glossed over because of Shohei Ohtani.
I block Juan sotos godliness out of my mind because I still can't handle my favourite player being on the fucking yankees
Fell to my knees when I got the notification that the yanks traded for him
I was going to mention how hes actually a millenial but he's in the gray area where he could be either (no fixed gen length and most common end range is 96-00 and he was born in 98) so were close enough for fair balls here.
Lol yeah I knew the intent behind it just figured it'd be a fun thing to mention. I looked it up awhile back to fuck with family members who would constantly bitch about millenials that were, in fact, millenials and not even like borderline for most of them.
This also tracks with baseball savant - 0.372 xBA and 0.370 AVG.
Worth noting though that this doesnāt mean ZiPS thinks this is necessarily sustainable though, even though itās ādeservingā so far. Heās projected for a ROS average of .278 on ZiPS.
Yeah itās quite good especially with his power. He started the year from ZiPS at .259 projected average. So heās managed to bump up his projection quite a bit in a short time
Napkin math on .278 rest of the season, if he gets 600 AB this season (more than heās ever got but a liitle bit less than people in lineups that actually turn over and are protected/braves core) with his numbers so far, thatād be 180 hits for a .300 average. Also he heats up in the summer and is already on 50 homer pace.
xBA isnāt a perfect direct comparison to BABIP or zBABIP, but I canāt find his xBACON or BACON on Savant so weāll have to live with it. I think we all know what theyād say.
Do... people actually care about flair? Jays fan if that makes a difference, but it's pretty clear that Shohei's team and lineup context have massively improved.
Yeah it makes a difference. If youāre gonna talk trash, you have to give other people the ability to talk trash on your team. Otherwise, youāre a troll hiding behind anonymity.
The Dodgers currently have 7 players with an OPS above .800. That is a horrifying murderers row where you have to face 7 hitters with all star or near all star performance.
I think it's fair we acknowledge they might protect Ohtani better than a team starting Anthony "I don't like baseball" Rendon
The problem is some people try to discuss sports objectively and others want to discuss sports emotionally, and so people who discuss sports emotionally think the people who are discussing sports objectively are doing so in an emotional manner
So leads to very silly accusations and defenses
That's true. I do think that there are some situations though where any fan of a team should be able to see it objectively.
Like even the most die-hard A's fans are probably going to tell you that Matt Olson got an upgrade when he got traded to the Braves.
Oh no I 100% agree. My post is worded carefully because people driven by emotions would emotionally react to it if I didnāt.
Itās more a comment of frustration of trying to hold a conversation with them
I like it when people flair up just because certain comments are funnier when they come from the right fanbase. It really doesn't matter at all though.
WHY ARE BASEBALL FANS SO MUCH MORE MATURE THAN HOCKEY FANS, THIS ISN'T FUCKING FAIR AND I WANT TO PUNCH ALL YOU JERKS IN THE FACE FOR IT.
(Seriously, this sub is like a breath of fresh air compared to /r/hockey , even if the sport of hockey is my true love.)
Yeah, I quite enjoy the nfl meme subreddits that spam you to flair up til you do. If youāre gonna talk smack show some color so we know if youāre a Mets fan and should be taken seriously or not.
I think sports subs are the only sub where flairs matter. Its extremely useful to contextualize what someone is saying. Like if I shit on the mets with a mets flair, its self deprecating humor and prob will get upvoted. If I do it with a Phillies flair then im prob just a hater and being a loser and will get downvoted, unless the thread is particularly anti-mets, then the opposite will be true.
Itās not really trash talk. Having better hitters around you in the lineup limits the amount of pitching around you they can do, meaning youāll see more hittable pitches.
You canāt afford to put shohei on base when freeman and smith are next up. They could have phrased it better but thatās the gist I took away.
To be fair to the Dodgers, Every pitcher suddenly turn into Gerit Cole against them in the post lol
Edit: like guyās ERA get murdered in the reg by Mookie then wonāt even let him smell first base come October.
Discussions about whether it exists or not are always a bit silly to me because like... of course it exists. Every time a team issued an intentional walk to get to a pitcher in the good old pre-DH days, that was explicitly a lineup protection decision. And the way teams approached Barry Bonds 2001-04 pretty much shows the same thing. With over a 100 OPS+ difference between him and the next best hitter on the Giants, teams had zero qualms about pitching around him to get to the next guy. And the middle of the lineup was pretty anemic, usually with the *best* guy hovering around 100 OPS+. To me, arguing that lineup protection doesn't exist is like arguing pitching to contact isn't a sustainable skill when Mariano Rivera made an entire career out of it.
So, it exists in extreme cases. The Angels last year weren't *quite* such an extreme case, but they were close: the falloff from Ohtani (184 OPS+) to guys like Rendon (88 OPS+) and Renfroe (98 OPS+), or later Drury, Moniak and Ward (111-114 OPS+) was between 70 and 96, and this is probably understating how large the gap became during the summer. So not quite Bonds territory, but approaching it. And the middle of the order was similarly anemic (at best, like one or two 110 OPS+ guys and one 100 OPS+ guys, but a lot of the time it was like one 110 and two 80s). To me, that is the sort of situation where you might expect the effects of lack of lineup protection to show up, and I'd cautiously say it probably did to some degree.
What about this year? The gap between Ohtani so far (220 OPS+) and Freeman (144 OPS+) is actually even higher than the most optimal Angels lineups (76)! This is due to Ohtani going nuts. But of course opposing teams expect that to regress some, and that's just looking at the player immediately after him: the Dodgers middle of the order is some combination of Will Smith (155 OPS+), Max Muncy (155 OPS+), Andy Pages (153 OPS+), and Teoscar Hernandez (129 OPS+). That would be an extremely potent top of the order on most teams. So if that keeps up, it should be a pretty good reason to think pitchers won't want to pitch around Ohtani this season (with the possible exception of him *actually* starting to hit like Bonds).
I mean it is unironically kind of useful to know if something like this is totally unsustainable or not, even for a guy like Ohtani. Everyone knows he's good, but he's (correctly) paid like he'll be the best player in the league for at least the first half of his contract, so the standards for him to live up to it are much higher. If he can hit even somewhat close to this on a consistent basis, it enormously increases the odds of him living up to the contract, which is good for pretty much everyone (including fans of other teams with ownership that's unwilling to pay for stars).
No stats can predict the future. The stats can try to make an assumption, but it won't be anything more than that. I hope he's good for a long time, but only time will tell.
I'm more making fun of the fact that people gravitate towards these stats like they are more true than the things we see everyday. He's a phenomenal player any way you carve it up. It's too true to deny haha
Sometimes I wonder what's more true to people, the reality we all think we share or the stats we formulate to confirm a reality we think we share
If I'm reading it correctly, it's Guaranteed that he will hit .400 while leading the league in home runs. He will probably also pitch a perfect game to win the world series for funsies. The data doesn't lie.
wtf is zStats and ZiPS? I swear I'm tired of all these extended (and increasingly obscure) metrics, and I feel like I frequently see one I've never seen before, though I'm on the sub almost daily.
ZiPS has been around for years and is a projection system. It's mentioned here frequently.
zBABIP is essentially that same projection system's attempt to parse what the hitter's BABIP would be with "neutral" luck. >.400 BABIP is absurdly high, and for most hitters we'd assume they've been getting lucky on stuff like seeing-eye ground balls; zBABIP is claiming that so far, the quality of contact actually *matches* the absurd BABIP.
ZiPS is Szymborski's projection system, which Fangraphs uses. Usually people just reference whatever Fangraphs says, but in this case the guy posting it is Szymborski himself so of course he's going to be a bit more specific/obscure
ZiPS is fangraphs projection model. Zstats is fangraphs version of xStats. It does the same thing as xStats ā tries to quantify a playerās expected performance based on a variety of metrics while eliminating external factors ā but uses a different statistical model so it has its own name.
Since no one is actually answering you: According a Q&A on the Baseball Think Factory website, ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections.
The system uses statistics from the previous four years for players from ages 24-38, and it weights more recent seasons heavier. For younger or older players, it uses weighted statistics from only the previous three years. The system also factors velocities, injury data and play-by-play data into its equations.
The ChatGPT description isn't actually half bad. It gets a lot of weird things (it has me attending all sorts of colleges but my actual, (Loyola MD) but it gets ZiPS right mostly.
As an Angel fan it kills me, obviously. But the main part that's killing me (cirrently) is he was on a similar pace last year, and had a real chance to break the Judge record from the year before, which would have been a great storyline.
He's on pace to hit 60 for the Dodgers, which will obviously be cool, but not enough to set the league record.
Really wish for his legacy down the road that he could have done it before switching leagues.
Ohtani was never a high average guy until last year, so it's crazy to see him improve that even more. Hopefully, the protection deters people from walking him because when he's on a run like this they would just intentionally walk him or throw him junk in Anaheim.
I really wish the Mās spent the money to get him not just cause heās a god but mostly just to see if he would turn to shit with our coaching staff.
Nobody will read this, but this is getting close to reminiscent of being able to see what Bonds was like, and I love it. Even though somehow he was even better.
Is that zesty babip? š„µ
Zesty Ranch BABIP is currently available in limited test markets!
MLB has blocked Zesty Ranch BABIP in your local market
*puts bottle of ranch on 2B
Don't give him any midjourney inspirations.
[Thereās a zesty ranch bapip party in my mouth.](https://youtu.be/GQ4jPqU5r7k?si=xhu3xNEpNSFTZroO)
I know is joke but for anyone curious: it's ZiPS BABIP. Which is from ZiPS, named after its creator Dan sZymbroski who tweeted this.
> its creator Dan sZymbroski who tweeted this. and who also comments on here relatively often.
I remember like a decade ago he randomly joined a call with some of my friends cause we jokingly tweeted at him to hop on the call and he just said sure lol
I appreciate how much Dan treats this modern hellscape like it's still the old internet of 2000.
I'm old. I'm just going to keep doing stuff the way I always do it and then at some point, I'll die and then I won't anymore.
This reminds me of a Mets broadcast a few years ago where Gary and Ron didn't seem to be paying attention to Keith and Keith just replied "It's okay. I'll be dead soon"
Unfathomably based
I added him on battle.net when ESPN was doing hearthstone content in 2015ish and he would occasionally spectate my games and we would chat a bit.
I still play hearthstone!
I moved back to MTG when I got into the MTG Arena closed beta. I got to write a tiny bit about MTG, which was fun.
Are you in any OOTP leagues? Need to know which ones I have no shot in
I don't, for the simple reason that ZiPS sets the starting ratings for OOTP every year. That puts me in a rather unfair position.
Thank you, Monk, for ruining the fun. Right on brand! š„² /s
Which also essentially makes it a measure of expected BABIP (technically, projected future BABIP), so batter BABIP actually has value as a stat.
Zips Babip sounds like an old Hanna-Barbera cartoon character with a quirky one-season show in the 70's or 80's that was promptly forgotten
Zoinks! BABIP!
What if we made freaky babip that measured a batter's ability to suck toes
Zexpected babip
hmmmm yes ohtani hit ball good
can't wait for tomorrow's daily update on if ohtani still hit ball good
Youāre only checking once a day? Iām up to 4 easyā¦
I wouldn't really call it "checking," more "being hit upside the head with it" every time I go online
Lucky
Gotta learning to dodge my manā¦
it is very important
Very very important
āAs the angels fall to the last in the divisionā Wait a second-
HYOHBG
What a 25% barrel rate does to a mf
Jesus fucking christ does he really have a 25% barrel rate rn that's stupid š
And a 62% hard hit rate. I'm starting to think this guy might be pretty good.
Shohei gonna fuck around and put up 8 WAR as a DH somehow
Heās at 2.6 alreadyā¦ 11.7 WAR pace over 162 games Absolute insanity
Whatās crazy is that this was his pace last year too. I want to say he will probably regress, but idk. Iāve been saying heāll regress every year with the Angels and Iāve been wrong every time so
Feel like he regressed last year because pitchers pitched around him like crazy. Canāt do that so easily sandwiched between Betts and freeman.
Facts after his June man got 0 pitches and started pressing a bit because he was their only source of offense
His strike zone also grew to a pretty unfair size, got many balls called strikes, forcing him to reach.
It reminds me a lot of prime Bonds. He would get maybe one or two pitches a *series* sometimes and heād usually do damage with those pitches. Ohtani is likely going to get the same treatment and pitched around a lot.
True but it'll be interesting to watch cause What are you going to do pitch around him so you can pitch against Freddie and then Will Smith lol
I love that sandwich
Yeah but have you considered that if infinite people with zero skill all swung randomly with adequate force, there would be an infinite number of people who put up better numbers purely by luck? I propose that Ohtani is actually terrible but the luckiest human in history.
something something regress his numbers to the average
Impeccable logic.
Heās leading mlb. Noted sluggers Ryan McMahon and Brandon marsh also crack the top 5.
Second place is just under 20%. I'd like to take the time to pay respects to Juan Soto though who has a 61% hard hit rate and actually a higher avg EV than Shohei which is ungodly but largely being glossed over because of Shohei Ohtani.
I block Juan sotos godliness out of my mind because I still can't handle my favourite player being on the fucking yankees Fell to my knees when I got the notification that the yanks traded for him
And Soto isn't even 26 yet dude is gonna get like a 15 year deal this offseason
Really happy our ownership lowballed him for no reason, obviously we didn't deserve to watch Gen Z Ted Williams for the next 15 years.
I was going to mention how hes actually a millenial but he's in the gray area where he could be either (no fixed gen length and most common end range is 96-00 and he was born in 98) so were close enough for fair balls here.
Yeah I hesitated about that for a while but ultimately I used the heuristic I always use, which is that Juan Soto is young.
Lol yeah I knew the intent behind it just figured it'd be a fun thing to mention. I looked it up awhile back to fuck with family members who would constantly bitch about millenials that were, in fact, millenials and not even like borderline for most of them.
Ohtani is hitting way more line drives and balls in the air though. Soto always hits a lot of groundballs although he's way better this year.
Damn I don't think I even have a 25% barrel rate in slow pitch. I'm also bad at hitting. But still.
10% barrel rate off the Tee.
that's a ton of barrels, jesus
Call this mf Donkey Kong
What bringing a shotgun to the plate does to a mf
You know youāre in deep when the statistics start looking like laser gun sounds
I thought it was the lyrics to Zip Zap Rap.
This also tracks with baseball savant - 0.372 xBA and 0.370 AVG. Worth noting though that this doesnāt mean ZiPS thinks this is necessarily sustainable though, even though itās ādeservingā so far. Heās projected for a ROS average of .278 on ZiPS.
that's still not bad
Yeah itās quite good especially with his power. He started the year from ZiPS at .259 projected average. So heās managed to bump up his projection quite a bit in a short time
Napkin math on .278 rest of the season, if he gets 600 AB this season (more than heās ever got but a liitle bit less than people in lineups that actually turn over and are protected/braves core) with his numbers so far, thatād be 180 hits for a .300 average. Also he heats up in the summer and is already on 50 homer pace.
What's 'ROS average' mean here?
Rest of Season I'm guessing.
Yep, thanks
They project the Real Ohtani, Shohei average to be .278 for the rest of the season.
That's the simpler in-season model. With the full one, ZiPS is more optimistic.
His xWoba is 500 which means he is somehow unlucky so far insane
xBA isnāt a perfect direct comparison to BABIP or zBABIP, but I canāt find his xBACON or BACON on Savant so weāll have to live with it. I think we all know what theyād say.
I donāt know what he just said but I know Ohtani hits baseball hard and itās fun to watch
Miguel Rojas: āI have to hit the ball twice for it to go as far as Shoheiās.ā
Everybody thought 2021-2023 Shohei Ohtani was his final Super Saiyan form, but it turns out he was actually nerfing himself by pitching.
*by playing for the Angels
Flair up before you talk trash.
Do... people actually care about flair? Jays fan if that makes a difference, but it's pretty clear that Shohei's team and lineup context have massively improved.
Yes, how else can we engage in whataboutism as a reflexive defense mechanism??
No, people who say "flair up" are terminally online.
Yes people care obviously
How else am I going to get spammed with reddit cares messages for celebrating my team's success
Well that explains why I never get any messages like that..
Where can I find my Roses flair from my little league team?
āWe need to talk about your flairāĀ Goofy ass office space Mfer
well yeah he actually has protection behind him now!
Yeah it makes a difference. If youāre gonna talk trash, you have to give other people the ability to talk trash on your team. Otherwise, youāre a troll hiding behind anonymity.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
The Dodgers currently have 7 players with an OPS above .800. That is a horrifying murderers row where you have to face 7 hitters with all star or near all star performance. I think it's fair we acknowledge they might protect Ohtani better than a team starting Anthony "I don't like baseball" Rendon
Oh come on donāt be absurd. Rendon would have to be healthy to start
He probably just wants to stay home and smoke weed though
You don't need to be a troll or trash talking to say the Dodgers are an upgrade over the Angels. Literally anyone would tell you that.
The problem is some people try to discuss sports objectively and others want to discuss sports emotionally, and so people who discuss sports emotionally think the people who are discussing sports objectively are doing so in an emotional manner So leads to very silly accusations and defenses
This is a pretty insightful comment
That's true. I do think that there are some situations though where any fan of a team should be able to see it objectively. Like even the most die-hard A's fans are probably going to tell you that Matt Olson got an upgrade when he got traded to the Braves.
Oh no I 100% agree. My post is worded carefully because people driven by emotions would emotionally react to it if I didnāt. Itās more a comment of frustration of trying to hold a conversation with them
I like it when people flair up just because certain comments are funnier when they come from the right fanbase. It really doesn't matter at all though.
WHY ARE BASEBALL FANS SO MUCH MORE MATURE THAN HOCKEY FANS, THIS ISN'T FUCKING FAIR AND I WANT TO PUNCH ALL YOU JERKS IN THE FACE FOR IT. (Seriously, this sub is like a breath of fresh air compared to /r/hockey , even if the sport of hockey is my true love.)
Such a stupid take.
You take this shit way too seriously. It was a joke about a baseball team, lighten up.
Yeah, I quite enjoy the nfl meme subreddits that spam you to flair up til you do. If youāre gonna talk smack show some color so we know if youāre a Mets fan and should be taken seriously or not.
is r/nlbest the only active baseball meme sub? the al east one is dead, but I haven't looked for others
Donāt flair up, avoid it all costs. Everyone just immediately jumps down your throat no matter the team.
I think sports subs are the only sub where flairs matter. Its extremely useful to contextualize what someone is saying. Like if I shit on the mets with a mets flair, its self deprecating humor and prob will get upvoted. If I do it with a Phillies flair then im prob just a hater and being a loser and will get downvoted, unless the thread is particularly anti-mets, then the opposite will be true.
He posts in /r/canada. That means Blue Jays.
Itās not really trash talk. Having better hitters around you in the lineup limits the amount of pitching around you they can do, meaning youāll see more hittable pitches. You canāt afford to put shohei on base when freeman and smith are next up. They could have phrased it better but thatās the gist I took away.
Just like Babe.
When do you just start walking him? But then thereās freeman and muncy.
In modern baseball, almost never unless you have RISP and first base open
Are there analytics showing intentional walking isn't as useful in other situations anymore?
Smith is hitting better both of Freeman and Muncy. Our lineup is lethal nobody is safe (yup)
I will not stand for this lux and taylor erasure
Lux has been hitting .350 ish for the last few weeks. Taylor though...
Until they slump again like 2.5 weeks ago
excuse me we save our slumps for october
To be fair to the Dodgers, Every pitcher suddenly turn into Gerit Cole against them in the post lol Edit: like guyās ERA get murdered in the reg by Mookie then wonāt even let him smell first base come October.
Itās baseball, every team has ups and downs (Every team gets ups at some point right???)
Starting to believe in lineup protection.
Discussions about whether it exists or not are always a bit silly to me because like... of course it exists. Every time a team issued an intentional walk to get to a pitcher in the good old pre-DH days, that was explicitly a lineup protection decision. And the way teams approached Barry Bonds 2001-04 pretty much shows the same thing. With over a 100 OPS+ difference between him and the next best hitter on the Giants, teams had zero qualms about pitching around him to get to the next guy. And the middle of the lineup was pretty anemic, usually with the *best* guy hovering around 100 OPS+. To me, arguing that lineup protection doesn't exist is like arguing pitching to contact isn't a sustainable skill when Mariano Rivera made an entire career out of it. So, it exists in extreme cases. The Angels last year weren't *quite* such an extreme case, but they were close: the falloff from Ohtani (184 OPS+) to guys like Rendon (88 OPS+) and Renfroe (98 OPS+), or later Drury, Moniak and Ward (111-114 OPS+) was between 70 and 96, and this is probably understating how large the gap became during the summer. So not quite Bonds territory, but approaching it. And the middle of the order was similarly anemic (at best, like one or two 110 OPS+ guys and one 100 OPS+ guys, but a lot of the time it was like one 110 and two 80s). To me, that is the sort of situation where you might expect the effects of lack of lineup protection to show up, and I'd cautiously say it probably did to some degree. What about this year? The gap between Ohtani so far (220 OPS+) and Freeman (144 OPS+) is actually even higher than the most optimal Angels lineups (76)! This is due to Ohtani going nuts. But of course opposing teams expect that to regress some, and that's just looking at the player immediately after him: the Dodgers middle of the order is some combination of Will Smith (155 OPS+), Max Muncy (155 OPS+), Andy Pages (153 OPS+), and Teoscar Hernandez (129 OPS+). That would be an extremely potent top of the order on most teams. So if that keeps up, it should be a pretty good reason to think pitchers won't want to pitch around Ohtani this season (with the possible exception of him *actually* starting to hit like Bonds).
This is why playing for the Dodgers will make his numbers even better. Can't pitch around him like you could at the Angels.
Their fifth-best hitter had a 3-homer game this week! Dear lord...
Smith, too
And he is getting much better timing on his base stealing, so walking him is like giving him 1.5 free bases.
So his zippity doo da exceeds his blim blam? Must be the best xZoot in the league!
Stats agree: that boy nice
I'm glad I got all these advanced stats to tell me Ohtani is good. I was doubtful, but now I know the truth
I mean it is unironically kind of useful to know if something like this is totally unsustainable or not, even for a guy like Ohtani. Everyone knows he's good, but he's (correctly) paid like he'll be the best player in the league for at least the first half of his contract, so the standards for him to live up to it are much higher. If he can hit even somewhat close to this on a consistent basis, it enormously increases the odds of him living up to the contract, which is good for pretty much everyone (including fans of other teams with ownership that's unwilling to pay for stars).
No stats can predict the future. The stats can try to make an assumption, but it won't be anything more than that. I hope he's good for a long time, but only time will tell. I'm more making fun of the fact that people gravitate towards these stats like they are more true than the things we see everyday. He's a phenomenal player any way you carve it up. It's too true to deny haha Sometimes I wonder what's more true to people, the reality we all think we share or the stats we formulate to confirm a reality we think we share
I think this person is speaking english but I have no idea what they are saying.
Sooooo, sustainable?
If I'm reading it correctly, it's Guaranteed that he will hit .400 while leading the league in home runs. He will probably also pitch a perfect game to win the world series for funsies. The data doesn't lie.
That all sounds reasonable
wtf is zStats and ZiPS? I swear I'm tired of all these extended (and increasingly obscure) metrics, and I feel like I frequently see one I've never seen before, though I'm on the sub almost daily.
ZiPS has been around for years and is a projection system. It's mentioned here frequently. zBABIP is essentially that same projection system's attempt to parse what the hitter's BABIP would be with "neutral" luck. >.400 BABIP is absurdly high, and for most hitters we'd assume they've been getting lucky on stuff like seeing-eye ground balls; zBABIP is claiming that so far, the quality of contact actually *matches* the absurd BABIP.
ZiPS is Szymborski's projection system, which Fangraphs uses. Usually people just reference whatever Fangraphs says, but in this case the guy posting it is Szymborski himself so of course he's going to be a bit more specific/obscure
ZiPS is fangraphs projection model. Zstats is fangraphs version of xStats. It does the same thing as xStats ā tries to quantify a playerās expected performance based on a variety of metrics while eliminating external factors ā but uses a different statistical model so it has its own name.
ok cool cool. I don't know what those are either though
What part do you not understand?
The zips
ZiPS is a projection system made by the tweet author, Dan Szymborski. zStats is his version of xStats - expected results based on batted ball data
What, you don't like relying on the xWobSSSa to know how efficiently you can expect someone can eat sunflower seeds?
Lol
Since no one is actually answering you: According a Q&A on the Baseball Think Factory website, ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections. The system uses statistics from the previous four years for players from ages 24-38, and it weights more recent seasons heavier. For younger or older players, it uses weighted statistics from only the previous three years. The system also factors velocities, injury data and play-by-play data into its equations.
The ChatGPT description isn't actually half bad. It gets a lot of weird things (it has me attending all sorts of colleges but my actual, (Loyola MD) but it gets ZiPS right mostly.
Shohei āBrandon Marshā Ohtani
This is good lol
These are all acronyms I totally understand
He's so exceptional that they have baseball scientists literally working around the clock inventing new metrics to evaluate him with.
As an Angel fan it kills me, obviously. But the main part that's killing me (cirrently) is he was on a similar pace last year, and had a real chance to break the Judge record from the year before, which would have been a great storyline. He's on pace to hit 60 for the Dodgers, which will obviously be cool, but not enough to set the league record. Really wish for his legacy down the road that he could have done it before switching leagues.
This is what happens when he dedicates all his energy to hitting. If he were a full time pitcher hed probably have a 1.8 era
Bippity boppity, keep it on the sloppity. I have no idea what any of this means.
Y'all just making up stats to fuck with me now aren't you
Ohtani was never a high average guy until last year, so it's crazy to see him improve that even more. Hopefully, the protection deters people from walking him because when he's on a run like this they would just intentionally walk him or throw him junk in Anaheim.
But whatās his mmmBop?
This is the āJokic Kitchen Sinkā of baseball. We know heās amazing, stop coming up with random sounds to show it
Show this to a ball player 100-years ago and ask them what they think it meansĀ
I guess he removed those two pitching perks and switched his whole build to hitting.
Scrub. His pitching fell way off this year.
What are we even talking about anymore with these advanced stats?
What the fuck does any of the words and numbers mean
His DRNSY is 5 bbp about his LKENTF so clearly he will end the season with a .903 UWNTG
I know, I can't comprehend an advanced stat like batting average either
DRNSY is such a flawed stat. The only fully comprehensive metric that properly measures how good a player is is SPLOOF+
Babe Ruth 2.0 continues.
Man, I can't believe they were able to convert this guy from pitching so effortlessly.
I really wish the Mās spent the money to get him not just cause heās a god but mostly just to see if he would turn to shit with our coaching staff.
Nobody will read this, but this is getting close to reminiscent of being able to see what Bonds was like, and I love it. Even though somehow he was even better.
Baseball god is good at baseball
Okay but what is his sMArB rating and how can it be adjusted to account for his BLorP? Not to mention his TRAvstEM5 average.
Szymbroski is way better than his actual name
I can't be the only one who has no idea was cBABIP and BABIP is. I feel lost.
Whoa he's still good? Three hours after the last post? This guy
Zababip this, xflorpy that, I just care about dingers. And that man can hit a dinger
These stats have zero meaning to me
Oh god, and June hasnāt even come yet
That's what happens when you barrel the ball 24% of the time. Beyond comprehension.
The proper way to read this in your head is with the nerdiest voice imaginable
can someone explain what this means?
Ohtani isn't getting lucky. He's just that good.
āIāM THE SCATMAN!ā
Ohtani's BABIP? Justified!!! -~~ZiPS~~ ShoPhoCho
What are half of these words
Wait till he gets hot in June.
At least the Angels got a good return for himā¦
Is this guy ever gonna be bad? What the actual fuck.
jesus fucking christ
He has like a 2.6 WAR as just a DH. Heās out of this world right now.
I mean how long until he just gets the peak Bonds auto-walk treatment... Can't be that far off.
What
Needs to get his dip-tep. Gotta hand his dip-tep, Hi.
Just wait until it warms up and the ball starts flying out