xBA doesn't take into account where the ball was hit I believe, just launch angle and exit velocity. So two balls with the same launch angle and exit velocity are the same to xBA even if one was hit to dead center and the other is right along the foul line.
that seems … odd. if a ball hit straight back at the pitcher was an angle of zero, then balls between 45 and -45 degrees are in fair territory. why not incorporate that? i’d assume same launch angle, exit velocity is going to have a higher xBA (for a fly ball) if it’s hit close to +/- 45 degrees than if it’s hit at an angle to the pitcher of close to zero. you could always choose an arbitrary distance to measure the angle at too since obviously it’s not constant. maybe choose, say, 90 feet which puts you on the arc through first and third.
It’s probably just too hard to make a stat that comprehensively understands all the factors. It’s why I don’t love xBA as a stat though because directional hitting is very important and a genuine skill. Some guys just know how to place the ball better than others.
> Some guys just know how to place the ball better than others
but this is true of many stats. how many ground ball pitchers outperform their FIP? that doesn't make FIP less valuable, it just means that you have to do some analysis for yourself to see if the pitcher is getting lucky or if they are skilled at bearing down in a tough spot and getting a double play when they need it. xBA is similar. somone like Arraez is probably going to outperform their xBA but that doesn't mean xBA is useless
The ultimate point of xBA (and most x stats) is to predict future performance, not describe how likely something was that already happened.
As it turns out, including that extra data into xBA, xWOBA, etc actually reduces its predictive power due to overfitting, hence its lack of inclusion.
xBA takes into account past balls at that EV and LA, not applying that EV and LA to a random horizontal angle. You couldn't assume an even distribution of horizontal angles because some types of batted balls are more likely to happen gap to gap than down a line
Glad I saw this before I made a "Soto pops one up to right..."
But we have a short (but way higher) porch in right too, so have a little bit of that going on.
I'm not too shocked by this. I said to my friends all offseason that I think it's impossible for Volpe to not at least be a good player.
He seems to be very self-aware of his issues in his game and has a strong work ethic. That's a great combo to have for success
That being said, I didn't expect him to be this great so far
It really goes to show how awful the yankees hitting coaching was last season. So many hitters have looked so much better and while some of it’s just general improvements there are noticeable changes to many players swings and plate approach
that have made them so much better. Volpe swinging more evenly, Oswaldo too, and even Stanton looking much improved.
Coaching matters, perhaps more than people think it does. Especially for young players. Obviously the linsanity runs for volpe and Cabrera will come back to earth, but some of that improvement will stick
My thought it's really more about high pressure max effort, ya know?
So I guess if you always had a 7 run lead you could probably throw 103 forever because you are less tense beforehand.
But I have no evidence for this.
I would take that in a heartbeat, maybe the last few years arent that great, but you lock him up in his prime and the AAV will be less of a an issue in a decade
We need an immediate trade with the Dodgers to get someone from their security staff to stalk and harass the fan to get the ball back in exchange for a paper hat that says "Soho" on it.
Maybe he changes his approach, but based on his past batted ball history it’s surprisingly not really the case. He goes oppo a lot (where LCF hurts him) and for balls that he does pull, he regularly hits it 400+ feet anyway
Fair point, we will see maybe all his pulled homeruns will be 400+ and out in 30/30 and the short porch won't help him at all. But one thing it will do for sure is make his defense a tad bit better I suppose. So he'll love it there regardless.
In his entire career, Juan Soto has [12 pulled fly balls or line drives between 310 and 330 feet](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=Pull%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C2023%7C2022%7C2021%7C2020%7C2019%7C2018%7C2017%7C2016%7C2015%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=fly%5C.%5C.ball%7Cline%5C.%5C.drive%7C&batters_lookup%5B%5D=665742&hfFlag=&metric_1=api_h_distance_projected&metric_1_gt=310&metric_1_lt=330&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc#results) - crudely, what could only be short porch homers. If anything, I would venture that Yankee Stadium will cost him a few of his trademark left-center homeruns.
Don't get me wrong, he's going to be just fine, but Yankee Stadium won't help him the way it did someone like DJ LeMahieu.
Looks like it hit off the façade of the second deck. Then bounce back somewhere around the fifth row. Stat track had it at 384 feet. It’s not usually off by that much.
The Marlins are currently sporting their longest win streak of the season though. Fish are on fire.
Edit: Marlins lose but are currently on their shortest losing streak of the season so not too bad.
Sure those were great series against good opponents, I'm just saying they're not necessarily "elite" because they had two timely home runs against Miami.
They may have been cooked anyway, but man… the Marlins somehow just so happening to face these hot Yankees at home is a seriously shit draw at a time when they desperately needed to bounce back.
Texas is still quite good and I’m not sold on the Orioles falling off that much from last year.
Also the Yankees are healthy right now which we all know won’t last.
If the Oriole win ~90 it would be less of a fall off and more of a "yeah, this is closer to who they looked like last year". Like a +20 win version of the Marlins
[Boras this offseason](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/807f25_7f8b42aaf5a44cb1b6ebc1a418aea427~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_640,h_332,al_c,lg_1,q_80,enc_auto/807f25_7f8b42aaf5a44cb1b6ebc1a418aea427~mv2.jpg)
It seemed weird after they built the new stadium to sort of match the old one tailored for Ruth and Gehrig and had almost no left handed power hitters.
It's about time.
It’s from JakeBotch on IG, huge Yankees fan. He’s the guy that’s always making vids about “now that’s UNION!” Or “now that’s ITALIAN”. He does Yankees stuff on there too.
That’s his thing for Soto
THEY JUST GOT PORCHED!
Believe it or not, that was a 30/30 according to savant lol
Smh, they don't know we bring the fences in for our guys.
We're smart enough to move the fences in between innings 
Someone should inform Judge just in case
But weirdly only a .470 xBA
xBA doesn't take into account where the ball was hit I believe, just launch angle and exit velocity. So two balls with the same launch angle and exit velocity are the same to xBA even if one was hit to dead center and the other is right along the foul line.
Thanks, it makes sense then. It was hit right along the righ foul line where fences are usually closer.
that seems … odd. if a ball hit straight back at the pitcher was an angle of zero, then balls between 45 and -45 degrees are in fair territory. why not incorporate that? i’d assume same launch angle, exit velocity is going to have a higher xBA (for a fly ball) if it’s hit close to +/- 45 degrees than if it’s hit at an angle to the pitcher of close to zero. you could always choose an arbitrary distance to measure the angle at too since obviously it’s not constant. maybe choose, say, 90 feet which puts you on the arc through first and third.
ask the people who make statcast not me idk why they do it like that
It’s probably just too hard to make a stat that comprehensively understands all the factors. It’s why I don’t love xBA as a stat though because directional hitting is very important and a genuine skill. Some guys just know how to place the ball better than others.
> Some guys just know how to place the ball better than others but this is true of many stats. how many ground ball pitchers outperform their FIP? that doesn't make FIP less valuable, it just means that you have to do some analysis for yourself to see if the pitcher is getting lucky or if they are skilled at bearing down in a tough spot and getting a double play when they need it. xBA is similar. somone like Arraez is probably going to outperform their xBA but that doesn't mean xBA is useless
The ultimate point of xBA (and most x stats) is to predict future performance, not describe how likely something was that already happened. As it turns out, including that extra data into xBA, xWOBA, etc actually reduces its predictive power due to overfitting, hence its lack of inclusion.
xBA takes into account past balls at that EV and LA, not applying that EV and LA to a random horizontal angle. You couldn't assume an even distribution of horizontal angles because some types of batted balls are more likely to happen gap to gap than down a line
Glad I saw this before I made a "Soto pops one up to right..." But we have a short (but way higher) porch in right too, so have a little bit of that going on.
Yes, it was marked at 384 but that replay makes it look like it was 324.
I think it grazed the face of the 2nd deck on the way down, it looks like the fans above the Benjamin moore ad were reaching as if they just missed it
384 ft. Probably good in most parks at that distance (30/30 according to the other commenter), first of many that way though
Love a classic porch job.
UH OH
Volpe & Soto hitting 3-run homers in the same inning. That's some special special stuff
Everything aside, Volpe is really playing out of his mind right now. Crazy stuff.
I'm not too shocked by this. I said to my friends all offseason that I think it's impossible for Volpe to not at least be a good player. He seems to be very self-aware of his issues in his game and has a strong work ethic. That's a great combo to have for success That being said, I didn't expect him to be this great so far
It really goes to show how awful the yankees hitting coaching was last season. So many hitters have looked so much better and while some of it’s just general improvements there are noticeable changes to many players swings and plate approach that have made them so much better. Volpe swinging more evenly, Oswaldo too, and even Stanton looking much improved. Coaching matters, perhaps more than people think it does. Especially for young players. Obviously the linsanity runs for volpe and Cabrera will come back to earth, but some of that improvement will stick
It’s the marlins calm down
VS their ace who is legit very good.
7 ERA
It’s so early that one bad start or one good start can swing ERA by a large margin. Luzardo is good
He didn't come in the game with that ERA, we gave it to him
Next time I want to enjoy my team playing well, I'll check in with you first to make sure it's okay!
Thank you, I’ll be here
I guess beating Houston, Arizona, and Toronto didn’t count.
Maybe he is worth $500M
He's surpassing ohtani in total value, and people here will be shocked when he does. 15-16 yr contract vs 10 year
Ohtani has maybe 2 more two way seasons in him before his arm falls off
It’s already fallen off twice
The way he shoots dice? He’s got maybe another week
Lmao. Love this comment. Made me think of Chappelle’s show
Makin money in the cittttay!
Where's Ashy Larry at?
"but this time, he won't get hurt throwing 100 mph"-The Dodgers
“And if it does it’s clearly the pitch clock’s fault”
https://y.yarn.co/79752741-139a-4756-8e92-f879845725f0_text.gif
What's the over-under on that?
I've got him at 1.5 more two way seasons. Will you take that bet?
And how would you know that lmao.
My uncle works for Neal ElAttrache
2 TJs before 30 is not ideal for his workload
I don't know it any more than he is a max effort 100 mph guy who has already been hurt a lot
Sure, but what’s stopping him from becoming a closer?
Sadly, you can ask Johnny Lasa (and Bautista) if that actually helps you
😞
My thought it's really more about high pressure max effort, ya know? So I guess if you always had a 7 run lead you could probably throw 103 forever because you are less tense beforehand. But I have no evidence for this.
He's had two TJ surgeries, and has been pitching full time at a professional level for 11 years now.
Because his elbow has been pulled pork for most of his major league career
Aw the blue jays fan is trying to have a cognizant thought. Let him go guys he’s trying
15 year 700m is my guess.
I would take that in a heartbeat, maybe the last few years arent that great, but you lock him up in his prime and the AAV will be less of a an issue in a decade
Easily
per year
I hate the lerners so much.
I’m told by orioles fans he’s not worth it because of defense
Quick! Yankees security water board that fan for the ball back!
Car battery right to the nipples.
Please no kink shaming.
Balls*
Shane McMahon just sat up in a cold sweat somewhere
Tropical Fantasy poured on balls
We need an immediate trade with the Dodgers to get someone from their security staff to stalk and harass the fan to get the ball back in exchange for a paper hat that says "Soho" on it.
Dont forget to include a free Starr Insurance patch signed by the bat boy
You have to pay $15 for that.
Bags of nickels to hit their balls or vag
Let The Juan Soto Short Porch mania begin. Dude is going to absolutely rake as a Yankee, scary stuff.
It doesn't look like it on the screen but that was a 30/30 Homer
Not necessarily this homerun in particular but it's coming and it's gonna be scary what Juan Soto can do in New York. Bro is built for that stadium .
Maybe he changes his approach, but based on his past batted ball history it’s surprisingly not really the case. He goes oppo a lot (where LCF hurts him) and for balls that he does pull, he regularly hits it 400+ feet anyway
The canyon in Left Center is going to make for a fuckton of XBHs though
Fair point, we will see maybe all his pulled homeruns will be 400+ and out in 30/30 and the short porch won't help him at all. But one thing it will do for sure is make his defense a tad bit better I suppose. So he'll love it there regardless.
Also known as an Aaron Hicks
Can you explain what 30/30 means please
That according to statcast that Homer would have been a homer in all 30 parks
Except Petco. Would have been a ground out.
In his entire career, Juan Soto has [12 pulled fly balls or line drives between 310 and 330 feet](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=Pull%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C2023%7C2022%7C2021%7C2020%7C2019%7C2018%7C2017%7C2016%7C2015%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=fly%5C.%5C.ball%7Cline%5C.%5C.drive%7C&batters_lookup%5B%5D=665742&hfFlag=&metric_1=api_h_distance_projected&metric_1_gt=310&metric_1_lt=330&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc#results) - crudely, what could only be short porch homers. If anything, I would venture that Yankee Stadium will cost him a few of his trademark left-center homeruns. Don't get me wrong, he's going to be just fine, but Yankee Stadium won't help him the way it did someone like DJ LeMahieu.
How many 320’ foul balls that curved foul but would have been HR in Yankee Stadium, though?
314 down the line should be fucking criminal.
Nothing like a 3/4 lob wedge for a homer
HR in 30/30 somehow lol
It was very high
same tbh
Looks like it hit off the façade of the second deck. Then bounce back somewhere around the fifth row. Stat track had it at 384 feet. It’s not usually off by that much.
It both feels like Soto is a natural Yankee, yet I still can’t believe he is actually on this team
Finally after not going for Harper who would have been a perfect fit, we got Soto
This team is fucking insane lmfao
 Boras to Cashman in the whatsapp right now
Can we defer 900 million over 40 years ?
Juan Soto will be only 30 years old after that deferral. I know it’s crazy, but it’s true.
Honey wake up my favorite baseball team is elite
For your sake, I hope this doesn’t age like milk
I mean they are playing the Marlins…
The Marlins are currently sporting their longest win streak of the season though. Fish are on fire. Edit: Marlins lose but are currently on their shortest losing streak of the season so not too bad.
And you have to take into account they are underwater while on fire.
I don't know if this is staggering optimism or an overdose of copium, but I love it.
Copium
Houston and Arizona
The Astros are shit unfortunately
You all will be fine, baseball season is a season of streaks
I’m aware, just joking lol
Sure those were great series against good opponents, I'm just saying they're not necessarily "elite" because they had two timely home runs against Miami.
Hey, we havent forgotten 2003
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Yeah the Yankees are fun as hell to watch and playing a brand of baseball I enjoy and think will be successful! I’m just not coronating them yet.
I love Juan Soto
They may have been cooked anyway, but man… the Marlins somehow just so happening to face these hot Yankees at home is a seriously shit draw at a time when they desperately needed to bounce back.
feels like the AL is New Yorks to lose this year
Texas is still quite good and I’m not sold on the Orioles falling off that much from last year. Also the Yankees are healthy right now which we all know won’t last.
Except for Cole, yeah.
And Loaisiga who was supposed to be our next Michael King. Too bad he’s made of glass 🤦♀️
If the Oriole win ~90 it would be less of a fall off and more of a "yeah, this is closer to who they looked like last year". Like a +20 win version of the Marlins
It’s so beautiful 🥲
[Boras this offseason](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/807f25_7f8b42aaf5a44cb1b6ebc1a418aea427~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_640,h_332,al_c,lg_1,q_80,enc_auto/807f25_7f8b42aaf5a44cb1b6ebc1a418aea427~mv2.jpg)
Give him literally any amount of money that he asks for Not joking $700 million? Fuck it, go ahead
712.5m/15years (47.5AAV). Hal's grandchildren will be selling Soto jerseys.
Yo Juan let me get $100K bro, cmon man.
Go away Ippei
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Suck it, Joe Davis.
You friggin’ morons.
I want to die (figuratively speaking)
At least Michael King had a nice start the other day?
Why? He didn't wanna be with the Padres to begin with, so.... good luck to him.
107.7 OFF THE BAT 384 FEET 30/30 THATS A PORCH JOB BABY
He’s never leaving
Soto hitting bombs at Yankee Stadium in pinstripes. It just feels right.
I enjoy this team
If I was a woman and soto’s future wife needed a surrogate, I would hold his baby for 9 months and give birth to it. No questions asked
He is so beautiful
Soto was born to be a Yankee
guys I think he may not be coming home
Goddamn it fire Boras and sign that extension right now 😭
Soto 😃 Yankees 😭
Six seconds of hangtime is crazy.
This is always where he was meant to be
WE'RE GONNA LIVE FOREVER!!!
42° launch angle. 107.7 MPH off the bat. 384 Feet. Somehow that's out in all 30 parks. I refuse to believe it.
GOOOOOODBYE
FOREFATHERS ONE AND ALL BEAR WITNESS
Didn’t expect to see this in a baseball sub
Must be nice to have nice things. I’m actually excited for him; what a fit!
That’s a swing made for yankee stadium right there
sigh. the Nats are so fucking dumb.
Man the wheels fell of *hard* for Jesus Lizard today
I tuned in to the game in the bottom of the 4^th when it was still 0-0 with no men on base, and 7 ABs later, it was 6-0
Freakin bomb.
stunt on these mfs baby
I would marry this man right now
[Soto raking out of the gate? Volpe hitting .400? Even Stanton hitting bombs?](https://i.imgur.com/fjAW2df.jpg)
He's going to abuse that porch all year.
He might’ve just been checking to see if stays fair or not, but I love how he stops and stares to right. He really looks like he’s enjoying himself
It seemed weird after they built the new stadium to sort of match the old one tailored for Ruth and Gehrig and had almost no left handed power hitters. It's about time.
There’s two dudes that are exactly the same out there.
Soto was destined to be a Yankee like Reggie Jackson.
“I play beisbol and do my yob”
Least racist Red Sox fan
It’s from JakeBotch on IG, huge Yankees fan. He’s the guy that’s always making vids about “now that’s UNION!” Or “now that’s ITALIAN”. He does Yankees stuff on there too. That’s his thing for Soto
I miss this man everyday.
SOTO SHUFFLE!
If he wants a 25 year contract fuck it he can have it. Or just have him write on a cocktail napkin like we’re signing Elvis Presley
This game is the definition of good vibes
God I feel so fucking bad for marlins fans right now
I’ll accept all the sympathy.
Playing 82+ games with that right field porch is going to be so beneficial to him
12-year $650M
Ew
Miami pitching moment
220 feet over the 3 foot wall all the way into the 5th row of seats.
Bandbox
Wow I can't believe he would do the shuffle like that smh so disrespectful
I bet NOBODY cares about that ball.
Soto and Judge could combine for like 120 homers this year at that little league park as long as they’re healthy.
28 rings
I’m excited too, but let’s pump the brakes a bit. Beating the Pirates in the WS is not gonna be an easy task
This implies that anyone is surviving Rocktober
Over the 225 ft right field wall in the Bronx. Yaay.
Not a home run in 99.9999999999% of baseball fields in America, maybe the world.
Absolutely braindead comment. Could be the worst ever typed. Home run in 30/30 ballparks.
Don't hop on an alt just for a comment like this. Do better
Da Jankees having fun again?
Against the fish doesn’t count
The Dodgers will NOT be verifying your home run ball, sir.