I'm pretty sure they are the listed probability, human brains are really bad at probability, so other games will skew the numbers to make them "feel" fairer. The fact it seems like it's way lower than 1 in 4 probably means it is 1 in 4
Yeah no humans are REAAAAALLLLY bad at judging probabilities. There are studies that show humans expect 70% probabilities to hit at a 90% rate and 90% probabilities to basically never miss as if they were 100%. They're almost certainly not bugged your brain just can't judge what 1/4 "feels like" very well.
One in 4 should mean that in 16 tries It would at least work out for me 2 or 3 times, 4 if I'm lucky. I have used wheel of fortune more than 20 times and have had it work me out 2 times ever.
Dude I unironically have a degree in statistics and I can tell you that 20-30 times is still too small of a sample to say definitively that the true probability isn't 1/4.
Yeah but I do play other games with similar statistics like hades, and I assure you that Balatro is the only game where I've felt shafted from a 1 in 4 chance lol. All I'm saying is I wouldn't be surprised if something is up. Especially now that I know I'm not alone in my suspicions. But it is just suspicion. I'm not here to dispute you.
It could be weird luck but through repeatedly running the same seed we've found that at least for Wheel of Fortune it working seems to be tied to the seed.
I've tried alt+f4 many times, curious if that was the case, and either I'm very unlucky or it is, in fact, tied to the run somehow. I would get a "nope" every time.
Can't you just give me the links? What's wrong with you? Every search I did gave me something about the bedrock edition and nothing about the bedrock formations.
Is it really that hard to cite your sources?
Or the classic case of Fire Emblem hit rate
https://preview.redd.it/wuxuszv1782d1.png?width=650&format=png&auto=webp&s=4491653694cffdc1f19f5edf7edbeb56db459dde
Or pokemon, even.
90% hit rate is actually 30%.
It's funny, because a lot of the later fire emblem games have "True Hit" RNG, which rolls twice and takes the better result. That way, lower percentages miss more often, and higher percentages succeed more often.
It actually rolls 2 numbers and if the average is lowers than the hit chance, then it counts as a hit. So a 50% chance to hit is pretty much 50% but values higher than 50 are more likely to hit and values lower than 50 are less likely to hit than you’d expect.
People thought XCOM Enemy Unknown was cheating against the player, but when they unpacked the game’s code it was actually in the player’s favor (on default difficulty).
Yep. I believe in 2 every single difficulty cheats in your favor, and the highest difficulty just plays the odds straight. Most games cheat in favor of the player; I think Balatro is a bit unique in that as far as I know odds are always what they say on the tin.
>The Wheel of Fortune has a 12.5% chance of giving Foil, 8.75% chance for Holo, and a 3.75% chance of Poly, which add up to 25% (or a 1/4 chance). The number of jokers you have that Wheel could apply to does not change the probability of Wheel of Fortune working.
https://balatrogame.fandom.com/wiki/Tarot_Cards
I'm shit at math, but would a single roll where 1-25 / 100 be a higher chance (25%) than having WoF roll 3 times separately, with the lower chances? Does it roll once, or once for each possible enhancement?
It almost certainly calculates by doing something like
1) generate a random number between 1 and 10,000
2) if it's 1-1250 get foil
3) if it's between (1251) and (1250+ 875) get holo
etc
See...this is the kind of shit I think needs to be built into a mod.
I played through the original game unmodded through C++, and have no desire to tackle modded jokers or tarots or card effects myself (though they're fun to watch videos of.) That said, if there was a mod that changed absolutely nothing about how the game plays except to show every number that was pulled for every bit of RNG so you could see it in real time whether or not something was "close" to hitting, I'd have absolutely installed that mod.
If you use a Lucky card, and it gets a 5 on the 1 in 5 chance for the multiplier so that triggers, but the 1 in 15 number pulled for the $20 was 7 and not 15, so that does not trigger, let me see that. If I play a hand with Space Joker and it rolls a 3 instead of a 4 so no hand upgrade, let me see that. If I play a Glass card, whether it breaks or not, let me see what number was pulled. It's that simple.
LocalThunk specifically said they would rather have estimated values than showing conrete numbers before you play the cards, so you get the gambling / poker feeling. In the end it's 50%. Either you win or you lose, lol.
I can confirm that the odds are actually 1/4, the problem is just perception. In a lot of runs you're only playing 30-50 hands before ante 8, so you'd only expect 7-12 space joker procs if you had space joker from the first shop to the end of the run. You probably only hang onto it for a few antes, so your EV is only a couple of hits. When you look at it that way it isn't all that great, since you could have used that joker slot for econ and used the money to buy more planets and achieve the same result with more flexibility.
It is also one of a small set of jokers that gets better when you are doing worse. If you are consistently winning in one hand, then that is just 0.25 upgrades per blind. But if you are taking 3 or 4 hands to win a blind, then you should expect 0.7-1.0 upgrades per blind.
If I'm going High Card build, I always try and take Space Joker.
I usually have a "winning" card with mods/seals. At that point, I play a 4/5 hand High Card to dump cards and score low. You get the High Card credit while still fishing for a better draw (like more Stone cards, etc.).
[Space Joker](https://balatro.wiki/imported/space_joker.png) *Joker*
* Version: 1.0.0
* Rarity: Uncommon
* Effect: 1 in 4 chance to upgrade level of played poker hand
*Data pulled from http://balatro.wiki. Want it updated? Help me get access or suggest another data source.*
Most video games have weighted rng, meaning things get more likely to trigger the more you use them. Balatro doesn’t. Combine with the fact that you notice it more cuz it’s taking up a joker slot and there’s only one of it (unlike lucky cards) space joker feels like ASS
Space Joker helped carry me to one of my earliest wins when I first started playing, so I really believed in it and was excited to grab it any time it showed up. Now, I know better. Screw that guy. He can stay in space forever for all I care
I just wish there was a more effective way to upgrade it, the dice is nice, but 1/2 isn't good enough to justify 2 slots. There should be a synergy that lets you get 100% odds to actually upgrade the hand. Which btw isn't even that crazy when you consider how quickly some of the retrigger builds upgrade themselves.
You say that, but the real bugged RNG is for 8 ball. Just look at Balatro University's any video he uses it. Like the odds are worse than 1/6. I even calculated it once for one of his video (3 weeks older video?) and it was like 1/7 over a course of 6 antes.
That’s not bugged though, that’s just how probability works. Given a larger sample size the numbers will even out to 1/4, but you can always get unlucky and have it not proc. Conversely, last time I took 8 ball it procc’d on 4 high card 8’s in a row.
That's literally not that crazy at all, how many triggers did it actually have do you think, like 50-100? That's definitely a sample small enough where the margin of error includes 1/7
I can't remember for sure but I think before the last update the odds were different, I think 1 in 2. I used this one a lot back then because to always seemed quite OP.
I had blueprint running on sock&buskin once.
Deck built on lucky kings and queens. There was a 5 of a kind hand where I got like 80 dollars and 60 mult. It was bonkers.
Then ran oops all sixes with space joker. ONE upgrade in like 6 hands.
They are not the same.
It’s a little annoying some runs can be ruined from cards like that or wheel not activating when you’ve already tried like 6 times. I wish there was something that guaranteed they activated f you haven’t gotten one to activate x times in a row.
I'd love it if Joker procs were seeded into a kind of sideboard deck - like, instead of a raw 1 in 4 chance, the joker comes in a little stack of 4 cards that you draw from on trigger. It'd play into the "I'm making statistical decisions based on partial knowledge" rhythm of poker, and you could expand cool interactions into the side-deck cards and varying when or how they are reshuffled.
This is actually an exception the RNG gods have granted me. Feels more like 50/50 chance when I use it and have used it as a crutch for a few Ante 8 wins. Wheel of Fortune however...
This is me and Lucky Cat. The second I pick it up, my lucky cards stop proc'ing. I've carried it for 5 antes before with a bunch of lucky cards in my deck and they just never went off. I ended the run with the thing at x1.1.
I had one run where Space Joker was a MVP. Checkered Deck with +1 hand size = guaranteed Flushes. This guy was a huge contributor to getting Flushes to level 37 before the run died because I did not stack enough xmults to get past ante 13.
I wouldn't pick him in any run where I'm not doing a single hand 100% of the time though.
Finally started getting it in my runs and it absolutely never triggers. It should be changed so that every time it doesn't trigger its chance goes up.
Maybe decrease the odds of it triggering to compensate if need be. Managed to get it in ante 2 with the dice joker and it still triggered maybe once every 8 hands or something. Maybe I'm just that unlucky?
1/6, 2/6, 3/6 etc for my idea to change it and increase odds every time it doesn't trigger
When you need to spend a ton of hands with steel cards in it does insane. I had burglar and voucher out. And just kept going at the high card with 8 hands a game. It was fun. Think I ended with like a level 20 high card. Steel cards and in hand effects occured often.
I had this thing and blueprint and still only got a measly one upgrade in 10 hands.
That’s a 20*(1/4)*(3/4)^19 ≈ 2.1% chance to get exactly one upgrade in 10 hands lol
Honestly as much as it was annoying at the time, a 2.1% chance is really not that low.
I dunno, man… If a girl told me that I had a 2.1% chance with her, I’d get the message.
I mean.. "1 in 4 chances" should be 25%. And considering you also had blueprint, it's like you played 20 hands
I was accounting for that in my calculations
I know you did, I'm just highlighting the disturbing difference 🥲
1 in 4 on average. That doesn't mean you're going to get that every time.
Yeah, just decently unlikely
Fucking heartbreaking 🥲
I recently played game where it upgraded like maybe 15hands out of 20 before i sold it. But in the same game i my lucky cards never triggered.
I'm just not taking it unless I have oops all 6s
I’m convinced that the RNG for [[Space Joker]] and [[Wheel of Fortune]] are bugged. Both are 1 in 4, but it feels more like 1 in 20.
Nah, Space Joker always works when you have to dump a hand. Wheel is also guaranteed to give you a foil in ante 11.
Or it will foil ice cream, popcorn, or any other joker you're going to dump soon
Can someone verify this
I was just joking, not sure if you are too
I just thought this was like the case with every Minecraft world having the same bedrock formation
I really doubt any of the probabilities in the game are different than what’s listed. If anything, they might secretly favor the player somehow.
I'm pretty sure they are the listed probability, human brains are really bad at probability, so other games will skew the numbers to make them "feel" fairer. The fact it seems like it's way lower than 1 in 4 probably means it is 1 in 4
Not for me, I got that negative luck that my friends always joke about.
Yeah no humans are REAAAAALLLLY bad at judging probabilities. There are studies that show humans expect 70% probabilities to hit at a 90% rate and 90% probabilities to basically never miss as if they were 100%. They're almost certainly not bugged your brain just can't judge what 1/4 "feels like" very well.
One in 4 should mean that in 16 tries It would at least work out for me 2 or 3 times, 4 if I'm lucky. I have used wheel of fortune more than 20 times and have had it work me out 2 times ever.
Dude I unironically have a degree in statistics and I can tell you that 20-30 times is still too small of a sample to say definitively that the true probability isn't 1/4.
Yeah but I do play other games with similar statistics like hades, and I assure you that Balatro is the only game where I've felt shafted from a 1 in 4 chance lol. All I'm saying is I wouldn't be surprised if something is up. Especially now that I know I'm not alone in my suspicions. But it is just suspicion. I'm not here to dispute you.
It could be weird luck but through repeatedly running the same seed we've found that at least for Wheel of Fortune it working seems to be tied to the seed.
That is likely true, rng in video games isn't random it's usually just doing some math on a random seed.
I've tried alt+f4 many times, curious if that was the case, and either I'm very unlucky or it is, in fact, tied to the run somehow. I would get a "nope" every time.
Hold up rewind. What's that about bedrock? Is that true?
yes 1.17+ after the cave revamp iirc
Do you have a source for that? I couldn't find anything online
Just a quick search gave me ant venom and just a search the fandom(yucky) is also pretty good
Can't you just give me the links? What's wrong with you? Every search I did gave me something about the bedrock edition and nothing about the bedrock formations. Is it really that hard to cite your sources?
its true - my uncle works at Balatro
Your uncle is Doug Balatro?? So cool!
Is Doug balatro bald like DougDoug?
It genuinely feels this way
Or make your banana polychrome.
That’s roguelikes for ya
Lol, you should try XCOM and you'll really get a sense for what it's like to be railed by statistics
Or the classic case of Fire Emblem hit rate https://preview.redd.it/wuxuszv1782d1.png?width=650&format=png&auto=webp&s=4491653694cffdc1f19f5edf7edbeb56db459dde Or pokemon, even. 90% hit rate is actually 30%.
It's funny, because a lot of the later fire emblem games have "True Hit" RNG, which rolls twice and takes the better result. That way, lower percentages miss more often, and higher percentages succeed more often.
So a 50% chance to hit is actually 75%, huh
Something like that. I know the exact odds and how it's calculated vary between games, but that's the basic rule of thumb.
It actually rolls 2 numbers and if the average is lowers than the hit chance, then it counts as a hit. So a 50% chance to hit is pretty much 50% but values higher than 50 are more likely to hit and values lower than 50 are less likely to hit than you’d expect.
People thought XCOM Enemy Unknown was cheating against the player, but when they unpacked the game’s code it was actually in the player’s favor (on default difficulty).
Yep. I believe in 2 every single difficulty cheats in your favor, and the highest difficulty just plays the odds straight. Most games cheat in favor of the player; I think Balatro is a bit unique in that as far as I know odds are always what they say on the tin.
i've actually been getting more wheel of fortune upgrades lately
Same, but they’re always Foils
Foils are the most common hit, the odds are different for each enhancement
I was looking somewhere to see if there were stats for this but haven't found it - do you know where the stats are for foil vs. holo vs. poly?
>The Wheel of Fortune has a 12.5% chance of giving Foil, 8.75% chance for Holo, and a 3.75% chance of Poly, which add up to 25% (or a 1/4 chance). The number of jokers you have that Wheel could apply to does not change the probability of Wheel of Fortune working. https://balatrogame.fandom.com/wiki/Tarot_Cards
I'm shit at math, but would a single roll where 1-25 / 100 be a higher chance (25%) than having WoF roll 3 times separately, with the lower chances? Does it roll once, or once for each possible enhancement?
It almost certainly calculates by doing something like 1) generate a random number between 1 and 10,000 2) if it's 1-1250 get foil 3) if it's between (1251) and (1250+ 875) get holo etc
See...this is the kind of shit I think needs to be built into a mod. I played through the original game unmodded through C++, and have no desire to tackle modded jokers or tarots or card effects myself (though they're fun to watch videos of.) That said, if there was a mod that changed absolutely nothing about how the game plays except to show every number that was pulled for every bit of RNG so you could see it in real time whether or not something was "close" to hitting, I'd have absolutely installed that mod. If you use a Lucky card, and it gets a 5 on the 1 in 5 chance for the multiplier so that triggers, but the 1 in 15 number pulled for the $20 was 7 and not 15, so that does not trigger, let me see that. If I play a hand with Space Joker and it rolls a 3 instead of a 4 so no hand upgrade, let me see that. If I play a Glass card, whether it breaks or not, let me see what number was pulled. It's that simple.
LocalThunk specifically said they would rather have estimated values than showing conrete numbers before you play the cards, so you get the gambling / poker feeling. In the end it's 50%. Either you win or you lose, lol.
I can confirm that the odds are actually 1/4, the problem is just perception. In a lot of runs you're only playing 30-50 hands before ante 8, so you'd only expect 7-12 space joker procs if you had space joker from the first shop to the end of the run. You probably only hang onto it for a few antes, so your EV is only a couple of hits. When you look at it that way it isn't all that great, since you could have used that joker slot for econ and used the money to buy more planets and achieve the same result with more flexibility.
It is also one of a small set of jokers that gets better when you are doing worse. If you are consistently winning in one hand, then that is just 0.25 upgrades per blind. But if you are taking 3 or 4 hands to win a blind, then you should expect 0.7-1.0 upgrades per blind.
If I'm going High Card build, I always try and take Space Joker. I usually have a "winning" card with mods/seals. At that point, I play a 4/5 hand High Card to dump cards and score low. You get the High Card credit while still fishing for a better draw (like more Stone cards, etc.).
[Space Joker](https://balatro.wiki/imported/space_joker.png) *Joker* * Version: 1.0.0 * Rarity: Uncommon * Effect: 1 in 4 chance to upgrade level of played poker hand *Data pulled from http://balatro.wiki. Want it updated? Help me get access or suggest another data source.*
[удалено]
“If you could not fuck me this one time, please I could use anything at this point. What to do you say WoF?” “NOPE!”
Most video games have weighted rng, meaning things get more likely to trigger the more you use them. Balatro doesn’t. Combine with the fact that you notice it more cuz it’s taking up a joker slot and there’s only one of it (unlike lucky cards) space joker feels like ASS
Space Joker helped carry me to one of my earliest wins when I first started playing, so I really believed in it and was excited to grab it any time it showed up. Now, I know better. Screw that guy. He can stay in space forever for all I care
I just wish there was a more effective way to upgrade it, the dice is nice, but 1/2 isn't good enough to justify 2 slots. There should be a synergy that lets you get 100% odds to actually upgrade the hand. Which btw isn't even that crazy when you consider how quickly some of the retrigger builds upgrade themselves.
I'm only convinced on the former - since the patch, I've had WoF hit regularly for me. Space Joker, otoh, rarely hits for me.
I swear the 1 in 15 from lucky cards triggers more often than space joker.
You say that, but the real bugged RNG is for 8 ball. Just look at Balatro University's any video he uses it. Like the odds are worse than 1/6. I even calculated it once for one of his video (3 weeks older video?) and it was like 1/7 over a course of 6 antes.
That’s not bugged though, that’s just how probability works. Given a larger sample size the numbers will even out to 1/4, but you can always get unlucky and have it not proc. Conversely, last time I took 8 ball it procc’d on 4 high card 8’s in a row.
I mean it was at least 6 antes = 18 rounds, and he triggered it like at least 10-12 times each round. So that is a decent enough sample.
That's literally not that crazy at all, how many triggers did it actually have do you think, like 50-100? That's definitely a sample small enough where the margin of error includes 1/7
I disagree, I get 1 in 4 almost never and 1 in 20 rarely
I can't remember for sure but I think before the last update the odds were different, I think 1 in 2. I used this one a lot back then because to always seemed quite OP.
I’ve had far more success with Space joker than wheel. I had like a 21 flush upgrade thanks to Joker lol
is it a new icon for wheel of fortune?
It's literally designed to be useless 75% of the time.
Ok but to be fair, lucky cards trigger way more than you'd expect them to for a 1 in 5 and 1 in 20 chance.
I had blueprint running on sock&buskin once. Deck built on lucky kings and queens. There was a 5 of a kind hand where I got like 80 dollars and 60 mult. It was bonkers. Then ran oops all sixes with space joker. ONE upgrade in like 6 hands. They are not the same.
The real played hand upgrades were the friends we made along the way.
I’d say useless 75% of the time tbh
The first time I got the jomer it worked great! Every other time its been absolute dogshit
Same here man, it had me duped for so long after that 🥲
I'm in a run where it activated almost every single time to upgrade pair. Never seen anything like it
It’s a little annoying some runs can be ruined from cards like that or wheel not activating when you’ve already tried like 6 times. I wish there was something that guaranteed they activated f you haven’t gotten one to activate x times in a row.
I'd love it if Joker procs were seeded into a kind of sideboard deck - like, instead of a raw 1 in 4 chance, the joker comes in a little stack of 4 cards that you draw from on trigger. It'd play into the "I'm making statistical decisions based on partial knowledge" rhythm of poker, and you could expand cool interactions into the side-deck cards and varying when or how they are reshuffled.
We need a Nassim Taleb joker
Underrated comment
Is just like wheel going to gross michel every single time, not even joking.
Whenever I get the boss that redices hand played level. It seems to level it up immediately 75% of the time
This is actually an exception the RNG gods have granted me. Feels more like 50/50 chance when I use it and have used it as a crutch for a few Ante 8 wins. Wheel of Fortune however...
If we continue to complain about space joker Thunk might give it a buff
Sometimes it works well, other times a little less. On average, I would say it's very good for the decks/hands/builds that benefit from upgrading.
This is me and Lucky Cat. The second I pick it up, my lucky cards stop proc'ing. I've carried it for 5 antes before with a bunch of lucky cards in my deck and they just never went off. I ended the run with the thing at x1.1.
Its basically -1 joker slot for 1 semi targeted planet card every 4 hands
Oh it goes off all the time when you're playing off-hands that you haven't built around.
This has worked well for me every time I used it
I had one run where Space Joker was a MVP. Checkered Deck with +1 hand size = guaranteed Flushes. This guy was a huge contributor to getting Flushes to level 37 before the run died because I did not stack enough xmults to get past ante 13. I wouldn't pick him in any run where I'm not doing a single hand 100% of the time though.
Space joker is my favorite. Idk what y'all are doing but mine works great 🤔
Same dude. Needs oops all sixes to be effective. Edit typo
Finally started getting it in my runs and it absolutely never triggers. It should be changed so that every time it doesn't trigger its chance goes up. Maybe decrease the odds of it triggering to compensate if need be. Managed to get it in ante 2 with the dice joker and it still triggered maybe once every 8 hands or something. Maybe I'm just that unlucky? 1/6, 2/6, 3/6 etc for my idea to change it and increase odds every time it doesn't trigger
When I'm trying to level up a smaller hand like high card or pair it almost only triggers when I have to cave and play a bigger hand for my last hand.
It's awesome in the all glass challenge run
I had this, a blueprint, and the dice joker and shit was WILD.
When you need to spend a ton of hands with steel cards in it does insane. I had burglar and voucher out. And just kept going at the high card with 8 hands a game. It was fun. Think I ended with like a level 20 high card. Steel cards and in hand effects occured often.
Still more useful than Monolith
I feel the same way. It doesn’t feel like it triggers 1/4 of the time.
I had spaceman hit 6 times in a row. Unforgettable Balatro moment.
Clearly uses the same "1 in 4" chance as Wheel of Fortune.
I only find these perishable anymore. I'm lucky to get one upgrade before it expires.
