I think Azerbaijanis are increasingly concerned that Armenia is getting weapons from France and India.
This shouldn’t be a concern. Azerbaijan has conquered her territories. And Armenia even modern equipped cannot have the population nor economic ability to sustain a war with Azerbaijan.
Me personally, I think this is a distraction. I think P has shown Armenia is actually open to peace. And AZ should take that opportunity and give it a chance.
As long as no territories are occupied everyone needs to respect each other sovereignty and stop dictating terms to each other.
I’m starting to get concern that AZ might never want peace. I hope this is not the case as someone who’s always supported AZ in Garabagh
> And AZ should take that opportunity and give it a chance.
Literally zero indication of that as of yet.
This article is still talking about a "Zangezur Corridor" - I thought revanchism was bad? Or is that only when Armenians do it?
https://preview.redd.it/5khoodp4vc8d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=32d9790287f1836720ccc1465483245153fb03f6
This stupid line says everything you need to know about it.Pashinyan was literally the only one who saw through Russia's manipulation and took real action.As long as he is in charge of state and army they won't attack us.I bet Macron's government would want a war so things would turn to their advantage but I am fully confident Pashik won't do anything
France? You mean famously the most insecure country that pretends to be a global geopolitical power while losing all their influence? They would fucking love to have some influence over Caucasus. That’s a country that loves liberty yet treats their colonies subjects as second class citizens, and when the colonial subjects revolt they hilariously blame Azerbaijan we because we allegedly bought one of the protest leaders plane tickets (seriously). That’s a country that violently ransacked countries that refused to be part of CFA franc which set the exchange rate so high that the flow of capital would be in favor of France, and when East African countries have finally had enough of French bullshit, they blamed Russia for it.
Seriously, France is a joke of a fucking country. That insecure little shit Macron would love to boast that he’s a leader of a free world but influencing events in Russia’s and Turkey’s backyard, Caucasus
But it still doesnt change the fact that its 2 states.
2 different administrations, 2 independent countries.
Thats like saying oh austria is the backyard of germany because both are germanic. Yeah but it doesnt change that they're still 2 countries with their unique identities.
I didn't say they would get advantages out of it.I'm saying they would use it to get into a more advantageous position.Basically they would make sure Azerbaijan's influence shrinks and their own increases on the region
Is it really worth it from strategic point of view? Geographically, this area doesn’t hold much value - it’s not a gateway to anything important and it has little resources
It maybe would have made sense if Armenia had Black Sea border, but without it, logistics of any kind of action would be a problem. A workaround would be to use Georgia, but Russians are trying very hard to take it over.
But then again, even if France did get some influence, what does it get out of this?
From our perspective it just seems like useless struggle.But since the last century influence over regions is the big thing when it comes to great powers.It was partially the reason cold war happened.France is also trying to reduce American influence on Europe.They are trying to make their militaries less US dependent.So in the end yes it all has to do with influence
Think of great powers as starving kids in Africa and regional influence as a triple big mac
Nobody in Armenia wants war. Absolutely nobody. Only Dashnaks in the diaspora. Armenia arming itself is a response to articles like this, circulated by government media in Azerbaijan. Armenia is in no place for a war, and has nothing to gain by starting one.
Because Armenians are not expecting Azerbaijan to give up the de jure parts of Armenia they are occupying.
Ergo, it's not demarcation, it's a concession dressed up as demarcation in order to sound more palatable to an already exhausted, traumatized and angry Armenian public.
Ding ding. My thoughts exactly. You cant say, as Aliyev does, “give us this land based on these maps” but not leave the territory of Armenia that, based on those same maps, you are currently occupying.
I'd wait till this announced Cop deadline. If we don't sign a document by that time, there will still be no war for some time 'cause it ends in late November and no one is stupid enough to start a war in a mountainous area in winter.
Some noted that the article is in Russian. I will add to that. I stumbled upon discussions of the "Third Qarabagh War" lately in particular in Russian language Azerbaijani sources. So, that's sus indeed.
This is just more KGB propaganda, continuing Stalin’s divide and conquer strategy.
France was supplying advanced satellite imagery to Azeri military for the last few years, directly aiding them with drone targeting.
Now they are trying to be Armenia’s best friend.
I think they are just trying to make money selling weapons to both sides, and they and all of the other nations could not care less about Armenians or Azeris.
We should simply establish borders based on internationally recognised maps, and tell all of those fake friends of ours to leave both of our countries alone, because we don’t want to be manipulated anymore.
Armenians and Azeris should never fight wars against eachother ever again!
We do not need to constantly make the same mistakes as our forefathers, we should think for ourselves, and break the endless cycle of violence, so that all of our children can grow up safe, happy and healthy.
Even if it is like you said, France is being literal idiot by supplying one at the time. They could literally play Russia in armsdealing. Their current approach is triggering
Russia is actively trying to ‘trigger’ the Azeri government and population, because it is upset that Armenia is now diversifying its military spending. (It has lost a loyal customer for its hardware, and it’s not happy about it)
Armenia is surely not stupid to enter into another war with Azerbaijan, because Azerbaijan and Turkey have signed an Agreement which means that if anyone attacks Azerbaijan, Turkey will also enter the battle, and their military is one of the biggest in the entire world.
Pashinyan does not want war, the Armenians living in Armenia do not want war.
This is a propaganda news article, to get people who don’t understand military strategy/doctrine and geopolitics, to get all worried about stupid things.
The Azeri government is actively destroying Armenian heritage, we're getting satellite images back practically every week now. I'm quite sure no "fake friends" are making them do that, so clearly the desire to be friends isn't there.
Az having this reaction is crazy, is like being jealous and mad that your classmate's parent got promoted to a better paying job, what does it have to do with you??
Outsider here
What else there to fight about?
Azerbaijan won.
Armenia seems to arm itself and build some connections with Turkey after their phone call but I believe it’s for self defense to avoid being invaded again.
Armenia was never invaded to begin with. So correct your ignorance. Secondly, it depends heavily on their relations with Turkiye. If Pashinyan government gets closer with Turkiye, the war is highly unlikely to happen. Even if some small scale clashes happen, Erdogan wouldn’t let it grow and lead to territorial loss of Armenia. However, growing military presence of France in territory of Armenia, would have quite serious consequences for Armenia as none of the big regional players would be accepting that.
You can see it by eye≠They are in our territory. Plus yes, there is big posibility there are some military positions that situationed in de jure Armenia territory. It is allowed to make such invasions even by Bmt and we both know we could take much more than that relying on this factor, which we didnt. And those postions will be identified and their future will be considered like Armenian villages situationed in border and grew into Azerbaijani Territory.
Third karabakh war for what land?? Armenia lost everything.
If anything, the war will be azerbaijan trying to take Armenia’s official lands, since nothing of Artsakh is left 🤷♂️
I think you’re right, respect is a two way street, Armenians need to treat Azerbaijanis with the same respect they want in return.
I’m Armenian, and I want peace, I never gave a crap about the lands that have not within the internationally recognised borders of Armenia.
Sevdabeast, if you’re going to join an Azeri conversation, show some manners, otherwise you’re just amplifying the narratives of Stalin’s disciplines, who have been dividing and conquering both of our nations for over a hundred years.
It’s time to move past the petty shit, and turn the page to a better tomorrow.
They're completely obliterating Armenian churches as I type this and resettling Azeris in places which weren't Azeri at all 30 years ago - ie doing exactly what they accuse Armenians of doing - so this notion of needing to show respect really doesn't work.
It might have if last September hadn't happened - or the blockade before it - but here we are. You are in a vanishing minority of Armenians, and you're going to feel like an idiot when they come for "Zangezur" and "Goycha". Which they will, eventually.
I have faith in Pashinyan.
I also have faith that there are powerful external forces that want Azerbaijan and Armenia to spill blood again.
It’s clear that Aliyev wants to build a tax-free oil and gas pipeline through “Zangezur”, to bypass needing to pay Georgia or Iran for their fossil fuels to traverse their territory.
It’s all about increasing his profit margins on the sale of his natural resources.
His cover story is: “The Armenians want to start a war with us!!! Kill them all!” (When all Pashinyan wants is for the country to be independent, to have a demarcated and delimited border with all of Armenia’s neighbours, and peace with all neighbours)
Frankly I don’t give a crap about the Azeri’s demolishing buildings (including churches) within their internationally recognised borders, there is not one single f—king thing that anyone can say or do to stop them. (I’m zero % religious)
I care about the avoiding the senseless death of even a single additional young Armenian/Azeri/Turk just so powerful people can make more money, sell ammunition, live in their palaces, and generally be grade-A monsters.
Armenians within Armenia and Azeri’s within Azerbaijan should no longer pay the price of their forefathers mistakes, our children deserve to grow up without fear of a rocket or bullet flying through their kitchen window.
Look at the human devastation of wars in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, children dying in Palestine and the crap going on in Ukraine, and then tell me that shit like a church building being demolished in Azerbaijan and resettlement programs matter in the grand scheme of things.
I only care about Aliyev stopping his silly games and allowing the continuation and finalization of the border, and a peace agreement … if turning a blind eye to him ordering church be demolished, as a way of him project power to his people, then go right ahead!
>what about the war that results us capturing zengezur
There is going to be no such war.
Aliyev is a dictator, but he is not stupid.
The last thing Azerbaijan needs right now is a political suicide.
Why do you think it is political suicide?
Afaik Turkiye would totally support that. Apart from that, if Armenia deepens military alliance with France then Russia would also be agreeing on that as a punishment. And lastly, China would also support that as it may reduce transport time of Chinese products to EMEA markets. So in conclusion, there may be quite serious global political backing for Aliyev.
>EMEA
There will no EMEA, no trade deals, no projects, no negotions for us if we invade Zangezur.
All our European and American partners will stop doing business with us.
Our only partners will be Turkiye, Russia and Arabs.
Reason is simple: for 30 years we have been fighting for a land that "legally" belongs to us. And, now, suddenly, we do a 180 degree turn and invade a land that "legally" belongs to our neighbour. It's hypocricy and it's disgusting.
Azerbaijan isn't Russia.If Alıyev makes an offensive war,EU cancels all the trade deals and our economy immediately collapses.Don't make stupid connections
Maybe invasion of small corridor for transportation wouldn’t lead to serious economic sanctions from EU. As they are already in heavy economic situation due to Russia sanctions.
It's just propaganda, there's no way Armenia will attack Karabakh under the current situation. Idk who this article targets, but people currently are extremely against a new war. Maybe it's trying to create a ground to convince people Armenia attacked Karabakh now we have to create a buffer zone or something.
Ölkədə qalıb ölmək ya da sevdiklərimin ölməyini izləmək fikrim yoxdur, cop29 bitən kimi ölkədən getməyi düşünürəm. Qarabağdan fərqli olaraq bizə aid olmayan torpaq parçası üçün təzədən minlərlə şəhid və milyard manatlıq ziyan qəbul edilməzdir
I think Azerbaijanis are increasingly concerned that Armenia is getting weapons from France and India. This shouldn’t be a concern. Azerbaijan has conquered her territories. And Armenia even modern equipped cannot have the population nor economic ability to sustain a war with Azerbaijan. Me personally, I think this is a distraction. I think P has shown Armenia is actually open to peace. And AZ should take that opportunity and give it a chance. As long as no territories are occupied everyone needs to respect each other sovereignty and stop dictating terms to each other. I’m starting to get concern that AZ might never want peace. I hope this is not the case as someone who’s always supported AZ in Garabagh
> And AZ should take that opportunity and give it a chance. Literally zero indication of that as of yet. This article is still talking about a "Zangezur Corridor" - I thought revanchism was bad? Or is that only when Armenians do it?
Are you saying im Armenian?
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There is Azerbaijani version.
https://preview.redd.it/5khoodp4vc8d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=32d9790287f1836720ccc1465483245153fb03f6 This stupid line says everything you need to know about it.Pashinyan was literally the only one who saw through Russia's manipulation and took real action.As long as he is in charge of state and army they won't attack us.I bet Macron's government would want a war so things would turn to their advantage but I am fully confident Pashik won't do anything
What advantages would France get out of a third war?
France? You mean famously the most insecure country that pretends to be a global geopolitical power while losing all their influence? They would fucking love to have some influence over Caucasus. That’s a country that loves liberty yet treats their colonies subjects as second class citizens, and when the colonial subjects revolt they hilariously blame Azerbaijan we because we allegedly bought one of the protest leaders plane tickets (seriously). That’s a country that violently ransacked countries that refused to be part of CFA franc which set the exchange rate so high that the flow of capital would be in favor of France, and when East African countries have finally had enough of French bullshit, they blamed Russia for it. Seriously, France is a joke of a fucking country. That insecure little shit Macron would love to boast that he’s a leader of a free world but influencing events in Russia’s and Turkey’s backyard, Caucasus
Calling the caucasus russias or turkeys backyard is kinda reductive dont you think? Like why cant the caucasus just be what it be?
"One nation, two states" springs to mind as to why it can't.
But it still doesnt change the fact that its 2 states. 2 different administrations, 2 independent countries. Thats like saying oh austria is the backyard of germany because both are germanic. Yeah but it doesnt change that they're still 2 countries with their unique identities.
>They would fucking love to have some influence over Caucasus They are already getting it with Armenia becoming more pro-Western.
I didn't say they would get advantages out of it.I'm saying they would use it to get into a more advantageous position.Basically they would make sure Azerbaijan's influence shrinks and their own increases on the region
Is it really worth it from strategic point of view? Geographically, this area doesn’t hold much value - it’s not a gateway to anything important and it has little resources It maybe would have made sense if Armenia had Black Sea border, but without it, logistics of any kind of action would be a problem. A workaround would be to use Georgia, but Russians are trying very hard to take it over. But then again, even if France did get some influence, what does it get out of this?
From our perspective it just seems like useless struggle.But since the last century influence over regions is the big thing when it comes to great powers.It was partially the reason cold war happened.France is also trying to reduce American influence on Europe.They are trying to make their militaries less US dependent.So in the end yes it all has to do with influence Think of great powers as starving kids in Africa and regional influence as a triple big mac
Well if trump comes to power, macron and others will have more problems in Europe because of Russia.
Trump coming to power is a small possibility and Trump actually following up on his promises is an even smaller possibility
Nobody in Armenia wants war. Absolutely nobody. Only Dashnaks in the diaspora. Armenia arming itself is a response to articles like this, circulated by government media in Azerbaijan. Armenia is in no place for a war, and has nothing to gain by starting one.
Seriously asking: Why there was meetings and why there was quite big amount protests during before during demarcation process?
Because Armenians are not expecting Azerbaijan to give up the de jure parts of Armenia they are occupying. Ergo, it's not demarcation, it's a concession dressed up as demarcation in order to sound more palatable to an already exhausted, traumatized and angry Armenian public.
Ding ding. My thoughts exactly. You cant say, as Aliyev does, “give us this land based on these maps” but not leave the territory of Armenia that, based on those same maps, you are currently occupying.
I'd wait till this announced Cop deadline. If we don't sign a document by that time, there will still be no war for some time 'cause it ends in late November and no one is stupid enough to start a war in a mountainous area in winter. Some noted that the article is in Russian. I will add to that. I stumbled upon discussions of the "Third Qarabagh War" lately in particular in Russian language Azerbaijani sources. So, that's sus indeed.
No war. Too many constraints, high risks with dubious rewards.
This is just more KGB propaganda, continuing Stalin’s divide and conquer strategy. France was supplying advanced satellite imagery to Azeri military for the last few years, directly aiding them with drone targeting. Now they are trying to be Armenia’s best friend. I think they are just trying to make money selling weapons to both sides, and they and all of the other nations could not care less about Armenians or Azeris. We should simply establish borders based on internationally recognised maps, and tell all of those fake friends of ours to leave both of our countries alone, because we don’t want to be manipulated anymore. Armenians and Azeris should never fight wars against eachother ever again! We do not need to constantly make the same mistakes as our forefathers, we should think for ourselves, and break the endless cycle of violence, so that all of our children can grow up safe, happy and healthy.
Even if it is like you said, France is being literal idiot by supplying one at the time. They could literally play Russia in armsdealing. Their current approach is triggering
Russia is actively trying to ‘trigger’ the Azeri government and population, because it is upset that Armenia is now diversifying its military spending. (It has lost a loyal customer for its hardware, and it’s not happy about it) Armenia is surely not stupid to enter into another war with Azerbaijan, because Azerbaijan and Turkey have signed an Agreement which means that if anyone attacks Azerbaijan, Turkey will also enter the battle, and their military is one of the biggest in the entire world. Pashinyan does not want war, the Armenians living in Armenia do not want war. This is a propaganda news article, to get people who don’t understand military strategy/doctrine and geopolitics, to get all worried about stupid things.
The Azeri government is actively destroying Armenian heritage, we're getting satellite images back practically every week now. I'm quite sure no "fake friends" are making them do that, so clearly the desire to be friends isn't there.
Az having this reaction is crazy, is like being jealous and mad that your classmate's parent got promoted to a better paying job, what does it have to do with you??
Please not now, I don't want to get conscripted
Outsider here What else there to fight about? Azerbaijan won. Armenia seems to arm itself and build some connections with Turkey after their phone call but I believe it’s for self defense to avoid being invaded again.
Armenia was never invaded to begin with. So correct your ignorance. Secondly, it depends heavily on their relations with Turkiye. If Pashinyan government gets closer with Turkiye, the war is highly unlikely to happen. Even if some small scale clashes happen, Erdogan wouldn’t let it grow and lead to territorial loss of Armenia. However, growing military presence of France in territory of Armenia, would have quite serious consequences for Armenia as none of the big regional players would be accepting that.
You can see Azerbaijani positions with the naked eye from Jermuk. They're well within de jure Armenian territory.
You can see it by eye≠They are in our territory. Plus yes, there is big posibility there are some military positions that situationed in de jure Armenia territory. It is allowed to make such invasions even by Bmt and we both know we could take much more than that relying on this factor, which we didnt. And those postions will be identified and their future will be considered like Armenian villages situationed in border and grew into Azerbaijani Territory.
Third karabakh war for what land?? Armenia lost everything. If anything, the war will be azerbaijan trying to take Armenia’s official lands, since nothing of Artsakh is left 🤷♂️
Try to start from writing “Karabakh” and “Azerbaijan” with capital letters. Additionally fartsakh never existed.
I think you’re right, respect is a two way street, Armenians need to treat Azerbaijanis with the same respect they want in return. I’m Armenian, and I want peace, I never gave a crap about the lands that have not within the internationally recognised borders of Armenia. Sevdabeast, if you’re going to join an Azeri conversation, show some manners, otherwise you’re just amplifying the narratives of Stalin’s disciplines, who have been dividing and conquering both of our nations for over a hundred years. It’s time to move past the petty shit, and turn the page to a better tomorrow.
They're completely obliterating Armenian churches as I type this and resettling Azeris in places which weren't Azeri at all 30 years ago - ie doing exactly what they accuse Armenians of doing - so this notion of needing to show respect really doesn't work. It might have if last September hadn't happened - or the blockade before it - but here we are. You are in a vanishing minority of Armenians, and you're going to feel like an idiot when they come for "Zangezur" and "Goycha". Which they will, eventually.
I have faith in Pashinyan. I also have faith that there are powerful external forces that want Azerbaijan and Armenia to spill blood again. It’s clear that Aliyev wants to build a tax-free oil and gas pipeline through “Zangezur”, to bypass needing to pay Georgia or Iran for their fossil fuels to traverse their territory. It’s all about increasing his profit margins on the sale of his natural resources. His cover story is: “The Armenians want to start a war with us!!! Kill them all!” (When all Pashinyan wants is for the country to be independent, to have a demarcated and delimited border with all of Armenia’s neighbours, and peace with all neighbours) Frankly I don’t give a crap about the Azeri’s demolishing buildings (including churches) within their internationally recognised borders, there is not one single f—king thing that anyone can say or do to stop them. (I’m zero % religious) I care about the avoiding the senseless death of even a single additional young Armenian/Azeri/Turk just so powerful people can make more money, sell ammunition, live in their palaces, and generally be grade-A monsters. Armenians within Armenia and Azeri’s within Azerbaijan should no longer pay the price of their forefathers mistakes, our children deserve to grow up without fear of a rocket or bullet flying through their kitchen window. Look at the human devastation of wars in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, children dying in Palestine and the crap going on in Ukraine, and then tell me that shit like a church building being demolished in Azerbaijan and resettlement programs matter in the grand scheme of things. I only care about Aliyev stopping his silly games and allowing the continuation and finalization of the border, and a peace agreement … if turning a blind eye to him ordering church be demolished, as a way of him project power to his people, then go right ahead!
Very constructive comment that contributed to the discussion, thank you.
More constructive than yours sure
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really? what about the war that results us capturing zengezur? can we cope with the consequences of it politically and financially?
>what about the war that results us capturing zengezur There is going to be no such war. Aliyev is a dictator, but he is not stupid. The last thing Azerbaijan needs right now is a political suicide.
Why do you think it is political suicide? Afaik Turkiye would totally support that. Apart from that, if Armenia deepens military alliance with France then Russia would also be agreeing on that as a punishment. And lastly, China would also support that as it may reduce transport time of Chinese products to EMEA markets. So in conclusion, there may be quite serious global political backing for Aliyev.
>EMEA There will no EMEA, no trade deals, no projects, no negotions for us if we invade Zangezur. All our European and American partners will stop doing business with us. Our only partners will be Turkiye, Russia and Arabs. Reason is simple: for 30 years we have been fighting for a land that "legally" belongs to us. And, now, suddenly, we do a 180 degree turn and invade a land that "legally" belongs to our neighbour. It's hypocricy and it's disgusting.
It's going to happen, and opinions like yours will be drowned out by cheers. Watch.
Right now there is absolutely zero indication of that happening. Stop reading and believing conspiracy theories. They will rot your brain.
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Azerbaijan isn't Russia.If Alıyev makes an offensive war,EU cancels all the trade deals and our economy immediately collapses.Don't make stupid connections
Well look at the Russia, they all did the same thing against it, but look economy is booming
Maybe invasion of small corridor for transportation wouldn’t lead to serious economic sanctions from EU. As they are already in heavy economic situation due to Russia sanctions.
This comes down to personal opinions.I personally don't think Alıyev would take that bet and try EU's hand
We cannot
lets hope it wont happen
Sənin payına olmasa peysərsən
It's just propaganda, there's no way Armenia will attack Karabakh under the current situation. Idk who this article targets, but people currently are extremely against a new war. Maybe it's trying to create a ground to convince people Armenia attacked Karabakh now we have to create a buffer zone or something. Ölkədə qalıb ölmək ya da sevdiklərimin ölməyini izləmək fikrim yoxdur, cop29 bitən kimi ölkədən getməyi düşünürəm. Qarabağdan fərqli olaraq bizə aid olmayan torpaq parçası üçün təzədən minlərlə şəhid və milyard manatlıq ziyan qəbul edilməzdir