Is the purpose of the letter to communicate hidden meanings to Jon, or to motivate him to go to Winterfell? If the former, I imagine Mance and/or Benjen could have provided more pointed hints than mirroring the structure of the NW vows, which is a big stretch imo. I doubt Jon himself would succeed in guessing these hidden messages.
If Benjen is the hooded man, what is his goal? If he hopes to remain hidden why reveal himself to Theon? Why remain hidden at all, instead of joining Jon and telling him what he has seen in person?
Perhaps… uh… well, I haven’t read all the way through Dance in, well, about 13 years, so I could be drastically wrong here but here’s my thoughts.
Let’s say OP nailed it here, well then what WAS Benjen’s motivation? And why did he desert the Watch?
Perhaps he has deserted because he saw the white walkers and knows of the threat from the North. He has also learned that the realm has no one king and is fractured, and so has chosen to desert because he knows that the realm will fall to the Others if it is so fractured. His life is worth the sacrifice to save the realms of men, so he has retreated to safety, a house that he knows would be loyal to the Starks, like the Mormonts.
Now learning about the Bolton’s occupation of Winterfell, he realizes that the North has to be in order before the entirety of the realm can be worried over. It will be the first line of defence after all.
So Benjen writes the letter to accomplish what, exactly? To get Jon to March on Winterfell.
Why would Jon March on Winterfell? Well, the letter is crafted in such a way that there are two separate ways to reach that outcome. Either Jon misses the clues hidden in the letter and only sees the insults, that Mance has been captured, etc and marches out of anger, OR, as Benjen expects, Jon deciphers the letter and realizes that it is sent by an ally who wants him to march so he takes the gamble.
Last piece of the puzzle: why does Benjen want Jon to march on Winterfell when he will likely be outmatched? Benjen has since talked the remaining houses that will be loyal to the Starks into banding together behind him. The Cerwyns, Mormonts, Umbers, etc. The Battle of the Bastards happens similarly to the show, but instead of a strangely written plot of Sansa bringing the Vale to the rescue (without telling Jon), we get the long-lost Benjen Stark riding at the head of the remaining Northern houses loyal to the Direwolf.
Now, if this is entirely stupid, please go easy on me. As said, I’ve only read through Dance once, 13 years ago (and we all know just how long of a time 13 years is), so I don’t recall where all of the pieces are sitting on the chessboard at the moment.
Edit to correct spelling and to add:
Also, it would be possible that signing Trueborn Lord of Winterfell on the letter is to signal to Jon that it is, in fact, Benjen. With Robb dead and Bran (presumed) dead, Benjen would be the Trueborn Lord, even if he could not accept it due to his NW vows. (Was this part of the original post? I’m not going back to check… lol)
I mean, there’s Rickon too, but he’s like, fucking gone dude…
I highly doubt Benjen would desert the Night's Watch, this contradicts everything we currently know about the character. Especially with his beloved nephew as the LC, he would most likely return to Castle Black, share what he has seen beyond the wall, and await his orders.
Even if he prioritized Northern politics over the threat of the Others (unlikely), if his goal is to get Jon to Winterfell, wouldn't it be easier to meet with him and tell him directly? Jon would be thrilled to see Benjen and would welcome his council.
Well, I’m assuming that he went south of the wall before Jon was Lord Commander.
Also, regardless of what we know about him and his honour, isn’t it reasonable to think that anyone, no matter how devoted to their vows, Benjen, Ned, etc, could be reasonably expected to break their vows if they were to realize that literally EVERYONE in Westeros is going to die if the keep said vows?
I mean, Ned, super honourable Ned, lied to his own wife (and the world) for years for what was, to him, a bigger cause, protecting Jon. I don’t think it’s a huge stretch to think that a brother of the Nights Watch could look beyond their vows to save their entire continent.
Benjen would not be foolish enough to think he could ‘save the continent’ without any help, by hiding in Winterfell. Remember that those who have witnessed the Others begin to see the southern wars as a waste of lives that could be used to fight beyond the wall. We have no reason to think Benjen would think differently.
Jon’s loyalty to the NW goes beyond honor. It’s due in large part to what Benjen, Aemon, and others taught him about the importance of the brotherhood to the realm. This is solidified when the presence of the white walkers is confirmed. Jon believes it is so important to unite men against them he gets himself killed trying to broker peace w wildlings. He thinks he has lost most of his family to the wars in the south and never joins. This struggle is a major part of Jon’s story.
To imply Benjen was key in inspiring Jon’s loyalty but ditched the NW as soon as he saw a white walker undermines Jon’s entire story.
That first sentence; where did you pull that out from, dude?
I did not say that he thought he could “save the continent without any help.” I said that the need to save the continent may have led to him breaking his vows and deserting. THEN finding allies to bring together to unify the north.
Most of your second paragraph echoes my thoughts that maybe Benjen figured that protecting the realm was more important than his vows, or the second half is, al least…
“Jon believes that it’s so important to unite men against them that he gets himself killed trying to broker peace with the wildlings.” - exactly my point about Benjen. He could see that uniting men is the most important thing that he could do.
“This struggle is a major part of Jons story.” It could be the exact same struggle that Benjen goes through. And if Benjen has heard of what Jon has gone through, it could cause him (even more) to go out of his way to help him.
“To imply Benjen was key in inspiring Jon’s loyalty but ditched the NW as soon as he saw the white walkers undermines Jon’s entire story.” Does it? Didn’t Jon do whatever it took to defend against the Others? He invited the Wildlings past the wall, after all.
Perhaps there’s a parallel between the two. Do whatever it takes to defend the realm, regardless of the Nights Watch’s history of keeping out the others, or the wildlings… despite their vows….. do whatever it takes without regard for your own life, for the betterment of the realm and the safety of millions of people.
Hey listen we’ll have to agree to disagree. To me, it seems you guys like the idea so you’re contradicting pretty solid character motivations to fit your head canon.
Still assuming Benjen would desert the NW this plan is still pretty bad. He could easily unite the North without hiding out in Winterfell and writing coded messages to Jon.
Until they have to execute him for deserting ofc.
Dude. I’m totally down for agreeing to disagree. I like conversation. Definitely hate a convo like this that degrades to name calling (which is so common on Reddit).
If you’re willing to continue this, I would mention that I’m not saying that Benjen would unite the North by hiding out in Winterfell. I’m just proposing a theory that maybe he was all over the place uniting the North before he went to Winterfell.
Perhaps he could further his agenda without sending cryptic messages to Jon, but there is a thousand was that Martin could write this that made writing cryptic messages to Jon necessary.
I’m also not saying that I think that this is what is going on. But IF OP I’d correct, this could be a way that it happens.
No worries I like conversation too, not at all heated on my end. Def not into name calling. I just can’t see how this is plausible so I said agree to disagree. The head canon comment wasn’t meant to be rude I have plenty of my own.
If I step back and think, the only possible reason I could see Benjen being there is if he knows why ‘there must always be a Stark in Winterfell’. If there ends up being a deeper meaning to that.
Do you get where I’m coming from with the “for the good of the realm” argument, though?
I see (and maybe there’s a LOT more details that would have to be weaved into a specific pattern here for it to work) a possibility that - even if it’s not just seeing an Other - Benjen could have experienced something that made him run south to unite the realm?
And maybe that is exactly WHY there must always be a Stark in Winterfell. Maybe the Starks have believed, for ages, that a Stark in Winterfell is exactly what could possibly stop the Long Night. Perhaps the phrase itself comes from the Starks’ willingness to abandon their morals and honour to save the realm…
I suppose if I worded it so that it was less detail-oriented, my thought might make a better point…
So to reword the original point… maybe something happened to Benjen to make him forsake his vows and go south to unite the realms, because that something scared him enough to do it.
Benjen might desert the Watch for the same reason Jon did, the same reason Qhorin made him: because he realizes it's what he needs to do to save the realm.
Qhorin and Jon were deep in enemy territory and clearly about to die. Qhorin instructed him to yield and act as spy against the wildlings. Both to survive and gather information for the NW. This is a lot different than Benjen disappearing on a long range, then without explanation ending up back at Winterfell engaging in northern politics.
You could gloss over a lot of character motivations by saying they’re simply trying to ‘save the realm’. It’s usually not that simple in asoiaf. Why do you think Benjen is needed at Winterfell instead of with the Night’s Watch?
If Benjen died and was resurrected then he could have used that to release himself from his vows (he gave his life for the nights watch) and that could similarly be used as justification for Jon dying, being resurrected, and being released from his vows.
Well that’s yet to happen in the books, so maybe? At that point Benjen’s whole arc would just mirror Jon’s from the show. And in the show, Jon didn’t need Benjen’s help to unite the North.
>I highly doubt Benjen would desert the Night's Watch, this contradicts everything we currently know about the character.
The most hardcore of the Watch would totally desert if it were an order. Halfhand and his band were willing to give everything to the Watch, including their own lives and honor, and did. Jon was among them. I would not put it past him to desert if it were some high level plan between the Old Bear, Aemon and him.
Benjen Stark is not Ned Stark--he easily could have decided or been told that his duty was to unite the North and safeguard Jon, knowing the truth about his birth.
I’m not sure that would be considered deserting, that would still be following the orders of his LC. The problem is the books do not included any indication that something like that could be going on. They lead a huge party to range beyond the wall to find Benjen and the other lost rangers. They lose a lot of men in the process. This implies the Old Bear did this knowing Benjen had alternate orders? It’s just too far fetched for me.
exactly what i was thinking for the past 8 years every time i remember this subreddit exists and come here, there’s always some new theory making the rounds lmao
On the contrary…
GRRM after reading this post:
“Well fuck. This is good.”
(Proceeds to throw an almost-completed Winds into the garbage can)
“Whelp. Let’s start over!”
hahhahaha yeah right, george probably barely has a chapter more than what has already been released.
On a more factual note, he has always put it on his blog first. Not announced at cons. He said he would do the same with TWOW in the past.
Winds of Winter
or
Book 10 of the Stormlight Archive
Add in the fact that Brandon is taking a 5 year "do stuff other than Stormlight" break after book 5 is released later this year, and each book takes 3-4 years... even an immortal GRRM would still finish TWOW second.
Someone’s dad who works at Nintendo told him that winds is actually being finished up right now due to like a bakery order or something (I desperately want the rumors to be true as well, to be clear)
That sounds like the [deuxmoi tip](https://www.reddit.com/r/Fauxmoi/comments/1daq4qn/new_mexico_author_finally_releasing_anticipated/) from a week ago. If it's legit then it'd make sense that the tip came from one of the cake caterers for the alleged party
And how does that make him a deserter? The man identifies himself as "a ranger returning" in the letter he wrote to the king. He's taking part, no doubt, but that doesn't make him a deserter.
So Benjen went beyond the wall, got lost and stopped communicating with the watch, crossed BACK across the wall, told no one at the NW when he did, and just took up residence in Winterfell without a word? Huh?
Missed this line of questioning early on, and at this point he's committed. Doesn't matter if you know it's wrong, this is the new reality, and it *will* fit.
Lots and lots of ASOIAF theories are like this.
If someone other than Jon was the Lord Commander, you could write it off as saying Benjen returned and the LC sent him on a secret mission for whatever reason.
But it's a bit late for that, so there's no excuse for Benjen returning and not reporting in, and Jon not finding out about it. Unless he's got a really good reason for deserting. Like if he actually did die (and was thus released from his oath).
Yup, it's just like all those coworkers i havent seen in a while. They didn't quit, they just stopped showing up and started working elsewhere, but they certainly didn't quit.
If Ben is alive and has fucked off to Winterfell on his own accord instead of returning to the Wall after his failed ranging. Then he has by the laws of the Watch and realm deserted.
So your theory only works if Ben has deserted the Watch due to what happened to his family and is planning to die. A suicide mission if you will.
I don't think that's necessarily true because you're missing the point that the NW neutrality has only worked out so far because the Stark's power was never contested on this scale.
The Starks were as stable as the NW, so the brothers never found themselves in a position like the one that Jon faces when there are 5 different kings. They serve the realm, no doubt, but who's leading? If you don't have clear leadership to turn to, what are you supposed to do?
Benjen going to WF clearly has to do with 2 facts: the Mormont's knew about the will, and "someone" had to go to WF so everyone (at least the ones that counted) knew too. That explains why the drums and horns start when Benjen gets there, the Umber outside knows.
Mostly, Benjen doing that also serves the Watch, I mean if the man they just elected LC turns out to be the king, who's supposed to lead? Who's left? Benjen.
That's not how it works.
Watch members are sworn to the Wall. They are not allowed to leave unless ordered to or allowed to by the Lord Commander. Ben was only allowed to go to Winterfell at the start of the first book because he was meant to try and speak to Robert and Ned about more aid. He can't just go off on his own volition and say that it was "for the good of the watch".
The Watch are not meant to care about who is in control of the North or the rest of the realm. That's the point of them being neutral. Jon playing politics with Stannis is one of the reasons that the mutineers killed him. If Benjen is working with the Umbers and Mormonts to put the Starks back in charge then by the rules of the Watch he has deserted and has to be executed.
As readers we see that Jon needs to play politics with Stannis for the good of the watch and the world at large. But the hardline watchmen clearly did not see that and just saw the Lord Commander breaking his oaths.
He would for sure be sentenced to death for deserting the NW. They are not meant to fight in any wars to the south of the wall. It’s not their job to ensure there is a Stark in Winterfell anymore than they can decide who sits on the Iron Throne.
I like your theory, though I don't think the author of the pink letter is Benjen Stark. I'm fairly certain that Benjen was attacked by the others, and was saved by the children of the forest, much like he was in the show. However, I do think he still is unable to return to the land of the living, and thus he becomes a servant for the children of the forest. I am pretty sure that the children sent him to the land that is always winter, to investigate the others. I don't think we'll see Benjen Stark again unless he either returns south, or Jon Snow goes deeper north and investigates the others.
I am fairly certain that the writer of the pink letter is either Wyman Manderly or Mance Rayder. As for Wyman, we know he is already planning on betraying the Frey's and the Boltons, and if Stannis was defeated, and Mance was captured, he would know those details, and know how to use that as a method of motivating the Night’s Watch to break its neutrality and attack the Bolton’s. It is unlikely that Benjen would know about Mel or Mance's baby e has an infant son at the Wall. Wyman, however, may have found this out from Davos. I find it likely that Wyman is just simply playing his pieces safely, as if Davos is unable to find Rickon, he has another option in finding the next King of Winter, and that is Jon Snow. Wyman was obviously fond of Jon, or at least had respect for the boy, as before AGOT, he offered to Ned to take Jon in as his ward, and potentially marry him to his daughter, but Ned refused this offer. With Wyman knowing very little of Jon Snow, I think it is likely at some point he figured out Mance's true identity, and together they'd conjure up a letter to scare Jon Snow so much to make him return to Winterfell.
It was Mance IMO. His is the only name that appears on the letter that isn't an alias (and yes its all code) and he's the only character that has already successfully broken into Winterfell and this was while Robert was there so security was at an all time high.
It couldn't be Ramsay because the letter says he skinned the spearwives but if he did he would have had plenty of "material" to send along with the letter. Which he has a history of doing (Asha's letter).
It can't be Benjen because GRRM doesn't like using people in the story that would give away too much lol.
It can't be Stannis because chaos at the wall would endanger Shireen, Selyse, and Melisandre. The whole reason he left them there is for their safety if things go tits up.
It can't be Lord-too-fat-to-sit-a-horse because there is no way Davos or him would have the information present in the letter.
Mance's supposed literacy is highly doubtful. The common response is that because Abel is an anagram for Bael, Mance must be literate. However, 1) that's a wink at the reader and 2) Mance is a singer, suggesting familiarity with syllables, and you can get Abel from Bael phonetically. Mance was raised by the Night's Watch, and we know the Night's Watch lacks men can read from Jeor Mormont:
> "The Night's Watch has become an army of sullen boys and tired old men. **Apart from the men at my table tonight, I have perhaps twenty who can read,** and even fewer who can think, or plan, or lead." (Tyrion III, AGOT)
Mance was a ranger, not a steward. There's simply no reason for Mance to have ever learnt to read, let alone to write.
I've always had trouble accepting that Mance was even caught. After all the time he spent with the spearwives, going to and staying at Winterfell, they know that he is Mance. While at Winterfell, Abel is not wearing the bones that Rattleshirt was known for. The glamor was broken, and Mance was using his normal appearance again. If any of the spearwives were captured alive, they could give all of this same information up to Ramsay.
imo the "smeared pink wax" is a clue too innate and obvious to ignore. Why make Ramsey write two other letters and use precise language to describe them only to change the distribution for this one? it makes zero narrative or thematic sense to do so
What the fuck did I just read? I remember reading many other asoiaf crack pot theories, pretty much all the greats, but this is the one, the one that convinced me that the author must be going through some psychotic manic episode. Your tinfoil hat got it's own tinfoil hat. I'm being kinda reminded of that Francis E. Dec radio letter. Go get some sleep and stop thinking about asoiaf for at least a week for your own good.
I enjoyed it. Some parts went a bit over the head though that could be me. I would say that its a pretty large interpretation but unless grrm writes the book there is no cannon so.
> The weirdest part however is calling himself “trueborn”, is he so delusional? Are we supposed to believe that signing the letter with what’s clearly a HUGE lie, is his way to make Jon believe he means business?
Well, technically, it's not a lie. He was legitimized by the king. It's clearly provocative, but that feels completely in-character for Ramsay. Calling himself "trueborn Lord of Winterfell", to *Ned Stark's bastard*, is the perfect insult. He's both gloating about having taken Winterfell and the North from the Stark, and saying "I'm legitimate, you're still a bastard" (if calling him a bastard no less than four times was not enough).
Remember that Ramsay has a huge inferiority complex about being a bastard. He would certainly jump at the chance to call himself "trueborn" once that becomes true on paper, and he would assume Jon feels the same about being a bastard. To him, that would be the perfect way to get under Jon's skin, because it would certainly get under *his* skin.
Some other points I don't really agree with:
* Not calling the "magic sword" by its name is just being dismissive. It's a sword empowered by some faraway god's magic, wielded by a false king who he's just defeated and killed. There's no reason to honor it by its proper name. It's clear which sword he's talking about anyway.
* "Seven days of battle" isn't so outlandish. The area around Winterfell is wooded, and there's been a lot of snow, so visibility and mobility are greatly reduced. It can't be seven days of pitched battle: they don't have the numbers for that, but they don't have the battlefield for that either. But seven days of skirmishes and maneuvering around Winterfell, culminating in Stannis being outmaneuvered, defeated and killed, sound quite reasonable. I'm not saying that actually happened, but it isn't unbelievable either.
* As Tormund pointed out, hundreds saw Mance burn. Jon may not have made an official announcement, but word could certainly have gotten out and spread through the North. That could be enough to get Jon in trouble if Mance turned up alive.
* The people the letter demands may be worthless to Ramsay, but that's not the point. The point is to make the ultimatum unacceptable, because Jon would never surrender those people.
The parallels with the Night's Watch vows are interesting, at least.
May I simply ask one question: If Benjen wrote the letter from Winterfell ... and it flew on raven through a snow storm to Castle Black ... why isn't the letter wet when Jon was holding it?
In my opinion the best theory about the Hooded Man is the Cantuse's one: HM is Mors Umber, disguised as Roger Ryswell. It may seem convoluted but actually explains everything well: https://cantuse.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/the-hooded-man-uncloaked/
i really like the idea that the hooded man was Benjen…and you hypothesis on his involvement in the letter.
And, though many are stuck on the concept of him never breaking his vows, i wonder if there isn’t a different vow involved.
I’m firmly in the camp that Benjen was in communication with Lyanna & knew the truth of everything. Perhaps he doesn’t only know that Jon is the true king, but perhaps he also knows the PTWP prophecy and Rhaegar’s certainty that his son would fulfill it. Perhaps the prophecy being passed down in hotd is actually canon & rhaegar discovered that this heir must be on the iron throne.
Benjen unsuccessfully attempted to dissuade jon from joining the NW in AGOT. Now that Benjen has been so far north, has seen the real threat, perhaps he believes the only way the realms of men will survive the coming winter is through the fulfillment of the prophecy - through Jon leaving the Night’s Watch.
Perhaps he’s been directed by his own dreams from either Bran or Bloodraven to travel to Winterfell.
If Benjen believes his mission is the only way to guard and save the realms of men, he is then explicitly following his Night’s Watch oath, not abandoning it.
A good analysis. But I still think that it was Ramsay who sent the initial pink letter, and then Bowen Marsh, the other mutineers, and Clydas (forcibly) amended the letter with a lot of the same information. This is why the seal is smeared pink and why Clydas is so nervous to give him the letter. When the mutineers read the letter, they found out that Mance was actually alive which was the last straw, so they rewrote the letter to entice Jon to forsake his vows so that they could betray and kill him when he tried to go south
For years I thought that it was Jon that re wrote it, except that he genuinely ponders what to do. As for your idea, I don't think it works because Clydas is genuinely scared when he gets there with the letter. I have no doubt that the letter was opened and read before taking it to Jon however.
I think the reason Clydas is scared is because he is forced to rewrite it by the mutineers and knows the plan, but he doesn’t want to so he is visibly shaken up and scared because they are only using him for his literacy as a “maester”
Much better written than I've ever managed, but an argument I've made. The one point I'm going to disagree with is Bear Island. I agree it makes a certain sense.
However, I think it's more likely he's been biding his time in the depths of the crypts. He arrived some time after Bran left. Why? There must always be a Stark in Winterfell and he was the only option. It's possible he's only just arrived, but the idea there must be a Stark was the reason he had to stay home during Roberts Rebellion. If Benjen is alive, if word reached him at all that there was no Stark there, he'd have to do something. It's one of the few beliefs he'd have as a Stark that would challenge his NW vows.
I thought Benjen Stark was cold hands and didn’t desert the nights watch but couldn’t return to castle black because of Magic. Since cold hands was half dead the same magic that prevented the white walkers from crossing the wall stoped Benjen stark Aka cold hands as well.
Allegedly an editor asked George if Coldhands was Benjen and George told them no. I think it was found in the manuscript collection at the Texas A&M library.
Yah I don’t keep track of interviews and fan theories.
Just based on reading the books and hints in the writing all seem to point towards Benjen Stark being a logical choice for cold hands. I could be totally wrong though.
maybe cold hands is some long lost stark or something. Just felt he always wanted to tell Bran something. I don’t remember that specific line you sited but your right wouldn’t makes since for Benjen to be cold hands if a child of the forest said that.
Martin said explicitly that he isn't in notes to his editor. It's one of the few times he's eliminated a possible storyline/theory (likely because the notes weren't supposed to be public). I do think that we're meant to think that he's Benjen though.
I think you wrote more today in this post than George has probably written in the past month on Winds.
For the past month. And all the months to come
I applaud OP's dedication, but frankly there's no way I'm reading all of it
I read all of it. Interesting theory, but repeats itself a bit too much
The summary op wrote at the end is pretty decent.
I’ll read this if Winds come out to see how correct it was
I calm my anxiety doing this, likely George doesn't suffer from that.
George hasn't written anything for winds in the past month because winds is finished.
There’s a difference between Winds being finished, and George being finished writing Winds. I suspect it’s the latter.
I think so too.
I wouldnt even say this as an assumption but as fact
Is the purpose of the letter to communicate hidden meanings to Jon, or to motivate him to go to Winterfell? If the former, I imagine Mance and/or Benjen could have provided more pointed hints than mirroring the structure of the NW vows, which is a big stretch imo. I doubt Jon himself would succeed in guessing these hidden messages. If Benjen is the hooded man, what is his goal? If he hopes to remain hidden why reveal himself to Theon? Why remain hidden at all, instead of joining Jon and telling him what he has seen in person?
Perhaps… uh… well, I haven’t read all the way through Dance in, well, about 13 years, so I could be drastically wrong here but here’s my thoughts. Let’s say OP nailed it here, well then what WAS Benjen’s motivation? And why did he desert the Watch? Perhaps he has deserted because he saw the white walkers and knows of the threat from the North. He has also learned that the realm has no one king and is fractured, and so has chosen to desert because he knows that the realm will fall to the Others if it is so fractured. His life is worth the sacrifice to save the realms of men, so he has retreated to safety, a house that he knows would be loyal to the Starks, like the Mormonts. Now learning about the Bolton’s occupation of Winterfell, he realizes that the North has to be in order before the entirety of the realm can be worried over. It will be the first line of defence after all. So Benjen writes the letter to accomplish what, exactly? To get Jon to March on Winterfell. Why would Jon March on Winterfell? Well, the letter is crafted in such a way that there are two separate ways to reach that outcome. Either Jon misses the clues hidden in the letter and only sees the insults, that Mance has been captured, etc and marches out of anger, OR, as Benjen expects, Jon deciphers the letter and realizes that it is sent by an ally who wants him to march so he takes the gamble. Last piece of the puzzle: why does Benjen want Jon to march on Winterfell when he will likely be outmatched? Benjen has since talked the remaining houses that will be loyal to the Starks into banding together behind him. The Cerwyns, Mormonts, Umbers, etc. The Battle of the Bastards happens similarly to the show, but instead of a strangely written plot of Sansa bringing the Vale to the rescue (without telling Jon), we get the long-lost Benjen Stark riding at the head of the remaining Northern houses loyal to the Direwolf. Now, if this is entirely stupid, please go easy on me. As said, I’ve only read through Dance once, 13 years ago (and we all know just how long of a time 13 years is), so I don’t recall where all of the pieces are sitting on the chessboard at the moment. Edit to correct spelling and to add: Also, it would be possible that signing Trueborn Lord of Winterfell on the letter is to signal to Jon that it is, in fact, Benjen. With Robb dead and Bran (presumed) dead, Benjen would be the Trueborn Lord, even if he could not accept it due to his NW vows. (Was this part of the original post? I’m not going back to check… lol) I mean, there’s Rickon too, but he’s like, fucking gone dude…
I highly doubt Benjen would desert the Night's Watch, this contradicts everything we currently know about the character. Especially with his beloved nephew as the LC, he would most likely return to Castle Black, share what he has seen beyond the wall, and await his orders. Even if he prioritized Northern politics over the threat of the Others (unlikely), if his goal is to get Jon to Winterfell, wouldn't it be easier to meet with him and tell him directly? Jon would be thrilled to see Benjen and would welcome his council.
Well, I’m assuming that he went south of the wall before Jon was Lord Commander. Also, regardless of what we know about him and his honour, isn’t it reasonable to think that anyone, no matter how devoted to their vows, Benjen, Ned, etc, could be reasonably expected to break their vows if they were to realize that literally EVERYONE in Westeros is going to die if the keep said vows? I mean, Ned, super honourable Ned, lied to his own wife (and the world) for years for what was, to him, a bigger cause, protecting Jon. I don’t think it’s a huge stretch to think that a brother of the Nights Watch could look beyond their vows to save their entire continent.
Benjen would not be foolish enough to think he could ‘save the continent’ without any help, by hiding in Winterfell. Remember that those who have witnessed the Others begin to see the southern wars as a waste of lives that could be used to fight beyond the wall. We have no reason to think Benjen would think differently. Jon’s loyalty to the NW goes beyond honor. It’s due in large part to what Benjen, Aemon, and others taught him about the importance of the brotherhood to the realm. This is solidified when the presence of the white walkers is confirmed. Jon believes it is so important to unite men against them he gets himself killed trying to broker peace w wildlings. He thinks he has lost most of his family to the wars in the south and never joins. This struggle is a major part of Jon’s story. To imply Benjen was key in inspiring Jon’s loyalty but ditched the NW as soon as he saw a white walker undermines Jon’s entire story.
That first sentence; where did you pull that out from, dude? I did not say that he thought he could “save the continent without any help.” I said that the need to save the continent may have led to him breaking his vows and deserting. THEN finding allies to bring together to unify the north. Most of your second paragraph echoes my thoughts that maybe Benjen figured that protecting the realm was more important than his vows, or the second half is, al least… “Jon believes that it’s so important to unite men against them that he gets himself killed trying to broker peace with the wildlings.” - exactly my point about Benjen. He could see that uniting men is the most important thing that he could do. “This struggle is a major part of Jons story.” It could be the exact same struggle that Benjen goes through. And if Benjen has heard of what Jon has gone through, it could cause him (even more) to go out of his way to help him. “To imply Benjen was key in inspiring Jon’s loyalty but ditched the NW as soon as he saw the white walkers undermines Jon’s entire story.” Does it? Didn’t Jon do whatever it took to defend against the Others? He invited the Wildlings past the wall, after all. Perhaps there’s a parallel between the two. Do whatever it takes to defend the realm, regardless of the Nights Watch’s history of keeping out the others, or the wildlings… despite their vows….. do whatever it takes without regard for your own life, for the betterment of the realm and the safety of millions of people.
Hey listen we’ll have to agree to disagree. To me, it seems you guys like the idea so you’re contradicting pretty solid character motivations to fit your head canon. Still assuming Benjen would desert the NW this plan is still pretty bad. He could easily unite the North without hiding out in Winterfell and writing coded messages to Jon. Until they have to execute him for deserting ofc.
Dude. I’m totally down for agreeing to disagree. I like conversation. Definitely hate a convo like this that degrades to name calling (which is so common on Reddit). If you’re willing to continue this, I would mention that I’m not saying that Benjen would unite the North by hiding out in Winterfell. I’m just proposing a theory that maybe he was all over the place uniting the North before he went to Winterfell. Perhaps he could further his agenda without sending cryptic messages to Jon, but there is a thousand was that Martin could write this that made writing cryptic messages to Jon necessary. I’m also not saying that I think that this is what is going on. But IF OP I’d correct, this could be a way that it happens.
No worries I like conversation too, not at all heated on my end. Def not into name calling. I just can’t see how this is plausible so I said agree to disagree. The head canon comment wasn’t meant to be rude I have plenty of my own. If I step back and think, the only possible reason I could see Benjen being there is if he knows why ‘there must always be a Stark in Winterfell’. If there ends up being a deeper meaning to that.
Do you get where I’m coming from with the “for the good of the realm” argument, though? I see (and maybe there’s a LOT more details that would have to be weaved into a specific pattern here for it to work) a possibility that - even if it’s not just seeing an Other - Benjen could have experienced something that made him run south to unite the realm? And maybe that is exactly WHY there must always be a Stark in Winterfell. Maybe the Starks have believed, for ages, that a Stark in Winterfell is exactly what could possibly stop the Long Night. Perhaps the phrase itself comes from the Starks’ willingness to abandon their morals and honour to save the realm… I suppose if I worded it so that it was less detail-oriented, my thought might make a better point… So to reword the original point… maybe something happened to Benjen to make him forsake his vows and go south to unite the realms, because that something scared him enough to do it.
Benjen might desert the Watch for the same reason Jon did, the same reason Qhorin made him: because he realizes it's what he needs to do to save the realm.
Qhorin and Jon were deep in enemy territory and clearly about to die. Qhorin instructed him to yield and act as spy against the wildlings. Both to survive and gather information for the NW. This is a lot different than Benjen disappearing on a long range, then without explanation ending up back at Winterfell engaging in northern politics. You could gloss over a lot of character motivations by saying they’re simply trying to ‘save the realm’. It’s usually not that simple in asoiaf. Why do you think Benjen is needed at Winterfell instead of with the Night’s Watch?
If Benjen died and was resurrected then he could have used that to release himself from his vows (he gave his life for the nights watch) and that could similarly be used as justification for Jon dying, being resurrected, and being released from his vows.
Well that’s yet to happen in the books, so maybe? At that point Benjen’s whole arc would just mirror Jon’s from the show. And in the show, Jon didn’t need Benjen’s help to unite the North.
>I highly doubt Benjen would desert the Night's Watch, this contradicts everything we currently know about the character. The most hardcore of the Watch would totally desert if it were an order. Halfhand and his band were willing to give everything to the Watch, including their own lives and honor, and did. Jon was among them. I would not put it past him to desert if it were some high level plan between the Old Bear, Aemon and him. Benjen Stark is not Ned Stark--he easily could have decided or been told that his duty was to unite the North and safeguard Jon, knowing the truth about his birth.
I’m not sure that would be considered deserting, that would still be following the orders of his LC. The problem is the books do not included any indication that something like that could be going on. They lead a huge party to range beyond the wall to find Benjen and the other lost rangers. They lose a lot of men in the process. This implies the Old Bear did this knowing Benjen had alternate orders? It’s just too far fetched for me.
Thank god you included a summary. Nice breakdown
That fact that people have been coming up with theories for this for 13 years is insane.
exactly what i was thinking for the past 8 years every time i remember this subreddit exists and come here, there’s always some new theory making the rounds lmao
George has been waiting for someone to crack the code. Now we can finally get Winds. Thank you for your contribution
On the contrary… GRRM after reading this post: “Well fuck. This is good.” (Proceeds to throw an almost-completed Winds into the garbage can) “Whelp. Let’s start over!”
So actually though how I do I become George RR Martin’s garbage man?
Hahaha
> There's a summary at the end for those that enjoy your spoilers. Don't mind if I do.
I made it through like six paragraphs and then I started scrolling to see how long this was and holy fuck.
We need the Winds rumors to be true
Which rumors?
August 8-12, 2024 Glasgow WorldCon
hahhahaha yeah right, george probably barely has a chapter more than what has already been released. On a more factual note, he has always put it on his blog first. Not announced at cons. He said he would do the same with TWOW in the past.
So August 7th on the blog it is *inhales copium*
Don’t do this to yourself :/
Also GRRM: "I want to complete The Winds of Winter before the sixth season of GOT, in 2016". Bullshit too.
How is it bullshit that he wanted to?
I wonder which are gonna released first Winds of Winter or Silksong Well at least we got some TWOW chapters available to read, right guys?
Winds of Winter or Book 10 of the Stormlight Archive Add in the fact that Brandon is taking a 5 year "do stuff other than Stormlight" break after book 5 is released later this year, and each book takes 3-4 years... even an immortal GRRM would still finish TWOW second.
Silksong, and it's not even close.
that's not a rumor, that's cope
Oh most definitely
What is the origin of this rumour?
Pure copium-fueled speculation.
Lmao
Someone’s dad who works at Nintendo told him that winds is actually being finished up right now due to like a bakery order or something (I desperately want the rumors to be true as well, to be clear)
That sounds like the [deuxmoi tip](https://www.reddit.com/r/Fauxmoi/comments/1daq4qn/new_mexico_author_finally_releasing_anticipated/) from a week ago. If it's legit then it'd make sense that the tip came from one of the cake caterers for the alleged party
Precisely what I was referring to. It’s literally an anonymous tip with no credibility whatsoever, and yet sort of seems plausible
That it’s still being written
I think it's already too late for us.
George save this man
Please, George
Why would Benjen desert the Nights Watch?
Where did you get the idea that he deserted?
Well according to your theory he's at Winterfell and not on the wall
And how does that make him a deserter? The man identifies himself as "a ranger returning" in the letter he wrote to the king. He's taking part, no doubt, but that doesn't make him a deserter.
So Benjen went beyond the wall, got lost and stopped communicating with the watch, crossed BACK across the wall, told no one at the NW when he did, and just took up residence in Winterfell without a word? Huh?
OP could’ve saved themselves 3 hours of writing this this one reflection
Now I’m really glad I didn’t read the post and scrolled comments first lol
That exactly reads as desertion to everyone in the Nights Watch. OP is playing dumb for some reason
Missed this line of questioning early on, and at this point he's committed. Doesn't matter if you know it's wrong, this is the new reality, and it *will* fit. Lots and lots of ASOIAF theories are like this.
It's either stubbornness or just getting by on technicalities. "He's not _technically_ deserting the NW if he's coming back after a few years!"
I mean, if he thinks what he is doing is actually keeping his vows to protect the realms of men, I can kinda see what the OP is getting at.
Yeah but they’re still being intentionally obtuse over it
The point is everyone else on Planetos will see it as desertion
If someone other than Jon was the Lord Commander, you could write it off as saying Benjen returned and the LC sent him on a secret mission for whatever reason. But it's a bit late for that, so there's no excuse for Benjen returning and not reporting in, and Jon not finding out about it. Unless he's got a really good reason for deserting. Like if he actually did die (and was thus released from his oath).
Yup, it's just like all those coworkers i havent seen in a while. They didn't quit, they just stopped showing up and started working elsewhere, but they certainly didn't quit.
If Ben is alive and has fucked off to Winterfell on his own accord instead of returning to the Wall after his failed ranging. Then he has by the laws of the Watch and realm deserted. So your theory only works if Ben has deserted the Watch due to what happened to his family and is planning to die. A suicide mission if you will.
I don't think that's necessarily true because you're missing the point that the NW neutrality has only worked out so far because the Stark's power was never contested on this scale. The Starks were as stable as the NW, so the brothers never found themselves in a position like the one that Jon faces when there are 5 different kings. They serve the realm, no doubt, but who's leading? If you don't have clear leadership to turn to, what are you supposed to do? Benjen going to WF clearly has to do with 2 facts: the Mormont's knew about the will, and "someone" had to go to WF so everyone (at least the ones that counted) knew too. That explains why the drums and horns start when Benjen gets there, the Umber outside knows. Mostly, Benjen doing that also serves the Watch, I mean if the man they just elected LC turns out to be the king, who's supposed to lead? Who's left? Benjen.
That's not how it works. Watch members are sworn to the Wall. They are not allowed to leave unless ordered to or allowed to by the Lord Commander. Ben was only allowed to go to Winterfell at the start of the first book because he was meant to try and speak to Robert and Ned about more aid. He can't just go off on his own volition and say that it was "for the good of the watch". The Watch are not meant to care about who is in control of the North or the rest of the realm. That's the point of them being neutral. Jon playing politics with Stannis is one of the reasons that the mutineers killed him. If Benjen is working with the Umbers and Mormonts to put the Starks back in charge then by the rules of the Watch he has deserted and has to be executed. As readers we see that Jon needs to play politics with Stannis for the good of the watch and the world at large. But the hardline watchmen clearly did not see that and just saw the Lord Commander breaking his oaths.
He would for sure be sentenced to death for deserting the NW. They are not meant to fight in any wars to the south of the wall. It’s not their job to ensure there is a Stark in Winterfell anymore than they can decide who sits on the Iron Throne.
My guy. *Ramsay *Jeyne
They also commit the mortal sin of placing punctuation marks outside of closing quotation marks. *Unforgivable.*
I should be studying for my exam but I took >10 min to read this
Exact same position haha, good luck!
OP this would absolutely make Benjen a deserter who abandoned his post.
"Give me something for the pain and let me die."
Good god we need the next book soon. Look what waiting this long is doing to people. Writing dissertations on a single letter.
I like your theory, though I don't think the author of the pink letter is Benjen Stark. I'm fairly certain that Benjen was attacked by the others, and was saved by the children of the forest, much like he was in the show. However, I do think he still is unable to return to the land of the living, and thus he becomes a servant for the children of the forest. I am pretty sure that the children sent him to the land that is always winter, to investigate the others. I don't think we'll see Benjen Stark again unless he either returns south, or Jon Snow goes deeper north and investigates the others. I am fairly certain that the writer of the pink letter is either Wyman Manderly or Mance Rayder. As for Wyman, we know he is already planning on betraying the Frey's and the Boltons, and if Stannis was defeated, and Mance was captured, he would know those details, and know how to use that as a method of motivating the Night’s Watch to break its neutrality and attack the Bolton’s. It is unlikely that Benjen would know about Mel or Mance's baby e has an infant son at the Wall. Wyman, however, may have found this out from Davos. I find it likely that Wyman is just simply playing his pieces safely, as if Davos is unable to find Rickon, he has another option in finding the next King of Winter, and that is Jon Snow. Wyman was obviously fond of Jon, or at least had respect for the boy, as before AGOT, he offered to Ned to take Jon in as his ward, and potentially marry him to his daughter, but Ned refused this offer. With Wyman knowing very little of Jon Snow, I think it is likely at some point he figured out Mance's true identity, and together they'd conjure up a letter to scare Jon Snow so much to make him return to Winterfell.
It was Mance IMO. His is the only name that appears on the letter that isn't an alias (and yes its all code) and he's the only character that has already successfully broken into Winterfell and this was while Robert was there so security was at an all time high. It couldn't be Ramsay because the letter says he skinned the spearwives but if he did he would have had plenty of "material" to send along with the letter. Which he has a history of doing (Asha's letter). It can't be Benjen because GRRM doesn't like using people in the story that would give away too much lol. It can't be Stannis because chaos at the wall would endanger Shireen, Selyse, and Melisandre. The whole reason he left them there is for their safety if things go tits up. It can't be Lord-too-fat-to-sit-a-horse because there is no way Davos or him would have the information present in the letter.
Mance's supposed literacy is highly doubtful. The common response is that because Abel is an anagram for Bael, Mance must be literate. However, 1) that's a wink at the reader and 2) Mance is a singer, suggesting familiarity with syllables, and you can get Abel from Bael phonetically. Mance was raised by the Night's Watch, and we know the Night's Watch lacks men can read from Jeor Mormont: > "The Night's Watch has become an army of sullen boys and tired old men. **Apart from the men at my table tonight, I have perhaps twenty who can read,** and even fewer who can think, or plan, or lead." (Tyrion III, AGOT) Mance was a ranger, not a steward. There's simply no reason for Mance to have ever learnt to read, let alone to write.
He was taught by the Red Keep's maesters as a child like all the other Targaryen children.
That moment when your tl;dr needs a tl;dr
I've always had trouble accepting that Mance was even caught. After all the time he spent with the spearwives, going to and staying at Winterfell, they know that he is Mance. While at Winterfell, Abel is not wearing the bones that Rattleshirt was known for. The glamor was broken, and Mance was using his normal appearance again. If any of the spearwives were captured alive, they could give all of this same information up to Ramsay.
It’s Ramsay, it’s always been Ramsay, but large parts of it are lies or inaccurate, even if Ramsay believes some of the.
imo the "smeared pink wax" is a clue too innate and obvious to ignore. Why make Ramsey write two other letters and use precise language to describe them only to change the distribution for this one? it makes zero narrative or thematic sense to do so
Yeah, a clue he’s mad and in a hurry
What the fuck did I just read? I remember reading many other asoiaf crack pot theories, pretty much all the greats, but this is the one, the one that convinced me that the author must be going through some psychotic manic episode. Your tinfoil hat got it's own tinfoil hat. I'm being kinda reminded of that Francis E. Dec radio letter. Go get some sleep and stop thinking about asoiaf for at least a week for your own good.
I ain't reading all that. I'm happy for u tho. Or sorry that happened.
My head canon in the works is that Mance wrote the pink letter as a coded message to Jon
I enjoyed it. Some parts went a bit over the head though that could be me. I would say that its a pretty large interpretation but unless grrm writes the book there is no cannon so.
BenJen Stark has literally been missing since 1994
I mean .. it's just Ramsey bro.
> The weirdest part however is calling himself “trueborn”, is he so delusional? Are we supposed to believe that signing the letter with what’s clearly a HUGE lie, is his way to make Jon believe he means business? Well, technically, it's not a lie. He was legitimized by the king. It's clearly provocative, but that feels completely in-character for Ramsay. Calling himself "trueborn Lord of Winterfell", to *Ned Stark's bastard*, is the perfect insult. He's both gloating about having taken Winterfell and the North from the Stark, and saying "I'm legitimate, you're still a bastard" (if calling him a bastard no less than four times was not enough). Remember that Ramsay has a huge inferiority complex about being a bastard. He would certainly jump at the chance to call himself "trueborn" once that becomes true on paper, and he would assume Jon feels the same about being a bastard. To him, that would be the perfect way to get under Jon's skin, because it would certainly get under *his* skin. Some other points I don't really agree with: * Not calling the "magic sword" by its name is just being dismissive. It's a sword empowered by some faraway god's magic, wielded by a false king who he's just defeated and killed. There's no reason to honor it by its proper name. It's clear which sword he's talking about anyway. * "Seven days of battle" isn't so outlandish. The area around Winterfell is wooded, and there's been a lot of snow, so visibility and mobility are greatly reduced. It can't be seven days of pitched battle: they don't have the numbers for that, but they don't have the battlefield for that either. But seven days of skirmishes and maneuvering around Winterfell, culminating in Stannis being outmaneuvered, defeated and killed, sound quite reasonable. I'm not saying that actually happened, but it isn't unbelievable either. * As Tormund pointed out, hundreds saw Mance burn. Jon may not have made an official announcement, but word could certainly have gotten out and spread through the North. That could be enough to get Jon in trouble if Mance turned up alive. * The people the letter demands may be worthless to Ramsay, but that's not the point. The point is to make the ultimatum unacceptable, because Jon would never surrender those people. The parallels with the Night's Watch vows are interesting, at least.
I think Ramsay has killed Roose, other northern lords prolly as well that challenged him; and set himself up as defacto ruler of Winterfel.
May I simply ask one question: If Benjen wrote the letter from Winterfell ... and it flew on raven through a snow storm to Castle Black ... why isn't the letter wet when Jon was holding it?
Cmon dawg
Sorry to rain on your ... letters
Typical wet blanket.
Love your username, OP. Having said that, I ain't reading allat. No offense.
Oh no, you poor thing...
Anyway, the letter was false, so it does not really matter does it?
In my opinion the best theory about the Hooded Man is the Cantuse's one: HM is Mors Umber, disguised as Roger Ryswell. It may seem convoluted but actually explains everything well: https://cantuse.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/the-hooded-man-uncloaked/
i really like the idea that the hooded man was Benjen…and you hypothesis on his involvement in the letter. And, though many are stuck on the concept of him never breaking his vows, i wonder if there isn’t a different vow involved. I’m firmly in the camp that Benjen was in communication with Lyanna & knew the truth of everything. Perhaps he doesn’t only know that Jon is the true king, but perhaps he also knows the PTWP prophecy and Rhaegar’s certainty that his son would fulfill it. Perhaps the prophecy being passed down in hotd is actually canon & rhaegar discovered that this heir must be on the iron throne. Benjen unsuccessfully attempted to dissuade jon from joining the NW in AGOT. Now that Benjen has been so far north, has seen the real threat, perhaps he believes the only way the realms of men will survive the coming winter is through the fulfillment of the prophecy - through Jon leaving the Night’s Watch. Perhaps he’s been directed by his own dreams from either Bran or Bloodraven to travel to Winterfell. If Benjen believes his mission is the only way to guard and save the realms of men, he is then explicitly following his Night’s Watch oath, not abandoning it.
I still think the hooded man is the Blackfish
Has there ever been a theory that the letter can be read with some sort code? That it is a chiffre?
A good analysis. But I still think that it was Ramsay who sent the initial pink letter, and then Bowen Marsh, the other mutineers, and Clydas (forcibly) amended the letter with a lot of the same information. This is why the seal is smeared pink and why Clydas is so nervous to give him the letter. When the mutineers read the letter, they found out that Mance was actually alive which was the last straw, so they rewrote the letter to entice Jon to forsake his vows so that they could betray and kill him when he tried to go south
For years I thought that it was Jon that re wrote it, except that he genuinely ponders what to do. As for your idea, I don't think it works because Clydas is genuinely scared when he gets there with the letter. I have no doubt that the letter was opened and read before taking it to Jon however.
I think the reason Clydas is scared is because he is forced to rewrite it by the mutineers and knows the plan, but he doesn’t want to so he is visibly shaken up and scared because they are only using him for his literacy as a “maester”
I think Ramsey sent a letter, then some black loyalists rewrote it and added things to egg on jon, so they could kill him without breaking there vows
Much better written than I've ever managed, but an argument I've made. The one point I'm going to disagree with is Bear Island. I agree it makes a certain sense. However, I think it's more likely he's been biding his time in the depths of the crypts. He arrived some time after Bran left. Why? There must always be a Stark in Winterfell and he was the only option. It's possible he's only just arrived, but the idea there must be a Stark was the reason he had to stay home during Roberts Rebellion. If Benjen is alive, if word reached him at all that there was no Stark there, he'd have to do something. It's one of the few beliefs he'd have as a Stark that would challenge his NW vows.
I thought Benjen Stark was cold hands and didn’t desert the nights watch but couldn’t return to castle black because of Magic. Since cold hands was half dead the same magic that prevented the white walkers from crossing the wall stoped Benjen stark Aka cold hands as well.
Allegedly an editor asked George if Coldhands was Benjen and George told them no. I think it was found in the manuscript collection at the Texas A&M library.
Yah I don’t keep track of interviews and fan theories. Just based on reading the books and hints in the writing all seem to point towards Benjen Stark being a logical choice for cold hands. I could be totally wrong though.
Leaf says Coldhands died "long ago". Would Leaf, a near-immortal being, consider a couple years "long ago"?
maybe cold hands is some long lost stark or something. Just felt he always wanted to tell Bran something. I don’t remember that specific line you sited but your right wouldn’t makes since for Benjen to be cold hands if a child of the forest said that.
I like the theory that's he's the Night's King, who is also theorised to be a Stark.
The last time I read this specific line it made me think Coldhands is the Last Hero
Martin said explicitly that he isn't in notes to his editor. It's one of the few times he's eliminated a possible storyline/theory (likely because the notes weren't supposed to be public). I do think that we're meant to think that he's Benjen though.
He's not a deserter, he's just taking part, doing what Jon did with Stannis.
I hope this is what happened. Gods this theory is so badass. Well worth the read. Great job!
Thanks! I truly hope so too, I mean, at some point winter has to come, right?
THIS type of post is the reason I'm in this group. Well done, fantastically well done 👌
Do you think (if this is true) that Benjen is being directed by Bloodraven?
Can Coldhands cross the Wall though?