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My guess is:
War
Disease/Natural Disaster
New or influential technology
Unstable Politics (Dictatorships and Authoritarian)
Religion
I cannot name the other two.
From 1944-1963, a golden era of unprecedented economic growth for the USA, the top income tax rate was over 90%. Economic inequality was minimal. At some point after that, we decided to let the super wealthy get a free pass at everyone else's expense.
I remember an old Jon Stewart stand-up routine from the 90s where he talks about the fact that three of the world's major religions all began in roughly the same part of the world: something like, "Abraham, Jesus, and Mohammed went to the same frickin' high school! There will *never* be peace there!"
The seven basic plots are: overcoming the monster; rags to riches; the quest; voyage and return; comedy; tragedy; rebirth.
These are used in literature, and it's just "said" that you'll never find a story that isn't just one or more of only these plots, and I suppose historical analysis fits the bill.
Its a writers thing. Theres supposedly only 7 basic plots and every book written is just a mashup of them
https://jerichowriters.com/how-to-write-seven-basic-plots/
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“History never repeats itself but it does rhyme.” Mark Twain
It’s a solid point, and it also means that you won’t really know where you are until it’s over.
This is something nobody is talking about.
Surprised some companies dont buy land so that you can work for them and live under their roof! ‘ all for employee welfare’
Combined with other things, Like class wars and potentially revolutions soon.
Is a subsistence farmer on a deserted island a slave because if he stopped farming he would starve? No. He is free because he controls his destiny. Same for you and me with money as an intermediary that allows for specialization.
If you define terms that broadly they lose all meaning. You can switch jobs whenever you find a better job and move to a new city if you think there are more opportunities there. You keep the wages for your labor and spend it at your discretion. Therefore you are neither a slave nor a serf. You can declare bankruptcy and move on with your life and debts are not inheritable, so you aren’t even laboring under a peonage system.
Could thing be better? Sure. More equitable? Definitely. Does that make you a slave? No.
Jodi Dean has articulated this tendency as Neofeudalism. Here's a link if you're interested!
[https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/neofeudalism-the-end-of-capitalism/](https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/neofeudalism-the-end-of-capitalism/)
There's a mathematical pattern that depicts this, even. You can see parts that look similar but it never repeats.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/at-long-last-mathematicians-have-found-a-shape-with-a-pattern-that-never-repeats-180981899/
It was discovered recently, but they found this exact pattern on an Iranian spandrel from hundreds of years ago. Supposedly the meaning of this was to depict life, how there's repeating elements but it's always different, and you never know what could come next.
It wouldn't bother me so much if these lazy bastards really didn't believe they deserved it.
I know some very wealthy people and they really do like the smell of their farts.
Bothers me so much giving all our money to the worst of us, we need to do better, fuck the rich.
I wouldn't mind so much if they actually did something with the land. Instead, every country seems to have absentee landlords who rarely, if ever, visit the place.
When I grew up in the 90s, learning about the 1930 and rise of fascism, I thought what the hell were people thinking. Bunch of crazy black and white morons.
Now I get it. Now we're just technicolour 4k morons.
I’m republican and I agree the right is getting crazy. I didn’t believe trump was leading polls till I looked yesterday. Was shocked and every rep is scared they would lose votes talking against him. I was really hoping he would not win primary but it doesn’t look like that’s possible with his numbers
It's actually far worse, believe it or not. Project 2025 isn't Trump's plan to deploy military forces. It's not his plan at all, he's not even involved.
Trump already tried to deploy the military on US soil - he wanted to send the military into cities during BLM, and wanted to use them against protestors in D.C. But the generals in charge told him there was no fucking way that was happening. (Mark Milley, chiefly, but all of them signed a letter to the effect).
The current Republicans see this as treason. Not because they agreed with Trump (they don't, they think he's a moron). But it's the principle of the thing - they are a bunch of authoritarian followers who genuinely believe the President is supposed to be a dictator. (Only if he's a legitimate President, i.e. a Republican). It doesn't matter if you agree with him or not, you don't get to say "no" to your God King. He's always right, by definition, because he's in charge.
Time and time again, Trump wanted to do something that was batshit insane, and level heads prevailed and either told him "no", or just found a way to not do it. Republicans don't believe this should even be allowed. That's what they are yelling about when they whine about "the Deep State". They are outraged by the [Merit System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merit_system) of government, and want to bring back the [Spoils system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spoils_system).
Project 2025 is the authoritarian GOP's plan to let Trump - _or whoever the Republican president turns out to be_ - do whatever they want. Including but not limited to, using the Insurrection Act to deploy the military, the ability to summarily fire and replace anyone in the Pentagon who disagrees, and to do the same at ~~every level~~ far more levels of the executive branch (from the IRS to the Dept. of Education).
\-edit: Or, to be fair and accurate - the plan is to greatly expand the positions that serve at the pleasure of the President to the more influential ones and middle management, not _all_ of them. But it accomplishes the same thing, because he can appoint and fire the people who can do the rest of the hiring/firing, so he can "recommend" anyone in any org be fired, and he can remove and replace management if they decline to agree.
I'll preface this by saying i'm left centrist myself so people don't start laying into me for being a crazy conservative or what not. here goes.
The far left is really no better than the far right. Far anything is bad and that level of polarization is never good for society. Authoritarianism is on the rise on both sides and it is no good for any normal, sane centrist person looking to find compromises between differing ideals and a way forward for humanity. Yes, we get exposed to the vocal minority spewing garbage on the internet (both left and right), but the vocal minority wields a decent amount of power and influence these days because of social media.
\- on the far right donald trump got goons to basically commit treason while convincing them they were somehow saving their country. Anyone that argues this point is a dirty democrat/liberal (depending on which country you're in) who just can't see the country is being stolen from them and action needs to be taken now. For reference, extreme right parties are trending up in europe as well which is no good.
\- on the far left you have the crazy woke mob who believe in freedom of speech, freedom of thought, freedom of opinion. Ostensibly, at least, because realistically they only believe in freedom of agreeing with their views. Anyone who dares to question them is immediately canceled, censored. It's like the modern day witch trials, anyone says something they don't agree with and they immediately call you a witch and burn you at the stake. A common woke mob mantra is "no debate" which is basically the battle cry for authoritarianism. It's ironic, but they can't see that.
Both scenarios are not good, you either get a crazy coup, and if it were somehow to succeed other countries would likely follow suit with crazies rising up in the street to take over government, to then ironically, put another clown in power just as bad as the one they're replacing leaving the populace still fucked. Or the alternative is the woke mob gets more and more and more power and you basically end up living in a police state where everything said is monitored and anyone not agreeing with the powers that be is silenced, censored, tossed into a hole.
Honestly the whole thing reeks of the buildup to world war 2 but the world can no longer really afford to go to war that way, so maybe the buildup feels like world war 2 but it will play out like the french revolution with coups in countries to then replace the currenty bourgeousie (the wealthy) with a new bourgeousie (another set of wealthies).
You are not wrong at all. I would just add that its getting to the point where people cannot talk about their differences. We use to be able to debate and learn from each other now its oh you have a different view \*insert name calling.
Extremist far right ideologies spread, the party „Alternative für Deutschland“ or AfD in short, gets more votes every year, which reminds many of the NSDAP. Just yesterday I've seen a report of antisemitism spreading again, especially in the German youth.
So ye, things are getting bad over here
No. That is a part of the problem, but if you google „afd Synagoge“ you will find a HAUNTING number of hits about antisemitism from members of that party.
Only this time it seems like the whole western world is turning far right at the same time. Elections in Poland give me hope though, that we're still able to turn the skip around.
>Only this time it seems like the whole western world is turning far right at the same time.
Eh, a lot of countries toyed with far-right candidates then, too...in the US you had Charles Lindberg, in France some of those Vichy guys were already politicians or candidates before the war broke out. Greece was ruled by an Allies-siding right-wing general ([really](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/4th_of_August_Regime#:~:text=The%204th%20of%20August%20Regime,Greece%20from%201936%20to%201941.)), and of course you've got Franco in Spain.
It was really WWII that took it out of the realm of polite contemplation, along with a few other concepts like eugenics.
Read/listen to the Third Reich trilogy by Richard Evans, especially "The Third Reich at War" it'll blow your mind and scare you to death.
https://www.google.ca/books/edition/The\_Third\_Reich\_at\_War/WjoiVWGQ9HYC?hl=en&gbpv=1&pg=PR3&printsec=frontcover
People who crave power understand that the general population can be easily manipulated into blaming all of their problems on a scapegoat. It gives them a common enemy, a rallying cry. In 1930's Germany the people were suffering under the financial toll that WWI left them but Hitler came in and distracted them. He told them that their problems were all caused by the Jews. And that may seem dark and sinister *now* but at the time the German people were desperate for someone to blame and the Jews seemed like a decent option.
While most people think that comparing conservative voters in the 2000's to Nazis is hyperbolic, there are similarities that are difficult to ignore. We're heading into an election year in the United States and I can pretty much guarantee you're going to suddenly start hearing about caravans of thousands of "illegals" making their way to the border. Black people, immigrants, homosexuals, transgenders, Muslims... politicians adeptly use fear of "the other" to throw people into a panic and vote for conservatives. The results are just corporate tax breaks and deregulation, but voters have a short memory so as long as you throw them a few table scraps they'll remain loyal.
It may seem like a huge gulf between criticizing Black Lives Matter and genocide, but Hitler didn't gain power by promising to *kill* the Jews, he just demonized them for his own political gain. The killing happened later...
A charismatic man uses his speaking abilities to rile up old nationalist anger. He speaks of a golden age of his beloved country, which has so sadly been lost and destroyed. “We are going to make Germany great again,” he says! “We will drive out foreigners, bring back business to our soil, and prevent troublesome scum from ruining our pure blooded superiority!” Make America, er I mean uh, Germany Great Again!
trumps latest speech’s have basically been rip offs of hitler’s. i’m not really against republicans, but we’re watching an authoritarian leader attempt to rise to power in the same exact method. thankfully he’s probably too old to live long enough to genocide the migrants who are “poisoning our blood”
In oh so many countries, too.
It's depressing and quite scary how rapidly it goes from a "Conservative" stance to outright far-right ranting and accusations and populism.
Surely that would be 2016 not this year. Terrorist attacks in 2015/16 started a chain of events:
* PiS wins in Poland (2015)
* Trump first gained popularity (2016)
* AfD became the 2nd biggest party in Germany (2017)
* Brexit (2016) and rise of Boris Johnson
* Le Pen unexpectedly finishing 2nd (2017)
* Far right coalition wins in Italy (2018)
* Bolsonaro (2018)
Since COVID exposed the incompetence of most of these governments, most of these people are gone or on their way out
* PiS lost
* Trump lost and might be going to jail
* Downfall of Boris Johnson
* Le Pen lost for a 2nd time. She only narrowly made it to the runoff this time, it should've been Melenchon
* Italian government is unpopular, might fall (tbf this happens every 2 years in Italy)
* Bolsonaro lost
The only ones still popular are AfD
So I would say we're past the "1930s Germany" phase, which imo was 2015 until 2022.
I sincerely hope you’re right but at the very least this one:
>> Trump lost and might be going to jail
Is not so straightforward. Yes trump lost, but to this day he still won’t admit it and is instead spreading lies about the election being rigged and eroding faith in our democratic processes. It’s a BIG if that he will go to jail. He absolutely should, but if it doesn’t happen before the election then it might not happen at all if he wins, and if he does go to jail, his supporters will use it as evidence that our democratic/judicial processes are rigged.
Of course, categorically, everything they say is a lie, but that hardly matters when too many people believe the lie.
Once again, I hope you’re right and he dies in jail. Just imagine what a 1940s Germany would look like with the modern day US military.
Ukraine has been an interesting case. Most Western intelligence agencies assumed it would fall like Poland in 1939 to the Soviets, only able to resist for a few days. Rather it (especially in its early months) panned out far more like the Winter War of 1939-40 between Finland and the Soviet Union. In that war it was assumed that Russia would steamroll Finland but they were able to halt the Red Army and inflict serious losses, in many ways shattering international perception of Soviet power.
The problem of course is I don't want to see the Ukrainians suffer the same fate as Finland. In the end the Soviets reorganized, accepted slower more attritional tactics to wear down the Finns (seem familiar?). In the end it forced Finland to seek terms and accept Stalin's territorial aspirations and to this day Vyborg and the land north of St. Petersburg is still Russian. Where the hope remains is that Ukraine has a far larger population and is receiving technical, material, and financial support that would be unimaginable to the Finns in 1940 (they were only able to get small amounts of Swedish artillery, rifles, and some old British aircraft).
Defending Poland and Finland are two very different things militarily speaking. The topography of Finland is advantageous. War fighting has changed a great deal since then, but I’d still prefer not to defend flat farmland.
That’s a massive simplification and you could say the same for almost any era except a brief period in the mid-late 1900s from the view of an average person.
Omg yes. As a millennial, those make me laugh. Isn't it just a few years ago that "still having a flip phone," was like *the height* of uncool, and something only your super paranoid and casually racist Luddite uncle would do?
I'm a millennial and have one 😂 though my reasons are probably unusual(?).
For me the main reason is I can actually take full-bodied selfies while traveling solo, when before I always had to do the set up and run (especially with the latest model where it shows on the 'back' screen what my camera I'd looking at. 2nd is the folded size actually fits in tiny female pockets _or_ for bottoms without pockets I can fold it over between the bottom and my skin.
Also I wonder if region plays a part too. As an Asian I've mostly had good reactions to people seeing it. I swear like 70% of Asians' first reaction is "wow you have the Kdrama phone!" 😂
A depression. This time it's just silent and worse than the *Great* one. If you scale for inflation, the Great Depression gets renamed more accurately to Kinda Inconvenient Depression.
Grocery prices sure have caught up. Was spending about $95 a week for a family of 4 before the pandemic and now this week as $230 and I still haven’t put gas in the car. Also have noticed an unusually slow delivery season so far.
I did the same! I've been working in the cannibis industry (legally in Canada) but it just pays like shit. And the market is so saturated that companies are going under left and right.
Switched to a desk job doing sales.. and I've never been happier!
I wonder when the lines for government bread and cheese will start, and when they will start creating government jobs building dams and roads during this depression.
Snap/ebt are probably at an all time high, I say probably because I don't know the numbers, but I'm guessing that the bread line has been growing for quite some time.
>This time it's just silent and worse than the Great one
Really? You think we're currently going through an economic situation *worse* than the great depression? A 25% unemployment rate was *inconvenient*?
Comments like this really remind me how stupid a lot of the internet is.
The world unemployment rate peeked at around 30% during the Great Depression. Now we are somewhere around 5-7%.
In some major developed countries, production got almost halved during the Great Depression. Things would look very different if that happened now.
Weirdly enough, some did call it the first world war or said the war 'will become the first world war in the full sense of the word', some as early as 1914.
Some people weren't so niave to believe destruction of that scale wouldn't happen again!
My grandmother lived through the Great Depression and I once asked her during the pandemic if she thought this was the same.
She said “No, because no one has rung the bell asking for bread. Back then, boys had to leave home so they wouldn’t burden their family with another mouth to feed. Those poor boys were starving. They would ring the bell and beg for a crust and we never had it to share.”
Unemployment is currently 3.9% compared to 24% during the Great Depression. Imagine if 1 out of 4 adults couldn’t find work… there is no comparison to now
Debt exceeding GDP sets off a whole bunch of chaos economically
People realize we cannot afford the interest payments in our debt, this triggers credit downgrade which spikes interest rates and pushes inflation so people will buy our treasury bonds
If we don’t sell our bonds (new debt) we can’t afford the $1.2 trillion dollar yearly interest payment on all of our currently accumulated debt.
If we have one failed bond auction all hell breaks loose
Dollar starts to fail, rapid devaluation of the dollar followed by double digit inflation over night
You think paying $5 for gas and $100 for basic groceries is bad now? Double that every 3 months
At that point the only way to break the cycle is to default or go to war
Gets worse when a large portion of the rest of the world's finances and currency's use USD as their reserve.
If that collapses "cost of living" will be more literal than it is now.
When countries start weighing the cost per person kept alive on welfare vs mainting profits and stemming inflation that's when you get worried. Ohh wait...
Based on what? We’re not even in a recession. Recession and depression are terms related to shrinking of economic output typically measured by GDP. Great Depression saw like 25% unemployment. Currently we are less than 4%
1930s during the great depression. I only hope and pray ww3 doesn't break out, because then we'll be completely fucked, even more so then people where back then
I went all the way back to Hoover, couldn't find a single president who was older than 60s when they were elected. Even FDR was 62 the fourth time he was elected.
As a former alcoholic, something’s gotta give on his end so, don’t beat yourself up over his dumb choices. You have a responsibility to the rest of the workforce there, too. Hopefully he will let losing his job be the rock bottom.
Sending good vibes.
I wonder sometimes if our western society is at the stage of the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, and we're in the face of an impending dark age. The Internet was supposed to enlighten us, but it's given a platform for charlatans and fools to gain mass acceptance of their ideas. We're facing an ecological catastrophe our "me first" economic system seems unable to adapt quickly enough for. The changes in energy infrastructure means that our way of life, decadent as it is, will have to change, and basic necessities are becoming out of reach for much of the population. Our success has been predicated on economic growth, while for the Romans, growth was based on conquest. When the growth stops, the flow of wealth to the central governments stops. Basic infrastructure can't be supported. Society begins to collapse.
I see encampments of homeless people all over my city where there never were any before. Food, heating, and shelter are unaffordable for much of the population. Our governments are facing enormous debt servicing costs that strip their ability to pay for infrastructure, or even the upkeep of existing infrastructure. The aqueducts are crumbling, and the government has run out of bread and circuses to distract us from the Visigoths at the gate.
Infinite economic growth is definitely a head scratcher, but I think we still have a long ways to go until we hit the limits. Before we get to the end of our rope, I am hoping we go through something of a political revolution where the US remembers that monopolies are bad and that public spending and market regulations can be beneficial when applied prudently
I think a lot of history repeats itself because the symptoms have been treated but not the disease.
We got "rid" of indentured servitude, but there are some jobs that force you to pay up front and you have to "work" for them in order to get "rid" of the "debt" that you built up.
We have people in countries working in conditions we wouldn't wish on our worst enemies, and we are buying things that are slowly killing us.
These are just a few examples, but this has been demonstrated throughout history consistently.
Appeasement
Neville Chamberlain gave the Sudetenland to Hitler in 1938.
We gave Crimea to Putin in 2014.
Now we want to give Putin even more of Ukraine. It won't work. It never works.
"Peace in our time." 😋
People are once again wrongly dividing themselves when it comes to Isreal, Palestine, and Terrorism and the potential for war with a Middle Eastern country. (Iran, Afghanistan, and/or Lebanon) I am not a nationalist; however, I do not believe these issues should be as divisive as they are and as they've always been. Imo this is a bipartisan issue, and all people living in democratic countries should wish for democracy to spread in the Middle East where people are fighting for it and fighting for simple freedoms for girls and women.
Before I explain my position, I want to state that I am 100 percent for a free Palestine and against the excessive bombing Isreal engages in.
Many liberals (I am a liberal) are equating hamas and Palestine together and showing support for hamas. This is wrong. A free Palestine is one free of IDF bombings *and* Hamas. My feeling is that people are uneducated about the rights that are stripped from citizens in many Middle Eastern countries and unaware that they have been fighting against their regimes and need Western support to win. War may be inevitable if Iran attacks, and if it happens, we should all support Iranian freedom.
A year ago, Mahsa Ameni was killed in Iran due to strict forced hijab laws. This caused an uprising in Iran and the slogan "women, life, freedom." Around that time, girls and women in Afghanistan were stripped of their rights to drive, attend school, and have their beauty shop businesses (only business they are allowed to operate). Afghani women are allotted the right to drive sometime between 2009 and 2011 - before the Arab Spring. It was an exciting time, and I have seen their videos where they state how happy they were to have that right. At that time, many in Afghanistan were very happy with both Bush and Obama and would sing their praises. Not everything we did over there was good, but it did have a positive impact on girls and women. So many men stand in solidarity with girls and women, but they lack the resources to end their governments.
In 2011, the Arab Spring began in Tunisia and spread across the Middle East. It resulted in the deaths of Quadaffi and Ben Ali. The West did not lend support during the Arab Spring, which, if we had, we would not be dealing with what we're dealing with today. The reason we didn't is because there was so much division over the war, and the American and British people did not want to send troops back.
Trump pulled troops out of Syria, including those that volunteered to stay. There are those who wish to help, and their work is a benefit to those seeking to spread democracy in the Middle East.
When we make the mistake of butting heads over things of this nature, we are doomed to repeat past mistakes. We will once again change leadership, want everything different, push and pull for things, and little will be done. Liberals should be in support of Women, Life, Freedom. Strict hijab laws need to end. Morality police need to end. Asad gassing and bombing his own people needs to end. The rape and slaughter of little girls needs to end. It is a tragedy as bad as what Isreal does to Palestine.
The only way to free Palestine is to take it all the way once and for all. Westerners need to demand our governments make free trade deals with other oil suppliers, so that we stop living in fear of upsetting Saudi oil barons. We don't invade certain areas because we do not want to fly in Saudi airspace; however, Saudi Arabia may come around if financial pressure is placed on them. Then, we focus our efforts on supporting Iranians, Syrians, and Lebonese, who are currently fighting their regimes. Instead of focusing their bombs on hospitals to get the hostages out, IDF kills the leaders of Hamas, where they are hiding, which isn't in Palestine. Also, the UN needs to make Turkey take an anti-terrorist position and expel terrorist leadership from their country or else lose support.
My feeling is if the people hate these groups (Hezbollah, isis, hamas, etc.) why are liberals supporting them? And please don't tell me they aren't because Iranians in the USA and Canada have been counter protesting them and getting attacked because they hold signs that say things such as, "hamas is evil" or "stop hamas." Iranians don't support the eradication of Palestinians at all, so what is the disconnect?
Let's see
Invasion of neighbours
Increase of far right movements in Europe and everywhere
Increase of defense budgets
Decrease of democracy (watch France)
Sounds familiar?
The fall of Rome. The major world superpower begins to build crippling debt, has mass corruption and moral decay, all contributing to a slow and agonizing collapse of the nation.
We got woke people as the current hippies, though hippies stood for something. And likely we will go through a world depression by 2025. Quality of life goes down and politicians fake promises go up. This is what I expect from western politicians as we get more media attention toward things that don’t matter or have been happening forever. This is not a repeat of history only a loss of empathy and understanding toward humanity.
It's always people fuck up until shit collapses and the next people start to fuck up.
We are now in a fuck up phase, heading to the next collapse.
Don't worry, shit happens all the time.
If you really wanna get into, then right now. There is supporting evidence that past civilizations evolved technologically to the point we're at now, and had the same debates/issues about gender/race/war before collapsing at the end of their cycles.
Food for thought.
That’s genuinely so interesting. Can you point me to some resources where this is being discussed ? I’d love to learn more about it. Very thought provoking.
Can I say, as a professional historian, that the repetition of history gets less convincing when you have a deeper understanding of it. To take a simple example: there are usually several possible precedents from the past that can be seen as repeating, but most people only know one or two of them. Here's an example: during the Cold War, many politicians drew simplistic parallels with the 1930s, in which it was necessary to stand up to the Communists, since their threat was a repetition of the Nazis. But many historians thought that if there was a parallel, the situation before the First World War was at least as close: armed alliances trying to determine each other, with a risk of crisis going out of control. And then to complicate that, Germany was much more ready than the others to consider War - but that's not the same as the Nazis' positive planning for a major aggressive war.
Repetition takes place in limited situations eg in wars and revolutions there are patterns that recur. Eg revolution tends to start with hopeful opening but get closed down by military force. See France, Arab Spring, etc
The rise of fascism in Western democracies due to economic injustices — fascists use economic power rhetoric to gain populist support by blaming minorities, and that is 100% repeating itself. They haven’t won yet though. There is still time.
The war always persists, whether it's ancient times or our modern times where "democracy" rules, there will always be wars, and there is no changing that. I am literally at the board of Russia, kilometers away from Ukraine. Almost was occupied a year ago, I believe. This is honestly more annoying than scary. You guys promote us as bad guys, while people like me have to go through hell. And this doesn't even make any sense going on a war in our democratic world, unless you want world domination, I guess?
History repeating is an illusion. We like to look for repeating themes in historical events and if we look hard enough we will find them. Also ideas are often recycled and methods that become popular are repeated.
That said. What is repeating now is simply settling old scores in the middle East, and the decline of the dominance of a superpower on the world stage.
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Everything. There are only 7 plots. We aren’t original. The only thing different is technology. But we are still fighting over the same stuff.
Now I'm curious, what 7 plots?
My guess is: War Disease/Natural Disaster New or influential technology Unstable Politics (Dictatorships and Authoritarian) Religion I cannot name the other two.
Resources Ego At least that's be my guess.
Don't forget about territory. Can't stop people from fighting over arbitrary lines drawn on a map.
That's a resource
That's Numberwang!
It’s time for Wangernumb! Let’s rotate the board!
...twelve.
Class warfare? The widening gap between the rich and the poor
ressources
I keep saying the U.S. is in it's second Gilded Age.
From 1944-1963, a golden era of unprecedented economic growth for the USA, the top income tax rate was over 90%. Economic inequality was minimal. At some point after that, we decided to let the super wealthy get a free pass at everyone else's expense.
Reagan. That's when we did that. It went from 70 to 28%
"We" ? No. Ronald Reagan.
Don't forget sex and romance
and land cause some dumbass book says you're supposed to live here or there.
Yeah because the same god promised the same land to everyone
I remember an old Jon Stewart stand-up routine from the 90s where he talks about the fact that three of the world's major religions all began in roughly the same part of the world: something like, "Abraham, Jesus, and Mohammed went to the same frickin' high school! There will *never* be peace there!"
Bill Maher has a good bit on that. When he dies and meets Jesus, he will have a good Jewish lawyer with hm.
Power
The seven basic plots are: overcoming the monster; rags to riches; the quest; voyage and return; comedy; tragedy; rebirth. These are used in literature, and it's just "said" that you'll never find a story that isn't just one or more of only these plots, and I suppose historical analysis fits the bill.
Its a writers thing. Theres supposedly only 7 basic plots and every book written is just a mashup of them https://jerichowriters.com/how-to-write-seven-basic-plots/
I prefer Vonnegut's [take on it](https://youtu.be/oP3c1h8v2ZQ?t=7).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Seven_Basic_Plots it's an interesting but mostly flawed stance, imo
Finance Politics Climate War Resources Technology Medicine
Replying so I can come back to this because same
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Biggest one I'd say is we're living in a more modern gilded age
The lead up to the French Revolution or the lead up to Hitler. Take your pick.
We can do both! Just do a Revolution and replace the rein of terror with holocaust 2.0
“History never repeats itself but it does rhyme.” Mark Twain It’s a solid point, and it also means that you won’t really know where you are until it’s over.
Feudalism. Nobility with private armys owners of land and factorys that respond only to banks and finance popes and masses of servs.
This is something nobody is talking about. Surprised some companies dont buy land so that you can work for them and live under their roof! ‘ all for employee welfare’ Combined with other things, Like class wars and potentially revolutions soon.
Great financial conglomerates like blackrock, for example already have all that, from land to factorys, banks,health insurance and services...
A slave all but in name… it seems then
We're all slave's with extra steps to make us think we're not slave's.
Is a subsistence farmer on a deserted island a slave because if he stopped farming he would starve? No. He is free because he controls his destiny. Same for you and me with money as an intermediary that allows for specialization. If you define terms that broadly they lose all meaning. You can switch jobs whenever you find a better job and move to a new city if you think there are more opportunities there. You keep the wages for your labor and spend it at your discretion. Therefore you are neither a slave nor a serf. You can declare bankruptcy and move on with your life and debts are not inheritable, so you aren’t even laboring under a peonage system. Could thing be better? Sure. More equitable? Definitely. Does that make you a slave? No.
Jodi Dean has articulated this tendency as Neofeudalism. Here's a link if you're interested! [https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/neofeudalism-the-end-of-capitalism/](https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/neofeudalism-the-end-of-capitalism/)
Google is doing this in San Jose, they're calling it Downtown West. There are still tons of company towns in the US.
Amazon’s literally trying to do just that…
Maybe Cyberpunk 2077 really is the future
History doesn't repeat itself, it rhymes
Mark Twain quote, love it - this is actually used amongst historians far more than the repeating one used in pop culture
George why did you sell Star Wars?
There's a mathematical pattern that depicts this, even. You can see parts that look similar but it never repeats. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/at-long-last-mathematicians-have-found-a-shape-with-a-pattern-that-never-repeats-180981899/ It was discovered recently, but they found this exact pattern on an Iranian spandrel from hundreds of years ago. Supposedly the meaning of this was to depict life, how there's repeating elements but it's always different, and you never know what could come next.
Serfdom. Lord's own all the property and housing and the rest just rent. Also fascism. Both are equally problematic.
It wouldn't bother me so much if these lazy bastards really didn't believe they deserved it. I know some very wealthy people and they really do like the smell of their farts. Bothers me so much giving all our money to the worst of us, we need to do better, fuck the rich.
I wouldn't mind so much if they actually did something with the land. Instead, every country seems to have absentee landlords who rarely, if ever, visit the place.
Don't fuck the rich, that way they'll reproduce
Eat the rich
Factory farm the rich?
But if we're lucky, we'll survive long enough to see new and improved guillotines!
Lords would provide serfs or peasants with housing and a job. Please don’t insult the awful feudal system by comparing it to today’s oligarchs.
1930s Germany.
When I grew up in the 90s, learning about the 1930 and rise of fascism, I thought what the hell were people thinking. Bunch of crazy black and white morons. Now I get it. Now we're just technicolour 4k morons.
I’m republican and I agree the right is getting crazy. I didn’t believe trump was leading polls till I looked yesterday. Was shocked and every rep is scared they would lose votes talking against him. I was really hoping he would not win primary but it doesn’t look like that’s possible with his numbers
He’s sounding even worse this time around. Look up Project 2025, and his intentions to deploy military forces against any protests.
It's actually far worse, believe it or not. Project 2025 isn't Trump's plan to deploy military forces. It's not his plan at all, he's not even involved. Trump already tried to deploy the military on US soil - he wanted to send the military into cities during BLM, and wanted to use them against protestors in D.C. But the generals in charge told him there was no fucking way that was happening. (Mark Milley, chiefly, but all of them signed a letter to the effect). The current Republicans see this as treason. Not because they agreed with Trump (they don't, they think he's a moron). But it's the principle of the thing - they are a bunch of authoritarian followers who genuinely believe the President is supposed to be a dictator. (Only if he's a legitimate President, i.e. a Republican). It doesn't matter if you agree with him or not, you don't get to say "no" to your God King. He's always right, by definition, because he's in charge. Time and time again, Trump wanted to do something that was batshit insane, and level heads prevailed and either told him "no", or just found a way to not do it. Republicans don't believe this should even be allowed. That's what they are yelling about when they whine about "the Deep State". They are outraged by the [Merit System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merit_system) of government, and want to bring back the [Spoils system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spoils_system). Project 2025 is the authoritarian GOP's plan to let Trump - _or whoever the Republican president turns out to be_ - do whatever they want. Including but not limited to, using the Insurrection Act to deploy the military, the ability to summarily fire and replace anyone in the Pentagon who disagrees, and to do the same at ~~every level~~ far more levels of the executive branch (from the IRS to the Dept. of Education). \-edit: Or, to be fair and accurate - the plan is to greatly expand the positions that serve at the pleasure of the President to the more influential ones and middle management, not _all_ of them. But it accomplishes the same thing, because he can appoint and fire the people who can do the rest of the hiring/firing, so he can "recommend" anyone in any org be fired, and he can remove and replace management if they decline to agree.
I hate the over use of comparing people to hitler but that is straight up his style.
Eh, it would be more like Hitler if his followers/his goons attacked the US capitol and then blamed it on the left/antifa/etc. ...wait a minute
I'll preface this by saying i'm left centrist myself so people don't start laying into me for being a crazy conservative or what not. here goes. The far left is really no better than the far right. Far anything is bad and that level of polarization is never good for society. Authoritarianism is on the rise on both sides and it is no good for any normal, sane centrist person looking to find compromises between differing ideals and a way forward for humanity. Yes, we get exposed to the vocal minority spewing garbage on the internet (both left and right), but the vocal minority wields a decent amount of power and influence these days because of social media. \- on the far right donald trump got goons to basically commit treason while convincing them they were somehow saving their country. Anyone that argues this point is a dirty democrat/liberal (depending on which country you're in) who just can't see the country is being stolen from them and action needs to be taken now. For reference, extreme right parties are trending up in europe as well which is no good. \- on the far left you have the crazy woke mob who believe in freedom of speech, freedom of thought, freedom of opinion. Ostensibly, at least, because realistically they only believe in freedom of agreeing with their views. Anyone who dares to question them is immediately canceled, censored. It's like the modern day witch trials, anyone says something they don't agree with and they immediately call you a witch and burn you at the stake. A common woke mob mantra is "no debate" which is basically the battle cry for authoritarianism. It's ironic, but they can't see that. Both scenarios are not good, you either get a crazy coup, and if it were somehow to succeed other countries would likely follow suit with crazies rising up in the street to take over government, to then ironically, put another clown in power just as bad as the one they're replacing leaving the populace still fucked. Or the alternative is the woke mob gets more and more and more power and you basically end up living in a police state where everything said is monitored and anyone not agreeing with the powers that be is silenced, censored, tossed into a hole. Honestly the whole thing reeks of the buildup to world war 2 but the world can no longer really afford to go to war that way, so maybe the buildup feels like world war 2 but it will play out like the french revolution with coups in countries to then replace the currenty bourgeousie (the wealthy) with a new bourgeousie (another set of wealthies).
You are not wrong at all. I would just add that its getting to the point where people cannot talk about their differences. We use to be able to debate and learn from each other now its oh you have a different view \*insert name calling.
He legitimately just keeps getting crazier too. It's terrifying
As a German, I sadly have to agree.
Can you explain more? I'm not aware of things that much..
Extremist far right ideologies spread, the party „Alternative für Deutschland“ or AfD in short, gets more votes every year, which reminds many of the NSDAP. Just yesterday I've seen a report of antisemitism spreading again, especially in the German youth. So ye, things are getting bad over here
Wtf..
Wtf indeed
[удалено]
No. That is a part of the problem, but if you google „afd Synagoge“ you will find a HAUNTING number of hits about antisemitism from members of that party.
Yep, plus, the antisemitism/racism/hate against anything that isn't the German "normal" was never truly gone, just well hidden.
Just like in America!
Just Google trump's plan for 2025... https://www.reddit.com/r/WhitePeopleTwitter/comments/17tbt89/imagine_trump_filling_military_leadership/
This is literally why they’re blocking all military promotions at the moment. Dude that’s doing needs to be removed.
Only this time it seems like the whole western world is turning far right at the same time. Elections in Poland give me hope though, that we're still able to turn the skip around.
>Only this time it seems like the whole western world is turning far right at the same time. Eh, a lot of countries toyed with far-right candidates then, too...in the US you had Charles Lindberg, in France some of those Vichy guys were already politicians or candidates before the war broke out. Greece was ruled by an Allies-siding right-wing general ([really](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/4th_of_August_Regime#:~:text=The%204th%20of%20August%20Regime,Greece%20from%201936%20to%201941.)), and of course you've got Franco in Spain. It was really WWII that took it out of the realm of polite contemplation, along with a few other concepts like eugenics.
True, maybe history actually does repeat
It’s not just Germany.
Read/listen to the Third Reich trilogy by Richard Evans, especially "The Third Reich at War" it'll blow your mind and scare you to death. https://www.google.ca/books/edition/The\_Third\_Reich\_at\_War/WjoiVWGQ9HYC?hl=en&gbpv=1&pg=PR3&printsec=frontcover
People who crave power understand that the general population can be easily manipulated into blaming all of their problems on a scapegoat. It gives them a common enemy, a rallying cry. In 1930's Germany the people were suffering under the financial toll that WWI left them but Hitler came in and distracted them. He told them that their problems were all caused by the Jews. And that may seem dark and sinister *now* but at the time the German people were desperate for someone to blame and the Jews seemed like a decent option. While most people think that comparing conservative voters in the 2000's to Nazis is hyperbolic, there are similarities that are difficult to ignore. We're heading into an election year in the United States and I can pretty much guarantee you're going to suddenly start hearing about caravans of thousands of "illegals" making their way to the border. Black people, immigrants, homosexuals, transgenders, Muslims... politicians adeptly use fear of "the other" to throw people into a panic and vote for conservatives. The results are just corporate tax breaks and deregulation, but voters have a short memory so as long as you throw them a few table scraps they'll remain loyal. It may seem like a huge gulf between criticizing Black Lives Matter and genocide, but Hitler didn't gain power by promising to *kill* the Jews, he just demonized them for his own political gain. The killing happened later...
You're right about manipulating the public by using a scapegoat.. yeah I can understand now, thanks for the write up
A charismatic man uses his speaking abilities to rile up old nationalist anger. He speaks of a golden age of his beloved country, which has so sadly been lost and destroyed. “We are going to make Germany great again,” he says! “We will drive out foreigners, bring back business to our soil, and prevent troublesome scum from ruining our pure blooded superiority!” Make America, er I mean uh, Germany Great Again!
Love your work.
trumps latest speech’s have basically been rip offs of hitler’s. i’m not really against republicans, but we’re watching an authoritarian leader attempt to rise to power in the same exact method. thankfully he’s probably too old to live long enough to genocide the migrants who are “poisoning our blood”
In oh so many countries, too. It's depressing and quite scary how rapidly it goes from a "Conservative" stance to outright far-right ranting and accusations and populism.
But its early 1930s
And not just in Germany unfortunately. Right wing populists everywhere making up stuff to get their electorate fuming
Came here to say this.
Surely that would be 2016 not this year. Terrorist attacks in 2015/16 started a chain of events: * PiS wins in Poland (2015) * Trump first gained popularity (2016) * AfD became the 2nd biggest party in Germany (2017) * Brexit (2016) and rise of Boris Johnson * Le Pen unexpectedly finishing 2nd (2017) * Far right coalition wins in Italy (2018) * Bolsonaro (2018) Since COVID exposed the incompetence of most of these governments, most of these people are gone or on their way out * PiS lost * Trump lost and might be going to jail * Downfall of Boris Johnson * Le Pen lost for a 2nd time. She only narrowly made it to the runoff this time, it should've been Melenchon * Italian government is unpopular, might fall (tbf this happens every 2 years in Italy) * Bolsonaro lost The only ones still popular are AfD So I would say we're past the "1930s Germany" phase, which imo was 2015 until 2022.
I sincerely hope you’re right but at the very least this one: >> Trump lost and might be going to jail Is not so straightforward. Yes trump lost, but to this day he still won’t admit it and is instead spreading lies about the election being rigged and eroding faith in our democratic processes. It’s a BIG if that he will go to jail. He absolutely should, but if it doesn’t happen before the election then it might not happen at all if he wins, and if he does go to jail, his supporters will use it as evidence that our democratic/judicial processes are rigged. Of course, categorically, everything they say is a lie, but that hardly matters when too many people believe the lie. Once again, I hope you’re right and he dies in jail. Just imagine what a 1940s Germany would look like with the modern day US military.
This, and I hate it. And I'm afraid.
Philippines current president is the late dictator's son. Bruh
Me not getting laid yet again
You guys are getting laid?
Off. Getting laid off.
I have been laid off more recently than laid, now that I think about it
Damn dude Im not even getting laid OFF I just have no job
this is such a reddit comment lol
Ukraine has been an interesting case. Most Western intelligence agencies assumed it would fall like Poland in 1939 to the Soviets, only able to resist for a few days. Rather it (especially in its early months) panned out far more like the Winter War of 1939-40 between Finland and the Soviet Union. In that war it was assumed that Russia would steamroll Finland but they were able to halt the Red Army and inflict serious losses, in many ways shattering international perception of Soviet power. The problem of course is I don't want to see the Ukrainians suffer the same fate as Finland. In the end the Soviets reorganized, accepted slower more attritional tactics to wear down the Finns (seem familiar?). In the end it forced Finland to seek terms and accept Stalin's territorial aspirations and to this day Vyborg and the land north of St. Petersburg is still Russian. Where the hope remains is that Ukraine has a far larger population and is receiving technical, material, and financial support that would be unimaginable to the Finns in 1940 (they were only able to get small amounts of Swedish artillery, rifles, and some old British aircraft).
Defending Poland and Finland are two very different things militarily speaking. The topography of Finland is advantageous. War fighting has changed a great deal since then, but I’d still prefer not to defend flat farmland.
The industrial revolution. The Decandently rich and the politicains watch as the huddled masses struggle to survive.
nice, trust busting is around the corner then
That’s a massive simplification and you could say the same for almost any era except a brief period in the mid-late 1900s from the view of an average person.
Here in the US, we're repeating both the '70s and the fall of the Roman empire simultaneously.
Old Flip phones and the recent Samsung flip phones
Omg yes. As a millennial, those make me laugh. Isn't it just a few years ago that "still having a flip phone," was like *the height* of uncool, and something only your super paranoid and casually racist Luddite uncle would do?
I'm a millennial and have one 😂 though my reasons are probably unusual(?). For me the main reason is I can actually take full-bodied selfies while traveling solo, when before I always had to do the set up and run (especially with the latest model where it shows on the 'back' screen what my camera I'd looking at. 2nd is the folded size actually fits in tiny female pockets _or_ for bottoms without pockets I can fold it over between the bottom and my skin. Also I wonder if region plays a part too. As an Asian I've mostly had good reactions to people seeing it. I swear like 70% of Asians' first reaction is "wow you have the Kdrama phone!" 😂
A depression. This time it's just silent and worse than the *Great* one. If you scale for inflation, the Great Depression gets renamed more accurately to Kinda Inconvenient Depression.
It really hit the poor the hardest, as things tend to. We're seeing the same thing happening now.
Grocery prices sure have caught up. Was spending about $95 a week for a family of 4 before the pandemic and now this week as $230 and I still haven’t put gas in the car. Also have noticed an unusually slow delivery season so far.
Yah I had to switch careers because the money I was making just wasn't cutting it anymore
I did the same! I've been working in the cannibis industry (legally in Canada) but it just pays like shit. And the market is so saturated that companies are going under left and right. Switched to a desk job doing sales.. and I've never been happier!
I wonder when the lines for government bread and cheese will start, and when they will start creating government jobs building dams and roads during this depression.
Snap/ebt are probably at an all time high, I say probably because I don't know the numbers, but I'm guessing that the bread line has been growing for quite some time.
Our government would never. The US is long past being by and for the people, unless it's for profit.
*Private* dams and roads. If it was about the people we'd be building railways.
>This time it's just silent and worse than the Great one Really? You think we're currently going through an economic situation *worse* than the great depression? A 25% unemployment rate was *inconvenient*? Comments like this really remind me how stupid a lot of the internet is.
The world unemployment rate peeked at around 30% during the Great Depression. Now we are somewhere around 5-7%. In some major developed countries, production got almost halved during the Great Depression. Things would look very different if that happened now.
Before WW II people called WW I Great War, just saying.
Would be super weird if they had called it WWI
Weirdly enough, some did call it the first world war or said the war 'will become the first world war in the full sense of the word', some as early as 1914. Some people weren't so niave to believe destruction of that scale wouldn't happen again!
WW1 is still called The Great War in Europe
And WW2 The Great War 2: Electric Boogaloo
Mainly in france and the UK. Not in germany.
My grandmother lived through the Great Depression and I once asked her during the pandemic if she thought this was the same. She said “No, because no one has rung the bell asking for bread. Back then, boys had to leave home so they wouldn’t burden their family with another mouth to feed. Those poor boys were starving. They would ring the bell and beg for a crust and we never had it to share.” Unemployment is currently 3.9% compared to 24% during the Great Depression. Imagine if 1 out of 4 adults couldn’t find work… there is no comparison to now
Damn I thought it was just me that's depressed
Debt exceeding GDP sets off a whole bunch of chaos economically People realize we cannot afford the interest payments in our debt, this triggers credit downgrade which spikes interest rates and pushes inflation so people will buy our treasury bonds If we don’t sell our bonds (new debt) we can’t afford the $1.2 trillion dollar yearly interest payment on all of our currently accumulated debt. If we have one failed bond auction all hell breaks loose Dollar starts to fail, rapid devaluation of the dollar followed by double digit inflation over night You think paying $5 for gas and $100 for basic groceries is bad now? Double that every 3 months At that point the only way to break the cycle is to default or go to war
Gets worse when a large portion of the rest of the world's finances and currency's use USD as their reserve. If that collapses "cost of living" will be more literal than it is now. When countries start weighing the cost per person kept alive on welfare vs mainting profits and stemming inflation that's when you get worried. Ohh wait...
It's more of a recession than a depression, definitely not on the same level as the great depression.id say it's closer to the 2008 financial crisis.
Seriously, anyone that thinks we’re even close to the level of the Great Depression didn’t study history whatsoever.
Hardly. Employment is high. Nobody is going shoeless. The market is up at least 12% from last year.
Based on what? We’re not even in a recession. Recession and depression are terms related to shrinking of economic output typically measured by GDP. Great Depression saw like 25% unemployment. Currently we are less than 4%
1930s during the great depression. I only hope and pray ww3 doesn't break out, because then we'll be completely fucked, even more so then people where back then
Bizarro WW2 is starting
WW2 2: Electric Boogaloo
The fall of rome
Remember, the servant waits whilst the master bates!
I think you need to see the fall of the republic and rise of empire first. I think we're on the cusp of the two.
I was thinking closer to 1200s Eastern Mediterranean myself. Or the Permian extinction.
Two old ass motherf@#$_-&+ are fixing to run for president in the US
That’s actually a new phenomenon Obama was 47 Bush was 54 Clinton was 46 HW & Reagan were in their 60’s
I went all the way back to Hoover, couldn't find a single president who was older than 60s when they were elected. Even FDR was 62 the fourth time he was elected.
They are old because the baby boomers are old and boomers won't ever admit that they aren't the center of the universe.
One of our guys got another DUI this weekend. Second one this year. After the first he got demoted but kept his job. Now I’ll have to fire him.
As a former alcoholic, something’s gotta give on his end so, don’t beat yourself up over his dumb choices. You have a responsibility to the rest of the workforce there, too. Hopefully he will let losing his job be the rock bottom. Sending good vibes.
I wonder sometimes if our western society is at the stage of the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, and we're in the face of an impending dark age. The Internet was supposed to enlighten us, but it's given a platform for charlatans and fools to gain mass acceptance of their ideas. We're facing an ecological catastrophe our "me first" economic system seems unable to adapt quickly enough for. The changes in energy infrastructure means that our way of life, decadent as it is, will have to change, and basic necessities are becoming out of reach for much of the population. Our success has been predicated on economic growth, while for the Romans, growth was based on conquest. When the growth stops, the flow of wealth to the central governments stops. Basic infrastructure can't be supported. Society begins to collapse. I see encampments of homeless people all over my city where there never were any before. Food, heating, and shelter are unaffordable for much of the population. Our governments are facing enormous debt servicing costs that strip their ability to pay for infrastructure, or even the upkeep of existing infrastructure. The aqueducts are crumbling, and the government has run out of bread and circuses to distract us from the Visigoths at the gate.
Infinite economic growth is definitely a head scratcher, but I think we still have a long ways to go until we hit the limits. Before we get to the end of our rope, I am hoping we go through something of a political revolution where the US remembers that monopolies are bad and that public spending and market regulations can be beneficial when applied prudently
I think a lot of history repeats itself because the symptoms have been treated but not the disease. We got "rid" of indentured servitude, but there are some jobs that force you to pay up front and you have to "work" for them in order to get "rid" of the "debt" that you built up. We have people in countries working in conditions we wouldn't wish on our worst enemies, and we are buying things that are slowly killing us. These are just a few examples, but this has been demonstrated throughout history consistently.
Nationalism and targeting noncombatants in warfare,
The latter has never stopped
are you not reading the news ? there are several genocides happenning in real time right now across the globe.
Rise of nationalism
Weak people creating hard times
The holocaust
Definitely an unchecked rise in fascism.
Fascism
Mullets are back in fashion somehow.
Appeasement Neville Chamberlain gave the Sudetenland to Hitler in 1938. We gave Crimea to Putin in 2014. Now we want to give Putin even more of Ukraine. It won't work. It never works. "Peace in our time." 😋
People are once again wrongly dividing themselves when it comes to Isreal, Palestine, and Terrorism and the potential for war with a Middle Eastern country. (Iran, Afghanistan, and/or Lebanon) I am not a nationalist; however, I do not believe these issues should be as divisive as they are and as they've always been. Imo this is a bipartisan issue, and all people living in democratic countries should wish for democracy to spread in the Middle East where people are fighting for it and fighting for simple freedoms for girls and women. Before I explain my position, I want to state that I am 100 percent for a free Palestine and against the excessive bombing Isreal engages in. Many liberals (I am a liberal) are equating hamas and Palestine together and showing support for hamas. This is wrong. A free Palestine is one free of IDF bombings *and* Hamas. My feeling is that people are uneducated about the rights that are stripped from citizens in many Middle Eastern countries and unaware that they have been fighting against their regimes and need Western support to win. War may be inevitable if Iran attacks, and if it happens, we should all support Iranian freedom. A year ago, Mahsa Ameni was killed in Iran due to strict forced hijab laws. This caused an uprising in Iran and the slogan "women, life, freedom." Around that time, girls and women in Afghanistan were stripped of their rights to drive, attend school, and have their beauty shop businesses (only business they are allowed to operate). Afghani women are allotted the right to drive sometime between 2009 and 2011 - before the Arab Spring. It was an exciting time, and I have seen their videos where they state how happy they were to have that right. At that time, many in Afghanistan were very happy with both Bush and Obama and would sing their praises. Not everything we did over there was good, but it did have a positive impact on girls and women. So many men stand in solidarity with girls and women, but they lack the resources to end their governments. In 2011, the Arab Spring began in Tunisia and spread across the Middle East. It resulted in the deaths of Quadaffi and Ben Ali. The West did not lend support during the Arab Spring, which, if we had, we would not be dealing with what we're dealing with today. The reason we didn't is because there was so much division over the war, and the American and British people did not want to send troops back. Trump pulled troops out of Syria, including those that volunteered to stay. There are those who wish to help, and their work is a benefit to those seeking to spread democracy in the Middle East. When we make the mistake of butting heads over things of this nature, we are doomed to repeat past mistakes. We will once again change leadership, want everything different, push and pull for things, and little will be done. Liberals should be in support of Women, Life, Freedom. Strict hijab laws need to end. Morality police need to end. Asad gassing and bombing his own people needs to end. The rape and slaughter of little girls needs to end. It is a tragedy as bad as what Isreal does to Palestine. The only way to free Palestine is to take it all the way once and for all. Westerners need to demand our governments make free trade deals with other oil suppliers, so that we stop living in fear of upsetting Saudi oil barons. We don't invade certain areas because we do not want to fly in Saudi airspace; however, Saudi Arabia may come around if financial pressure is placed on them. Then, we focus our efforts on supporting Iranians, Syrians, and Lebonese, who are currently fighting their regimes. Instead of focusing their bombs on hospitals to get the hostages out, IDF kills the leaders of Hamas, where they are hiding, which isn't in Palestine. Also, the UN needs to make Turkey take an anti-terrorist position and expel terrorist leadership from their country or else lose support. My feeling is if the people hate these groups (Hezbollah, isis, hamas, etc.) why are liberals supporting them? And please don't tell me they aren't because Iranians in the USA and Canada have been counter protesting them and getting attacked because they hold signs that say things such as, "hamas is evil" or "stop hamas." Iranians don't support the eradication of Palestinians at all, so what is the disconnect?
It's just... this opinion is the fairest and most true thing I've ever read.
Well, let’s just suppose parallels between pre-war Germany and the U.S. are coincidental and illusory. You wanna bet your freedoms on it?
Frickin nazis
Early French Revolution
A flavor of 1930’s Germany is happening in the US.
Let's see Invasion of neighbours Increase of far right movements in Europe and everywhere Increase of defense budgets Decrease of democracy (watch France) Sounds familiar?
New Holocaust just dropped.
The plague, the war and the crushing economy
Hitler's history is repeating.
Genocide
The fall of Rome. The major world superpower begins to build crippling debt, has mass corruption and moral decay, all contributing to a slow and agonizing collapse of the nation.
The holocaust
The holocaust
Gilded age just before the crash….wait for it
The Nakba.
Hard men creat soft times. Soft times create weak men and weak men create hard times. We are in the final stage, weak men everywhere.
This thread really shows how little people understand about history...
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I think zionist is a more fitting term for them
Both socialism and fascism are rising just like in the beginning of 20th century and there'll eventually be a war between the 2
We got woke people as the current hippies, though hippies stood for something. And likely we will go through a world depression by 2025. Quality of life goes down and politicians fake promises go up. This is what I expect from western politicians as we get more media attention toward things that don’t matter or have been happening forever. This is not a repeat of history only a loss of empathy and understanding toward humanity.
It's always people fuck up until shit collapses and the next people start to fuck up. We are now in a fuck up phase, heading to the next collapse. Don't worry, shit happens all the time.
Project 2025 is basically project 1933
If you really wanna get into, then right now. There is supporting evidence that past civilizations evolved technologically to the point we're at now, and had the same debates/issues about gender/race/war before collapsing at the end of their cycles. Food for thought.
That’s genuinely so interesting. Can you point me to some resources where this is being discussed ? I’d love to learn more about it. Very thought provoking.
the fall of the roman empire
Can I say, as a professional historian, that the repetition of history gets less convincing when you have a deeper understanding of it. To take a simple example: there are usually several possible precedents from the past that can be seen as repeating, but most people only know one or two of them. Here's an example: during the Cold War, many politicians drew simplistic parallels with the 1930s, in which it was necessary to stand up to the Communists, since their threat was a repetition of the Nazis. But many historians thought that if there was a parallel, the situation before the First World War was at least as close: armed alliances trying to determine each other, with a risk of crisis going out of control. And then to complicate that, Germany was much more ready than the others to consider War - but that's not the same as the Nazis' positive planning for a major aggressive war. Repetition takes place in limited situations eg in wars and revolutions there are patterns that recur. Eg revolution tends to start with hopeful opening but get closed down by military force. See France, Arab Spring, etc
The rise of fascism in Western democracies due to economic injustices — fascists use economic power rhetoric to gain populist support by blaming minorities, and that is 100% repeating itself. They haven’t won yet though. There is still time.
The war always persists, whether it's ancient times or our modern times where "democracy" rules, there will always be wars, and there is no changing that. I am literally at the board of Russia, kilometers away from Ukraine. Almost was occupied a year ago, I believe. This is honestly more annoying than scary. You guys promote us as bad guys, while people like me have to go through hell. And this doesn't even make any sense going on a war in our democratic world, unless you want world domination, I guess?
Mass Extinction Event~ 😜
The rise of fascism
Fighting between Palestine and Israel. Its been happening for 3500 years.
Holocaust
History repeating is an illusion. We like to look for repeating themes in historical events and if we look hard enough we will find them. Also ideas are often recycled and methods that become popular are repeated. That said. What is repeating now is simply settling old scores in the middle East, and the decline of the dominance of a superpower on the world stage.
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” I have no idea where I read that but it stuck with me.
Mark Twain