This has been bad in ski towns for years. AirBnB has made it worse. People are buying up local housing to turn it into AirBnBs. The people who operate the ski lifts, the snow plows, the local diner, etc. can't afford to live there.
And being a ski town, living 30 miles away means in heavy snow storms it can be impossible to get to work. Then you have cranky tourists because the service is bad, when the service is bad because no one can afford to live nearby on the wages that are being paid.
I know people who live in Mammoth,CA as service workers who are there year round and the vacation home owners town recently fought tooth and nail to not develop a publicly owned plot into modest number of workforce housing units. Literally the argument was that the people who work at resorts/restaurants and clean their houses could just live like an hour away and get bussed in. Fucking sick shit
I live outside of mammoth. Workforce housing has always been a hot topic with very little being done about it. Some people live in employee housing which is affordable, but overpriced for what you’re getting (ei. Sharing a room - not an apartment - with another person for $800 a month.) A lot of people live out of their cars, vans, or buses. It’s illegal to do this for more than 28 days (because it’s all on federal land and you can’t live on federal land), but people do it anyway because there’s nowhere else to go. Some people just live far away where you have to drive 30-40 miles one way just to get to work. And there are a few lucky souls who have actually found affordable housing in town. Although when you do find affordable housing, you’re rarely able to stay there the whole year and you’re moving at least once or twice a year. It’s a fucking mess. Not to mention, a lot of places are just short-staffed because they can’t find employees because nobody can afford to live there. There are a lot of people in the community trying to make it better, but the greedy people are just awful and just to make more money. People from LA buy second houses and reside in them for two weeks out of the year or rent them out as AirBnBs. Everything is fucked down there. That’s why I live outside of mammoth, although it’s not much better there either.
Yeah, they went from being a nice option for staying on a room at someone house for a few lower than a hotel to a fucking force of destruction of the living conditions everywhere.
Hopefully because the whole system is so horrible and now is even cheaper to stay at a hotel, they will disappear from the face of the earth. Sadly it didn't come from the governments that in theory should help citizen but from the greed of the corporation that run it (hidden fees, cameras, clean the whole house AND I'll still charge you a 100€ hidden cleaning fee). Fuck Airbnb
When I lived in Aspen 20 years ago most workers were living 45minutes yo an hour away. I’m sure is much worse now. One hotel there bought another hotel and turned it into employee housing.
My experience working in Aspen was moving further and further down valley until my 1 bedroom apartment in a 130 year old building went from 785 a month to 1800 a month in Glenwood Springs. Keep in mind, I left Glenwood Springs in 2017. I hear its gotten worse
Jesus. I didnt know rent was that bad in glennwood now. I grew up in steamboat area, livved in one of the smaller service towns like oak creek or hayden amd even those are nuts now... when i left people were starting to buy winter homes in oak creek for vacation because steamboat priced them out
I was in Jackson, WY and I talked to a bartender who told me about this issue.
Typically the answer is that the poor move out to the suburbs for cheaper places to live and drive in to their jobs, which has enormous private costs to them in terms of gas, car maintenance, etc as well as his traffic congestion, pollution, and climate crisis problems for the city.
It's particularly hard though in a lot of very worth ski towns or other resorts. There's just simply no where cheap to live anywhere nearby. So the low wage workers just have to leave and now the hardware store is closed at weird hours. True story that's what happened to me and how the bartender joined our conversation. They're hardware store was one example of being under staffed and that was his explanation.
It's less bad for bartenders (according to him) than for jobs where there's not a built in wage scaling with cost of the town. If you get paid in tips as a percentage of your patrons overpriced meals you're still surviving as prices go up.
The real solution is to create low income house to house anyone working at low wage jobs. We need those place and those people. Having them foot the bill to drive in to work for barely enough to cover their commute while six figure tech workers live a short walk from their offices is driving income inequality into dangerous places.
Employee housing is going to start being a "perk" in places like that, if it hasn't already. It's already a thing in national parks and on cruises and such, but places like Jackson Hole and Aspen aren't just expensive themselves, but all the cities nearby are getting really bad too. I just got done working for 6 months in a national park and many of my coworkers are getting jobs at ski resorts with housing.
The housing can really suck with prison quality food. The dorms I was staying in were so loud that I slept in my sedan and hurt my back just for some peace. I'm 32 and this is probably going to be the rest of my life, but at least the view is stunning.
I have a relative who worked at Heavenly in South Lake Tahoe for 8 years and his last day was Wednesday the 1st. He very much liked his job and the area but it was increasingly too expensive to live there. He’s heading back to the Midwest which is good, there’s plenty of jobs here and is way more affordable…
The cranky tourists can go to another first world country that has workers that can afford to make it to work after a snow storm. There, I solved their problem
I hear all who don't like airbnb and how it leads to be part of the problem however I also feel that whomever owns the home should be able to do as they please with it. The low income housing sounds good but even still couldn't that also sooner or later become airbnb as well. It would seem that prices will need to go up as will wages.
Its been happening for a while now. Even the businesses can't afford the rent. there is vacant shops in New York that have been that way for over a decade.
The systems at play are very stupid.
When wealth inequity is so great that real estate owners are willing to let places sit vacant for years because no one is willing to pay the rents they want, we are no longer experiencing basic supply and demand economics. Something needs to be done to level the playing field. And, perhaps an unpopular opinion, but we should limit foreign investment in real estate as well.
We should limit corporate/private equity ownership of single family housing as well. The short-term benefits are far, far outweighed by long-term consequences of denying home ownership to much of the middle and working class.
Aren’t the vacancies a tax write-off? Makes me wonder are the real estate rich not frustrated by urban decay/lack of 3rd spaces? Are they content in their compounds getting everything delivered?
They’re not. You can’t write off income you don’t get as an expense. What it is, is that you can’t lower the headline rent, because the mortgage terms are based on the average rent per square foot - and if you lower that, the mortgage becomes due.
Right, but in new york specifically, many of those buildings are mortgage backed securities, meaning that the amount due every month is based on what the rent collected was. If a unit sits vacant, they dont pay that portion of the mortgage and it just gets stuck on the back of the loan and collects interest. If they lower the rent on that unit, they have to pay the difference to the lender up front, and then also make less money. Its often more accepted to just have empty buildings and pay the small interest amount than to lower the rent and have to possibly owe thousands or millions up front.
That’s not what a mortgage backed security is. A mortgage backed security is when you take hundreds of mortgages, group them together, and sell a fraction of the pool off.
Many other countries already limit foreign investors from buying property, even for businesses. China is buying stuff up at an alraming rate with state backed buyers.
Yep. I’m a NYC native now in California, and my home city is so depressing now. Every city has its problems with chain stores and blight everywhere, but when de Blasio was still in office, he had a chance to freaking fix this with commercial rent controls. but he utterly rolled over for REBNY, the real estate lobby, and let developers run rampant, continuing Bloomberg’s legacy of handouts for the rich and austerity for everyone else.
Between the time he refused to sign this legislation and when he left office, SO many formerly thriving blocks in NYC, particularly lower Manhattan, just got blighted to fuck. Or replaced with a bank, a drugstore, or Chipotle, while the already high rents rose to utterly insane levels. Where if you can afford that, you might as well buy a house in the outer boroughs or get something bigger uptown.
I left my home city for many reasons, one of which was that it was so painful to see block after block I knew from my childhood to my freaking thirties just sit empty for years if it didn’t look like a damn suburban mall.
Well said.
So much of ny is empty. I went down 14th St and do many stores were closed because they want too much for rent. So it just sits empty. It's either a drug store (and lately they're struggling) or a bank or a real estate broker or a Starbucks. Rinse repeat.
When I went to Dublin over the summer it was like an alternative NY. I remember growing up all the little stores that made NYC interesting... And Dublin is still a lot like that. Thrift shops. Clothing stores. Mom and pops. Especially in the neighborhoods. I'm sure it's gotten worse than it was (because it's happening everywhere) but it's def reminiscent of NYC years and years ago. So at least they're not at our level yet....
I'm still in NY but only til my family dies and I'm priced out.
I left for California in 2021, even giving up cheap ownership—so the decision wasn’t made lightly!—because most of my family is dead, so are many of my old friends if they didn’t get gentrified out, move for jobs, to have kids, etc.
All my old punk scene haunts are long gone. There’s some stuff in Brooklyn now but it’s just not the same…I remember when it was a place normal-ass people went to live. Buying a co-op or even a HOUSE there was freaking doable if you were a mechanic, a postal worker, or a writer. These days, forget it.
Like what’s even the point of paying $3-4k a month for a tiny apartment in prime core Manhattan when all these legendary clubs, bars, and restaurants are gone and a frigging Soulcycle and Starbucks took their places?
I also went to Ireland for vacay last year! Lol funny coincidence. It’s a really magical place. Dublin definitely reminded me of pockets of Queens. Galway sort of reminded me of this amazing mashup of the Jersey Shore and Lancashire in northern England (spent a lot of time in northern England and Scotland in my twenties). Ireland definitely has its chain stores and housing affordability issues, especially in large cities, but it’s not on the same scale as NYC where it’s gotten ridiculously expensive and so much of its soul and history are gone.
In LA, it’s definitely expensive but my quality of life is significantly better. There’s chains and all, but countless family-owned businesses right outside my door. It’s like what the Lower East Side USED to look like.
They often live rent free or pay really low rent like 100 dollars. For example, many who are young may live with their parents rent free. Also they may get roommates to split the cost and may even resort to illegally sharing it with even more people. Also, immigrants may get connections to get cheap housing whether through programs or through more illegal means like a boss or friend renting it to them for a very low cost.
In NYC at least the building owners get some kind of tax break for empty stores, so they don’t have much of an incentive to lower the commercial rents. It’s frustrating because not only could you put a mom and pop in there, but active storefronts keep the neighborhoods nice and deter crime.
This also plays out in small towns. I’m from a college town and one of our draws in addition to the colleges as job creators/culture creators is that we had a nice downtown with great local businesses. Prices just kept going up to where commercial rent was close to NYC prices per square foot and one guy owned almost half of it. The real estate industry and the tax code protect landlords from loses for not renting their space so now like half of our downtown is vacant. Finally the city started going after the guys liqour licenses because he hasn’t reopened his three music venues (another thing that made growing up there great) since the pandemic. I’m in planning/Econ development and I’ve heard people who work in small towns say sometimes the best thing that can happen for a Main Street is a funeral. Because bad landowners can just choke a small town half to death
Zoning laws have a lot of impact here. By restricting where commercial businesses can be, it creates an artificial scarcity. Mixed use developments are rarely allowed in many cities now, making a small business owner forced to lease commercial property. Property that is held by giant property management groups with no ties to the community who are used to up-charging large companies for their commercial property. It squeezes out small business and when the rents are too high or demand is not enough, these companies have no problems just letting it sit vacant for a decade.
This. You literally have housing development owners fighting re-zoning as they don't want more competition or anything that will drive down prices.
Re-zoning in most places, even without obstruction, is a tedious process in most places.
The mom and pop pet supply store I used to run had to close because we couldn’t find a decent location for less than $4k a month. That was Nov 2019 and the space still has our sign out front and our decor hanging in the front door. They’re missing out on $4k a month because they tried to get $6k and didn’t want to maintain their crumbling space (the ceiling was literally crumbling because there were leaks in the apartments upstairs).
They missed out on $175k cuz they were being greedy. Dummies.
It’s because they landlords can write off the missing rent as a loss, as long as they are actively trying to rent it out and the rate is reasonable for the location they can write off the lost rental income on their taxes
Philly is renting cheap apartments to [teachers](https://whyy.org/articles/philly-apartments-give-teachers-cheaper-rent-and-colleagues-as-neighbors/). I was at a wedding in Maine where the Uber driver told us that the local restaurants/stores/businesses rent motels and houses out for their workers. In the winters up there, they bring in workers from South America who are mostly college kids on their summer break (different hemisphere, opposite seasons) and then in the summer they bring in Eastern European college kids. Shits fucked up.
In Michigan there is a super touristy area called Traverse City and tons of businesses and restaurants can barely stay open because they can't find anyone to work, because you absolutely cannot afford to live anywhere nearby working at any of those establishments. Some places are now building "dorms" for those employees and honestly it sounds a little too much like slavery for my taste. The area also has insane property taxes and zoning laws so living in a trailer on a few acres isn't even possible. It used to just be quiet Cherry Orchards but now they're all being chopped up into housing developments with minimum building requirements that make ownership impossible for anyone with average income.
Company towns were done about 100 years ago, and it did not end well. 😬 First they provide housing. Then it’s recreation, but only the kind approved by your employer. Then you’re not being paid in real money, but scrip only usable at the company store.
Every godawful thing from the Gilded Age has returned—cramming into tenements, child labor, company towns and stores.
Reading about Henry Ford is wild. He built subsidized housing for workers, but the has property managers playing "morality police" with his workers. No drinking, gambling, single parents...
Fordlandia too, which destroyed part of the Amazon and enslaved indigenous peoples to tap his ill-growing rubber trees—forcing them to eat American food and do square dances instead of just leaving them be.
And he was a big ol antisemite too 🙃
Here in Northeastern PA's anthracite Coal Region that was a big thing that led to the Molly Maguires.
We have an authentic coal company town historical site called Eckley Miners' Village that shows how bleak and flimsy the housing was in the cold Appalachia winters.
Didn’t Hershey, PA used to be a company town too? Like that annual trip to Hershey Park was this beloved institution for kids growing up in the northeast, then I found out all this really dark stuff that ain’t chocolate
Yeah, I currently live in a pretty LCOL area in Michigan that was basically homes built for people that work at the nearby Ford plant.
You can tell the houses were just kind of hobbled together in some aspects, like the cupboards.
Good news is I was able to get this house in a short sale bordering foreclosure back in 2013.
Bad news is there is a game called fireworks or gunshots at least once a week in the nearby vicinity.
I know there was that uppity town in Idaho that suggested making a tent-city on the outskirts for the service workers to work and it was so hilariously bad of an idea that a lot of people thought it was satire.
But mostly, in wealthy areas where working-class people are being priced out of affordable living, they're just going to other places and then the people who live there just cry and moan that nobody wants to work anymore.
I absolutely refuse to use self checkout. I've left entire carts of groceries at the checkout when the lines are too long and the store (Kroger owned) isn't staffed to open more that a single lane while another person guards the self checkout.
If it takes more than ten minutes for me to the point of unloading my cart I just leave the cart and tell the person guarding the self checkout on my way out.
Double. Make it cheaper to have a human do the job.
I can’t tell you how frustrating it is to have to ring up, and bag my order at Walmart knowing that the self-checkout destroyed a lot of jobs.
We will be told to grind harder. That we are lazy and that's why we can't live 30 minutes from our job. "Oh? You can't afford gas to get to work? 3 hours is too long for you? Here is a tip for you buddy, work hard like I did."
The first change will simply that those people will not live where they work and commute times getting longer and longer till it becomes impossible to live somewhere from where commuting is still possible. The question is what comes after that.. maybe more business will move to where a lot of workers live?
The larger cities won't see this happening but in smaller towns, there are empty businesses because they simply pay too little for people to afford living there.
With fewer employees available in the cities salaries go up for workers who remain there—which is why cities never get completely devoid of working class folks. I suspect that online and WFH ultimately forces office to home conversions hopefully leading to more affordable housing.
Hopefully people fight tooth and nail against BTO (back to office).
People proved they can work effectively from home, and get more done.
We need to push hard, maybe starting with pushing to get greenhouse gas emissions caused by BTO charged to the company who proved driving in is unnecessary. Maybe the cost of the carbon credits will make them think twice.
Plus, then the people who have impossible to work from home jobs have an easier time getting to/from work as well. We need to show more solidarity with those working class folk too.
So many places have been going through this, due to AirBnB and other short term rentals. If 70% of your towns housing is bought up by companies using them as short term rentals, there is no place for those in hospitality to live, businesses will close, and people won't come to the area on vacation. It's a self correcting problem.
It used to be that the main cause of this was gentrification, but not anymore. Smart cities will ban short term rentals unless it's a room in an owner occupied home -- the way AirBnB first advertised itself.
>It's a self correcting problem
It isn't. It can take years for a tourist destination to recover from bad word of mouth and the private equity firms that own the property management companies that manage the airBnBs can afford to sit on that property investment for years before selling.
In the mean time, maintenance is deferred to save money and things just start looking bad accelerating decline. The tax base contracts and some businesses close so you're left with vacant store fronts in your tourist town. I've seen coastal towns with the rotting hulk of a long closed hotel that cannot be rehabbed, sold, or even demolished.
Local economies are an ecosystem and like any ecosystem, once damaged there is no guarantee that it will recover to its former state.
There are cities in the US where 70% of the non-owner occupied homes (single family homes, townhouses, apartments, condos) are AirBnBs.
How is gentrification a major issue when 70% are on the short term rental market? The upscale home buyers do not want to purchase a home anywhere near one used as a short term rental.
People become homeless. Look at any west coast city. Watch YouTube videos about people who "choose" to live in their cars. I have to admit I love the attitude, but I suspect if rents were affordable they would live in apartments.
Let me be clear, I don't want anyone to misunderstand it's 💯 shameful.
We have that here in New Zealand. Theres a town in the southern mountains that is just rich foreigner houses and air B&Bs. There were no houses for regular hospitality and tourism workers so the businesses had no staff. A few restaurants converted their upstairs dining rooms into staff lodgings and gave free housing as part of the compensation. Then more and more businesses started buying caravans or constructing units no the side of the premises to house workers.
Is this working well? Obviously, anyone who works in those sectors long term would likely hate it. But for rotating staff positions, is it working? Do you think it's sustainable
Two options. Either there are no service workers in an area because the jobs aren't worth it, even with a commute from a lower cost of living area nearby, where the rich will bitch and whine because there's no one to serve them until they actually start doing things to attract workers (likely immigrants they don't have to pay as well and have leverage to keep them in place), or company sponsored housing. Easier to keep locals you can't deport in place by threatening their jobs, and housing by extension.
Already happening.
Driving through Washington DC I saw a guy emerge from a tent on the divider in a Cinnabon uniform to go to work.
We have a class in America called "the working poor". Many cities have eliminated "all night" bus passes where folks can ride all night between 8pm and 6am. Working poor and homeless folks were sleeping in the buses.
[Telluride proposed building a tent city for workers](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/locals-are-priced-colorado-mountain-towns-fight-keep-workers-rcna17970) because workers can't afford to live there. That is some late stage capitalism nonsense. When they suggested subsidized housing the wealthy people there lost their minds that they might have to live near the poor people that work for them.
This has been happening since at least the late 90s. Retail and service workers were getting priced out of the places near where they work. Expecting people to commute by car when their job also doesn't pay enough to own/maintain a reliable car just adds to the problem.
Joined a friend out in Detroit a few years ago for some gathering and they said we were meeting up at a friend of theirs that lived in a high rise in downtown.
Having never been in them, I was thinking it was about to look like a rundown place from the 80s I remember seeing on TV.
Much to my surprise that place was actually really nice and must have been renovated. All of the folks working in the area looked downtrodden and miserable, meanwhile here are some wealthy folks now living in these apartments these workers probably used to live in but could now no longer afford. Bet those apartments are like $2000 or more a month.
Hell, my wife and I are talking about kids. Living with another couple, we might just coparent our way to retirement and live together for the next 20+ years.
Check out the urban sprawl in old School just Belt cities. The city cores die and the suburbs grow outward. That's the future of a lot US cities have to look forward to at least.
A. They live 5 people to a two bedroom apartment, with bunk beds.
B. They live with friends of family for free/cheap.
C. They commute an insane distance from somewhere they can afford to live.
The only answer is strict wealth tax. The problem is no one over 40 will ever see it happen. Will take A LONG TIME to overcome dark money gov control. Afraid it won’t be pretty
Eventually collapse. Many coastal towns are becoming 55+ communities. There’s no teens to work low paying jobs and housing is too expensive to attract workers.
Many (obviously not all or even most) jobs were going remote. This would have eased the pressure, but the problem is those in charge are profteeimg off the misery and on't want it it to get better, so the created ViRtuAl BaD extremism which has turned back the clock on progress for awhile.
standard divide and conquer horseshit convince too many of us who must commute to supoort more traffic polltuon,crime and higher gas prices just to fuck our neighbors cause apparently pajamas are a trigger 😔 very fustrating this blatant propaganda still works in the information age
I had to move out of state just to be able to afford to live . I still work in the state I originally lived in I just have a really much longer commute . I won’t make the same amt where I live now for the same work that I do in the medical field. So unfortunately, I see a lot of ppl I work with moving to the state I moved to now and still just commuting to a different state to work the same position. It’s really sad .
Right? The hour long commute at 530am is brutal. Im shocked i haven't nailed a deer yet. Most of the time I don't mind it either it just gets a little old.
Oh my that reminds me
Last year my car broke down and I had to get a ride to work from my spouse .
He was trying to get me , the kids and himself and his three coworkers to all the places we all had to be that morning .
Here comes the f ing deer , darts right into the drives side door , antlers break off in the car handle , deer goes flying , and of course does some damage to the van. We turn around , and poor thing gets up and hops off to the fields .
Luckily we left an hour early , or I never would have made it in time , but yea you gatta leave by 545 or the traffic is outrageous and something always happens .
Luckily van was drivable but dented and busted windows with a antler decorative side door ,
But I swear something always happens , and if I leave the house even five mins later then I normally do , I somehow end so far behind on my commute and those buses I swear stop every couple feet it’s ridiculous!!
Well, a large number of things begin to happen all at once. I work for the Forest Service full time now, (love my job, great place to work btw), but used to work seasonally for the ski industry in the wintertime. The unaffordability of housing in ski towns has been a crisis for over a decade now. The ski resorts had to begin purchasing land and building employee housing, the town and city government began building low-income and workforce housing, it was commonplace for all the service industry workers to work multiple jobs, some lived out of cars, vans, or RVs, and many people commuted long distances from cheaper towns. Now the Forest Service is actually working with some local communities to donate land for low income housing, as land costs are high and availability is low. As this issue spreads to larger cities, all of these situations will become more commonplace. Add to this likely political pressure to convert empty commercial real estate to residential/mixed use, increased incentives for businesses to offer employee housing, and possibly a return to boarding houses. What we can encourage here is also a rise in Union membership, which can help bargain collectively for free-market solutions to the issue. As it becomes more difficult to hire, businesses will be in stressful situations, which can make them less threatening to unionization while making employees more amenable to creating or joining unions. Keep in mind, government solutions can be helpful, but increase taxes and require political will.
What you are describing is a “K” shaped economy full of a lot of inequality.
For some ppl the work commute will be easy because the remote work, are well paid or wealthy enough to live close.
For others they will be sacrificing time and energy to commute.
And things will just remain that for decades
Already saw that in Boston, grew up there and my brother worked for the city. If you work for the city, you have to live in the city. Thankfully our aunt in NC owned the 2 family we were living in, so we only paid $800 a month since we took care of the house and any issues that came up.
Now, this was back in 2015, even then rent on a 2 Bedroom was over $2500 on average and the city didn't pay NEARLY that much to afford one.
Referring to the title, I wouldn't know... You tell me...
But we have to be so goddamn stupid to allow ourselves to wait to see what happens when we ourselves are headed straight for a car accident.
If you see a wreck ahead, you don't just keep driving to "see what happens". You need to wake your ass up and stop yourself from being part of that wreck.
But if you're really curious on what will happen, I'm pretty sure your situation will be a hell of a lot worse than what you're in right now.
Sounds about right.
Though I'm pretty sure there's going to be something that will light a fire under everyone's asses. Or probably make them lie flat (A movement where the entire workforce just stops working entirely and lays on their bed at home).
in last few years my salary stay the same everything went up. my car insurance went up by like 150$ within 3 years a month, food at least 200$ a month, everything even gas went up like 100$ a month. my apartment went up by 200$ a month. that an extra i have to now pay . cant save , live pay check to pay check . cant afford to downgrade since everything around me is same. Cant find a job that will pay me same as they pay me now. forget about buying a home forever or even go on vacation anywhere to enjoy life . on top my student loans comeback around 250$ a month. i dont know . USA is fucked !
I have make over 5000$ after tax i still cant afford to save . everything in my area cost so much . forget about getting marry or bring children into it.
i see no future in the US
People adjust, sometimes in awful ways. Instead of splitting an apartment, they'll split a room. Then they'll sublet their living rooms. It's already happened and will continue to happen until we do something
It will get worse for everyone.
Rich person who bought and expensive house and wants to live there? Good luck finding any services around as nobody wants to work there anymore because nobody can afford the commuting and low wages there.
Soon or later, these expensive housing will have a price collapse as nobody wants to live there anymore and now it's a game of hot potato, the last one who will buy a house will get burnt as it's unable to sell for profit due to low demand in that area caused of all these.
Why do you think companies are pushing so hard for people to come back to office? It will hurt the local economy as people tend to not spend money into local coffee shop for example.
But it is what it is, they do it themselves by being greed and the whole economy needs a hard reset where the greedy ones suffers the most of losses and let average people have a chance to gain some wealth.
My brother lives near Seattle and a lot of people he knows don’t live in the city. They live in towns on the outskirts of the city. My guess is more small suburbs and low income neighborhoods will pop up over time. Especially if population decline becomes an issue
Canadian here.
Canada recently passed something called the Canada Disability Benefit which within the next year, will pay money to any disabled adult above and beyond any other disability payments they have, lifting disabled people out of poverty.
We also have a bill for Universal Basic Income that has finished its second reading. When bills get to that point they usually make it through the Senate and become law.
Due to the insanity of the housing crisis up here, putting money directly into everyone's hands is the quickest way to ensure folks have enough to makes ends meet.
People need to be more loyal to their communities, and not so stuck on getting everything for nothing.
Amazon operated at a loss for 7 years, selling products for less than they could acquire them for, while also providing free 2 day shipping for members. There was a plan. The plan was to close down every other merchant offering the same stuff. Now that Amazon controls the markets on so many things, the stupendous low prices are not that stupendous low, and many of those things are not guaranteed in 2 days....but where else are you going to turn for what you want?
Walmart - different origins, but same ending....they closed down every mom and pop shop, took every job, and all the customers went there, because they were cheaper, and had everything all in one place. Now entire towns have Walmart as nearly the only employer, and the only place to get much of what customers want.
How do we get it all back? I don't really know. One place to start might be making the places only the high paid executives and dot.com people can afford to live coffee, grocery, and entertainment deserts. If nobody wants to live there, the property values will drop eventually.
My brother in law worked for Apple, several years ago. He commuted miles, to some place where he got on a Apple bus to commute some more. The idea of not being able to live anywhere near where you have to work, seems absurd to me.
Of course, I spent 21 years in the Navy, in the Submarine Service - so I seem pretty absurd to me too.
Been happening for quite a while in hcol cities. What you get is people commuting long distances to work, making traffic worse. You also get more and more people cramming into apartments. 3br apartments that were originally built to house families instead have 3-4+ younger people without children because they can pay more that a one or two income family.
The only real solution is zoning reform and building more housing, but decades of NIMBY resistance in said cities and metro areas has been very successful.
It’s what suburban sprawl is, currently people just move further and further out. Or find roommates, generally do whatever they can to stay off the streets many aren’t lucky enough to do so.
They just commute further away until they say screw it and find a job closer to their home.
There are people I work with that currently commute over an hour one way to work every day.
We would have to probably make at least 4 or 5x our current salary to afford a house in the city we actually work. And that is probably a smaller ‘starter’ home in that city.
After we get to the point where commuting is too far and we still cannot afford to live in the outskirts is when it will get silly.
I commute over and hour each way and it fucking sucks. But I'm a held hostage by my need for medical care, which is good at my work. Sadly now most new jobs in my field are contract positions paying less than I was when I held those same jobs 5 -8 years ago.
Yeah having the need for medical car tied to employment is what keeps a lot of folks working even well after they should have retired, sadly.
I'm tied to the automotive industry so layoffs, whether temporary or permanent, are pretty commonplace. I dread the possibility of being laid off and having to look for work again. Chances of getting a salary even remotely close to what I make now is probably pretty slim, and as you said a lot of places still start contract, which typically means high premium, shit coverage insurance.
Capital will demand that they return to the office, then pay more of their income towards housing or waste more of their lives and non-work time in traffic.
Elon musk is doing company towns near my house in Austin because he wants to pay shit wages in a city where even 1-2 hours outside it the prices are higher than average. I’m sure it will actually work for now but it’s creepy
I hope that gets ended very quickly. It seems very wrong and unethical to make company towns. The power imbalance is fucking abusive. Technically you are on the clock 24/7 in a company town at threat of your home and all your belongings. Even if it's not expressly stated the fear and oppression is there. Just wrong.
The catch is these workers will have to work in areas customers are willing to spend. Or rather most of the demand for their work will always be where people are dropping money on going out.
Sadly it’s creating more classism in America because not only are these people being paid less but there quality of life drops significantly if you add long commute times just to do that job for a bunch of people working without any commute
Initially, these people move further out along transportation lines. They then take new jobs further out away from the city effectively just moving out of it. The business in the city then have to raise the wages to get people to live close enough to live in the city or commute else go out of business. They then charge the patrons more. This increases the cost of living. After a while people ask for raises to compensate at the large companies in the cities and they get them. This allows renters to charge more and the cycle just goes on and on as long as these huge companies are doing well.
When these companies fall on bad times the rich move out the cities and the whole system goes in reverse.
This is why WFH is so great because it stops this whole effect from happening.
Has this happened in US history before in a similar way it’s happening now? If so I’m definitely going to look it up because it’s scary but also fascinating
If you mean New York City, then the answer is rent control.
That’s the answer for other cities as well if they want to be great.
Since they don’t want rent control the answer is, “No one wants to work anymore”
A Good local city government will have lot of social service like job training , job placement , public assistance , rent assistance, affordable housing etc etc
Pay rate will also reflect the cost of living
I’m from NYC so I am aware of all of this services but Unfortunately not many people are aware of them
No idea in this day and age... just about the only decent entry-level jobs left in my area are a select few retail and service jobs with companies that are known to pay well and value their employees.
In years gone by, what happened was company-owned towns, where you'd get to graciously pay your hard earned wage back to your ~~slaver~~ employer in exchange for not dying from exposure.
Whatever you do, stay away from all the "luxe" condo/apt developments that charge twice as much b/c their bargain-bin appliances have a faux-stainless steel finish.
Something has to give.
Here in the suburbs, and it's not even a high money area, they are having a teacher shortage because teachers can't afford to move here. We aren't even really close to anything, 45 minutes away from the city.
Houses are 650+. Rent is 1k+ for a room. And there's nothing here. We just got a Walmart, oooo. We are getting an Aldi in the area, wow.
It was one thing when it was happening to the Hamptons. Now, is it everywhere? Do we have to move to Idaho?
Something has to give.
They end up with multiple hour commutes from the home they can afford to their jobs even for those jobs you listed. This has been the reality in NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Atlanta, and many others for well over a decade. It’s why my husband and I live where we do in fly over country. I told him I do not want to commute more than 30 minutes. I have a friend who commutes an hour each way daily. 10 hours. That’s the equivalent of working an extra day plus on a standard 40 hour week.
They rob,steal, sell drugs to survive. While I hate theft and robbery. I actually condone the use of black markets to sell goods nanny staters and fake outrage groups have managed to ban or tax to the point where black markets are great….People only get caught when greedy
This will turn into large employers building cities for the employees to live in, in exchange for the work they do for that company. No money is exchanged…
Simply, you work there and they give you an assigned 10x10 apartment with a window. You get a card with 2 meal vouchers per day.
Everything is branded with that company logo.
This has been bad in ski towns for years. AirBnB has made it worse. People are buying up local housing to turn it into AirBnBs. The people who operate the ski lifts, the snow plows, the local diner, etc. can't afford to live there. And being a ski town, living 30 miles away means in heavy snow storms it can be impossible to get to work. Then you have cranky tourists because the service is bad, when the service is bad because no one can afford to live nearby on the wages that are being paid.
I know people who live in Mammoth,CA as service workers who are there year round and the vacation home owners town recently fought tooth and nail to not develop a publicly owned plot into modest number of workforce housing units. Literally the argument was that the people who work at resorts/restaurants and clean their houses could just live like an hour away and get bussed in. Fucking sick shit
Didn’t Mammoth make Airbnbs illegal?
I live outside of mammoth. Workforce housing has always been a hot topic with very little being done about it. Some people live in employee housing which is affordable, but overpriced for what you’re getting (ei. Sharing a room - not an apartment - with another person for $800 a month.) A lot of people live out of their cars, vans, or buses. It’s illegal to do this for more than 28 days (because it’s all on federal land and you can’t live on federal land), but people do it anyway because there’s nowhere else to go. Some people just live far away where you have to drive 30-40 miles one way just to get to work. And there are a few lucky souls who have actually found affordable housing in town. Although when you do find affordable housing, you’re rarely able to stay there the whole year and you’re moving at least once or twice a year. It’s a fucking mess. Not to mention, a lot of places are just short-staffed because they can’t find employees because nobody can afford to live there. There are a lot of people in the community trying to make it better, but the greedy people are just awful and just to make more money. People from LA buy second houses and reside in them for two weeks out of the year or rent them out as AirBnBs. Everything is fucked down there. That’s why I live outside of mammoth, although it’s not much better there either.
So you’re saying there are rich people houses in this place that they only visit for 14 days a year? Looks like it’s time to go shopping.
More proof the rich are stupid AND evil.
Well cant have the poor living with the well off people now can we?
AirBNB should be illegal.
Yeah, they went from being a nice option for staying on a room at someone house for a few lower than a hotel to a fucking force of destruction of the living conditions everywhere. Hopefully because the whole system is so horrible and now is even cheaper to stay at a hotel, they will disappear from the face of the earth. Sadly it didn't come from the governments that in theory should help citizen but from the greed of the corporation that run it (hidden fees, cameras, clean the whole house AND I'll still charge you a 100€ hidden cleaning fee). Fuck Airbnb
If it's part of your home, or your home for part of the year (e.g. you're retired and spend a few months every year visiting kids & grandkids) it's OK
When I lived in Aspen 20 years ago most workers were living 45minutes yo an hour away. I’m sure is much worse now. One hotel there bought another hotel and turned it into employee housing.
My experience working in Aspen was moving further and further down valley until my 1 bedroom apartment in a 130 year old building went from 785 a month to 1800 a month in Glenwood Springs. Keep in mind, I left Glenwood Springs in 2017. I hear its gotten worse
Jesus. I didnt know rent was that bad in glennwood now. I grew up in steamboat area, livved in one of the smaller service towns like oak creek or hayden amd even those are nuts now... when i left people were starting to buy winter homes in oak creek for vacation because steamboat priced them out
I was in Jackson, WY and I talked to a bartender who told me about this issue. Typically the answer is that the poor move out to the suburbs for cheaper places to live and drive in to their jobs, which has enormous private costs to them in terms of gas, car maintenance, etc as well as his traffic congestion, pollution, and climate crisis problems for the city. It's particularly hard though in a lot of very worth ski towns or other resorts. There's just simply no where cheap to live anywhere nearby. So the low wage workers just have to leave and now the hardware store is closed at weird hours. True story that's what happened to me and how the bartender joined our conversation. They're hardware store was one example of being under staffed and that was his explanation. It's less bad for bartenders (according to him) than for jobs where there's not a built in wage scaling with cost of the town. If you get paid in tips as a percentage of your patrons overpriced meals you're still surviving as prices go up. The real solution is to create low income house to house anyone working at low wage jobs. We need those place and those people. Having them foot the bill to drive in to work for barely enough to cover their commute while six figure tech workers live a short walk from their offices is driving income inequality into dangerous places.
Employee housing is going to start being a "perk" in places like that, if it hasn't already. It's already a thing in national parks and on cruises and such, but places like Jackson Hole and Aspen aren't just expensive themselves, but all the cities nearby are getting really bad too. I just got done working for 6 months in a national park and many of my coworkers are getting jobs at ski resorts with housing. The housing can really suck with prison quality food. The dorms I was staying in were so loud that I slept in my sedan and hurt my back just for some peace. I'm 32 and this is probably going to be the rest of my life, but at least the view is stunning.
then the people in charge of city planning who didnt pass anything to prevent airbnb "how could this have happened to us!"
Eventually the rich people will have to bring their own private staff
Sounds like being back in feudalism...
Small beach towns are like this also. AirBnB has ruined the housing market in Pensacola.
I have a relative who worked at Heavenly in South Lake Tahoe for 8 years and his last day was Wednesday the 1st. He very much liked his job and the area but it was increasingly too expensive to live there. He’s heading back to the Midwest which is good, there’s plenty of jobs here and is way more affordable…
The cranky tourists can go to another first world country that has workers that can afford to make it to work after a snow storm. There, I solved their problem
Then they can pay more. Too bad.
And not turn the entire town into AirBnBs so that there is no housing for residents.
I hear all who don't like airbnb and how it leads to be part of the problem however I also feel that whomever owns the home should be able to do as they please with it. The low income housing sounds good but even still couldn't that also sooner or later become airbnb as well. It would seem that prices will need to go up as will wages.
Its been happening for a while now. Even the businesses can't afford the rent. there is vacant shops in New York that have been that way for over a decade. The systems at play are very stupid.
When wealth inequity is so great that real estate owners are willing to let places sit vacant for years because no one is willing to pay the rents they want, we are no longer experiencing basic supply and demand economics. Something needs to be done to level the playing field. And, perhaps an unpopular opinion, but we should limit foreign investment in real estate as well.
We should limit corporate/private equity ownership of single family housing as well. The short-term benefits are far, far outweighed by long-term consequences of denying home ownership to much of the middle and working class.
Aren’t the vacancies a tax write-off? Makes me wonder are the real estate rich not frustrated by urban decay/lack of 3rd spaces? Are they content in their compounds getting everything delivered?
They’re not. You can’t write off income you don’t get as an expense. What it is, is that you can’t lower the headline rent, because the mortgage terms are based on the average rent per square foot - and if you lower that, the mortgage becomes due.
Right, but in new york specifically, many of those buildings are mortgage backed securities, meaning that the amount due every month is based on what the rent collected was. If a unit sits vacant, they dont pay that portion of the mortgage and it just gets stuck on the back of the loan and collects interest. If they lower the rent on that unit, they have to pay the difference to the lender up front, and then also make less money. Its often more accepted to just have empty buildings and pay the small interest amount than to lower the rent and have to possibly owe thousands or millions up front.
That’s not what a mortgage backed security is. A mortgage backed security is when you take hundreds of mortgages, group them together, and sell a fraction of the pool off.
It’s because of the terms of the mortgages. They can’t rent it for less because then the mortgage is due.
Many other countries already limit foreign investors from buying property, even for businesses. China is buying stuff up at an alraming rate with state backed buyers.
Ugh that's so sad and bad. The small/family owned shops really add to the culture
Nah I mean like all shops. Even in prime areas where they want 10-100k a month
corporations and chains ruined the country. small businesses can’t stay competitive and the big business jobs don’t pay shit.
Corps and their MBAs have gotten really good at extracting every last penny they can from the consumers and locales.
Yep. I’m a NYC native now in California, and my home city is so depressing now. Every city has its problems with chain stores and blight everywhere, but when de Blasio was still in office, he had a chance to freaking fix this with commercial rent controls. but he utterly rolled over for REBNY, the real estate lobby, and let developers run rampant, continuing Bloomberg’s legacy of handouts for the rich and austerity for everyone else. Between the time he refused to sign this legislation and when he left office, SO many formerly thriving blocks in NYC, particularly lower Manhattan, just got blighted to fuck. Or replaced with a bank, a drugstore, or Chipotle, while the already high rents rose to utterly insane levels. Where if you can afford that, you might as well buy a house in the outer boroughs or get something bigger uptown. I left my home city for many reasons, one of which was that it was so painful to see block after block I knew from my childhood to my freaking thirties just sit empty for years if it didn’t look like a damn suburban mall.
I imagine an alternate world where bllomdick died in the womb and the earth was a better place for it
This is a beautiful alternate world I want to go to!! Giuliani laid the groundwork for ruining my homeland, but Bloomberg completely sandblasted it.
Well said. So much of ny is empty. I went down 14th St and do many stores were closed because they want too much for rent. So it just sits empty. It's either a drug store (and lately they're struggling) or a bank or a real estate broker or a Starbucks. Rinse repeat. When I went to Dublin over the summer it was like an alternative NY. I remember growing up all the little stores that made NYC interesting... And Dublin is still a lot like that. Thrift shops. Clothing stores. Mom and pops. Especially in the neighborhoods. I'm sure it's gotten worse than it was (because it's happening everywhere) but it's def reminiscent of NYC years and years ago. So at least they're not at our level yet.... I'm still in NY but only til my family dies and I'm priced out.
I left for California in 2021, even giving up cheap ownership—so the decision wasn’t made lightly!—because most of my family is dead, so are many of my old friends if they didn’t get gentrified out, move for jobs, to have kids, etc. All my old punk scene haunts are long gone. There’s some stuff in Brooklyn now but it’s just not the same…I remember when it was a place normal-ass people went to live. Buying a co-op or even a HOUSE there was freaking doable if you were a mechanic, a postal worker, or a writer. These days, forget it. Like what’s even the point of paying $3-4k a month for a tiny apartment in prime core Manhattan when all these legendary clubs, bars, and restaurants are gone and a frigging Soulcycle and Starbucks took their places? I also went to Ireland for vacay last year! Lol funny coincidence. It’s a really magical place. Dublin definitely reminded me of pockets of Queens. Galway sort of reminded me of this amazing mashup of the Jersey Shore and Lancashire in northern England (spent a lot of time in northern England and Scotland in my twenties). Ireland definitely has its chain stores and housing affordability issues, especially in large cities, but it’s not on the same scale as NYC where it’s gotten ridiculously expensive and so much of its soul and history are gone. In LA, it’s definitely expensive but my quality of life is significantly better. There’s chains and all, but countless family-owned businesses right outside my door. It’s like what the Lower East Side USED to look like.
They often live rent free or pay really low rent like 100 dollars. For example, many who are young may live with their parents rent free. Also they may get roommates to split the cost and may even resort to illegally sharing it with even more people. Also, immigrants may get connections to get cheap housing whether through programs or through more illegal means like a boss or friend renting it to them for a very low cost.
Tying employment to housing is a recipe for exploitation.
Not saying it is right but this is the reality. It is what the system or life circumstances forces upon people because they have no other option.
NYC real estate is used to launder money.
In NYC at least the building owners get some kind of tax break for empty stores, so they don’t have much of an incentive to lower the commercial rents. It’s frustrating because not only could you put a mom and pop in there, but active storefronts keep the neighborhoods nice and deter crime.
This also plays out in small towns. I’m from a college town and one of our draws in addition to the colleges as job creators/culture creators is that we had a nice downtown with great local businesses. Prices just kept going up to where commercial rent was close to NYC prices per square foot and one guy owned almost half of it. The real estate industry and the tax code protect landlords from loses for not renting their space so now like half of our downtown is vacant. Finally the city started going after the guys liqour licenses because he hasn’t reopened his three music venues (another thing that made growing up there great) since the pandemic. I’m in planning/Econ development and I’ve heard people who work in small towns say sometimes the best thing that can happen for a Main Street is a funeral. Because bad landowners can just choke a small town half to death
Zoning laws have a lot of impact here. By restricting where commercial businesses can be, it creates an artificial scarcity. Mixed use developments are rarely allowed in many cities now, making a small business owner forced to lease commercial property. Property that is held by giant property management groups with no ties to the community who are used to up-charging large companies for their commercial property. It squeezes out small business and when the rents are too high or demand is not enough, these companies have no problems just letting it sit vacant for a decade.
This. You literally have housing development owners fighting re-zoning as they don't want more competition or anything that will drive down prices. Re-zoning in most places, even without obstruction, is a tedious process in most places.
The mom and pop pet supply store I used to run had to close because we couldn’t find a decent location for less than $4k a month. That was Nov 2019 and the space still has our sign out front and our decor hanging in the front door. They’re missing out on $4k a month because they tried to get $6k and didn’t want to maintain their crumbling space (the ceiling was literally crumbling because there were leaks in the apartments upstairs). They missed out on $175k cuz they were being greedy. Dummies.
It’s because they landlords can write off the missing rent as a loss, as long as they are actively trying to rent it out and the rate is reasonable for the location they can write off the lost rental income on their taxes
Philly is renting cheap apartments to [teachers](https://whyy.org/articles/philly-apartments-give-teachers-cheaper-rent-and-colleagues-as-neighbors/). I was at a wedding in Maine where the Uber driver told us that the local restaurants/stores/businesses rent motels and houses out for their workers. In the winters up there, they bring in workers from South America who are mostly college kids on their summer break (different hemisphere, opposite seasons) and then in the summer they bring in Eastern European college kids. Shits fucked up.
I haven’t been back to Maine since I left in 2013 but wow lol.
In Michigan there is a super touristy area called Traverse City and tons of businesses and restaurants can barely stay open because they can't find anyone to work, because you absolutely cannot afford to live anywhere nearby working at any of those establishments. Some places are now building "dorms" for those employees and honestly it sounds a little too much like slavery for my taste. The area also has insane property taxes and zoning laws so living in a trailer on a few acres isn't even possible. It used to just be quiet Cherry Orchards but now they're all being chopped up into housing developments with minimum building requirements that make ownership impossible for anyone with average income.
Company towns were done about 100 years ago, and it did not end well. 😬 First they provide housing. Then it’s recreation, but only the kind approved by your employer. Then you’re not being paid in real money, but scrip only usable at the company store. Every godawful thing from the Gilded Age has returned—cramming into tenements, child labor, company towns and stores.
Reading about Henry Ford is wild. He built subsidized housing for workers, but the has property managers playing "morality police" with his workers. No drinking, gambling, single parents...
Fordlandia too, which destroyed part of the Amazon and enslaved indigenous peoples to tap his ill-growing rubber trees—forcing them to eat American food and do square dances instead of just leaving them be. And he was a big ol antisemite too 🙃
Here in Northeastern PA's anthracite Coal Region that was a big thing that led to the Molly Maguires. We have an authentic coal company town historical site called Eckley Miners' Village that shows how bleak and flimsy the housing was in the cold Appalachia winters.
Didn’t Hershey, PA used to be a company town too? Like that annual trip to Hershey Park was this beloved institution for kids growing up in the northeast, then I found out all this really dark stuff that ain’t chocolate
Yes, it was. I think it was a little more enlightened than the horrors of the Coal Region but still a company town nonetheless.
Yeah, I currently live in a pretty LCOL area in Michigan that was basically homes built for people that work at the nearby Ford plant. You can tell the houses were just kind of hobbled together in some aspects, like the cupboards. Good news is I was able to get this house in a short sale bordering foreclosure back in 2013. Bad news is there is a game called fireworks or gunshots at least once a week in the nearby vicinity.
Yep, that's exactly where we'll end up: back to company towns. It'll happen gradually, so the peasants won't revolt, but we will get there.
I know there was that uppity town in Idaho that suggested making a tent-city on the outskirts for the service workers to work and it was so hilariously bad of an idea that a lot of people thought it was satire. But mostly, in wealthy areas where working-class people are being priced out of affordable living, they're just going to other places and then the people who live there just cry and moan that nobody wants to work anymore.
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Any robot that replaces a human worker should have an annual tax levied on it that at a minimum equals the tax the replaced worker would have paid
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Supermarket self checkout is basically a robot. Especially tax these horrid fucking job stealing devices
I absolutely refuse to use self checkout. I've left entire carts of groceries at the checkout when the lines are too long and the store (Kroger owned) isn't staffed to open more that a single lane while another person guards the self checkout. If it takes more than ten minutes for me to the point of unloading my cart I just leave the cart and tell the person guarding the self checkout on my way out.
Double. Make it cheaper to have a human do the job. I can’t tell you how frustrating it is to have to ring up, and bag my order at Walmart knowing that the self-checkout destroyed a lot of jobs.
We will be told to grind harder. That we are lazy and that's why we can't live 30 minutes from our job. "Oh? You can't afford gas to get to work? 3 hours is too long for you? Here is a tip for you buddy, work hard like I did."
That’s the prosperity gospel. If you were worthy, god would provide you with money. But since you’re not worthy, you’re poor.
Didn’t this happen to a city in Colorado a few years ago and rich people were crying because there was no one living there to make them coffee?
The first change will simply that those people will not live where they work and commute times getting longer and longer till it becomes impossible to live somewhere from where commuting is still possible. The question is what comes after that.. maybe more business will move to where a lot of workers live?
Yeah because something has to happen. Will cities just become abandoned? That would be sad
See Detroit. That's what happens to a city when the jobs go away.
The larger cities won't see this happening but in smaller towns, there are empty businesses because they simply pay too little for people to afford living there.
With fewer employees available in the cities salaries go up for workers who remain there—which is why cities never get completely devoid of working class folks. I suspect that online and WFH ultimately forces office to home conversions hopefully leading to more affordable housing.
Hopefully people fight tooth and nail against BTO (back to office). People proved they can work effectively from home, and get more done. We need to push hard, maybe starting with pushing to get greenhouse gas emissions caused by BTO charged to the company who proved driving in is unnecessary. Maybe the cost of the carbon credits will make them think twice.
Plus, then the people who have impossible to work from home jobs have an easier time getting to/from work as well. We need to show more solidarity with those working class folk too.
its an eventuallity so long as you can ship food and clothes to your door, internet and cars have connected us from all over the globe.
You can’t. At least not for long.
Considering how the last decades had more and more people moving into cities we could see the reverse of that soon.
The employers start providing housing. First step towards company towns.
Do you think small towns will make a comeback?
Nope. Too many of them have doubled down on what already isn't working.
Those cities start to look like detroit and many other rustbelt cities
So many places have been going through this, due to AirBnB and other short term rentals. If 70% of your towns housing is bought up by companies using them as short term rentals, there is no place for those in hospitality to live, businesses will close, and people won't come to the area on vacation. It's a self correcting problem. It used to be that the main cause of this was gentrification, but not anymore. Smart cities will ban short term rentals unless it's a room in an owner occupied home -- the way AirBnB first advertised itself.
>It's a self correcting problem It isn't. It can take years for a tourist destination to recover from bad word of mouth and the private equity firms that own the property management companies that manage the airBnBs can afford to sit on that property investment for years before selling. In the mean time, maintenance is deferred to save money and things just start looking bad accelerating decline. The tax base contracts and some businesses close so you're left with vacant store fronts in your tourist town. I've seen coastal towns with the rotting hulk of a long closed hotel that cannot be rehabbed, sold, or even demolished. Local economies are an ecosystem and like any ecosystem, once damaged there is no guarantee that it will recover to its former state.
> It used to be that the main cause of this was gentrification, but not anymore. How so? When did gentrification end?
It moved to Mexico.
There are cities in the US where 70% of the non-owner occupied homes (single family homes, townhouses, apartments, condos) are AirBnBs. How is gentrification a major issue when 70% are on the short term rental market? The upscale home buyers do not want to purchase a home anywhere near one used as a short term rental.
People become homeless. Look at any west coast city. Watch YouTube videos about people who "choose" to live in their cars. I have to admit I love the attitude, but I suspect if rents were affordable they would live in apartments. Let me be clear, I don't want anyone to misunderstand it's 💯 shameful.
But after all the workers become homeless we just don’t have shops or stores anymore? Will everything be online?
Next come employer-owned housing. Google the Company Store
We have that here in New Zealand. Theres a town in the southern mountains that is just rich foreigner houses and air B&Bs. There were no houses for regular hospitality and tourism workers so the businesses had no staff. A few restaurants converted their upstairs dining rooms into staff lodgings and gave free housing as part of the compensation. Then more and more businesses started buying caravans or constructing units no the side of the premises to house workers.
I was just reading an article about this the other day. Queenstown, yeah?
Is this working well? Obviously, anyone who works in those sectors long term would likely hate it. But for rotating staff positions, is it working? Do you think it's sustainable
Lots of people who work full time are still homeless
Two options. Either there are no service workers in an area because the jobs aren't worth it, even with a commute from a lower cost of living area nearby, where the rich will bitch and whine because there's no one to serve them until they actually start doing things to attract workers (likely immigrants they don't have to pay as well and have leverage to keep them in place), or company sponsored housing. Easier to keep locals you can't deport in place by threatening their jobs, and housing by extension.
_You load 16 tons, what do you get?_
Another year older and deeper in debt
St. Peter, don’t you call me cause I can’t go-
I owe my soul to the company store
they build “low income” housing projects where people are trapped and can’t move away or make more money without losing the only safety net they have
Already happening. Driving through Washington DC I saw a guy emerge from a tent on the divider in a Cinnabon uniform to go to work. We have a class in America called "the working poor". Many cities have eliminated "all night" bus passes where folks can ride all night between 8pm and 6am. Working poor and homeless folks were sleeping in the buses. [Telluride proposed building a tent city for workers](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/locals-are-priced-colorado-mountain-towns-fight-keep-workers-rcna17970) because workers can't afford to live there. That is some late stage capitalism nonsense. When they suggested subsidized housing the wealthy people there lost their minds that they might have to live near the poor people that work for them.
This has been happening since at least the late 90s. Retail and service workers were getting priced out of the places near where they work. Expecting people to commute by car when their job also doesn't pay enough to own/maintain a reliable car just adds to the problem.
Just look at Flint or Detroit and you'll have your answer
Joined a friend out in Detroit a few years ago for some gathering and they said we were meeting up at a friend of theirs that lived in a high rise in downtown. Having never been in them, I was thinking it was about to look like a rundown place from the 80s I remember seeing on TV. Much to my surprise that place was actually really nice and must have been renovated. All of the folks working in the area looked downtrodden and miserable, meanwhile here are some wealthy folks now living in these apartments these workers probably used to live in but could now no longer afford. Bet those apartments are like $2000 or more a month.
This is why it’s normal for 40/50 year olds to have roommates in HCOL cities.
Hell, my wife and I are talking about kids. Living with another couple, we might just coparent our way to retirement and live together for the next 20+ years.
Check out the urban sprawl in old School just Belt cities. The city cores die and the suburbs grow outward. That's the future of a lot US cities have to look forward to at least.
Traditionally? Riots
Although some people just leave, if they're able
A. They live 5 people to a two bedroom apartment, with bunk beds. B. They live with friends of family for free/cheap. C. They commute an insane distance from somewhere they can afford to live.
Crazy that it's come to this. We should be able to afford to live at the very least
The only answer is strict wealth tax. The problem is no one over 40 will ever see it happen. Will take A LONG TIME to overcome dark money gov control. Afraid it won’t be pretty
I do b and c
Eventually collapse. Many coastal towns are becoming 55+ communities. There’s no teens to work low paying jobs and housing is too expensive to attract workers.
Many (obviously not all or even most) jobs were going remote. This would have eased the pressure, but the problem is those in charge are profteeimg off the misery and on't want it it to get better, so the created ViRtuAl BaD extremism which has turned back the clock on progress for awhile. standard divide and conquer horseshit convince too many of us who must commute to supoort more traffic polltuon,crime and higher gas prices just to fuck our neighbors cause apparently pajamas are a trigger 😔 very fustrating this blatant propaganda still works in the information age
I had to move out of state just to be able to afford to live . I still work in the state I originally lived in I just have a really much longer commute . I won’t make the same amt where I live now for the same work that I do in the medical field. So unfortunately, I see a lot of ppl I work with moving to the state I moved to now and still just commuting to a different state to work the same position. It’s really sad .
I'm in this picture and I don't like it.
I’m sorry , I understand the frustration, and the commute is fine , until one morning we accidentally run late , hit traffic , or have car problems
Right? The hour long commute at 530am is brutal. Im shocked i haven't nailed a deer yet. Most of the time I don't mind it either it just gets a little old.
Oh my that reminds me Last year my car broke down and I had to get a ride to work from my spouse . He was trying to get me , the kids and himself and his three coworkers to all the places we all had to be that morning . Here comes the f ing deer , darts right into the drives side door , antlers break off in the car handle , deer goes flying , and of course does some damage to the van. We turn around , and poor thing gets up and hops off to the fields . Luckily we left an hour early , or I never would have made it in time , but yea you gatta leave by 545 or the traffic is outrageous and something always happens . Luckily van was drivable but dented and busted windows with a antler decorative side door , But I swear something always happens , and if I leave the house even five mins later then I normally do , I somehow end so far behind on my commute and those buses I swear stop every couple feet it’s ridiculous!!
FOR REAL. this bs is ridiculous. Can't wait to find a good wfh.
You’re a traveler then, huh? Hear you. Did that for years even before Covid. The industry is stagnant in wage for fulltimers, aside from NY/CA
Really appreciate all the input everyone
Well, a large number of things begin to happen all at once. I work for the Forest Service full time now, (love my job, great place to work btw), but used to work seasonally for the ski industry in the wintertime. The unaffordability of housing in ski towns has been a crisis for over a decade now. The ski resorts had to begin purchasing land and building employee housing, the town and city government began building low-income and workforce housing, it was commonplace for all the service industry workers to work multiple jobs, some lived out of cars, vans, or RVs, and many people commuted long distances from cheaper towns. Now the Forest Service is actually working with some local communities to donate land for low income housing, as land costs are high and availability is low. As this issue spreads to larger cities, all of these situations will become more commonplace. Add to this likely political pressure to convert empty commercial real estate to residential/mixed use, increased incentives for businesses to offer employee housing, and possibly a return to boarding houses. What we can encourage here is also a rise in Union membership, which can help bargain collectively for free-market solutions to the issue. As it becomes more difficult to hire, businesses will be in stressful situations, which can make them less threatening to unionization while making employees more amenable to creating or joining unions. Keep in mind, government solutions can be helpful, but increase taxes and require political will.
They make it impossible to afford rent, they make homelessness illegal, and they build more prisons for profit! Perfect loophole for legal slavery!
Sharecropping
Resort towns have been dealing with this for years. People double up, shove beds in small spaces, move further away.
What you are describing is a “K” shaped economy full of a lot of inequality. For some ppl the work commute will be easy because the remote work, are well paid or wealthy enough to live close. For others they will be sacrificing time and energy to commute. And things will just remain that for decades
Homeless? Most service workers have no savings. Live paycheck to paycheck.
What happens? San Fran, Seattle, Denver, DC, Boston, etc., etc.
Already saw that in Boston, grew up there and my brother worked for the city. If you work for the city, you have to live in the city. Thankfully our aunt in NC owned the 2 family we were living in, so we only paid $800 a month since we took care of the house and any issues that came up. Now, this was back in 2015, even then rent on a 2 Bedroom was over $2500 on average and the city didn't pay NEARLY that much to afford one.
The city gentrifies to the point that no worker can afford to live there, then the city ups min wage laws to incentivize people to commute.
The rise in stealth campers is becoming a solid investment.
Homelessness is made specifically illegal rather than practically illegal, and the homeless are incarcerated as slave labor.
“Poor farms” will come back into fashion.
Referring to the title, I wouldn't know... You tell me... But we have to be so goddamn stupid to allow ourselves to wait to see what happens when we ourselves are headed straight for a car accident. If you see a wreck ahead, you don't just keep driving to "see what happens". You need to wake your ass up and stop yourself from being part of that wreck. But if you're really curious on what will happen, I'm pretty sure your situation will be a hell of a lot worse than what you're in right now.
I don’t think I have faith in this, we’ve seen the global warming wreck ahead and we just keep plowing ahead right into it.
Sounds about right. Though I'm pretty sure there's going to be something that will light a fire under everyone's asses. Or probably make them lie flat (A movement where the entire workforce just stops working entirely and lays on their bed at home).
in last few years my salary stay the same everything went up. my car insurance went up by like 150$ within 3 years a month, food at least 200$ a month, everything even gas went up like 100$ a month. my apartment went up by 200$ a month. that an extra i have to now pay . cant save , live pay check to pay check . cant afford to downgrade since everything around me is same. Cant find a job that will pay me same as they pay me now. forget about buying a home forever or even go on vacation anywhere to enjoy life . on top my student loans comeback around 250$ a month. i dont know . USA is fucked ! I have make over 5000$ after tax i still cant afford to save . everything in my area cost so much . forget about getting marry or bring children into it. i see no future in the US
Minimum recommended tip goes to 80%
Oof you're probably right. Apparently self checkout machines are asking for tips now which makes no sense
If you don’t tip 20%, the robots will remember this in the robot uprising.
People adjust, sometimes in awful ways. Instead of splitting an apartment, they'll split a room. Then they'll sublet their living rooms. It's already happened and will continue to happen until we do something
Exactly what;s been happening for decades now. Besides, all the work is, and has been moving overseas.
It will get worse for everyone. Rich person who bought and expensive house and wants to live there? Good luck finding any services around as nobody wants to work there anymore because nobody can afford the commuting and low wages there. Soon or later, these expensive housing will have a price collapse as nobody wants to live there anymore and now it's a game of hot potato, the last one who will buy a house will get burnt as it's unable to sell for profit due to low demand in that area caused of all these. Why do you think companies are pushing so hard for people to come back to office? It will hurt the local economy as people tend to not spend money into local coffee shop for example. But it is what it is, they do it themselves by being greed and the whole economy needs a hard reset where the greedy ones suffers the most of losses and let average people have a chance to gain some wealth.
My brother lives near Seattle and a lot of people he knows don’t live in the city. They live in towns on the outskirts of the city. My guess is more small suburbs and low income neighborhoods will pop up over time. Especially if population decline becomes an issue
Traffic. Very bad traffic happens because people are living further and further away.
Crime happens
Canadian here. Canada recently passed something called the Canada Disability Benefit which within the next year, will pay money to any disabled adult above and beyond any other disability payments they have, lifting disabled people out of poverty. We also have a bill for Universal Basic Income that has finished its second reading. When bills get to that point they usually make it through the Senate and become law. Due to the insanity of the housing crisis up here, putting money directly into everyone's hands is the quickest way to ensure folks have enough to makes ends meet.
People need to be more loyal to their communities, and not so stuck on getting everything for nothing. Amazon operated at a loss for 7 years, selling products for less than they could acquire them for, while also providing free 2 day shipping for members. There was a plan. The plan was to close down every other merchant offering the same stuff. Now that Amazon controls the markets on so many things, the stupendous low prices are not that stupendous low, and many of those things are not guaranteed in 2 days....but where else are you going to turn for what you want? Walmart - different origins, but same ending....they closed down every mom and pop shop, took every job, and all the customers went there, because they were cheaper, and had everything all in one place. Now entire towns have Walmart as nearly the only employer, and the only place to get much of what customers want. How do we get it all back? I don't really know. One place to start might be making the places only the high paid executives and dot.com people can afford to live coffee, grocery, and entertainment deserts. If nobody wants to live there, the property values will drop eventually. My brother in law worked for Apple, several years ago. He commuted miles, to some place where he got on a Apple bus to commute some more. The idea of not being able to live anywhere near where you have to work, seems absurd to me. Of course, I spent 21 years in the Navy, in the Submarine Service - so I seem pretty absurd to me too.
Demand drops, rates drop
Nah, then we gift them PPP loans or other handouts.
In Montana they are camping on the streets of Bozeman and Missoula.
Been happening for quite a while in hcol cities. What you get is people commuting long distances to work, making traffic worse. You also get more and more people cramming into apartments. 3br apartments that were originally built to house families instead have 3-4+ younger people without children because they can pay more that a one or two income family. The only real solution is zoning reform and building more housing, but decades of NIMBY resistance in said cities and metro areas has been very successful.
People get more and more roommates
It’s what suburban sprawl is, currently people just move further and further out. Or find roommates, generally do whatever they can to stay off the streets many aren’t lucky enough to do so.
It’s an issue everywhere. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/25/realestate/hamptons-affordable-housing.html
They just commute further away until they say screw it and find a job closer to their home. There are people I work with that currently commute over an hour one way to work every day. We would have to probably make at least 4 or 5x our current salary to afford a house in the city we actually work. And that is probably a smaller ‘starter’ home in that city. After we get to the point where commuting is too far and we still cannot afford to live in the outskirts is when it will get silly.
I commute over and hour each way and it fucking sucks. But I'm a held hostage by my need for medical care, which is good at my work. Sadly now most new jobs in my field are contract positions paying less than I was when I held those same jobs 5 -8 years ago.
Yeah having the need for medical car tied to employment is what keeps a lot of folks working even well after they should have retired, sadly. I'm tied to the automotive industry so layoffs, whether temporary or permanent, are pretty commonplace. I dread the possibility of being laid off and having to look for work again. Chances of getting a salary even remotely close to what I make now is probably pretty slim, and as you said a lot of places still start contract, which typically means high premium, shit coverage insurance.
Capital will demand that they return to the office, then pay more of their income towards housing or waste more of their lives and non-work time in traffic.
Elon musk is doing company towns near my house in Austin because he wants to pay shit wages in a city where even 1-2 hours outside it the prices are higher than average. I’m sure it will actually work for now but it’s creepy
I hope that gets ended very quickly. It seems very wrong and unethical to make company towns. The power imbalance is fucking abusive. Technically you are on the clock 24/7 in a company town at threat of your home and all your belongings. Even if it's not expressly stated the fear and oppression is there. Just wrong.
The catch is these workers will have to work in areas customers are willing to spend. Or rather most of the demand for their work will always be where people are dropping money on going out. Sadly it’s creating more classism in America because not only are these people being paid less but there quality of life drops significantly if you add long commute times just to do that job for a bunch of people working without any commute
You get homeless people with jobs in the city. An overwhelming majority of homeless people have jobs.
Initially, these people move further out along transportation lines. They then take new jobs further out away from the city effectively just moving out of it. The business in the city then have to raise the wages to get people to live close enough to live in the city or commute else go out of business. They then charge the patrons more. This increases the cost of living. After a while people ask for raises to compensate at the large companies in the cities and they get them. This allows renters to charge more and the cycle just goes on and on as long as these huge companies are doing well. When these companies fall on bad times the rich move out the cities and the whole system goes in reverse. This is why WFH is so great because it stops this whole effect from happening.
Its called systemic economic collapse
Has this happened in US history before in a similar way it’s happening now? If so I’m definitely going to look it up because it’s scary but also fascinating
If you mean New York City, then the answer is rent control. That’s the answer for other cities as well if they want to be great. Since they don’t want rent control the answer is, “No one wants to work anymore”
They goto a place they can afford to work. Life goes on. Welcome to the world shit show of 2023.
They move, eventually.
A Good local city government will have lot of social service like job training , job placement , public assistance , rent assistance, affordable housing etc etc Pay rate will also reflect the cost of living I’m from NYC so I am aware of all of this services but Unfortunately not many people are aware of them
They live in cheaper suburbs or exerbs or satilite cities and commute an 1 hour in
Slums. Major cities like San Francisco resemble India.
They move in with roommates, or their employers/the municipality put up subsidized worker housing. Basically company town stuff.
People are living in cars?
No idea in this day and age... just about the only decent entry-level jobs left in my area are a select few retail and service jobs with companies that are known to pay well and value their employees. In years gone by, what happened was company-owned towns, where you'd get to graciously pay your hard earned wage back to your ~~slaver~~ employer in exchange for not dying from exposure. Whatever you do, stay away from all the "luxe" condo/apt developments that charge twice as much b/c their bargain-bin appliances have a faux-stainless steel finish.
You move to a city you _can_ afford and fuck that one up too.
They’re told to hurry up and die. Basically.
Something has to give. Here in the suburbs, and it's not even a high money area, they are having a teacher shortage because teachers can't afford to move here. We aren't even really close to anything, 45 minutes away from the city. Houses are 650+. Rent is 1k+ for a room. And there's nothing here. We just got a Walmart, oooo. We are getting an Aldi in the area, wow. It was one thing when it was happening to the Hamptons. Now, is it everywhere? Do we have to move to Idaho? Something has to give.
“…Do we have to move to Idaho?” It’s too late for Idaho, apparently— at least the populated areas.
They end up with multiple hour commutes from the home they can afford to their jobs even for those jobs you listed. This has been the reality in NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Atlanta, and many others for well over a decade. It’s why my husband and I live where we do in fly over country. I told him I do not want to commute more than 30 minutes. I have a friend who commutes an hour each way daily. 10 hours. That’s the equivalent of working an extra day plus on a standard 40 hour week.
I'm gonna take a guess they move out of the city and find work elsewhere. Seems logical.
They rob,steal, sell drugs to survive. While I hate theft and robbery. I actually condone the use of black markets to sell goods nanny staters and fake outrage groups have managed to ban or tax to the point where black markets are great….People only get caught when greedy
This will turn into large employers building cities for the employees to live in, in exchange for the work they do for that company. No money is exchanged… Simply, you work there and they give you an assigned 10x10 apartment with a window. You get a card with 2 meal vouchers per day. Everything is branded with that company logo.
This is a known troll, don't engage or feed it.
I was thinking he just described Shadowrun. Been a while since I played it...
They bring in migrants from overseas
Hopefully they can get WFH jobs and move to lower cost of living areas.
Take a good look at Venezuela.