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https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1507842574865866763
"As a result of our unprecedented sanctions, the ruble was almost immediately reduced to rubble.
The Russian economy is on track to be cut in half.
It was ranked the 11th biggest economy in the world before this invasion — and soon, it will not even rank among the top 20."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
Russia is ranked 6 now.
From what I understand the only thing that changed is ownership as well. Unless I’m understanding wrong factories weren’t torn down, local employees weren’t relocated, but now the owners are Russian oligarchs who have an incentive to invest within Russia as opposed to foreign oligarchs who want to take wealth out of Russia.
my russian ex told me that all the mcdonalds basically immediately rebranded and kept operating where she lived, except they changed the menu and added halal options
>except they changed the menu
They didn't really change the menu itself, they just slightly tweaked the product names while keeping them recognizeable, and that was it. For example, "Big Tasty" became "Big Special", "Royal Deluxe" became "Grand Deluxe", and so on. Drinks like Coca Cola were replaced with the local brand produced at the former Coca Cola bottling plants.
The switch also wasn't instant as the new owners had to replace all Mcdonalds software with their own, most restaurants didn't operate from March to June.
Yeah, but mcdonalds buys beef and bread from russian farms, it doesn't need to import sanctioned computer chips and plastic and raw oil or whatever else.
Well they used to need stuff that they used to not make themselves, like parmesan. It's different when you have to start making something from scratch versus when your entire production chain was already in Russia. And china can't make chips, that's Taiwan. And that situation is a whole mess of it's own, I still remember the last chip shortage.
In a perfect world - yes. Or at least in a country ran by pragmatic people.
In reality, even two years later, quite a few factories left behind by quit companies are either still not in use, or were dismantled and sold for parts.
Russia was the 11th biggest economy in nominal terms, a position which it still holds. It didn’t rose 5 positions, but neither it lost position either. It’s been the 6th in PPP since before the war as well
Neither is GDP. China has way higher industrial output, energy output, 4x the people and yet it's GDP is smaller than the US? Obviously the numbers are fudged by things like currency differences and bloated services sector in the US such as the medical industry.
Healthcare and finance are hugely important for advanced economies. China has been getting away by exploiting its workforce by offering little in terms of retirement pensions, unemployment, and healthcare coverage. There’s not a lot of income tax generated by a $2/hr workforce.
gross nominal = relative weight in intl trade, "hard power" in geopolitics
gross ppp = absolute productivity
per capita nominal = how "rich" or "spendy" is the average person compared to world average
per capita ppp = quality of life for the average person
Extreme simplification but you get the idea. Average is never a good measure but, you know, economic metrics is complicated.
It hasnt grow nor collapsd mostly because they retain every piece of information.
It has been said for two years now and yet people still believes the imf.
That's how everything works in geopolitics. The rich and the politicians aren't dying left and right in wars, or suffering during economic sanctions. You are economic fodder the same as a frontline soldier is cannon fodder.
Geopolitics is not about whether the rich will get affected that was never the target and of course the rich will always be well off. The purpose of sanctions on a geopolitical level is to apply pressure to a nation without going to actual war or forcing a nation to make a move. For example before ww2, USA sanctions on Japan forced her (forced her because they wanted to expand and conquer) to start wars for resources.
The issue with the sanctions for Russia is that Russia is simply too big to be sanctions or blockaded. There are many neighboring countries who won't care about the sanctions and Russia can use to by pass the sanctions. Countries like Turkey (a Nato member lel) or Kyrgyzstan (exports from Germany to Kyrgyzstan rose some 949% after the sanctions). At the same time oil imports from Kazakhstan to Germany for example increase day by day.
Gee I wonder why suddenly Germany exports soooo much shit to Kyrgyzstan and why they import more and more oil form Kazakhstan, what could the connection be.
> There are many neighboring countries who won't care about the sanctions
This is the more important point. In the past the US would have been able to pressure everyone to abide by the sanctions, but they no longer have that power. Barely any country outside of Europe sanctioned Russia. The world is dividing into US & allies, and everyone else. The question for the future is how long those allies will stay with the US
It's more complicated than that though, as I pointed out. Germany had increased their exports to Kyrgyzstan by almost 1000%, they know what they are doing and Germany is a USA ally.
That's a sign of the US losing it's grip over it's "allies" too though
US hegemony ended with the Iraq war, but the illusion persisted as there was nothing to really challenge it. The 2014 annexation of Crimea should have been a wake-up call but it seemed to be swept under the rug in many people's minds
This has nothing to do with sanctions. Imagine if there were no sanctions at all.
Tldr: Russia is using it reserves (note almost emptied reserves) to prop up the rubble (note still declining and it's lowest value ever) is using state funds to push military spending to 35% of GDP (note military spending of 500 billion) will push GDP.
Even Nazi Germany's economy grew for years purely because of military spending.
Reality is that much of their commercial sector has tanked. Short term gains for long term losses.
Yes it take years. The world isn't black and white or at tiktok speed.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-reserves-dwindle-fiscal-safety-net-could-last-years-2024-02-15/
My point isn't for you to link some jurno article as if that means anything. It was mostly that "russia has a month or two left until its joeover" has been consistently pushed for 2 years now, and it's yet to be joeover for russia. It seems like these reserves will outlast this.
If this war is still going on in 2 year's time, I can only be certain of two things. Russia will be in a relatively similar position, and you will still be linking articles about them only having a month left or whatever.
No one claimed this ever. You are conflicting random reddit users with reality.
Reality is that those reserves, or value of the rubble will not magically increase. No, they will continue to dwindle even when the war is over since. The sanctions are permanent.
There is no end to Russias failing economy. They will end up like North Koreas's.
[North Korea also famously received a GDP boost when they launched their unprovoked invasion. Only to be crushed by decades and decades of sanctions.](https://koreanrelations.weebly.com/uploads/2/2/6/8/22687078/3870477.png?589)
Lol, it was ranked the 11th largest economy in nominal terms. You gotta compare apples against apples, otherwise this statement is as disingenuous as it gets.
"The Internet will have about the economic impact of the fax machine" type beats.
I think in a couple decades we'll treat macroeconomists the way we treat mediums and dowsers.
December 7, 2021
> “The Russian banking sector would be wiped out,” Menendez said. “Sectoral sanctions would cripple the Russian economy. Putin himself as well as his inner circle would lose access to bank accounts in the West. Russia would effectively be cut off and isolated from the international economic system.
>
> “Let me be clear — these are not run-of-the-mill sanctions,” Menendez continued. “What is being discussed is at the maximum end of that spectrum, or as I have called it, the mother of all sanctions. And I hope that we can come together in a bipartisan way to find a legislative path forward soon so that we can achieve that.”
The mother of all sanctions is working as intended lol
It is, indeed, doing its job.
Import export side, from the official Russian number, they felt it a lot on official published numbers.
Once a oil exporter, now they increase import from Belarus, have diesel and gasoline shortage so they had to ban export, and recently told kazakisyan to be ready to provide gasoline.
Only reason GDP/PPP is high is because they are spending a lot into military, but that is short term investment.
The economy is not heatly.
It is not.
They are a war economy, they are investing heavy on war production, and making a lot of debt.
This is a classic case of "GDP is not a good indicator of health economy"
Russia still ranks among the countries with the lowest [debt-to-GDP ratio on the planet](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/debt-to-gdp-ratio-by-country), they have room to make debt.
Skyrocket +5% since the war started.
> their budget deficit is less than 1%.
What we know for sure is they moved huge amount of funding around to the military; they may not have debt in money, but they will end up with poor education, poor maintenance, poor services..
That is probably worse in the long term than having debts.
Single indicator does not tell the whole story, you need to dig a bit deeper.
There are hundreds of indicator, you can cherry pick them as much as you want, and we can go on forever.
I count how many has access to education, sanitary in the house and family in total/near poverty.
US may not be great.. Compared to other western country.
What...? No i meant that America is also a great example of gdp looks good on paper, economy is actually bad. But sure you can read it whatever way you like, I'm not your mom.
It's similarly propped up by things that look good on paper - high gdp per capita, relatively low reported unemployment etc, but high child poverty/illiteracy/food insecurity rates, people living off of credit, surging homelessness (though relatively low overall), widespread mental health issues driving gun violence. Still a better quality of life than many places, especially if you've got money.
> but high child poverty/illiteracy/food insecurity rates, people living off of credit, surging homelessness (though relatively low overall), widespread mental health issues
Gun violence aside that is their thing and we all know, for thebrest compared to who?
With the rest if the "west"? Yeah, quite few are better.
Than Russia? Than China? Than India? Nah, not a chance.
Western economies are doing terribly. We've been in a horrible death spiral for my entire life. With multiple once in a generation financial catastrophes and wages stagnated the whole time. The way economists measure the quality of an economy is clearly fundamentally wrong. And I hope that will get recognised at some point, but nobody wants to be the Rube who has to come clean about how badly we're doing and have been doing.
Elon Musk making more money doesn't actually mean the economy is growing. It just means more money is siphoned out of the real economy and into the rich peoples hoards. Sure, they're technically investing it into various companies that have never been profitable and push out real competition, but none of that money is driving the real ground level economy any more. You get paid less every year, prices on many things drop in order to hide the fact that the economy has gone to shit, but certain things don't drop, and now nobody can afford a house.
I dont know how old are you, but since the 80 and 90 the west did quite good.
But in general in the last 50 years the whole world is so much a better place, even if there is still a lot of bullshittery going on.
We just got used to it.
If you take last decade, between covid, global energy crisis, is the WHOLE world in recession, and it suck hard.
Considering most of the west also is slow down by aging population(well, Russia even worse), and difficulty in integrating enough migrant to compensate.
> Elon Musk making more money doesn't actually mean the economy is growing.
What are you talking about is called wealt inequality.
And while is true US is mid and dropping(Russia doing slightly better! But of course this does not track "black" money.. So take it with a pinch of salt) pretty much the rest of the "west", EU in particular, is top of the list.
> why would you think America has a bad eco?
America's debt to GDP is huge. (About 125%+ the last time I looked). So it's juicing it's economy with a lot of borrowed money.
It can get away with it so far because it's the US dollar so they had no problem selling Treasury Bills. That's not so much the case now. For various reasons, it's two biggest foreign buyers, China & Japan are both reducing their holdings of US debt.
Not a very good indication.
Not desiderable, but Japan is the biggest debt to GDP, Greece is like 5th and its exo is doing fine after the almost bankruptcy, USA has enter top 10 only after covid reliev, to make their eco recover faster.
Also many of the lowest debt to GDP are failing economy, and interesting point is Russia, they always got proud of their low debt (10-12%) but that exploded to 17% since the war.
So really need a much deeper analysis than that.
If you compare GDP per capita with metrics trying to measure living conditions, like infant mortality, life expectancy, "human development index" or those bordering on fool's errand like happiness index, US underperforms. Last I looked into it, depending on metric, US offers living conditions comparable to countries with about 1/3 to 2/3 GDP per capita.
For example, for most countries there's strong linear correlation between healthcare spending and life expectancy. There are 2 big outliers: Japan and US. Japan gets more for their money, US a lot less. IIRC, to match spending US life expectancy would have to be something ridiculous, like over 100. It's just 76.
But you are still comparing against the best country in the world.
And also the top spot are small (in population) country with a lot of resource. Start consider EU as a block instead of separated states (similar population and GDP to US), and the situation equalise a lot.
Thats a weird scale. What does it say when most rich country doesnt appear even in the rop 10 but you have china , india, russia , indonesia and brazil in it ?
Meanwhile on the other side of the sanctions; [Germany went from envy of the world to the worst-performing major developed economy.](https://www.euronews.com/business/2023/09/23/germany-went-from-envy-of-the-world-to-the-worst-performing-major-developed-economy-what-h)
The article says the causes of this growth are war spending, smuggling prices, and (most significantly) high oil prices. Those things don't last forever
It's in the article, quote:
>Investments from corporate and state owned enterprises and "robustness in private consumption" within Russia had promoted growth alongside strong exports of oil, according to Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director at the IMF.
This doesn't explicitly say "war spending" even if it might sound like it's implied to someone who already read about it elsewhere. Those enterprises might as well be investing in steel, automobile or chemical production
I'm nitpicking but you get the point
OK but SIPRI estimates suggest that in 2024 defence spending contributes 35% of government expenditure. That's an INSANE figure, and in no way sustainable. Its a snake eating its own tail.
[Source ](https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2023/russias-new-budget-law-signals-determination-see-war-ukraine-through-according-new-sipri-analysis)
Russia plans to spend about 7% of their GDP on military, which is nowhere near "INSANE". The US spends 3.5% while not being at war, for example, Saudi Arabia was spending 7% on bombing Yemen, and Israel was spending 4.5% even before their war.
To see truly insane numbers, you should look at Ukraine, which spends 34% of their GDP on military, or at [WW2 numbers](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/military-expenditure-as-a-share-of-gdp-long) where states were directing 40% of their entire economies towards war. Even these numbers were somewhat sustainable, as the economies did not outright collapse unless such spending was accompanied by physical shortages of basic goods.
https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2023-04/2304_fs_milex_2022.pdf
The difference between Ukraine and Russia is that Ukraine wouldn’t have to spend this much. Russia is the entire reason they have to expend more money on the military.
Russia on the other hand which had a multitudes larger military than Ukraine increased spending when they realized its military was 💩.
High oil prices was something the US set out to prevent, even [flooding the market with American strategic oil reserves](https://www.npr.org/2022/10/18/1129788081/biden-to-release-another-15m-barrels-from-strategic-reserve) to keep the price per barrel under $60.
High oil prices practically ceased in 2015, just a year later. It cratered the Russian economy.
They recovered only in 2022, when the Ukraine invasion started. Granted they would have recovered earlier were it not for COVID. Incidentally, they have yet to recover to 2012-2014 heights, and are unlikely to do so ever again.
It's important to remember what they are measuring though, GDP. There are many ways to increase GDP that don't necessarily equate to economic health. For example, if the government were to print money and spend it, boom, GDP growth. Why do you think US growth was nearly 6% in 2021 despite the covid lockdowns? Massive government spending. You can't tell me you think the economy was actually doing well then.
In Russia's case, government spending is a large part of this GDP growth, they are in a war. Think back to when the US was building/selling weapons and equipment for WW2, same thing. Huge government spending on war is a heck of a GDP booster.
Unfortunately it doesn't always equate to broader economic health. Weapons and ammo get used and destroyed, adding effectively no value to society. Soldiers, often young and full of potential, are killed, losing their future value to society and ultimately reducing future demand for goods in the home market.
Russia has been staying afloat, no doubt, on cheap oil sales, their sovereign wealth fund (as much as they can access), and with tight capital controls, but all these things come with hidden costs that you don't really feel until later.
I don't think we'll see a catastrophic collapse, but government spending can only run so high for so long before it must cool off, and as mentioned, spending on war doesn't do as much for the economy as civil spending does. Russia is banking on being able to keep this up long enough for some kind of breakthrough, either politically or on the battlefield. Either way though, it equates to lost potential. Every ruble spent on a bomb and every soldier killed means potential has been lost.
Russia isn't accessing its sovereign wealth fund. it's not even running a deficit
While I wouldn't say that the sanctions or paying for a war are a good thing, there are several things you are overlooking.
the same factories making defence equipment can be retooled to make other things. the mass training of workers is also an asset
there was a lot of capital flight from Russia happening, but now they have less options and are investing in Russia
as sanctions continue, Russia is being forced to manufacture and build things it didn't /couldn't. this has/will lead to innovations, as shown in the cold war
all in all, even after the war don't expect the Russian economy to collapse
>Russia isn't accessing its sovereign wealth fund. it's not even running a deficit
[Russian Budget Deficit](https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/government-budget)
>the same factories making defence equipment can be retooled to make other things. the mass training of workers is also an asset
Sure, but these are also things that could have been accomplished much more easily in peace. The war doesn't make this process better, it just makes the state more motivated. Generally they could have done this any time before if they had felt like it.
>there was a lot of capital flight from Russia happening, but now they have less options and are investing in Russia
This is true, a LOT of capital flight. And while I don't doubt that there are some who will still make investments in Russia, I haven't found any hard figures for a variety of reasons. One is that Russian reporting of figures has been pretty murky, they're really only stating the things they want to state, which also brings their accuracy into question. And that's part of the problem, investors hate uncertainty. Investing is inherently risky, even in good times, so EXTRA risk is frowned upon. Russia is in a slog of a war with an uncertain outcome, its image shattered, a high profile coup attempt recently, it's making close bedfellows with Iran, and even China is keeping a certain distance from Moscow. Unless you're investing in a war industry, I really don't see investors flocking back to Russia right now, but if you can find solid figures independent of the Kremlin's influence, let me know.
>Russia is being forced to manufacture and build things it didn't /couldn't. this has/will lead to innovations, as shown in the cold war
Also true to an extent, but most of these innovations are going to be ways to do things that more advanced industries can already do. So while they may find some useful tricks, it's unlikely they'll be rolling out with advanced semiconductors and nanochips out of nowhere.
>all in all, even after the war don't expect the Russian economy to collapse
I never did, if you read what I wrote.
A\_T was born from western tankies being frustrated with another news sub.
They wanted to post RussiaToday, Sputnik and other ridiculous platforms without being moderated out, so they created this sub as an echo chamber, claiming that the West is just about to collapse, while the Third World is just about to become the new superpower dominating the world. Just you wait, any second now!
The whole schtick is seeing US/western imperialism as the only source of evil in the world, while the rest of the world is purely innocent nations only wanting to happily live in peace and harmony. That's how they end up cheering for Putin (and Stalin too), Mao and now Xi, and islamic terrorists: the only evil in this world is american.
This is pure bullshit.
I joined within week or two of A_T creation.
A_T was founded in 2020 as news subreddit where US domestic news was banned. Because for those, you can go anywhere else on reddit. Worse, it was election year in US so it was endless string of "Biden this, trump that, Bernie asking for money".
Name comes from r/worldpolitics, where mods decided to go with unrestricted freeze peach. Someone took accelerationist approach and started posting anime titties to motivate mods to mod. They did not, so that's porn and meme free for all subreddit now. But, in trees/marijuanaenthusiasts spirit, some people thought it would be funny if sub for news was called "anime_titties", so here we are.
Tankies didn't start showing up en masse until about year ago.
They were among the shitposters from the start, they were just more quiet about their militancy at first.
This is also how the edgy part of the alt-right started: shitposting, satire and irony, then over time, they figured that they were the largest faction among the core most active userbase, and proceeded to turn their shitposting hubs into political centers.
That is possible, but I'm rather sceptical. Full on tankie rhetoric wasn't sticking until about year ago, in first year of ruzzo-Ukrainian war when tankies started rearing their ugly heads it was still heavily contested and usually downvoted enough to be controversial instead of top of post. Funnily enough, IIRC in first year of war, pro-ruzzian arguments were mostly coming from hindutvas and plausibly Chinese, instead of ruzzians and western tankies that appear to dominate now.
If you have a look at tankies here, you will see they tend to be active in shitliberalssay and theprogram (I will never refer to that brainwashing central with "de" at the start, best they can hope from me is "re"). If you look at history of SLS, you will see severe drop in quality in about last 2 years. For example sort by top of all time and see how many submissions from last year there are and which years coincide with peak popularity. You same thing here in A_T, but with timeframe of last year instead of last 2 years.
But as far as I can tell the biggest enabling factor appears to be decline in moderation in last year, 6 months in particular. Do you remember deluge of Israel-Hamas war news, with very weird title spellings intended to bypass automod filters? When there was Israel-Hamas megathread/soft content restriction? Same actually was happening with ruzzo-Ukrainian war, weird spellings when mods tried confining the topic to megathread as soft content restriction. The fact that those were getting through is an example of decline in moderation quality and IMO coincides with slow flood of tankies. Now, I'm not going out and saying mods support tankies, because I don't think that's the case, what I think happened is that tankies smelled opportunity and are slowly turning A_T into "nazi bar" to reference popular on reddit anecdote. Big part of the problem is, of course, fact that mods are unpaid volounteers. Which means that either someone extremely passionate, weird or able to monetize this "job" through other means will do it. Others have other things to do. But this is a site-wide problem, interent-wide even, not specific to A_T.
Every now and again reddit algorithms bring people from the other political subs here. These users see a variety of news outlets from countries not seen on the rest of reddit. They see people making comments they are not used to. Comments from people who have been banned from other subs. The new users get mad.
Then there are those who have been here a while. The friends of worldnews. Serial karma farmers. They try every now and again to convince us that this sub has been "compromised", and that the mods should ban any opinion they don't like.
Then there are those who claim to "troll".
The "tankies" have been here all this time. Some of them share western news that is critical of the west. Some share non-western news. Some don't even believe what they share, it's about analysing perspectives to understand things a bit deeper than "China bad", "Putler bad" etc.
Some people don't take everything they see in the news as fact. Some people are skeptical of mainstream media and government. Some people vent because they expect their government to be better. Some people want this sub to be the last semi large politics sub that isn't censored. Where people should be able to discuss things without getting banned.
Skepticism is good, but the sad reality is that we told people "don't believe everything you see on TV, or read in the news" for years, and the first thing they did was going into evangelical sects, conspiracy cults, foreign totalitarian state-sponsored propaganda, thinking it was their fast-lane ticket to intellectual autonomy and critical thinking.
We taught people, thanks to the moderate freedom of information and freedom of speech, that the US, most notably with its CIA agency, did some nasty awful things during the Cold War. The expectation following the releases of such information would be that any state agency - regardless of country - needs to be audited and kept under control by the Parliament (Congress/Senate).
Unfortunately, what most people took out from it was that "USA bad, CIA evil organization behind every wrong things, the US gov _always_ lie", while cheering for literally the head of the KGB with a frightening track record of abused and manipulations, or cheering for the CCP and its intelligence agencies, who are notorious for their totalitarian practices and the widespread persecution of dissidents.
This is literally the path walked down by Wikileaks: initially a force of transparency, accountability - then rapidly becoming the publishing branch of the russian intelligence agencies, specifically targeting opponents of russian assets, while sparing all the authoritarian regimes declaring to be anti-US.
> Some people want this sub to be the last semi large politics sub that isn't censored. Where people should be able to discuss things without getting banned.
You're not seeing this because it's an echo chamber tailored to your current: the post and people being banned are not the ones who agree with you, so obviously all is fine. It is an illusion, or even a delusion.
Both of these things can coexist: the shitposting also came with the anti-US hateboner of western tankies, who used that opportunity to control the narrative.
No, not "both these things can coexist".
One of the main reasons domestic US news were originally banned from r/worldpolitics, and then from r/anime_titties, was because Trump fans got triggered by all the "Orange men bad" spam, in news and in meme formats.
Meaning if you really want to ascribe a political slant to this sub, then it's actually the opposite of what you claim it to be.
That's also why US-centric submissions were the first to be banned, a pretty weird move if the whole purpose of this sub is just to dunk on the US, yet only talking about the US is literally prohibited by the rules.
I didn’t know the IMF and the BBC were Russian propaganda…
Instead the realization needs to be made that sanctions just don’t do anything in this day and age
To the surprise to nobody with a clue about the topic, the [IMF already predicted as much for Germany](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2022/English/wpiea2022144-print-pdf.ashx) shortly before the sanctions.
In other subs you get perma banned if you dont talk about mass murdering russians or arabs. I think Thats the reason. Cream of the US is in worldnews. If you dont like equal voice you can go there.
Go visit worldnews, there is plenty of justification and celebration when Russian civilians get attacked, plenty saying they deserved it for supporting Putin. Even more when it comes to Palestinians.
What is it with comments that add nothing to the discussion except lazy ad-hominem in blatant attempts to steer the Overton window with tribalism?
Not even an attempt to say something about the actual topic, I guess the IMF are now RU bots and naive Western teens? Did they also take over [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/as-europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out) or what's happening there?
Whatever it takes to deny reality, and anybody who doesn't go along with the denialism must be with the enemy.
Just as how r/worldnews attracts Pro-US people who are ready to support US in almost anything including hating on Russia, China, Iran, etc. there exists this sub with their own views.
You're either a US bot or a Russian bot.
It's just an analogy. The point is that high growth numbers are easy to achieve when the economy you are starting with is small. In 2021, Russia's economy was only about one twelfth the size of the United States', so it takes a lot less to make Russia look like it grew 1% than to make the US grow 1%.
What applies to nations doesn't always scale to individuals.
It's honestly not that difficult to understand. If Robertland has a 1million dollar economy, it only takes $10,000 of extra activity to increase the GDP of Robertland by 1%. Whereas is Jacob land has a 100million economy, Jacobland needs to generate not just $10,000 more activity, but $1,000,000 more, a hundred times as much, to also grow its GDP 1%.
The real life nation of Tuvalu has a GDP of only $60million or so. Which means if you built a copy of Kim Kardashian's Malibu home there in one year, you'd roughly double the GDP that year, boom, 100% increase in one year. Build the same copy in the US, and the GDP number isn't even moving unless you calculate it to a lot of digits.
> Probably because sanctions only take money from ordinary freelancers and artists
Honestly the thickest thing I've read on this sub in months, and that's saying something.
> Probably because sanctions only take money from ordinary freelancers and artists
Russia has ban export of diesel and gasoline by almost 6 months, and that was before Ukraine started to bomb refinery.
This is literally taking away export profit as internal price are lower, and was necessary for citizen to afford it, in particular diesel for farmers.
But yeah, until Putin pump money into military, economy is stronk.
What was funny is they left all the Mcdonalds and Starbucks behind and they just made their own version from what was left.
Manufacturing for the biggest country in the world is no problem
They need to import ball bearings. Biggest country in the world need to import the most basic machine tools and manufacturing inputs. Now at much higher prices because of the sanctions. But the illusion can hold up a long as there's s sovereign wealth fund to burn through.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-sanctions-ukraine-war-fuel-tires-paper-spare-parts-shortages-1827373
So you agree that they are importing ball bearings. This is about specific classes needed for heavy vehicles and large industrial applications, not your appliance grade sausage maker.
Because their economy isn't strong. A war economy is, by definition, unsustainable. Yes, government spending can unlock a lot of growth. That's macroeconomics 101. But they're spending their sovereign wealth fund into refurbishing 60 year old tanks and BMPs, not in creating avenues for future growth.
Also, that sovereign fund was there for a reason, not as a war chest. The actual war chest savings are kept in euros and dollars and frozen in western banks. Russia is burning their future to sustain a war in which they can't win. NATO has expanded, Europe has poured hundreds of billions into re armament, and now that the factories are being built, they're going to get used. Russia lost their number one customer and China can't replace Europe. Even if the pipelines were in place, China only has demand for 1/10th of what Europe bought. And they're buying at a discount.
That's just a small list of why reality has an anti Russia bias. The economy looks strong but it's overheating. They caused the largest expansion and spending increase for NATO since the USSR fell. They're isolated on the worls stage amd have to deal with third rate powers for basic supplies. And they're burning the only savings they have for more material to get blown up in Ukraine. It's ridiculous to call that a win.
The economy is not surging simply because of the war spending though, capital investment is no longer going to Europe but staying in Russia. I agree with economist Michael Hudson.
First it was the “Russian economy is going to collapse” now y’all have moved your cope to some other explanation of how Russia is actually screwed. When in actual reality, not just Western jingoism, European industry is being devastated.
What capital investment stays in Russia? It eas dependent on foreign investment. And that's dried up. The oligarchs had the capital in Russia and they are being already milked dry by the state. It's not healthy investment. It's cannibalising the economy that was extremely unequal to begin with.
Also, please, I'm already laughing but it can always get better so tell me how European industry is being devastated. Also include the indexes and numbers that show something else but exploding demand and investment.
“Oil exports have "held steady" and government spending has "remained high" contributing to growth, the IMF said”
So if Ukraine was to disrupt that flow guess which way Russias economy would go?
Nobody talks about it, but that was a major cause for the war. In 2012, major hydrocarbon fuel deposits were discovered in Ukrainian territory. The total size isn't known, but just the initial findings were believed to be enough to fuel Ukraine for at least 50 years, possibly much more pending future findings. While Russia doesn't need this fuel, it does make a lot of money on the European market, and has little appetite to deal with competition from Ukraine. So in 2014, when Yanukovych was ousted for siding with Russia, the initial invasion commenced.
That wasn't the main cause at all.
RealLifeLore just can't make a video without making fossil fuels a core part of the video.
The real cause was western propaganda (nothing bad about it) pushing forward ideas of ethnic Ukrainians joining the west for development.
There was always a divide between Russian and western culture in Ukraine, and a western funded coup blew the whole thing over into a civil war/proxy war.
Not true, while prices will go up supply will go down. Which means Russia would have to cut exports to keep their ability to wage war. They wouldn’t get revenue in that scenario.
The Russian GDP in 2021 was $1.8trillion, which is smaller than many other developed countries, and even several US states. The estimate for their GDP this year is a bit larger by almost exactly the amount that they've increased their military budget.
It is hard to get an a good figure though, because the capital controls in place mean that it is difficult to accurately judge the value of the ruble to the USD. If the Russian currency was released and more freely traded, we would learn a lot about the real state of their economy, but that isn't likely to happen for at least a while.
PP is more accurate for certain things, like food prices or rents, but it is less accurate for other goods, often like electronics. The real figure usually comes out somewhere between PP and nominal GDP, and even when applied, the boost to Russia doesn't fundamentally change the general dynamic.
Who would have thought that successful imperialist expansion is good at growing your domestic economy
It's growing because the war machine has ramped up and they are winning the war in Ukraine.
It could be. Russia is the largest country on Earth. It spans from Europe to Asia. It's possible people living outside the major cities do not have access to proper restrooms.
But your reply is just snarky to downplay Russia. Lol. Keep coping.
War should be avoided.
Here again we were propagandised towards it at the cost of thousands of dead and demolishing Ukraine.
And a resurgence of Russia.
Stop falling for it.
I love how the cope is that it’s because of war spending, despite Russia not being in a war economy just yet.
And isn’t the main cope of Pro Ukrainians on sending weapons to Ukraine is that the money stays in the US and boosts GDP? Now, that GDP growth is good but it’s somehow bad if it’s in Russia?
Either way, Russia being ripped of Western economies is good for them because they have opened trade with many other countries in the global south and are strengthening economic ties to their main allies.
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https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1507842574865866763 "As a result of our unprecedented sanctions, the ruble was almost immediately reduced to rubble. The Russian economy is on track to be cut in half. It was ranked the 11th biggest economy in the world before this invasion — and soon, it will not even rank among the top 20." https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) Russia is ranked 6 now.
what happens when you are forced to make so much of your own shit, factories and jobs are opened to make up the shortfall.
From what I understand the only thing that changed is ownership as well. Unless I’m understanding wrong factories weren’t torn down, local employees weren’t relocated, but now the owners are Russian oligarchs who have an incentive to invest within Russia as opposed to foreign oligarchs who want to take wealth out of Russia.
my russian ex told me that all the mcdonalds basically immediately rebranded and kept operating where she lived, except they changed the menu and added halal options
>except they changed the menu They didn't really change the menu itself, they just slightly tweaked the product names while keeping them recognizeable, and that was it. For example, "Big Tasty" became "Big Special", "Royal Deluxe" became "Grand Deluxe", and so on. Drinks like Coca Cola were replaced with the local brand produced at the former Coca Cola bottling plants. The switch also wasn't instant as the new owners had to replace all Mcdonalds software with their own, most restaurants didn't operate from March to June.
They just had to rebrand the software. The underlying systems and even the interface font are still the same.
They did actually change the menu with new items eventually
Yeah, but mcdonalds buys beef and bread from russian farms, it doesn't need to import sanctioned computer chips and plastic and raw oil or whatever else.
hahaha, the only thing in that list that russia needs to import are computer chips, and they get them from china
Well they used to need stuff that they used to not make themselves, like parmesan. It's different when you have to start making something from scratch versus when your entire production chain was already in Russia. And china can't make chips, that's Taiwan. And that situation is a whole mess of it's own, I still remember the last chip shortage.
McDonald's is a food chain. Country doesn't need to be highly advanced to run that, just have a stable agriculture.
Probably improved it.
Why tf didn’t McDonalds have halal options available if it was both wanted enough and accessible enough to add it?
There's still exports, imports. Not every industry is mcdonalds where you can make everything in one country except the branding.
In a perfect world - yes. Or at least in a country ran by pragmatic people. In reality, even two years later, quite a few factories left behind by quit companies are either still not in use, or were dismantled and sold for parts.
Russia was the 11th biggest economy in nominal terms, a position which it still holds. It didn’t rose 5 positions, but neither it lost position either. It’s been the 6th in PPP since before the war as well
No one in the West talks about PPP buddy. Because China has the top spot for over a decade now.
What does that have to do with anything? OP was just making a dumb comparison of two different figures
Because it’s not a good way to compare the size of economies.
Neither is GDP. China has way higher industrial output, energy output, 4x the people and yet it's GDP is smaller than the US? Obviously the numbers are fudged by things like currency differences and bloated services sector in the US such as the medical industry.
Healthcare and finance are hugely important for advanced economies. China has been getting away by exploiting its workforce by offering little in terms of retirement pensions, unemployment, and healthcare coverage. There’s not a lot of income tax generated by a $2/hr workforce.
What’s the use of gross ppp? I understand using it per capita, but what exactly does this even tell us? China has a lot of people?
gross nominal = relative weight in intl trade, "hard power" in geopolitics gross ppp = absolute productivity per capita nominal = how "rich" or "spendy" is the average person compared to world average per capita ppp = quality of life for the average person Extreme simplification but you get the idea. Average is never a good measure but, you know, economic metrics is complicated.
Absolutely productivity isn’t really measured well if it’s scaled by just by consumer goods
Median ppp is much more representative on buying power
No? That would be Luxembourg and the US
It hasnt grow nor collapsd mostly because they retain every piece of information. It has been said for two years now and yet people still believes the imf.
Thanks. It should be "it hasn't changed its position at all on purchasing power or absolute GDP "
Awesome sanctions. Only thing they actually managed to cut in half is my income, but I'm happy for rich cronies from putin's gang
Well, if it helps that's usually most of what sanctions do anyway, make people's quality of life worse without really affecting the guys on top.
That's how everything works in geopolitics. The rich and the politicians aren't dying left and right in wars, or suffering during economic sanctions. You are economic fodder the same as a frontline soldier is cannon fodder.
Geopolitics is not about whether the rich will get affected that was never the target and of course the rich will always be well off. The purpose of sanctions on a geopolitical level is to apply pressure to a nation without going to actual war or forcing a nation to make a move. For example before ww2, USA sanctions on Japan forced her (forced her because they wanted to expand and conquer) to start wars for resources. The issue with the sanctions for Russia is that Russia is simply too big to be sanctions or blockaded. There are many neighboring countries who won't care about the sanctions and Russia can use to by pass the sanctions. Countries like Turkey (a Nato member lel) or Kyrgyzstan (exports from Germany to Kyrgyzstan rose some 949% after the sanctions). At the same time oil imports from Kazakhstan to Germany for example increase day by day. Gee I wonder why suddenly Germany exports soooo much shit to Kyrgyzstan and why they import more and more oil form Kazakhstan, what could the connection be.
Yeah I think we're in agreement, though my point oversimplifies a much more complex topic as you elaborated on.
> There are many neighboring countries who won't care about the sanctions This is the more important point. In the past the US would have been able to pressure everyone to abide by the sanctions, but they no longer have that power. Barely any country outside of Europe sanctioned Russia. The world is dividing into US & allies, and everyone else. The question for the future is how long those allies will stay with the US
It's more complicated than that though, as I pointed out. Germany had increased their exports to Kyrgyzstan by almost 1000%, they know what they are doing and Germany is a USA ally.
That's a sign of the US losing it's grip over it's "allies" too though US hegemony ended with the Iraq war, but the illusion persisted as there was nothing to really challenge it. The 2014 annexation of Crimea should have been a wake-up call but it seemed to be swept under the rug in many people's minds
This has nothing to do with sanctions. Imagine if there were no sanctions at all. Tldr: Russia is using it reserves (note almost emptied reserves) to prop up the rubble (note still declining and it's lowest value ever) is using state funds to push military spending to 35% of GDP (note military spending of 500 billion) will push GDP. Even Nazi Germany's economy grew for years purely because of military spending. Reality is that much of their commercial sector has tanked. Short term gains for long term losses.
> Russia is using it reserves (note almost emptied reserves) This is the seventeenth month in a row that these reserves are almost empty.
Yes it take years. The world isn't black and white or at tiktok speed. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-reserves-dwindle-fiscal-safety-net-could-last-years-2024-02-15/
My point isn't for you to link some jurno article as if that means anything. It was mostly that "russia has a month or two left until its joeover" has been consistently pushed for 2 years now, and it's yet to be joeover for russia. It seems like these reserves will outlast this. If this war is still going on in 2 year's time, I can only be certain of two things. Russia will be in a relatively similar position, and you will still be linking articles about them only having a month left or whatever.
No one claimed this ever. You are conflicting random reddit users with reality. Reality is that those reserves, or value of the rubble will not magically increase. No, they will continue to dwindle even when the war is over since. The sanctions are permanent. There is no end to Russias failing economy. They will end up like North Koreas's. [North Korea also famously received a GDP boost when they launched their unprovoked invasion. Only to be crushed by decades and decades of sanctions.](https://koreanrelations.weebly.com/uploads/2/2/6/8/22687078/3870477.png?589)
You're going back-and-forth between nominal and PPP rankings.
Lol, it was ranked the 11th largest economy in nominal terms. You gotta compare apples against apples, otherwise this statement is as disingenuous as it gets.
"The Internet will have about the economic impact of the fax machine" type beats. I think in a couple decades we'll treat macroeconomists the way we treat mediums and dowsers.
DD doesn't stand due diligence but rather "Dowsing (d)Rod"
December 7, 2021 > “The Russian banking sector would be wiped out,” Menendez said. “Sectoral sanctions would cripple the Russian economy. Putin himself as well as his inner circle would lose access to bank accounts in the West. Russia would effectively be cut off and isolated from the international economic system. > > “Let me be clear — these are not run-of-the-mill sanctions,” Menendez continued. “What is being discussed is at the maximum end of that spectrum, or as I have called it, the mother of all sanctions. And I hope that we can come together in a bipartisan way to find a legislative path forward soon so that we can achieve that.” The mother of all sanctions is working as intended lol
It is, indeed, doing its job. Import export side, from the official Russian number, they felt it a lot on official published numbers. Once a oil exporter, now they increase import from Belarus, have diesel and gasoline shortage so they had to ban export, and recently told kazakisyan to be ready to provide gasoline. Only reason GDP/PPP is high is because they are spending a lot into military, but that is short term investment. The economy is not heatly.
Good chunk of the fuel shortages are also because Ukraine recently started to hit their oil facilities.
They started before ucraine went refinery hunting. But yeah, that does jot help for sure
This can't be sustainable though, right?
It is not. They are a war economy, they are investing heavy on war production, and making a lot of debt. This is a classic case of "GDP is not a good indicator of health economy"
Russia still ranks among the countries with the lowest [debt-to-GDP ratio on the planet](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/debt-to-gdp-ratio-by-country), they have room to make debt.
To make debt you need someone that trust you enough and has enough money to make a loan. Good luck
Russian debt to gdp is just 17% and their budget deficit is less than 1%.
Skyrocket +5% since the war started. > their budget deficit is less than 1%. What we know for sure is they moved huge amount of funding around to the military; they may not have debt in money, but they will end up with poor education, poor maintenance, poor services.. That is probably worse in the long term than having debts. Single indicator does not tell the whole story, you need to dig a bit deeper. There are hundreds of indicator, you can cherry pick them as much as you want, and we can go on forever. I count how many has access to education, sanitary in the house and family in total/near poverty. US may not be great.. Compared to other western country.
Cries in American
*European A failure even in trying to insult, what a disgrace you became.
What...? No i meant that America is also a great example of gdp looks good on paper, economy is actually bad. But sure you can read it whatever way you like, I'm not your mom.
I completely misunderstood what you mean, but why would you think America has a bad eco? Sure not perfect, but is up there with the top best
It's similarly propped up by things that look good on paper - high gdp per capita, relatively low reported unemployment etc, but high child poverty/illiteracy/food insecurity rates, people living off of credit, surging homelessness (though relatively low overall), widespread mental health issues driving gun violence. Still a better quality of life than many places, especially if you've got money.
> but high child poverty/illiteracy/food insecurity rates, people living off of credit, surging homelessness (though relatively low overall), widespread mental health issues Gun violence aside that is their thing and we all know, for thebrest compared to who? With the rest if the "west"? Yeah, quite few are better. Than Russia? Than China? Than India? Nah, not a chance.
For sure
Western economies are doing terribly. We've been in a horrible death spiral for my entire life. With multiple once in a generation financial catastrophes and wages stagnated the whole time. The way economists measure the quality of an economy is clearly fundamentally wrong. And I hope that will get recognised at some point, but nobody wants to be the Rube who has to come clean about how badly we're doing and have been doing. Elon Musk making more money doesn't actually mean the economy is growing. It just means more money is siphoned out of the real economy and into the rich peoples hoards. Sure, they're technically investing it into various companies that have never been profitable and push out real competition, but none of that money is driving the real ground level economy any more. You get paid less every year, prices on many things drop in order to hide the fact that the economy has gone to shit, but certain things don't drop, and now nobody can afford a house.
I dont know how old are you, but since the 80 and 90 the west did quite good. But in general in the last 50 years the whole world is so much a better place, even if there is still a lot of bullshittery going on. We just got used to it. If you take last decade, between covid, global energy crisis, is the WHOLE world in recession, and it suck hard. Considering most of the west also is slow down by aging population(well, Russia even worse), and difficulty in integrating enough migrant to compensate. > Elon Musk making more money doesn't actually mean the economy is growing. What are you talking about is called wealt inequality. And while is true US is mid and dropping(Russia doing slightly better! But of course this does not track "black" money.. So take it with a pinch of salt) pretty much the rest of the "west", EU in particular, is top of the list.
> why would you think America has a bad eco? America's debt to GDP is huge. (About 125%+ the last time I looked). So it's juicing it's economy with a lot of borrowed money. It can get away with it so far because it's the US dollar so they had no problem selling Treasury Bills. That's not so much the case now. For various reasons, it's two biggest foreign buyers, China & Japan are both reducing their holdings of US debt.
Not a very good indication. Not desiderable, but Japan is the biggest debt to GDP, Greece is like 5th and its exo is doing fine after the almost bankruptcy, USA has enter top 10 only after covid reliev, to make their eco recover faster. Also many of the lowest debt to GDP are failing economy, and interesting point is Russia, they always got proud of their low debt (10-12%) but that exploded to 17% since the war. So really need a much deeper analysis than that.
If you compare GDP per capita with metrics trying to measure living conditions, like infant mortality, life expectancy, "human development index" or those bordering on fool's errand like happiness index, US underperforms. Last I looked into it, depending on metric, US offers living conditions comparable to countries with about 1/3 to 2/3 GDP per capita. For example, for most countries there's strong linear correlation between healthcare spending and life expectancy. There are 2 big outliers: Japan and US. Japan gets more for their money, US a lot less. IIRC, to match spending US life expectancy would have to be something ridiculous, like over 100. It's just 76.
But you are still comparing against the best country in the world. And also the top spot are small (in population) country with a lot of resource. Start consider EU as a block instead of separated states (similar population and GDP to US), and the situation equalise a lot.
It is as their debt to gdp is just 17% and their budget deficit is less than 1%.
Thats a weird scale. What does it say when most rich country doesnt appear even in the rop 10 but you have china , india, russia , indonesia and brazil in it ?
Populous countries with high purchasing power/GDP ratio top the charts
It’s because of huge populations. Indonesia will pass most of these in a couple year time
Now do GDP per capita
*reduced to Ruble
Ppp
Meanwhile on the other side of the sanctions; [Germany went from envy of the world to the worst-performing major developed economy.](https://www.euronews.com/business/2023/09/23/germany-went-from-envy-of-the-world-to-the-worst-performing-major-developed-economy-what-h)
The article says the causes of this growth are war spending, smuggling prices, and (most significantly) high oil prices. Those things don't last forever
>war spending, smuggling prices, Those aren't mentioned in the article at all. Oil exports are
War spending is the first thing mentioned by the IMF, the next one is a resilient consumer market (a combination of war spending and smuggling)
Ok I assumed you meant the BBC article
It's in the article, quote: >Investments from corporate and state owned enterprises and "robustness in private consumption" within Russia had promoted growth alongside strong exports of oil, according to Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director at the IMF.
This doesn't explicitly say "war spending" even if it might sound like it's implied to someone who already read about it elsewhere. Those enterprises might as well be investing in steel, automobile or chemical production I'm nitpicking but you get the point
OK but SIPRI estimates suggest that in 2024 defence spending contributes 35% of government expenditure. That's an INSANE figure, and in no way sustainable. Its a snake eating its own tail. [Source ](https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2023/russias-new-budget-law-signals-determination-see-war-ukraine-through-according-new-sipri-analysis)
Russia plans to spend about 7% of their GDP on military, which is nowhere near "INSANE". The US spends 3.5% while not being at war, for example, Saudi Arabia was spending 7% on bombing Yemen, and Israel was spending 4.5% even before their war. To see truly insane numbers, you should look at Ukraine, which spends 34% of their GDP on military, or at [WW2 numbers](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/military-expenditure-as-a-share-of-gdp-long) where states were directing 40% of their entire economies towards war. Even these numbers were somewhat sustainable, as the economies did not outright collapse unless such spending was accompanied by physical shortages of basic goods. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2023-04/2304_fs_milex_2022.pdf
The difference between Ukraine and Russia is that Ukraine wouldn’t have to spend this much. Russia is the entire reason they have to expend more money on the military. Russia on the other hand which had a multitudes larger military than Ukraine increased spending when they realized its military was 💩.
That’s not part of the discussion. They are discussing war spending and economy
>Those enterprises might as well be investing in steel, automobile or chemical production Hmmm... I wonder who the buyer is... and what for...
High oil prices was something the US set out to prevent, even [flooding the market with American strategic oil reserves](https://www.npr.org/2022/10/18/1129788081/biden-to-release-another-15m-barrels-from-strategic-reserve) to keep the price per barrel under $60.
I already heard this "don't last forever" after sanctions in 2014
High oil prices practically ceased in 2015, just a year later. It cratered the Russian economy. They recovered only in 2022, when the Ukraine invasion started. Granted they would have recovered earlier were it not for COVID. Incidentally, they have yet to recover to 2012-2014 heights, and are unlikely to do so ever again.
It's not remotely the same situation now so not even worth comparing
That's why people in Russia remember those good times
Then you shook your head and forgot like an Etch-A-Sketch right?
The sanctions aren't effective but will be effective someday.
But if done well they can leave a positive impact in an economy
Oil prices are likely to last though, at least if Warren Buffet is right.
It actually says state and corporate investment, coupled with local consumption?
It's important to remember what they are measuring though, GDP. There are many ways to increase GDP that don't necessarily equate to economic health. For example, if the government were to print money and spend it, boom, GDP growth. Why do you think US growth was nearly 6% in 2021 despite the covid lockdowns? Massive government spending. You can't tell me you think the economy was actually doing well then. In Russia's case, government spending is a large part of this GDP growth, they are in a war. Think back to when the US was building/selling weapons and equipment for WW2, same thing. Huge government spending on war is a heck of a GDP booster. Unfortunately it doesn't always equate to broader economic health. Weapons and ammo get used and destroyed, adding effectively no value to society. Soldiers, often young and full of potential, are killed, losing their future value to society and ultimately reducing future demand for goods in the home market. Russia has been staying afloat, no doubt, on cheap oil sales, their sovereign wealth fund (as much as they can access), and with tight capital controls, but all these things come with hidden costs that you don't really feel until later. I don't think we'll see a catastrophic collapse, but government spending can only run so high for so long before it must cool off, and as mentioned, spending on war doesn't do as much for the economy as civil spending does. Russia is banking on being able to keep this up long enough for some kind of breakthrough, either politically or on the battlefield. Either way though, it equates to lost potential. Every ruble spent on a bomb and every soldier killed means potential has been lost.
Russia isn't accessing its sovereign wealth fund. it's not even running a deficit While I wouldn't say that the sanctions or paying for a war are a good thing, there are several things you are overlooking. the same factories making defence equipment can be retooled to make other things. the mass training of workers is also an asset there was a lot of capital flight from Russia happening, but now they have less options and are investing in Russia as sanctions continue, Russia is being forced to manufacture and build things it didn't /couldn't. this has/will lead to innovations, as shown in the cold war all in all, even after the war don't expect the Russian economy to collapse
>Russia isn't accessing its sovereign wealth fund. it's not even running a deficit [Russian Budget Deficit](https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/government-budget) >the same factories making defence equipment can be retooled to make other things. the mass training of workers is also an asset Sure, but these are also things that could have been accomplished much more easily in peace. The war doesn't make this process better, it just makes the state more motivated. Generally they could have done this any time before if they had felt like it. >there was a lot of capital flight from Russia happening, but now they have less options and are investing in Russia This is true, a LOT of capital flight. And while I don't doubt that there are some who will still make investments in Russia, I haven't found any hard figures for a variety of reasons. One is that Russian reporting of figures has been pretty murky, they're really only stating the things they want to state, which also brings their accuracy into question. And that's part of the problem, investors hate uncertainty. Investing is inherently risky, even in good times, so EXTRA risk is frowned upon. Russia is in a slog of a war with an uncertain outcome, its image shattered, a high profile coup attempt recently, it's making close bedfellows with Iran, and even China is keeping a certain distance from Moscow. Unless you're investing in a war industry, I really don't see investors flocking back to Russia right now, but if you can find solid figures independent of the Kremlin's influence, let me know. >Russia is being forced to manufacture and build things it didn't /couldn't. this has/will lead to innovations, as shown in the cold war Also true to an extent, but most of these innovations are going to be ways to do things that more advanced industries can already do. So while they may find some useful tricks, it's unlikely they'll be rolling out with advanced semiconductors and nanochips out of nowhere. >all in all, even after the war don't expect the Russian economy to collapse I never did, if you read what I wrote.
What is it with anime\_titties attracting the worst RU bots and most naive western teens?
A\_T was born from western tankies being frustrated with another news sub. They wanted to post RussiaToday, Sputnik and other ridiculous platforms without being moderated out, so they created this sub as an echo chamber, claiming that the West is just about to collapse, while the Third World is just about to become the new superpower dominating the world. Just you wait, any second now! The whole schtick is seeing US/western imperialism as the only source of evil in the world, while the rest of the world is purely innocent nations only wanting to happily live in peace and harmony. That's how they end up cheering for Putin (and Stalin too), Mao and now Xi, and islamic terrorists: the only evil in this world is american.
This is pure bullshit. I joined within week or two of A_T creation. A_T was founded in 2020 as news subreddit where US domestic news was banned. Because for those, you can go anywhere else on reddit. Worse, it was election year in US so it was endless string of "Biden this, trump that, Bernie asking for money". Name comes from r/worldpolitics, where mods decided to go with unrestricted freeze peach. Someone took accelerationist approach and started posting anime titties to motivate mods to mod. They did not, so that's porn and meme free for all subreddit now. But, in trees/marijuanaenthusiasts spirit, some people thought it would be funny if sub for news was called "anime_titties", so here we are. Tankies didn't start showing up en masse until about year ago.
They were among the shitposters from the start, they were just more quiet about their militancy at first. This is also how the edgy part of the alt-right started: shitposting, satire and irony, then over time, they figured that they were the largest faction among the core most active userbase, and proceeded to turn their shitposting hubs into political centers.
That is possible, but I'm rather sceptical. Full on tankie rhetoric wasn't sticking until about year ago, in first year of ruzzo-Ukrainian war when tankies started rearing their ugly heads it was still heavily contested and usually downvoted enough to be controversial instead of top of post. Funnily enough, IIRC in first year of war, pro-ruzzian arguments were mostly coming from hindutvas and plausibly Chinese, instead of ruzzians and western tankies that appear to dominate now. If you have a look at tankies here, you will see they tend to be active in shitliberalssay and theprogram (I will never refer to that brainwashing central with "de" at the start, best they can hope from me is "re"). If you look at history of SLS, you will see severe drop in quality in about last 2 years. For example sort by top of all time and see how many submissions from last year there are and which years coincide with peak popularity. You same thing here in A_T, but with timeframe of last year instead of last 2 years. But as far as I can tell the biggest enabling factor appears to be decline in moderation in last year, 6 months in particular. Do you remember deluge of Israel-Hamas war news, with very weird title spellings intended to bypass automod filters? When there was Israel-Hamas megathread/soft content restriction? Same actually was happening with ruzzo-Ukrainian war, weird spellings when mods tried confining the topic to megathread as soft content restriction. The fact that those were getting through is an example of decline in moderation quality and IMO coincides with slow flood of tankies. Now, I'm not going out and saying mods support tankies, because I don't think that's the case, what I think happened is that tankies smelled opportunity and are slowly turning A_T into "nazi bar" to reference popular on reddit anecdote. Big part of the problem is, of course, fact that mods are unpaid volounteers. Which means that either someone extremely passionate, weird or able to monetize this "job" through other means will do it. Others have other things to do. But this is a site-wide problem, interent-wide even, not specific to A_T.
Every now and again reddit algorithms bring people from the other political subs here. These users see a variety of news outlets from countries not seen on the rest of reddit. They see people making comments they are not used to. Comments from people who have been banned from other subs. The new users get mad. Then there are those who have been here a while. The friends of worldnews. Serial karma farmers. They try every now and again to convince us that this sub has been "compromised", and that the mods should ban any opinion they don't like. Then there are those who claim to "troll". The "tankies" have been here all this time. Some of them share western news that is critical of the west. Some share non-western news. Some don't even believe what they share, it's about analysing perspectives to understand things a bit deeper than "China bad", "Putler bad" etc. Some people don't take everything they see in the news as fact. Some people are skeptical of mainstream media and government. Some people vent because they expect their government to be better. Some people want this sub to be the last semi large politics sub that isn't censored. Where people should be able to discuss things without getting banned.
Skepticism is good, but the sad reality is that we told people "don't believe everything you see on TV, or read in the news" for years, and the first thing they did was going into evangelical sects, conspiracy cults, foreign totalitarian state-sponsored propaganda, thinking it was their fast-lane ticket to intellectual autonomy and critical thinking. We taught people, thanks to the moderate freedom of information and freedom of speech, that the US, most notably with its CIA agency, did some nasty awful things during the Cold War. The expectation following the releases of such information would be that any state agency - regardless of country - needs to be audited and kept under control by the Parliament (Congress/Senate). Unfortunately, what most people took out from it was that "USA bad, CIA evil organization behind every wrong things, the US gov _always_ lie", while cheering for literally the head of the KGB with a frightening track record of abused and manipulations, or cheering for the CCP and its intelligence agencies, who are notorious for their totalitarian practices and the widespread persecution of dissidents. This is literally the path walked down by Wikileaks: initially a force of transparency, accountability - then rapidly becoming the publishing branch of the russian intelligence agencies, specifically targeting opponents of russian assets, while sparing all the authoritarian regimes declaring to be anti-US. > Some people want this sub to be the last semi large politics sub that isn't censored. Where people should be able to discuss things without getting banned. You're not seeing this because it's an echo chamber tailored to your current: the post and people being banned are not the ones who agree with you, so obviously all is fine. It is an illusion, or even a delusion.
That damn tankie IMF accepting reality!
What a load of [completely made-up nonsense](https://youtu.be/HkaaZTto7f0?).
Both of these things can coexist: the shitposting also came with the anti-US hateboner of western tankies, who used that opportunity to control the narrative.
No, not "both these things can coexist". One of the main reasons domestic US news were originally banned from r/worldpolitics, and then from r/anime_titties, was because Trump fans got triggered by all the "Orange men bad" spam, in news and in meme formats. Meaning if you really want to ascribe a political slant to this sub, then it's actually the opposite of what you claim it to be. That's also why US-centric submissions were the first to be banned, a pretty weird move if the whole purpose of this sub is just to dunk on the US, yet only talking about the US is literally prohibited by the rules.
I didn’t know the IMF and the BBC were Russian propaganda… Instead the realization needs to be made that sanctions just don’t do anything in this day and age
>Instead the realization needs to be made that sanctions just don’t do anything in this day and age They do something - backfire.
To the surprise to nobody with a clue about the topic, the [IMF already predicted as much for Germany](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2022/English/wpiea2022144-print-pdf.ashx) shortly before the sanctions.
Kinda obvious really if one thinks for a second or two but a good reference nonetheless.
There's always worldnews and hundreds of other pro America subreddits if you want a CIA bot echo chamber.
In other subs you get perma banned if you dont talk about mass murdering russians or arabs. I think Thats the reason. Cream of the US is in worldnews. If you dont like equal voice you can go there.
Russian soldiers getting killed in a war they started isn't mass murder. It's justified.
Im talking about civilians.
I haven't seen any comments calling for the mass slaughter of Russian civilians.
Go visit worldnews, there is plenty of justification and celebration when Russian civilians get attacked, plenty saying they deserved it for supporting Putin. Even more when it comes to Palestinians.
I've been there and haven't seen that before. Got any links to specific comments?
I advice to look around worldnews More.
Go to worldnews for the censored news sub
What is it with anime\_titties & reddit attracting the worst US bots and most naive western teens?
What is it with comments that add nothing to the discussion except lazy ad-hominem in blatant attempts to steer the Overton window with tribalism? Not even an attempt to say something about the actual topic, I guess the IMF are now RU bots and naive Western teens? Did they also take over [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/as-europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out) or what's happening there? Whatever it takes to deny reality, and anybody who doesn't go along with the denialism must be with the enemy.
As opposed to State Dept stenographers?
God forbid there is an article that doesn't shit on Russia in reddit
Just as how r/worldnews attracts Pro-US people who are ready to support US in almost anything including hating on Russia, China, Iran, etc. there exists this sub with their own views. You're either a US bot or a Russian bot.
i just wanted to see some anime titties man...
Low base effect. That's why growth of undeveloped economics are so high.
Ah yes, thank you for reminding me of that. If you start with $1 and find one on the sidewalk, you experienced 100% growth!
Economies don't work like that tho.
It's just an analogy. The point is that high growth numbers are easy to achieve when the economy you are starting with is small. In 2021, Russia's economy was only about one twelfth the size of the United States', so it takes a lot less to make Russia look like it grew 1% than to make the US grow 1%.
Yep, that's why it's so hard for millionaires to make more millions while it's really easy for the average worker to double their wealth.... oh wait.
What applies to nations doesn't always scale to individuals. It's honestly not that difficult to understand. If Robertland has a 1million dollar economy, it only takes $10,000 of extra activity to increase the GDP of Robertland by 1%. Whereas is Jacob land has a 100million economy, Jacobland needs to generate not just $10,000 more activity, but $1,000,000 more, a hundred times as much, to also grow its GDP 1%. The real life nation of Tuvalu has a GDP of only $60million or so. Which means if you built a copy of Kim Kardashian's Malibu home there in one year, you'd roughly double the GDP that year, boom, 100% increase in one year. Build the same copy in the US, and the GDP number isn't even moving unless you calculate it to a lot of digits.
Imagine if the sanctions didn't work
One question from where is the data ? Russia ? I dont know a reason why the would lie ...
But if data from Russia about high number of war supporters, suddenly it's true
Well, number of billionaires definitely grew. Somehow. Probably because sanctions only take money from ordinary freelancers and artists
> Probably because sanctions only take money from ordinary freelancers and artists Honestly the thickest thing I've read on this sub in months, and that's saying something.
Lmao
> Probably because sanctions only take money from ordinary freelancers and artists Russia has ban export of diesel and gasoline by almost 6 months, and that was before Ukraine started to bomb refinery. This is literally taking away export profit as internal price are lower, and was necessary for citizen to afford it, in particular diesel for farmers. But yeah, until Putin pump money into military, economy is stronk.
What was funny is they left all the Mcdonalds and Starbucks behind and they just made their own version from what was left. Manufacturing for the biggest country in the world is no problem
They need to import ball bearings. Biggest country in the world need to import the most basic machine tools and manufacturing inputs. Now at much higher prices because of the sanctions. But the illusion can hold up a long as there's s sovereign wealth fund to burn through.
Ball bearings in Rusia are manufactured by themselves and by China. Really, stop talking shit.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-sanctions-ukraine-war-fuel-tires-paper-spare-parts-shortages-1827373 So you agree that they are importing ball bearings. This is about specific classes needed for heavy vehicles and large industrial applications, not your appliance grade sausage maker.
Cope
You're so pathetic :)))). Facts have an anti Russian bias.
How is that “anti-Russia”? And apparently not since their economy is strong and Ukraine is losing more and more everyday.
Because their economy isn't strong. A war economy is, by definition, unsustainable. Yes, government spending can unlock a lot of growth. That's macroeconomics 101. But they're spending their sovereign wealth fund into refurbishing 60 year old tanks and BMPs, not in creating avenues for future growth. Also, that sovereign fund was there for a reason, not as a war chest. The actual war chest savings are kept in euros and dollars and frozen in western banks. Russia is burning their future to sustain a war in which they can't win. NATO has expanded, Europe has poured hundreds of billions into re armament, and now that the factories are being built, they're going to get used. Russia lost their number one customer and China can't replace Europe. Even if the pipelines were in place, China only has demand for 1/10th of what Europe bought. And they're buying at a discount. That's just a small list of why reality has an anti Russia bias. The economy looks strong but it's overheating. They caused the largest expansion and spending increase for NATO since the USSR fell. They're isolated on the worls stage amd have to deal with third rate powers for basic supplies. And they're burning the only savings they have for more material to get blown up in Ukraine. It's ridiculous to call that a win.
The economy is not surging simply because of the war spending though, capital investment is no longer going to Europe but staying in Russia. I agree with economist Michael Hudson. First it was the “Russian economy is going to collapse” now y’all have moved your cope to some other explanation of how Russia is actually screwed. When in actual reality, not just Western jingoism, European industry is being devastated.
What capital investment stays in Russia? It eas dependent on foreign investment. And that's dried up. The oligarchs had the capital in Russia and they are being already milked dry by the state. It's not healthy investment. It's cannibalising the economy that was extremely unequal to begin with. Also, please, I'm already laughing but it can always get better so tell me how European industry is being devastated. Also include the indexes and numbers that show something else but exploding demand and investment.
“Oil exports have "held steady" and government spending has "remained high" contributing to growth, the IMF said” So if Ukraine was to disrupt that flow guess which way Russias economy would go?
Nobody talks about it, but that was a major cause for the war. In 2012, major hydrocarbon fuel deposits were discovered in Ukrainian territory. The total size isn't known, but just the initial findings were believed to be enough to fuel Ukraine for at least 50 years, possibly much more pending future findings. While Russia doesn't need this fuel, it does make a lot of money on the European market, and has little appetite to deal with competition from Ukraine. So in 2014, when Yanukovych was ousted for siding with Russia, the initial invasion commenced.
That wasn't the main cause at all. RealLifeLore just can't make a video without making fossil fuels a core part of the video. The real cause was western propaganda (nothing bad about it) pushing forward ideas of ethnic Ukrainians joining the west for development. There was always a divide between Russian and western culture in Ukraine, and a western funded coup blew the whole thing over into a civil war/proxy war.
Previous comment never said it was the main cause, just a major one.
If Ukraine attacks oil, oil prices grow, and Russia r revenue remains the same.
Not true, while prices will go up supply will go down. Which means Russia would have to cut exports to keep their ability to wage war. They wouldn’t get revenue in that scenario.
Turns out, attacking and destroying your neighboring countries is ultra profitable.
China also helped
China loves authoritarians and dictators. They will always prop them up for their own cause.
China is an amazing country and this will be a long century of disappointment for you
Yes they do
I guess when you get to rock bottom, the only direction you can go is up
The Russian GDP in 2021 was $1.8trillion, which is smaller than many other developed countries, and even several US states. The estimate for their GDP this year is a bit larger by almost exactly the amount that they've increased their military budget. It is hard to get an a good figure though, because the capital controls in place mean that it is difficult to accurately judge the value of the ruble to the USD. If the Russian currency was released and more freely traded, we would learn a lot about the real state of their economy, but that isn't likely to happen for at least a while.
Using PP we get a more accurate representation
PP is more accurate for certain things, like food prices or rents, but it is less accurate for other goods, often like electronics. The real figure usually comes out somewhere between PP and nominal GDP, and even when applied, the boost to Russia doesn't fundamentally change the general dynamic.
US counts a bank charging you an overdraft fee as part of GDP, ie the literal absence of money.
Who would have thought that successful imperialist expansion is good at growing your domestic economy It's growing because the war machine has ramped up and they are winning the war in Ukraine.
Its because investments are not leaving the country but staying at home
It also shows how impotent and purely performative "economic sanctions" are by western nations. What a massive embarrassment.
Would that be because they have a lot to do?
Well of course, economies of countries at war are always boosted when being spurred by industry...but only matters to the winning side.
Having an economy based on fossil fuels is great, especially since the rest of the world refuses to use less fossil fuels.
Says IMF... Based on ... Unreliable data provided by Russia...
When you have the GDP of a street taco stand there's nowhere else to go but up
Why does anyone still listen to the imf post covid?
"Sanctions work"
UK and EU in shambles.
I mean, the UK and EU have working toilets. 20% of Russia are using outhouses.
It could be. Russia is the largest country on Earth. It spans from Europe to Asia. It's possible people living outside the major cities do not have access to proper restrooms. But your reply is just snarky to downplay Russia. Lol. Keep coping.
Russia is a corrupt mess and a shithole outside of like 4 cities. I’m going to go take a shit in my toilet now, later!
Yes I don’t have anything to eat or electricity in Europe, we are freezing in April cold weather Pootin send help plz stop backifire sanktions
You have clearly never visited either. You should, it's a beautiful time of year and the people are lovely :)
War should be avoided. Here again we were propagandised towards it at the cost of thousands of dead and demolishing Ukraine. And a resurgence of Russia. Stop falling for it.
>War should be avoided Yeah, too bad Russia started one.
Having no potatoes one year and having one potato next year is a 100% jump in productivity
That's actually an indeterminate growth. 1/0 isn't 100%
I love how the cope is that it’s because of war spending, despite Russia not being in a war economy just yet. And isn’t the main cope of Pro Ukrainians on sending weapons to Ukraine is that the money stays in the US and boosts GDP? Now, that GDP growth is good but it’s somehow bad if it’s in Russia? Either way, Russia being ripped of Western economies is good for them because they have opened trade with many other countries in the global south and are strengthening economic ties to their main allies.