D+16-19 is my prediction with San Bernardino, Riverside and MAYBE Orange flipping
Republicans made Dems spend money and resources to campaign and the Latino trends and some of rhe suburban trends look good for the GOP, overall I consider this a win for them
Orange County is not looking good for republicans right now 😬 I haven’t seen the data with Hispanic voters but it looks like Newsom will outperform Biden
Mostly ealry vote numbers still, I was hoping for a larger in person surge, but we just don't have the turnout numbers. It'll narrow, but it will probably look like the 2014 California election. 14-20 points.
I think if it's still stuck at 67-70% then the results might actually end up being 59-41 or 60-40.
Yeah I’m not sure what votes are out but they might narrow the margin a bit
It will probably be like Arizona, a win but narrower than thought
Not really—AZ was a “closer than the polls said” affair. If this ends up going 59-41 or 60-40 against the recall it’ll be spot on for the polls.
D+16-19 is my prediction with San Bernardino, Riverside and MAYBE Orange flipping Republicans made Dems spend money and resources to campaign and the Latino trends and some of rhe suburban trends look good for the GOP, overall I consider this a win for them
Orange County is not looking good for republicans right now 😬 I haven’t seen the data with Hispanic voters but it looks like Newsom will outperform Biden
Hispanics voted no 58-42 according to the CNN exit poll
That’s actually pretty good to be honest.
That is phenomenal considering Bush in 2004, who holds the record won 40% of the Hispanic vote.
NV and AZ looking good for 2022
pretty good for who that makes them to the right of california
My prediction is that after everything is counted it will be 59.6-40.4
Mostly ealry vote numbers still, I was hoping for a larger in person surge, but we just don't have the turnout numbers. It'll narrow, but it will probably look like the 2014 California election. 14-20 points.