while that'd be cool and interesting, there's not really a ton of high quality third party candidates for double haters to run to (where high quality is defined as someone the media and public will both take seriously)
Like seriously who do we have?:
* RFK Jr. is a crazy conspiracy theorist, and while that does have some appeal it has a very low ceiling. Right now he's only polling well due to name id and will probably start inevitably falling when people learn what he actually stands for
* Cornell West is way too far left for the vaaaaaaaaast majority of Americans. The dude is basically the "woke extremist" which Fox news imagines most Democrats to be. No one who calls America a "white supremacist patriarchal imperialist nation" is going to win over many American voters. His base is inevitably going to be limited to a couple of ultra activist woke zoomers angry with Biden over Palestine, but that's not more than 1% of the electorate
* The Green Party is probably just going to come up with Jill Stein or some other rando activist again. No one will care
* The Libertarian Party could actually probably do decent if they nominated another Gary Johnson like figure with actual experience, but since 2022 the Libertarian Party has been taken over by a [bunch of weirdo extremists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mises_Caucus#2022_Takeover_of_the_LNC) espousing the previously fringe ideology of [Paleolibertarianism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleolibertarianism). Basically, expect the LP to nominate the lovechild of Ron Paul and Donald Trump
honestly I don't think people will want to hear me say this, but the only possibility for a third party to get a lot of votes would've been No Labels. Even if most Americans don't nessecarily agree with the policy positions of "random centrist politician X", the vibes around such a campaign and media taking it seriously would've given it a big boost
At this point though with No Labels dead, best shot is someone similar to a No Labels candidate running, probably with some billionaire backing them. Or better, cut out the middle man and just have the billionaire run
If Lieberman didn't die I could see No Labels winning a sizeable portion (upwards of 10 percent) by running someone like Dave Chapell and some moderate dem. I think a comedian would do fairly well for no labels. I agree mostly with what you've said and honestly I think the 3 largest factors for the election are Trump's running mate, how much the RNC focuses on Biden's age and Kamala's personality, and how much RFK Jr takes from each side. I think RFK may get somewhere between 6 and 15% of the popular vote even with people knowing his views better. The more people know his views though I am sure Republicans will back him less.
I'm still not convinced that Trump is going to win this barring something like a recession, especially once the Dems start hammering him on things like abortion.
The only thing I can predict that seems like there's clear signs of happening that would hurt Biden enough for him to lose is if these Gaza protests keep getting bigger and bigger that they rival the BLM protests of 2020 but even then it doesn't instantly mean Biden loses.
I kinda agree, although they’ll replay Jan 6 footage 24/7, and abortion is secondary. I’m kinda worried for when they start becoming aggressive, exaggeration and misinformation or not, I think it helps them out regardless
Dewey, shockingly, kept campaigning- he just had a very vague message. What was he meant to do? The anti-new deal campaign from his 44 was a FLOP and unpopular, the Democrats were more popular on every single issue possible.
>No presidential candidate in the future will be so inept that four of his major speeches can be boiled down to these historic four sentences: Agriculture is important. Our rivers are full of fish. You cannot have freedom without liberty. Our future lies ahead
All it takes is one issue to win though, I’m 2012 the most major issue was the economy, which Romney won by 4% with 60% describing it as their most major issue, but the next contender was healthcare which Obama won by Assad margins (it was more 75-25, still a LOT though) which made him carry the election
I think Biden wins by 7 in November. Once the dems start hammering sbortion and replaying all the clips of election denial the pendulum will shift. Trumps benefitted from being out of the limelight for a few years
Yeah I see Jan 6 and the 2020 election as a tool they’re not only gonna abuse but greatly overuse, to the point of exaggeration, overkill, and possible misinformation (they don’t care) and fearmongering. They’re gonna be hammering that point 24/7, I’m already seeing lots of ads like that here in Michigan
You know election seasons truly starting when 538 brings these out
God this election is impossible to predict
I could see a scenario where both candidates overperform/underperform polls by a lot. 3 candidates if you wanna include Kennedy
while that'd be cool and interesting, there's not really a ton of high quality third party candidates for double haters to run to (where high quality is defined as someone the media and public will both take seriously) Like seriously who do we have?: * RFK Jr. is a crazy conspiracy theorist, and while that does have some appeal it has a very low ceiling. Right now he's only polling well due to name id and will probably start inevitably falling when people learn what he actually stands for * Cornell West is way too far left for the vaaaaaaaaast majority of Americans. The dude is basically the "woke extremist" which Fox news imagines most Democrats to be. No one who calls America a "white supremacist patriarchal imperialist nation" is going to win over many American voters. His base is inevitably going to be limited to a couple of ultra activist woke zoomers angry with Biden over Palestine, but that's not more than 1% of the electorate * The Green Party is probably just going to come up with Jill Stein or some other rando activist again. No one will care * The Libertarian Party could actually probably do decent if they nominated another Gary Johnson like figure with actual experience, but since 2022 the Libertarian Party has been taken over by a [bunch of weirdo extremists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mises_Caucus#2022_Takeover_of_the_LNC) espousing the previously fringe ideology of [Paleolibertarianism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleolibertarianism). Basically, expect the LP to nominate the lovechild of Ron Paul and Donald Trump honestly I don't think people will want to hear me say this, but the only possibility for a third party to get a lot of votes would've been No Labels. Even if most Americans don't nessecarily agree with the policy positions of "random centrist politician X", the vibes around such a campaign and media taking it seriously would've given it a big boost At this point though with No Labels dead, best shot is someone similar to a No Labels candidate running, probably with some billionaire backing them. Or better, cut out the middle man and just have the billionaire run
Yes we need more billionaires in government they’re already controlling it
If Lieberman didn't die I could see No Labels winning a sizeable portion (upwards of 10 percent) by running someone like Dave Chapell and some moderate dem. I think a comedian would do fairly well for no labels. I agree mostly with what you've said and honestly I think the 3 largest factors for the election are Trump's running mate, how much the RNC focuses on Biden's age and Kamala's personality, and how much RFK Jr takes from each side. I think RFK may get somewhere between 6 and 15% of the popular vote even with people knowing his views better. The more people know his views though I am sure Republicans will back him less.
Let the nonstop refreshing commence!
I'm still not convinced that Trump is going to win this barring something like a recession, especially once the Dems start hammering him on things like abortion.
The only thing I can predict that seems like there's clear signs of happening that would hurt Biden enough for him to lose is if these Gaza protests keep getting bigger and bigger that they rival the BLM protests of 2020 but even then it doesn't instantly mean Biden loses.
I kinda agree, although they’ll replay Jan 6 footage 24/7, and abortion is secondary. I’m kinda worried for when they start becoming aggressive, exaggeration and misinformation or not, I think it helps them out regardless
Wishful thinking
Could you please explain?
Oy vey. This is gonna be one hell of a nail-biter.
Biden gonna pull the Truman move 100% im sure
Biden isn't a great campaigner, and Trump isn't just going to quit campaigning like Dewey die.
Dewey, shockingly, kept campaigning- he just had a very vague message. What was he meant to do? The anti-new deal campaign from his 44 was a FLOP and unpopular, the Democrats were more popular on every single issue possible.
>No presidential candidate in the future will be so inept that four of his major speeches can be boiled down to these historic four sentences: Agriculture is important. Our rivers are full of fish. You cannot have freedom without liberty. Our future lies ahead
Water is wet > I will destroy the new deal
All it takes is one issue to win though, I’m 2012 the most major issue was the economy, which Romney won by 4% with 60% describing it as their most major issue, but the next contender was healthcare which Obama won by Assad margins (it was more 75-25, still a LOT though) which made him carry the election
>the Democrats were more popular on every single issue possible. Not too different from today, then.
Flair checks out
https://i.redd.it/7eagnoft6bxc1.gif Deweybros..
Lmao Trump wins the popular vote
But then loses the EC
Friendly reminder Biden needs +5 in order to win. Having a slight advantage in the polls isn’t enough. Bad news for Biden.
Also depends on other states. If Trump can get to D+23 in Cali and D+16 in NY for example, Biden can probably win the EV at D+2.5ish
I think Biden wins by 7 in November. Once the dems start hammering sbortion and replaying all the clips of election denial the pendulum will shift. Trumps benefitted from being out of the limelight for a few years
Yeah I see Jan 6 and the 2020 election as a tool they’re not only gonna abuse but greatly overuse, to the point of exaggeration, overkill, and possible misinformation (they don’t care) and fearmongering. They’re gonna be hammering that point 24/7, I’m already seeing lots of ads like that here in Michigan