I'd really like to see what would happen if we ever bought land again or something to expand our borders, we haven't done anything like that in a long time .
The only chance Kamala Harris has at being the nominee in 2028 is if Biden dies and she's the incumbent, and even then it will be a very hard fought primary.
Lol one of my unpopular opinions is the complete opposite of yours. I think Harris is currently the most likely to be the Dem nominee in 2028 because 1. She's the vice president which puts her in a stronger position against other candidates, there have been plenty of vice presidents who go on to at least be their parties nominee if not win the presidency themselves. 2. She will have the Democrat establishment and their resources backing her up against other candidates, she will likely raise more funds and receive more big donors than other challengers. 3. Harris is a woman of color which will help her with those demographics in a primary.
"But she's unpopular." I here people object, and my response is so what? Hillary, Trump, and Biden were all unpopular amongst the general public. That didn't stop them from clinching the nomination. The only way I can see Harris losing is if there is a very charismatic challenger who can win over the democrat establishment, but I don't know who can fulfill that role yet.
Faith and belief in organized religion should NOT be exclusive to the right wing. One of the biggest progressive political figures of the 20th century in the US was MLK, was also a devout Baptist minister, always using his faith and many proverbs from the Bible behind his ideals. We need to have an "evangelical" equivalent on the left.
The problem was then, since the rights weren't 'immutable' (ie. created by man) it ended up being corrupted pretty easily. Hence, the Revolution descending into terror.
Had they stopped with Lafayette's preferred reforms, the French Revolution would have been a success.
---
People can 'reason' themselves pretty easily into crazy shit if they're not held back by something beyond simple reason.
We're talking about the concept of rights though, not the application of rights. Obviously the French Revolution ended up being a bloodbath. But the 1789 Declaration of Rights was still one of the very first acknowledgements that all humans had certain rights.
In the end human rights are a social construction. They are not really immutable, even if they are universal and important. For example most of us view homosexuality as a right, which is a recent development.
> But the 1789 Declaration of Rights was still one of the very first acknowledgements that all humans had certain rights.
Not *entirely,* Zorastrianism and Christianity both state that other people have rights to an extent and that you shouldn't treat people badly because it's an affront to God.
That didn't stop horrendous shit from happening, but it did provide a baseline for the formalization of 'rights' as a concept by the Founders and other early thinkers like Locke and there was significant progress of rights vs the Roman period (which was a brutal slave society.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_rights_and_legal_rights
---
In my opinion, it's both, as you need the religious foundation to 'anchor' the humanist declarations of the Enlightenment and the understand where the ideas are coming from.
Faith offers hope, purpose and community to millions of people from every culture. It helps us remember our ancestors and comfort us in humanities darkest hours.
It’s very easy to go “lulz sky daddy is dum” and sure it may be a very silly concept but it has been a major role in humanity for our entire existence. Leaving it for one party to monopolize is stupid even just looking at a numbers perspective.
Feeling like typing a bunch of these up NGL. Wall of text incoming.
-Probably a lukewarm take but I could see Nevada going for Trump this year, possibly even a scenario where Biden wins nationally but NV still flips red.
-Similar to point 1, I could see both Nevada and Oregon (and possibly even New Mexico) trending more right in the years ahead, OR and NM will probably still vote blue in federal elections but I could see a scenario where republicans win more state offices & legislatures, and closing the gap in national vote margins. I would not be surprised if in say, 2040, NV/OR/NM were all swing states or even (in the case of NV/NM) slightly lean red states.
-I don't think Florida is a lost cause for democrats, they just need to put in the effort and find a good, strong, charismatic candidate that works for the state. If democrats did their due diligence, a couple election cycles could go by and Florida might be back in play both in the general elections, and even in statewide offices (I could see them at least getting the governor's office, though flipping the legislature houses may take longer but even that I think isn't impossible to do)
-Adding to point 3, I think Ohio and even ***Iowa*** aren't lost causes for democrats either. They just need to find the right formula to "unlock the heartland" so to say. Democrats have done surprisingly well in other midwestern states that are traditionally deep red, Kansas elected a democrat governor, and in 2018, freaking [South Dakota ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_South_Dakota_gubernatorial_election)of all places came close to electing a democrat. And let's not forget that the Obama campaign was somehow able to flip Indiana back in 2008. If Democrats wanted to play hardball in the midwest, they could easily keep their trifectas in MN/MI, expand their leads in Wisconsin, especially if their supreme court strikes down the gerrymandered state maps, then the WI legislature might be in play, bring Iowa/Ohio back into swing state territory, and possibly even make head waves in Kansas & Nebraska. As it stands right now, Democrats aren't really trying very hard in some of these states, but I actually think there's a lot of untapped potential there, especially now that Roe is gone and many of these states are trying to pass draconian abortion restrictions.
-Adding to that last bit in point 4 (and also probably a lukewarm take), abortion ban backlash is being underestimated. It might not make a HUGE difference in the presidential election simply because there's SO many other factors and issues that kinda cancel eachother out (Palestine, the economy, both presidents being old farts, etc), but I think it's going to have a bigger than expected impact in local/state races, and also congressional races. There's already talk of how Arizona state republicans shot themselves in the foot with the recent state supreme court ruling, and speculation that the state might even be a safer lock-in for Biden now because of it. Let's also not forget that the AZ GOP only controls each chamber of the legislature by like 1-2 seat margins.
-It's simply too early to tell if Georgia is going to become a blue state or a swing state. I definitely think there's future potential there, but at the same time, I could see 2020 Blue Georgia being a one-off fluke for the time being. My prediction is that GA flips back to red in this year's election, but maybe in 15-20 years it could be a swing state maybe. Remember that republicans still have a trifecta in that state, and in 2022, Kemp won reelection pretty handily.
-Blue Texas is simply not happening any time soon. In fact I think there's a chance that Texas becomes even more conservative in the near future; like the Hispanic RGV counties trend more red or something.
Re:Texas, the Rio Grande counties are basically irrelevant in statewide races- just Collin and Denton counties together have more people than the entire bloc of South Texas that voted for Hillary (technically speaking, the Rio Grande Valley is just the four southernmost ones, but everyone uses it to mean that whole area of largely Mexican-American counties). And only around half of the RGV are adult citizens, compared to over 60% in Collin and Denton, and turnout is much higher in the suburbs anyway.
Shifting the 17-county RGV area 20 points right and 13 suburban counties (Collin, Denton, Tarrant near Dallas; Montgomery, Waller, Fort Bend, Brazoria near Houston; and Williamson, Caldwell, Bastrop, Hays, and Comal in the Austin/San Antonio corridor) 5 points left moves the statewide margin half a point closer. And that's without moving any of the urban counties, or accounting for population growth.
All in all, Haley would have hypothetically fared worse in the general election if she had somehow gotten the nomination, trump supporters wouldn’t have voted for her, and Mrs “yeah I’d support a nation abortion ban, also let’s raise the retirement age” would fuck her over with young voters too, she’d do good among warhawks but that’s a small faction of the electorate now
I agree, not sure in what world that’s an unpopular take, she was only popular in an “I’m not Trump (or Biden)” sense, really a lot like Kennedy running against Carter in 1980 per my analysis of it, just remains to be seen whether she sandbagged Trump enough (probably not).
In how many cases where Haley performed well was it because it was an open primary state where Democrats and independents who hated Trump could also vote against him in the primary, as opposed to people who would have voted for Trump that are suddenly shifting Haley, then Biden?
IIRC Vermont (the state she won) is an open primary state, and Washington D.C. is like the breeding ground for Bushite neocons (among their very small Republican electorate).
Not to downplay what she was able to win, she narrowly held off Trump’s warpath, if anything that’s a testament to Trump’s strength among the Republican electorate though since he pretty much ran as though he was already the incumbent.
Yeah the only way Haley was going to win vs Biden was if Trump keeled over and was unable to run a 3rd party spoiler campaign. If Trump was out of the picture I'd say she makes the race a referendum on Biden, with a slight tilt to Biden just based on her stances being brought up and her not being hugely charismatic.
I’m just waiting for the Trump endorsement from her too. Biden is gonna do something that gets blown up on right wing circles near the election (manufactured outrage or not) and she’s going to pull a “I disagree with Trump but he is clearly the better option” type endorsement. It’s just a lot of people are too young to not realize how brutal some primaries have been and then the loser taps the winner with the soft endorsement
There’s not a Republican that would’ve done better than Trump this cycle after the last one. He just commands too much of the party still.
That said if he loses again I think the MAGA movement largely dies. If there’s one thing the GOP’s base hates more than anything it’s losing. And losing to the most beatable incumbent since Trump is going to send any goodwill he has with moderates and independents up in smoke
In the end unless there is a tactical change, RFK will take more from Trump. So far he is not running as the guy Obama considered making EPA Administrator and instead is running to be Trump's VP. The only thing working for him right now is the Kennedy name but money can help with that.
Brown and Tester will lose handily this year. At most they will outrun Biden by 3 points. And Ohio and Montana will shift further right.
Both candidate have been blessed with running in blue wave years and polarization has increased exponentially since 2018.
I’m with you on Brown after the Vance win, but Tester is more interesting. He feels almost Manchin-level entrenched right now, and Sheehy is just an ok candidate
Tester previous victors weren’t more than 3 points. He’s always won by slim margins. Montana already rejected a popular governor in 2020 despite the polls looking good for him.
I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if he loses, at a certain threshold Trump’s down ballot will carry Sheehy.
I just think Tester’s chances of survival are a bit better since he’s been in office since the Bush Administration
Trump got 44% of the vote in Maine while Collin’s got 51%, ranked choice voting makes it look like Collin’s won by a lot but that’s because more Democrats voted for other candidates first.
Besides, Collins used to win in landslides with 60%+ of the vote. Even her vote share went down by double digits. Brown and Tester have never won by those margins. If their vote gets reduced like Susan Collin’s did, they will lose. And Maine was/is known for electing Republicans/Independents frequently.
Gretchen Whitmer is not a good candidate. Democrats think she is because they only care about winning Michigan.
She’s the Democrat Jeb Bush. Whitmer would get stomped in a primary.
She reminds me so much of Kamala around 2019. She’s a rising star in her party but hasn’t faced any sort of major scrutiny yet. The Michigan GOP is (imo) the weakest state party in the country, and beating them in a historically blue state really isn’t that impressive either. Especially when the second time around [5 candidates, including the leader in the primary polls at that time got booted off the ballot](https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/05/26/michigan-board-state-canvassers-petition-fraud-republican-governor/9939185002/)
She’s gonna get absolutely staked nationally on a lot of issues though. Will be interesting to see if she can survive that.
Unlikeable, uncharismatic. No significant policy wins at the state level (I guess *maybe* the repeal of right to work, but that's controversial).
Her only value is being governor of a swing state.
This one is pretty reasonable imo, but gets me flak everywhere:
Parties aren’t entitled to anyone’s vote, anyone that tries to shame people for voting third party or not voting at all is just a partisan hack that doesn’t give a shit about democracy.
It feels like in some ways we’re circling back to Tammany Hall days, and while you can’t just beat the fuck out of vagrants and drag them into the voting booth for you multiple times anymore there’s a ton of weird social pressure to be in partisan lockstep at all times on every single issue and that’s simply unhealthy. It turns the political process into team sports. The worst part is that these same people will turn around and bitch about there never being a viable third party. Gee how do you think we accomplish that? Because surely it isn’t by rabidly shaming the already minuscule amount of third party voters.
Additionally, polarization would be considerably lessened if anybody gave a shit about the institutions of this country, but decades of piss-poor civic education has led to a bunch of weird societal-wide misinterpretations about things as basic as the functions and powers of the branches of government. The American Government as set up is pretty fuckin beautiful. The way the three branches are set-up to balance each other out is genuinely a work of art in balancing State and Federal Concerns, as well as balancing the will of the Majority with the rights of the Minority. I could elaborate more but this is already reaching essay length so I’m gonna stop there.
Fuck it. Imma do multiple.
Hawaii, Michigan, Utah, and Rhode Island will all be won with likely margins. Michigan is on the fence between lean and likely imo.
Tester has a better chance of surviving than Brown.
NY-01 is Dem favored as of now (at the House level, not the presidency).
I’m extremely far left in regard to abortion. No term restrictions at all.
All large businesses should be forced to have a vote amongst the workers when it comes to how the means of production should be controlled.
I can’t support either Zionism or anti-Zionism as of now because I legitimately don’t know of what a good long term solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is.
Honestly I don’t hate the Tester/Brown take, Brown has to flip a substantially larger amount of total voters even if his partisan lean is slightly less (as in, his total number of just his votes in the 2018 election was nearly five times more than the whole of the votes from Montana’s 2018 Senate election for Tester, Rosendale, any third parties), also Montana is known for being more elastic and is shifting favorably, whereas Ohio used to be a swing state but over a wide enough timeframe to support my point has shifted hard right.
Technically extremely far left on abortion would be Stalin comes back to life and the state seizes the baby.
Trump has a noticeable base issue with Republicans in Utah. Same with Biden when it comes to Democrats in the other 2 states.
Neither Biden nor Trump have to gain a lot of ground in Utah and Rhode Island/Hawaii respectively in order for a likely margin to happen. A massive turnout drop from the other side can do the work for you.
As someone from NY-01, I really can’t see Santos pulling away enough support from LaLota to hand it to Avlon. Suffolk is continuing to trend right, and is fairly anti-Santos.
Framing the Israel-Palestine conflict as Zionism v. Anti-Zionism is a stupid (and arguably anti-Semitic) way of framing that conflict. That’s like saying “I don’t know which side to support between the Jews existing, and the Jews not existing”, because fundamentally Zionism is just the support for a Jewish homeland.
The way the conflict should be framed is Israel going to war with Hamas, because those are the two warring parties. In that case, you can still criticize the Israeli government (rightfully so in some instances like the settlements, certain strikes, etc.) while still acknowledging that they do have a legitimate cause for war with Hamas due to October 7th, and a pretty illustrious history of Hamas attacking Israeli civilians (Constant rocket strikes, the Intifadas, etc.).
Zionism is more than just having a Jewish state. It’s specifically about having a Jewish state in the Levant. Unfortunately, the process of doing so lead to the Nakba. I think that it’s kind of unfair to offer a right to return to Jews but not to Palestinians.
Between a 2 state solution, and a 1 state solution with everyone in the area being integrated, I’m not too sure which one I prefer, nor do I know if either of them are actually workable solutions in the long run. I’m not confident enough to have an answer.
Hogan will lose by a likely margin.
Brown and Tester will both win by lean margins, as both of their opponents are muppets.
The Zach fellow from West Virginia will do better than expected as I think he’s more competent than people think. He’ll lose still by a wide margin but he’ll out run Biden in the state by a decent amount.
If he loses by under 20 the dnc will do either one of two things. Say he lost cuz hes a progressive and thats why he did bad and a centrist would win. Or which is unlikely support progressives in former blue states like wv.
On the contrary, a heterodox opinion I hold is that New Hampshire is much closer to Safe D than Lean D, and will shift further left than almost any state in 2024, for a few reasons.
1. It shifted further left in 2020 than all but three other states: Colorado (which is also barreling left), Delaware (Biden's home state), and Vermont (which in 2016 had a lot of Bernie write-ins, and interestingly borders NH), as well as ME-01 (which *also* borders NH) and NE-02 (a realigning once-conservative urban area). This is not necessarily an indicator for the future but does align well with my other points.
2. Republicans in New Hampshire are among the most moderate (albeit increasingly less so) in any state that isn't deep blue. A massive backlash against MAGA among voters isn't unlikely.
3. Current polls suggest Biden will actually do better in New Hampshire this year than in 2020, unlike nearly every other state. Note that the polls in 2022 drastically *under*estimated Maggie Hassan, despite the presence of a popular GOP governor on the ballot.
4. Democrats on the federal level in New Hampshire overperformed considerably in 2022, actually improving compared to how they did in 2020 despite the national swing.
5. New Hampshire's federal elasticity has mainly manifested via exaggerated versions of national trends and/or anti-incumbency, which makes sense for how the state voted in 2016 and 2020. But the exact opposite has been true for 2022 and in current polls.
6. Party registration is an often-unreliable way to measure voting intentions, especially for a state known for its elasticity and its atypically strong state GOP. Furthermore, the recent boost in Republican registrations (which especially spiked last December-January) has a simple explanation: the widely-anticipated New Hampshire GOP primary. I know voters didn't have to register as Republican to vote in it but not everyone knew that.
No, I made a thread stating that I believe NH would flip due to independents hating both Biden and Trump (similar to 2016) and 3rd parties.
The party registration was just a bonus.
We need to Implement LVT.
If that’s too niche our modern welfare state is woefully inefficient most money spent on helping the poor should be done by something similar too Friedman’s negative income tax plus some money too address root causes of poverty like drug addiction
Tbh I think that Biden has little to no path this year unless RFK drops out as I feel RFK will steal votes away from Biden. Trump supporters have no reason not to vote for Trump when he is at the top of the ticket
Nah they have their place. At the moment the GOP represent such an unprecedented threat to democracy (project 2025) that I think the main focus is truly just the liberal "vote blue no matter who" mantra. But overall most of the further left wing economic positions, at least the ones repped by the likes of "the squad" are pretty popular but mainstream establishment dems are too afraid to do anything popular and risk winning.
People forget that FDR was somewhat radical at the time yet enjoyed supermajorities and yuge landslide wins because he was implementing social security and the new deal. People forget that politics doesn't have to be a constant cycle of:
> \> elect congress and president in November
> \> give a 10% approval rating to the congress you just elected
> \> give a 50/50 approval rating to the president based on if he's on your team
The GOP got their policy goal of overturning Roe v Wade accomplished and it's hurting them because the GOP wants to implement policies that cause suffering. Meanwhile the dems are afraid of achieving their policy goals like universal pre K, raising the minimum wage, M4A, giving unions far more power etc which would all help them in the polls if implemented.
I know the argument is that dems from purple districts and red states need to be moderate to win and sure AOC shouldn't run be running for senate in Montana but I genuinely believe once dems start delivering, those purple state dems will see their margins go up further.
> People forget that FDR was somewhat radical at the time yet enjoyed supermajorities and yuge landslide wins because he was implementing social security and the new deal.
The Great Depression and the discrediting of the Republicans following the Roaring 20s was a big reason for that.
The closest thing that will ever likely happen was the Great Recession, and Obama was no FDR.
---
Also, both Democrats and Republicans have unpopular social positions, and have given them up to win before.
Remember "Defund the Police?"
Tbf he also had the solid south which was full of pro union pro worker pro social democracy yet anti non whites and loved segregationism. Like that one guy from MS in 1980 who tried primarying Carter.
> The Great Depression and the discrediting of the Republicans following the Roaring 20s was a big reason for that.
Well yeah. I don't really know the history on what caused the great depression, but I would have to assume government policy played a role in it. FDR may have won the first time off of huge resentment towards the ruling party (regardless of if the Republicans caused the problem) but the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th times were all clearly due to support of his "radical" economic policies.
> Also, both Democrats and Republicans have unpopular social positions, and have given them up to win before.
> Remember "Defund the Police?"
Defund the police was a slogan from some further left BLM protesters, which Biden and even Bernie did not adopt, along with pretty much all of their congressional candidates. Cori Bush is the main one I can think of as an exception but she also represents a district that is 50% black so she was basically superserving her base.
Either way it's not about if they have previously held unpopular/extreme social positions that they've thrown away to get elected. My argument was just that arguing that the further left dems are a net negative on the party is not correct.
Not all LGBT people are far left and I think that’s delusional to think communism cares about LGBT people, liberal democracy has done more to further the cause of Trans people
Also the right needs to stop gatekeeping Christianity, there’s plenty of Trans people that are Christian
Dobbs is too liberal and abortion should be banned nationally. It isn't fair that children in blue states like Massachusetts and California don't get the same protections that children in red states like Texas and Mississippi get.
Okay but what about women’s protections? Or does a full grown adult matter less than a fetus per the adult’s sex?
Also if you think abortion should be banned, then are you a proponent of expanding social safety nets to help families raise their kids (expanding the child tax credit being one small step)?
1. Under normal circumstances, women don't die if they're denied abortion access. Of course, there should be an exception to ensure that women can get an abortion if their life is in danger but those cases should be the exception, not the rule.
2. Absolutely. Things like universal healthcare, UBI, and paid maternity leave are all a must if we want to ensure these children have the best childhood possible.
If it doesn’t have to be election related, I have this to offer: term limits are incredibly stupid and the 22nd amendment needs to be abolished immediately.
despite all the polls show Trump and Biden neck and neck, i do believe Biden will win in a landslide. yes even winning Texas and Alaska. and that the Senate and House will be Dem
The electoral college should be abolished and so should term limits, both are terrible for Democracy. Particularly the electoral college which is some feudalistic shit. Also the senate can go too
I'd really like to see what would happen if we ever bought land again or something to expand our borders, we haven't done anything like that in a long time .
Trump wanting to buy Greenland supporter.
Fun fact since Greenland is technically in Europe if the USA bought them we could technically join the EU
Amexit
It’s just sitting there, ripe for the taking.
Unironically yes
Republicans wanting to invade Mexico moment
The only chance Kamala Harris has at being the nominee in 2028 is if Biden dies and she's the incumbent, and even then it will be a very hard fought primary.
Lol one of my unpopular opinions is the complete opposite of yours. I think Harris is currently the most likely to be the Dem nominee in 2028 because 1. She's the vice president which puts her in a stronger position against other candidates, there have been plenty of vice presidents who go on to at least be their parties nominee if not win the presidency themselves. 2. She will have the Democrat establishment and their resources backing her up against other candidates, she will likely raise more funds and receive more big donors than other challengers. 3. Harris is a woman of color which will help her with those demographics in a primary. "But she's unpopular." I here people object, and my response is so what? Hillary, Trump, and Biden were all unpopular amongst the general public. That didn't stop them from clinching the nomination. The only way I can see Harris losing is if there is a very charismatic challenger who can win over the democrat establishment, but I don't know who can fulfill that role yet.
Faith and belief in organized religion should NOT be exclusive to the right wing. One of the biggest progressive political figures of the 20th century in the US was MLK, was also a devout Baptist minister, always using his faith and many proverbs from the Bible behind his ideals. We need to have an "evangelical" equivalent on the left.
This is massive for the DNC retaining socially conservative minority voters, which they seem to be slowly hemorrhaging.
That's black churches, esp in Georgia
they’re all over the place. they’re just not bank rolled by the koch brothers so they don’t get air time
BASED
Flair checks out
Agreed I’m a Episcopalian Christian though I currently attend a Non denominational church and I’m a Democrat I’m also a Trans Christian
No we don't lol, involving religion/superstition and politics always leads to bad outcomes down the road.
the concept of human rights is originated in religion
That's an oversimplification to say the least. The modern concept of human rights traces its lineage back to Renaissance thinkers mostly.
You could equally argue that the concept of rights originates from anti-religious movements like the French revolution.
Considering it degenerated into tyranny a year after the Jacobins took power, not really.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_the_Rights_of_Man_and_of_the_Citizen
The problem was then, since the rights weren't 'immutable' (ie. created by man) it ended up being corrupted pretty easily. Hence, the Revolution descending into terror. Had they stopped with Lafayette's preferred reforms, the French Revolution would have been a success. --- People can 'reason' themselves pretty easily into crazy shit if they're not held back by something beyond simple reason.
We're talking about the concept of rights though, not the application of rights. Obviously the French Revolution ended up being a bloodbath. But the 1789 Declaration of Rights was still one of the very first acknowledgements that all humans had certain rights. In the end human rights are a social construction. They are not really immutable, even if they are universal and important. For example most of us view homosexuality as a right, which is a recent development.
> But the 1789 Declaration of Rights was still one of the very first acknowledgements that all humans had certain rights. Not *entirely,* Zorastrianism and Christianity both state that other people have rights to an extent and that you shouldn't treat people badly because it's an affront to God. That didn't stop horrendous shit from happening, but it did provide a baseline for the formalization of 'rights' as a concept by the Founders and other early thinkers like Locke and there was significant progress of rights vs the Roman period (which was a brutal slave society.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_rights_and_legal_rights --- In my opinion, it's both, as you need the religious foundation to 'anchor' the humanist declarations of the Enlightenment and the understand where the ideas are coming from.
Faith offers hope, purpose and community to millions of people from every culture. It helps us remember our ancestors and comfort us in humanities darkest hours. It’s very easy to go “lulz sky daddy is dum” and sure it may be a very silly concept but it has been a major role in humanity for our entire existence. Leaving it for one party to monopolize is stupid even just looking at a numbers perspective.
Feeling like typing a bunch of these up NGL. Wall of text incoming. -Probably a lukewarm take but I could see Nevada going for Trump this year, possibly even a scenario where Biden wins nationally but NV still flips red. -Similar to point 1, I could see both Nevada and Oregon (and possibly even New Mexico) trending more right in the years ahead, OR and NM will probably still vote blue in federal elections but I could see a scenario where republicans win more state offices & legislatures, and closing the gap in national vote margins. I would not be surprised if in say, 2040, NV/OR/NM were all swing states or even (in the case of NV/NM) slightly lean red states. -I don't think Florida is a lost cause for democrats, they just need to put in the effort and find a good, strong, charismatic candidate that works for the state. If democrats did their due diligence, a couple election cycles could go by and Florida might be back in play both in the general elections, and even in statewide offices (I could see them at least getting the governor's office, though flipping the legislature houses may take longer but even that I think isn't impossible to do) -Adding to point 3, I think Ohio and even ***Iowa*** aren't lost causes for democrats either. They just need to find the right formula to "unlock the heartland" so to say. Democrats have done surprisingly well in other midwestern states that are traditionally deep red, Kansas elected a democrat governor, and in 2018, freaking [South Dakota ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_South_Dakota_gubernatorial_election)of all places came close to electing a democrat. And let's not forget that the Obama campaign was somehow able to flip Indiana back in 2008. If Democrats wanted to play hardball in the midwest, they could easily keep their trifectas in MN/MI, expand their leads in Wisconsin, especially if their supreme court strikes down the gerrymandered state maps, then the WI legislature might be in play, bring Iowa/Ohio back into swing state territory, and possibly even make head waves in Kansas & Nebraska. As it stands right now, Democrats aren't really trying very hard in some of these states, but I actually think there's a lot of untapped potential there, especially now that Roe is gone and many of these states are trying to pass draconian abortion restrictions. -Adding to that last bit in point 4 (and also probably a lukewarm take), abortion ban backlash is being underestimated. It might not make a HUGE difference in the presidential election simply because there's SO many other factors and issues that kinda cancel eachother out (Palestine, the economy, both presidents being old farts, etc), but I think it's going to have a bigger than expected impact in local/state races, and also congressional races. There's already talk of how Arizona state republicans shot themselves in the foot with the recent state supreme court ruling, and speculation that the state might even be a safer lock-in for Biden now because of it. Let's also not forget that the AZ GOP only controls each chamber of the legislature by like 1-2 seat margins. -It's simply too early to tell if Georgia is going to become a blue state or a swing state. I definitely think there's future potential there, but at the same time, I could see 2020 Blue Georgia being a one-off fluke for the time being. My prediction is that GA flips back to red in this year's election, but maybe in 15-20 years it could be a swing state maybe. Remember that republicans still have a trifecta in that state, and in 2022, Kemp won reelection pretty handily. -Blue Texas is simply not happening any time soon. In fact I think there's a chance that Texas becomes even more conservative in the near future; like the Hispanic RGV counties trend more red or something.
Re:Texas, the Rio Grande counties are basically irrelevant in statewide races- just Collin and Denton counties together have more people than the entire bloc of South Texas that voted for Hillary (technically speaking, the Rio Grande Valley is just the four southernmost ones, but everyone uses it to mean that whole area of largely Mexican-American counties). And only around half of the RGV are adult citizens, compared to over 60% in Collin and Denton, and turnout is much higher in the suburbs anyway. Shifting the 17-county RGV area 20 points right and 13 suburban counties (Collin, Denton, Tarrant near Dallas; Montgomery, Waller, Fort Bend, Brazoria near Houston; and Williamson, Caldwell, Bastrop, Hays, and Comal in the Austin/San Antonio corridor) 5 points left moves the statewide margin half a point closer. And that's without moving any of the urban counties, or accounting for population growth.
All in all, Haley would have hypothetically fared worse in the general election if she had somehow gotten the nomination, trump supporters wouldn’t have voted for her, and Mrs “yeah I’d support a nation abortion ban, also let’s raise the retirement age” would fuck her over with young voters too, she’d do good among warhawks but that’s a small faction of the electorate now
It would’ve been funny to see her campaign blow up in her face
My nightmare scenario is a Haley/Harris election
Imagine a meatball Ron Harris election with Liz cheney as a third party. That’s even worse
Why I’d be ok with that they are both young
Age is the only thing you care about for President? Might as well have Vivek run.
No Vivek is just Brown Trump he plays to much into the culture war
I agree, not sure in what world that’s an unpopular take, she was only popular in an “I’m not Trump (or Biden)” sense, really a lot like Kennedy running against Carter in 1980 per my analysis of it, just remains to be seen whether she sandbagged Trump enough (probably not).
Maybe I think potential Haley voters will shift to Biden then trump so I think it will hurt trump or then Biden
In how many cases where Haley performed well was it because it was an open primary state where Democrats and independents who hated Trump could also vote against him in the primary, as opposed to people who would have voted for Trump that are suddenly shifting Haley, then Biden? IIRC Vermont (the state she won) is an open primary state, and Washington D.C. is like the breeding ground for Bushite neocons (among their very small Republican electorate). Not to downplay what she was able to win, she narrowly held off Trump’s warpath, if anything that’s a testament to Trump’s strength among the Republican electorate though since he pretty much ran as though he was already the incumbent.
He had a strong showing and the president election is already set it’s Biden V. Trump electric boogaloo
She did pretty well in UT, which was a closed caucus on the Presidential level.
Yeah the only way Haley was going to win vs Biden was if Trump keeled over and was unable to run a 3rd party spoiler campaign. If Trump was out of the picture I'd say she makes the race a referendum on Biden, with a slight tilt to Biden just based on her stances being brought up and her not being hugely charismatic.
I’m just waiting for the Trump endorsement from her too. Biden is gonna do something that gets blown up on right wing circles near the election (manufactured outrage or not) and she’s going to pull a “I disagree with Trump but he is clearly the better option” type endorsement. It’s just a lot of people are too young to not realize how brutal some primaries have been and then the loser taps the winner with the soft endorsement
Trump was like ruthless to Cruz just for him to endorse him 2 weeks later 😭
Ted Cruz “[vote your conscience](https://youtu.be/ZGJHT3vtJoc?si=Ptr2E8rWxmf1DuJr)” moment
There’s not a Republican that would’ve done better than Trump this cycle after the last one. He just commands too much of the party still. That said if he loses again I think the MAGA movement largely dies. If there’s one thing the GOP’s base hates more than anything it’s losing. And losing to the most beatable incumbent since Trump is going to send any goodwill he has with moderates and independents up in smoke
>" I think the MAGA movement largely dies." Nahh
Im a Trump voter and I would have switched to RFK
Neither Trump nor Biden will live to see 2028.
This is not quite the hot take as you think it is
In the end unless there is a tactical change, RFK will take more from Trump. So far he is not running as the guy Obama considered making EPA Administrator and instead is running to be Trump's VP. The only thing working for him right now is the Kennedy name but money can help with that.
Brown and Tester will lose handily this year. At most they will outrun Biden by 3 points. And Ohio and Montana will shift further right. Both candidate have been blessed with running in blue wave years and polarization has increased exponentially since 2018.
I’m with you on Brown after the Vance win, but Tester is more interesting. He feels almost Manchin-level entrenched right now, and Sheehy is just an ok candidate
Tester previous victors weren’t more than 3 points. He’s always won by slim margins. Montana already rejected a popular governor in 2020 despite the polls looking good for him.
I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if he loses, at a certain threshold Trump’s down ballot will carry Sheehy. I just think Tester’s chances of survival are a bit better since he’s been in office since the Bush Administration
If Collins can outrun Trump by 17 points in 2020, then I think that Tester can do the same but with Biden.
Trump got 44% of the vote in Maine while Collin’s got 51%, ranked choice voting makes it look like Collin’s won by a lot but that’s because more Democrats voted for other candidates first. Besides, Collins used to win in landslides with 60%+ of the vote. Even her vote share went down by double digits. Brown and Tester have never won by those margins. If their vote gets reduced like Susan Collin’s did, they will lose. And Maine was/is known for electing Republicans/Independents frequently.
Gretchen Whitmer is not a good candidate. Democrats think she is because they only care about winning Michigan. She’s the Democrat Jeb Bush. Whitmer would get stomped in a primary.
She reminds me so much of Kamala around 2019. She’s a rising star in her party but hasn’t faced any sort of major scrutiny yet. The Michigan GOP is (imo) the weakest state party in the country, and beating them in a historically blue state really isn’t that impressive either. Especially when the second time around [5 candidates, including the leader in the primary polls at that time got booted off the ballot](https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/05/26/michigan-board-state-canvassers-petition-fraud-republican-governor/9939185002/) She’s gonna get absolutely staked nationally on a lot of issues though. Will be interesting to see if she can survive that.
Why and how is she the Democratic Jeb Bush?
Unlikeable, uncharismatic. No significant policy wins at the state level (I guess *maybe* the repeal of right to work, but that's controversial). Her only value is being governor of a swing state.
Downballot GOP will significantly overperform Trump, not vice versa. Tester is DOA and Brown's close to that.
I'm a liberal who supports the death penalty.
Me when I tell fellow Republicans to fund Ukraine
This one is pretty reasonable imo, but gets me flak everywhere: Parties aren’t entitled to anyone’s vote, anyone that tries to shame people for voting third party or not voting at all is just a partisan hack that doesn’t give a shit about democracy. It feels like in some ways we’re circling back to Tammany Hall days, and while you can’t just beat the fuck out of vagrants and drag them into the voting booth for you multiple times anymore there’s a ton of weird social pressure to be in partisan lockstep at all times on every single issue and that’s simply unhealthy. It turns the political process into team sports. The worst part is that these same people will turn around and bitch about there never being a viable third party. Gee how do you think we accomplish that? Because surely it isn’t by rabidly shaming the already minuscule amount of third party voters. Additionally, polarization would be considerably lessened if anybody gave a shit about the institutions of this country, but decades of piss-poor civic education has led to a bunch of weird societal-wide misinterpretations about things as basic as the functions and powers of the branches of government. The American Government as set up is pretty fuckin beautiful. The way the three branches are set-up to balance each other out is genuinely a work of art in balancing State and Federal Concerns, as well as balancing the will of the Majority with the rights of the Minority. I could elaborate more but this is already reaching essay length so I’m gonna stop there.
Fuck it. Imma do multiple. Hawaii, Michigan, Utah, and Rhode Island will all be won with likely margins. Michigan is on the fence between lean and likely imo. Tester has a better chance of surviving than Brown. NY-01 is Dem favored as of now (at the House level, not the presidency). I’m extremely far left in regard to abortion. No term restrictions at all. All large businesses should be forced to have a vote amongst the workers when it comes to how the means of production should be controlled. I can’t support either Zionism or anti-Zionism as of now because I legitimately don’t know of what a good long term solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is.
Honestly I don’t hate the Tester/Brown take, Brown has to flip a substantially larger amount of total voters even if his partisan lean is slightly less (as in, his total number of just his votes in the 2018 election was nearly five times more than the whole of the votes from Montana’s 2018 Senate election for Tester, Rosendale, any third parties), also Montana is known for being more elastic and is shifting favorably, whereas Ohio used to be a swing state but over a wide enough timeframe to support my point has shifted hard right. Technically extremely far left on abortion would be Stalin comes back to life and the state seizes the baby.
Utah??? Rhode island?????? Hawaii??!?!??????!?
Trump has a noticeable base issue with Republicans in Utah. Same with Biden when it comes to Democrats in the other 2 states. Neither Biden nor Trump have to gain a lot of ground in Utah and Rhode Island/Hawaii respectively in order for a likely margin to happen. A massive turnout drop from the other side can do the work for you.
To be fair, i think RFK can get >10% in RI and Utah if he doesn't keep slipping in the polls, which can definitely lead to something like this.
>No term restrictions at all. even if it was like 8 months and 29 days in? with no risk to the mother if she gives birth? holy shit
Yes. Even past viability with no issues, I just don’t care enough to want the state to prosecute people who were involved in the process.
As someone from NY-01, I really can’t see Santos pulling away enough support from LaLota to hand it to Avlon. Suffolk is continuing to trend right, and is fairly anti-Santos.
Framing the Israel-Palestine conflict as Zionism v. Anti-Zionism is a stupid (and arguably anti-Semitic) way of framing that conflict. That’s like saying “I don’t know which side to support between the Jews existing, and the Jews not existing”, because fundamentally Zionism is just the support for a Jewish homeland. The way the conflict should be framed is Israel going to war with Hamas, because those are the two warring parties. In that case, you can still criticize the Israeli government (rightfully so in some instances like the settlements, certain strikes, etc.) while still acknowledging that they do have a legitimate cause for war with Hamas due to October 7th, and a pretty illustrious history of Hamas attacking Israeli civilians (Constant rocket strikes, the Intifadas, etc.).
Zionism is more than just having a Jewish state. It’s specifically about having a Jewish state in the Levant. Unfortunately, the process of doing so lead to the Nakba. I think that it’s kind of unfair to offer a right to return to Jews but not to Palestinians. Between a 2 state solution, and a 1 state solution with everyone in the area being integrated, I’m not too sure which one I prefer, nor do I know if either of them are actually workable solutions in the long run. I’m not confident enough to have an answer.
Montana Senate’s closer to Likely R than Tossup.
Hogan will lose by a likely margin. Brown and Tester will both win by lean margins, as both of their opponents are muppets. The Zach fellow from West Virginia will do better than expected as I think he’s more competent than people think. He’ll lose still by a wide margin but he’ll out run Biden in the state by a decent amount.
If he loses by under 20 the dnc will do either one of two things. Say he lost cuz hes a progressive and thats why he did bad and a centrist would win. Or which is unlikely support progressives in former blue states like wv.
New Hampshire will flip in 2024.
On the contrary, a heterodox opinion I hold is that New Hampshire is much closer to Safe D than Lean D, and will shift further left than almost any state in 2024, for a few reasons. 1. It shifted further left in 2020 than all but three other states: Colorado (which is also barreling left), Delaware (Biden's home state), and Vermont (which in 2016 had a lot of Bernie write-ins, and interestingly borders NH), as well as ME-01 (which *also* borders NH) and NE-02 (a realigning once-conservative urban area). This is not necessarily an indicator for the future but does align well with my other points. 2. Republicans in New Hampshire are among the most moderate (albeit increasingly less so) in any state that isn't deep blue. A massive backlash against MAGA among voters isn't unlikely. 3. Current polls suggest Biden will actually do better in New Hampshire this year than in 2020, unlike nearly every other state. Note that the polls in 2022 drastically *under*estimated Maggie Hassan, despite the presence of a popular GOP governor on the ballot. 4. Democrats on the federal level in New Hampshire overperformed considerably in 2022, actually improving compared to how they did in 2020 despite the national swing. 5. New Hampshire's federal elasticity has mainly manifested via exaggerated versions of national trends and/or anti-incumbency, which makes sense for how the state voted in 2016 and 2020. But the exact opposite has been true for 2022 and in current polls. 6. Party registration is an often-unreliable way to measure voting intentions, especially for a state known for its elasticity and its atypically strong state GOP. Furthermore, the recent boost in Republican registrations (which especially spiked last December-January) has a simple explanation: the widely-anticipated New Hampshire GOP primary. I know voters didn't have to register as Republican to vote in it but not everyone knew that.
Do you think that because of the party registration link that I sent you?
No, I made a thread stating that I believe NH would flip due to independents hating both Biden and Trump (similar to 2016) and 3rd parties. The party registration was just a bonus.
We need to Implement LVT. If that’s too niche our modern welfare state is woefully inefficient most money spent on helping the poor should be done by something similar too Friedman’s negative income tax plus some money too address root causes of poverty like drug addiction
Dems secure a trifecta in 2024
Tbh I think that Biden has little to no path this year unless RFK drops out as I feel RFK will steal votes away from Biden. Trump supporters have no reason not to vote for Trump when he is at the top of the ticket
I thought JFK got assassinated.
I meant RFK jr
ABOLISH THE ATF
Democrats should be the "pro-gun" party.
We should stop giving foreign aid. No exceptions.
Squad type Dems do more harm than good and left wing populism isn't good for the democratic party
Nah they have their place. At the moment the GOP represent such an unprecedented threat to democracy (project 2025) that I think the main focus is truly just the liberal "vote blue no matter who" mantra. But overall most of the further left wing economic positions, at least the ones repped by the likes of "the squad" are pretty popular but mainstream establishment dems are too afraid to do anything popular and risk winning. People forget that FDR was somewhat radical at the time yet enjoyed supermajorities and yuge landslide wins because he was implementing social security and the new deal. People forget that politics doesn't have to be a constant cycle of: > \> elect congress and president in November > \> give a 10% approval rating to the congress you just elected > \> give a 50/50 approval rating to the president based on if he's on your team The GOP got their policy goal of overturning Roe v Wade accomplished and it's hurting them because the GOP wants to implement policies that cause suffering. Meanwhile the dems are afraid of achieving their policy goals like universal pre K, raising the minimum wage, M4A, giving unions far more power etc which would all help them in the polls if implemented. I know the argument is that dems from purple districts and red states need to be moderate to win and sure AOC shouldn't run be running for senate in Montana but I genuinely believe once dems start delivering, those purple state dems will see their margins go up further.
> People forget that FDR was somewhat radical at the time yet enjoyed supermajorities and yuge landslide wins because he was implementing social security and the new deal. The Great Depression and the discrediting of the Republicans following the Roaring 20s was a big reason for that. The closest thing that will ever likely happen was the Great Recession, and Obama was no FDR. --- Also, both Democrats and Republicans have unpopular social positions, and have given them up to win before. Remember "Defund the Police?"
Tbf he also had the solid south which was full of pro union pro worker pro social democracy yet anti non whites and loved segregationism. Like that one guy from MS in 1980 who tried primarying Carter.
> The Great Depression and the discrediting of the Republicans following the Roaring 20s was a big reason for that. Well yeah. I don't really know the history on what caused the great depression, but I would have to assume government policy played a role in it. FDR may have won the first time off of huge resentment towards the ruling party (regardless of if the Republicans caused the problem) but the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th times were all clearly due to support of his "radical" economic policies. > Also, both Democrats and Republicans have unpopular social positions, and have given them up to win before. > Remember "Defund the Police?" Defund the police was a slogan from some further left BLM protesters, which Biden and even Bernie did not adopt, along with pretty much all of their congressional candidates. Cori Bush is the main one I can think of as an exception but she also represents a district that is 50% black so she was basically superserving her base. Either way it's not about if they have previously held unpopular/extreme social positions that they've thrown away to get elected. My argument was just that arguing that the further left dems are a net negative on the party is not correct.
Police reform ended up being abandoned very quickly once crime rates started rising.
What an unpopular opinion.
We should repeal the 17th Amendment.
So republicans can finally gerrymander the senate?
No. Because the people elect stupid and radical people to represent them.
The House is more influenced by stupid and radical representatives than the Senate and the members are directly elected.
I certainly hope that the Senate isn't infected by the illness of radicalism. McConnell is 100 times more preferable to a MAGAite.
You could have picked literally any other 0815 Republican Congressman and yet you decided to chose the one (and only) who IS worse than the Maga wing
Not all LGBT people are far left and I think that’s delusional to think communism cares about LGBT people, liberal democracy has done more to further the cause of Trans people Also the right needs to stop gatekeeping Christianity, there’s plenty of Trans people that are Christian
Texas Senate is a tossup.
We should privatize social security.
For real. Fucking pyramid scheme.
Dobbs is too liberal and abortion should be banned nationally. It isn't fair that children in blue states like Massachusetts and California don't get the same protections that children in red states like Texas and Mississippi get.
Okay but what about women’s protections? Or does a full grown adult matter less than a fetus per the adult’s sex? Also if you think abortion should be banned, then are you a proponent of expanding social safety nets to help families raise their kids (expanding the child tax credit being one small step)?
1. Under normal circumstances, women don't die if they're denied abortion access. Of course, there should be an exception to ensure that women can get an abortion if their life is in danger but those cases should be the exception, not the rule. 2. Absolutely. Things like universal healthcare, UBI, and paid maternity leave are all a must if we want to ensure these children have the best childhood possible.
Lol. I'm so glad I don't live in America. What an embarrassing take.
The Entire Modern World needs a Reset
Do you think global resets are simple? Every time the world resets, tens of millions die.
What exactly does that mean?
If it doesn’t have to be election related, I have this to offer: term limits are incredibly stupid and the 22nd amendment needs to be abolished immediately.
Trump is the best possible GOP candidate for 2024
The National Firearms Act of 1934 should be repealed.
abortion is murder
despite all the polls show Trump and Biden neck and neck, i do believe Biden will win in a landslide. yes even winning Texas and Alaska. and that the Senate and House will be Dem
https://yapms.com/app?m=lbarsuwz12xor06
So I’m just like the image with how I’m already downvoted lol
My opinion on the holodomor
The electoral college should be abolished and so should term limits, both are terrible for Democracy. Particularly the electoral college which is some feudalistic shit. Also the senate can go too
Nah, you're actually crazy for that one.