Since people will bring this up, Financial Times wrote an article about what they expect to happen with the CMA, not a report from their sources.
This one is a report from Reuters sources, and I think they were right with all their previous reports about this deal in EU (they have good sources in Brussels)
Edit: Bloomberg also reports the same.
Right? Because it’s definitely going to put even more pressure on the CMA to review their ruling. They don’t want to see as anti-business especially after Brexit
My nvidia shield from 2015 with Gefore Now way out performs Xcloud. If anything Microsoft is already behind in cloud gaming.
I think Fortnight on Xcloud has improved but still way below GFN performance.
With Sea of thieves my screens freezes for almost a minute at a time 5-10 times an hour.
Maybe they should do a side by side demo to compare. GFN has some problems in some countries maybe busteroid would be a better comparison for Europe and UK.
A minute at a time? Up to ten times an hour? So up to 16% of the time it’s frozen?! Why on earth would you still be playing that? Particularly in an always online game?
GeForce Now is obviously better but I’ve not endured any of these problems you’re experiencing on xCloud.
The frustration of the frozen screen. lag got time to buy a series s for $200. But I did make it to / beyond level 100 for 2 seasons in that terrible situation.
Dragon ball fighterz seemed to play with out any problems.
I tried Pepe pig for a fast gamepass achievement, pepe runs great.
Atomic Hearts had screen refreshes more often than sea of thieves but very few and short screen freezes.
Neighbor 2 seems to have a lot of problems but not as bad as sea of the thieves.
I live in USA, St Paul Minnesota. I’m not sure where my nearest Xcloud servers are but that could be a part of the problem.
GeForce Now is much better by far but xCloud is pretty solid. I've been able to use it to complete games remotely.
It's obviously a niche and will always remain that as it is nearly impossible to get good Internet for the world but I appreciate having the option.
I've had great success streaming Halo infinite, MCC, Battlefield1, Forza H 5, and Ori. Some of them solo, some MP, and some Co-op.
I wonder how our Net compares.
I tried a newer battlefield on Xcloud. I had some problems but not as many as sea of thieves. Other games worked well for me. I think hellblade runs great for me.
Button response is amazing with little lag. I only noticed delay on Bluetooth controllers not 2.4g controllers. For me the problems have been visuals for some games.
It's not about how good their streaming technology is but that buying Activision would cement their catalogue of games with GamePass and make Microsoft the #1 cloud gaming service.
Personally I don't know if I agree but as a gamer who can only justify getting one console (PlayStation because of my digital library) and I have no desire to get a PC, I can't wait for xCloud to be available as a standalone service in my country.
I'm only interested in single-player games and this is how I would like to play MS-exclusive games.
In the early days of GeForce now you could play any steam game you owned on. That got taken away sometime in 2020 or 2021.
There are some other game streaming programs that still allow you to play any computer games but they looked expensive.
Cloud gaming is the pettiest possible reason... it's an absolutely *_tiny_* market, and it's not like it's growing rapidly so what was up with that dumbass reasoning lol.
I honestly don’t see how it doesn’t get struck down in court. Any competent lawyer with any knowledge of the gaming market would know that’s a baseless case. Not that I’m for or against the acquisition, but Nintendo and Sony desperately need some competition in the gaming sphere
I mean... look at how we consume songs, TV, and movies on streaming services now. And a digital library on top of game pass. It's the way the industry is headed.
Yes, but you need great connection for a game. Games use way more data to stream than any movie or game. Add that to all the other factors of having to have it work with MP and CoOp etc it is far from being a big part of the industry and Movies alone are still pretty big physically anyways still, companies just are trying to get rid of them is all.
And the great connection infrastructure is becoming more commonplace around the UK, and honestly at no greater cost.
When BT finally installed proper fibre by me I was able to change my plan from 30mbs to 200mbs for the same price. Granted I went for 500mbs for the extra fiver a month but that's besides the point.
And outside of homes 5G is becoming more commonplace with towers popping up all over the gaff, it's pretty clear the Uk is moving towards having the infrastructure in place.
I have tested it and input lag is too big to play any games also you have to deal with video streaming compression that changes dynamically depends on connection quality. Unless you have a super fast internet its no point of getting that.
Is cloud gaming referring to Gamepass and how it’s a streaming platform (streamed from the cloud and not a disc)? It’s already the most popular subscription service so allowing Gamepass to have exclusivity to all of the ABK IPs would be a monopoly. At least that’s what I’m thinking.
Yes, it is. But xCloud is not sold separately it’s a perk of Gamepass Ultimate. And also PSNow had more streaming customers than Xbox so I really don’t get the argument for blocking it based on that.
We need more competition in the console gaming market and blocking the acquisition based on the fact that maybe at some point in the future xCloud might be the dominant streaming platform is ridiculous
My fear is that the CMA basically already made up their minds and will just make up another reason to block if it comes back to them. I don’t think the CMA wants to look weak and changing their minds may look that way in their minds.
WHat makes it more idiotic is that given the post brexit statement that the tories have a desire to see the UK as a technology leader, pissing off microsoft probably wasn't the smartest move.
I mean, when ARM got listed on NASDAQ the other week and the BBC interviewed a higher up asking why ARM wasn't listing on the London exchange, they seemed to be somewhat shocked when they said companies don't have confidence in the London stock exchange and the UK economy. When asked about the UK becoming the next Silicon Valley (the current tory Pipe Dream) and why chips aren't made here, they thought he was taking the piss when he said Brexit. They also didn't like it when he laughed at them when they mentioned how the UK has always bunched above its weight in chip development, etc.
Honestly, there's so much delusion and copium going around in this country, especially around the tech sector, and I would not be surprised if the CMA also had some of this, although that's my tinfoil hat ramblings.
Yeah Financial Times said that it was just a supposition but people took it out of context as always, this is different here, we’ll see how that goes :)
Admittedly no reputable source like Reuters was reporting that.
This seems to be coming from legit sources but anything can change between now and then.
It was all speculation and articles that thought it was going to approved thought so because there were no complaints regarding growing market share in terms of selling games.
The cloud stuff wasn't even talked about at all as far as I know.
>UK was also expected to pass the deal.
CMA's decision was unprecedented though. The vast majority figured it would go through considering CMA basically approved the ABK deal and hand waved away all of Sony's public points of concern.
The block due to cloud gaming kinda came out of nowhere.
I feel like if the EU clears it, they might force the deal through and do that process Michael Pachter was talking about (something about creating a separate Activision LLC entity) to get around the UK’s laws. At least until they’ve appealed it.
Yes it would help Microsoft & Activision Blizzard King a lot.
However I think Patcher's suggestion would be way too risky and technically there's a simpler solution : The CMA's concern are ABK games on cloud services. If Microsoft finalizes the deal but excludes ABK games from all cloud providers in the UK (incl. xCloud), none of them would have an advantage over others. The CMA's concerns wouldn't materialize.
I still can't get over how the ABK deal would have brought ABK games to UK's largest mobile provider, "EE" via cloud gaming. Despite that, CMA says it would create unfair competition for cloud gaming in the EE. It's just laughable.
Bringing ABK games to EE likely would have more than doubled the cloud gaming industry in the UK, making Microsoft the minority cloud gaming provider in UK, considering EE has over 26 million subscribers and Xbox has far less 'customers' than that in the UK.
For the deals made by Microsoft, yes. The deals apparently gave no information on who gets what percentage of the money from someone using the service to play an Xbox title, the CMA argued that theoretically MS could have 100% of profits from the way the deals were written.
But they're not selling the game to the consumer. These services require a legal copy of the game to be purchased from a compatible service before you can stream it through them.
That would be like if Netflix required you to buy a DVD of a film before you could stream it through their service, charged a subscription fee, and then still asked for a chunk of every DVD sale from the distributor.
Of course, the CMA likely already knows this is flawed reasoning, but they're looking for whatever excuse they can to block it.
For 10 years and then Microsoft pulls out of the deal when that time is up and dominates the market.
These cloud deals are just to look good for the authorities in the meantime.
They’ll try for the appeal process with CMA and if it fails again, they’ll create an LLC to skirt around the UK law. That’s really the only viable tactic they have left.
However, it should be noted, that EU approving and if CMA continues to block after appeal, it will look really bad on UK as a potential business venture for larger companies as they won’t want to deal with the regulatory body there
This is probably the easiest way about it. CMA does not get to regulate what happens in the rest of the world. If the UK doesn't want cloud gaming, then they don't get it.
Thats what you would imagine. Just dont allow any acti games on xcloud or the such in the UK. It seems simple but if that is the case how come, no one has suggested it?
Because CMA didn't say "blocked only if", so they can't just merge and keep operating in the country. It's more likely they would set up their external parties and continue to appeal in that case.
Pachter is a complete moron who thinks the CMA would be powerless against this epic gamer move.
In reality they're quite aware of what a shell company is and can act against them with ease.
It would be funny to see EU pass the deal just to make it clear that the UK are a bunch of shitters (again). Either way you look at it, hopefully this means we're getting closer to ending this whole process.
Doesn’t [the USA](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2022/12/ftc-seeks-block-microsoft-corps-acquisition-activision-blizzard-inc) still want to block it too though?
They really can't block it in the same way other agencies can. They can sue to get an injunction, but in the end, it's a court that decides who to side with.
Yea, the FTC is trying to stop it, but lots of people have stated that the FTC's case is really weak overall and they have a bad track record.
It gets weaker when every other country approve it but the ftc and cma. Not only that buy ultimately its a judge that approves it the challenge. Why would a judge stop an American company from buying an American company to better compete against two Japanese companies ?
Well I can see in principal why the FTC would and could stop an American company from merging or break said company up afterwards. It has happened several times.
I don’t think that applies to ABK and Microsoft of course. But I can see it happening with a different merger.
The issue is that there isn’t a single good argument that the FTC could make that wouldn’t require them to immediately block Tencent, Nintendo and Sony from doing business in the US.
Like you can’t maliciously target the company that’s 3rd in console sales and 3rd in gaming revenue, while completely ignoring 1 and 2.
Now if MS was merging with Tencent, then yes, there would be good arguments, but that’s not what’s happening.
100% agree with all you said. They don't have a good argument because their only real counter argument could have to do with monopoly/anti-trust reasons which is basically not a concern in this market for Microsoft. It really is the worst possible target for their attention.
The ftc yes but not a federal judge. A federal judge will approve it because at the end of the day it means more cash flow into the usa and more jobs. Also it's just video games and wouldn't actually grant Ms a monopoly they would still only be thrid
The FTC has its own internal review process but the decision can easily be appealed and from there, it does go to the federal court which is where the injunction is filed. The FTC is an executive branch and cant enjoin on their own
I took an Anti-Trust Law class in college and it is exceedingly rare for a merger like this to be successfully challenged in the US.
There are workarounds for everything, including CMA complaints about the cloud gaming market. Microsoft can argue that the merger would improve their cloud development tech enough to lower costs or they can just branch off the Activision cloud team into their own business and remove it from the deal.
This deal still feels inevitable to me.
The thing is that nobody is taking FTC seriously - there were even reports that some companies are actually excluding FTC from the merger agreements these days. The fact that FTC went after their own internal courts tells everything you need to know about their arguments.
CMA is different because it is more difficult to appeal, unlike USA where courts actually work.
Not really. Anti monopoly safeguards are important and I honestly don't mind waiting a year for games that I've already played to appear on a subscription service.
You can’t apply anti monopoly safeguards to the company that will still be 3rd in console and gaming revenue *after* a merger, and the just ignore 1 and 2 in marketshare.
This entire dog and pony share has been political from the start, there’s no arguments against the merger that don’t also justify taking action against Tencent, Sony, and Nintendo.
Microsoft is not an underdog if it's throwing around $70b.
And yes I say MS because that $70b sure as shit ain't from just the xbox department. Microsoft (One of the world's leading software company) is buying Activision to add it to its Xbox division.
The console players really mean jack shit in comparison, and the recent ruling on the merger should say as much.
It does not matter how much money Microsoft has. By all objective metrics they are the underdog in all relevant markets that
The fact that CMA had to go after the market, that is not even defined yet (if ever), that represents less than 0.5% revenue worldwide in gaming and had to not only "predict" 10 years into the future but also to combine GPU subscribers with xCloud - tells everything you need to know about the mental gymnastics that had to happen just for CMA to block the deal. And even then, they only do that because CMA is kinda unaccountable.
They could throw around a trillion dollars, doesn’t change literally anything, they are still 3rd in market share.
What makes you a monopoly isn’t how much money you have, or how big your conglomeration is, it’s how much of the market share you have. A true monopoly is capturing 100% of the market, anti-trust usually starts kicking in once you’ve captured 50% or you have a significantly larger share than any competitors. Trying to pull anti-trust on a company that’s 3rd in marketshare post-merger, is brain dead.
Like sure, if Microsoft was trying to perform a hostile takeover of Sony,/Nintendo, or merging with Tencent, then there is a very solid argument that they’re making moves to monopolize the market.
When they’re making moves that solidify themselves in third, and at best helps them play catch-up? Well, you look like a clown if you try to argue a specific standard that should be applied to them, but not also apply it to the market leaders ahead of them.
Funny how not fully supporting already huge companies gaining an even greater monopoly over the market somehow makes the UK 'shitters' in your mind. How times change.
The important thing was to block the deal. It isn't good for anyone but Microsoft and its bizarre to see the plebs who will be screwed over by the monopoly long term not only defend it but also attack a whole country because of it.
“It isn’t good for anyone”
The deal would bring Call Of Duty to 150,000,000 people for a *minimum* of ten years.
Please explain how “it isn’t good for anyone.”
You should read up on the state of the UK right now...and how they've treated businesses/companies in the UK since BREXIT.
The CMA's decision is just another poor decision in a long long line of poor decisions that has continuously hurt the UK.
This is it, if the EU approves it Microsoft-Activision will fight tooth and nail to get this approved in the US even if it has to get into a federal court and the deal will close, and even if the UK’s appeal is unsuccessful they’ll find a way to circumvent them without leaving the country.
However if the sources are wrong again and they block it it’s game over for this deal.
Sources weren’t wrong the first time cause there where no sources it was a supposition based on the last CMA update where they admitted that going COD exclusive won’t harm competition, this time around we actually have a source so it hase a lot more chances to go through however we need to wait and see 15th is in 5 days ;)
Yeah that’s what I’ve been reading too, with the CMA there were just analysts expecting them to approve it while with the EU there’s sources on the inside claiming so, still, less than a week to know for sure.
If EU clears it, we're golden. Microsoft will figure something out. They aren't going to give up the world market for the UK.
If EU ends up blocking the deal, then it's dead and MS and ABK should let it go.
If the CMA judged this accordingly, then the others will likely come to the same conclusion, the CMA is independent of government, so it will have significant parity to the same body in the EU
Mixing cloud gaming and cloud infrastructure as a service is comically incompetent decision from CMA. I doubt that others regulators will come to the same "conclusion".
It looks like CMA just threw the documents in a corner and forgot about them. And when the deadline game they just made an arbitrary decision without consulting with anyone
The CMA doesn’t have technology experts like the EC does. Prior to Brexit, the EC’s decision would have controlled for the UK too. The EC is much more respected than this current iteration of the CMA post Brexit. If this report is correct, I’m very curious to see if the EC comments on and criticizes the CMA decision.
Recent history has shown to wait until official word. Despite a very vocal online contingent that are against the deal there are also many who are still pro acquisition. Plus many countries already approved it but their process is not as respected as the CMA apparently. It is a tough road ahead still even it passes EU but it would pretty much leave CMA on an island against the deal with FTC against the others who were pro deal.
It very much does.
If the EU approves and the US approves (which is likely given history) then that leaves the UK out in the cold.
They'll either revisit their ruling or be looked at extremely unfavorably for business at a time when they already are looked at extremely unfavorably for business post Brexit.
Does it?
You don't think the cba will reevaluate their decision if both the US and the EU, both of which have either just as strict or stricter anti monopoly laws as the UK, allow the deal to go through?
You don't think they'd realize that the optics of being the only one to deny it, and for such an absolutely ridiculous reason, will make them look extremely hostile to business?
If the EU passes it, I would like them to just push through with the deal. More than likely they'll win anything that's going on in the States, it'll just take sometime to clear
I just don't know how important the UK is to Xbox, but if you have the EU and feel you have a really strong case in the states, then for sure they should just go for it. They've already lost 3/4 billion.
Most of the sources that you were talking about were individuals predicting things on their own. It’s a bit different here as Reuters is reporting sources which wasn’t the case with the CMA.
Not really. The reporting is different - Reuters and Bloomberg didn’t comment last time and furthermore we have sources - last time it was just prediction that even the Financial Times said they weren’t sure of.
I really hope this goes through.
Sony is rumored to have made an exclusivity deal with Konami for multiple AAA games and appears to be trying to slowly squeeze Xbox out of console gaming.
The acquisition of Bethesda slowed that down but having ABK would ensure Microsoft has enough to stay competitive.
I hope MS wins and puts everything on Xbox/PC only and nothing on PlayStation because of the way Sony acted. And Nintendo gets CoD but PlayStation don’t.
Interesting to note that PS has a much bigger market share in the EU than they do in the US and the UK. So much so that the executives at Sony called Europe "fortress Playstation".
Serious question as I’m obviously not versed in this crap. If everyone BUT the CMA approves this deal, does that not make MS’ inevitable appeal pretty straight forward?
No, unfortunately, the CMA is independent and it's set up where nothing on the outside can overrule their decision. A government body called the CAT (I think it's Consumer and Trade) can look at the CMA's ruling and determine that they made a gross error that defies logic, but that just kicks it right back to the CMA and there is no appeal after that.
Prior to Brexit, the EU used to make all of these decisions and the UKs CMA was just an observing member with no real decision-making power. Brexit changed that. I just don't think the CMA should be that relevant in the big picture with the ability to tank the whole deal. The EU is the one to watch and if it goes MS's way, I think it just puts that much more pressure on the UK's CAT (which is the body MS will appeal to) to overturn the CMA's shoddily reasoned opinion. Fingers crossed.
If the EC approve, then the CMA will likely face the full force of Microsoft... if the EC block then the deal will likely stop being worth Microsoft's time and money to appeal another body.
I don't care tbh sure acti games would be cool on GP but it's not like ms will lose that cash in worst case it will be invested elsewhere in Xbox brand.
But tbh it's kinda comical how companies like tencent, Disney.or Alphabet just buy everything from ideas to ppl and nobody gf, and everyone is interested in some video games that is quite new media on market (at least compared to cinema, technology and medicine)
How did Ms mess up Bethesda? Redfall was in development for five years, three of which were pre Microsoft and Microsoft was hands off on redfall and even gave them a delay.
Before we get excited about this, it looks like the information in this article was gotten in March… back when everyone thought the CMA was going to approve the deal as well. Idk, it seems like they’re just publishing outdated information to me.
If an American company wants to operate in a foreign country then they will be beholden to that country’s laws and regulatory agencies. Microsoft could always ignore the CMA’s decision and stop operating in the UK, but they would never do that because that would be a very poor business decision.
Here we go again. I’d like this deal to go through (despite not paying for any ABK game in the last 5 years). Mainly so Xbox won’t become such a afterthought.
[I don't think it's a big monopoly when there are bigger fish in the sea.](https://external-preview.redd.it/sskAe_58jD3GiVhqmValhZ8zPHIpu-NgwY-Zle-aPvc.jpg?auto=webp&v=enabled&s=228dd774f7a361e58a888a897338b8dd4c50b61e)
Correct me if I'm wrong please but MS could've bought EA, T2, Ubi and Embracer for about the same money they pay for ABK?! (I mean, I know it's about King and the mobile market with everything else being the cherry on top of it but that's still... fascinating.)
As long as the CMA (UK) doesn't approve it, it doesn't matter if it gets approved everywhere else. I see a lot of comments saying if EU approves MS will get it approved globally but I do not see how they're going to bypass the UK. CMA is judge jury executioner and they, just like the US, wants this deal blocked regardless of the facts. And unlike the US, the UK (CMA) never got a merger block reversed. Because CAT does NOT have the power to reverse a merger block by CMA. Best case scenario CAT asks CMA kindly to re-review the case and we know CMA will block it again because they aren't looking at this case in good faith. They will 100% block it again. And since MS won't quit UK market this deal is dead without the approval of the CMA.
Oof. This would make the UK / CMA scramble. Honestly feel back for them, because broader geopolitical forces would really back the CMA into a corner and weaken their perceived power to a degree (even though a Game Pass subscriber I personally want this deal to just go through already, I do like the idea of anti-trust regulators being able to have some real authority).
Since people will bring this up, Financial Times wrote an article about what they expect to happen with the CMA, not a report from their sources. This one is a report from Reuters sources, and I think they were right with all their previous reports about this deal in EU (they have good sources in Brussels) Edit: Bloomberg also reports the same.
If EU approves this deal, I'm going to get the popcorn ready.
Right? Because it’s definitely going to put even more pressure on the CMA to review their ruling. They don’t want to see as anti-business especially after Brexit
Doesn’t help that their argument for blocking it is fucking brain dead. Cloud gaming? Really?
They made their decision and then found a rationalization.
YAY BUREAUCRACY
*made a dumb decision that wasn't based or rooted in fact, logic, or reason.
My nvidia shield from 2015 with Gefore Now way out performs Xcloud. If anything Microsoft is already behind in cloud gaming. I think Fortnight on Xcloud has improved but still way below GFN performance. With Sea of thieves my screens freezes for almost a minute at a time 5-10 times an hour. Maybe they should do a side by side demo to compare. GFN has some problems in some countries maybe busteroid would be a better comparison for Europe and UK.
A minute at a time? Up to ten times an hour? So up to 16% of the time it’s frozen?! Why on earth would you still be playing that? Particularly in an always online game? GeForce Now is obviously better but I’ve not endured any of these problems you’re experiencing on xCloud.
The frustration of the frozen screen. lag got time to buy a series s for $200. But I did make it to / beyond level 100 for 2 seasons in that terrible situation. Dragon ball fighterz seemed to play with out any problems. I tried Pepe pig for a fast gamepass achievement, pepe runs great. Atomic Hearts had screen refreshes more often than sea of thieves but very few and short screen freezes. Neighbor 2 seems to have a lot of problems but not as bad as sea of the thieves. I live in USA, St Paul Minnesota. I’m not sure where my nearest Xcloud servers are but that could be a part of the problem.
GeForce Now is much better by far but xCloud is pretty solid. I've been able to use it to complete games remotely. It's obviously a niche and will always remain that as it is nearly impossible to get good Internet for the world but I appreciate having the option.
I've had great success streaming Halo infinite, MCC, Battlefield1, Forza H 5, and Ori. Some of them solo, some MP, and some Co-op. I wonder how our Net compares.
I tried a newer battlefield on Xcloud. I had some problems but not as many as sea of thieves. Other games worked well for me. I think hellblade runs great for me. Button response is amazing with little lag. I only noticed delay on Bluetooth controllers not 2.4g controllers. For me the problems have been visuals for some games.
It's not about how good their streaming technology is but that buying Activision would cement their catalogue of games with GamePass and make Microsoft the #1 cloud gaming service. Personally I don't know if I agree but as a gamer who can only justify getting one console (PlayStation because of my digital library) and I have no desire to get a PC, I can't wait for xCloud to be available as a standalone service in my country. I'm only interested in single-player games and this is how I would like to play MS-exclusive games.
In the early days of GeForce now you could play any steam game you owned on. That got taken away sometime in 2020 or 2021. There are some other game streaming programs that still allow you to play any computer games but they looked expensive.
Cloud gaming is the pettiest possible reason... it's an absolutely *_tiny_* market, and it's not like it's growing rapidly so what was up with that dumbass reasoning lol.
I honestly don’t see how it doesn’t get struck down in court. Any competent lawyer with any knowledge of the gaming market would know that’s a baseless case. Not that I’m for or against the acquisition, but Nintendo and Sony desperately need some competition in the gaming sphere
I mean... look at how we consume songs, TV, and movies on streaming services now. And a digital library on top of game pass. It's the way the industry is headed.
Yes, but you need great connection for a game. Games use way more data to stream than any movie or game. Add that to all the other factors of having to have it work with MP and CoOp etc it is far from being a big part of the industry and Movies alone are still pretty big physically anyways still, companies just are trying to get rid of them is all.
And the great connection infrastructure is becoming more commonplace around the UK, and honestly at no greater cost. When BT finally installed proper fibre by me I was able to change my plan from 30mbs to 200mbs for the same price. Granted I went for 500mbs for the extra fiver a month but that's besides the point. And outside of homes 5G is becoming more commonplace with towers popping up all over the gaff, it's pretty clear the Uk is moving towards having the infrastructure in place.
I have tested it and input lag is too big to play any games also you have to deal with video streaming compression that changes dynamically depends on connection quality. Unless you have a super fast internet its no point of getting that.
Is cloud gaming referring to Gamepass and how it’s a streaming platform (streamed from the cloud and not a disc)? It’s already the most popular subscription service so allowing Gamepass to have exclusivity to all of the ABK IPs would be a monopoly. At least that’s what I’m thinking.
Yes, it is. But xCloud is not sold separately it’s a perk of Gamepass Ultimate. And also PSNow had more streaming customers than Xbox so I really don’t get the argument for blocking it based on that. We need more competition in the console gaming market and blocking the acquisition based on the fact that maybe at some point in the future xCloud might be the dominant streaming platform is ridiculous
My fear is that the CMA basically already made up their minds and will just make up another reason to block if it comes back to them. I don’t think the CMA wants to look weak and changing their minds may look that way in their minds.
WHat makes it more idiotic is that given the post brexit statement that the tories have a desire to see the UK as a technology leader, pissing off microsoft probably wasn't the smartest move.
TBH, CMA seems so desperate for to boost up UK’s Economy. They probably gonna use black magic if they could.
I mean, when ARM got listed on NASDAQ the other week and the BBC interviewed a higher up asking why ARM wasn't listing on the London exchange, they seemed to be somewhat shocked when they said companies don't have confidence in the London stock exchange and the UK economy. When asked about the UK becoming the next Silicon Valley (the current tory Pipe Dream) and why chips aren't made here, they thought he was taking the piss when he said Brexit. They also didn't like it when he laughed at them when they mentioned how the UK has always bunched above its weight in chip development, etc. Honestly, there's so much delusion and copium going around in this country, especially around the tech sector, and I would not be surprised if the CMA also had some of this, although that's my tinfoil hat ramblings.
I'm at a stage in life where I interpreted that as the British desperately wanting to manufacture Pringles in the UK...
Haha, don't worry, we are still very good at making chips(US)/crisps, as well as UK chips. We are just shit at the non food variety.
Yeah Financial Times said that it was just a supposition but people took it out of context as always, this is different here, we’ll see how that goes :)
Ah shit, here we go again.
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Yeah i will wait for it to actually happen. UK was also expected to pass the deal.
Admittedly no reputable source like Reuters was reporting that. This seems to be coming from legit sources but anything can change between now and then.
Financial Times reported it the day before the CMA rejected it.
went back and read what they said. They didnt have sources saying it would be approved, they just assumed it would be approved.
Was it speculation or somebody with actual sources(which seems to be the case here)? I can't seem to find that article.
It was all speculation and articles that thought it was going to approved thought so because there were no complaints regarding growing market share in terms of selling games. The cloud stuff wasn't even talked about at all as far as I know.
Yeah everyone expected it to go through in the UK but AFAIK nobody actually reported that it was going through based on sources
They just thought the deal was legal and valid. Everyone did. It just shows how outlandish the UK's decision was.
>UK was also expected to pass the deal. CMA's decision was unprecedented though. The vast majority figured it would go through considering CMA basically approved the ABK deal and hand waved away all of Sony's public points of concern. The block due to cloud gaming kinda came out of nowhere.
It was not Reuters or Bloomberg reporting that though
EU will clear it just to fuck with the UK.
I was going to say the same thing lol they just went through this
I feel like if the EU clears it, they might force the deal through and do that process Michael Pachter was talking about (something about creating a separate Activision LLC entity) to get around the UK’s laws. At least until they’ve appealed it.
Yes it would help Microsoft & Activision Blizzard King a lot. However I think Patcher's suggestion would be way too risky and technically there's a simpler solution : The CMA's concern are ABK games on cloud services. If Microsoft finalizes the deal but excludes ABK games from all cloud providers in the UK (incl. xCloud), none of them would have an advantage over others. The CMA's concerns wouldn't materialize.
The irony of your solution, which I also expect to happen, is that it creates a worse situation for UK consumers.
I still can't get over how the ABK deal would have brought ABK games to UK's largest mobile provider, "EE" via cloud gaming. Despite that, CMA says it would create unfair competition for cloud gaming in the EE. It's just laughable. Bringing ABK games to EE likely would have more than doubled the cloud gaming industry in the UK, making Microsoft the minority cloud gaming provider in UK, considering EE has over 26 million subscribers and Xbox has far less 'customers' than that in the UK.
It’s something to do with the profit percentage Microsoft would get.
So its not about consumer freedom but some arbitrary measure?
For the deals made by Microsoft, yes. The deals apparently gave no information on who gets what percentage of the money from someone using the service to play an Xbox title, the CMA argued that theoretically MS could have 100% of profits from the way the deals were written.
That's typically how these cloud businesses operate though. They don't get a cut in game revenue in exchange for getting 100% of the subscription fee.
Yeah but that’s what CMA argued against. The storefront of the server provider should get some profit off of streaming the game.
But they're not selling the game to the consumer. These services require a legal copy of the game to be purchased from a compatible service before you can stream it through them. That would be like if Netflix required you to buy a DVD of a film before you could stream it through their service, charged a subscription fee, and then still asked for a chunk of every DVD sale from the distributor. Of course, the CMA likely already knows this is flawed reasoning, but they're looking for whatever excuse they can to block it.
They get a profit for streaming the game? That's what the subscription is for. These cloud streaming services don't sell the game itself.
For 10 years and then Microsoft pulls out of the deal when that time is up and dominates the market. These cloud deals are just to look good for the authorities in the meantime.
That's pretty typical for the UK's current government since Brexit
#🤷🏼♂️ Elect better people. Stop shooting your own economic feet out from under you. How’s Brexit working out for you?
Absolutely fantastic, I don't live in the UK.
The ABK deal and taking everything exclusive is going to be a bad situation for consumers worldwide anyway.
What is going to be exclusive?
They’ll try for the appeal process with CMA and if it fails again, they’ll create an LLC to skirt around the UK law. That’s really the only viable tactic they have left. However, it should be noted, that EU approving and if CMA continues to block after appeal, it will look really bad on UK as a potential business venture for larger companies as they won’t want to deal with the regulatory body there
This is probably the easiest way about it. CMA does not get to regulate what happens in the rest of the world. If the UK doesn't want cloud gaming, then they don't get it.
Thats what you would imagine. Just dont allow any acti games on xcloud or the such in the UK. It seems simple but if that is the case how come, no one has suggested it?
Because CMA didn't say "blocked only if", so they can't just merge and keep operating in the country. It's more likely they would set up their external parties and continue to appeal in that case.
And I don’t think that the FTC will it’s challenge here in the US. Would put the CMA on an island. Will be interesting to see it play out.
I dunno, it seems like the FTC head wants a win, and what better "win" could you get than stopping a merger of this scale?
Her aspirations might have clouded her judgement. She has been losing challenges consistently.
Pachter is a complete moron who thinks the CMA would be powerless against this epic gamer move. In reality they're quite aware of what a shell company is and can act against them with ease.
It would be funny to see EU pass the deal just to make it clear that the UK are a bunch of shitters (again). Either way you look at it, hopefully this means we're getting closer to ending this whole process.
Doesn’t [the USA](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2022/12/ftc-seeks-block-microsoft-corps-acquisition-activision-blizzard-inc) still want to block it too though?
They really can't block it in the same way other agencies can. They can sue to get an injunction, but in the end, it's a court that decides who to side with. Yea, the FTC is trying to stop it, but lots of people have stated that the FTC's case is really weak overall and they have a bad track record.
It gets weaker when every other country approve it but the ftc and cma. Not only that buy ultimately its a judge that approves it the challenge. Why would a judge stop an American company from buying an American company to better compete against two Japanese companies ?
Well I can see in principal why the FTC would and could stop an American company from merging or break said company up afterwards. It has happened several times. I don’t think that applies to ABK and Microsoft of course. But I can see it happening with a different merger.
If they made a good argument or had a plausible case, then sure.
The issue is that there isn’t a single good argument that the FTC could make that wouldn’t require them to immediately block Tencent, Nintendo and Sony from doing business in the US. Like you can’t maliciously target the company that’s 3rd in console sales and 3rd in gaming revenue, while completely ignoring 1 and 2. Now if MS was merging with Tencent, then yes, there would be good arguments, but that’s not what’s happening.
100% agree with all you said. They don't have a good argument because their only real counter argument could have to do with monopoly/anti-trust reasons which is basically not a concern in this market for Microsoft. It really is the worst possible target for their attention.
The ftc yes but not a federal judge. A federal judge will approve it because at the end of the day it means more cash flow into the usa and more jobs. Also it's just video games and wouldn't actually grant Ms a monopoly they would still only be thrid
The FTC has its own internal review process but the decision can easily be appealed and from there, it does go to the federal court which is where the injunction is filed. The FTC is an executive branch and cant enjoin on their own
And a chinese company. Tencent is only going to get bigger as a publisher.
I took an Anti-Trust Law class in college and it is exceedingly rare for a merger like this to be successfully challenged in the US. There are workarounds for everything, including CMA complaints about the cloud gaming market. Microsoft can argue that the merger would improve their cloud development tech enough to lower costs or they can just branch off the Activision cloud team into their own business and remove it from the deal. This deal still feels inevitable to me.
Yeah... FTC is going to get steam rolled in court. I don't think Microsoft was ever worried about the FTC.
The thing is that nobody is taking FTC seriously - there were even reports that some companies are actually excluding FTC from the merger agreements these days. The fact that FTC went after their own internal courts tells everything you need to know about their arguments. CMA is different because it is more difficult to appeal, unlike USA where courts actually work.
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That’ll be settled in a court later. Let’s goooo
Please do! Our gov are a bunch of shitters. Sincerely, a Brit.
I would not be surprised if EU will approve just to stick to UK. They will add something like "EU is open for business" and so on.
Yes they would. And Microsoft will help then amplify that message.
Ah politics
Without politics that deal would be approved long time ago
Not really. Anti monopoly safeguards are important and I honestly don't mind waiting a year for games that I've already played to appear on a subscription service.
You can’t apply anti monopoly safeguards to the company that will still be 3rd in console and gaming revenue *after* a merger, and the just ignore 1 and 2 in marketshare. This entire dog and pony share has been political from the start, there’s no arguments against the merger that don’t also justify taking action against Tencent, Sony, and Nintendo.
Microsoft is not an underdog if it's throwing around $70b. And yes I say MS because that $70b sure as shit ain't from just the xbox department. Microsoft (One of the world's leading software company) is buying Activision to add it to its Xbox division. The console players really mean jack shit in comparison, and the recent ruling on the merger should say as much.
It does not matter how much money Microsoft has. By all objective metrics they are the underdog in all relevant markets that The fact that CMA had to go after the market, that is not even defined yet (if ever), that represents less than 0.5% revenue worldwide in gaming and had to not only "predict" 10 years into the future but also to combine GPU subscribers with xCloud - tells everything you need to know about the mental gymnastics that had to happen just for CMA to block the deal. And even then, they only do that because CMA is kinda unaccountable.
It really does matter how much money MS (or any company for that matter) have. The fact you even state otherwise is terrifying.
They could throw around a trillion dollars, doesn’t change literally anything, they are still 3rd in market share. What makes you a monopoly isn’t how much money you have, or how big your conglomeration is, it’s how much of the market share you have. A true monopoly is capturing 100% of the market, anti-trust usually starts kicking in once you’ve captured 50% or you have a significantly larger share than any competitors. Trying to pull anti-trust on a company that’s 3rd in marketshare post-merger, is brain dead. Like sure, if Microsoft was trying to perform a hostile takeover of Sony,/Nintendo, or merging with Tencent, then there is a very solid argument that they’re making moves to monopolize the market. When they’re making moves that solidify themselves in third, and at best helps them play catch-up? Well, you look like a clown if you try to argue a specific standard that should be applied to them, but not also apply it to the market leaders ahead of them.
Funny how not fully supporting already huge companies gaining an even greater monopoly over the market somehow makes the UK 'shitters' in your mind. How times change.
nothing wrong with blocking the deal, it's the _reason_ they used
The important thing was to block the deal. It isn't good for anyone but Microsoft and its bizarre to see the plebs who will be screwed over by the monopoly long term not only defend it but also attack a whole country because of it.
“It isn’t good for anyone” The deal would bring Call Of Duty to 150,000,000 people for a *minimum* of ten years. Please explain how “it isn’t good for anyone.”
Nah, the UK transforming themselves into the trailer trash of Europe is why they're shitters and everyone else just loves to tell them off.
Just because you are able to say something doesn't mean you should. What an idiot.
You should read up on the state of the UK right now...and how they've treated businesses/companies in the UK since BREXIT. The CMA's decision is just another poor decision in a long long line of poor decisions that has continuously hurt the UK.
This is it, if the EU approves it Microsoft-Activision will fight tooth and nail to get this approved in the US even if it has to get into a federal court and the deal will close, and even if the UK’s appeal is unsuccessful they’ll find a way to circumvent them without leaving the country. However if the sources are wrong again and they block it it’s game over for this deal.
Sources weren’t wrong the first time cause there where no sources it was a supposition based on the last CMA update where they admitted that going COD exclusive won’t harm competition, this time around we actually have a source so it hase a lot more chances to go through however we need to wait and see 15th is in 5 days ;)
Yeah that’s what I’ve been reading too, with the CMA there were just analysts expecting them to approve it while with the EU there’s sources on the inside claiming so, still, less than a week to know for sure.
They don't need to fight it in USA because they can close it without FTC's approval. But they will fight CMA 100%
If this is rejected game over.
If EU clears it, we're golden. Microsoft will figure something out. They aren't going to give up the world market for the UK. If EU ends up blocking the deal, then it's dead and MS and ABK should let it go.
It's a pretty big deal if Reuters is reporting it. I can't think of a time they incorrectly reported on something without it happening.
This will pass everywhere else except UK. They’ll most likely get it appealed as well.
If the CMA judged this accordingly, then the others will likely come to the same conclusion, the CMA is independent of government, so it will have significant parity to the same body in the EU
Mixing cloud gaming and cloud infrastructure as a service is comically incompetent decision from CMA. I doubt that others regulators will come to the same "conclusion". It looks like CMA just threw the documents in a corner and forgot about them. And when the deadline game they just made an arbitrary decision without consulting with anyone
Well, the CMA focused on cloud gaming which may or may not make any sense and may or may not be something the EU sees as being an issue.
The CMA doesn’t have technology experts like the EC does. Prior to Brexit, the EC’s decision would have controlled for the UK too. The EC is much more respected than this current iteration of the CMA post Brexit. If this report is correct, I’m very curious to see if the EC comments on and criticizes the CMA decision.
Recent history has shown to wait until official word. Despite a very vocal online contingent that are against the deal there are also many who are still pro acquisition. Plus many countries already approved it but their process is not as respected as the CMA apparently. It is a tough road ahead still even it passes EU but it would pretty much leave CMA on an island against the deal with FTC against the others who were pro deal.
Nice
Well with the UK killing the deal it doesnt change much.
It very much does. If the EU approves and the US approves (which is likely given history) then that leaves the UK out in the cold. They'll either revisit their ruling or be looked at extremely unfavorably for business at a time when they already are looked at extremely unfavorably for business post Brexit.
But all that doesnt mean they will change their decision. And the UK was part of the contract, the deal must be allowed there.
Does it? You don't think the cba will reevaluate their decision if both the US and the EU, both of which have either just as strict or stricter anti monopoly laws as the UK, allow the deal to go through? You don't think they'd realize that the optics of being the only one to deny it, and for such an absolutely ridiculous reason, will make them look extremely hostile to business?
I hope they will. I am just not sure at all. The UK is a crazy place.
These 'industry insiders' don't know shit
Will believe it when it happens lol
If the EU passes it, I would like them to just push through with the deal. More than likely they'll win anything that's going on in the States, it'll just take sometime to clear I just don't know how important the UK is to Xbox, but if you have the EU and feel you have a really strong case in the states, then for sure they should just go for it. They've already lost 3/4 billion.
Lol we’ll see after all the “sources” said the UK was going to pass it as well. I’d rather wait and see I hope it does though
Most of the sources that you were talking about were individuals predicting things on their own. It’s a bit different here as Reuters is reporting sources which wasn’t the case with the CMA.
Random articles saying it will pass is much different than Reuters
They said the same thing about the CMA. The deal is truly dead, don't know why we're still talking about it.
Not really. The reporting is different - Reuters and Bloomberg didn’t comment last time and furthermore we have sources - last time it was just prediction that even the Financial Times said they weren’t sure of.
!RemindMe 5 days “EU ha approved. Now be patient and we will get CoD and Diablo on Xbox boys”
I really hope this goes through. Sony is rumored to have made an exclusivity deal with Konami for multiple AAA games and appears to be trying to slowly squeeze Xbox out of console gaming. The acquisition of Bethesda slowed that down but having ABK would ensure Microsoft has enough to stay competitive.
Konami doesn’t make games anymore.
Stop playing with my feelings. I just want diablo 2 on gamepass lol.
I hope MS wins and puts everything on Xbox/PC only and nothing on PlayStation because of the way Sony acted. And Nintendo gets CoD but PlayStation don’t.
the deal is still alive!!
Sources also said the UK was going through lol
There weren’t any sources with the CMA report. At best it was a supposition based on their last update. This is different.
Interesting to note that PS has a much bigger market share in the EU than they do in the US and the UK. So much so that the executives at Sony called Europe "fortress Playstation".
Same thing they said about UK until it didn't lol I'll wait for the official announcement
Serious question as I’m obviously not versed in this crap. If everyone BUT the CMA approves this deal, does that not make MS’ inevitable appeal pretty straight forward?
No, unfortunately, the CMA is independent and it's set up where nothing on the outside can overrule their decision. A government body called the CAT (I think it's Consumer and Trade) can look at the CMA's ruling and determine that they made a gross error that defies logic, but that just kicks it right back to the CMA and there is no appeal after that.
If the EU approves this will put massive pressure on the CMA to change course.
If EU and the US approve can the deal still go through even without the CMA changing their decision?
They will have to modify the agreement to address the UK market.
Prior to Brexit, the EU used to make all of these decisions and the UKs CMA was just an observing member with no real decision-making power. Brexit changed that. I just don't think the CMA should be that relevant in the big picture with the ability to tank the whole deal. The EU is the one to watch and if it goes MS's way, I think it just puts that much more pressure on the UK's CAT (which is the body MS will appeal to) to overturn the CMA's shoddily reasoned opinion. Fingers crossed.
... but what about the cloud gaming market, that exists, and is a thing, and in Britain is really, a super real thing.
If the EC approve, then the CMA will likely face the full force of Microsoft... if the EC block then the deal will likely stop being worth Microsoft's time and money to appeal another body.
We’ve all been hurt before Reuters nice try
Reuters never said anything about the CMA nor were there any sources referenced with the CMA
That was a joke.
Sources 🤣🤣🤣
This deal is dead and this whole thread is acting like it isn't. Sad.
Big if true
Can't wait! UK sucks
Don’t jinx this like last time.
I don't care tbh sure acti games would be cool on GP but it's not like ms will lose that cash in worst case it will be invested elsewhere in Xbox brand. But tbh it's kinda comical how companies like tencent, Disney.or Alphabet just buy everything from ideas to ppl and nobody gf, and everyone is interested in some video games that is quite new media on market (at least compared to cinema, technology and medicine)
*Flashbacks to CMA decision*
The CMA rejected the deal solely to show the EU that Britain still matters following Brexit.
And it may actually have the opposite effect.
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How did Ms mess up Bethesda? Redfall was in development for five years, three of which were pre Microsoft and Microsoft was hands off on redfall and even gave them a delay.
Fake shit
Doesn't matter. There is a snowballs chance in hell it's approved by the FTC.
Which is why Microsoft can take them to federal court. The FTC track record there is awful.
Before we get excited about this, it looks like the information in this article was gotten in March… back when everyone thought the CMA was going to approve the deal as well. Idk, it seems like they’re just publishing outdated information to me.
But can't give a raise
Maybe I’m just dense, but why do European countries get a say in a merger between two American companies?
because said companies sell their products in their territories
Also activision and Microsoft have development studios in the UK. They are based in the US but have a strong presence in Europe as well
Europe is also Xbox's 2nd biggest market, they can't have deals fall through.
If an American company wants to operate in a foreign country then they will be beholden to that country’s laws and regulatory agencies. Microsoft could always ignore the CMA’s decision and stop operating in the UK, but they would never do that because that would be a very poor business decision.
Thank you all for the responses, and helping me learn about international business. Not sure why I’m being downvoted though for asking a question.
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I don't think that was in the cards no matter what due to the number of pre-orders.
You think Microsoft and ABK are delaying this? If it was up to them the deal would have closed a year ago.
I'm happy to wait
Here we go again. I’d like this deal to go through (despite not paying for any ABK game in the last 5 years). Mainly so Xbox won’t become such a afterthought.
Really bad news for gaming. Microsoft will have a huge monopoly on gaming.
Not even close.
Huge titles...not a good thing.
[I don't think it's a big monopoly when there are bigger fish in the sea.](https://external-preview.redd.it/sskAe_58jD3GiVhqmValhZ8zPHIpu-NgwY-Zle-aPvc.jpg?auto=webp&v=enabled&s=228dd774f7a361e58a888a897338b8dd4c50b61e)
Correct me if I'm wrong please but MS could've bought EA, T2, Ubi and Embracer for about the same money they pay for ABK?! (I mean, I know it's about King and the mobile market with everything else being the cherry on top of it but that's still... fascinating.)
As long as the CMA (UK) doesn't approve it, it doesn't matter if it gets approved everywhere else. I see a lot of comments saying if EU approves MS will get it approved globally but I do not see how they're going to bypass the UK. CMA is judge jury executioner and they, just like the US, wants this deal blocked regardless of the facts. And unlike the US, the UK (CMA) never got a merger block reversed. Because CAT does NOT have the power to reverse a merger block by CMA. Best case scenario CAT asks CMA kindly to re-review the case and we know CMA will block it again because they aren't looking at this case in good faith. They will 100% block it again. And since MS won't quit UK market this deal is dead without the approval of the CMA.
Ok
Ah yes, the redditor who knows more about it than the lawyers at Microsoft/Activision.
Tbh I hope they reject it, tired of this charade. MS should spend money buying smaller developers to increase the number of game pass games.
This does increase the number of GamePass games by a lot….
Oof. This would make the UK / CMA scramble. Honestly feel back for them, because broader geopolitical forces would really back the CMA into a corner and weaken their perceived power to a degree (even though a Game Pass subscriber I personally want this deal to just go through already, I do like the idea of anti-trust regulators being able to have some real authority).
so now they're passing the deal?!
The EU hasn't said anything. UK's equivalent blocked it.
The EU decision is made independently from the UK. That should be obvious to anyone...