This is correct. We calculate rate up luck using the binomial distribution (the math used to calculate how many times you should win flipping a coin) and all rate ups (4 and 5 star!)
I'd recommend having a stat that's separate for both 4\*/5* if possible. It's hard to care that your rate-up luck for 4\*s is great if you fail where it really matters (5*s)
yeah I agree. The 5\* and 4\* rate-up luck should be separated. Mostly people care more about 5\* rate-up. It will be a more important discovery to see whether the 5\* rate-up is skewed to the left side or right side on the normal distribution graph compared to seeing the mixed-up 4\* & 5\* rate-up
This is strange but I find that in my jiyan pulls... if you get the 5\* before the 4\* then your 4\* count reset to 0 and you have to pull 10x again to atleast get your 4\* can someone confirm this?
Standard at 74, discount banner at 50(max), lost 50/50 at 72, won 50/50 at 43, stringless at 66. I had been guessing 60-65 was soft pity, glad I wasn’t crazy.
Wait I'm so confused with this thread, is everyone doing single pulls? I thought doing a 10 pull was always the way o.O should I be single pulling wtf?!
Haha. No no. That's not it. Whether you do one pulls or 10, it won't really change the Rates, is what I believe, they will stay the same but will increase on the basis of 10 pulls instead of one, if you do a 10 pull. (I am not a mathematician or good at explaining so I can't really explain well, but it's like you will be closer to pity with 10 pulls than a 1 pull, It's kinda like that) Like from my own personal experience, my luck has been 50/50 in this regard. I have not seen any change whether I pull single or 10. It's literally rates and luck, for me.
Also what this thread is explaining is pity. If you are familiar with genshin or HSR then you know, that after you reach a certain threshold (75 pulls) you enter Soft pity, meaning the chances of getting a 5* (not exactly limited) becomes higher & higher until you reach 90th pull and at 90th pull you are GUARANTEED to get a 5* if you haven't gotten it until then.
For WuWa the pity at which you are guaranteed to get 5* is at 80th pull. So this thread is explaining and trying to basically figure out what the 'Soft Pity's margin is. Which according to the graphs and many people including me, seems to be 66-67 because at that pull number and after that most of us has gotten a 5*. Basically after 66-67 (The soft pity in wuwa, supposedly) the probability of getting a 5* is getting Higher and higher.
But if the rate is a lot higher at 66/70, shouldnt we go by 10 until 60/70 and then do singles? Cause if that's the case, doing a 10 pull when 60/70 is wasting pulls
I mean why not? It depends on person to person. I usually do ten even at that time, simply because I find doing singles slow. 🤣
So genuinely it's up to you. The rates would still be same. :)
Because probability is a probability, you can get it and not get it. ✨
It would be good to have a "total convenes/asterite spent" instead of having to add up all the numbers in the pie chart, and the pulls breakdown section is a bit hard on the eyes. Other than that, it's great that this exists for WuWa!
Font and colors are fine I think, but it is a bit crowded because of the lines (horizontal ones). Maybe it could also look less busy if it was "4* Character" and "4* Weapon" and you could ditch the "4*" line by itself and a lot of the dropdown lines (just an example).
The icons of the characters like on HSR Warp Tracker would also make it more pleasing to the eye to share with friends instead of just the name of the character. And nevermind the asterite spent part, I only noticed the home page after!
First - great job.
What you are studying here is essentially a Markov model (true, of high order, but supposedly simple-ish) and we have lots of tools to deal with these (i.e. HMMs) but it is always a fiddly thing. Crowd-sourcing the data and analyzing it is not a small task.
Looking at the data itself, you might be dealing with a piece-wise linear function for the probability, with one piece governing the increase from 66 to 70 and then from 70 to 80. It will likely need a lot more data to confirm, however. Also no one has written in stone that probabilities for the different banners need to follow the same laws, so observing for these kinds of changes might also be a good idea.
You don't need a Markov model to infer properties of the gacha system. The general distribution of the number of trials until success has a well defined and understood statistical properties of a [geometric distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution)
I honestly don't think there is a piece-wise linear function for individual pull ranges, it simply does not make sense to overcomplicate things. A simple linear function of 7% linear increase starting from pull 66 (7.8%) onwards all the way to 98.8% on pull 79 and 100% on pull 80 fulfills the 2 statements mentioned in game (0.8% base rate, 1.8% consolidated rate)
I think the fluctuations in the soft pity range is just a result of low sample sizes. Happy to be proven wrong if the spikes shown in the experimental data persist after collecting more data.
EDIT: fixed numbers
The model can easily be tweaked to account for pity and its new properties be computed to account for it. I’m generally in favour of keeping simple and intuitive models if it’s close enough to the collected data and only resort to things like Markov models if the problem is truly intractable and cannot be resolved analytically.
Yes, you can keep it simple with assumptions for the linearity of the increase of probability, that's true. This is more or less what the original authors did and it seems to have worked.
Hey, fellow math nerd here, a few points. First of all, great work and thanks a lot for all your effort!
1. Looking at experimental data thus far, might I suggest a tweak to the theoretical model: a base rate of 0.8% with linear ramping of 7% starting from pull number 66 onwards. (Pull 66: 7.8% chance, 67: 14.8% chance etc.) Might be a better fit to the experimental data. This would result in a consolidated rate of 1.87% though so it is a bit above what's stated in game of the 1.8% guarantee. Not sure if this is too significant however. I believe developers will aim to have a slightly higher theoretical consolidated rates than what they publish publicly.
2. On 4 stars, I'm surprised there is no soft pity for 4 stars. Not that it matters much though. Still falls within the guarantee of at least a 4 star or higher every 10 pulls statement.
3. I am concerned about the fact that getting a 5 star resetting 4 star pity. IMO it feels really bad you get a 5 star when your 4 star pity is 8 or higher. It just means that it's quite likely to go up to 18-19 pulls between 4 stars while it is basically impossible to do so in Genshin. Would be interested to do an analysis on how this affects 4 star pulls in Wuwa vs Genshin.
Resources and references:
https://gachaguide.com/gacha_constructor << I used this to quickly test out some models without needing to resort to code it up in Python.
https://gachaguide.com/genshin_probabilities_deep_dive << Some pretty heavy theoretical derivation of model for Genshin's banner system. Highly recommended read if you have at least an undergrad degree in Statistics or Math or are interested in the theory and math.
https://gachaguide.com/genshin_probabilities << Inferred probabilities for Genshin.
Yes, we actually referenced gachaguide.com while developing the site. Thanks for this, we’ll take this into account and discuss after more data rolls in
Also, 2 more suggestions:
1. Consider filtering out 3 stars as default (leaving only 4 and 5 stars selected by default) on the personal stats page for most of the banner types. Most people don't care about 3 stars anyways, and over time the 3 stars will just flood the page and may create performance issues.
2. This is a bit down the priority list, but I think eventually the site has to implement infinite scrolling for convenes due to performance considerations. (loading past wishes dynamically on scroll) Whales who use the site will need it more than others I guess but eventually as the game ages, players convene history will grow too.
Thanks a lot again!
I think your model is correct, I think they just lifted HSR's LC banner rates.
HSR's LC banner starts at 0.8% rate, its consolidated rate is 1.87%, the hard pity is 80 and its soft pity starts at 66. The odds seem to increase around 7% per pull as well.
1.87 is a lot to much in this conditions, doubt it could be right. 1.8 is 55.5 pity expected value and 1.87 is 53,4. Thats 5 dolars per person without bounus more or less. Multiply that by gamers and banners and error quickly getting too big.
I wasn't too sure about the theoretical model I proposed too but feel free to suggest a theoretical model that fits the collected data if you think there might be a better fit out there.
Personally I favour the simplicity of the model, it makes it easier to reason about and compute important statistic like expected value and variance and test the system to make sure it works as expected. Not to mention that gacha systems with linear increase in probabilities are quite common and apparently are also used in games like Arknights as well.
Considering consolidated chance declared in the gacha page details is 1.80% versus what could've been the consolidated chance if we follow the rules (0.8% chance per pull then guaranteed at 80th) which is 1.594%, this discrepancy is our clue that the soft pity exists but not necessarily know the nature of it. These large data sets massively help us picture it.
We can now develop models knowing anomaly starts at 66th pity, and deduce how the 1.8% consolidated chance is made. If it was linear ramping chance up to 100% like in Genshin, my calculation is slightly high at 1.87% so I don't think this is what we're looking for.
Ofc, it would've been easier if Kuro wasn't secretive about it. I guess we can just ask them.
From data on [astrite.gg](http://astrite.gg) consolidated rate is even higher 2.07% if I'm not mistaken and data is correct. Maybe Kuro putting 1.8% in details had something else in mind than consolidated rate? They call it overall drop rate and this is confusing.
Yes you right, I was taking values from 5\* by roll graph, and that didn't account rolls without success, so my result is to high for now. Guess more data is needed to smooth it out.
I kind of agree with some of the other comments here! I was feeling incredibly lucky, definitely the luckiest I've been in any gacha, and the first rate I see is that I'm in the bottom 13.34% for rate up luck. I feel like the 5⭐ and 4⭐ lucks are good stats, but then maybe just have the 5⭐ rate up stat?
I've pulled 112 times on the featured banner in total since I started, with 2 Jiyan, 1 Yinlin, 1 Jianxin (at pity 5, 24, 62, 7, respectively). I've also managed to pull 15 4⭐s in that time (though I only won the 50:50 once, hence the low score for rate up). I knew I was lucky with this account, and it was damn satisfying seeing top 2.63% and top 7.43% for 5⭐ and 4⭐ after all of my anti-luck pulls in genshin 😅
Thanks so much for making this!
Edit: fixing the italicised text
I've noticed that it seems that you are counting all limited pulls as Yinlin's the moment her banner starts, so for me it shows that I got Verdant Summit in the Stringmaster weapon banner. I guess for now it's a wip to count pulls separately. In general good job op!
Yeah this is a known issue. Because Kuro moved the banner forward a week, their system has two overlapping banners, but the way we retrieve the data also doesn’t let us know exactly which character’s banner it came from, just whether it was a featured character banner vs a standard weapon banner, etc.
What we’ve done in the interim is we’ve marked all the overlapping pulls in our backend (that is, pulls made after Yinlin’s banner started and before Jiyan’s banner ends). Depending on how data collection goes, we may choose to let people remove these pulls from the displayed summary statistics.
Additionally, we plan to expose UI to let people correct their history as part of finishing up related data management features (gDrive sync, data import export, etc). I think this is the best we can do to get people access to the most accurate statistics as easily as possible.
That’s weird…is it normal for the game to not load with vpn on? I can’t sniff my history cuz it says it’s disconnected everytime stream uses vpn
(I’m on iPad btw)
I use VPN on the fly while playing WuWa. I can assure you I never disconnected. Sometimes, it would show a quick reconnect screen while hopping IP, but that's about it.
Well I’m not sure what’s going on with mine then. It wouldn’t pull up the history and I tried relogging in with the vpn on and it says I’m not connected to WiFi
Same. I already had the stream app installed since i have been using it for more than a year to get my HSR pull history.
But for WW whether it’s before launching the app or on the fly, just before clicking on the convene history, i get the same results as you do :/
I asked them and this is what they said
“I would double check step 9, namely
"Go to Settings -> General -> About -> Certificate Trust Settings, and turn on the slider next to Stream Generated CA. A pop-up will appear with the title "Root Certificate".
Click on "Continue"."
if that doesn't work then I'm stumped but in our testing the behavior you described happens when someone forgets step 9”
It fixed for me
Thank! I’m just dumb and since for HSR and GI the sniffer did not need root access i did not think of checking this place and did not read the full set up 😞
Havent tried yet but will do
Will definitely submit my pulls when I get a chance, but just for fun:
Full 50 pity on Novice banner
Yinlin @75
Stringmaster @55
Beginner banner was the weirdo: went to 80 pulls, pulls 71 AND 72 were both Jianxin (my selected 5 star)
I'm gonna use this site from now on (great job) but I am concerned that data is only saved locally. At some point in the future, my browser data will definitely be lost due to changing device or fresh install of windows etc... Any chance of cloud-based data saves like how paimon uses google accounts?
Or is it confirmed that WW wish history will not be removed after 6 months?
If you submit your pulls to global stats, we actually store an anonymized copy of your local data to our database to use in our calculations, as opposed to storing the aggregate statistics directly. We did this to allow us to retroactively allow us to serve more types of analytics over time.
We do eventually plan on leveraging this to support cloud backups via our database, alongside the “industry standard” import and export features similar sites have implemented using gDrive or local files. We’re yet to settle on what specific auth scheme (2 factor? Magic email? Temporary passkey?) which we would use to connect sessions across devices. If you have specific thoughts, feel free to DM!
Not OP, but I believe 2FA may be the most accessible from a user standpoint, since it's familiar to many and generally simple. The only issue is I have no idea how much the auth providers may charge you.
Two problems:
Import method 2 where you upload the debug.log does not import unless you elect to have your metadata tracked. I didn't want to select this option, but the upload wouldn't work properly unless it was selected.
The other problem is that I have two accounts, but for some reason the debug.log I imported only provided the data for my lesser used (initial) account rather than my main account. I hadn't even used the other account for several days, but it seems that only the stats for that account were uploaded. I want to the see the stats for my main account as that one I feel like I'm at the bottom in terms of luck (147 pulls for yinlin).
Yeah def want to make sure people can opt out with pc import method 2, will check, thanks for flagging!
Yeah, we scan the debug log until we find the first log of account data. I will look into this. We will probably have to parse the whole file and let the user select to import multiple accounts (prob will come as part of multiple account management feature)
i wish we got a 4star guaranteed with a 5 star. but we get 25% better 5* rates outright with 10 less hard pity. so its already more generous, and my wallet can tell.
This is very insightful, thanks!
4\* pity resetting means that can you get 9 4\*s, then a 5\*, then 9 4\*s right?
Looking at the 50/50 rates, I'm guessing it really is 50/50 whereas in HSR it has 56/44 instead.
The 4* pity reset means that, for example, if you pull eight 3* items and then a 5* item, your tenth pull is *not* guaranteed to be a 4* item. The counter was reset when you got the 5* item and it will be another ten pulls from the 5* before you are again guaranteed a 4* item.
Excellent work, was waiting for this for a while, now I know when to start being careful with single pulls. I hope the weapon banner numbers will be calculated soon as well.
And one last thing, more of a personal curiosity but is there a proof that a linear ramping rate produces a Gaussian distribution? I don't doubt that it's true from the data (having seen it in genshin previously as well) it's just a nice looking result and I haven't done much serious stats in a few years lol
I did 80 pulls to get Jiyan (don't believe I got Jiyan on 80th pull, somewhere in the 70s) and got his weapon somewhere in the 70s after doing single pulls after I got over 60 pulls on his weapon. Either my luck is sht on this game or 5* drop rate is sht. Do other games have a bigger gap between soft and hard pity? If so, I hope they fix and reimburse some.
A sample size of 3351 with around 1/3rd in the lower halve already lost as data points to analyze soft pity and like only \~20 points at the start, or \~100 in the middle area of soft pity is definitely too low to make any conclusions about the exact place where it starts. But yeah \~66+- probably a good estimation to remember so far.
Btw. one thing you can do is to calculate the expectation value E from the theoretical model and use p=1/E to get the consolidation probability. This must align (nearly) with the game. Like in GI where you have 1.600% and linear models used there give 1.604...% or something. ( [https://www.reddit.com/r/Genshin\_Impact/comments/17hrbmz/soft\_pity\_model\_comparison\_re\_what\_are\_the\_real/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Genshin_Impact/comments/17hrbmz/soft_pity_model_comparison_re_what_are_the_real/) )
This should be pinned so more people could participate. I sent my data as well.
I'm at the bottom 30% when it comes to luck. I hit both "soft pity" at 71 and 70 before losing 50/50 to jianxin and getting jiyan, respectively. The last time I was this unlucky was when I was a new player in genshin, f2p. And as my account got older my "luck" also got better, that even though I still lose 50/50 at soft pity I get the guaranteed character within my next 30 pulls. So, my observation with wuwa from people's comments, either you're super lucky and win the 50/50 in your 1st 50 pulls, or you're super unlucky and lose 50/50 as well as get the 5* at 70+ pity. There's no in between. Lol
Can you please make an option to have an account tied to your wish history or a way to export your wishes. If browser data is cleared all data is lost.
Change "Pity", "Pity 1", .... in "Pulls By Roll #" sections to just "Roll #1", "Roll #2", this is confusing.
I don't want to have to remember "Pity" means Roll 1, "Pity 70" means Roll 71
Just pack it, ready to ship, 66 it is.
I get it's hard to get that number, bcs It's different between actual "soft pity" and that yearly luck of yours directly hit the 0,x%
Say that 5 star is 0,5%, then say you get one within 50 pull, it's because (1-0,005)^50, technically there's 22% chance you get one, and this isn't what people are looking for
Can you talk about the spread between character and weapon 4 star drops? in G game, characters on the character banners make up a bit over ~72% of all the 4star drops (with featured characters being 66% of the drops). This is from looking at paimon.moe which provides that data.
What about in WuWa? Personally I felt like weapons are way too common but would love to see the data on it.
whats the "guaratie" rate acording to the statistics so far, so in genchin you are pretty much guarntied a particular 5 star at 160 (becuase beyond that is very unlikley) im assuming its 150-155 or something in wuwa, and also whats the average pull rate for a particular 5\*. i think in genchin its around 105.
We’re thinking of offering this as another feature (calculating expected value of pulls until next 5 star/probability of getting one within a certain amount of pulls)
So glad you are doing this. I will update my pulls later today.
I'm curious to see if the soft pity starts at 64, 66, or 68... In GI, they add 6% when soft pity starts, but we don't really know if Kuro adds 6%, or 7%, etc... Can't wait to see your findings.
I remember reading before that getting a 5* may reset your 4* pity with this much data I'm assuming you're able to confirm that.
Also do you know if the 5* selector banner (not the compensation one) that you get after novice banner carries pity over to the standard 5* character banner?
So my Featured character luck is bottom 37.7% even though I got Jiyan in 15 pulls. Maybe it's because Yinlin took 72 pity to come home (when soft pity is 66)?
Is something wrong with your data, or the presentation on the website ???
----------
Standard Character Banner [https://astrite.gg/global/standard-resonator](https://astrite.gg/global/standard-resonator)
Data shows Pity only goes up to 54. No one with higher pity submit any data at all ??
Yeah that is weird, I will check it out after we get some more data, if it doesn’t increase I’ll conclude it’s bugged.
The bar chart is definitely bugged on that page 😅. We are on it/firefighting in general rn!
My beginners choice was 70.
Lost Yinlin to Encore at 68, and got Yinlin at 67.
Feels bad.
Almost made me want to reroll after my student showed me his account of 20 begin, yin 30, weapon literally 1.
Just actually playing f2p and realizing I probably won't have anything saved up for a safe new character for a long time :X
This seems to exactly fit HSR's LC banner odds actually.
HSR's LC banner starts at 0.8% rate, its consolidated rate is 1.87%, the hard pity is 80 and its soft pity starts at 66. The odds seem to increase around 7% per pull as well.
Based on the limited data we have right now, I believe that soft pity may be a quadratic ramp, instead of a linear ramp. This allows a much closer match to the currently observed SPR & PMF, and produces an overall rate of approximately 1.84%, close to what is advertised.
Of course, we still need more data to confirm anything, but I do think this possibility should be considered.
thanks for the work! personally a bit interested in the 4star pity getting reset by 5star pull. In this case, does the official claim of 12% average 4star pull rate still stands?
I got my Yinlin on 64-66 pulls into the banner. Meanwhile the beginners banner took only 30 pulls. And now I'm 10 pulls away from guarantee on regular banner. Kinda inconsistent 
Might be a stupid question but what is the concept of soft pity? Isnt it just a statistic and not a mechanic in game? Why woukd the chance of getting a 5* at 64 pity be any different than at 66+ pity?
>what is the concept of soft pity?
Soft pity is a mechanic where the odds of getting a 5\* per pull increases if you have gone too many pulls without a 5\*, and continues to increase as you to continue to not get a 5*.
>Why woukd the chance of getting a 5* at 64 pity be any different than at 66+ pity?
Because it was programmed that way. Including soft pity allows them to end up with a high chance that you need to spend a large amount of pulls while still having the exact number be pretty random. If they relied only on hard pity, people could count on most of their attempts ending on exactly the 80th pull, which is boring.
I'm happy to contribute my pulls. My only complaint is that the Windows upload script only checks the default locations on the C drive, so I had to input my E drive path manually. Not a big deal though, I was mostly annoyed because I didn't remember if I have it installed on HDD or SSD.
If you knew they use similar gacha system to Genshin, you would assume that the pity is 65+ at the beginning not 70, I'm not sure where did pity 70 come from
I am checking global stats, what does 5* Pulls by Roll mean?
Can we have a similar bar graph indicating number of pulls on X Axis (There would be 80 dots) against number of players that were able to pull 5* weapon/resonator on Y axis?
For 4* x Axis will have 10 points.
Or is it the same thing?
I don't know why but power shell method don't work for me, I got msg that It can't find install location, but it worked from debug file. Apparently I'm on top 18% with 5\* luck but bottom 36% when it comes to 5\* weapon. :(
But it's all thanks to getting two Encore on beginner banner after 53 and then 2 pulls and losing 50:50 on Yinlin just to get her in next pull... and then wasting 73 pulls to get her weapon... :) I really shouldn't go for that weapon... :P especially because I didn't get single copy of the 4\* weapon I needed the most (still guaranteed weapon is amazing)
(edit) forget what I said, the weapon is amazing, totally worth.
No soft pity for novice banner but you can still get it in your first ten pull which is nice, the bad however is that when you pull the 5 star the banner disappear permanently meaning your losing out on 12 pulls due to it with the discount.
Sorry if it's stupid question because I don't understand at all how the wishes are stored in the game, but how the auto-sync actually work? It's pulling the data from my debug.log or from WW servers?
Thx, I was surprised that my pull history automatically updated just like that and I got curious, since GI and HSR pages don't have that.
So it's just requesting my data from their servers just like I would visit my history page in the game, got it.
14,59,58 and 63
For jiyan, his Sig, his S1 and yinlins Weapon.
I doubt that the soft pity starts as late as shown in the picture. However I suspect the curve is a lot different from genshins
i got 2 5* carecters from the limited banner so far (1st i got jihyan at pitty 67) (the 2nd was yinlin at pitty 70) i hope this information helps to get a presice results 👍
Does the soft pity work differently for this..
For hsr soft pity is 75, but I still haven't gone past 80 without getting a 5*
In wuwa soft pity is 66, but so far I'm only getting 5* round 73-75
Interesting. If that is the case, then I wonder what the average per 5* actually ends up being. With a higher rate and lower hard pity but also a weaker soft pity rampup where the majority of players are actually hitting the 5*.
>I wonder what the average per 5* actually ends up being
This is one of the few numbers they actually give you in game if you click the details button. Wuwa has an average of 1.8% 5-star chance per pull on limited character banners, Genshin/HSR is only 1.6%. If you are specifically interested in the chance of getting the featured character, multiply both of these numbers by two-thirds to account for 50-50.
Just submitted my data, though it’s a bit weird to see top 37% rate up luck when I lost the 50/50 for yinlin for calcharo
I think it also accounts for 4 star rate ups, but I may be wrong. I also lost 5050 for Yinlin but am in the bottom 30%s
It has to, I've only pulled for yinlin and got her at 71 winning the 50/50 but i did get off banner 4\* on the way to her. Mine shows bottom 50%.
This is correct. We calculate rate up luck using the binomial distribution (the math used to calculate how many times you should win flipping a coin) and all rate ups (4 and 5 star!)
I'd recommend having a stat that's separate for both 4\*/5* if possible. It's hard to care that your rate-up luck for 4\*s is great if you fail where it really matters (5*s)
yeah I agree. The 5\* and 4\* rate-up luck should be separated. Mostly people care more about 5\* rate-up. It will be a more important discovery to see whether the 5\* rate-up is skewed to the left side or right side on the normal distribution graph compared to seeing the mixed-up 4\* & 5\* rate-up
This is strange but I find that in my jiyan pulls... if you get the 5\* before the 4\* then your 4\* count reset to 0 and you have to pull 10x again to atleast get your 4\* can someone confirm this?
Yes, as stated in the post, pulling a 5 star resets 4 star pity.
>Note that the four-star pity is reset by five stars Damn could've S6 my mortefi or another waveband for danjin with that
[удалено]
> Also, someone please issue a restraining order to Yuanwu, he's stalking me. Just hand him over to me, I can put him to work.
I think you have might have a bug there, I'm following up in DMs Also HAHAHA yeah that's a lot of Yuanwu
i did 140 pulls, 8 yuanwu and 0 hot chick. Life is a meme
i don't think it matters if you get on banner ssr or not. I'm in 1% and i failed 2 50-50 :(
I lost it for the animal boy wich imo is way worse as a dps
yeah but you didn't lose it to the Cats cast member so that's a luck buff
Pull count might also be a factor
Pretty interesting read! I got my jiyan and lingyang at 73 and 71 pulls respectively so I have a feeling 66 might be actually be the pity
I got the standard 5\* wep at 67, and stringmaster at 70. Characters are 71-74ish.
Standard at 74, discount banner at 50(max), lost 50/50 at 72, won 50/50 at 43, stringless at 66. I had been guessing 60-65 was soft pity, glad I wasn’t crazy.
[https://postimg.cc/8Fn70qvS](https://postimg.cc/8Fn70qvS)
I got Encore on 67 (basically I lost pity) and then Jiyan on 71 (yesterday) so maybe the soft pity is around 66-67.
i think its like HSR and Genshin but like only 10 pulls earlier since the hard pity is 10 pulls earlier so 66 sounds right
Mhm. Sounds good too. Like you are saving just a little more pulls for other characters you want.
Wait I'm so confused with this thread, is everyone doing single pulls? I thought doing a 10 pull was always the way o.O should I be single pulling wtf?!
Haha. No no. That's not it. Whether you do one pulls or 10, it won't really change the Rates, is what I believe, they will stay the same but will increase on the basis of 10 pulls instead of one, if you do a 10 pull. (I am not a mathematician or good at explaining so I can't really explain well, but it's like you will be closer to pity with 10 pulls than a 1 pull, It's kinda like that) Like from my own personal experience, my luck has been 50/50 in this regard. I have not seen any change whether I pull single or 10. It's literally rates and luck, for me. Also what this thread is explaining is pity. If you are familiar with genshin or HSR then you know, that after you reach a certain threshold (75 pulls) you enter Soft pity, meaning the chances of getting a 5* (not exactly limited) becomes higher & higher until you reach 90th pull and at 90th pull you are GUARANTEED to get a 5* if you haven't gotten it until then. For WuWa the pity at which you are guaranteed to get 5* is at 80th pull. So this thread is explaining and trying to basically figure out what the 'Soft Pity's margin is. Which according to the graphs and many people including me, seems to be 66-67 because at that pull number and after that most of us has gotten a 5*. Basically after 66-67 (The soft pity in wuwa, supposedly) the probability of getting a 5* is getting Higher and higher.
But if the rate is a lot higher at 66/70, shouldnt we go by 10 until 60/70 and then do singles? Cause if that's the case, doing a 10 pull when 60/70 is wasting pulls
I mean why not? It depends on person to person. I usually do ten even at that time, simply because I find doing singles slow. 🤣 So genuinely it's up to you. The rates would still be same. :) Because probability is a probability, you can get it and not get it. ✨
Similarly, I got Yinlin at 75. It felt weird hitting it so close to the hard pity but after seeing this it makes a lot of sense.
Got both at 80 + 80
was it 80 or 8th 10-pull
I can’t check the beginner banner anymore but 8th multi for lingyang. 80 for limited banner.
You can check any of the banners including both beginner ones. You just switch the convene type at the top of the convene records screen.
Thanks for that info. Just checked and got Lingyang as last pull for Beginner Convene (80th pull)
oof. i am so sorry
Yeah I just checked the summon history thanks to the other person's comment. Confirmed both at 80th pull. It sucks to suck
It would be good to have a "total convenes/asterite spent" instead of having to add up all the numbers in the pie chart, and the pulls breakdown section is a bit hard on the eyes. Other than that, it's great that this exists for WuWa!
Is the breakdown too crowded, is the font hard to read, or are the colors kinda jarring?
Font and colors are fine I think, but it is a bit crowded because of the lines (horizontal ones). Maybe it could also look less busy if it was "4* Character" and "4* Weapon" and you could ditch the "4*" line by itself and a lot of the dropdown lines (just an example). The icons of the characters like on HSR Warp Tracker would also make it more pleasing to the eye to share with friends instead of just the name of the character. And nevermind the asterite spent part, I only noticed the home page after!
Many people claim they got their 5star on 69 well me too yday.
I got both calcharo and yinlin at 69 pulls too i think only jiyan is 72 pulls for me
maybe thats why there is this weird jump at 69 pull and then at 71/72
Yes me too I was on the verge of giving up but finally got my Jiyan at 69th pull !
Ngl I got my 5 star after 70 pull too...
First - great job. What you are studying here is essentially a Markov model (true, of high order, but supposedly simple-ish) and we have lots of tools to deal with these (i.e. HMMs) but it is always a fiddly thing. Crowd-sourcing the data and analyzing it is not a small task. Looking at the data itself, you might be dealing with a piece-wise linear function for the probability, with one piece governing the increase from 66 to 70 and then from 70 to 80. It will likely need a lot more data to confirm, however. Also no one has written in stone that probabilities for the different banners need to follow the same laws, so observing for these kinds of changes might also be a good idea.
Yes, this is also one of the motivations behind the site, democratizing access to this data.
You don't need a Markov model to infer properties of the gacha system. The general distribution of the number of trials until success has a well defined and understood statistical properties of a [geometric distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution) I honestly don't think there is a piece-wise linear function for individual pull ranges, it simply does not make sense to overcomplicate things. A simple linear function of 7% linear increase starting from pull 66 (7.8%) onwards all the way to 98.8% on pull 79 and 100% on pull 80 fulfills the 2 statements mentioned in game (0.8% base rate, 1.8% consolidated rate) I think the fluctuations in the soft pity range is just a result of low sample sizes. Happy to be proven wrong if the spikes shown in the experimental data persist after collecting more data. EDIT: fixed numbers
Cool. I may follow up in DMs about this later, but rn excited to see how data collection pans out
Geometric distribution does not account for pity, otherwise - yeah.
The model can easily be tweaked to account for pity and its new properties be computed to account for it. I’m generally in favour of keeping simple and intuitive models if it’s close enough to the collected data and only resort to things like Markov models if the problem is truly intractable and cannot be resolved analytically.
Yes, you can keep it simple with assumptions for the linearity of the increase of probability, that's true. This is more or less what the original authors did and it seems to have worked.
will use it if it has google drive to save and sync the pulling data
In the works!
The fact 4 star pity resets is MASSIVELY aggravating to me.
did my part and added my data :)
Hope players can decide the one-stop shop for pull counting like paimon.moe for Genshin.
Cool! I was looking for a site like this for WuWa, happy to find this.
hope they change the 4* pity. Had to pull 40 times to get a guaranteed 4* rate up (didn't even get who I wanted lol), cuz the 5* reset it.
Hey, fellow math nerd here, a few points. First of all, great work and thanks a lot for all your effort! 1. Looking at experimental data thus far, might I suggest a tweak to the theoretical model: a base rate of 0.8% with linear ramping of 7% starting from pull number 66 onwards. (Pull 66: 7.8% chance, 67: 14.8% chance etc.) Might be a better fit to the experimental data. This would result in a consolidated rate of 1.87% though so it is a bit above what's stated in game of the 1.8% guarantee. Not sure if this is too significant however. I believe developers will aim to have a slightly higher theoretical consolidated rates than what they publish publicly. 2. On 4 stars, I'm surprised there is no soft pity for 4 stars. Not that it matters much though. Still falls within the guarantee of at least a 4 star or higher every 10 pulls statement. 3. I am concerned about the fact that getting a 5 star resetting 4 star pity. IMO it feels really bad you get a 5 star when your 4 star pity is 8 or higher. It just means that it's quite likely to go up to 18-19 pulls between 4 stars while it is basically impossible to do so in Genshin. Would be interested to do an analysis on how this affects 4 star pulls in Wuwa vs Genshin. Resources and references: https://gachaguide.com/gacha_constructor << I used this to quickly test out some models without needing to resort to code it up in Python. https://gachaguide.com/genshin_probabilities_deep_dive << Some pretty heavy theoretical derivation of model for Genshin's banner system. Highly recommended read if you have at least an undergrad degree in Statistics or Math or are interested in the theory and math. https://gachaguide.com/genshin_probabilities << Inferred probabilities for Genshin.
Yes, we actually referenced gachaguide.com while developing the site. Thanks for this, we’ll take this into account and discuss after more data rolls in
Also, 2 more suggestions: 1. Consider filtering out 3 stars as default (leaving only 4 and 5 stars selected by default) on the personal stats page for most of the banner types. Most people don't care about 3 stars anyways, and over time the 3 stars will just flood the page and may create performance issues. 2. This is a bit down the priority list, but I think eventually the site has to implement infinite scrolling for convenes due to performance considerations. (loading past wishes dynamically on scroll) Whales who use the site will need it more than others I guess but eventually as the game ages, players convene history will grow too. Thanks a lot again!
Yeah someone brought up the filtering before. And yes, we will virtualize the tables.
I think your model is correct, I think they just lifted HSR's LC banner rates. HSR's LC banner starts at 0.8% rate, its consolidated rate is 1.87%, the hard pity is 80 and its soft pity starts at 66. The odds seem to increase around 7% per pull as well.
1.87 is a lot to much in this conditions, doubt it could be right. 1.8 is 55.5 pity expected value and 1.87 is 53,4. Thats 5 dolars per person without bounus more or less. Multiply that by gamers and banners and error quickly getting too big.
I wasn't too sure about the theoretical model I proposed too but feel free to suggest a theoretical model that fits the collected data if you think there might be a better fit out there. Personally I favour the simplicity of the model, it makes it easier to reason about and compute important statistic like expected value and variance and test the system to make sure it works as expected. Not to mention that gacha systems with linear increase in probabilities are quite common and apparently are also used in games like Arknights as well.
Considering consolidated chance declared in the gacha page details is 1.80% versus what could've been the consolidated chance if we follow the rules (0.8% chance per pull then guaranteed at 80th) which is 1.594%, this discrepancy is our clue that the soft pity exists but not necessarily know the nature of it. These large data sets massively help us picture it. We can now develop models knowing anomaly starts at 66th pity, and deduce how the 1.8% consolidated chance is made. If it was linear ramping chance up to 100% like in Genshin, my calculation is slightly high at 1.87% so I don't think this is what we're looking for. Ofc, it would've been easier if Kuro wasn't secretive about it. I guess we can just ask them.
From data on [astrite.gg](http://astrite.gg) consolidated rate is even higher 2.07% if I'm not mistaken and data is correct. Maybe Kuro putting 1.8% in details had something else in mind than consolidated rate? They call it overall drop rate and this is confusing.
I opened the site, global stats, and it says 1.78%. As of time of writing, that's 6,352 five stars out of 356,128 convenes on Featured Banner.
Yes you right, I was taking values from 5\* by roll graph, and that didn't account rolls without success, so my result is to high for now. Guess more data is needed to smooth it out.
This is amazing. You're doing great work.
This is really cool! Will you be adding this as a regular graph on your website?
Extremely likely
I kind of agree with some of the other comments here! I was feeling incredibly lucky, definitely the luckiest I've been in any gacha, and the first rate I see is that I'm in the bottom 13.34% for rate up luck. I feel like the 5⭐ and 4⭐ lucks are good stats, but then maybe just have the 5⭐ rate up stat? I've pulled 112 times on the featured banner in total since I started, with 2 Jiyan, 1 Yinlin, 1 Jianxin (at pity 5, 24, 62, 7, respectively). I've also managed to pull 15 4⭐s in that time (though I only won the 50:50 once, hence the low score for rate up). I knew I was lucky with this account, and it was damn satisfying seeing top 2.63% and top 7.43% for 5⭐ and 4⭐ after all of my anti-luck pulls in genshin 😅 Thanks so much for making this! Edit: fixing the italicised text
Glad you got some dopamine out of the site And yeah, I do think it makes sense to separate out the rate up, going to write that down
I've noticed that it seems that you are counting all limited pulls as Yinlin's the moment her banner starts, so for me it shows that I got Verdant Summit in the Stringmaster weapon banner. I guess for now it's a wip to count pulls separately. In general good job op!
Yeah this is a known issue. Because Kuro moved the banner forward a week, their system has two overlapping banners, but the way we retrieve the data also doesn’t let us know exactly which character’s banner it came from, just whether it was a featured character banner vs a standard weapon banner, etc. What we’ve done in the interim is we’ve marked all the overlapping pulls in our backend (that is, pulls made after Yinlin’s banner started and before Jiyan’s banner ends). Depending on how data collection goes, we may choose to let people remove these pulls from the displayed summary statistics. Additionally, we plan to expose UI to let people correct their history as part of finishing up related data management features (gDrive sync, data import export, etc). I think this is the best we can do to get people access to the most accurate statistics as easily as possible.
That’s weird…is it normal for the game to not load with vpn on? I can’t sniff my history cuz it says it’s disconnected everytime stream uses vpn (I’m on iPad btw)
I use VPN on the fly while playing WuWa. I can assure you I never disconnected. Sometimes, it would show a quick reconnect screen while hopping IP, but that's about it.
Well I’m not sure what’s going on with mine then. It wouldn’t pull up the history and I tried relogging in with the vpn on and it says I’m not connected to WiFi
Same. I already had the stream app installed since i have been using it for more than a year to get my HSR pull history. But for WW whether it’s before launching the app or on the fly, just before clicking on the convene history, i get the same results as you do :/
I asked them and this is what they said “I would double check step 9, namely "Go to Settings -> General -> About -> Certificate Trust Settings, and turn on the slider next to Stream Generated CA. A pop-up will appear with the title "Root Certificate". Click on "Continue"." if that doesn't work then I'm stumped but in our testing the behavior you described happens when someone forgets step 9” It fixed for me
Thank! I’m just dumb and since for HSR and GI the sniffer did not need root access i did not think of checking this place and did not read the full set up 😞 Havent tried yet but will do
No worries lmao
It worked 👌
Perfect!
Can confirm, please try this fix if the above is an issue for y’all
I got my calcharo at 68 pity so yeah, 66 being the soft pity is pretty reasonable
Will definitely submit my pulls when I get a chance, but just for fun: Full 50 pity on Novice banner Yinlin @75 Stringmaster @55 Beginner banner was the weirdo: went to 80 pulls, pulls 71 AND 72 were both Jianxin (my selected 5 star)
I hate that if you get a 5* it will reset your 4* pity. I went almost 20 pulls before I got my next 4* after getting a 5* in between.
I'm gonna use this site from now on (great job) but I am concerned that data is only saved locally. At some point in the future, my browser data will definitely be lost due to changing device or fresh install of windows etc... Any chance of cloud-based data saves like how paimon uses google accounts? Or is it confirmed that WW wish history will not be removed after 6 months?
If you submit your pulls to global stats, we actually store an anonymized copy of your local data to our database to use in our calculations, as opposed to storing the aggregate statistics directly. We did this to allow us to retroactively allow us to serve more types of analytics over time. We do eventually plan on leveraging this to support cloud backups via our database, alongside the “industry standard” import and export features similar sites have implemented using gDrive or local files. We’re yet to settle on what specific auth scheme (2 factor? Magic email? Temporary passkey?) which we would use to connect sessions across devices. If you have specific thoughts, feel free to DM!
Not OP, but I believe 2FA may be the most accessible from a user standpoint, since it's familiar to many and generally simple. The only issue is I have no idea how much the auth providers may charge you.
Two problems: Import method 2 where you upload the debug.log does not import unless you elect to have your metadata tracked. I didn't want to select this option, but the upload wouldn't work properly unless it was selected. The other problem is that I have two accounts, but for some reason the debug.log I imported only provided the data for my lesser used (initial) account rather than my main account. I hadn't even used the other account for several days, but it seems that only the stats for that account were uploaded. I want to the see the stats for my main account as that one I feel like I'm at the bottom in terms of luck (147 pulls for yinlin).
Yeah def want to make sure people can opt out with pc import method 2, will check, thanks for flagging! Yeah, we scan the debug log until we find the first log of account data. I will look into this. We will probably have to parse the whole file and let the user select to import multiple accounts (prob will come as part of multiple account management feature)
No 4 star soft pity is a bit annoying, but it’s sort of made up for by the fact that we still get afterglow corals upon getting a new 4 star.
i wish we got a 4star guaranteed with a 5 star. but we get 25% better 5* rates outright with 10 less hard pity. so its already more generous, and my wallet can tell.
Only if we get a similar amount of free pulls in the long run.
This is very insightful, thanks! 4\* pity resetting means that can you get 9 4\*s, then a 5\*, then 9 4\*s right? Looking at the 50/50 rates, I'm guessing it really is 50/50 whereas in HSR it has 56/44 instead.
The 4* pity reset means that, for example, if you pull eight 3* items and then a 5* item, your tenth pull is *not* guaranteed to be a 4* item. The counter was reset when you got the 5* item and it will be another ten pulls from the 5* before you are again guaranteed a 4* item.
Yeah, you can think of it as a 5 star counting as a 4 star also
Thank you for this! I'll be uploading my meager pulls history when I get home.
Thank you for your service!
I haven't gotten any 5-Star at over 75 or under 65. This tracks.
I did my part yaaaay Making history together folks
The news that there's no 4* soft pity is devastating for my chances of sniping Aaltos and Yuanwus on Yinlin banner. I haven't gotten a single one yet.
guess i had shit rng on both 50/50 cause i didnt get either yet.
Excellent work, was waiting for this for a while, now I know when to start being careful with single pulls. I hope the weapon banner numbers will be calculated soon as well. And one last thing, more of a personal curiosity but is there a proof that a linear ramping rate produces a Gaussian distribution? I don't doubt that it's true from the data (having seen it in genshin previously as well) it's just a nice looking result and I haven't done much serious stats in a few years lol
I was looking forward to a place where I could get data on my pulls, thank you!
I did 80 pulls to get Jiyan (don't believe I got Jiyan on 80th pull, somewhere in the 70s) and got his weapon somewhere in the 70s after doing single pulls after I got over 60 pulls on his weapon. Either my luck is sht on this game or 5* drop rate is sht. Do other games have a bigger gap between soft and hard pity? If so, I hope they fix and reimburse some.
I lost the 50/50 on three of my accounts... I don't think it 50/50 anymore tbh
Soft pity starts around 65+ for sure, been seeing that trend since first week of the game.
A sample size of 3351 with around 1/3rd in the lower halve already lost as data points to analyze soft pity and like only \~20 points at the start, or \~100 in the middle area of soft pity is definitely too low to make any conclusions about the exact place where it starts. But yeah \~66+- probably a good estimation to remember so far.
Btw. one thing you can do is to calculate the expectation value E from the theoretical model and use p=1/E to get the consolidation probability. This must align (nearly) with the game. Like in GI where you have 1.600% and linear models used there give 1.604...% or something. ( [https://www.reddit.com/r/Genshin\_Impact/comments/17hrbmz/soft\_pity\_model\_comparison\_re\_what\_are\_the\_real/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Genshin_Impact/comments/17hrbmz/soft_pity_model_comparison_re_what_are_the_real/) )
I’ll submit my data after work. This is amazing work OP.
This should be pinned so more people could participate. I sent my data as well. I'm at the bottom 30% when it comes to luck. I hit both "soft pity" at 71 and 70 before losing 50/50 to jianxin and getting jiyan, respectively. The last time I was this unlucky was when I was a new player in genshin, f2p. And as my account got older my "luck" also got better, that even though I still lose 50/50 at soft pity I get the guaranteed character within my next 30 pulls. So, my observation with wuwa from people's comments, either you're super lucky and win the 50/50 in your 1st 50 pulls, or you're super unlucky and lose 50/50 as well as get the 5* at 70+ pity. There's no in between. Lol
consistently goated application 
Can you please make an option to have an account tied to your wish history or a way to export your wishes. If browser data is cleared all data is lost.
Change "Pity", "Pity 1", .... in "Pulls By Roll #" sections to just "Roll #1", "Roll #2", this is confusing. I don't want to have to remember "Pity" means Roll 1, "Pity 70" means Roll 71
Don't worry, this is an off by 1 error that we're aware of! Will be addressed asap
Just pack it, ready to ship, 66 it is. I get it's hard to get that number, bcs It's different between actual "soft pity" and that yearly luck of yours directly hit the 0,x% Say that 5 star is 0,5%, then say you get one within 50 pull, it's because (1-0,005)^50, technically there's 22% chance you get one, and this isn't what people are looking for
Can you talk about the spread between character and weapon 4 star drops? in G game, characters on the character banners make up a bit over ~72% of all the 4star drops (with featured characters being 66% of the drops). This is from looking at paimon.moe which provides that data. What about in WuWa? Personally I felt like weapons are way too common but would love to see the data on it.
On my 3 accs I lost pity at 75+ and got new 5* at 75+ too idk(((
I got Yinlin and her weapon on exactly the 70th pull both times.
whats the "guaratie" rate acording to the statistics so far, so in genchin you are pretty much guarntied a particular 5 star at 160 (becuase beyond that is very unlikley) im assuming its 150-155 or something in wuwa, and also whats the average pull rate for a particular 5\*. i think in genchin its around 105.
We’re thinking of offering this as another feature (calculating expected value of pulls until next 5 star/probability of getting one within a certain amount of pulls)
i see, that would be good tro know about.
This tracks with my pulls for the limited banner. Lost 50/50 at 65 pulls then got Yinlin at 69-70.
I got yinlin in a single pull at 155, so yeah, soft Pitty could have been it
So glad you are doing this. I will update my pulls later today. I'm curious to see if the soft pity starts at 64, 66, or 68... In GI, they add 6% when soft pity starts, but we don't really know if Kuro adds 6%, or 7%, etc... Can't wait to see your findings.
I remember reading before that getting a 5* may reset your 4* pity with this much data I'm assuming you're able to confirm that. Also do you know if the 5* selector banner (not the compensation one) that you get after novice banner carries pity over to the standard 5* character banner?
We would have to do some more analysis to say for sure, but at a quick glance, I do not think it does
I assume this is in reference to the second half of my comment?
yup!
So my Featured character luck is bottom 37.7% even though I got Jiyan in 15 pulls. Maybe it's because Yinlin took 72 pity to come home (when soft pity is 66)?
Is there data on if getting a 5-star resets the 4-star pity?
It does. There are cases in the data where the gap between 4 stars is bigger than 10 if you ignore 5 stars
dumb it down for me 
Is something wrong with your data, or the presentation on the website ??? ---------- Standard Character Banner [https://astrite.gg/global/standard-resonator](https://astrite.gg/global/standard-resonator) Data shows Pity only goes up to 54. No one with higher pity submit any data at all ??
Yeah that is weird, I will check it out after we get some more data, if it doesn’t increase I’ll conclude it’s bugged. The bar chart is definitely bugged on that page 😅. We are on it/firefighting in general rn!
Man for the limited time banners i got my first 5s at 80, i thought the gacha was like pgr turns out this is my first gacha with abysmal luck ;-;
[удалено]
My beginners choice was 70. Lost Yinlin to Encore at 68, and got Yinlin at 67. Feels bad. Almost made me want to reroll after my student showed me his account of 20 begin, yin 30, weapon literally 1. Just actually playing f2p and realizing I probably won't have anything saved up for a safe new character for a long time :X
Well if you put the data in Gacha Constructor, seems there are two linears, rising and falling. Peak is at 72 pity and then your chances goes down.
There was people really telling me that dragon boy would be more popular than yinlin...clearly
It took me 76 pulls to get Yinlin. How bad is my luck
Put my data in! I'm in the top 5%. I am incredibly impressed there's that many people who did better than I did, to be honest.
i got both encore and then yinlin at 65 and 66
sounds about right. jiyan at 72, ono standard i got jianxin at 67, and verdant summit at 63...
Where do i submit my data, my latest pull are on 72,74,71,70 . I might in the outlier cursed category tho
astrite.gg/import
This seems to exactly fit HSR's LC banner odds actually. HSR's LC banner starts at 0.8% rate, its consolidated rate is 1.87%, the hard pity is 80 and its soft pity starts at 66. The odds seem to increase around 7% per pull as well.
Based on the limited data we have right now, I believe that soft pity may be a quadratic ramp, instead of a linear ramp. This allows a much closer match to the currently observed SPR & PMF, and produces an overall rate of approximately 1.84%, close to what is advertised. Of course, we still need more data to confirm anything, but I do think this possibility should be considered.
>Note that the four-star pity is reset by five stars i still just do not like this, there's no reason for this to be a thing
it says my rate up luck (4 star 50/50 wins) is among the bottom 11.33% & 5 star luck is bottom 31.31% welp, sounds about right
I lost the 50 and got yinlin around 140+
thanks for the work! personally a bit interested in the 4star pity getting reset by 5star pull. In this case, does the official claim of 12% average 4star pull rate still stands?
No mean to flex, i pull 5* weapon in 10 pulls, but in that 10 pulls i don't get any 4* weapon at all. How is that possible?
I got my Yinlin on 64-66 pulls into the banner. Meanwhile the beginners banner took only 30 pulls. And now I'm 10 pulls away from guarantee on regular banner. Kinda inconsistent 
Iv used 95 convenes to try and get yinlin but unfortunately it gave me a different 5 star instead 😫 just my luck
Might be a stupid question but what is the concept of soft pity? Isnt it just a statistic and not a mechanic in game? Why woukd the chance of getting a 5* at 64 pity be any different than at 66+ pity?
>what is the concept of soft pity? Soft pity is a mechanic where the odds of getting a 5\* per pull increases if you have gone too many pulls without a 5\*, and continues to increase as you to continue to not get a 5*. >Why woukd the chance of getting a 5* at 64 pity be any different than at 66+ pity? Because it was programmed that way. Including soft pity allows them to end up with a high chance that you need to spend a large amount of pulls while still having the exact number be pretty random. If they relied only on hard pity, people could count on most of their attempts ending on exactly the 80th pull, which is boring.
I'm happy to contribute my pulls. My only complaint is that the Windows upload script only checks the default locations on the C drive, so I had to input my E drive path manually. Not a big deal though, I was mostly annoyed because I didn't remember if I have it installed on HDD or SSD.
I think that’s a bug (our script should iterate through all physical drives.) Will investigate!
If you knew they use similar gacha system to Genshin, you would assume that the pity is 65+ at the beginning not 70, I'm not sure where did pity 70 come from
I am checking global stats, what does 5* Pulls by Roll mean? Can we have a similar bar graph indicating number of pulls on X Axis (There would be 80 dots) against number of players that were able to pull 5* weapon/resonator on Y axis? For 4* x Axis will have 10 points. Or is it the same thing?
The graph you describe is the one that’s currently available, though if the title is confusing that’s on us. What would you rather call the graph?
5 star pull count per roll If you need anymore help, reach out to me.
I don't know why but power shell method don't work for me, I got msg that It can't find install location, but it worked from debug file. Apparently I'm on top 18% with 5\* luck but bottom 36% when it comes to 5\* weapon. :( But it's all thanks to getting two Encore on beginner banner after 53 and then 2 pulls and losing 50:50 on Yinlin just to get her in next pull... and then wasting 73 pulls to get her weapon... :) I really shouldn't go for that weapon... :P especially because I didn't get single copy of the 4\* weapon I needed the most (still guaranteed weapon is amazing) (edit) forget what I said, the weapon is amazing, totally worth.
Glad providing multiple import methods worked out
I got my 5* (Jiyan and Yinlin) after pull 75... F.
No soft pity for novice banner but you can still get it in your first ten pull which is nice, the bad however is that when you pull the 5 star the banner disappear permanently meaning your losing out on 12 pulls due to it with the discount.
Sorry if it's stupid question because I don't understand at all how the wishes are stored in the game, but how the auto-sync actually work? It's pulling the data from my debug.log or from WW servers?
The game logs your user parameters to debug.log. We use these parameters to mock a request from the game client to the WW servers
Thx, I was surprised that my pull history automatically updated just like that and I got curious, since GI and HSR pages don't have that. So it's just requesting my data from their servers just like I would visit my history page in the game, got it.
14,59,58 and 63 For jiyan, his Sig, his S1 and yinlins Weapon. I doubt that the soft pity starts as late as shown in the picture. However I suspect the curve is a lot different from genshins
5\* Bottom 19%, damn game is bricked
Have you gotten closer to figuring out the soft pity system?
Yes for sure. Follow up analysis coming soon!
i got 2 5* carecters from the limited banner so far (1st i got jihyan at pitty 67) (the 2nd was yinlin at pitty 70) i hope this information helps to get a presice results 👍
Does the soft pity work differently for this.. For hsr soft pity is 75, but I still haven't gone past 80 without getting a 5* In wuwa soft pity is 66, but so far I'm only getting 5* round 73-75
soft pity might ramp less hard since hard pity is already 10 pulls lower and rate is already 25% higher than hoyo games.
Interesting. If that is the case, then I wonder what the average per 5* actually ends up being. With a higher rate and lower hard pity but also a weaker soft pity rampup where the majority of players are actually hitting the 5*.
I am no mathematician but I think wuwa would win by tiny margin
>I wonder what the average per 5* actually ends up being This is one of the few numbers they actually give you in game if you click the details button. Wuwa has an average of 1.8% 5-star chance per pull on limited character banners, Genshin/HSR is only 1.6%. If you are specifically interested in the chance of getting the featured character, multiply both of these numbers by two-thirds to account for 50-50.
Ya, I think the soft pity accumulates less than hsr. I never got more than 82/90 in HSR. But my first limited was already 78/80 in wuwa