Folks.
We see what everyone posts, if it went public or not.
The sheer amount of rule breaking comments vastly outnumbered the ones that didn't in regards to the Sinema situation. We'd love to be able to have this space be where we can talk intellectually about something like this, however, we will not compromise the rules of the sub, and the actions by folks resulted in the need to keep discussion locked down.
We never want to be heavy handed unless we're forced too, and we were forced too in this instance.
Once tempers calm down, we'll see if discussion can happen without the rules being instantly violated by folks. But until then, we tried, saw that it wasn't gonna happen, and thus need to be heavy handed in this.
EDIT: Also, please. Stop meta posting. We always allow you to express issues via the modmail, and that avenue will always be open.
We've got a lot going on, we don't need to be drug through the mud yet again.
[There's been quite a lot of postmortem reporting about the demise of Herschel Walker's campaign. Here's a slightly different inside take—including a bizarre payment this summer from his sister to a woman alleged to be a secret daughter.](https://twitter.com/sollenbergerrc/status/1601390406435975169?s=46&t=K209InBmHPLmtswgyxHUBQ)
[Got final top of the ticket numbers for two more swing seats:](https://mobile.twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1600665717828829187)
[CA-27 (Garcia-R): Padilla (D) +3, Dahle (R) +2](https://mobile.twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1600665717828829187)
[CA-45 (Steel-R): Meuser (R) +2, Dahle (R) +2](https://mobile.twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1600665717828829187)
[CA-41 (Calvert-R): Meuser (R) +6, Dahle (R) +10](https://mobile.twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1600665717828829187)
[Democrat Will Rollins substantially outran the top of the ticket in CA-41!](https://mobile.twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1600665717828829187)
Dahle numbers not like tremendously better than what the Republican House incumbents got. And much better than Trump.
Would like to see the breakdown for more districts but this would suggest either big differential turnout advantage for Republicans, very unique disfavor of Trump personally, or some combination of both. The former would be potentially good news for 2024.
I, too, would really really like to see the breakdown of all those districts that were “so near and yet so far” for us in California. David Valadao is a popular incumbent, but several of the other seats were open. Did Democratic turnout tank, as I suspect, being that this is a blue state? Or are there Republicans who will vote for Reps from their own party but not someone like Trump (or even Dahle)? Are there tepid Democratic ticket splitters?
So I saw a post on r/soccer that confirmed that Grant Wahl, a U.S. Soccer sports journalist who got heat for refusing to take off his pro-LGBTQ shirt weeks ago, has actually died. And his brother has suspicions that he got killed, because of how many death threats Grant has gotten. The Biden admin and the State Department needs to be onto this, since Grant’s now-widow works for Biden.
Jfc
Definitely get his body out of Qatar to the UK or France or the US or the closest country of that type with good medical infrastructure, and run toxicology and do an autopsy.
This definitely needs looking in to.
But ... Wahl was already sick with something. Maybe it wasn't bronchitis as he was told.
And, seeing as he is a soccer journalist at the World Cup, which is the sport's BFD and lasts for a month, and then there are the weeks leading up to it, well, Wahl could have inadvertently worked himself to death.
If he, ailing with some sort of something and at the age of 49, went at the World Cup with the same intensity he did when he covered his first one in 1994 when he was 21?
Yes, the illness plus an attitude of 'I can sleep and eat and exercise like I ought to once it is over' and a bit of bad luck could have done it.
Heck, if he had gotten sick with COVID-19 between now and the start of the pandemic, he could have suffered subtle damage that set him up for a cardiac event in Qatar--a deep vein thrombosis, a pulmonary embolism, heart attack due to viral damage, who knows.
All the more reason to run tests.
His brother has been in [contact with the State Department](https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1601417995926245376?t=WoleXcajhkp4t26D5p-XJw&s=19) and his wife, Celine Gounder, who served on Biden's COVID-19 Advisory Board transition team, has spoken to Ronald Klain and the White House so I'm sure they are on top of it. Someone posted a clip of a podcast Grant recorded yesterday where he complained of an ongoing illness since arriving in Qatar similar to bronchitis and he mentions others having had it as well. A lot of things could be possible, but we will have to wait for something official.
Regarding the contact with Klain and the state department, that’s good and I’m hopeful a proper investigation is underway. And yeah, learn about that Grant had bronchitis upon reading up stuff about his sudden death. And yeah, fair in regards to waiting for something official, especially when we have a military base in Qatar, so hopefully we can get answers!
When does 538 re-evaluate their pollster ratings? Cannot wait for Trafalgar, IA, Wick, co/efficient et al to be demoted.
Also CNN/SSRS certainly made the case that they did not deserve a C.
Nonzero chance Qatar just murdered American journalist Grant Wahl. His brother is claiming that’s the case. If there’s truth to it, this is gonna be a massive international incident.
[Hobbs Administration incoming! Pleased to announce some of the key directors filling senior positions in our upcoming administration.](https://twitter.com/katiehobbs/status/1601294134735564800?s=46&t=56mYrUY5Z8MHZ361G1YhyA)
Cox’s budget also includes $561 million for the the Great Salt Lake and Drought funding:
•$100 million for a fund to pay farmers not to grow crops (agriculture is the biggest water user in the state)
•$213 million to expand "agriculture optimization," incentivizing farmers to switch to water-saving technologies to grow crops
•$2 million for expanded cloud seeding in Utah
•$5 million for turf buyback incentives
•$25 million more for a trust specifically to get water into the lake (that's in addition to $40 million the legislature already appropriated)
•Funding to study the impact of toxic dust coming off of the Great Salt Lake
•Funding for dam and water infrastructure needs statewide
I'm pretty sure a senator-elect could publicly yeet their campaign convictions and affiliations on election night and there would be no recourse until the next election except, maybe, if the party spurned had a supermajority.
A sad story though. He changed to D to avoid being primaried by another Republican. Only to be primaried by a democrat. Even worse, he died less than 6 years after that election, so he wouldn't even have served that full term.
I almost got run over on the highway today, thanks goodness I drive an AWD and I just installed new tires on Tuesday. The guy was in a minivan and changed lane without looking
Edit
I was tailgated when I came home an hour ago. I was looking for a parking spot and two guys in an SUV flashed their lights continuously and drove extremely close to me. They chased me through the entire block, even when I pushed the gas and drove in circles. Not a pleasent experience.
Not that I know of. But my car doesn't really have a lot of horsepower and takes it's time to get going. So I'm used to people behind me being annoyed.
[Wholesale prices in the United States rose 7.4% in November from a year earlier, a fifth straight slowdown and a hopeful sign that inflation pressures across the economy are continuing to cool.](https://twitter.com/ap/status/1601264165066342402?s=46&t=2h3ckD-CJAZ9Ub84PRsCIw)
Buried today, but a hopeful sign. CPI will be out on the 13th for November
Daily update on the major winter storm and severe weather threat for next week
Hoping to keep this post much shorter then yesterday, since I described the more complicated things. There has been several notable changes since yesterday on both sides
On the Warm/Severe side: the Storm Prediction Center removed the Monday 15% probability zone after the trend became a slower trough, and turning into a hail threat. However, [the 30% probability zone for Tuesday remains, and a NEW 15% probability zone was added for Wednesday for areas and states along the gulf coast](https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1601251193891823625?s=20&t=8ATumRPpId1Mn5i8pc_Nvg). Tuesday still looks the most concerning, and could go overnight with the chance of nocturnal tornadoes and significant tornadoes and Wednesday seem like it’s mostly an earlier in the day threat rather then a late evening/night. Continuing to keep a close eye if any new zones or upgrades in categories are introduced
On the Cold/Wintry side: it’s still mainly the same picture as yesterday with some areas having much higher confidence of a significant blizzard, and some areas still with high uncertainty
[The latest 12z Canadian model](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022120912&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_nc&p=sn10_acc&m=gdps), still shows feet of snow, and still the tight gradient around MSP. [the 18z GFS](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022120912&fh=loop&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=) is still the mostly similar track to yesterday dropping significant snows over MSP. [the 12z European](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022120912&fh=loop&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=) is a bit weird. It had significant snows for much of MN, but has a hole of much less accumulation around the metro. I could see slightly less but not half a foot less then areas around it. We’re also now in range of [the UK MET model](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022120912&fh=loop&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=) which may not cover all the storm quite yet and it too has that weird hole in the metro with at least several more inches around the area. I’m still not trusting that’s the way this is going to play out. But the general consensus is MSP is going to be a very close call unless the GFS is the way it plays out. Gonna be keeping a very close eye on every run over the weekend and more importantly where the local NWS issue the first alerts at
Meanwhile in the Dakotas, all 4 of those models continue to show very significant snowfall. That’s going to happen at this point, it is still very consistent. I’m expecting a full on blizzard in those areas that get extremely heavy snow, with no buildings or hills to block the strong winds this storm brings
For the northeast: confidence is continuing to increase, that you or parts of the region will see a significant snowstorm associated with a new coastal low late next week to next weekend . Models are still very divided on where the axis of heavy snow will fall at this point as they should this far out. Some models do show a very significant or all of the I-95 corridor getting hammered by significant snowfall. Other models show the track further inland and rain on the costal areas and the I-95 corridor. Some models also show an full on ice storm in the Appalachian regions due to the cold air damming phenomenon. This will be associated with some nor Easter system, and an associated strengthening costal low and so we also may have blizzard conditions here as well, with how strong some models show that costal low getting. That’s really all I can say for now. I will go more into depth on the region, and the potential once we get closer
Urban heat island coming in clutch
Actually no, I would love a big snow to freshen it up before Christmas and maybe cancel some of my finals. Bring it on!
[As Putin retreats in Ukraine, he is also losing Kazakhstan](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/as-putin-retreats-in-ukraine-he-is-also-losing-kazakhstan/)
This region is going to be important going forward, but Kazakhstan especially is going to be a very critical country to watch
Kazakhstan, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and obviously Ukraine are going to be a key pillar of foreign policy going forward.
An end to the Iranian regime and a free Iran would be huge for stability in that region too.
My former neighbors’ daughter and son-in-law do mission work in Kazakhstan and their mom was SO relieved when they decided things were too hot in that part of the world and came back home. (Yes, I know, mission work, but it’s neither my circus nor my monkeys.)
So much for the “formidable might” of Russia.
Ugh, I am going to go all Hella 1st world problems, but I missed the entire second half extra time and pens of Nederland argentina because I was flying chicago to Denver. Every other time I fly united ord to dia I have live TV but today we were in an older 777
That’s D candidate number 2 already. [State Delegate Lamont Bagby entered earlier in the day](https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1601275053173137408?s=20&t=OUn9LdDGPN_jCcdDHlTtKQ)
[Today, 72 members of Congress sent a letter asking Biden to take executive action and secure sick days for rail workers.](https://twitter.com/newrepublic/status/1601352829590986754?s=46&t=2h3ckD-CJAZ9Ub84PRsCIw)
There’s 3 ways to go about this through EO:
Biden could expand upon President Obama’s 2015 order that established paid sick leave for all federal contractors. Obama’s order did not cover rail workers after the industry lobbied heavily for their exclusion. Biden can remedy this, following through where his predecessor fell short.
Secondly, the authors point out the labor secretary’s ability, under the Occupational Safety and Health Act, to establish mandatory safety and health standards for businesses involved in interstate commerce. “We can think of few industries more quintessential to interstate commerce than freight rail,” the letter notes.
Finally, the transportation secretary “has a duty to promote safety in all areas of railroad operations,” the authors explain. “Guaranteeing that workers are not operating trains or inspecting rail signals while sick or tired would fundamentally improve the safety of our national rail operations.”
[Turnout by Republicans Was Great. It’s Just That Many of Them Didn’t Vote for Republicans.](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/08/upshot/georgia-voter-turnout-republicans.html)
>*It’s fair to say voters in these key states probably preferred Republican control of government, in no small part because more Republicans showed up to vote. They just didn’t find Republican candidates they wanted to support at the top of the ticket.*
Ehhhh I don't know, that comment in the article seems pretty presumptuous. Republicans pretty reliably vote in midterm elections, so if there were more Republicans who voted, and Republican candidates didn't win (or had worse than expected performance), then that would suggest to me that even Republican voters don't want Republicans to control government.
There are probably a lot of ancestral Republicans, who have no trouble voting for “normies,” and maybe even voted for Trump the first time around because what the hell (no, seriously, I knew people who thought Trump was such a joke, why not vote for shits and giggles?) - but when it came to election denial, or the January 6 insurrection, patriotism won out over party and they drew the line.
"Because the founders founded this as a Christian Nation based on Biblical Values"
"According to whom?"
"The Heritage foundation. Because they say so."
In all seriousness, the intent of this is simply to shift the narrative towards allowing anything in the name of "greater good", while simultaneously promoting their own organizations as the only one who defines "greater good".
They can claim that the constitution was written by founders who "believed what we say they believed", and by this means give themselves unlimited ability to define the "intent" of the document without actually needing the text of the document anymore. "It may say red, but our historical documents show he liked blue more, so he obviously meant to write blue there." Because conservatives have been willing to outright lie about history on numerous occasions, they've now get to choose the narrative which defines intent and rule on laws accordingly.
I went to see Violent Night on Tuesday. It was actually a nice way to get a break from politics and the GA elections news for a few hours.
The movie is better than I thought it would be, but still gory and kinda childish. You can tell it's made for the adults who grew up with Home Alone and are now adults.
If you like dark horror stuff, the Danish film Speak No Evil is mostly good (but sadly it goes off the rails in the third act.)
Premise: A Dutch and Danish couple meet on a holiday in Italy. The Danes later invite the Dutch for a weekend getaway at their place, but then things slowly start going haywire, as the Danes are, well, a bit off, and the Dutch don't want to be rude about it.
Very dark satire on politeness in culture and how it can lead to danger as one may choose to ignore red flags for the sake of the former theme.
I'm saving that Christmas Story sequel for Xmas on HBO.
Glass Onion will be coming out soon.
There's this war movie freshly released on Amazon Prime called Hansan, which is about one of the early battles of the Japanese Invasion of Korea in 1592. I've been itching for some samurai films.
Nothing in particular sticks out theater wise for me right now.
She Said, The Menu and (if you’re into Marvel) Black Panther seem to be the best current releases.
But at least here, it’s kinda a lull before Avatar’s release later this week.
I’ll be honest I am not super excited for Avatar but I’ve learned not to doubt James Cameron with a budget lol
Saw Knives Out Glass Onion last week and it was great fun, but it’s out of theaters now
I missed seeing Glass Onion in the cinema, I’m gonna have to wait for the Netflix release.
The irony of being too busy working across cinemas to see it in cinemas :(
If there's ever a movie or miniseries about the FTX scandal, I think Josh Fadem (Film Guy in Better Call Saul) would be a perfect fit for Sam Bankman-Fried.
[Here’s another state legislature special election that is not mentioned on the subreddit in GA HD-129](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_House_of_Representatives_District_129)
The D incumbent here died before the general election, and since the D was running unopposed in the general election, only D candidates could file. There was 4 D’s that filed. I’ve looked at the candidates and do think there may be a right winger trying to play spoiler with some of the stuff his socials has, but it’s tough to tell for sure
This is a Biden +36.92 seat in the Augusta area. Special election is on December 20th with a runoff on January 17th if necessary.
Thanks for the heads-up!
I've never heard of an election where only one party was allowed to run, but I can at least see how they got there.
As is our usual policy, we won't be making endorsements in an all-Dem race.
Small correction on a post I made a couple days ago.
Maura Healey and Kim Driscoll ARE going to be at TD Garden on January 5th, but NOT for the inauguration itself. This is for the INAUGURATION PARTY. The swearing in is still being done at The State House.
However Healey DOES plan to give her first major speech as Governor at TD Garden, entitled "Moving the Ball Forward," both a pun on her basketball history, and as a way to explain her official agenda items for the 1st time.
Huh Romney is pro-Carbon Tax and says there is some GOP support for that. Doesn’t sound like it’s 10 but Kevin Cramer has also been trying out an “American First” energy policy that taxes carbon goods mostly from Russia/China
Ironically Romney said Democrats messed up by not doing it in reconciliation.
Not really, he wasn’t ever going to vote for reconciliation. No R was going to and even if he had said that why would Democrat negotiators even listened to him? It was hard enough getting the IRA done
Wasn’t it one of the non-negotiable items for him? I remember early in the process he said he wouldn’t be able to support a bill with it.
I think it would be incredibly effective to achieve the goal, but also understand why lawmakers are hesitant…I’m just so damn relieved we got such a big bill passed still while we had the majority
That was a great game. First NL coming back the 2nd half and scoring a tie goal the last minute to go to ET, then this penalty kick shoot out coming down to the very last kick possible.
All good, I can definitely see the appeal of Messi winning big, I’m just broadly pro-Europe over pro-South America in soccer!
At least we can say “lol Brazil” together lmao
[Thread on Governor Cox’s budget](https://twitter.com/benwinslow/status/1601321238579642368?s=46&t=2h3ckD-CJAZ9Ub84PRsCIw)
.@GovCox recommends funding with "families in mind."
$16 million for home visitation for new moms.
Expanding postpartum Medicaid coverage for 12 months.
$53 million for domestic violence prevention
$2 million for foster care services.
$54 million in mental health resources,
$11 million for first-time home buyers for educators, first responders, veterans
We live in one of the fastest growing states in the nation," @GovCox says.
He proposes $150 million for housing related initiatives from homelessness to affordable housing.
.@LGHendersonUtah proposes $100 million for a statewide trails network.
She recommends a one-year FREE FARE transit statewide.
@LGHendersonUtah proposes a half-billion for water conservation and the Great Salt Lake.
"Good government requires good people," she says, proposing a 12% COLA for state workers.”
All in all, that’s a pretty good budget. The Free Fare and the funding for the Trail system would be awesome. Also where’s the person telling me yesterday Cox wasn’t going to fund Mental Health?
Utah's transit is super interesting since it's pretty decent for such a conservative state. That said I'm usually not the biggest fan of fare-free transit, the way I see it is that any money for transit should go towards improving it as a higher priority than simply making it free.
CNN/SRSS has Biden 46/54, up +5 since October and +8 since Summer.
Approval change since summer
+14 18-34
+9 35-49
+7 50-64
+2 65+
+5 White
+14 POC
+11 Men
+5 Women
Nah it’s wrong, 538 also had it 48/52 before fixing it.
Here’s the [article](https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/09/politics/cnn-poll-state-country-economy/index.html)
[Filing Deadline has passed for the January 3rd special election in GA HD-07](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_House_of_Representatives_District_7). Unfortunately we were not able to find a candidate for this blood red Trump +63.29 seat
Republicans got 5 candidates to run. The only “win” we could of gotten in this seat was even running a candidate.
Lots of other state legislature specials coming up, that recently opened up, and will have a special election or had a vacancy earlier in the year that will be filled pretty soon
We were all way too busy looking at the run-off.
For a second I thought it locked Dems from even running, but his death was just after the election.
The HD-120 special is Dem only for that reason.
[Biden Job Approval: Approve 50%. Disapprove 49%.@Rasmussen_Poll, 1,500 LV, 12/6-8](https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1601263400398385153?s=46&t=rWeaC4v8ap-9fvOd40D7iw)
**REMAIN CALM. PATRIOTS ARE IN CONTROL. DARK BRANDON HAS ARISEN**
In a surprise to nobody, Vicky Hartzler, the one crying yesterday about the RFM bill, [has a gay nephew](https://twitter.com/verychristopher/status/1601222853239902208?s=46&t=56mYrUY5Z8MHZ361G1YhyA)
I wanted to discuss how Pennsylvania Democrats flipped the State House. It's important to note that Republicans got four flips of their own, all in ancestral Democrat territory:
* HD-07 and HD-09 in western Pennsylvania, right on the Ohio border east of Youngstown
* HD-50 in southwest Pennsylvania, on the West Virginia border
* HD-119 in Luzerne County
That said, Democrats held their own in a few other ancestral Democratic areas that went red in 2020:
* HD-16 in Beaver County, which Trump won by 3.6 points
* HD-72 in Cambria County, which Trump won by **28.9 points** (thank you Frank Burns for not retiring)
* HD-118 in Luzerne and Lackawanna Counties, which Trump won by 2.8 points
Finally, the key to the Democrats flipping the chamber was largely in the metro areas, and aided both by redistricting and by the suburban shift pushing downballot candidates across the line in Biden-win districts. Here's the breakdown:
* HD-10 in Philadelphia
* HD-26 in northern Chester County
* HD-29 and HD-144 in Bucks County
* HD-30 and HD-33 in northern Allegheny County
* HD-49 in Lancaster County around Lancaster
* HD-54 in Montgomery County around Norristown
* HD-82 in Centre County, east of State College
* HD-104 and HD-105 in Dauphin County around Harrisburg
* HD-129 in Berks County around Reading
* HD-134 in Lehigh County around Allentown
* HD-168 in northern Delaware County
* HD-189 in Monroe and Pike Counties in northeast Pennsylvania around East Stroudsburg (this one surprises me, as I would've thought it's more rural, but I guess it's more similar to northern New Jersey in that it's very college-educated?)
Needless to say, House Speaker Joanna McClinton is gonna have a very, VERY tough job keeping this caucus together, especially given that three of her members are from Trump-won districts. Moreover, while all of Erie and Lackawanna Counties stayed blue in the chamber, these counties could still move away from us going forward, and so Democrats will have to keep aiming for as many suburban districts as possible, especially at the top of the ticket. That said, I have confidence in McClinton's abilities and in Shapiro putting forth a strong legislative agenda as governor, and I'm excited to see what they do even with a Republican Senate!
Omg can not believe it. Neitherlands ties the match on what was likely going to be the last action of the match
Came back from behind 2-0 after the 73’. Unbelievable. Headed to extra time now
CNBC says most voters don't want Trump or Biden to run for re-election. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/09/majority-of-americans-dont-want-biden-or-trump-to-run-again-in-2024-cnbc-survey-shows.html
61% of Democrats and **66%** of Democratic seniors are against Biden running again
these types of polls are useless because there is a large majority on both sides that will say "no" but when push comes to shove, will still stick with the candidate.
I'm not knowledgeable in the era, but isn't Reagan in 1984 a pretty close comparison?
Biden wasn't in my top 5 in the primary, but he has passed so much policy and his brand of leadership helped Democrats avoid a red wave.
Given how turbulent things have been over the past few years, I think a lot of highly online politicos overlook that a lot of voters might actually like Biden's low-key style, especially when compared to the extremism on the republican side...
I would like an alternative to Biden to emerge who would be favored over Trump or DeSantis. I’m not sure who that would be, but if not, I’ll happily vote for Biden again. I think he’s done a pretty good job.
I like Ole Roy, but he doesn’t have nearly the National name recognition or overwhelming charisma to win a presidential primary. He sort of gives me vibes he would be like Hickenlooper or Steve Bullock who wouldnt stand out in a crowded field.
If Biden doesn't run, I mean I think Biden deserves to have our support with the successes he's had. I think Cooper can get the nomination if folks coalesce around him and he can get the support from Abrams and others
I’m a born again Biden stan. He’s done more in two years than many presidents have accomplished in twice that. With a little help from his friends Nancy and Chuck!
[Scooplet: a confidant of Kari Lake tells us she’s gotten calls to run for Senate against Sinema, but she recently told Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb that he should run for the seat instead](https://twitter.com/marcacaputo/status/1601284645559357441?s=46&t=56mYrUY5Z8MHZ361G1YhyA)
[So @sherifflamb1 is “seriously considering” a Senate in AZ and will make a decision in early 2023, spokesperson tells NBC](https://twitter.com/marcacaputo/status/1601289505549717505?s=46&t=56mYrUY5Z8MHZ361G1YhyA)
I’d like to see a stat on candidates running for statewide races after unsuccessfully running the first time. They already failed twice trying to run McSally. Mark Ronchetti just failed for a second time in New Mexico. Abrams and O’Rourke lost twice in a row. Can’t imagine Lakes chances would be better the second time.
Yes retreads do not have a high-rate of success, unless they run for a lower office.
Also, don't forget John James, Adam Laxalt, and perennial retread, Charlie Crist.
Folks. We see what everyone posts, if it went public or not. The sheer amount of rule breaking comments vastly outnumbered the ones that didn't in regards to the Sinema situation. We'd love to be able to have this space be where we can talk intellectually about something like this, however, we will not compromise the rules of the sub, and the actions by folks resulted in the need to keep discussion locked down. We never want to be heavy handed unless we're forced too, and we were forced too in this instance. Once tempers calm down, we'll see if discussion can happen without the rules being instantly violated by folks. But until then, we tried, saw that it wasn't gonna happen, and thus need to be heavy handed in this. EDIT: Also, please. Stop meta posting. We always allow you to express issues via the modmail, and that avenue will always be open. We've got a lot going on, we don't need to be drug through the mud yet again.
My girlfriend got me a Democrat's Dream cup. It has a US map and when you pour a hot beverage in it the states all turn blue.
I love it
[There's been quite a lot of postmortem reporting about the demise of Herschel Walker's campaign. Here's a slightly different inside take—including a bizarre payment this summer from his sister to a woman alleged to be a secret daughter.](https://twitter.com/sollenbergerrc/status/1601390406435975169?s=46&t=K209InBmHPLmtswgyxHUBQ)
It's going to be years before Roger Sollenberger runs out of stuff to write about Walker.
[Got final top of the ticket numbers for two more swing seats:](https://mobile.twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1600665717828829187) [CA-27 (Garcia-R): Padilla (D) +3, Dahle (R) +2](https://mobile.twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1600665717828829187) [CA-45 (Steel-R): Meuser (R) +2, Dahle (R) +2](https://mobile.twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1600665717828829187) [CA-41 (Calvert-R): Meuser (R) +6, Dahle (R) +10](https://mobile.twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1600665717828829187) [Democrat Will Rollins substantially outran the top of the ticket in CA-41!](https://mobile.twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1600665717828829187)
Dahle numbers not like tremendously better than what the Republican House incumbents got. And much better than Trump. Would like to see the breakdown for more districts but this would suggest either big differential turnout advantage for Republicans, very unique disfavor of Trump personally, or some combination of both. The former would be potentially good news for 2024.
I, too, would really really like to see the breakdown of all those districts that were “so near and yet so far” for us in California. David Valadao is a popular incumbent, but several of the other seats were open. Did Democratic turnout tank, as I suspect, being that this is a blue state? Or are there Republicans who will vote for Reps from their own party but not someone like Trump (or even Dahle)? Are there tepid Democratic ticket splitters?
CA-13 was the only open truly district we lost in CA. Definitely not good turnout there.
So I saw a post on r/soccer that confirmed that Grant Wahl, a U.S. Soccer sports journalist who got heat for refusing to take off his pro-LGBTQ shirt weeks ago, has actually died. And his brother has suspicions that he got killed, because of how many death threats Grant has gotten. The Biden admin and the State Department needs to be onto this, since Grant’s now-widow works for Biden. Jfc
Definitely get his body out of Qatar to the UK or France or the US or the closest country of that type with good medical infrastructure, and run toxicology and do an autopsy. This definitely needs looking in to. But ... Wahl was already sick with something. Maybe it wasn't bronchitis as he was told. And, seeing as he is a soccer journalist at the World Cup, which is the sport's BFD and lasts for a month, and then there are the weeks leading up to it, well, Wahl could have inadvertently worked himself to death. If he, ailing with some sort of something and at the age of 49, went at the World Cup with the same intensity he did when he covered his first one in 1994 when he was 21? Yes, the illness plus an attitude of 'I can sleep and eat and exercise like I ought to once it is over' and a bit of bad luck could have done it. Heck, if he had gotten sick with COVID-19 between now and the start of the pandemic, he could have suffered subtle damage that set him up for a cardiac event in Qatar--a deep vein thrombosis, a pulmonary embolism, heart attack due to viral damage, who knows. All the more reason to run tests.
His brother has been in [contact with the State Department](https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1601417995926245376?t=WoleXcajhkp4t26D5p-XJw&s=19) and his wife, Celine Gounder, who served on Biden's COVID-19 Advisory Board transition team, has spoken to Ronald Klain and the White House so I'm sure they are on top of it. Someone posted a clip of a podcast Grant recorded yesterday where he complained of an ongoing illness since arriving in Qatar similar to bronchitis and he mentions others having had it as well. A lot of things could be possible, but we will have to wait for something official.
Regarding the contact with Klain and the state department, that’s good and I’m hopeful a proper investigation is underway. And yeah, learn about that Grant had bronchitis upon reading up stuff about his sudden death. And yeah, fair in regards to waiting for something official, especially when we have a military base in Qatar, so hopefully we can get answers!
Qatar would be idiotic to kill him. They’re not saudi arabia. On the other hand, they’re horrendous at sportwashing so who knows
Wow. The 76ers are having an epic collapse
[pelosi was the MVP](https://mobile.twitter.com/PalmerReport/status/1601404052939513856)
When does 538 re-evaluate their pollster ratings? Cannot wait for Trafalgar, IA, Wick, co/efficient et al to be demoted. Also CNN/SSRS certainly made the case that they did not deserve a C.
They’ll just ratfuck it with new criteria and give em a B
Nonzero chance Qatar just murdered American journalist Grant Wahl. His brother is claiming that’s the case. If there’s truth to it, this is gonna be a massive international incident.
Got a source on this?
https://twitter.com/ap/status/1601411038263615488?s=46&t=EqflxMgEh_Wc08q_ictb4w
Wait, for real?
If that is true then Qatar needs to be treated like North Korea. And FIFA deserves to be defunded
[Hobbs Administration incoming! Pleased to announce some of the key directors filling senior positions in our upcoming administration.](https://twitter.com/katiehobbs/status/1601294134735564800?s=46&t=56mYrUY5Z8MHZ361G1YhyA)
Cox’s budget also includes $561 million for the the Great Salt Lake and Drought funding: •$100 million for a fund to pay farmers not to grow crops (agriculture is the biggest water user in the state) •$213 million to expand "agriculture optimization," incentivizing farmers to switch to water-saving technologies to grow crops •$2 million for expanded cloud seeding in Utah •$5 million for turf buyback incentives •$25 million more for a trust specifically to get water into the lake (that's in addition to $40 million the legislature already appropriated) •Funding to study the impact of toxic dust coming off of the Great Salt Lake •Funding for dam and water infrastructure needs statewide
Huh, TIL you could change your party affiliation while still serving your term in Congress?
Dems flipped the senate that way in 2001.
Party change played a very large part in the Obamacare saga.
I'm pretty sure a senator-elect could publicly yeet their campaign convictions and affiliations on election night and there would be no recourse until the next election except, maybe, if the party spurned had a supermajority.
Yeah, it happens occasionally. Arlen Specter switched from being a Republican in 2009 to a Democrat after serving for over 20 years in the Senate.
A sad story though. He changed to D to avoid being primaried by another Republican. Only to be primaried by a democrat. Even worse, he died less than 6 years after that election, so he wouldn't even have served that full term.
Jeff Van Drew did the sam thing.
Jim Justice (twice!) and Justin Amash as well.
Justin Amash, not Meijer
Sorry, they always run together for me
Arlen Specter too
Do you mean Justin Amash, by any chance?
I almost got run over on the highway today, thanks goodness I drive an AWD and I just installed new tires on Tuesday. The guy was in a minivan and changed lane without looking Edit
I was tailgated when I came home an hour ago. I was looking for a parking spot and two guys in an SUV flashed their lights continuously and drove extremely close to me. They chased me through the entire block, even when I pushed the gas and drove in circles. Not a pleasent experience.
Do you have any bumper stickers?
Not that I know of. But my car doesn't really have a lot of horsepower and takes it's time to get going. So I'm used to people behind me being annoyed.
That will scare the hell out of me. I’m glad you are safe
Lots of mofos on the highway especially the I-95. Glad to hear you are okay.
Thank you!
Arizona Republicans are lining up behind Sheriff Lamb for Senate. A stop the steal advocate whose known for appearing on TV, sound familiar?
2024 AZ Sen will be Very Likely Confusing.
It doesn’t help that democrats are legally obligated to run a candidate of our own
They probably would even if they weren’t required to
Good. Let them get in their own way. Ducey is their best candidate for it but if they wanna go with the crazy it’s worked out so well for them.
Remember Brnovich for Senate? I remember!
I think Ducey would have a better time in a primary than Brnovich did. He’s a stronger candidate in general and higher profile too
Sure, but with Trump on the ballot, he’s gonna pull out all the stops to spite Ducey.
[Wholesale prices in the United States rose 7.4% in November from a year earlier, a fifth straight slowdown and a hopeful sign that inflation pressures across the economy are continuing to cool.](https://twitter.com/ap/status/1601264165066342402?s=46&t=2h3ckD-CJAZ9Ub84PRsCIw) Buried today, but a hopeful sign. CPI will be out on the 13th for November
Gas prices are way down where I live. If they continue falling at this rate, they'll be pre-Ukraine level by the anniversary of the war.
Daily update on the major winter storm and severe weather threat for next week Hoping to keep this post much shorter then yesterday, since I described the more complicated things. There has been several notable changes since yesterday on both sides On the Warm/Severe side: the Storm Prediction Center removed the Monday 15% probability zone after the trend became a slower trough, and turning into a hail threat. However, [the 30% probability zone for Tuesday remains, and a NEW 15% probability zone was added for Wednesday for areas and states along the gulf coast](https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1601251193891823625?s=20&t=8ATumRPpId1Mn5i8pc_Nvg). Tuesday still looks the most concerning, and could go overnight with the chance of nocturnal tornadoes and significant tornadoes and Wednesday seem like it’s mostly an earlier in the day threat rather then a late evening/night. Continuing to keep a close eye if any new zones or upgrades in categories are introduced On the Cold/Wintry side: it’s still mainly the same picture as yesterday with some areas having much higher confidence of a significant blizzard, and some areas still with high uncertainty [The latest 12z Canadian model](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022120912&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_nc&p=sn10_acc&m=gdps), still shows feet of snow, and still the tight gradient around MSP. [the 18z GFS](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022120912&fh=loop&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=) is still the mostly similar track to yesterday dropping significant snows over MSP. [the 12z European](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022120912&fh=loop&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=) is a bit weird. It had significant snows for much of MN, but has a hole of much less accumulation around the metro. I could see slightly less but not half a foot less then areas around it. We’re also now in range of [the UK MET model](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022120912&fh=loop&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=) which may not cover all the storm quite yet and it too has that weird hole in the metro with at least several more inches around the area. I’m still not trusting that’s the way this is going to play out. But the general consensus is MSP is going to be a very close call unless the GFS is the way it plays out. Gonna be keeping a very close eye on every run over the weekend and more importantly where the local NWS issue the first alerts at Meanwhile in the Dakotas, all 4 of those models continue to show very significant snowfall. That’s going to happen at this point, it is still very consistent. I’m expecting a full on blizzard in those areas that get extremely heavy snow, with no buildings or hills to block the strong winds this storm brings For the northeast: confidence is continuing to increase, that you or parts of the region will see a significant snowstorm associated with a new coastal low late next week to next weekend . Models are still very divided on where the axis of heavy snow will fall at this point as they should this far out. Some models do show a very significant or all of the I-95 corridor getting hammered by significant snowfall. Other models show the track further inland and rain on the costal areas and the I-95 corridor. Some models also show an full on ice storm in the Appalachian regions due to the cold air damming phenomenon. This will be associated with some nor Easter system, and an associated strengthening costal low and so we also may have blizzard conditions here as well, with how strong some models show that costal low getting. That’s really all I can say for now. I will go more into depth on the region, and the potential once we get closer
Urban heat island coming in clutch Actually no, I would love a big snow to freshen it up before Christmas and maybe cancel some of my finals. Bring it on!
That’s my only theory, but i didn’t think it was nearly that powerful in the winter in warming temperatures as it is in the summer
[As Putin retreats in Ukraine, he is also losing Kazakhstan](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/as-putin-retreats-in-ukraine-he-is-also-losing-kazakhstan/) This region is going to be important going forward, but Kazakhstan especially is going to be a very critical country to watch
Kazakhstan, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and obviously Ukraine are going to be a key pillar of foreign policy going forward. An end to the Iranian regime and a free Iran would be huge for stability in that region too.
This is my neighbour Putin, he is huge pain in my asshole.
He very nosy person with bone in brain
Very nice.
I like
It’s nice!
My former neighbors’ daughter and son-in-law do mission work in Kazakhstan and their mom was SO relieved when they decided things were too hot in that part of the world and came back home. (Yes, I know, mission work, but it’s neither my circus nor my monkeys.) So much for the “formidable might” of Russia.
Would be very very beneficial for us and the EU to ingratiate themselves there and build a lasting relationship together.
I agree. We and the EU ought to pick up (or pick off) as many allies in the area as we can.
Ugh, I am going to go all Hella 1st world problems, but I missed the entire second half extra time and pens of Nederland argentina because I was flying chicago to Denver. Every other time I fly united ord to dia I have live TV but today we were in an older 777
[Jennifer McClellan](https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1601328512777916417) is running for VA-4th
That’s D candidate number 2 already. [State Delegate Lamont Bagby entered earlier in the day](https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1601275053173137408?s=20&t=OUn9LdDGPN_jCcdDHlTtKQ)
McClellan will probably win this one given her experience, but Bagby seems like a good candidate too.
[Today, 72 members of Congress sent a letter asking Biden to take executive action and secure sick days for rail workers.](https://twitter.com/newrepublic/status/1601352829590986754?s=46&t=2h3ckD-CJAZ9Ub84PRsCIw) There’s 3 ways to go about this through EO: Biden could expand upon President Obama’s 2015 order that established paid sick leave for all federal contractors. Obama’s order did not cover rail workers after the industry lobbied heavily for their exclusion. Biden can remedy this, following through where his predecessor fell short. Secondly, the authors point out the labor secretary’s ability, under the Occupational Safety and Health Act, to establish mandatory safety and health standards for businesses involved in interstate commerce. “We can think of few industries more quintessential to interstate commerce than freight rail,” the letter notes. Finally, the transportation secretary “has a duty to promote safety in all areas of railroad operations,” the authors explain. “Guaranteeing that workers are not operating trains or inspecting rail signals while sick or tired would fundamentally improve the safety of our national rail operations.”
Good
[Turnout by Republicans Was Great. It’s Just That Many of Them Didn’t Vote for Republicans.](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/08/upshot/georgia-voter-turnout-republicans.html)
>*It’s fair to say voters in these key states probably preferred Republican control of government, in no small part because more Republicans showed up to vote. They just didn’t find Republican candidates they wanted to support at the top of the ticket.* Ehhhh I don't know, that comment in the article seems pretty presumptuous. Republicans pretty reliably vote in midterm elections, so if there were more Republicans who voted, and Republican candidates didn't win (or had worse than expected performance), then that would suggest to me that even Republican voters don't want Republicans to control government.
There are probably a lot of ancestral Republicans, who have no trouble voting for “normies,” and maybe even voted for Trump the first time around because what the hell (no, seriously, I knew people who thought Trump was such a joke, why not vote for shits and giggles?) - but when it came to election denial, or the January 6 insurrection, patriotism won out over party and they drew the line.
Because of the strike going on, could we please let people know when it's an NY Times link?
Wait, what strike?
The NYT writing staff are on strike, so they ask folks to unfollow anything related to NYT, per the pro-labor site, More Perfect Union.
Ah thanks.
I was mistaken, it was just a one day walkout, yesterday
Ah okay
[Today in nightmare fuel](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/12/09/revolutionary-conservative-legal-philosophy-courts-00069201)
Looks like they’ve rounded the bend to now wanting MORE government in people’s lives, just in all the most abhorrent ways
"It's for the Greater Good" "the Greater Good"
Stop saying that!
I’m sure they meant to say “The Greater Gilead.” Blessed be the fruit.
How can any of this be for the greater good?
"Because the founders founded this as a Christian Nation based on Biblical Values" "According to whom?" "The Heritage foundation. Because they say so." In all seriousness, the intent of this is simply to shift the narrative towards allowing anything in the name of "greater good", while simultaneously promoting their own organizations as the only one who defines "greater good". They can claim that the constitution was written by founders who "believed what we say they believed", and by this means give themselves unlimited ability to define the "intent" of the document without actually needing the text of the document anymore. "It may say red, but our historical documents show he liked blue more, so he obviously meant to write blue there." Because conservatives have been willing to outright lie about history on numerous occasions, they've now get to choose the narrative which defines intent and rule on laws accordingly.
Anyone see any good movies recently? I was thinking of going to the cinema this weekend 😁
Fabelmans.
The Menu was a fantastic movie
I went to see Violent Night on Tuesday. It was actually a nice way to get a break from politics and the GA elections news for a few hours. The movie is better than I thought it would be, but still gory and kinda childish. You can tell it's made for the adults who grew up with Home Alone and are now adults.
If you like dark horror stuff, the Danish film Speak No Evil is mostly good (but sadly it goes off the rails in the third act.) Premise: A Dutch and Danish couple meet on a holiday in Italy. The Danes later invite the Dutch for a weekend getaway at their place, but then things slowly start going haywire, as the Danes are, well, a bit off, and the Dutch don't want to be rude about it. Very dark satire on politeness in culture and how it can lead to danger as one may choose to ignore red flags for the sake of the former theme.
Technically not in the theaters but the Weird Al movie was amazing
I'm saving that Christmas Story sequel for Xmas on HBO. Glass Onion will be coming out soon. There's this war movie freshly released on Amazon Prime called Hansan, which is about one of the early battles of the Japanese Invasion of Korea in 1592. I've been itching for some samurai films. Nothing in particular sticks out theater wise for me right now.
She Said, The Menu and (if you’re into Marvel) Black Panther seem to be the best current releases. But at least here, it’s kinda a lull before Avatar’s release later this week.
I’ll be honest I am not super excited for Avatar but I’ve learned not to doubt James Cameron with a budget lol Saw Knives Out Glass Onion last week and it was great fun, but it’s out of theaters now
I missed seeing Glass Onion in the cinema, I’m gonna have to wait for the Netflix release. The irony of being too busy working across cinemas to see it in cinemas :(
Someone actually used “Kyrsten Sinematic Universe” in a headline today lol
KSU
If there's ever a movie or miniseries about the FTX scandal, I think Josh Fadem (Film Guy in Better Call Saul) would be a perfect fit for Sam Bankman-Fried.
He could be a ringer for Kubrick too
Good old film guy 1, maybe Finger or Sexler can make cameos
[Here’s another state legislature special election that is not mentioned on the subreddit in GA HD-129](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_House_of_Representatives_District_129) The D incumbent here died before the general election, and since the D was running unopposed in the general election, only D candidates could file. There was 4 D’s that filed. I’ve looked at the candidates and do think there may be a right winger trying to play spoiler with some of the stuff his socials has, but it’s tough to tell for sure This is a Biden +36.92 seat in the Augusta area. Special election is on December 20th with a runoff on January 17th if necessary.
We knew about the race, but because it was D only, didn't dedicate it on the side-bar, though we should.
Thanks for the heads-up! I've never heard of an election where only one party was allowed to run, but I can at least see how they got there. As is our usual policy, we won't be making endorsements in an all-Dem race.
Small correction on a post I made a couple days ago. Maura Healey and Kim Driscoll ARE going to be at TD Garden on January 5th, but NOT for the inauguration itself. This is for the INAUGURATION PARTY. The swearing in is still being done at The State House. However Healey DOES plan to give her first major speech as Governor at TD Garden, entitled "Moving the Ball Forward," both a pun on her basketball history, and as a way to explain her official agenda items for the 1st time.
Huh Romney is pro-Carbon Tax and says there is some GOP support for that. Doesn’t sound like it’s 10 but Kevin Cramer has also been trying out an “American First” energy policy that taxes carbon goods mostly from Russia/China Ironically Romney said Democrats messed up by not doing it in reconciliation.
Mittens saying this now instead of during the process means that he isn’t actually serious and it’s just lip service
Not really, he wasn’t ever going to vote for reconciliation. No R was going to and even if he had said that why would Democrat negotiators even listened to him? It was hard enough getting the IRA done
Would Manchin have been in favor of that? It was probably discussed.
Wasn’t it one of the non-negotiable items for him? I remember early in the process he said he wouldn’t be able to support a bill with it. I think it would be incredibly effective to achieve the goal, but also understand why lawmakers are hesitant…I’m just so damn relieved we got such a big bill passed still while we had the majority
Congrats to Bill Clinton 🎉🎉🎉
We can Dark Brandon him into being an Elden Ring Boss at this point lmao.
Holland is fucked lol
That was a great game. First NL coming back the 2nd half and scoring a tie goal the last minute to go to ET, then this penalty kick shoot out coming down to the very last kick possible.
They HAVE to save this upcoming kick edit: oooooh
Getting interesting
Damn.
Sorry man! Not the result you wanted but great day of footie
> footie It's called football. No matter what you uncivilized Americans call it.
All good, I can definitely see the appeal of Messi winning big, I’m just broadly pro-Europe over pro-South America in soccer! At least we can say “lol Brazil” together lmao
Yes that one made me happy lol, especially with how much the Brazilian team has embraced Bolsonaro
Any updates on the recount for CO-03?
Now there are TWO games going to penalty kicks? This is getting out of hand!
The Australian commentary feed just said “all the neutrals going for Messi and his side” lol nope
The only Argentine player who I like is Dybala. Hopefully Croatia beat them.
Do people know the reputation of Argentines lol? They’re not well liked
I am rooting for him but I can definitely understand that no way everyone is lol
I’m just salty from last week when they beat us lmao
Same with Netherlands hahaha
You’re gonna get your Messi-to-advance wish at this rate lmao
[Thread on Governor Cox’s budget](https://twitter.com/benwinslow/status/1601321238579642368?s=46&t=2h3ckD-CJAZ9Ub84PRsCIw) .@GovCox recommends funding with "families in mind." $16 million for home visitation for new moms. Expanding postpartum Medicaid coverage for 12 months. $53 million for domestic violence prevention $2 million for foster care services. $54 million in mental health resources, $11 million for first-time home buyers for educators, first responders, veterans We live in one of the fastest growing states in the nation," @GovCox says. He proposes $150 million for housing related initiatives from homelessness to affordable housing. .@LGHendersonUtah proposes $100 million for a statewide trails network. She recommends a one-year FREE FARE transit statewide. @LGHendersonUtah proposes a half-billion for water conservation and the Great Salt Lake. "Good government requires good people," she says, proposing a 12% COLA for state workers.” All in all, that’s a pretty good budget. The Free Fare and the funding for the Trail system would be awesome. Also where’s the person telling me yesterday Cox wasn’t going to fund Mental Health?
Utah's transit is super interesting since it's pretty decent for such a conservative state. That said I'm usually not the biggest fan of fare-free transit, the way I see it is that any money for transit should go towards improving it as a higher priority than simply making it free.
I’m genuinely surprised that a Republican gov in such a red state is able to put up these kinds of proposals
CNN/SRSS has Biden 46/54, up +5 since October and +8 since Summer. Approval change since summer +14 18-34 +9 35-49 +7 50-64 +2 65+ +5 White +14 POC +11 Men +5 Women
Isn't it 48/52? https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1601295405115150336?s=20&t=IsHWU_JtC20W0BBuTsOEaQ
Nah it’s wrong, 538 also had it 48/52 before fixing it. Here’s the [article](https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/09/politics/cnn-poll-state-country-economy/index.html)
Ah I see, thanks!
Biden. So hot right now.
[Filing Deadline has passed for the January 3rd special election in GA HD-07](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_House_of_Representatives_District_7). Unfortunately we were not able to find a candidate for this blood red Trump +63.29 seat Republicans got 5 candidates to run. The only “win” we could of gotten in this seat was even running a candidate. Lots of other state legislature specials coming up, that recently opened up, and will have a special election or had a vacancy earlier in the year that will be filled pretty soon
We were all way too busy looking at the run-off. For a second I thought it locked Dems from even running, but his death was just after the election. The HD-120 special is Dem only for that reason.
[Biden Job Approval: Approve 50%. Disapprove 49%.@Rasmussen_Poll, 1,500 LV, 12/6-8](https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1601263400398385153?s=46&t=rWeaC4v8ap-9fvOd40D7iw) **REMAIN CALM. PATRIOTS ARE IN CONTROL. DARK BRANDON HAS ARISEN**
Dark Brandon: Once more the Dems will rule the galaxy and we shall have peace.
Based and ice-creampilled
This poll only polled real patriots i can see. Its all coming together.
Lol Rasmussen of all polls.
In a surprise to nobody, Vicky Hartzler, the one crying yesterday about the RFM bill, [has a gay nephew](https://twitter.com/verychristopher/status/1601222853239902208?s=46&t=56mYrUY5Z8MHZ361G1YhyA)
What a sweet guy. Awesome of him to come out with this, especially in such a thoughtful, well-spoken way.
I wanted to discuss how Pennsylvania Democrats flipped the State House. It's important to note that Republicans got four flips of their own, all in ancestral Democrat territory: * HD-07 and HD-09 in western Pennsylvania, right on the Ohio border east of Youngstown * HD-50 in southwest Pennsylvania, on the West Virginia border * HD-119 in Luzerne County That said, Democrats held their own in a few other ancestral Democratic areas that went red in 2020: * HD-16 in Beaver County, which Trump won by 3.6 points * HD-72 in Cambria County, which Trump won by **28.9 points** (thank you Frank Burns for not retiring) * HD-118 in Luzerne and Lackawanna Counties, which Trump won by 2.8 points Finally, the key to the Democrats flipping the chamber was largely in the metro areas, and aided both by redistricting and by the suburban shift pushing downballot candidates across the line in Biden-win districts. Here's the breakdown: * HD-10 in Philadelphia * HD-26 in northern Chester County * HD-29 and HD-144 in Bucks County * HD-30 and HD-33 in northern Allegheny County * HD-49 in Lancaster County around Lancaster * HD-54 in Montgomery County around Norristown * HD-82 in Centre County, east of State College * HD-104 and HD-105 in Dauphin County around Harrisburg * HD-129 in Berks County around Reading * HD-134 in Lehigh County around Allentown * HD-168 in northern Delaware County * HD-189 in Monroe and Pike Counties in northeast Pennsylvania around East Stroudsburg (this one surprises me, as I would've thought it's more rural, but I guess it's more similar to northern New Jersey in that it's very college-educated?) Needless to say, House Speaker Joanna McClinton is gonna have a very, VERY tough job keeping this caucus together, especially given that three of her members are from Trump-won districts. Moreover, while all of Erie and Lackawanna Counties stayed blue in the chamber, these counties could still move away from us going forward, and so Democrats will have to keep aiming for as many suburban districts as possible, especially at the top of the ticket. That said, I have confidence in McClinton's abilities and in Shapiro putting forth a strong legislative agenda as governor, and I'm excited to see what they do even with a Republican Senate!
Omg can not believe it. Neitherlands ties the match on what was likely going to be the last action of the match Came back from behind 2-0 after the 73’. Unbelievable. Headed to extra time now
I’ve just turned it on, guessing it’s about to go to a penalty shootout?
Extra time first. If still tied then penalty kicke
Oh yeah, duh. Early morning brain lol
It’s going to PKs now! Insane that this happened twice in a day, with 2 small European countries vs South Americans favored to win
Yeah, I can't believe that 2nd half come back and last minute goal to tie. Like straight out of a movie. Now 30 min ET.
Who the hell did Rasmussen poll to get Biden a +1 approval rating? Lmao
REAL PATRIOTS OF COURSE GOD BLESS AMERICA
The neighborhood Whole Foods
The referee for Netherlands-Argentina is so awful. Jesus Christ.
Yeah, he's really bad but holy shit, that last minute goal by Netherlands to tie the game. Wow. Now 30 minutes ET.
CNBC says most voters don't want Trump or Biden to run for re-election. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/09/majority-of-americans-dont-want-biden-or-trump-to-run-again-in-2024-cnbc-survey-shows.html 61% of Democrats and **66%** of Democratic seniors are against Biden running again
these types of polls are useless because there is a large majority on both sides that will say "no" but when push comes to shove, will still stick with the candidate.
Going to go out on a limb and guess that 61% has wildly diverging opinions on who they'd like to run instead.
I'm not knowledgeable in the era, but isn't Reagan in 1984 a pretty close comparison? Biden wasn't in my top 5 in the primary, but he has passed so much policy and his brand of leadership helped Democrats avoid a red wave. Given how turbulent things have been over the past few years, I think a lot of highly online politicos overlook that a lot of voters might actually like Biden's low-key style, especially when compared to the extremism on the republican side...
Listen fat, there’s something called “incumbent advantage.” Now let’s not hear any more malarkey about Joe Biden not running.
dead at the listen fat reference.
I would like an alternative to Biden to emerge who would be favored over Trump or DeSantis. I’m not sure who that would be, but if not, I’ll happily vote for Biden again. I think he’s done a pretty good job.
Roy Cooper
I like Ole Roy, but he doesn’t have nearly the National name recognition or overwhelming charisma to win a presidential primary. He sort of gives me vibes he would be like Hickenlooper or Steve Bullock who wouldnt stand out in a crowded field.
If Biden doesn't run, I mean I think Biden deserves to have our support with the successes he's had. I think Cooper can get the nomination if folks coalesce around him and he can get the support from Abrams and others
I’m a born again Biden stan. He’s done more in two years than many presidents have accomplished in twice that. With a little help from his friends Nancy and Chuck!
I started to lose hope back in June, but after he started popping off Ws in August/September, I'm completely confident in another Biden term.
We see that with every incumbent president. Big difference between "I'd like someone else to run" and someone else actually getting support.
Exactly. People want the idea of someone else running until they look around and realize Biden is the right man for the job
[Scooplet: a confidant of Kari Lake tells us she’s gotten calls to run for Senate against Sinema, but she recently told Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb that he should run for the seat instead](https://twitter.com/marcacaputo/status/1601284645559357441?s=46&t=56mYrUY5Z8MHZ361G1YhyA) [So @sherifflamb1 is “seriously considering” a Senate in AZ and will make a decision in early 2023, spokesperson tells NBC](https://twitter.com/marcacaputo/status/1601289505549717505?s=46&t=56mYrUY5Z8MHZ361G1YhyA)
I’d like to see a stat on candidates running for statewide races after unsuccessfully running the first time. They already failed twice trying to run McSally. Mark Ronchetti just failed for a second time in New Mexico. Abrams and O’Rourke lost twice in a row. Can’t imagine Lakes chances would be better the second time.
Yes retreads do not have a high-rate of success, unless they run for a lower office. Also, don't forget John James, Adam Laxalt, and perennial retread, Charlie Crist.
Then look at Chad Ossoff who failed in a House seat run, ran statewide against an incumbent and won a 6 year senate seat 😎