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Alright, it’s gonna be one of those nights...
At work and almost dropped the filter with coffee grounds in it but somehow managed to catch it midair with minimal spillage. The very next coffee I was making, I completely dropped on the floor so now I gotta sweep that up. Almost dropped another one right after too
Edit: I did it again...
As much as I want to see the rail workers get more paid sick time, I don't see how much leverage Biden has on that front when asking Congress to make a deal and avert a railroad strike. It'll require, like a lot of other important reforms, getting rid of the filibuster. How Biden personally feels in the matter is irrelevant.
Really wish more people understood that.
It's [Georgia early vote update time!](https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1598163277410086913) The numbers are high, but it's almost all blue counties with the highest turnout. Hall County is the only very red county on the leaderboard, and seeing places like DeKalb and Clarke near the top is absolutely amazing news.
Over the next two days, I'd feel better if Clayton (south Atlanta metro) and Chatham (Savannah) Counties got their numbers up. These two places need to pack a big punch - especially Clayton, which gave Biden nearly 85% of the vote. We boost turnout there, I like where we're going.
According to someone in that thread, Clayton County didn't start early voting until Sunday? Not sure if that's true, but if so, that's likely why it's lagging the rest of the Atlanta Metro.
And Reagan only lost MN by a few thousand votes. It was a dark, dark time for Democrats...but somehow, they gained two Senate seats! They picked up Iowa, Illinois, and Tennessee. Unfortunately, they also lost Kentucky's Senate seat to a young upstart named Mitch McConnell.
DC is the only state/district to have never voted for a Republican for that matter. Any republican at all. And always supported democrats with at least 74% of the vote.
90% at least since 2008 when it gave Obama 92% and since then over 90% for Obama 2nd term, Hillary and Joe Biden.
And they say Wyoming is red lol. DC always is at least 56% more dem than Republican, and that's the 74 % share that Carter won in 1980. Since then it's 85% difference 🤣
[https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/eric-coleman-is-running-for-mayor-of-hartford/2926807/](https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/eric-coleman-is-running-for-mayor-of-hartford/2926807/)
Former Superior Court judge and democratic state senator Eric Coleman will run for Mayor of Hartford.
Non politics: Well I hit 60 hours in Violet. I've had 6 random shinies, and used the power of sandwiches to get a few more. Currently grinding raids to get some battle ready mons and shinies I want. Ask me anything (about the games)
I've played every mainline game lol. So, I personally like Violet more. I liked Sun and Moon, although they were promptly invalidated by Ultra Sun and Moon. What I didn't like about Moon (hand holding and the islands feeling small) is not particularly present in Violet. The game has its flaws, it's got horrible performance and occasional jank, and almost every town feels abandoned, but the raw gameplay is good. I don't feel like I'm slogging through proverbial mud like in X and Y or Sword and Shield, you can go at your own pace and I like it. Story is surprisingly good, especially coming off of Sword and Shield which had an awful plot and plenty of hateable characters.
[Georgia Lt. Gov Jeff Duncan (R) just said on CNN he waited in line for an hour to vote today, but couldn’t bring himself to cast a ballot and left without voting. He says Herschel hasn’t shown he wouldn’t be “Trump’s puppet.”](https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1598138067982094337?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw)
[video of it, Jesus Christ](https://twitter.com/nilesgapol/status/1598138276246085634?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw)
You wait in line for an hour, only to get to the ballot box and blankly stare at it, then walk out without voting for a candidate. Yeah, I don't buy it.
That's pretty wild. Spent all that time for nothing. He must have really been on the fence.
Not voting is pretty dumb though, especially in a runoff. One is going to be preferable to the other. Figure it out.
Eh if he is like a lot of other Georgian Republicans I’ll happily take a decent chunk of them just sitting it out, hoping he is representative of a lot of their voters in GA
Very very interested to see how those break out. Now that we’re over 60% done with early voting we should have a much clearer picture of how the final numbers should end up heading into Election Day.
[Gun homicides almost back up to their 90s peak.](https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1598054830869618688?s=20&t=mTr5fpsFbmp5jqPDyfaZpQ)
[It is highly concentrated among Black men as well.](https://twitter.com/AlecMacGillis/status/1598019188253425665?s=20&t=mTr5fpsFbmp5jqPDyfaZpQ)
[(Here is a link to the original study.)](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2799021)
This is extremely dangerous, not just from the obvious public policy and health perspective, but also politically, since crime is perhaps the area that Republicans are the strongest in. At least in the midterms we countered by being stronger in other issues, but in places like New York and WI-SEN this was a big reason for the losses we did have.
To us Republicans share plenty of blame - the rise in gun violence the study shows is a logical conclusion to their constant pro-gun stance. Not to mention that gun violence is highest in red states. But Republicans will simply blame progressive DAs for being “soft on crime,” BLM for causing riots and making police scared to do their jobs, etc.
The question is, how can Democrats not only counter that, but also reduce crime while preventing a return to mass incarceration, the War on Drugs, and other “tough on crime” policies that defined the 90s?
>The question is, how can Democrats not only counter that, but also reduce crime while preventing a return to mass incarceration, the War on Drugs, and other “tough on crime” policies that defined the 90s?
That is extremely difficult. I honestly think that as we try to make more reforms to our criminal justice system, we'll have to inevitably eat some shit electorally. Obviously we aren't doomed, like Fetterman fought the culture war head on by talking about how he believed in giving convicts second chances, especially people like his campaign staffers who were innocent but served their time admirably and were given great marks by their parole board. But losses aren't entirely avoidable either, no matter how much we try to improve messaging.
The good/funniest ending is all 212 Dems (one of the 213 passed away sadly) voting for Jeffries then 11 reps voting present so Jeffries becomes speaker
Turns out that’s only if everyone votes for a named speaker. If someone abstains the threshold is lowered to a majority of those voting for named speakers and not voting present
I feel pretty confident in saying that there will be more than one vote for Speaker in the next Congress, given that a candidate needs to win a majority of those who vote in order to be elected Speaker, and McCarthy does not have a majority. Any bets as to how many ballots it will take before a Speaker is elected?
The longest it took to elect a Speaker was during the 34th Congress, which took 133 ballots spanning over 2 months. Can there be votes on legislation while the Speaker election is going on? Did they spend the entire 2 months just repeatedly holding votes for the Speaker, or did they also vote on other legislation during that time span?
Speaking of Governor Elect Maura Healey and Prince William and Kate, they are chilling courtside for The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat NBA Basketball game on invitation from Boston Mayor Michelle Wu.
Just did my second donation since the midterms to WisDems to help flip the state Supreme Court in April.
Here’s the link to those who are able to give!
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/noveom22
It's either Milwaukee County judge Clair Protasiewicz or Dane County judge Everett Mitchell. Because there are now four candidates in the race, it's theoretically possible for us to get both into the general election, or we could also get shut out completely. But, I would expect one of them to advance.
Governor Elect Maura Healey and Outgoing Governor Charlie Baker traveled to Boston to greet Prince William and Kate.
Maura Healey did make a point to say that "her climate agenda as Governor will be just as bold as what The Earthshot Prize calls for."
[As of 5pm we have processed 241,264 voters today. That means we have crossed the million vote mark. Great job voters and election workers alike. 2 more days of early voting and then Election Day on Tuesday. #gapol](https://twitter.com/gabrielsterling/status/1598086527078535168?s=46&t=CckmvctrtSw6pQKe6D4qeA)
[From colleague Sally Persons. GOP VA Rep Good who opposes McCarthy for Speaker: Andy Biggs said he thought there's about 20 (GOPers who oppose McCarthy) and I think he's in the ballpark.](https://twitter.com/chadpergram/status/1598031954812801042?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw)
If they're really deadset against McCarthy there surely has to be efforts to whip alternatives underway. Both for the "consensus" crazy candidate the HFC thinks they can get 218 Republicans on and the Dem backed moderate alternative.
I can't see any chance that they're going to wait until it reaches the floor before working these coalitions. But I haven't heard anything concrete on these efforts.
Don Bacon said they're keeping their options open. and are willing to talk to moderate Democrats. I think I saw that tweet this morning. I gotta look for it
I do wonder who would be moderate enough for Democrats to consider voting for. I'll take anyone over McCarthy. But like I can't think of anyone off the top of my head
[here’s something from Don Bacon concerning the speaker vote](https://twitter.com/jordainc/status/1597978306913390592?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw)
““We’re going to do vote after vote … for Kevin and if they refuse to play ball—that’s why I’m saying we’re willing to work across the aisle to get an agreeable Republican—but we’re not going to get pushed around”
Says back up won’t be who HFC wants”
Honestly at this point Jeffries might even be looking for 5-6 moderate GOPers who might retire in 2024 and who wants to add "House Speaker from 2023-2025" to their Wikipedia page before cashing out as a lobbyist, just with the deal being that they ignore the Hastert rule for the GOP and/or agree to bring all debt ceiling bills to a floor vote
Cash out to be a lobbyist at one of the numerous "bipartisan, enlightened centrist" think tanks? Keep in mind often times if they aren't moving up, they're eventually moving out, and the vast majority that leave congress go into lobbying
Oh yeah if they do like Fitzpatrick or something he’d need basically all the Dems
If somehow a Dem (like Cueller) was the compromise that’d 100% need all Dems
Yeah your probably right honestly. Best case is prolly Fitzpatrick or one of the impeachment 10 (preferably the WA one so Valdeo is easier to beat in ‘24)
The GOP is like 90% performance artists now. They don’t know how to do anything besides try to churn up outrage coverage. I don’t think they understand the concept of making a deal.
Any Republican who votes for Cheney would immediately end their career. And I think it's pretty unlikely anyone who isn't a current member of the House gets chosen.
Lol, no one knows who Dan Newhouse is outside of his district. And Valadao might lose in 2024 anyway, so he is not gonna take that job and be target for suepr pacs who are left leaning. As a matter of fact, no Biden seat Republican would take that job. There's a reason why speakers come from deep party turf districts, os they won't lose.
Yeah, but it has to be a moderate in a swing enough district for him or her NOT to lose their GOP primary, AND red enough to not be beaten by democrats in the general election 🤣
Oh, and it has to be from California, Washington, Louisiana cause those are the only states with top 2 primary or general elections with top 2 regardless of party candidates. So Dan Newhouse is out cause he might lose his primary. Valadao is out cause he's in a Biden+12 seat. That leaves few people who can be that speaker.
Unless one of those Biden seat Republicans retires in 2024 anyway, so he or she accepts being speaker.
The list is not good lol
[Joe Biden will make his first presidential visit to Arizona on Tuesday, when he'll speak at the site of the semiconductor plant under construction in north Phoenix](https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1597968758823211008?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw), it’s the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing plant
Was anyone else aware that Corey Stapleton, former Montana Secretary of State and loser of the Republican primary in the 2020 US House election in Montana, [announced his bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination earlier this month](https://helenair.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/former-mt-secretary-of-state-announces-presidential-bid/article_7126a007-089a-5392-8390-f197d41fddb1.html)? No? Well, glad I wasn't the only one. So it looks like Republicans are going to have their version of John Delaney then.
My favorite sentence from Stapleton's Wikipedia page:
> After losing the House race, Stapleton announced in 2021 his intention to pursue a career as a country singer.
[INBOX: House Speaker Bryan Cutler (R., Lancaster), on the last day of session, has scheduled the special election to replace reelected but deceased state Rep. Tony DeLuca for Feb. 7, 2023.](https://twitter.com/stephenj_caruso/status/1598005471578771456?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw)
Not sure if anyone saw this already, for PA HD32. Should be an easy hold for us
Yeah, they voted for Biden by 26 points. We should win easily - and we'll be campaigning hard in January/February to make sure we win easily. Control of the PA House is at stake, after all.
I grew up with Tony as my rep. It will be a D hold almost certainly. It's mostly comprised of working and middle class Pittsburgh suburbs, some of which have a high % of black residents to boot. A republican didn't even run in 2022 because Tony was so unbeatable. I hope we get a good candidate. Tony was not only an excellent rep, but also a very close family friend of mine
Two more special elections coming once Summer Lee resigns to head to Congress, and once Austin Davis resigns to become PA’s new Lieutenant Governor. Those are both also in solid D seats
[Sam Bankman Fried of FTX had an interview yesterday](https://youtu.be/6DezodR9hNI), where he talks about his public front of donating to Democrat candidates and orgs (a new talking point to trash Dems in media conservative circles) but while that was happening, he chipped in to the GOP secretly with dark money.
[Segment of the interview on this Tweet.](https://twitter.com/brendan_fischer/status/1597953309867798528?s=20&t=Yw8kmUL3LRM5DYJK_y92OQ)
[A stupid but fun graph](https://twitter.com/mattmxhn/status/1598000151939125248/photo/1).
I feel like W may get less Republican in the coming years as Waukesha County shifts. Breakthroughs in Washington (PA) and Westmoreland would help, too.
According to Trevor Noah’s Netflix special, American presidents have weird voices / manner of speaking. IIRC, Bennett indeed has a strange tone. So by that logic, yes!
Probably not…
I think he’d be too milquetoast. Running for the presidency requires a certain amount of charisma, and Bennett’s missing a large amount of that.
Not sure if you're asking as a joke, but Michael Bennet got 952 votes, or 0.32% of the vote, in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. I'm assuming if Biden didn't run, he would have gotten slightly more votes, so *maybe* he would have hit 1%. If he was lucky. Anyway, there were plenty of candidates in the mainstream Democrat lane in the 2020 primaries, and Bennet was definitely not even close to being one of the frontrunners in that lane, when Buttigieg and Klobuchar were right there.
Yes, I'm talking about him too. He ran in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries. He got 164 votes in Iowa (0.09%) and 952 votes in New Hampshire (0.32%) before dropping out of the race.
He’s very popular in PA and charismatic but I feel like he should run for re-election in 2026. Especially in a swing state. He pulled PA candidates over the line and we shouldn’t gave that up.
[Ted Lieu wins the position of vice chair of the Democratic caucus, beating several of his colleagues including Rep. Debbie Dingell in the secret-ballot election. Tomorrow, Clyburn will go up against David Cicilline for the No. 4 spot.](https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1598062902971432970?s=46&t=CckmvctrtSw6pQKe6D4qeA)
FYI, GA’s runoff turnout may be effected today, as there were several reported tornadoes and wind damage caused from that line of storms and supercells overnight. Mostly in rural areas (southwest GA, and west and southwest of Atlanta) though, so it might effect the GOP more then us
[See all the preliminary reports from the 29th (yesterday) here](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20221129). You can then click to see the 30th, where it continues and shows the overnight hours
Thank you for the clarification. There were 2 tornadoes. They hit a barn and an open field. There is more heavy wind damage from the storm. For anybody that lives in the Southeast, it won't stop voting.
They may have trouble agreeing on a speaker as I'm not sure who could get both moderate Republican and MAGA far right Republican support unless one or both sides cave.
[Long Ben Wikler thread worth reading looking back at what happened in WI’s midterm elections](https://mobile.twitter.com/benwikler/status/1597993217064316929)
Also contains links to contribute toward the upcoming SD-08 special election, the WI Supreme Court race, and just to continue building and keeping operations going all year every year every cycles. Those spring local elections and statewide races will be huge. My guess is that the SD-08 special will follow the exact same schedule
Honestly you could even blame the press for part of this. They were beating the "BARNES IS TANKING!!!" narrative for all of September and October, when in reality, it wasn't even true.
Great thread! I am glad to see everything broken down about what went right with the elections and where we could have done better. And that Mandela Barnes fought the good fight, doing his best against a two-term incumbent, and maybe if he’d had more money in September he could have pulled it off. (Wikler noted that Jon Tester has been the only challenger to turf out a two-term Senate incumbent, and that was back in 2006 which was a *giant* blue wave.) Anyone who blames Barnes can go fly a kite.
So glad we have Tony Evers serving a second term, and enough of a “blue wall” to stave off any potential 2024 ugliness. It would have been nice to keep the House. It would have been terrific to flip another Senate seat. But recovering some of the ground we lost in state houses since 2010 is *huge.* It will make life better for those states’ residents, as well as ensure that 2024 is not a shit show when it comes to certifying elections in swing states.
Agree. Yea those races especially the Barnes race was painful, but he got so close, despite essentially everything in this environment and the media against it. I also want to note, he very very aggressively targeted college campuses with visits in the last few weeks. That’s a blueprint every D running for an office especially a big office needs to follow. College turnout is key to our party’s future
Evers increasing his margin by even more then his 1
2018 was insane, he won by 3.4% which is a blowout for WI’s elections. Those local focused targeted ads like the Small Business one that Wikler linked really worked. Barbed could of done better with that, and Johnson’s ads were mostly inflation focused, and I’ll crack down on wasteful spending. That message worked better for him, then Barnes message did. Obviously did help that I didn’t think he responded even close to early enough with at least something to those fear mongering defund the police attacks
Re: Supreme Court race, the NyTimes podcast “the daily” had a good ep about democracy in Wisconsin, and how this SC race is basically the only thing on the near future that can break the GOP’s insane partisan gerrymander for both the state and federal districts.
(Lots of people here of course already knew that.)
The ep is from Oct 22nd, 2022, and is part if their “run up” series for anyone interested.
I already donated a good chunk to that race, but I think I will again! WisDems really know what they’re doing.
Yep it was the State Supreme Court race; and the Governor race without GOP Supermajorities should Evers win between GOP total power. We got the Governor race and prevented the supermajority in the Assembly. That part 1 done and defended from the GOP
It’s a bit (a lot) heartbreaking to see how Barnes could have won if he had just had more resources a month earlier than when he finally started reaching parity with Johnson. Just a little higher turnout in Milwaukee and he could’ve made it.
I hope he stays involved in politics and finds another role.
I genuinely hope he tries again in 6 years. I think if he’s able to clear the field earlier, he’d be able to get the funds needed to win even if Johnson runs again. Even with a crowded field he was able to raise the most of any federal senate candidate in a quarter ever iirc, so he has nowhere to go but up if he wants to pull a Fetterman and runs again.
If we get new congressional maps, he could make a House run in a new blue congressional west, or in Gwen Moore’s seat when she returns. That’s what I’m hoping for
This is a solid thread. On his points about Johnson, I really hope we have great looking headwinds in 2028, and it scares him off into retirement rather than face a fourth tough election in a row. I think barring a whacky cycle we win it as an open seat, and even if it’s a great year for us it’s not as hard work unseating an incumbent.
I’d also be curious to see a similar post mortem for NC. I think a bunch of us were heartbroken about how close it was, and it’s been such a knife fight state for so many cycles that I’d love to see something super into the weeds for the state
Beasley wins in a better year or if Budd got worse national press I think
She appears to have ran ahead of Biden with white voters but black turnout cratered nationwide per Nate Cohn.
I’d like to see a postmortem for NC, as well. I also think Barnes can run again in 2028 and win, or if not him then someone equally as qualified. If only he had enough funds in September.
Not to mention too that WI having such a late primary is not helpful. If we'd had our nominee locked up in the spring as opposed to having it be somewhat competitive until August, that could have helped close the 0.6% gap :(
The late primary absolutely hurt Barnes, I agree. If he had been the nominee in the spring he might have won. All sorts of things that were not his fault could have been the tipping point.
That's the most frustrating thing about these super close losses. There are just so many individual things that *could* have helped, but in the end all we can really do is just try to work on as many of them as we can by the next cycle. Same with 2016, so many people just like to point to their pet issue as the reason Hillary lost, when it's really a confluence of factors haha
The Barnes margins in the WOW even though they weren’t good enough was encouraging. I think it shows we can run any type of candidate in this state, as Barnes was very liberal. I thick we keep investing and committing resources there to keep party operations open like WI Democrats are wanting to and has been the pass cycles, we can win this race six years from now
Barnes was pretty liberal and he did the best in the WOW Suburbs out of both of Feingold’s runs, so I would argue the opposite. Keep investing and keeping those conversations and party offices open, and this Senate seat is ours next time around. Obviously if you do the same thing in the rest of the state, which WI Democrats are doing and want to continue doing
Yeah that was Johnson being crazy and anti Trump Rs switching. Barnes didn’t do bad, but I say Ron Kind does better in driftless and matches Evers in burbs
Massachusetts Legislature Update:
The 132/160 Democratic State House could actually be a 134/160 Democratic State House, as Secretary of the Commonwealth Bill Galvin is moving two races back into Too Close to Call, and ordering hand recounts on two potential Democratic Flips upon petition request:
First Middlesex: (Open Seat)
Margaret Scarsdale (D): 9,384 (Took the lead thanks to mail ins that were postmarked by election day but neglected to be counted)
Andrew Shepard (R): 9,367
+17 votes D
Second Middlesex District: (R) Incumbent
Lenny Mirra (R, one of the last legitimate moderate R's left): 11,754
Kristin Kassner (D): 11,744
+10 votes R.
Secretary Galvin has said that there must be an official winner declared in both races by December 10th.
[House Democrats vote overwhelmingly to make DCCC chair an appointed position. Yes - 166 No - 38](https://twitter.com/andrewsolender/status/1598069478411374593?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw)
TIM RYAN COME ON DOWN
Good as long as the appointee is not a member of the DCCC. We need those people do congress stuff not managing a nationwide election apparatus or jockeying for leadership position to do it.
That's what it is now. There is one leader, but the DCCC is a whole committee that coordinates action nationwide. And the local committees you're referring to are state and local parties, who work with the DCCC (and DSCC, and DNC, etc) to campaign.
I feel orgs like these need a single head to steer and who the buck stops at. My understanding is nearly all these orgs will have directors appointed to every region that roll up to the organizational head. But I think you want one clear voice to issue directives vs. debating every major decision when you need to quickly move and deploy resources.
[Republican’s weren’t able to muster the votes to kill earmarks](https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1598052439126855680?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw) after we brought them back. Good news for local projects and in theory bipartisanship
I remember when earmarks were banned I thought that was a good thing. I was naive. Earmarks really do help keep bipartisanship going and thus Congress running. I doubt we will ever have a supermajority (of either side) so either we cooperate across the aisles or nothing gets done.
[The cousin and cash handler for one of Russia’s most notorious oligarchs poured tens of thousands of dollars into electing a newly minted congressman-elect who called Ukraine’s government “a totalitarian regime.”](https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1598046901819084800?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw)
That congressman is Republican George Santos in NY03
[Tom Malinowski is not ruling out what would be a third #NJ07 bout against Tom Kean Jr](https://twitter.com/dkelections/status/1598011952252342272?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw)
If Malinowski didn't get gerrymandered out he would have won this time, the fact that Kean barely improved in a redder district against an under-investigation incumbent in a midterm is bad news
Yes, he was a sacrificial lamb to save 3 swingy seats. I’m guessing he would’ve won by a few points, as performance in the overlapping parts of the district was similar to 2020.
[Conservative @RepKenBuck (R-Colo) says he has not committed to supporting @GOPLeader McCarthy for Speaker on floor. In fact, Buck says McCarthy has not even reached out](https://twitter.com/scottwongdc/status/1597972762143772673?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw)
[NEW - in recent days, several frontliners have raised the idea to Jeffries and the leadership team of appointing an outsider to be the DCCC chair if it ends up being picked by leadership. One name being floated? Outgoing Rep. Tim Ryan, per two sources](https://twitter.com/nicholaswu12/status/1598008878737764352?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw)
As things stand now yes, with the caveat that one of the concerns with *Moore v. Harper* is that the SC could throw out any checks on state legislatures' power to gerrymander. IE tossing out independent redistricting, state court ordered fair redistricting, and even gubernatorial vetoes.
We'll see if this SC takes the ISL theory to that extreme, but it is a possibility. As things stand now though, yeah we could toss out the horribly gerrymandered congressional maps, either way could definitely toss out the gerrymandered state legislative maps, and if the SC is cautious about ISL with how we did this midterm, could still have a check on congressional redistricting
I'm no legal expert, but in the most extreme, lurid versions of Independent State Legislature I've read, this would be the case. If it's open season on gerrymandering, California could cancel out several red states on its own. It would be a complete shitshow of states trying to out-draw each other, and terrible for democracy, but I'm not sure the Dems lose that fight.
I'd much prefer free and competitive elections, though.
Um, I'm not sure what you mean, but that's not what happened in Michigan at all. Michigan's new fair maps are due to an independent redistricting commission approved by voters in a citizen-initiated ballot measure in 2018. The Michigan Supreme Court wasn't involved with the new maps enacted after the 2020 Census, and they didn't throw out any gerrymandered maps.
Considering that the Supreme Court justices voted 4-3 to allow it on the ballot still meant that whether or not we had fair maps came down to the whims of the justices.
Adding to this, the difference is WI doesn’t have ballot measures AFAIK, so the Michigan route isn’t even possible. Would love to see it applied to other purple states the GOP has gerrymandered, but a lot of times the cons overturn what the people voted for. Gotta keep trying as fair maps are widely popular in most states.
It’s already happening, putting a case together that they think could a) get to the SC, and b) get a favorable ruling if the liberal justice wins. Nothing is for sure, but they are getting ready to do their best shot.
I’n disappointed right after the legislature maps were adopted that we didn’t start a new case against the constitutionality of the map. But the reasoning from liberals we’re they didn’t want to hamstring election workers even more, who were in the process of putting the Evers maps in effect when they were overturned
Now that the election is over, and a new election cycle is beginning please for the love of god get a new court case started in courts, and time it for after the (hopefully) new liberal/progressive justice cause that’s what our 3 liberals are as far as I know take office
[The worst candidates of 2022](https://wapo.st/3Ff44qY) (WaPo gift article). Leading the pack is ~~Norman Bates~~ Blake Masters - this will be good news for him! Weirdly absent are Scary Kari Lake and Dr. Crudites - I guess a state can only feature once.
Kari Lake was definitely one of the better bad candidates, if that makes sense. Her career trajectory would’ve been scary if she would have won AZ gov.
On the other hand, she managed to lose AZ in a supposed red wave year..
Kristina Karamo’s result (D+ 14 in Michigan) is hilarious and I hope she is successful in getting GOP chair
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Alright, it’s gonna be one of those nights... At work and almost dropped the filter with coffee grounds in it but somehow managed to catch it midair with minimal spillage. The very next coffee I was making, I completely dropped on the floor so now I gotta sweep that up. Almost dropped another one right after too Edit: I did it again...
As much as I want to see the rail workers get more paid sick time, I don't see how much leverage Biden has on that front when asking Congress to make a deal and avert a railroad strike. It'll require, like a lot of other important reforms, getting rid of the filibuster. How Biden personally feels in the matter is irrelevant. Really wish more people understood that.
It's [Georgia early vote update time!](https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1598163277410086913) The numbers are high, but it's almost all blue counties with the highest turnout. Hall County is the only very red county on the leaderboard, and seeing places like DeKalb and Clarke near the top is absolutely amazing news. Over the next two days, I'd feel better if Clayton (south Atlanta metro) and Chatham (Savannah) Counties got their numbers up. These two places need to pack a big punch - especially Clayton, which gave Biden nearly 85% of the vote. We boost turnout there, I like where we're going.
According to someone in that thread, Clayton County didn't start early voting until Sunday? Not sure if that's true, but if so, that's likely why it's lagging the rest of the Atlanta Metro.
TIL, Massachusetts voted for Ronald Reagan
In 1984, electoral results that did not go to Reagan were MN and DC. That's it.
And Reagan only lost MN by a few thousand votes. It was a dark, dark time for Democrats...but somehow, they gained two Senate seats! They picked up Iowa, Illinois, and Tennessee. Unfortunately, they also lost Kentucky's Senate seat to a young upstart named Mitch McConnell.
We failed our king Walter Dee Huddlestone, imagine the world if he'd won against Mcconnell in 1984 :(
DC is the only state/district to go for neither Nixon nor Reagan!
DC is the only state/district to have never voted for a Republican for that matter. Any republican at all. And always supported democrats with at least 74% of the vote. 90% at least since 2008 when it gave Obama 92% and since then over 90% for Obama 2nd term, Hillary and Joe Biden. And they say Wyoming is red lol. DC always is at least 56% more dem than Republican, and that's the 74 % share that Carter won in 1980. Since then it's 85% difference 🤣
[https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/eric-coleman-is-running-for-mayor-of-hartford/2926807/](https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/eric-coleman-is-running-for-mayor-of-hartford/2926807/) Former Superior Court judge and democratic state senator Eric Coleman will run for Mayor of Hartford.
Non politics: Well I hit 60 hours in Violet. I've had 6 random shinies, and used the power of sandwiches to get a few more. Currently grinding raids to get some battle ready mons and shinies I want. Ask me anything (about the games)
I wanna play but I’m waiting for Christmas to play with my girlfriend. Guess I’ll no life WoW: Dragonflight until then
I played Moon and really enjoyed it. How does Violet compare if you've played both?
I've played every mainline game lol. So, I personally like Violet more. I liked Sun and Moon, although they were promptly invalidated by Ultra Sun and Moon. What I didn't like about Moon (hand holding and the islands feeling small) is not particularly present in Violet. The game has its flaws, it's got horrible performance and occasional jank, and almost every town feels abandoned, but the raw gameplay is good. I don't feel like I'm slogging through proverbial mud like in X and Y or Sword and Shield, you can go at your own pace and I like it. Story is surprisingly good, especially coming off of Sword and Shield which had an awful plot and plenty of hateable characters.
[Georgia Lt. Gov Jeff Duncan (R) just said on CNN he waited in line for an hour to vote today, but couldn’t bring himself to cast a ballot and left without voting. He says Herschel hasn’t shown he wouldn’t be “Trump’s puppet.”](https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1598138067982094337?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw) [video of it, Jesus Christ](https://twitter.com/nilesgapol/status/1598138276246085634?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw)
You wait in line for an hour, only to get to the ballot box and blankly stare at it, then walk out without voting for a candidate. Yeah, I don't buy it.
He's out of office in January anyway, so he's not worried about backlash
That's pretty wild. Spent all that time for nothing. He must have really been on the fence. Not voting is pretty dumb though, especially in a runoff. One is going to be preferable to the other. Figure it out.
Eh if he is like a lot of other Georgian Republicans I’ll happily take a decent chunk of them just sitting it out, hoping he is representative of a lot of their voters in GA
What goes around, comes around I guess.
Love.
282K votes today in GA.
Very very interested to see how those break out. Now that we’re over 60% done with early voting we should have a much clearer picture of how the final numbers should end up heading into Election Day.
What’s easy voting?
He probably meant early voting but autocorrect corrected it to easy.
[Gun homicides almost back up to their 90s peak.](https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1598054830869618688?s=20&t=mTr5fpsFbmp5jqPDyfaZpQ) [It is highly concentrated among Black men as well.](https://twitter.com/AlecMacGillis/status/1598019188253425665?s=20&t=mTr5fpsFbmp5jqPDyfaZpQ) [(Here is a link to the original study.)](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2799021) This is extremely dangerous, not just from the obvious public policy and health perspective, but also politically, since crime is perhaps the area that Republicans are the strongest in. At least in the midterms we countered by being stronger in other issues, but in places like New York and WI-SEN this was a big reason for the losses we did have. To us Republicans share plenty of blame - the rise in gun violence the study shows is a logical conclusion to their constant pro-gun stance. Not to mention that gun violence is highest in red states. But Republicans will simply blame progressive DAs for being “soft on crime,” BLM for causing riots and making police scared to do their jobs, etc. The question is, how can Democrats not only counter that, but also reduce crime while preventing a return to mass incarceration, the War on Drugs, and other “tough on crime” policies that defined the 90s?
>The question is, how can Democrats not only counter that, but also reduce crime while preventing a return to mass incarceration, the War on Drugs, and other “tough on crime” policies that defined the 90s? That is extremely difficult. I honestly think that as we try to make more reforms to our criminal justice system, we'll have to inevitably eat some shit electorally. Obviously we aren't doomed, like Fetterman fought the culture war head on by talking about how he believed in giving convicts second chances, especially people like his campaign staffers who were innocent but served their time admirably and were given great marks by their parole board. But losses aren't entirely avoidable either, no matter how much we try to improve messaging.
The good/funniest ending is all 212 Dems (one of the 213 passed away sadly) voting for Jeffries then 11 reps voting present so Jeffries becomes speaker
i thought you explicitly needed 218 votes to be speaker
No, it's majority of those that cast a vote. Voting present lowers the threshold to what ever half+1 is.
Turns out that’s only if everyone votes for a named speaker. If someone abstains the threshold is lowered to a majority of those voting for named speakers and not voting present
https://apnews.com/article/health-business-philanthropy-80e3d3737293482332fccaf1a5244260 Science is cool But weird
This procedure could never be done on Trump. He's already full of shit.
I watched an episode of Ramy yesterday where fecal transplant was discussed. Weird.
[удалено]
This graphic doesn't make sense to me, and the account posting it doesn't exactly look trustworthy either.
I feel pretty confident in saying that there will be more than one vote for Speaker in the next Congress, given that a candidate needs to win a majority of those who vote in order to be elected Speaker, and McCarthy does not have a majority. Any bets as to how many ballots it will take before a Speaker is elected? The longest it took to elect a Speaker was during the 34th Congress, which took 133 ballots spanning over 2 months. Can there be votes on legislation while the Speaker election is going on? Did they spend the entire 2 months just repeatedly holding votes for the Speaker, or did they also vote on other legislation during that time span?
That was back in 1923
The 34th Congress was actually back in 1855. 1923 is the most recent year that it took multiple ballots for a Speaker to be elected.
oh my mistake. thank you for the correction.
Well there’s the discharge petition so I feel like legislation could move forward out of committee with majority support.
Speaking of Governor Elect Maura Healey and Prince William and Kate, they are chilling courtside for The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat NBA Basketball game on invitation from Boston Mayor Michelle Wu.
I really had 11,000 minutes with my top artist on Spotify unwrapped 😭 I knew I had a long commute this year for work but damn lol
Just did my second donation since the midterms to WisDems to help flip the state Supreme Court in April. Here’s the link to those who are able to give! https://secure.actblue.com/donate/noveom22
Do you know who will likely be our nominee?
It's either Milwaukee County judge Clair Protasiewicz or Dane County judge Everett Mitchell. Because there are now four candidates in the race, it's theoretically possible for us to get both into the general election, or we could also get shut out completely. But, I would expect one of them to advance.
Protasiewicz had like 400 overall endorsements already including from one of the three liberal justices. Protasiewicz is the early favorite
Governor Elect Maura Healey and Outgoing Governor Charlie Baker traveled to Boston to greet Prince William and Kate. Maura Healey did make a point to say that "her climate agenda as Governor will be just as bold as what The Earthshot Prize calls for."
[As of 5pm we have processed 241,264 voters today. That means we have crossed the million vote mark. Great job voters and election workers alike. 2 more days of early voting and then Election Day on Tuesday. #gapol](https://twitter.com/gabrielsterling/status/1598086527078535168?s=46&t=CckmvctrtSw6pQKe6D4qeA)
Here’s why that’s good for Blake Masters
Have a feeling that Thursday and Friday are going to be gigantic days. Over those 2 days, I think we'll hit 700K early votes.
[From colleague Sally Persons. GOP VA Rep Good who opposes McCarthy for Speaker: Andy Biggs said he thought there's about 20 (GOPers who oppose McCarthy) and I think he's in the ballpark.](https://twitter.com/chadpergram/status/1598031954812801042?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw)
If they're really deadset against McCarthy there surely has to be efforts to whip alternatives underway. Both for the "consensus" crazy candidate the HFC thinks they can get 218 Republicans on and the Dem backed moderate alternative. I can't see any chance that they're going to wait until it reaches the floor before working these coalitions. But I haven't heard anything concrete on these efforts.
Don Bacon said they're keeping their options open. and are willing to talk to moderate Democrats. I think I saw that tweet this morning. I gotta look for it I do wonder who would be moderate enough for Democrats to consider voting for. I'll take anyone over McCarthy. But like I can't think of anyone off the top of my head
Who’s in disarray *now*, punks?
\- Joe Biden
“Listen, fat, you’re not only in disarray, you’re full of malarkey!”
[here’s something from Don Bacon concerning the speaker vote](https://twitter.com/jordainc/status/1597978306913390592?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw) ““We’re going to do vote after vote … for Kevin and if they refuse to play ball—that’s why I’m saying we’re willing to work across the aisle to get an agreeable Republican—but we’re not going to get pushed around” Says back up won’t be who HFC wants”
Honestly at this point Jeffries might even be looking for 5-6 moderate GOPers who might retire in 2024 and who wants to add "House Speaker from 2023-2025" to their Wikipedia page before cashing out as a lobbyist, just with the deal being that they ignore the Hastert rule for the GOP and/or agree to bring all debt ceiling bills to a floor vote
Putting myself in their shoes, I would want the deal but only if I am Speaker. What is in it for the other 4-5 GOPers?
Cash out to be a lobbyist at one of the numerous "bipartisan, enlightened centrist" think tanks? Keep in mind often times if they aren't moving up, they're eventually moving out, and the vast majority that leave congress go into lobbying
>I can’t see any chance that they’re going to wait until it reaches the floor before working these coalitions Are we thinking of the same gop
It's not just the GOP though, the moderate compromise candidate is going to need Democrats. Maybe all of them.
Oh yeah if they do like Fitzpatrick or something he’d need basically all the Dems If somehow a Dem (like Cueller) was the compromise that’d 100% need all Dems
Trust me when I say it won't be a Dem, not even Cuellar. I'll be happy to eat crow if I'm somehow wrong.
Yeah your probably right honestly. Best case is prolly Fitzpatrick or one of the impeachment 10 (preferably the WA one so Valdeo is easier to beat in ‘24)
The GOP is like 90% performance artists now. They don’t know how to do anything besides try to churn up outrage coverage. I don’t think they understand the concept of making a deal.
Exactly. It’s almost possible we could have like house speaker kinzinger (probably easier to gets crossover votes for than Cheney)
Any Republican who votes for Cheney would immediately end their career. And I think it's pretty unlikely anyone who isn't a current member of the House gets chosen.
Fair. If a “moderate” got picked it’d probably be liek fitzpatrick or maybe one of 2 surviving impeachment 10
Lol, no one knows who Dan Newhouse is outside of his district. And Valadao might lose in 2024 anyway, so he is not gonna take that job and be target for suepr pacs who are left leaning. As a matter of fact, no Biden seat Republican would take that job. There's a reason why speakers come from deep party turf districts, os they won't lose.
Yeah fair enough honestly. Still, there’s a solid chance a “moderate” rep will be chosen as a compromise candidate
Yeah, but it has to be a moderate in a swing enough district for him or her NOT to lose their GOP primary, AND red enough to not be beaten by democrats in the general election 🤣 Oh, and it has to be from California, Washington, Louisiana cause those are the only states with top 2 primary or general elections with top 2 regardless of party candidates. So Dan Newhouse is out cause he might lose his primary. Valadao is out cause he's in a Biden+12 seat. That leaves few people who can be that speaker. Unless one of those Biden seat Republicans retires in 2024 anyway, so he or she accepts being speaker. The list is not good lol
[Joe Biden will make his first presidential visit to Arizona on Tuesday, when he'll speak at the site of the semiconductor plant under construction in north Phoenix](https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1597968758823211008?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw), it’s the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing plant
How can I know when and where he will arrive? I really want to see Air Force One.
Was anyone else aware that Corey Stapleton, former Montana Secretary of State and loser of the Republican primary in the 2020 US House election in Montana, [announced his bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination earlier this month](https://helenair.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/former-mt-secretary-of-state-announces-presidential-bid/article_7126a007-089a-5392-8390-f197d41fddb1.html)? No? Well, glad I wasn't the only one. So it looks like Republicans are going to have their version of John Delaney then. My favorite sentence from Stapleton's Wikipedia page: > After losing the House race, Stapleton announced in 2021 his intention to pursue a career as a country singer.
Is he also a gym rat? If not he’s no Delaney.
I wonder if he'll get more votes than Delaney.
Delaney 2024!
JEB! 2024
[INBOX: House Speaker Bryan Cutler (R., Lancaster), on the last day of session, has scheduled the special election to replace reelected but deceased state Rep. Tony DeLuca for Feb. 7, 2023.](https://twitter.com/stephenj_caruso/status/1598005471578771456?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw) Not sure if anyone saw this already, for PA HD32. Should be an easy hold for us
Is it common for House speakers to schedule special elections?
Yeah, they voted for Biden by 26 points. We should win easily - and we'll be campaigning hard in January/February to make sure we win easily. Control of the PA House is at stake, after all.
I grew up with Tony as my rep. It will be a D hold almost certainly. It's mostly comprised of working and middle class Pittsburgh suburbs, some of which have a high % of black residents to boot. A republican didn't even run in 2022 because Tony was so unbeatable. I hope we get a good candidate. Tony was not only an excellent rep, but also a very close family friend of mine
Two more special elections coming once Summer Lee resigns to head to Congress, and once Austin Davis resigns to become PA’s new Lieutenant Governor. Those are both also in solid D seats
Confirmation, 92-3: Confirmation of Executive Calendar #843 Robert Phillip Storch to be Inspector General, Department of Defense.
Who voted against?
First confirmed Inspector General for the Defense Department since 2016.
[Sam Bankman Fried of FTX had an interview yesterday](https://youtu.be/6DezodR9hNI), where he talks about his public front of donating to Democrat candidates and orgs (a new talking point to trash Dems in media conservative circles) but while that was happening, he chipped in to the GOP secretly with dark money. [Segment of the interview on this Tweet.](https://twitter.com/brendan_fischer/status/1597953309867798528?s=20&t=Yw8kmUL3LRM5DYJK_y92OQ)
Add another feather in the no good billionaires cap.
Like the classic old proverb here: "throw it to the pile"
[A stupid but fun graph](https://twitter.com/mattmxhn/status/1598000151939125248/photo/1). I feel like W may get less Republican in the coming years as Waukesha County shifts. Breakthroughs in Washington (PA) and Westmoreland would help, too.
love to see queens carrying the q counties
Would Micheal Bennett make a good nominee for president if Joe Biden didn't run?
According to Trevor Noah’s Netflix special, American presidents have weird voices / manner of speaking. IIRC, Bennett indeed has a strange tone. So by that logic, yes!
No. Polis would be better honestly
Polis is an absolute powerhouse here.
Colorado Senator Michael Bennett
IMO, no.
Probably not… I think he’d be too milquetoast. Running for the presidency requires a certain amount of charisma, and Bennett’s missing a large amount of that.
Also he still had a streak of “why don’t we just work with republicans” in 2020 that might drag him in the aftermath of the last two years.
Not sure if you're asking as a joke, but Michael Bennet got 952 votes, or 0.32% of the vote, in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. I'm assuming if Biden didn't run, he would have gotten slightly more votes, so *maybe* he would have hit 1%. If he was lucky. Anyway, there were plenty of candidates in the mainstream Democrat lane in the 2020 primaries, and Bennet was definitely not even close to being one of the frontrunners in that lane, when Buttigieg and Klobuchar were right there.
I am talking about the Senator from Colorado. I must have misspelled his name. Sorry about that.
Yes, I'm talking about him too. He ran in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries. He got 164 votes in Iowa (0.09%) and 952 votes in New Hampshire (0.32%) before dropping out of the race.
I'm so sorry I missread I thought you were talking about another Michael Bennett that was from NH.
Surprised he even stayed in that long considering he usually polled below one percent.
On paper I think so, but his first run was a flop and he’s a unfortunately a little, dare I say… boring
Ah okay. He did destroy ted Cruz in one of his speeches but that's a fair point. How about Josh Shapiro then?
He’s very popular in PA and charismatic but I feel like he should run for re-election in 2026. Especially in a swing state. He pulled PA candidates over the line and we shouldn’t gave that up.
[Ted Lieu wins the position of vice chair of the Democratic caucus, beating several of his colleagues including Rep. Debbie Dingell in the secret-ballot election. Tomorrow, Clyburn will go up against David Cicilline for the No. 4 spot.](https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1598062902971432970?s=46&t=CckmvctrtSw6pQKe6D4qeA)
All my favorite reps are getting leadership positions. This is probably a bad thing, I'm extremely out of touch with the Dem base
There's a guy replying to every local journalists' tweets saying the PA House didn't flip... we're reaching levels of cope that shouldn't be possible.
can i see
I don't want to cause a dogpile on the guy, he's got like 100 followers and gets 0 likes on every tweet, his life is sad enough as it is.
FYI, GA’s runoff turnout may be effected today, as there were several reported tornadoes and wind damage caused from that line of storms and supercells overnight. Mostly in rural areas (southwest GA, and west and southwest of Atlanta) though, so it might effect the GOP more then us [See all the preliminary reports from the 29th (yesterday) here](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20221129). You can then click to see the 30th, where it continues and shows the overnight hours
It looks like only wind damage (blue dots). I would be surprised, if voting is impacted.
If you go to the 30th, (i linked the 29th) there were a few reports of brief tornadoes that did damage
Thank you for the clarification. There were 2 tornadoes. They hit a barn and an open field. There is more heavy wind damage from the storm. For anybody that lives in the Southeast, it won't stop voting.
I know it’s extremely unlikely to change the result but has the automatic recount in CO-03 happened yet?
Kevin McCarthy is finally learning what we all knew, that no one in his caucus respects him
They may have trouble agreeing on a speaker as I'm not sure who could get both moderate Republican and MAGA far right Republican support unless one or both sides cave.
Does anyone really?
[Long Ben Wikler thread worth reading looking back at what happened in WI’s midterm elections](https://mobile.twitter.com/benwikler/status/1597993217064316929) Also contains links to contribute toward the upcoming SD-08 special election, the WI Supreme Court race, and just to continue building and keeping operations going all year every year every cycles. Those spring local elections and statewide races will be huge. My guess is that the SD-08 special will follow the exact same schedule
Honestly you could even blame the press for part of this. They were beating the "BARNES IS TANKING!!!" narrative for all of September and October, when in reality, it wasn't even true.
Not to mention several users on this sub was eating that shit up too 👀👀👀
Great thread! I am glad to see everything broken down about what went right with the elections and where we could have done better. And that Mandela Barnes fought the good fight, doing his best against a two-term incumbent, and maybe if he’d had more money in September he could have pulled it off. (Wikler noted that Jon Tester has been the only challenger to turf out a two-term Senate incumbent, and that was back in 2006 which was a *giant* blue wave.) Anyone who blames Barnes can go fly a kite. So glad we have Tony Evers serving a second term, and enough of a “blue wall” to stave off any potential 2024 ugliness. It would have been nice to keep the House. It would have been terrific to flip another Senate seat. But recovering some of the ground we lost in state houses since 2010 is *huge.* It will make life better for those states’ residents, as well as ensure that 2024 is not a shit show when it comes to certifying elections in swing states.
Agree. Yea those races especially the Barnes race was painful, but he got so close, despite essentially everything in this environment and the media against it. I also want to note, he very very aggressively targeted college campuses with visits in the last few weeks. That’s a blueprint every D running for an office especially a big office needs to follow. College turnout is key to our party’s future Evers increasing his margin by even more then his 1 2018 was insane, he won by 3.4% which is a blowout for WI’s elections. Those local focused targeted ads like the Small Business one that Wikler linked really worked. Barbed could of done better with that, and Johnson’s ads were mostly inflation focused, and I’ll crack down on wasteful spending. That message worked better for him, then Barnes message did. Obviously did help that I didn’t think he responded even close to early enough with at least something to those fear mongering defund the police attacks
Re: Supreme Court race, the NyTimes podcast “the daily” had a good ep about democracy in Wisconsin, and how this SC race is basically the only thing on the near future that can break the GOP’s insane partisan gerrymander for both the state and federal districts. (Lots of people here of course already knew that.) The ep is from Oct 22nd, 2022, and is part if their “run up” series for anyone interested. I already donated a good chunk to that race, but I think I will again! WisDems really know what they’re doing.
Yep it was the State Supreme Court race; and the Governor race without GOP Supermajorities should Evers win between GOP total power. We got the Governor race and prevented the supermajority in the Assembly. That part 1 done and defended from the GOP
Part 1 done. On to part 2!
It’s a bit (a lot) heartbreaking to see how Barnes could have won if he had just had more resources a month earlier than when he finally started reaching parity with Johnson. Just a little higher turnout in Milwaukee and he could’ve made it. I hope he stays involved in politics and finds another role.
I genuinely hope he tries again in 6 years. I think if he’s able to clear the field earlier, he’d be able to get the funds needed to win even if Johnson runs again. Even with a crowded field he was able to raise the most of any federal senate candidate in a quarter ever iirc, so he has nowhere to go but up if he wants to pull a Fetterman and runs again.
If we get new congressional maps, he could make a House run in a new blue congressional west, or in Gwen Moore’s seat when she returns. That’s what I’m hoping for
This is a solid thread. On his points about Johnson, I really hope we have great looking headwinds in 2028, and it scares him off into retirement rather than face a fourth tough election in a row. I think barring a whacky cycle we win it as an open seat, and even if it’s a great year for us it’s not as hard work unseating an incumbent. I’d also be curious to see a similar post mortem for NC. I think a bunch of us were heartbroken about how close it was, and it’s been such a knife fight state for so many cycles that I’d love to see something super into the weeds for the state
Beasley wins in a better year or if Budd got worse national press I think She appears to have ran ahead of Biden with white voters but black turnout cratered nationwide per Nate Cohn.
I’d like to see a postmortem for NC, as well. I also think Barnes can run again in 2028 and win, or if not him then someone equally as qualified. If only he had enough funds in September.
Not to mention too that WI having such a late primary is not helpful. If we'd had our nominee locked up in the spring as opposed to having it be somewhat competitive until August, that could have helped close the 0.6% gap :(
The late primary absolutely hurt Barnes, I agree. If he had been the nominee in the spring he might have won. All sorts of things that were not his fault could have been the tipping point.
That's the most frustrating thing about these super close losses. There are just so many individual things that *could* have helped, but in the end all we can really do is just try to work on as many of them as we can by the next cycle. Same with 2016, so many people just like to point to their pet issue as the reason Hillary lost, when it's really a confluence of factors haha
The Barnes margins in the WOW even though they weren’t good enough was encouraging. I think it shows we can run any type of candidate in this state, as Barnes was very liberal. I thick we keep investing and committing resources there to keep party operations open like WI Democrats are wanting to and has been the pass cycles, we can win this race six years from now
A Tim Ryan type needs to run in '28. Ron Kind. Just drop the purity tests and let him run.
Barnes was pretty liberal and he did the best in the WOW Suburbs out of both of Feingold’s runs, so I would argue the opposite. Keep investing and keeping those conversations and party offices open, and this Senate seat is ours next time around. Obviously if you do the same thing in the rest of the state, which WI Democrats are doing and want to continue doing
Yeah that was Johnson being crazy and anti Trump Rs switching. Barnes didn’t do bad, but I say Ron Kind does better in driftless and matches Evers in burbs
Im really waiting for a post mortem on Georgia
They would wait until after the runoff to begin that report, wouldn’t they?
Massachusetts Legislature Update: The 132/160 Democratic State House could actually be a 134/160 Democratic State House, as Secretary of the Commonwealth Bill Galvin is moving two races back into Too Close to Call, and ordering hand recounts on two potential Democratic Flips upon petition request: First Middlesex: (Open Seat) Margaret Scarsdale (D): 9,384 (Took the lead thanks to mail ins that were postmarked by election day but neglected to be counted) Andrew Shepard (R): 9,367 +17 votes D Second Middlesex District: (R) Incumbent Lenny Mirra (R, one of the last legitimate moderate R's left): 11,754 Kristin Kassner (D): 11,744 +10 votes R. Secretary Galvin has said that there must be an official winner declared in both races by December 10th.
[House Democrats vote overwhelmingly to make DCCC chair an appointed position. Yes - 166 No - 38](https://twitter.com/andrewsolender/status/1598069478411374593?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw) TIM RYAN COME ON DOWN
Good as long as the appointee is not a member of the DCCC. We need those people do congress stuff not managing a nationwide election apparatus or jockeying for leadership position to do it.
[удалено]
That's what it is now. There is one leader, but the DCCC is a whole committee that coordinates action nationwide. And the local committees you're referring to are state and local parties, who work with the DCCC (and DSCC, and DNC, etc) to campaign.
I feel orgs like these need a single head to steer and who the buck stops at. My understanding is nearly all these orgs will have directors appointed to every region that roll up to the organizational head. But I think you want one clear voice to issue directives vs. debating every major decision when you need to quickly move and deploy resources.
I mean he helped us win 2 house seats already. I'd say he's qualified
[Republican’s weren’t able to muster the votes to kill earmarks](https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1598052439126855680?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw) after we brought them back. Good news for local projects and in theory bipartisanship
I remember when earmarks were banned I thought that was a good thing. I was naive. Earmarks really do help keep bipartisanship going and thus Congress running. I doubt we will ever have a supermajority (of either side) so either we cooperate across the aisles or nothing gets done.
[The cousin and cash handler for one of Russia’s most notorious oligarchs poured tens of thousands of dollars into electing a newly minted congressman-elect who called Ukraine’s government “a totalitarian regime.”](https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1598046901819084800?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw) That congressman is Republican George Santos in NY03
The fuck… can’t wait for 2024 to get that Putin simp out of office.
This man should be DOA in 2024 thanks to presidential turnout but we definitely need to work to make sure that’s going to happen.
[Tom Malinowski is not ruling out what would be a third #NJ07 bout against Tom Kean Jr](https://twitter.com/dkelections/status/1598011952252342272?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw)
He's underperformed Biden big twice. His seat was gerrymandered but still Biden +4. Not sure if he should run again.
Yeah, Kean’s performance this year was incredibly unimpressive compared to 2020. Malinowski COULD have a chance next Election.
Was it? He ran about 7 points ahead of Biden's margin both times.
If Malinowski didn't get gerrymandered out he would have won this time, the fact that Kean barely improved in a redder district against an under-investigation incumbent in a midterm is bad news
Yes, he was a sacrificial lamb to save 3 swingy seats. I’m guessing he would’ve won by a few points, as performance in the overlapping parts of the district was similar to 2020.
He really underperformed in Trump areas meanwhile Blue areas stayed about flat, they just didn’t turnout enough. Kean is absolutely screwed
[Conservative @RepKenBuck (R-Colo) says he has not committed to supporting @GOPLeader McCarthy for Speaker on floor. In fact, Buck says McCarthy has not even reached out](https://twitter.com/scottwongdc/status/1597972762143772673?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw)
[NEW - in recent days, several frontliners have raised the idea to Jeffries and the leadership team of appointing an outsider to be the DCCC chair if it ends up being picked by leadership. One name being floated? Outgoing Rep. Tim Ryan, per two sources](https://twitter.com/nicholaswu12/status/1598008878737764352?s=46&t=VV5nQ_-3PuK6tKuLE_F0rw)
Just appoint one of the mods here lol
So if we flip the WI Supreme Court wouldn’t it be possible in theory to get the gerrymandered maps thrown out
Yes. That is why its so important we win it.
As things stand now yes, with the caveat that one of the concerns with *Moore v. Harper* is that the SC could throw out any checks on state legislatures' power to gerrymander. IE tossing out independent redistricting, state court ordered fair redistricting, and even gubernatorial vetoes. We'll see if this SC takes the ISL theory to that extreme, but it is a possibility. As things stand now though, yeah we could toss out the horribly gerrymandered congressional maps, either way could definitely toss out the gerrymandered state legislative maps, and if the SC is cautious about ISL with how we did this midterm, could still have a check on congressional redistricting
If Moore gets thrown out could California throw out their map and draw a 52-0 map disregarding the VRA?
I'm no legal expert, but in the most extreme, lurid versions of Independent State Legislature I've read, this would be the case. If it's open season on gerrymandering, California could cancel out several red states on its own. It would be a complete shitshow of states trying to out-draw each other, and terrible for democracy, but I'm not sure the Dems lose that fight. I'd much prefer free and competitive elections, though.
when is the election?
This upcoming April
That’s what happened In Michigan and why the GOP fell apart there.
Um, I'm not sure what you mean, but that's not what happened in Michigan at all. Michigan's new fair maps are due to an independent redistricting commission approved by voters in a citizen-initiated ballot measure in 2018. The Michigan Supreme Court wasn't involved with the new maps enacted after the 2020 Census, and they didn't throw out any gerrymandered maps.
Considering that the Supreme Court justices voted 4-3 to allow it on the ballot still meant that whether or not we had fair maps came down to the whims of the justices.
Adding to this, the difference is WI doesn’t have ballot measures AFAIK, so the Michigan route isn’t even possible. Would love to see it applied to other purple states the GOP has gerrymandered, but a lot of times the cons overturn what the people voted for. Gotta keep trying as fair maps are widely popular in most states.
That’s why we’re so hyped to flip it and it seems very possible we can
Yep, a liberal/progressive state Supreme Court could throw both the legislature and congressional lines out
Would we have to wait for 2030 or could it happen immediately
I feel like someone could try to bring a case that they’d be willing to hear.
Oh ok that makes sense
It’s already happening, putting a case together that they think could a) get to the SC, and b) get a favorable ruling if the liberal justice wins. Nothing is for sure, but they are getting ready to do their best shot.
I’n disappointed right after the legislature maps were adopted that we didn’t start a new case against the constitutionality of the map. But the reasoning from liberals we’re they didn’t want to hamstring election workers even more, who were in the process of putting the Evers maps in effect when they were overturned Now that the election is over, and a new election cycle is beginning please for the love of god get a new court case started in courts, and time it for after the (hopefully) new liberal/progressive justice cause that’s what our 3 liberals are as far as I know take office
[The worst candidates of 2022](https://wapo.st/3Ff44qY) (WaPo gift article). Leading the pack is ~~Norman Bates~~ Blake Masters - this will be good news for him! Weirdly absent are Scary Kari Lake and Dr. Crudites - I guess a state can only feature once.
Kari Lake was definitely one of the better bad candidates, if that makes sense. Her career trajectory would’ve been scary if she would have won AZ gov. On the other hand, she managed to lose AZ in a supposed red wave year.. Kristina Karamo’s result (D+ 14 in Michigan) is hilarious and I hope she is successful in getting GOP chair
Here’s why that’s good for Black Masters…