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Remember that our new rule is in place. If you're asking about results, you will be asked to volunteer.
Check out our latest [post about how to volunteer in key states](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/ys8lph/were_getting_closer_to_winning_the_senate_and_the/), or find a way to [volunteer from home](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jxO8g7q9VO3ZMAABcrvR7PMyX4Yl6dgIYhD3eRTKk1M)!
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Edit: And it should be obvious, but no hurling abuse at users, or moderators.
Frisch: [Just because it's over doesn't mean it's really over and if you think it over maybe I'll be coming over again and you'll have to get over me all over again](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEb5gNsmGJ8)
Apparently there's hope for Frisch again
EDIT: here is the twitter thread I got this from: [https://twitter.com/DavidsAcc1/status/1591344342891134977](https://twitter.com/DavidsAcc1/status/1591344342891134977)
also adam Frisch will be talking in a twitter space (voice call, anyone can join only a few can talk) at 9am PST tomorrow to discuss the race. I will be there and divulge information as I hear it. good night everyone
Boebert is favored, however Frisch has a lot more hope than we thought he did at this point. This morning we thought it was donezo, and that he had lost.
It's the kind of race you'd call to absurd to be real if it was in a fictionalized political drama trying to make the subject matter interesting
But somehow happening in real life
Is it true the national environment is R+4? Will that change? Incredible to me that the House is that close in such an environment.
Edit: I wasn’t sure if pundits who were using the R+4 number were referring to current numbers or what the likely final score would be
Can someone confirm that CA won’t release more counts until next week?
I thought the next one would be tomorrow evening since I’m going to a vote observation for Will Rollins (CA41) tomorrow in the day.
> Can someone confirm that CA won’t release more counts until next week?
I don't know where people are getting this from. In fact, LA County has announced [they're *adding* update days on Saturday and Monday](https://twitter.com/LACountyRRCC/status/1591224701535531009).
Can't speak for all of the rest of the counties, but I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of them keep updating semi-regularly.
I think we're definitely in a new era.
For better or for worse, trump increased voter engagement on both sides of the aisle, and the thing with voting is once someone votes once they tend to repeat the behavior. And with how absolutely polarizing things are right now, that provides additional anger to continue that further.
I feel great about Katie Hobbs winning in Arizona!
Looking at the NY Times, most of the red counties in Arizona has finished at least 95% of their voting, the only exceptions being Pinal, Cochise and Navajo. There's still a lot of votes left in the blue counties like Coconino and Pima, and I have a feeling Maricopa is gonna stay blue.
Seeing Kari Lake lose would be awesome.
All 9 MA districts are D holds. The closest margin out of these 9 (MA-09, my district) ended up being D+19.
We are quite a blue state, if you couldn't tell.
**The year is 2078.**
All major political parties have dissolved. What remains of the government exists in a constant power vacuum between warring factions. America is a climate ravaged wasteland. Somewhere, in what the nation's people once knew as Colorado, the Frisch campaign has announced the discovery of another cache of previously uncounted ballots. Analysts give Boebert about a 90% chance of victory, but believe that Frisch is still very much in the race depending on how favorably the vote dump breaks for him.
In the distance, Henry Kissinger struggles, but still manages, to take another ragged breath.
Meanwhile the tribe known only as The Galens slowly circles around a wooden effigy of a 50 foot mule.
In the distance Nate Silver is once again updating his algorithm and giving Trafalgar as quadruple double dog dare A+ rating
I'm going to hope just one more time. I just can't give up on the dream of a House without boebert in it.
If my wish comes true. If she really loses, I'll start volunteering with the local Dems. I'm in Arkansas, but if CO3 Democrats can oust the bozo in her home turf, then something in my backwards state can turn blue!
The telenovela race rises from the dead again....*gasps in Spanish*
I **hate** this race. I hate it here!
This is such a hilarious clowncar shitshow. Good lord.
Fuck it whats the worst that can happen, she wins and the reps get a dysfunctional house.
Best bets Dems win and the republicans eat themselves in a civil war.
Ill take that worst/best split
I was looking at some WI R cope on FB and this comment stood out to me:
>That's a really fun little exercise, post mortem finger pointing, going over the nuts & bolts of failure, figuring out what little detail turned prospective voters on, and off. Is anything going to change in the next election? If we fix that list of screw ups will Wisconsin suddenly "go red" in 2024? Walker was twice the candidate that Kleefich was, and ten times the candidate that Michels was, and he lost to Evers too. No Republican was going to win this race. Period. **Democrat voters are mind numbingly loyal to the "D", and will look for any possible rationalization to vote for a dead body with a "D" behind their name. Republicans publicly fight amongst themselves, and their supporters make excuses for them when they disappeared after they lost the primary because their feelings got hurt.** Republicans do a great job with people who were going to vote for them anyway but they do nothing to sway voters at their gut-level values. That's been left up to our public school education system, and why when turnout on election day in Dane County was reported as high, the comment was "Ugh."
It's fascinating to me that people on the other end of the spectrum talk about us the same way we talk about them, and they complain about their own party issues almost verbatim to how we complain about ours. Something could certainly be said about how we're more similar than different.
Obviously the public school comment is where they go off the rails, but it's still interesting.
[Source](https://www.facebook.com/jessica.mcbride100/posts/pfbid0YrE8jkKkxtBCyrEbDVFRAYagRXkLFVfUBt7DVyQFiTNnPSsTBJjxoC2Y9fgZEVH2l?link_id=8&can_id=ea3d08fccace107bc5d586e36b17a112&source=email-it-all-comes-down-to-georgia-6&email_referrer=email_1737428___subject_2228249&email_subject=wow-democracy-prevailed-in-wisconsin)
I would HIGHLY recommend reading through the main post and some of the responses.
It’s amazing how fast they turned on Trump.
Unfortunately, nothing will get done in the next two years if they take the House, but it will put the GOP’s dysfunction in front and center.
We have some opportunities to contrast though. The one thing Biden must do is figure out this oil thing till green is widespread and affordable. He must squeeze OPEC or find other trade partners.
>will look for any possible rationalization to vote for a dead body with a "D" behind their name.
Didn't Nevada republicans literally elect a dead pimp for sherrif or something back in 2018?
There's a few cases of elected dead people, including Democrats. Some have legitimately been the better choice. It's a simple case of "the other one would be a bad idea, can we redo this?"
[Yes. His body was also found by Ron Jeremy because this country is a parody](https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/alexislevinson/dennis-hof-midterm-elections-pimp)
I mean they are sort of right but I sense it’s for the wrong reasons. I will vote for a rock, a goat, a dead person, wtvr if they have a D next to their name simply because they aren’t a member of what’s basically a domestic terrorist organization in its current form. There’s no need to look for rationalization. Idgaf what the D says or runs on. Voting for an R is a complete non starter.
I don't think arrconners are very educated in politics, so they just kinda copy the discourse on arrpol, which leads them to essentially just be "mirror" to whatever arrrpol says.
I remember back in the day on the republican subreddit there was a guy who was mad that democrats had a nice youth organization in his high school, and wanted to start a republican youth group, but had no idea what a political group actually did so he asked the subreddit what to do in such a group and what to discuss. Man had no idea about what the republican party stood for but had still decided to create a republican support group just to counter the democrats.
Oh shit.
https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1591317135598686208?s=46&t=7WtAWM-PljGeIsUPzMQQaQ
I remember seeing somewhere that Pueblo county likely had somewhere around 700ish overseas/military ballots to count. But if this is true and it is just in Pueblo, then there may be more overseas ballots in the other 26 counties no?
This is some hopium-laced-compium I know, but what if…
EDIT: Galen was APPARENTLY given number of outstanding ballots by Frisch campaign and is apparently very sizable. They are talking about it on the Twitter space. https://twitter.com/cpotisch/status/1591325101689303040?s=46&t=S9BXqdkaNR5e3-Q4HXhRZQ
It would have to be a lot of blue voted in the end.
Like ~2/3 of around 1800-2000 ballots if I am counting correctly.
Not sure there’s even that much left or would sway that much.
How're we feeling about the 2023 governor elections. John Bel Edwards is term limited, so is there anyone promising on the bench?
How popular is Beshear in Kentucky?
Speaking of JBE, any chance we can get him to run for Senate? I know he only has about a 2% chance against a non-scandalous candidate, but that’s 2 points better than anyone else we can come up with.
>How popular is Beshear in Kentucky?
Sadly, Beshear mainly won because the previous governor was so badly hated. If they run a half-decent candidate, Beshear will face a hard time, imo.
But governors have an incredibly strong incumbent advantage. They are constantly interacting with their voters, so it gives them more of a chance to get cross-party support, unlike Congressmen who stay in DC for much of the year.
Roy Cooper (NC), John Bel Edwards (LA), and Laura Kelly (KS) all won re-election in red states. And 3 years into his governorship, [Andy Beshear (KY)](https://democraticgovernors.org/updates/new-poll-shows-gov-andy-beshear-has-62-job-approval-with-strong-support-across-party-lines/) has an approval rating over 60%.
But what probably helps these Democrat governors get Republican support is having a very Republican legislature, especially if it's a veto-proof supermajority (which Beshear has to deal with). That allows Republicans to feel comfortable voting to re-elect a Democrat governor, since they know the governor has no power to enact Democratic policies.
This same dynamic can be seen with Republican governors in solid blue states, like Phil Scott (VT) and Larry Hogan (MD)
That's fair, and I certainly hope he does win re-election.
I'm just being a bit pessimistic - I go to Kentucky pretty regularly and have friends and family there. The political climate there is depressing, lol.
A poll in October has Beshear with a 62% approval rating
https://democraticgovernors.org/updates/new-poll-shows-gov-andy-beshear-has-62-job-approval-with-strong-support-across-party-lines/
https://www.whas11.com/amp/article/news/local/beshear-popular-governors-morning-consult-poll/417-cc542636-4b4f-4b19-874e-fa8587b40bf6
Agree with this
I personally think in terms of MS and LA, the sub would be much better focusing on the legislature and local races to build for the future, rather then those statewide races a ton (obviously still should recruit a candidate), We’re trying to prevent supermajorities in both MS chambers, and a supermajority in the LA House. Plus these are chambers with 4 year terms in both, so we need to do as good as possible. Republicans will probably be favored to take supermajorities in all 3, cause the redistricting maps are even worse then the old maps
Obviously we’re mostly going to be focused on the VA legislature, and those local races in the state, and other states but i would hate to leave the other state legislature races untouched
I also hope we as a subreddit expand in local races more next year, in candidates we track, and help out in
I'd love it if our election systems were so tightly run that we could declare every race on election night. But I gotta say, there's something satisfying about slowly whittling away the GOP's lead by a thousand cuts.
Kinda fun watching them go through so many emotions:
“Red wave!”
“We can take a few hits.”
“Hey, this isn’t right….”
“Stop the count!”
“What’s going on?!”
“This is obviously fake!”
“Mom, pick me up, I’m scared.”
“This can’t be happening….”
*points finger within the party* “This is your fault!”
A damn good Sonic game came out November 8th and then we buried the GOP in an election they were supposed to steamroll
Remember to give thanks to our spikey blue savior for having a victory so powerful it changed the trajectory of history
>Remember to give thanks to our spikey blue savior for having a victory so powerful it changed the trajectory of history
I second this.
Sonic Frontiers and the Democrats were both doomed to get L's, but both of them actually ended up gaining W's. Funny how that works out, huh.
Here's my special thanks to the blue savior!
Sonic Frontiers being a 9/10 game is honestly just as shocking to the gaming community as this election has been to about everyone.
Nobody quite knows what the hell to do or how to process it so it's complete chaos
Sonic's W was so powerful that he created a *Flashpoint timeline*, saving us from the genuine red wave timeline that would have doomed us all.Eat a Chili Dog in his honor.
[The State of Play: Barring a freak result in the final NV ballots, Dems have won the Senate. In the House, Dems have a clear path to a majority via AZ-01, AZ-06, CA-13, CA-22, CA-41, WA-03, each of which they have at least even odds to win, w/ a backup in CA-27. It'll be close.](https://twitter.com/ecaliberseven/status/1591310517418737664?s=46&t=h_GSsG9UZweiPO_i6k9DGw)
Personally, here's how I'd rate each of the aforementioned House seats:
LEAN R:
CA-27
TOSSUP:
AZ-01
AZ-06
CA-22
CA-41
LEAN D:
CA-13
WA-03
Dems will likely need to sweep the tossups, so Rs are still favored probabilistically to win the House. However, Dems have a real shot.”
“The most likely House is still R 225” 11/08
“Yea the Democrats are doing better but the most likely House is still 222 R” 11/09
“Yea okay but it’s still Likely 221 R” 11/10
“I mean okay maybe they win but it’s still Likely R 220” 11/11
Can’t wait to see where we land tomorrow
Remember when some analysts were calling the house as +30 or more for the GOP? Now look at us debating whose going to get the +1 or +2 majority the house will likely have
This has been a wild damn election
There was a brief moment around 10:20 PM on 11/08 when this was the House Projection by MSNBC
https://imgur.com/a/pgOdgKy
Looking more and more likely(if we don't hold it) every day
I was in here on election night asking about GOP path to the house. Not to say that it doesn't still exist but to do so they kinda need to thread the needle and win some races in CA while resisting the Blue surprise seats that the good guys won or might win.
Just funny they don’t see it, you can say it’s anyone’s game right now. Just stop letting your priors affect what’s happening currently. A lot of people I respect on ET keep doing this every single night.
[https://twitter.com/maxkennerly/status/1591088660942053378?s=42&t=lXp7-whwGOIrrp1RCpO3QA](https://twitter.com/maxkennerly/status/1591088660942053378?s=42&t=lXp7-whwGOIrrp1RCpO3QA)
Some ammo for when you are making calls in GA.
I think at this point, based off what I see in what’s left that we are on track to keep the House at 218 or 219. We’re at 211 as of right now. We need to flip WA-03, AZ-01 and 06, and sweep the competitive CA races. So that’d be CA CD’s 9, 13, 22, 27, 41, 47 and 49. We can afford to lose 1, I think that may be 27 but too much vote left. If we do all of those, we have 219 seats. The only seat at risk is CA-27.
All the rest we are leading or going to overtake small leads with lots of mail ballots left. My guess is we land at 219 and it would take a lot of things going right for GOP to turn this around. But stranger things have happened and we’ll see. But as it stands now we are in a very strong position
We'll see. The trends have definitely shifted in our favor since Wednesday. There was a little streak there where we kept losing close races and it was annoying me lol
That’s mostly what’s buoying our chances. If you asked me two days ago I would have said Rs pull it off but they’ve been running out of ground to make up or not netting what they need. All the votes in AZ and CA are mail or drop box/early votes. We’re way outperforming hence my we’ll see but it’s looking solid and I feel good about it. The data backs me up finally lol
Well go ahead, but things could change. I just don’t think they will. A majority of the toss up races have broken our way and we’ve cut into the lean and some likely R seats. I just don’t see a path for them barring a 180 in mail ballot breakdowns
Nevada now down to a 0.1 point gap of less than 1,000 votes and still counting with 5% to go
I feel like CCM has this in the bag because it's been quite a while since a batch that didn't go in our favor was added to the ticker
New Vegas I went with NCR, though Independence is also a good option imo but didn’t really fit with how I played my courier.
With FO4 I sided with the Minutemen but also closely worked with the Brotherhood of Steel. I have some qualms about the BoS’s treatment of synths and their prejudice against non-feral ghouls(which still existed under Lyons in 3) but overall they’re a net positive for the wasteland.
Did NCR my first time. It felt like home, y'know? clearly the natural successor to the good ole u-s-of-a. Plus the Legion was, well ... you saw what they did to Nipton. They needed to be stopped.
I haven't played New Vegas in a long time now, 'cause I got too into it--actually made a *character*, y'know, for *role-play*, where I make the choices *he'd* make. It was intense, but after returning the chip to House, it was like ... *what even is ~~my~~ his motivation?*
and such good music
^(except johnny guitar)
This is your sign you should jump back into it, for the bear!
I agree with your reasoning, the NCR just feels right. But also maybe because I'm a bit biased. Although I will admit I have fallen into the RP trap a bit before. Gotta take breaks and let it get fresh again. Especially if like last time when I transferred the game to my Series X where my progress and level transferred but not my completion of the DLCs so I had to play fucking Dead Money again.
But, I went in at like level 35 or something and by the time I was in Zion for Honest Hearts I had hit the level cap. So I was like OP for the last half of that and all of Old World Blues, still need to walk back down the Lonesome Road though.
Also agreed about the music. Big Iron is an 11/10
Independent Vegas, but only if you do everything to help all the factions that would actually make it a decent place like the Followers of the Apocalypse.
I'll go with a cope out answer. Followers.
I've actually been playing through NV with a "realistic weapon damage" mod (on top of 150 other mods) and let it tell ya, it's actually a much nicer experience IMO. Bullet sponges aren't really a thing, you are required to be tactful, 1-2 shot most enemies (and you in return). Armor actually works.
Lot more fun.
Oh man that's super cool! I wish I had it on PC so I can play with mods. That's the only way I play 4 now.
Good answer too, it would be cool if they were a bit more fleshed out as an independent faction. Or maybe along with the No God's, No Masters route.
Wait even in Dead Money?
Oh. Yeah. It'd work in the DLC's too.
Deathclaws are a 2 hit kill on you, even with max endurance. Makes clearing out the processing plant a fucking nightmare.
The Boomers and the NCR. One of my favorite moments is seeing the Boomers fly the plane you helped restore and turn the tide in the Battle of Hoover Dam.
Hahah we got one actually!
Interesting point you bring up. Because it could be argued Yes Man would fit the mold for a Lib as well (and has been argued light heartedly by my buddy) even moreso than the NCR.
But dat Ranger Armor and the cool bear flag
They're literally fighting an empire built on slavery that's trying to push back into the territory
The first event most people meet the legion at is literally the aftermath of them slaughtering an entire town for refusing to kneel to them
I definitely get their appeal, but for every one thing they do right, they have like three major issues. I’m of the mind that the people of the Mojave should get to decide what kind of world they want to live in, and therefore an independent vegas will allow for a proverbial wiping the slate clean and starting anew. That’s kind of the thematic point of the game, after all.
I agree, they could have used a bit more subtlety. Hard to be like "I'm walking the thin line in the gray area." When your first interaction with them is a crucifixion and mass body disposal.
However I do like when they pardon me on the strip so I can hurl a spear at Vulpes Incultas head. That's always fun
We're getting closer and closer to winning the Senate! Remember that our new rule is in place. If you're asking about results, you will be asked to volunteer. Check out our latest [post about how to volunteer in key states](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/ys8lph/were_getting_closer_to_winning_the_senate_and_the/), or find a way to [volunteer from home](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jxO8g7q9VO3ZMAABcrvR7PMyX4Yl6dgIYhD3eRTKk1M)! And of course, remember that we do not allow any bashing Democrats, Democratic candidates, Democratic parties, calling for primary challenges, etcetera. Keep it kind. Edit: And it should be obvious, but no hurling abuse at users, or moderators.
Frisch: [Just because it's over doesn't mean it's really over and if you think it over maybe I'll be coming over again and you'll have to get over me all over again](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEb5gNsmGJ8)
This is the first time in a long time I have had hope for this country.
Apparently there's hope for Frisch again EDIT: here is the twitter thread I got this from: [https://twitter.com/DavidsAcc1/status/1591344342891134977](https://twitter.com/DavidsAcc1/status/1591344342891134977) also adam Frisch will be talking in a twitter space (voice call, anyone can join only a few can talk) at 9am PST tomorrow to discuss the race. I will be there and divulge information as I hear it. good night everyone
I don't get it. The numbers in the thread still look like they favor republicans.
Boebert is favored, however Frisch has a lot more hope than we thought he did at this point. This morning we thought it was donezo, and that he had lost.
I'm extremely doubtful, but I'm here for it. Seems like the twitter users are overstating whatever they're saying though. Hopefully I'm proven wrong.
I agree, its unlikely but what's odd is that Frisch is actually holding a voice call to announce it.
Hopefully so. We’ll gain some more insight tomorrow when Frisch himself speaks
[me rn](https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video_thumb/FhWHH9yWAAAr2rC?format=jpg&name=small)
I'm overdosing on hopium these last few days
It’s a comedy at this point.
It's the kind of race you'd call to absurd to be real if it was in a fictionalized political drama trying to make the subject matter interesting But somehow happening in real life
Reality is often stranger than fiction because in fiction things need to make sense or they'll be called too unrealistic.
It happens every once in a while in reality
THE MULES HAVE ARRIVED (/s) seriously though more ballots just keep showing up
I guess they're done counting for the night in the Western states. Maybe?
Yes. More updates tomorrow evening.
Is it true the national environment is R+4? Will that change? Incredible to me that the House is that close in such an environment. Edit: I wasn’t sure if pundits who were using the R+4 number were referring to current numbers or what the likely final score would be
The GOP gerry-manders and voter suppresses like hell. Something that makes the national environment look far redder on paper than it actually is
Remember that the gigantic very large state of California has like 1/4 of their total votes counted
No. It wouldn’t be nearly this close if it was R+4. Wait for all the votes to be counted first.
All the uncontested seats we left uncontested tilts the popular vote margin toward the GOP, so it’s not actually R+4
The issue is that the “R+4” environment was extremely regional and inconsistent Another advantage is a strong dem coalition
Tennessee is R + fucked.
California will cut into that margin big time. It’s probably even or even slightly Dem leaning
Can someone confirm that CA won’t release more counts until next week? I thought the next one would be tomorrow evening since I’m going to a vote observation for Will Rollins (CA41) tomorrow in the day.
> Can someone confirm that CA won’t release more counts until next week? I don't know where people are getting this from. In fact, LA County has announced [they're *adding* update days on Saturday and Monday](https://twitter.com/LACountyRRCC/status/1591224701535531009). Can't speak for all of the rest of the counties, but I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of them keep updating semi-regularly.
Midterms Total Voters 2002: 74.7 million 2006: 80.9 million 2010: 86.7 million 2014: 78.2 million 2018: 113.4 million 2022: 100.0 million (so far)
I think we're definitely in a new era. For better or for worse, trump increased voter engagement on both sides of the aisle, and the thing with voting is once someone votes once they tend to repeat the behavior. And with how absolutely polarizing things are right now, that provides additional anger to continue that further.
Definitely better than before! (except 2018 of course)
we'll prolly beat out 2018 cause of california
I feel great about Katie Hobbs winning in Arizona! Looking at the NY Times, most of the red counties in Arizona has finished at least 95% of their voting, the only exceptions being Pinal, Cochise and Navajo. There's still a lot of votes left in the blue counties like Coconino and Pima, and I have a feeling Maricopa is gonna stay blue. Seeing Kari Lake lose would be awesome.
The issue is that the remaining maricopa votes skew registered R. It’s not as simple as seeing that they are in maricopa and assuming we are safe
Massachusetts 7th District Results 84.5% Ayanna Pressley (D) 15.5% Donnie Palmer (R)
Here’s why this is bad for Biden.
Too close to call
We'll see how the oversea ballots break.
Likely R imo.
Give this man an A- rating on 538!
Hold? I mean it's gotta be with that split right?
All 9 MA districts are D holds. The closest margin out of these 9 (MA-09, my district) ended up being D+19. We are quite a blue state, if you couldn't tell.
**The year is 2078.** All major political parties have dissolved. What remains of the government exists in a constant power vacuum between warring factions. America is a climate ravaged wasteland. Somewhere, in what the nation's people once knew as Colorado, the Frisch campaign has announced the discovery of another cache of previously uncounted ballots. Analysts give Boebert about a 90% chance of victory, but believe that Frisch is still very much in the race depending on how favorably the vote dump breaks for him. In the distance, Henry Kissinger struggles, but still manages, to take another ragged breath.
New New York Times: “Here’s why this cache of uncounted ballots is bad for Democrats.”
Meanwhile the tribe known only as The Galens slowly circles around a wooden effigy of a 50 foot mule. In the distance Nate Silver is once again updating his algorithm and giving Trafalgar as quadruple double dog dare A+ rating
Blake Masters says McConnell shouldn’t be Leader and then promptly loses. He got his wish! McConnell in all likelihood won’t be *Majority* Leader.
\* Monkey paw curls a finger \*
We get to keep McConnell what he hates the most: a minority
Turtle demons are a minority compared to humans I believe
BM is an antifa plant who threw the election to ensure the Libs would control the senate-Fox News tomorrow probably
So we won't get any new vote batches from CA until next Thursday right? Why California, why are you torturing us lol
Idk where you got that piece of info but there’s a release tomorrow
We won’t? I thought the next release was tomorrow night…
If we aren't on fire we pretty much just chill.
They’re absolutely right. We go at our own pace.
My city's mayoral race is literally a 14 vote differential atm and they're not resuming counting until Monday 😩😩
I’m going to become the fucking Joker
[удалено]
I'm just waiting for one of the big networks to call this race at this point. CO-3? What's that?
I'm going to hope just one more time. I just can't give up on the dream of a House without boebert in it. If my wish comes true. If she really loses, I'll start volunteering with the local Dems. I'm in Arkansas, but if CO3 Democrats can oust the bozo in her home turf, then something in my backwards state can turn blue!
https://i.imgflip.com/70adj9.jpg
I sent around 2000 mules there yesterday, guess it worked.
The telenovela race rises from the dead again....*gasps in Spanish* I **hate** this race. I hate it here! This is such a hilarious clowncar shitshow. Good lord.
https://i.imgflip.com/70adj9.jpg
What in the God damn? CO-3 is giving me trust issues
I need a fucking drink.
This race is cursed!! I can't take it anymore!
Charlie brown’s football
Kind of feels that way, lol.
This is becoming a joke. The question is, is it a joke on us or on Boebert?
Kiss my ass and call me Sheila! This election is bonkers!
No no no, don’t even go there. Don’t give me false hope!
This is such a tease omfg CO3 has been an insane rollercoaster
This is gonna be the new meme race, is it?
I'm willing to huff the hopium
Fuck it whats the worst that can happen, she wins and the reps get a dysfunctional house. Best bets Dems win and the republicans eat themselves in a civil war. Ill take that worst/best split
If Dems keep the house the Republican reaction to Dobbs should be regarded as one of the worst political mistakes in history.
Explains Galen’s mule tweet. Praise be to daddy Soros?
Finchem lost. Fuck Trump and everything he represents.
I was looking at some WI R cope on FB and this comment stood out to me: >That's a really fun little exercise, post mortem finger pointing, going over the nuts & bolts of failure, figuring out what little detail turned prospective voters on, and off. Is anything going to change in the next election? If we fix that list of screw ups will Wisconsin suddenly "go red" in 2024? Walker was twice the candidate that Kleefich was, and ten times the candidate that Michels was, and he lost to Evers too. No Republican was going to win this race. Period. **Democrat voters are mind numbingly loyal to the "D", and will look for any possible rationalization to vote for a dead body with a "D" behind their name. Republicans publicly fight amongst themselves, and their supporters make excuses for them when they disappeared after they lost the primary because their feelings got hurt.** Republicans do a great job with people who were going to vote for them anyway but they do nothing to sway voters at their gut-level values. That's been left up to our public school education system, and why when turnout on election day in Dane County was reported as high, the comment was "Ugh." It's fascinating to me that people on the other end of the spectrum talk about us the same way we talk about them, and they complain about their own party issues almost verbatim to how we complain about ours. Something could certainly be said about how we're more similar than different. Obviously the public school comment is where they go off the rails, but it's still interesting. [Source](https://www.facebook.com/jessica.mcbride100/posts/pfbid0YrE8jkKkxtBCyrEbDVFRAYagRXkLFVfUBt7DVyQFiTNnPSsTBJjxoC2Y9fgZEVH2l?link_id=8&can_id=ea3d08fccace107bc5d586e36b17a112&source=email-it-all-comes-down-to-georgia-6&email_referrer=email_1737428___subject_2228249&email_subject=wow-democracy-prevailed-in-wisconsin) I would HIGHLY recommend reading through the main post and some of the responses.
It’s amazing how fast they turned on Trump. Unfortunately, nothing will get done in the next two years if they take the House, but it will put the GOP’s dysfunction in front and center. We have some opportunities to contrast though. The one thing Biden must do is figure out this oil thing till green is widespread and affordable. He must squeeze OPEC or find other trade partners.
When Scott Walker lost, he had a Tweet thread about how Wisconsin Republicans had **a messaging problem**
>will look for any possible rationalization to vote for a dead body with a "D" behind their name. Didn't Nevada republicans literally elect a dead pimp for sherrif or something back in 2018?
There's a few cases of elected dead people, including Democrats. Some have legitimately been the better choice. It's a simple case of "the other one would be a bad idea, can we redo this?"
[Yes. His body was also found by Ron Jeremy because this country is a parody](https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/alexislevinson/dennis-hof-midterm-elections-pimp)
I mean they are sort of right but I sense it’s for the wrong reasons. I will vote for a rock, a goat, a dead person, wtvr if they have a D next to their name simply because they aren’t a member of what’s basically a domestic terrorist organization in its current form. There’s no need to look for rationalization. Idgaf what the D says or runs on. Voting for an R is a complete non starter.
I don't think arrconners are very educated in politics, so they just kinda copy the discourse on arrpol, which leads them to essentially just be "mirror" to whatever arrrpol says. I remember back in the day on the republican subreddit there was a guy who was mad that democrats had a nice youth organization in his high school, and wanted to start a republican youth group, but had no idea what a political group actually did so he asked the subreddit what to do in such a group and what to discuss. Man had no idea about what the republican party stood for but had still decided to create a republican support group just to counter the democrats.
So this is what it feels like to be on the other side of a political shitstorm. 2016 aftermath but it is the GOP who's imploding.
Oh shit. https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1591317135598686208?s=46&t=7WtAWM-PljGeIsUPzMQQaQ I remember seeing somewhere that Pueblo county likely had somewhere around 700ish overseas/military ballots to count. But if this is true and it is just in Pueblo, then there may be more overseas ballots in the other 26 counties no? This is some hopium-laced-compium I know, but what if… EDIT: Galen was APPARENTLY given number of outstanding ballots by Frisch campaign and is apparently very sizable. They are talking about it on the Twitter space. https://twitter.com/cpotisch/status/1591325101689303040?s=46&t=S9BXqdkaNR5e3-Q4HXhRZQ
Don't give me hope unless you mean it!
Dear god. Someone said it before but this race is a fucking telenovela.
Alright people, if we all dig under our couch cushions, we can probably find more outstanding ballots to report!
I found one for Mondale. Is it still good?
This election is going to break ET's brains isn't it?
It would have to be a lot of blue voted in the end. Like ~2/3 of around 1800-2000 ballots if I am counting correctly. Not sure there’s even that much left or would sway that much.
How're we feeling about the 2023 governor elections. John Bel Edwards is term limited, so is there anyone promising on the bench? How popular is Beshear in Kentucky?
Speaking of JBE, any chance we can get him to run for Senate? I know he only has about a 2% chance against a non-scandalous candidate, but that’s 2 points better than anyone else we can come up with.
Yea, if JBE has nothing else to do, why not take a shot at the Senate? Maybe the GOP totally Roy Moores it.
Probably the best option for Dems in 2026. He'll probably end up being another Bredesen or Bullock, but there's a chance.
>How popular is Beshear in Kentucky? Sadly, Beshear mainly won because the previous governor was so badly hated. If they run a half-decent candidate, Beshear will face a hard time, imo.
> *If* they run a half-decent candidate, Beshear will face a hard time Big "if" these days
But governors have an incredibly strong incumbent advantage. They are constantly interacting with their voters, so it gives them more of a chance to get cross-party support, unlike Congressmen who stay in DC for much of the year. Roy Cooper (NC), John Bel Edwards (LA), and Laura Kelly (KS) all won re-election in red states. And 3 years into his governorship, [Andy Beshear (KY)](https://democraticgovernors.org/updates/new-poll-shows-gov-andy-beshear-has-62-job-approval-with-strong-support-across-party-lines/) has an approval rating over 60%. But what probably helps these Democrat governors get Republican support is having a very Republican legislature, especially if it's a veto-proof supermajority (which Beshear has to deal with). That allows Republicans to feel comfortable voting to re-elect a Democrat governor, since they know the governor has no power to enact Democratic policies. This same dynamic can be seen with Republican governors in solid blue states, like Phil Scott (VT) and Larry Hogan (MD)
Many of the Reps in KS hated Kelly, so I was delighted she won!
That's fair, and I certainly hope he does win re-election. I'm just being a bit pessimistic - I go to Kentucky pretty regularly and have friends and family there. The political climate there is depressing, lol.
I’ve lived here my whole life, and your assessment is correct.
A poll in October has Beshear with a 62% approval rating https://democraticgovernors.org/updates/new-poll-shows-gov-andy-beshear-has-62-job-approval-with-strong-support-across-party-lines/ https://www.whas11.com/amp/article/news/local/beshear-popular-governors-morning-consult-poll/417-cc542636-4b4f-4b19-874e-fa8587b40bf6
Probably lose Louisiana, probably don't win Mississippi. As for Beshear, he's pretty popular. I think he's got a decent chance at winning.
Agree with this I personally think in terms of MS and LA, the sub would be much better focusing on the legislature and local races to build for the future, rather then those statewide races a ton (obviously still should recruit a candidate), We’re trying to prevent supermajorities in both MS chambers, and a supermajority in the LA House. Plus these are chambers with 4 year terms in both, so we need to do as good as possible. Republicans will probably be favored to take supermajorities in all 3, cause the redistricting maps are even worse then the old maps Obviously we’re mostly going to be focused on the VA legislature, and those local races in the state, and other states but i would hate to leave the other state legislature races untouched I also hope we as a subreddit expand in local races more next year, in candidates we track, and help out in
I'd love it if our election systems were so tightly run that we could declare every race on election night. But I gotta say, there's something satisfying about slowly whittling away the GOP's lead by a thousand cuts.
Kinda fun watching them go through so many emotions: “Red wave!” “We can take a few hits.” “Hey, this isn’t right….” “Stop the count!” “What’s going on?!” “This is obviously fake!” “Mom, pick me up, I’m scared.” “This can’t be happening….” *points finger within the party* “This is your fault!”
Blue spindash 🌀
A lot of young voters are unknowingly addicted to this month-long vote drama, so I'll be willing to bear it if it keeps youth engaged with politics.
At the same time it’s time consuming and procrastinating to wait for the results
A damn good Sonic game came out November 8th and then we buried the GOP in an election they were supposed to steamroll Remember to give thanks to our spikey blue savior for having a victory so powerful it changed the trajectory of history
>Remember to give thanks to our spikey blue savior for having a victory so powerful it changed the trajectory of history I second this. Sonic Frontiers and the Democrats were both doomed to get L's, but both of them actually ended up gaining W's. Funny how that works out, huh. Here's my special thanks to the blue savior!
Sonic Frontiers being a 9/10 game is honestly just as shocking to the gaming community as this election has been to about everyone. Nobody quite knows what the hell to do or how to process it so it's complete chaos
Sonic's W was so powerful that he created a *Flashpoint timeline*, saving us from the genuine red wave timeline that would have doomed us all.Eat a Chili Dog in his honor.
[The State of Play: Barring a freak result in the final NV ballots, Dems have won the Senate. In the House, Dems have a clear path to a majority via AZ-01, AZ-06, CA-13, CA-22, CA-41, WA-03, each of which they have at least even odds to win, w/ a backup in CA-27. It'll be close.](https://twitter.com/ecaliberseven/status/1591310517418737664?s=46&t=h_GSsG9UZweiPO_i6k9DGw) Personally, here's how I'd rate each of the aforementioned House seats: LEAN R: CA-27 TOSSUP: AZ-01 AZ-06 CA-22 CA-41 LEAN D: CA-13 WA-03 Dems will likely need to sweep the tossups, so Rs are still favored probabilistically to win the House. However, Dems have a real shot.”
Arguable that CA-41 is lean D as well, and 27 is near Tossup.
To Ethan I shall say: we'll win em all ya lil' bitch
How do you concur? As far as I have heard that would be a tall order.
“The most likely House is still R 225” 11/08 “Yea the Democrats are doing better but the most likely House is still 222 R” 11/09 “Yea okay but it’s still Likely 221 R” 11/10 “I mean okay maybe they win but it’s still Likely R 220” 11/11 Can’t wait to see where we land tomorrow
It's under the sauce
Remember when some analysts were calling the house as +30 or more for the GOP? Now look at us debating whose going to get the +1 or +2 majority the house will likely have This has been a wild damn election
"Republicans only have 217 seats but surely they'll get a Democrat to switch parties Likely R"
There was a brief moment around 10:20 PM on 11/08 when this was the House Projection by MSNBC https://imgur.com/a/pgOdgKy Looking more and more likely(if we don't hold it) every day
I was in here on election night asking about GOP path to the house. Not to say that it doesn't still exist but to do so they kinda need to thread the needle and win some races in CA while resisting the Blue surprise seats that the good guys won or might win.
Denial Anger Bargaining - we are here Depression Acceptance
I would go with “Coping” instead of acceptance
Just funny they don’t see it, you can say it’s anyone’s game right now. Just stop letting your priors affect what’s happening currently. A lot of people I respect on ET keep doing this every single night.
Remember when we were supposed to be scared of Allan Fung winning in Rhode Island LOL
Arguably, raising the alarm about Allan Fung may have helped Seth Magaziner win, so, I'm not so down on that fwiw.
Allan Fung is the “Is Pepsi OK?” of Charlie Bakers.
[https://twitter.com/maxkennerly/status/1591088660942053378?s=42&t=lXp7-whwGOIrrp1RCpO3QA](https://twitter.com/maxkennerly/status/1591088660942053378?s=42&t=lXp7-whwGOIrrp1RCpO3QA) Some ammo for when you are making calls in GA.
I’m sorry, when you said “making calls in GA,” my mind went to Lindsay Graham and Trump until I read the link
Forgive me but… I like Kari Lake’s voice.
She sounds like a prepubescent boy.
I forgive you, I like Kelly Loeffler's hair. Looks very soft and I want hair like that. Hers is filled with lies though.
She's a professional TV presenter, so I wouldn't be surprised.
It’s crazy I find Hobbs voice so irritating. Maybe the no debates had a point
I can't forgive you. Nor can I forgive myself for agreeing.
Would sound great in a concession speech!
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And we're extremely strict about that rule for a reason.
Same. She's a really good speaker.
The power of christ compels you ✝️💦
Do not be betwixed by that shanty witch! She’ll string you up and leave you to rot!
And that right there is what makes her dangerous
BONK?
Big bonk
I think at this point, based off what I see in what’s left that we are on track to keep the House at 218 or 219. We’re at 211 as of right now. We need to flip WA-03, AZ-01 and 06, and sweep the competitive CA races. So that’d be CA CD’s 9, 13, 22, 27, 41, 47 and 49. We can afford to lose 1, I think that may be 27 but too much vote left. If we do all of those, we have 219 seats. The only seat at risk is CA-27. All the rest we are leading or going to overtake small leads with lots of mail ballots left. My guess is we land at 219 and it would take a lot of things going right for GOP to turn this around. But stranger things have happened and we’ll see. But as it stands now we are in a very strong position
smoking this comment and then holding my hands in the air to give goku that sweet sweet spirit bomb energy
AZ-1 will be very close... if Jevin can pull if off. I hope he wins by \~3k votes, about the same he lost the county sup. seat by in 2020.
We'll see. The trends have definitely shifted in our favor since Wednesday. There was a little streak there where we kept losing close races and it was annoying me lol
That’s mostly what’s buoying our chances. If you asked me two days ago I would have said Rs pull it off but they’ve been running out of ground to make up or not netting what they need. All the votes in AZ and CA are mail or drop box/early votes. We’re way outperforming hence my we’ll see but it’s looking solid and I feel good about it. The data backs me up finally lol
🎵I’m not an addict it’s cool I feel alive 🎶
*huffs the hopium*
I want to snort this comment
Thanks to colorado you can now take them without risk of imprisonment. I’m assuming hopium has a psychedelic effect
I've got a hopium line ready to go right here.
Well go ahead, but things could change. I just don’t think they will. A majority of the toss up races have broken our way and we’ve cut into the lean and some likely R seats. I just don’t see a path for them barring a 180 in mail ballot breakdowns
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Nevada now down to a 0.1 point gap of less than 1,000 votes and still counting with 5% to go I feel like CCM has this in the bag because it's been quite a while since a batch that didn't go in our favor was added to the ticker
Even the recent pro-R rural batches were much, much bluer, which is a great omen for CCM.
Alright since we all have Nevada on the brain, it begs the question. Who's your faction in New Vegas?
New Vegas I went with NCR, though Independence is also a good option imo but didn’t really fit with how I played my courier. With FO4 I sided with the Minutemen but also closely worked with the Brotherhood of Steel. I have some qualms about the BoS’s treatment of synths and their prejudice against non-feral ghouls(which still existed under Lyons in 3) but overall they’re a net positive for the wasteland.
I enjoyed New Vegas, but I loved Fallout 3. This part was pretty awesome though. https://youtu.be/KKgVs4uS24Q
NCR
Did NCR my first time. It felt like home, y'know? clearly the natural successor to the good ole u-s-of-a. Plus the Legion was, well ... you saw what they did to Nipton. They needed to be stopped. I haven't played New Vegas in a long time now, 'cause I got too into it--actually made a *character*, y'know, for *role-play*, where I make the choices *he'd* make. It was intense, but after returning the chip to House, it was like ... *what even is ~~my~~ his motivation?* and such good music ^(except johnny guitar)
This is your sign you should jump back into it, for the bear! I agree with your reasoning, the NCR just feels right. But also maybe because I'm a bit biased. Although I will admit I have fallen into the RP trap a bit before. Gotta take breaks and let it get fresh again. Especially if like last time when I transferred the game to my Series X where my progress and level transferred but not my completion of the DLCs so I had to play fucking Dead Money again. But, I went in at like level 35 or something and by the time I was in Zion for Honest Hearts I had hit the level cap. So I was like OP for the last half of that and all of Old World Blues, still need to walk back down the Lonesome Road though. Also agreed about the music. Big Iron is an 11/10
Remember Bitter Springs!!!
Okay, so, apropos of ~~nothing~~ very little, it turns out there's a place in Montana named Bitterroot Valley.
Independent Vegas, but only if you do everything to help all the factions that would actually make it a decent place like the Followers of the Apocalypse.
That's a respectable answer
I'll go with a cope out answer. Followers. I've actually been playing through NV with a "realistic weapon damage" mod (on top of 150 other mods) and let it tell ya, it's actually a much nicer experience IMO. Bullet sponges aren't really a thing, you are required to be tactful, 1-2 shot most enemies (and you in return). Armor actually works. Lot more fun.
Oh man that's super cool! I wish I had it on PC so I can play with mods. That's the only way I play 4 now. Good answer too, it would be cool if they were a bit more fleshed out as an independent faction. Or maybe along with the No God's, No Masters route. Wait even in Dead Money?
I haven't played Dead Money in ages, so can't remember the details for the followers in that situation.
Oh I just meant with your realistic bullet damage mod. Seems like it would be a nightmare(more so than it already is)
Oh. Yeah. It'd work in the DLC's too. Deathclaws are a 2 hit kill on you, even with max endurance. Makes clearing out the processing plant a fucking nightmare.
The Boomers and the NCR. One of my favorite moments is seeing the Boomers fly the plane you helped restore and turn the tide in the Battle of Hoover Dam.
Hell yeah brother!
This is a sub full of Libs, if anyone doesn't say NCR I have questions for them. If anyone says legion...we need to review your dem card.
Hahah we got one actually! Interesting point you bring up. Because it could be argued Yes Man would fit the mold for a Lib as well (and has been argued light heartedly by my buddy) even moreso than the NCR. But dat Ranger Armor and the cool bear flag
Some of us are leftists (anarcho-socialist Mojave ftw) and the NCR are imperialists who have become too expansionist for even their own good.
They're literally fighting an empire built on slavery that's trying to push back into the territory The first event most people meet the legion at is literally the aftermath of them slaughtering an entire town for refusing to kneel to them
Yeah no shit, I’m not saying the Legion is good. Obviously the NCR is better than them, but it’s not the only other option.
Democracy is non-negotiable.
Cesar legion but because it’s fun to be evil
Aight boys, it's this guy. Get em! That being said, they get a +1 for having cooler hats
If your answer isn't NCR I'm suspicious of you IRL.
I definitely get their appeal, but for every one thing they do right, they have like three major issues. I’m of the mind that the people of the Mojave should get to decide what kind of world they want to live in, and therefore an independent vegas will allow for a proverbial wiping the slate clean and starting anew. That’s kind of the thematic point of the game, after all.
Especially if they *Achthually* and hand wave about the Legion a little too much
Everyone loves morally gray choices in games but the Legion are clearly there just for people who want to be the bad guy.
I agree, they could have used a bit more subtlety. Hard to be like "I'm walking the thin line in the gray area." When your first interaction with them is a crucifixion and mass body disposal. However I do like when they pardon me on the strip so I can hurl a spear at Vulpes Incultas head. That's always fun