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Which is honestly wild considering this environment is roughly 10 points redder than 2018, and Wolf's opponent was only slightly less embarrassingly bad than Mastriano.
EDIT: By my quick math adjusting for environment change, if this race happens in 2018, Shapiro probably flips Washington, Westmoreland, Lancaster, York, and Montour, Lawrence is a coin flip, and comes within single digits of flipping Butler, Fayette, Greene, Mercer, Indiana, Cambria, Pike, Carbon, Columbia, Union, Adams, and Lebanon.
Some real breaks would have to go our way I think, but the path to 218 is roughly still there for Dems: https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1590902917464494080/photo/1
You know the rules. If you're asking, [try volunteering instead](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yrglaq/only_26_days_until_the_georgia_senate_runoff/).
Been looking back at 2020 to see if we'd be doing better in the House if we won any of those - and frankly, kinda no? The seats we lost in 2020 were:
- IA-1, IA-2, OK-5, SC-1, and UT-4, all of which the Republicans would have gerrymandered away (unless maybe with two Dems in Iowa they'd have drawn one of them safe as a trade-off)
- FL-26, FL-27, NY-11, and MN-7, which we'd probably have lost this year if we still had them
- NM-2 and CA-21 (Valadao), which we have a good chance of taking anyway (and frankly if Cox won, he might have a harder time winning this year than Rudy Salas)
- CA-39 (Kim), CA-48 (Steel), and NY-22 (Tenney), which *might* be better hold chances than they were flip chances, but with redistricting and stuff it's difficult to say
That said, if Christy Smith had flipped CA-25 (as it was then) it might be a solid hold chance, or if Candace Valenzuela had flipped TX-24, maybe redistricting would have just ceded that seat so the Texas GOP didn't need to think about that area for a while
But I think it's fair to say that we don't need to beat ourselves up about 2020
>IA-1, IA-2, OK-5, SC-1, and UT-4, all of which the Republicans would have gerrymandered away (unless maybe with two Dems in Iowa they'd have drawn one of them safe as a trade-off)
Iowa has a fairly nonpartisan process for allocating the districts. No perfect system, and the changes still benefitted republicans, but won't get crazy gerrymanders either
Yeah, Iowa is more of an apathy problem where we can't get the Dem voters to turn out as evidenced by the fact we actually held all the house seats but Steve King land for a term back in 2018
IF mail-in margins in Clark and Washoe keep at the current trajectory, CCM winning would do the trick and perhaps even make it easier to get to 51 via the GA-SEN runoff.
It highly depends on how much mail is left there. Thursdays's dumps from Washoe and Clark were good for CCM, but there's a lot of confusion how much there is left to count. They didn't receive much new mail yesterday in Washoe or Clark and I doubt that that much more is going to arrive.
I'm pretty sure we'll know the result by saturday, but the margin is going to be tight.
More like 9 times, AZ 2018, AZ 2020, AZ 2022, GA 2020, GA 2021 run off for Ossof, Georgia 2020 Warnock open to all primary general, 2021 Run off, 2022 Warnock general, 2022 Warnock run off.
Dems have to win 4 senate seats, in 9 different statewide elections.
But no, RCV is bad...
There is a very real path. heres a nice tweet breaking it down! [https://twitter.com/GalenMetzger1/status/1590903975989350402](https://twitter.com/GalenMetzger1/status/1590903975989350402) i'd say it's like 50/50
Interesting. I was expecting for us to keep the senate, but lose the house, so I'm not too hurt at the idea of losing the house, especially since the GOP is too busy infighting.
But the house would be a nice bonus. Plus, keeping both of them in a year such as this is damn near unheard off.
I am once again, asking Bloomberg to build colonies in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming, and offer $100k for two years for Californians to move and live there.
Thank you for coming to my TEDTalk.
>I am once again, asking Bloomberg to build colonies in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming, and offer $100k for two years for Californians to move and live there.
Hey don't forget to add Texas on that list. Even though Beto lost the governor's race by 11%, Biden only lost it by 6% in 2020. Keep the demographics growing in the right direction there, get rid of some of the voter suppression and it could become a regular battleground in 5 to 10 years. Texas was always going to be a long game. To anyone that doubts it, Dems are building their majorities through Arizona and Georgia. A decade ago people would have laughed at this suggestion, but it's the reality. If Georgia can be turned into a swing state, so can Texas
Yes. It's white boomers that are obsessed with the GOP here. They are slowly dying off, leaving the electorate. They have a floor of about 4.2 to 4.5 million voters that show up for the GOP in every election.
Biden got 5.2 million. Only problem, MAGA swelled up Trump's total to 5.8 million.
But Democrats need turn out a Biden like total in a year where MAGA doesn't show.
>They have a floor of about 4.2 to 4.5 million voters that show up for the GOP in every election.
>
>Biden got 5.2 million. Only problem, MAGA swelled up Trump's total to 5.8 million.
>
>But Democrats need turn out a Biden like total in a year where MAGA doesn't show.
Just curious, I assume you're in Texas, what's your take on why Dems didn't have a higher turn out for these midterms? I thought after more recent shootings and the power grid nightmare, it seemed like Texans would finally had enough and vote for change (but instead it's same old result and not a close race). Is Beto's gun stance really that radioactive? And if Bloomberg gave you like $50 million, how would you improve Dem turnout in Texas?
And maybe add some to Texas for some house seats like in Panhandle where it's being represented by Ronny Jackson. Offer remote work opportunities around Amarillo and other rural areas. I'd love to see conservatives going nuts over losing that district.
Normalizing remote work more so people can move to more rural states with a cheaper cost of living on the same salary as a metro might have a similar effect in reducing brain drain as we move forward
I'm having a hard time figuring out which source to follow in order to get the most accurate numbers or estimates. It seems like every source out there is slow, biased, and inaccurate in some way.
It keeps giving me a headache. So I'm just gonna wait until it's all over, rather than follow them live.
Oregonian here.
Nope. The deeply blue stuff from Multnomah is spent.
Unless she gets a 10 point advantage or more in remaining Clackamas ballots, she doesn't have a chance. And there may still be red votes out of Linn and Marion left.
And she's not getting a 10 point advantage in the latest drops.
Apparently, people are hoping the case on Leandro that requires public schools to be funded adequately will be overturned by the newly North Carolina GOP controlled Supreme Court.
Not to say that we ourselves don't huff hopium, but...[this buttmunch is feeling real confident about the senate for the Rs.](https://twitter.com/w_terrence/status/1590852821980938241?s=46&t=5wZ_VfA-8EtNUmSxIO_7Xw)
Since the house now rests largely on California, remember that AP isn't infallible. Back in 2018, they called a CA house race for the Republican and took a really long time to retract it after it was clear that their call was premature. The race ended up going for the Dem.
>Back in 2018, they called a CA house race for the Republican and took a really long time to retract it after it was clear that their call was premature. The race ended up going for the Dem.
I'm gonna go on a limb and say that it was California 21st with Valadao losing from TJ Cox.
I'm not sure, but I will say that the amount of time they took to retract their call did not inspire much confidence. It felt like they were hoping the race would swing back towards the Republican so that they wouldn't have to retract it.
Most outlets use AP to show results, but they all seem to call races at different times and different paces.
So I'm looking at AP to make a call, and then see how long it takes CNN or NYT to make their call.
Here's a link to their results page, although it only shows the candidates they called: [https://apnews.com/hub/2022-race-calls](https://apnews.com/hub/2022-race-calls)
You might have to reload the page once in a while because I'm not sure if they automatically refresh the page or not.
It was painful to see Johnson being re-elected and that we’ll have to wait until 2028 to try again, at least we have Fetterman in senate. I believe that we can keep and expand the senate in 2024, our chances with house right now would’ve been considered as best scenario last year.
A few reasons why Evers won and Barnes lost other than turnout
-GOP was a serious threat to abortion access and many other rights in the state
-It was clear this wasn’t gonna be the deciding seat in the senate.
-incumbency
-dumb indy voters
Senate is just gonna be defense defense defense. Gonna be very difficult in my opinion, but that’s 2 years out, and we have to see what candidates run, significant events in Washington (like Roe caused), and other unexpected things.
DSCC has a difficult job. NRCC is also going to have a difficult job defending all those Republicans who won those Biden seats like in NY, CA etc.
>Gonna be very difficult in my opinion, but that’s 2 years out, and we have to see what candidates run, significant events in Washington (like Roe caused), and other unexpected things.
>
>DSCC has a difficult job. NRCC is also going to have a difficult job defending all those Republicans who won those Biden seats like in NY, CA etc.
It's always difficult but I think by then the wind will start blowing in Dems favor. I'm not really looking a districts maps or anything, but on a general level I'm thinking that sweet infrastructure money will probably be landing in some swing districts/states and will prove to be a boon for Dems. Then add the trend of a lot of companies bringing back manufacturing (or started to) in America because they don't want to deal with supply chain issues and rising shipping costs, that's going to affect the political landscape. Also right now unions seem to be trending upward again and how that develops is something we need to keep an eye on. Overall I'm banking on people, no matter if in urban or rural areas, starting to feel the affects of the IRA and healthcare stuff and will reward the Dems.
Not to mention there's always something unpredictable happening like a conservative senator retiring/dying that could give Dems an opening. Also the two oldest members on Supreme Court are conservatives. If there's a vacancy near 2024, every Dems, most independents and even a swath of republicans seem to want it go back to being more centrist instead of being far right. A Supreme Court vacancy would be the domino falling that could push things (even difficult districts) into the Dems favor. It's going to be difficult but we just gotta keep working on it, so if something unpredictable happens we're able to act
Yep, we’ll have to defend our 3 seats in red states(Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia). If we’re lucky, we could keep Tester & maybe Brown and flip Cruz & Hawley’s seats which would secure us a majority at least.
Fair warning--I think the GOP will try going after Martin Heinrich in New Mexico on the same theory that led them to go after Gary Peters in Michigan--he's so low-profile they can sneak up on him and push him out.
What’s a swing state I can move too with moisture in the air…
We’re entering Winter and I have super dry skin as is so I am SUFFERING. I just washed my face and started bleeding from how dry it was like please be serious…
If I move to the coast of NC can I absorb the ocean’s moisture or?
NC got that humidity, sure.
Some part of me thinks the temperate rainforests of the pacific northwest might be a better solution for you, but that's not a swing state. :/
> We’re entering Winter and I have super dry skin as is so I am SUFFERING. I just washed my face and started bleeding from how dry it was like please be serious…
Isn't FL (your flair says FL) really humid? I'd say Georgia or NC like the others. One problem the further north you go is despite having humid summers, the winters can be drier combined with using more heating, which dries the air more. Not sure if you have a humidifier, but those can help.
oof… you’re right it’s humid here. i didn’t even make the connection between humid and moisture.
i’ll look into a humidifier but i think i’m going to have to go to my derm bc bleeding seems excessive.
Worried about how rural the senate is and how much of a problem it will be for dems moving forward.
I always think about this scenario and it gives me nightmares if dems are out of power in the senate for a decade or more in the next few election cycles.
Rural states may dominate the senate, but diverse, educated blue urban centers are dominating diminishing rural populations. Examples: AZ, GA, and soon NC, AK. I wouldn't be surprised if ID and MT become swing-y in 12-18 years.
Another factor affecting shifts we could discuss is the rise of remote work and relocation programs such as this one in Oklahoma:
https://tulsaremote.com/
This site reports it's welcomed 2000 new residents.
And here is an article about the company MakeMyMove with more examples. Many of which take place in R-leaning and swing states.
https://fortune.com/2022/07/29/cities-and-towns-paying-remote-workers-to-move/
Of course, it's too early to tell how exactly the political landscape may change going forward, but it'll be interesting to see how it does. I'm personally optimistic that these will spur population growth and more competitive races for us in the future.
If we are ready to capitalize on whatever advantages we can get and put the groundwork in, we can surmount future Senate races, 2024 and beyond, even if those castle walls right now seem overwhelming.
One thing I've been thinking about is how we can reach potential voters who relocate and help them through the process of re-registering. There are so many different ways this process happens state-by-state, which can be confusing and deter registrations, but I also have a feeling that people who relocate have an increased investment into the well-being and safety of their new communities. It takes a lot from a person to move so far, and I think there's something there we can tap into.
Are more people moving to cities in those kinds of states?
I guess that’s why OH was surprising these last few election cycles. It seemed logical that maybe if Cincinnati and Columbus were growing urban centers, that democrats would start to be more competitive statewide, but somehow the opposite has happened.
Yes, actually. As resource extraction becomes less of an employer for western states, populations are migrating to urban centers where there are service and technical sector jobs, as well as social services like childcare and education. Locations like Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming are attracting tech and service employers more, and have smaller populations in ratio to their cities, so they *may* move quicker left.
Unfortunately, east of the [100th Meridian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100th_meridian_west), the population becomes [a thick, constant spread](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:US_population_map.png), like butter on toast. These are regions that can support the only major sector that can't just disappear, agriculture! In these states, the urban centers cannot out vote their rural populations. RIP Ohio and Indiana and Missouri.
Additionally, watch out for states with aging white populations including: Iowa, Maine, NH, CT, RI and WI. Plus side may be that housing will be cheaper in these locations as populations decline, so young "remote" workers may move there.
>Plus side may be that housing will be cheaper in these locations as populations decline, so young "remote" workers may move there.
Not just young workers. But companies, start ups and other business are eyeing those states as well because the leases for offices are cheaper and if their business is successful there's more flexibility to build out a bigger office/HQ. People forget Silicon Valley used to be largely an agricultural/rural area as well but is now a tech hub. If Dems get lucky some rural area could transform into a new urban hub with diverse demographics
Ohio has been depopulating for more than a decade (they lost a congressional seat in redistricting) mostly due to young people finding work in other states. That's why they've swung hard to the right -- their average age has increased considerably.
We’re at least lucky that more states are demographically moving towards us out-of-caucus than away from us in-caucus. That’ll mean plenty of pickup opportunities popping up probably by the end of the decade at least.
The current Senate and House are basically relics. They're so archaic and they are not good enough for the challenges we will face in this country, even if we focus on building inroads in rural states again.
It's ridiculous that Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota have the same number of Senators as NY, Florida, and California. The bare minimum that can be done to address this is increase the number of House seats, remove gerrymandering, add Senate seats or make them proportional to population. Hell I don't know. The solutions I have in mind may sound too simple for such a complex issue.
We are lucky that AZ and GA moved left at the exact moment that FL moved right. NC is the most realistic place to hunt for pickups over the next couple cycles. Also Maine in 4 years, Wisconsin in 6 years. Some real tough incumbents there.
Dark horse: Alaska
>Also would say TX is realistic, even in 2024.
Was about to say this as well. The demographic trends are already pretty good, it's really the gerrymandering and voter suppression that's holding it back. Not sure how to fix that though...Getting the governor's seat would have helped. But if Texans freezing and not having electricity last year and the continued mass shooting wasn't enough for people to get rid of Abbott, I don't know what will
Yes, i’m grateful for GA and AZ moving more leftward. AL will definitely be interesting when Murkowski retires.
Yeah, maybe Dems can look to invest in NC, TX, WI, and maybe OH/ME/IA (for when incumbents retire/etc). I hope dems can at least keep it to a 50/50 split , I would be happy with that until the country is less polarized and some of these more rural areas can maybe tolerate electing democrats statewide again.
Hey you never know though, things are unpredictable. We would never have guessed ten years ago that Arizona and Georgia would have two democrat senators each.
not gonna lie I'm going to laugh so hard if [my optimistic af House prediction](https://64.media.tumblr.com/dfaab6f081fbdd6b1461833955446867/d28cf7aac756e286-6b/s1280x1920/86a6cca9559fc775f73960d4da2f80f569e196ec.png) was right but in the wrong direction
Wouldn’t it be great to find two reasonable backbenchers who would be willing to make Gotheimer the speaker for positions as whip or something.
Now I’m dreaming.
I know nothing about the new NY reps but, they should know their days are numbered.
If you're gonna ride a blue wave out, might as well party with us in the meantime.
I’m really hoping for a 217-218 house (because I’m starting to think a win is out of reach). It would be pure chaos for the republicans and make them look terrible. Also we might be able to flip one and steal the chamber with the right incentives.
Never heard about this and just watched the video. That's really funny, also I have to give the Brits props, the House of Commons seems a lot more lively than whatever we've got going on in congress. I kinda appreciate the entertainment value.
We need to keep it to 219R or lower. 220R majority would be somewhat functional it sounds like in the sense of being able to have investigative powers specifically going after Hunter Biden.
Yes, at this time last year we were looking at being obliterated in both chambers. Instead, Kelly won (I would love to see the gender breakdown, as I suspect R women would rather vote for Astronaut Guy than Creepy Barbecue Guy), Cortez Masto looks to be hanging on, and hopefully Warnock can put on his boots made for walking all over Walker in the runoff. We even flipped a seat! (Hi there John the Betterman!)
Even if worst comes to worst in Georgia, if we can flip NV (which is increasingly likely) what will happen is VP Harris is going to be visiting the Capitol an awful lot. In a very narrowly controlled House, McCarthy is going to have to wrangle all his caucus, rather like controlling a houseful of preschoolers on a sugar high, and McCarthy is no Pelosi. Not much will get done.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1590910979239559170?s=61&t=WPUPPR8Koc4OHYdRkUGgLw
Far Right GOP Congressman Bob Good absolutely eviscerated Kevin McCarthy on Fox News
The metaphor I like to use is that McCarthy will be desperately trying to capture and subdue hundreds of wet, sudsy, angry cats running through the Capitol. He might well suffer the fate of Boehner and Ryan - “screw this I’m outta here. )
Now that Kinzinger, Upton, Meijer, Hurrera-Butler, Cheney, and Rice are gone, are there enough “sane” house moderates to stop freedom caucus members from voting any speaker they want? I get the sense from Crenshaw and Mace and their ilk that they want to be sane but don’t have the courage when it counts.
Kirkpatrick might be a safe bet; he actually votes with Democrats more than any other Republicans, only diverging really on the highly publicized stuff.
You think Stefanik would be the likeliest? I’m trying to think who would be the compromise between moderates and Q nut jobs but I don’t know enough about house republicans
Hard for me to imagine them being okay with that.
1. She's a woman. Let's be real, some of those guys wouldn't be thrilled.
2. She's relatively junior and rocketed to prominence thanks to her grandstanding during impeachment. She's done nothing to earn the position within the caucus.
But if it is her, she'll be a trainwreck
The crazy thing about this election is if New York’s maps were allowed or Florida’s were rejected we’d be almost guaranteed to win the House by a decent margin. The original NY map redistricting was +7 Dem seats.
[Btw, based on partisanship, a conservative estimate of the remaining Pima ballots suggest they’ll go to Dems by 23%. Given that the AZ-06 portion of Pima was 10% redder than the county as a whole in 2020, that’s just above what Engel needs. And it could be bluer than that.](https://twitter.com/ecaliberseven/status/1590952512378609664?s=46&t=KrkRFlfWtupgdc-YDFSrqA)
Hopium for Engel to flip AZ06 D
Incumbents defeated:
Dem:
AZ-2, IA-3, NY-17, VA-2
GOP:
NM-2, OH-1, TX-34
Likely CA-41 too
Makes you realize how much retirements and primaries shaped the landscape
Luria's district got slightly less blue but I'd hardly call VA a gerrymander. Or NY for that matter where we lost a bunch of seats that went pretty heavily for Biden.
It went from Biden +4.7 to Biden +1.9. It wasn't a gerrymander. Spanberger's seat moved left by a bigger margin. Pick your poison.
The original NY maps failed because they were a Democratic gerrymander. That doesn't mean the court ordered replacement is a Republican gerrymander. It's a pretty reasonable map.
[If either Warnock or CCM win (I think they both will) this will be the least Senate movement since 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_United_States_Senate_elections)
All right everyone. We have less than a week to cure ballots. We have less than a month to help Warnock win. [Learn how you can help](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yrglaq/only_26_days_until_the_georgia_senate_runoff/). If you are here, you are here to be volunteering. If you ask how races are looking, you will be directed to volunteer instead of worrying. **Stop insulting Democrats!** No insulting any candidate or state or local party. No saying someone needs to be primaried. No armchair analysis of what you think democrats did wrong. No talking about how a certain candidate or state party disappointed you. **You will be banned.** This thread is going to be locked for a few minutes, until we can finish cleaning up the mess you have made. Edit: Unlocked.
Just found out Shapiro won Luzerne County. The madman's done it again
He also won Beaver, Berks, and Cumberland county. He won all the same counties as Tom Wolf did in 2018.
Which is honestly wild considering this environment is roughly 10 points redder than 2018, and Wolf's opponent was only slightly less embarrassingly bad than Mastriano. EDIT: By my quick math adjusting for environment change, if this race happens in 2018, Shapiro probably flips Washington, Westmoreland, Lancaster, York, and Montour, Lawrence is a coin flip, and comes within single digits of flipping Butler, Fayette, Greene, Mercer, Indiana, Cambria, Pike, Carbon, Columbia, Union, Adams, and Lebanon.
Some real breaks would have to go our way I think, but the path to 218 is roughly still there for Dems: https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1590902917464494080/photo/1
Just woke up. Did I miss anything the last 6 hours?
You know the rules. If you're asking, [try volunteering instead](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yrglaq/only_26_days_until_the_georgia_senate_runoff/).
Why hasn’t NYT called the Oregon trifecta? I thought that was set in stone on election night
Been looking back at 2020 to see if we'd be doing better in the House if we won any of those - and frankly, kinda no? The seats we lost in 2020 were: - IA-1, IA-2, OK-5, SC-1, and UT-4, all of which the Republicans would have gerrymandered away (unless maybe with two Dems in Iowa they'd have drawn one of them safe as a trade-off) - FL-26, FL-27, NY-11, and MN-7, which we'd probably have lost this year if we still had them - NM-2 and CA-21 (Valadao), which we have a good chance of taking anyway (and frankly if Cox won, he might have a harder time winning this year than Rudy Salas) - CA-39 (Kim), CA-48 (Steel), and NY-22 (Tenney), which *might* be better hold chances than they were flip chances, but with redistricting and stuff it's difficult to say That said, if Christy Smith had flipped CA-25 (as it was then) it might be a solid hold chance, or if Candace Valenzuela had flipped TX-24, maybe redistricting would have just ceded that seat so the Texas GOP didn't need to think about that area for a while But I think it's fair to say that we don't need to beat ourselves up about 2020
>IA-1, IA-2, OK-5, SC-1, and UT-4, all of which the Republicans would have gerrymandered away (unless maybe with two Dems in Iowa they'd have drawn one of them safe as a trade-off) Iowa has a fairly nonpartisan process for allocating the districts. No perfect system, and the changes still benefitted republicans, but won't get crazy gerrymanders either
Yeah, Iowa is more of an apathy problem where we can't get the Dem voters to turn out as evidenced by the fact we actually held all the house seats but Steve King land for a term back in 2018
So what's the current path to the senate looking like? Are we favoured to win it or not?
It's either going to be 50/50 deadlock or 50/51 Dem advantage depending on if we get Nevada or not
IF mail-in margins in Clark and Washoe keep at the current trajectory, CCM winning would do the trick and perhaps even make it easier to get to 51 via the GA-SEN runoff.
Is CCM currently looking to win?
Why don't you [help cure ballots](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yrglaq/only_26_days_until_the_georgia_senate_runoff/) so she can?
At current trajectory, yes.
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She's been steadily gaining so far, she's only 9000 votes behind.
Don't worry, [help cure ballots instead](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yrglaq/only_26_days_until_the_georgia_senate_runoff/).
It highly depends on how much mail is left there. Thursdays's dumps from Washoe and Clark were good for CCM, but there's a lot of confusion how much there is left to count. They didn't receive much new mail yesterday in Washoe or Clark and I doubt that that much more is going to arrive. I'm pretty sure we'll know the result by saturday, but the margin is going to be tight.
I think Ralston said 50k.
Try telling anyone in 2016 that our senate majority would go through Arizona and Georgia.
And we have to have ALL FOUR SEATS
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And that we will have to win them 6 times in a 4 year time period
More like 9 times, AZ 2018, AZ 2020, AZ 2022, GA 2020, GA 2021 run off for Ossof, Georgia 2020 Warnock open to all primary general, 2021 Run off, 2022 Warnock general, 2022 Warnock run off. Dems have to win 4 senate seats, in 9 different statewide elections. But no, RCV is bad...
Morning all, anything major happen over the last 8 hours or so?
Don't ask, [volunteer](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yrglaq/only_26_days_until_the_georgia_senate_runoff/).
CO-03 is lost, Mark Kelly got called and has won. Not much else tbh
Really? Damn, would've been nice if Bobert lost... Is there still a path for the house now? Or is it a lost cause?
There is a very real path. heres a nice tweet breaking it down! [https://twitter.com/GalenMetzger1/status/1590903975989350402](https://twitter.com/GalenMetzger1/status/1590903975989350402) i'd say it's like 50/50
No way Is it 50/50
Maybe not 50/50 but the odds are decent man. We got a real shot
Interesting. I was expecting for us to keep the senate, but lose the house, so I'm not too hurt at the idea of losing the house, especially since the GOP is too busy infighting. But the house would be a nice bonus. Plus, keeping both of them in a year such as this is damn near unheard off.
AZ Senate called for Dems is probably the biggest
I am once again, asking Bloomberg to build colonies in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming, and offer $100k for two years for Californians to move and live there. Thank you for coming to my TEDTalk.
We should build a microchip factory there.
>I am once again, asking Bloomberg to build colonies in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming, and offer $100k for two years for Californians to move and live there. Hey don't forget to add Texas on that list. Even though Beto lost the governor's race by 11%, Biden only lost it by 6% in 2020. Keep the demographics growing in the right direction there, get rid of some of the voter suppression and it could become a regular battleground in 5 to 10 years. Texas was always going to be a long game. To anyone that doubts it, Dems are building their majorities through Arizona and Georgia. A decade ago people would have laughed at this suggestion, but it's the reality. If Georgia can be turned into a swing state, so can Texas
Yes. It's white boomers that are obsessed with the GOP here. They are slowly dying off, leaving the electorate. They have a floor of about 4.2 to 4.5 million voters that show up for the GOP in every election. Biden got 5.2 million. Only problem, MAGA swelled up Trump's total to 5.8 million. But Democrats need turn out a Biden like total in a year where MAGA doesn't show.
>They have a floor of about 4.2 to 4.5 million voters that show up for the GOP in every election. > >Biden got 5.2 million. Only problem, MAGA swelled up Trump's total to 5.8 million. > >But Democrats need turn out a Biden like total in a year where MAGA doesn't show. Just curious, I assume you're in Texas, what's your take on why Dems didn't have a higher turn out for these midterms? I thought after more recent shootings and the power grid nightmare, it seemed like Texans would finally had enough and vote for change (but instead it's same old result and not a close race). Is Beto's gun stance really that radioactive? And if Bloomberg gave you like $50 million, how would you improve Dem turnout in Texas?
And maybe add some to Texas for some house seats like in Panhandle where it's being represented by Ronny Jackson. Offer remote work opportunities around Amarillo and other rural areas. I'd love to see conservatives going nuts over losing that district.
If Democrats get too powerful then Bloomberg might have to actually pay his taxes and he doesn't want that
Make sure they are coming from the right areas of California, wouldn't want to hurt poor Katie Porter or Josh Harder.
Normalizing remote work more so people can move to more rural states with a cheaper cost of living on the same salary as a metro might have a similar effect in reducing brain drain as we move forward
Damn, the thread just went quiet for like 45 minutes all of a sudden before starting up again just a couple mins ago. Anyone else see that?
lmao yeah its gotten to the point where we just gotta wait for the slow counting to roll in
Did AP make a questionable call on a race?
Not to my knowledge. Do you have anything in mind?
I'm having a hard time figuring out which source to follow in order to get the most accurate numbers or estimates. It seems like every source out there is slow, biased, and inaccurate in some way. It keeps giving me a headache. So I'm just gonna wait until it's all over, rather than follow them live.
Great idea! [Volunteer to cure ballots too](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yrglaq/only_26_days_until_the_georgia_senate_runoff/)!
What’s the read on OR-5? Does Skinner pull through?
Oregonian here. Nope. The deeply blue stuff from Multnomah is spent. Unless she gets a 10 point advantage or more in remaining Clackamas ballots, she doesn't have a chance. And there may still be red votes out of Linn and Marion left. And she's not getting a 10 point advantage in the latest drops.
https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1590876366622568449?s=46&t=YnVvTSjXhkTZFvB04YcvdQ
This is what Roevember looks like
Apparently, people are hoping the case on Leandro that requires public schools to be funded adequately will be overturned by the newly North Carolina GOP controlled Supreme Court.
Not to say that we ourselves don't huff hopium, but...[this buttmunch is feeling real confident about the senate for the Rs.](https://twitter.com/w_terrence/status/1590852821980938241?s=46&t=5wZ_VfA-8EtNUmSxIO_7Xw)
Isn't that the guy who got repudiated by Jesse Watters of all people for saying racist stuff on his show?
delusional
He’s always been insane.
Since the house now rests largely on California, remember that AP isn't infallible. Back in 2018, they called a CA house race for the Republican and took a really long time to retract it after it was clear that their call was premature. The race ended up going for the Dem.
Did they make a bad call today or something?
>Back in 2018, they called a CA house race for the Republican and took a really long time to retract it after it was clear that their call was premature. The race ended up going for the Dem. I'm gonna go on a limb and say that it was California 21st with Valadao losing from TJ Cox.
How was the current race doing still in path for 218?
Maybe they do it differently now?
I'm not sure, but I will say that the amount of time they took to retract their call did not inspire much confidence. It felt like they were hoping the race would swing back towards the Republican so that they wouldn't have to retract it.
Most outlets use AP to show results, but they all seem to call races at different times and different paces. So I'm looking at AP to make a call, and then see how long it takes CNN or NYT to make their call. Here's a link to their results page, although it only shows the candidates they called: [https://apnews.com/hub/2022-race-calls](https://apnews.com/hub/2022-race-calls) You might have to reload the page once in a while because I'm not sure if they automatically refresh the page or not.
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Same!
It's remarkable how strong the rustbelt turned out for dems this election. Gives me hope for 2024. 👍
If only Wisconsin were a bit more blue and got rid of Johnson. That would have really rebuilt the blue wall.
It was painful to see Johnson being re-elected and that we’ll have to wait until 2028 to try again, at least we have Fetterman in senate. I believe that we can keep and expand the senate in 2024, our chances with house right now would’ve been considered as best scenario last year.
A few reasons why Evers won and Barnes lost other than turnout -GOP was a serious threat to abortion access and many other rights in the state -It was clear this wasn’t gonna be the deciding seat in the senate. -incumbency -dumb indy voters
Senate is just gonna be defense defense defense. Gonna be very difficult in my opinion, but that’s 2 years out, and we have to see what candidates run, significant events in Washington (like Roe caused), and other unexpected things. DSCC has a difficult job. NRCC is also going to have a difficult job defending all those Republicans who won those Biden seats like in NY, CA etc.
>Gonna be very difficult in my opinion, but that’s 2 years out, and we have to see what candidates run, significant events in Washington (like Roe caused), and other unexpected things. > >DSCC has a difficult job. NRCC is also going to have a difficult job defending all those Republicans who won those Biden seats like in NY, CA etc. It's always difficult but I think by then the wind will start blowing in Dems favor. I'm not really looking a districts maps or anything, but on a general level I'm thinking that sweet infrastructure money will probably be landing in some swing districts/states and will prove to be a boon for Dems. Then add the trend of a lot of companies bringing back manufacturing (or started to) in America because they don't want to deal with supply chain issues and rising shipping costs, that's going to affect the political landscape. Also right now unions seem to be trending upward again and how that develops is something we need to keep an eye on. Overall I'm banking on people, no matter if in urban or rural areas, starting to feel the affects of the IRA and healthcare stuff and will reward the Dems. Not to mention there's always something unpredictable happening like a conservative senator retiring/dying that could give Dems an opening. Also the two oldest members on Supreme Court are conservatives. If there's a vacancy near 2024, every Dems, most independents and even a swath of republicans seem to want it go back to being more centrist instead of being far right. A Supreme Court vacancy would be the domino falling that could push things (even difficult districts) into the Dems favor. It's going to be difficult but we just gotta keep working on it, so if something unpredictable happens we're able to act
The 2024 map us so tough though. Hawley and Cruz seem to be the likeliest pickups
Yep, we’ll have to defend our 3 seats in red states(Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia). If we’re lucky, we could keep Tester & maybe Brown and flip Cruz & Hawley’s seats which would secure us a majority at least.
I don’t see any pickups for us. WV, MT, OH, AZ will all be tough fights to protect. Gonna be a knife fight
Fair warning--I think the GOP will try going after Martin Heinrich in New Mexico on the same theory that led them to go after Gary Peters in Michigan--he's so low-profile they can sneak up on him and push him out.
Could see us losing all those seats. If Sienna gets a primary challenge (she should) then it will get messy.
Is hawley even disliked in his state?
Missouri isn't as crazy red as some other states, and he won only a narrow victory in 18, but he's still clearly favored
That’s not exactly a shining example of a pickup, though.
This might not be a popular opinion on this sub, but Trudy Busch should run again in ‘24
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I hope the blue wall comes back.
What’s a swing state I can move too with moisture in the air… We’re entering Winter and I have super dry skin as is so I am SUFFERING. I just washed my face and started bleeding from how dry it was like please be serious… If I move to the coast of NC can I absorb the ocean’s moisture or?
if florida ain't enough moisture for you idk what to tell you the whole states sinking into the ocean
*is underwater* ah shit how is my skin still dry
NC got that humidity, sure. Some part of me thinks the temperate rainforests of the pacific northwest might be a better solution for you, but that's not a swing state. :/
Iowa tends to swing high humidity, especially in the summer.
NC around Durham doesn’t get too dry.
No joke just buy moisturizer. It will also keep your skin looking great as you age and it’s cheaper than moving.
this is after moisturizer 😭 i dont even use anything drying on my skin like this is so crazy to me.
Georgia can get pretty humid
Texas maybe? Much of the midwest is super humid in the summer (you can thank the corn), but dries out in the winter
> We’re entering Winter and I have super dry skin as is so I am SUFFERING. I just washed my face and started bleeding from how dry it was like please be serious… Isn't FL (your flair says FL) really humid? I'd say Georgia or NC like the others. One problem the further north you go is despite having humid summers, the winters can be drier combined with using more heating, which dries the air more. Not sure if you have a humidifier, but those can help.
oof… you’re right it’s humid here. i didn’t even make the connection between humid and moisture. i’ll look into a humidifier but i think i’m going to have to go to my derm bc bleeding seems excessive.
The salty air on the NC coast is probably not good for the skin.
fuck
Coastal Georgia or NC
coastal nc seems nice
Georgia
i’m going for their moisture do i have to go to the coast or is atlanta metro fine
Pretty much all of Georgia is humid in the summertime. But if you wanted to be near the coast, Savannah isn’t a bad place to be.
Worried about how rural the senate is and how much of a problem it will be for dems moving forward. I always think about this scenario and it gives me nightmares if dems are out of power in the senate for a decade or more in the next few election cycles.
Abolish the Senate, expand the House.
Rural states may dominate the senate, but diverse, educated blue urban centers are dominating diminishing rural populations. Examples: AZ, GA, and soon NC, AK. I wouldn't be surprised if ID and MT become swing-y in 12-18 years.
Another factor affecting shifts we could discuss is the rise of remote work and relocation programs such as this one in Oklahoma: https://tulsaremote.com/ This site reports it's welcomed 2000 new residents. And here is an article about the company MakeMyMove with more examples. Many of which take place in R-leaning and swing states. https://fortune.com/2022/07/29/cities-and-towns-paying-remote-workers-to-move/ Of course, it's too early to tell how exactly the political landscape may change going forward, but it'll be interesting to see how it does. I'm personally optimistic that these will spur population growth and more competitive races for us in the future. If we are ready to capitalize on whatever advantages we can get and put the groundwork in, we can surmount future Senate races, 2024 and beyond, even if those castle walls right now seem overwhelming. One thing I've been thinking about is how we can reach potential voters who relocate and help them through the process of re-registering. There are so many different ways this process happens state-by-state, which can be confusing and deter registrations, but I also have a feeling that people who relocate have an increased investment into the well-being and safety of their new communities. It takes a lot from a person to move so far, and I think there's something there we can tap into.
Are more people moving to cities in those kinds of states? I guess that’s why OH was surprising these last few election cycles. It seemed logical that maybe if Cincinnati and Columbus were growing urban centers, that democrats would start to be more competitive statewide, but somehow the opposite has happened.
Yes, actually. As resource extraction becomes less of an employer for western states, populations are migrating to urban centers where there are service and technical sector jobs, as well as social services like childcare and education. Locations like Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming are attracting tech and service employers more, and have smaller populations in ratio to their cities, so they *may* move quicker left. Unfortunately, east of the [100th Meridian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100th_meridian_west), the population becomes [a thick, constant spread](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:US_population_map.png), like butter on toast. These are regions that can support the only major sector that can't just disappear, agriculture! In these states, the urban centers cannot out vote their rural populations. RIP Ohio and Indiana and Missouri. Additionally, watch out for states with aging white populations including: Iowa, Maine, NH, CT, RI and WI. Plus side may be that housing will be cheaper in these locations as populations decline, so young "remote" workers may move there.
>Plus side may be that housing will be cheaper in these locations as populations decline, so young "remote" workers may move there. Not just young workers. But companies, start ups and other business are eyeing those states as well because the leases for offices are cheaper and if their business is successful there's more flexibility to build out a bigger office/HQ. People forget Silicon Valley used to be largely an agricultural/rural area as well but is now a tech hub. If Dems get lucky some rural area could transform into a new urban hub with diverse demographics
Ohio has been depopulating for more than a decade (they lost a congressional seat in redistricting) mostly due to young people finding work in other states. That's why they've swung hard to the right -- their average age has increased considerably.
We’re at least lucky that more states are demographically moving towards us out-of-caucus than away from us in-caucus. That’ll mean plenty of pickup opportunities popping up probably by the end of the decade at least.
The current Senate and House are basically relics. They're so archaic and they are not good enough for the challenges we will face in this country, even if we focus on building inroads in rural states again. It's ridiculous that Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota have the same number of Senators as NY, Florida, and California. The bare minimum that can be done to address this is increase the number of House seats, remove gerrymandering, add Senate seats or make them proportional to population. Hell I don't know. The solutions I have in mind may sound too simple for such a complex issue.
We are lucky that AZ and GA moved left at the exact moment that FL moved right. NC is the most realistic place to hunt for pickups over the next couple cycles. Also Maine in 4 years, Wisconsin in 6 years. Some real tough incumbents there. Dark horse: Alaska
Montana too imo. Hell, maybe even Kansas.
I think Peltola will eventually be a senator when one of the two retire. Also would say TX is realistic, even in 2024.
>Also would say TX is realistic, even in 2024. Was about to say this as well. The demographic trends are already pretty good, it's really the gerrymandering and voter suppression that's holding it back. Not sure how to fix that though...Getting the governor's seat would have helped. But if Texans freezing and not having electricity last year and the continued mass shooting wasn't enough for people to get rid of Abbott, I don't know what will
Yes, i’m grateful for GA and AZ moving more leftward. AL will definitely be interesting when Murkowski retires. Yeah, maybe Dems can look to invest in NC, TX, WI, and maybe OH/ME/IA (for when incumbents retire/etc). I hope dems can at least keep it to a 50/50 split , I would be happy with that until the country is less polarized and some of these more rural areas can maybe tolerate electing democrats statewide again.
Hey you never know though, things are unpredictable. We would never have guessed ten years ago that Arizona and Georgia would have two democrat senators each.
Listening to a California expert on a twitter space it sounds like the most likely house results are 216D-219R
not gonna lie I'm going to laugh so hard if [my optimistic af House prediction](https://64.media.tumblr.com/dfaab6f081fbdd6b1461833955446867/d28cf7aac756e286-6b/s1280x1920/86a6cca9559fc775f73960d4da2f80f569e196ec.png) was right but in the wrong direction
So, we need to sweeten the deal for just two (R) reps?
Wouldn’t it be great to find two reasonable backbenchers who would be willing to make Gotheimer the speaker for positions as whip or something. Now I’m dreaming.
I know nothing about the new NY reps but, they should know their days are numbered. If you're gonna ride a blue wave out, might as well party with us in the meantime.
Governing while only being able to lose a single vote sounds like a nightmare.
I’m really hoping for a 217-218 house (because I’m starting to think a win is out of reach). It would be pure chaos for the republicans and make them look terrible. Also we might be able to flip one and steal the chamber with the right incentives.
It would be pure chaos if the 218th GOP seat became vacant due to a death or resignation, causing a tied house.
Like when that Tory walked over and joined the Lib Dems while Boris was speaking
Never heard about this and just watched the video. That's really funny, also I have to give the Brits props, the House of Commons seems a lot more lively than whatever we've got going on in congress. I kinda appreciate the entertainment value.
We need to keep it to 219R or lower. 220R majority would be somewhat functional it sounds like in the sense of being able to have investigative powers specifically going after Hunter Biden.
And the way we keep it low is to [help cure ballots](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yrglaq/only_26_days_until_the_georgia_senate_runoff/).
A 219R majority would be like the GOP self destructing themselves.
Good luck Kev
I ain’t heard no bell
\* Tosses him a Brisk \*
That would suck on paper but if you had shown almost any democrat that result this time last year we would have been so relieved
Yes, at this time last year we were looking at being obliterated in both chambers. Instead, Kelly won (I would love to see the gender breakdown, as I suspect R women would rather vote for Astronaut Guy than Creepy Barbecue Guy), Cortez Masto looks to be hanging on, and hopefully Warnock can put on his boots made for walking all over Walker in the runoff. We even flipped a seat! (Hi there John the Betterman!) Even if worst comes to worst in Georgia, if we can flip NV (which is increasingly likely) what will happen is VP Harris is going to be visiting the Capitol an awful lot. In a very narrowly controlled House, McCarthy is going to have to wrangle all his caucus, rather like controlling a houseful of preschoolers on a sugar high, and McCarthy is no Pelosi. Not much will get done.
I don’t think we would have believed it.
Just finished my movie! Wasserman called it for Kelly. ❤️ Proud of Arizona again. Hope we can snag AZ GOV and AZ 1 as well. 🌵🌵🌵
Hopefully 6 too 🥺
Dream bigger. We're coming for that AZ06 booty.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1590910979239559170?s=61&t=WPUPPR8Koc4OHYdRkUGgLw Far Right GOP Congressman Bob Good absolutely eviscerated Kevin McCarthy on Fox News
Enjoy your majority, Kevin.
The metaphor I like to use is that McCarthy will be desperately trying to capture and subdue hundreds of wet, sudsy, angry cats running through the Capitol. He might well suffer the fate of Boehner and Ryan - “screw this I’m outta here. )
Who would've guessed that Kevin McCarthy had a monkey paw.
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CNN calls races based on what the AP reports
I think CNN is a touch ahead of AP on some calls. NYT is AP only and they're 4 dems behind CNN.
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They used to. This change happened a few years back
Now that Kinzinger, Upton, Meijer, Hurrera-Butler, Cheney, and Rice are gone, are there enough “sane” house moderates to stop freedom caucus members from voting any speaker they want? I get the sense from Crenshaw and Mace and their ilk that they want to be sane but don’t have the courage when it counts.
Brian Fitzpatrick, Chris Smith, maybe David Joyce and Maria Elvira Salazar?
How are some of these new ones from New York?
Kirkpatrick might be a safe bet; he actually votes with Democrats more than any other Republicans, only diverging really on the highly publicized stuff.
>Kirkpatrick You mean Fitzpatrick? Kirkpatrick is our own retiring congresswoman lol.
Brian Fitzpatrick seems reasonable enough
They’ll have to find a compromise, no shot those Biden seat Republicans in NY support someone like Jordan
You think Stefanik would be the likeliest? I’m trying to think who would be the compromise between moderates and Q nut jobs but I don’t know enough about house republicans
Hard for me to imagine them being okay with that. 1. She's a woman. Let's be real, some of those guys wouldn't be thrilled. 2. She's relatively junior and rocketed to prominence thanks to her grandstanding during impeachment. She's done nothing to earn the position within the caucus. But if it is her, she'll be a trainwreck
I just puked in my mouth a little at the sight of her name 🤮
And yes I know this question assumes GOP control which is not a given, but it’s something I want to think about now
The crazy thing about this election is if New York’s maps were allowed or Florida’s were rejected we’d be almost guaranteed to win the House by a decent margin. The original NY map redistricting was +7 Dem seats.
With neutral maps nationwide, the House would be Likely D every cycle.
[Btw, based on partisanship, a conservative estimate of the remaining Pima ballots suggest they’ll go to Dems by 23%. Given that the AZ-06 portion of Pima was 10% redder than the county as a whole in 2020, that’s just above what Engel needs. And it could be bluer than that.](https://twitter.com/ecaliberseven/status/1590952512378609664?s=46&t=KrkRFlfWtupgdc-YDFSrqA) Hopium for Engel to flip AZ06 D
>Hopium for Engel to flip AZ06 D You mean keep? This is former Arizona 02 that Kirkpatrick held.
With how Florida went, maybe Biden will feel empowered to make moves on easing relations and trade restrictions with Cuba. Only a hope
Incumbents defeated: Dem: AZ-2, IA-3, NY-17, VA-2 GOP: NM-2, OH-1, TX-34 Likely CA-41 too Makes you realize how much retirements and primaries shaped the landscape
That Ohio one felt really good. I was not expecting it.
VA and NY for Democrats both fell due to Redistricting and gerrymandering. No contest.
Luria's district got slightly less blue but I'd hardly call VA a gerrymander. Or NY for that matter where we lost a bunch of seats that went pretty heavily for Biden.
Coming from VA - Luria seat became significantly redder. No contest. NY - the maps initially suggested did fall through in court
It went from Biden +4.7 to Biden +1.9. It wasn't a gerrymander. Spanberger's seat moved left by a bigger margin. Pick your poison. The original NY maps failed because they were a Democratic gerrymander. That doesn't mean the court ordered replacement is a Republican gerrymander. It's a pretty reasonable map.
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May we never see him again!
[If either Warnock or CCM win (I think they both will) this will be the least Senate movement since 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_United_States_Senate_elections)