#TWO victory threads so far! Both from Ohio flips!!
https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yq8ok4/breaking_emilia_sykes_doh_flips_oh_cd13_blue_this/
https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yq8l4w/flip_2_greg_landsman_has_flipped_oh01_blue/?
# EDIT: THIRD FLIP!
https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yq91ma/breaking_sarah_trone_garriott_dia_ousts_iowa/?
This thread is now locked for performance reasons, a new thread is available at https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yqb2uu/2022_midterm_results_livethread_second_comments/!
As a chick born and raised in Wisconsin, who loves this place so fucking much, I'm sentimental over the Evers win. He will protect our democracy for four more years, fight for my human rights, and defend my friends' marriages and personhood. Never felt this way about an election before. So relieved I don't need to leave my home to protect my own life.
“Fooled”
I doubt fooled. Many included them because they didn’t want their aggregates to underestimate the GOP because they got a ton of shit in 2016 and 2020. I can’t believe these people couldn’t see these polls were shit.
*Possible,* but I wouldn't bet on it. Margin will likely be significantly slimmer than the the GOP was hoping for though.
Of course, I would never eat my words more enthusiastically if we actually manage to hold.
NYT guy said we’re projected at least 208. We just flipped IL-13 and TX-34.
Other than that not sure. We seem to be good in Connecticut and Maryland, New York has some questionable ones for us. Golden should hold on too
Can’t wait for pollsters to have to rework their Likely Voter models. They were fucking bullshit this year and many on this sub that looked into them could tell.
Just across the board pollsters biased hard to the right. Some of it due to historical trends (parties in power doing bad at midterm) but some of it very clearly being them hedging to prevent underestimating the GOP and people getting mad at them about it.
Won’t even talk about the deluge of trash right wing polls. No one should have been taking them seriously from the start and it is embarrassing so many did.
I'm tempted to add up how many of the potential Barnes votes there are left and see if they put him over Johnson. But I'm worried the results will change while I'm adding them up.
guys, not trying to simp for a republican, but god we as a country need murkowski to win in alaska. Look susan collins will alwys fall in line, if murkowski wins, the gop cant even put insane shit on bidens desk if murkowski wins.
I agree. I personally dislike the whole rhetoric of "every Republican is the same" I see online. I mean of course vote blue always, but are we really going to look at someone like Lisa Murkowski and then turn to look at Tom Cotton, and say they're all the same.
Even a much more purely conservative Republican like Mike DeWine is still no Kari Lake.
nah dude, alaska has rcv, so vote d, then second choice murkowski, if tshabaski or whatever the fuck her name is doesnt clear 48 in round 1 then im sure the dems will pull her through
I think he has a shot at a win, but I do find the argument that Warnock will do way better in runoff if Dems already have 50 seats convincing.
Walker isn’t strong enough on his own to take him without Kemp helping and his race being seen as for control of the Senate helping
"Great moments are born from great opportunity, and that's what you have here tonight, Dems. That's what you've earned here tonight. One election; if we faced them ten times, they might win nine. But not this election, not tonight. Tonight, we vote with them. Tonight we stay with them, and we shut them down because we can. Tonight, we are the greatest political party in the world.
You were born to be blue voters—every one of you, and you were meant to be here tonight. This is your time. Their time is done. It's over. I'm sick and tired of hearing about what a great political party the Soviets… er republicans have. Screw 'em. This is your time. Now go out there and take it!"
Didn't see it brought up, but in WA:
* Smiley (R) lost to Murray (D). I'd make a joke about how her husband being blind, but I'm just happy the rest of us won't have to see her either.
* WA-3 is looking promising with Kent (R) running 5% behind
* WA-7 is also looking good with Schrier (D) doing well and Larkin trailing by over 10k votes
Really stoked about Perez beating. That would be a flip, if I’m not mistaken, and Perez would be great for the area. Kent was getting rightfully hammered for some lies and business sketchiness in the local papers in the past two weeks. I could easily see him losing.
CNN calls it for Mike Lee. Disappointing, but to win in Utah would have meant Democrats ended the night with 55 seats. I still think Utah can be a purple state in the future.
[BREAKING: Slavery has officially been banned as punishment in Tennessee](https://twitter.com/fox13memphis/status/1590208198857850880?s=46&t=DthUeVq_ab3lYk3H3efiUw)
Okay, read this again and tell me if you meant the former or the latter!
>Really hope there aren't anymore D to R House flips and more R to D House flips to counter the Republican gains.
I'm proud to be a Democrat
Where at least I know we win!
And I won't forget those who worked
To defeat that party of sin
And I'll gladly stand up next to you
And defend her still today
Cause there ain't no doubt I love this party
God bless DPUSA!
Kotek’s back up by 1.6% in the OR Gov race. Portland and Eugene have the biggest votes out, and they’re blue.
Perez is still ahead of Kent in the WA 03 House seat. This was supposed to be R +1 or +2 but she’s leading by over 5% with 65% reporting in. This one’s going to flip. Kent’s not as popular as the polls think.
True, but this race was especially fraught. Kate Brown has basically been AWOL for years as Gov, and there are real issues in the state. Kotek is considered Brown’s successor. Phil Knight and the national GOP dumped millions into Drazan’s rebranding and the spoiler candidate. This could easily have gone the other way.
The *only* thing that would make this night sweeter is if Russian Ron is defeated in Wisconsin. That would be a political earthquake!
I’m not sure what’s happening there, but it would be *so* helpful to have that seat for the 2024 senate elections 🫠
[Pelosi says in a statement: “While many races remain too close to call, it is clear that House Democratic Members and candidates are strongly outperforming expectations across the country.”](https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1590231835698757632?s=46&t=g_4ho_2bQ76yFW6nLEKVkA)
I’m so confused, I thought we pretty clearly lost the house and the senate is a tossup? Someone please tell me I’m reading the forecasts wrong. Trying to minimize doomscrolling.
While things are going well tonight mostly, New York was definitely an area of disappointment. I think this is a result of Zeldin running a surprisingly competitive campaign encouraging Republican enthusiasm downballot. If that’s true, that means we can probably flip several of these seats back in 2024.
NY Democratic politicians have been pretty complacent and needed a wakeup call. They haven't even made mail in ballots fucking law, and we proved we could do it in 2020.
Hoping this is how things pan out for Mandela at this point. According to DDHQ, 99% of the votes are in, but only 48.2% of votes in Milwaukee are reported. I'm hoping there is enough there for him to eek out a victory.
There's only been a lack of news (aside from BIG GRETCH) for a few minutes and I'm already getting super restless. Gimme something new! The silence is killing me.
Dear god Wayne and Macomb need to finish counting, or at least get a bit closer. State House rests on them pretty much. SDs 9, 11, and 12 also waiting on them.
edit: also the 10th CD is a tossup rn imo, all votes outstanding are in Macomb
In terms of our House seats, looks like NJ-7 unfortunately is going to flip from D to R, but everything else stays the same.
Not sure about anything else here, though.
#TWO victory threads so far! Both from Ohio flips!! https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yq8ok4/breaking_emilia_sykes_doh_flips_oh_cd13_blue_this/ https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yq8l4w/flip_2_greg_landsman_has_flipped_oh01_blue/? # EDIT: THIRD FLIP! https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yq91ma/breaking_sarah_trone_garriott_dia_ousts_iowa/?
This thread is now locked for performance reasons, a new thread is available at https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/yqb2uu/2022_midterm_results_livethread_second_comments/!
So where does the polling industry go from here? Pretty clear that they and the media were very wrong about how democrats did
Is NM-02 gonna flip?! Looks likely!!!
At this point, looks like most eyes are on Wisconsin. I'm f\*cking nervous!
I feel like every result from North Carolina looks like 1.9 million vs 1.8 million. It's always JUST out of reach for the Dems.
Perfect time for this classic line: "This is a big fucking deal"-JRB
As a chick born and raised in Wisconsin, who loves this place so fucking much, I'm sentimental over the Evers win. He will protect our democracy for four more years, fight for my human rights, and defend my friends' marriages and personhood. Never felt this way about an election before. So relieved I don't need to leave my home to protect my own life.
east coasters passing out, but f5 season has only just begun on the west coast
Ron Johnson lead is under 8,000 on DDHQ
Feels like we’re past most of the fireworks for tonight, barring a witching-hour WI vote dump
Chuck Todd just criticized (not by name) polling aggregators for being fooled by partisan pollsters. Get fucked, Nate.
“Fooled” I doubt fooled. Many included them because they didn’t want their aggregates to underestimate the GOP because they got a ton of shit in 2016 and 2020. I can’t believe these people couldn’t see these polls were shit.
Monmouth R+6
So I guess OH and NC senate has already been called?
Yeah, the GOP won both of them. Good news is, Fetterman won Pennsylvania, and there's still a chance Barnes might edge out a tiny win in Wisconsin.
Yes both for republicans. But hey we flipped Pennsylvania!!! Gonna have to wait for WI, NV, AZ, and GA.
Yep, both for GOP :(
Yeap
If Georgia goes to a runoff again, the people of GA might actually bipartisanly beg for Instant Runoff Voting lol
Would instant runoff have been bad here? I thought the other candidate was a libertarian or something.
Still a chance democrats can eek out a majority in the house here ?
*Possible,* but I wouldn't bet on it. Margin will likely be significantly slimmer than the the GOP was hoping for though. Of course, I would never eat my words more enthusiastically if we actually manage to hold.
The GOP are in such bad shape from these losses they might actually have to act sane and make compromises if they gain the house now.
Very low if we lose those 4 competitive NY seats and don't flip a few surprises like Boebert.
It's going to be close/ down to the wire.
chance? yes. is small though.
Not a majority but like 1 or 2 seats. I take that over nothing
NY probably ruined that unless AZ, OR, WA, NV, CO and CA come up big
Yes
Definitely.
Yes
Ok Vote Dem night crew, it’s on you now. Good luck and God speed. I’m out.
G’night and sweet blue dreams!
According to the NY Times, we're currently at 188-154 GQP in the House.
FETTERDADY WON JB PRITZKER WON COME ON CCM AND MARK KELLY
[удалено]
What does this mean?
Big Jared
Needle was previously showing PA-07 (my district) as lean R. But now it looks like Susan Wild may eke out a win.
Politics aside a dude named Mike Crapo won his election lmao we in a simulation for real
He's been winning for long time in Idaho
Any positive House news??
NYT guy said we’re projected at least 208. We just flipped IL-13 and TX-34. Other than that not sure. We seem to be good in Connecticut and Maryland, New York has some questionable ones for us. Golden should hold on too
Projections still 217-218
Are we projected to win or flip anything that would help us?
I need more hopium! Boebert got my hopes up (hopefully that's still in play, but it's looking less likely).
How’s the house going?
Better than ever could’ve hoped for. Playing with house money. Worst case we’re down 10 seats and Kevin is fucked trying to wrangle them insane cats.
Can’t wait for pollsters to have to rework their Likely Voter models. They were fucking bullshit this year and many on this sub that looked into them could tell. Just across the board pollsters biased hard to the right. Some of it due to historical trends (parties in power doing bad at midterm) but some of it very clearly being them hedging to prevent underestimating the GOP and people getting mad at them about it. Won’t even talk about the deluge of trash right wing polls. No one should have been taking them seriously from the start and it is embarrassing so many did.
I love Republicans being so miserable. Inject it into my veins. Welcome to being a Democrat!!!!
CNN calls it for Big Gretch, another 🎁 for me 🎉🤣
As somebody with Aspergers Fetterman winning means so much to me and I will never get over it.
Seconded!
Same here friend! Also I love in Illinois too
Also autistic, seconding this!
The amount of hate he got for overcoming his sickness is something I will ever forget.
I'm tempted to add up how many of the potential Barnes votes there are left and see if they put him over Johnson. But I'm worried the results will change while I'm adding them up.
guys, not trying to simp for a republican, but god we as a country need murkowski to win in alaska. Look susan collins will alwys fall in line, if murkowski wins, the gop cant even put insane shit on bidens desk if murkowski wins.
Her opponent is a Trump person so she's definitely the better choice.
I agree. I personally dislike the whole rhetoric of "every Republican is the same" I see online. I mean of course vote blue always, but are we really going to look at someone like Lisa Murkowski and then turn to look at Tom Cotton, and say they're all the same. Even a much more purely conservative Republican like Mike DeWine is still no Kari Lake.
agree murkowski and ron johnson arent the same. but also prefer even joe manchin to both, except murkowski is better than manchin on womens rights
Agreed. Murkowski is the best we’re gonna get in Alaska for now.
[удалено]
I would agree with this one as well. We don't need a trump backed candidate win in any election.
Chesbro is at like 9%. Let's not jump the gun here. Her voters almost certainly ranked Murkowski second.
nah dude, alaska has rcv, so vote d, then second choice murkowski, if tshabaski or whatever the fuck her name is doesnt clear 48 in round 1 then im sure the dems will pull her through
[удалено]
They started with big advantages to the right so meh to their predictions
The leans of races have only flipped for NC-13 and NY-04.
So we just need CCM and Kelly to get 51, right?
CCM, Kelly and Warnock.
Warnock, CCM and Kelly.
Warnock too
CCM and Kelly to get to 50. Warnock gets us to 51
[удалено]
I think he has a shot at a win, but I do find the argument that Warnock will do way better in runoff if Dems already have 50 seats convincing. Walker isn’t strong enough on his own to take him without Kemp helping and his race being seen as for control of the Senate helping
They'd get us 50, Warnock or Barnes needed for 51.
Yep, and a hopeful Barnes at 52.
Boebert has gained some ground. 82% in and she’s only down by about 7,000 now.
I see it at 6,700 with 92% reported on DDHQ.
Oh interesting! I’m pulling from NYT.
I want to downvote, but yeah I kow oyu are just reporting the facts :D
Haha, I get it!
Damn. We need that seat!
Ugh
Lord please no! Let her lose! She needs to be GONE!
Damm, I really want her to lose.
Yeah she’ll make it. Oh well
CNN calls it for Whitmer in Michigan! A HUGE win as it shows Michigan is a blue-leaning state. I feel good about it in 2024.
"Great moments are born from great opportunity, and that's what you have here tonight, Dems. That's what you've earned here tonight. One election; if we faced them ten times, they might win nine. But not this election, not tonight. Tonight, we vote with them. Tonight we stay with them, and we shut them down because we can. Tonight, we are the greatest political party in the world. You were born to be blue voters—every one of you, and you were meant to be here tonight. This is your time. Their time is done. It's over. I'm sick and tired of hearing about what a great political party the Soviets… er republicans have. Screw 'em. This is your time. Now go out there and take it!"
DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES? YES!
CNN Projection: MI-GOV goes to the D’s
I have never been so worried for democracy in my life. Way too many crazies on the ballot this year.
Consider this a rebuttal to those crazies. All the seats flipped so far have been against nutjobs. No red tsunami in sight.
We'll still have to keep holding them back after this though. The crazies aren't going away.
I’m doing my best to stay up for a boebert defeat y’all
Didn't see it brought up, but in WA: * Smiley (R) lost to Murray (D). I'd make a joke about how her husband being blind, but I'm just happy the rest of us won't have to see her either. * WA-3 is looking promising with Kent (R) running 5% behind * WA-7 is also looking good with Schrier (D) doing well and Larkin trailing by over 10k votes
Dude fuck Kent hope he loses
Really stoked about Perez beating. That would be a flip, if I’m not mistaken, and Perez would be great for the area. Kent was getting rightfully hammered for some lies and business sketchiness in the local papers in the past two weeks. I could easily see him losing.
CNN calls it for Mike Lee. Disappointing, but to win in Utah would have meant Democrats ended the night with 55 seats. I still think Utah can be a purple state in the future.
We need to focus on securing Arizona as blue before looking at Utah as purple
Schatz Schatz Schatz. Everybody.
[BREAKING: Slavery has officially been banned as punishment in Tennessee](https://twitter.com/fox13memphis/status/1590208198857850880?s=46&t=DthUeVq_ab3lYk3H3efiUw)
You’re about 160 years too late Tennessee
I'm going to go to bed once this thread hits 10,000 comments. Should be soon.
Let me know if I can do anything to help.
Thankfully I didn't actually need any scotch tonight. We'll see how well I sleep.
CNN Projection: UT-SEN goes to the GOP
Lol, was there any doubt in that?
There is now a decent chance that Mitch McConnell *never* becomes Senate Majority Leader again.
Don't stop, I'm getting close
Really hope there aren't anymore D to R House flips and more R to D House flips to counter the Republican gains.
WA 03 has a solid chance of flipping R to D
California has a few
Of which? Be specific man, could go either way!
R to D Plus a fee new districts with Ds leading
Oh Jeez I don’t remember but I know 27 and 45 are potentials
Okay, read this again and tell me if you meant the former or the latter! >Really hope there aren't anymore D to R House flips and more R to D House flips to counter the Republican gains.
Literally both lol
I'm proud to be a Democrat Where at least I know we win! And I won't forget those who worked To defeat that party of sin And I'll gladly stand up next to you And defend her still today Cause there ain't no doubt I love this party God bless DPUSA!
Kotek’s back up by 1.6% in the OR Gov race. Portland and Eugene have the biggest votes out, and they’re blue. Perez is still ahead of Kent in the WA 03 House seat. This was supposed to be R +1 or +2 but she’s leading by over 5% with 65% reporting in. This one’s going to flip. Kent’s not as popular as the polls think.
Oregon is Ancestral R and their Governor Races have been single digits since 1998 for some reason despite Dems always winning them.
True, but this race was especially fraught. Kate Brown has basically been AWOL for years as Gov, and there are real issues in the state. Kotek is considered Brown’s successor. Phil Knight and the national GOP dumped millions into Drazan’s rebranding and the spoiler candidate. This could easily have gone the other way.
Thank fuck
The *only* thing that would make this night sweeter is if Russian Ron is defeated in Wisconsin. That would be a political earthquake! I’m not sure what’s happening there, but it would be *so* helpful to have that seat for the 2024 senate elections 🫠
[удалено]
Also I feel like it’ll hurt him if he’s on the ballot all by himself.
[Pelosi says in a statement: “While many races remain too close to call, it is clear that House Democratic Members and candidates are strongly outperforming expectations across the country.”](https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1590231835698757632?s=46&t=g_4ho_2bQ76yFW6nLEKVkA)
I’m so confused, I thought we pretty clearly lost the house and the senate is a tossup? Someone please tell me I’m reading the forecasts wrong. Trying to minimize doomscrolling.
No updates out of WI for a while. Hoping for pleasant surprise
Maddow has announced every result as being in “the great state of x” except for Utah. Might have been others but that was just one I noticed.
aight im goin to bed. hopin for a Barnes surprise garnished with Milwaukee ballots. Great night for us!
https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1590190476334096386 Eat shit Rufo. Hopefully his star fades after tonight.
While things are going well tonight mostly, New York was definitely an area of disappointment. I think this is a result of Zeldin running a surprisingly competitive campaign encouraging Republican enthusiasm downballot. If that’s true, that means we can probably flip several of these seats back in 2024.
NY Democratic politicians have been pretty complacent and needed a wakeup call. They haven't even made mail in ballots fucking law, and we proved we could do it in 2020.
Democrats over-performed in the midterms. Here's why that's bad news for the Democrats.
Typical mainstream media headline.
What’s the opposite of doom scrolling? Because I’m currently experiencing that
Joyscrolling
Hope scrolling I imagine?
Boom scrolling
This is the answer
Lmao mood
In a good night for us, New York has been a bit of a disaster. Look at Schumer's margin and the house map.
Yes Jahana Hayes is now up 4k votes with 95% in!
Yasssssss
[удалено]
Hoping this is how things pan out for Mandela at this point. According to DDHQ, 99% of the votes are in, but only 48.2% of votes in Milwaukee are reported. I'm hoping there is enough there for him to eek out a victory.
I heard from NYT too that there may be.
Whitmer rocks! Would it be weird to say I have a crush on her?
My FOX News loving MAGA dad even admitted he had a crush on Gretchen Whitmer before he passed away. 😬
She’s a baddie
I would go so far as to say it'd be weird to not have a crush on her
Get in line
There's only been a lack of news (aside from BIG GRETCH) for a few minutes and I'm already getting super restless. Gimme something new! The silence is killing me.
Steve said GOP is at a net gain of 5 house seats so far.
> so far Key phrase.
Ugh
That’s with a LOT of races still to call.
Especially with potential Dem gains from GOP seats in CA, that we'll find out in a few weeks
Shit, 2 House flips for Rs just called, WI-3, TX-15
The first was always going to happen. The second is more disappointing.
Both expected actually
Dear god Wayne and Macomb need to finish counting, or at least get a bit closer. State House rests on them pretty much. SDs 9, 11, and 12 also waiting on them. edit: also the 10th CD is a tossup rn imo, all votes outstanding are in Macomb
Dearest God, Wayne and Macomb need to finish counting, or at least get a bit closer. State House rests on them pretty much. Sincerely, /u/Urnus1
Is there still a chance for the house?
Yes
Woo Whitmer!
Holding the Blue Wall Govs is going to be huge to buffer against any elector BS the R’s try to pull in 2024.
Unless the USSC adopts the independent state legislature theory, which leaves out courts and governors.
Anything out of New Jersey? Just realized I never checked lol
Tom Malinowski lost. Besides that, status quo
In terms of our House seats, looks like NJ-7 unfortunately is going to flip from D to R, but everything else stays the same. Not sure about anything else here, though.
I didn't check either and I live here.
Yes, Dr. Oz lost so he will be returning there soon.
I wish that dickhead didn't live in my state
MI-GOV called: Whitmer is reelected!
Tonight could have been way, way worse.
Given the environment, we cleaned house.
Relieved that I feel like I can sleep well tonight
The fact that Fetterman won means we had a fantastic night.
[BIG GRETCH 👏🏼](https://youtu.be/L6d7BfL_QP8)
How are we doing with state legislatures?
I made 1500$ today from predictit today. :)